(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:06 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

URNT12 KNHC 190446
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/04:32:40Z
B. 16 deg 52 min N
081 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 516 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 116 deg 162 kt
G. 15 deg 003 nm
H. EXTRAP 901 mb
I. 17 C/ 1537 m
J. 26 C/ 1557 m
K. 25 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C4
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0724A WILMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 162 KT NE QUAD 04:31:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB

YEP.... AND I THINK SHE WILL KEEP GOING.... i am going with 890mb

like clark said

adv out
1 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS 150 MPH WINDS IN WILMA...

REPEATING THE 1 AM EDT POSITION...16.9 N... 82.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 901 MB.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:10 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

incase you don't know

HURRICANE WILMA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND THE FORECAST
INTENSITY OF WILMA. AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 162 KNOTS AT
850 MB AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 901 MB IN A PINHOLE EYE. WILMA IS
NOW A VERY STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AND COULD BECOME A
CATEGORY FIVE TODAY. NO CHANGE IN TRACK IS NECESSARY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0500Z 16.9N 82.0W 130 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.2N 83.1W 135 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 18.1N 84.2W 135 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 19.2N 85.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 20.4N 85.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 85.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 26.0N 81.0W 90 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/0000Z 33.0N 72.0W 75 KT

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:11 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

What is causing this degree of intensity. What kinds of conditions are present that would cause this? Also how long could this storm hold this intensity? Did it hit a loop current of warm water? Is it being caused by the conditions out of the Northern plains?

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:12 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

man... poor people are going to wake in a few hours and find out they went to bed with a cane and wake to a monster...... from a cat 2 to i think a cat 5 by 5am... cat 4 right now... but not far from a cat 5

superfly

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:13 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

Quote:

What is causing this degree of intensity. What kinds of conditions are present that would cause this? Also how long could this storm hold this intensity? Did it hit a loop current of warm water? Is it being caused by the conditions out of the Northern plains?

The western Caribbean heat content is very high this time of year and has been virtually untapped since Emily. Wilma is also in an area of very little upper level shear. The development of such a small pinhole eye (could be the smallest on record) also tightens the winds tremendously. The only inhibiting factor is the dry air in the Gulf but Wilma's moisture envelope is so large that that does not seem to be a big factor at this point.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:17 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

well.... models haven't changed much in new 00z runs

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

BriahH

(Registered User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:19 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

History question: When is the last time there has been a storm this intense in the atlantic basin in october?

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:20 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

I'm guessing that this is cat 5 right now, though there is not ay evidence of it from the limited data we have from the plane so far. 162 knots at 850mb corresponds to 130 knots at the surface using the usual 20% reduction. Stronger winds may exist in the NW quadrant and it isn't clear yet whether the 20% reduction is even appropriate in this case.

I mentioned this in the previous thread, but the dropsonde in the NE eyewall measured 943 mb. A 42mb pressure difference between eye and eyewall seems extreme, so there could be a QC issue with the recon pressure, which was extrapolated. On the other hand, the observed winds support a system of that intensity.

SirCane

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:21 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

This year has been NUTS!!! Rita, Katrina, and Wilma, all woman names ending in A and all broke pressure records and all are in the top 5 in all time intensity. ALL IN ONE SEASON! INSANE!

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:23 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

What effect will the intensity have on the track of the storm, if any ? Seems like there must be a possible effect.. Wonder what this will do to the models as they all had this storm much weaker and this must also be a player in the environment surrounding this storm. I was always told the stronger the storm, the more abt it was to move polar. Any comments ?

superfly

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:24 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

Quote:

History question: When is the last time there has been a storm this intense in the atlantic basin in october?

Hurricane Mitch reached 180MPH and 905mb on October 26 in 1998.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:25 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

WOW...... CHECK THIS OUT!!!!

URNT14 KNHC 190515
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01186 10809 12467 11716 11051
02184 20811 22446 21616 12053
03182 30812 32438 31515 12059
04180 40814 42419 41816 12058
05178 50816 52397 51717 12063
06176 60817 62369 61616 12073
07173 70817 72328 71818 12052
08171 80818 82279 81919 12062
MF169 M0819 MF162
OBS 01 AT 03:54:00Z
OBS 08 AT 04:27:20Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01166 10820 13941 11212 28043
02164 20822 23980 21210 30035
03163 30824 33007 31010 31048
04161 40827 43032 41010 32050
05160 50828 53049 50707 32046
06158 60830 63065 60808 29042
07156 70832 73070 70808 32046
MF168 M0819 MF140
OBS 01 AT 04:38:00Z
OBS 07 AT 05:05:00Z
OBS 07 SFC WND /////
AF308 0724A WILMA OB 10
INITIATED CLIMB TO 700MB IN EYE OF HURRICANE FOR SAFETY

She has got to be a cat 5..... VERY DANGEROUS flying sounds like....turbulence must be real bad!!!

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:26 AM

New Category

I'm back. I saw the HDOB and thought something was wrong.
The Flt level wind speeds, went from 66kts to 162kts and back to 53kts in less than 10 minutes.
And the radar altimeter was weird too.
1391mtrs to 520meters back to 3020meters
(4562ft to...1750ft and then back to 5594ft.)

That's a bit of a roller coaster ride. This was in a 10 minute period.

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:26 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

The latest supplemental vortex message still hints at an outer wind max, which still points to a looming ERC at some point. The supp vortex message also contained this note:

Edit: Typcially, they can fly at 700 mb without too much of a problem even in really intense storms. Flying at 850mb can get dicey though, when the 850mb height drops to around 1500 feet or less. I take it they weren't expecting that much of a pressure drop.

Hurricane Master

(Registered User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:28 AM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

WOW, I can't belive that Wilma is almost a 5 after just being a TS just under 24 hous ago, but with this season anythings possible.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:29 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

Good way to break a new plane in ..

efaulkSWFLA

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:36 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

Hello.. I just wanted to get some of your thoughts on being on the north side of this storm at the time of landfall..

Is there still a strong anticipation that the shear will be strong enough that areas north of the eye should not be affected that bad? Will this recent intensification alter that theory at all?

Thx... Eddie - Ft. Myers, FL

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:36 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

since 1900
8 major hurricanes have landfall in the US
6 have struck florida
last one: Yep Opal..... 1995 in panhandle of fla.

i'm guessing you mean during october? -HF

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:37 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

Another jaw-dropping moment.

No way am I going to bed now.

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:42 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

The storm figures to be moving at a rapid rate of speed if it approaches Florida, so there will be a greater difference than usual between the northern (weaker) and southern (stronger) side. Still way too early to tell who will be close to the center on either side, though.

FelixPuntaGorda

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:42 AM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

I posted this question at the end of the last thread: does the surge stay with the storm or does it extend out like ripples from a rock dropped into a pond?

Maybe I'm confusing surge with waves, but I'd like more information on whether a Cat 4/5 heading into lower southwest Florida would cause the water to rise even on the "good" side of the cane before the storm makes landfall.

I'm in Punta Gorda at 9 feet above sea level. I know Katrina pushed the water into Mississippi. But was the water only on the east side of the eye?

Thanks, Typhoon, for your information in the other thread. I have the surge figures for Punta Gorda, but I want to know where & when the water pushes ashore.

Fay

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:44 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

Quote:

This year has been NUTS!!! Rita, Katrina, and Wilma, all woman names ending in A and all broke pressure records and all are in the top 5 in all time intensity. ALL IN ONE SEASON! INSANE!

...just wait 'till alpha!

(Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:45 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

Ok guys,I am going nuts here.What impact to you feel will happen to my area?Storm surge should be a none factor,given it is coming from the west.I will still be deciding soon if I should leave.I would like to hear everyones input.

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:47 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

Eddie,
It's Way too early to get an idea what Wilma will do.

You do have the right idea about being on the North side. I saw a post earlier that reflected the possibility of Wilma's wind speeds increasing After Landfall.
I'm not a MET. The only explanation that I could come up with would be Wilma's winds and the cold fronts winds interacting with each other.

That information was from a post and I haven't been able to find data to go with that "spin" theory.

I'm starting to see some convection moving onto the Hills west of San Antonio, Tx. This may be the precursor of the trough that is supposed to be headed your way.
http://www.ssd.noaa.goc/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

(Weather Guru)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:48 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

Quote:

Hello.. I just wanted to get some of your thoughts on being on the north side of this storm at the time of landfall..

Is there still a strong anticipation that the shear will be strong enough that areas north of the eye should not be affected that bad? Will this recent intensification alter that theory at all?

Thx... Eddie - Ft. Myers, FL

Eddie, I've got bad news for you, my brother - you are squarly in the highest likelyhood of getting a direct hit. Four day errors are measured in the hundreds of miles so you need to get ready for a direct hit.

The good news is that I just saved a bunch of money on my car insurance, and more importantly, yes the shear is forcast to weaken the storm later in the forcast period; however if weakens 20% and it peaks at 170MPH (which is very possible with a still deeping 901mb cane) then we are down to 130mph.

Get ready now.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:48 AM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

winds are going up on this buoy.... not sure of exact loaction: Station 42057 has been re-established 162.82 nautical miles northwest of its original position to reduce the shoaling hazards experienced in storms.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

Conditions at 42057 as of
0450 GMT on 10/19/2005:

Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 40.8 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 52.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 17.4 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.6 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWDIR): SE ( 137 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.56 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.00 in ( Steady )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.2 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.7 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 78.3 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 86.9 °F

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:49 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

...I took this down at the behest of a use... no offense intended!
Peace

HanKFranK

(User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:52 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

okay, i knew the damned thing was intensifying, but that 901mb is mind-blowing. very very tiny radius of maximum winds... i'm guessing that ERCs will help spread the areal coverage of hurricane winds out. in the meantime we've got a bizarre structure, with a super-hurricane nested inside what is essentially a big tropical storm. gotta wonder what the winds will be like when they catch up to the pressure fall... with that tight of an inner core.
i don't expect this odd structure will last for long... it will broaden out and ease up to the realm of reality one way or another.
like the nhc says, though.. forecast down the road remains unchanged. gotta go check the 00z models finally.. and finish this stupid paper.
HF 0553z19october

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:53 AM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

970mb at 5pm
901mb at 1:00am
69mb drop in 7.5hrs!!!! (adv times...think that comes out to 8 hrs)
per warren madden on TWC

said he's never seen or been in a hurricane with an eye of 4nm wide... in the atlantic basin!!!

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:54 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

I believe it is the GFDL output of the last couple of runs that has been increasing the winds (or at least the 950mb winds) immediately after landfall. There would be no good reason for this to occur... this is mainly just some imperfect modeling. Some regeneration could occur after it re-emerges over the Atlantic, obviously.

orlandocanewatcher

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:54 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

Holy CRUD!!! Just got home from work a little early (sick child at home) and my mouth nearly fell open. This is absolutely unbelievable. Just looked in from work about 12:30EDT and things were still at a high 2 borderline Cat 3. I am starting to get a little nervous here....
I live in East Orange County....what can we possibly expect even if it hits further south?? Especially at this pace....this is nuts!

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:55 AM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

Wait until you see the readings on 42056 tomorrow. I can't recall exactly but I think one of the two was knocked out by Emily.

And also trying to remember...which was the hurricane with the discussion comment about intensifying at a rate bordering on insane? Was that Emily?

Seems like each time that occured, the next hurricane raised the bar.

(Weather Guru)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:56 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

This is unreal; the hurricane force winds only extend out 15 miles. That works out to be 5 MPH faster for every mile you get closer, thats 1MPH faster every 1000 feet!

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:58 AM

Attachment

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane

I think I saw this posted earlier. But I'll respost the comment.
I was just browsing the satellite pages. I am amazed, to say the least at the amount of very high clouds on the satellite pics.
The Weather Channel-(reds) don't do it justice.

Try this link...I'll see if I can find some more.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

I have attached the image to this post. Click on the "attachment" above.

(Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:58 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane

Let me ask the question............If you were in Fort Lauderdale,would you leave,and when?

I hate to edit your post...But Leave? Yes, as soon as I could. Stay safe, there isn't a need to rush right now. Just Do It~danielw

(Weather Guru)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:00 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane

Quote:

Let me ask the question............If you were in Fort Lauderdale,would you leave,and when?

Unless instructed to by local officals, no and no.

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:01 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

Quote:

okay, i knew the damned thing was intensifying, but that 901mb is mind-blowing. very very tiny radius of maximum winds... i'm guessing that ERCs will help spread the areal coverage of hurricane winds out. in the meantime we've got a bizarre structure, with a super-hurricane nested inside what is essentially a big tropical storm. gotta wonder what the winds will be like when they catch up to the pressure fall... with that tight of an inner core.
i don't expect this odd structure will last for long... it will broaden out and ease up to the realm of reality one way or another.
like the nhc says, though.. forecast down the road remains unchanged. gotta go check the 00z models finally.. and finish this stupid paper.
HF 0553z19october

...additionally, i'm thinking the intensity curve has some momentum and won't hault on a dime in this case... particularly because the sst's in the area area or so warm and the u/a mechanics are looking if anything, better this evening.... but, at 2am...it's too late for me to formulate a cogent hypothesis about anything...ugh...

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:02 AM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

well the plane is still up and flying..... but i bet they took a beating on that first pass....
like thudebrd said..... i bet they didn't expect that kind of drop.... and i would bet someone from NHC or HRD has made a phone call to get a research plane up and reay to go at first chance..... i know there is one going in later today.... but i bet some of those research HRD guys are crapping in there pants right noe....wanting to get some research data from this historical event......one plane is good... but more would be better...

URNT11 KNHC 190545
97779 05424 40158 80900 30500 21053 0808/ /3082
RMK AF308 0724A WILMA OB 11

(Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:02 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

I just don't want to be stuck in traffic for 2 days.There are alot of people here.

orlandocanewatcher

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:02 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

If I were in Ft.Lauderdale I would be very seriously considering leaving....I have 3 kids and wouldn't even want to chance it. I would wait until tomorrow and see what's what.......good luck with that. I live in Orlando and am going to be watching this thing REAL closely.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:03 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

How could there be so much divergence between the 00Z CMC and UKMET runs? Even short term, one has Yucatan being hit, the other Western Cuba being hit. Is it a lack of any real steering until it reaches the GOM?

HanKFranK

(User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:05 AM

scary nogaps

if you want the scary scenario that i'm thinking is realistic for wilma in the long term (i.e., it phases with the westerlies ahead of the deep trough progged over the great lakes and stays baroclinically powerful as it recurves), check out the 00z nogaps. that's a substantial hurricane moving over the greater boston area on monday. not a pretty picture. waiting to see what the 00z euro does with it.
HF 0605z19october

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:05 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...17.0 N... 82.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...901 MB.

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:06 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane

Quote:

I think I saw this posted earlier. But I'll respost the comment.
I was just browsing the satellite pages. I am amazed, to say the least at the amount of very high clouds on the satellite pics.
The Weather Channel-(reds) don't do it justice.

Try this link...I'll see if I can find some more.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

I have attached the image to this post. Click on the "attachment" above.

..If I may venture a supposition.. i think we are making history for a couple of reasons
a) rate of intensity change
b) what will likely become a one of the large events we've seen in terms of circulation envelopment in the atlantic history...

..I say the latter because consider: the pressure is ambiently higher over southern Alabama through SC then it is in the vicinity of Wilma... Where is Wilma slated to go? I am really, really interesting (if not concerned) that the wind field will be considerably larger then people currently think when she's nearing the latitude of the Yucatan Channel, because her phenomenal central core pressure, balanced against a higher ambient pressure field will start to exert a pgf at greater ranges.. Looking a the sat you provided shows that there is plenty of room for her to grow laterally..

(Weather Guru)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:08 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

Quote:

I just don't want to be stuck in traffic for 2 days.There are alot of people here.

Are you within a couple of blocks of the coast and/or in a mobile home? If no, esp if you're in a post-Andrew code home, get a bunch of ice and gas and sit tight IMO.

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:08 AM

Wilma

Occasionally you will hear someone describe an intense hurricane as like a really large tornado. Generally speaking, that really isn't accurate, but the extreme difference in wind speeds over a short distance as observed in Wilma is actually somewhat similar to what you would find in a tornado.

I guess we can safely say that Wilma really tightened up its inner wind field, as we were wondering about earlier today.

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:08 AM

Re: scary nogaps

Quote:

that's a substantial hurricane moving over the greater boston area on monday. not a pretty picture. waiting to see what the 00z euro does with it.
HF 0605z19october

Hank and everyone. I need to check the forecast...but It's should be fairly cold in Boston on Monday.!!!

They might need to think about blowing that dam in MA.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:08 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

danielw/others - wanna see cold.... look at this....

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir_loop.gif

i have on seen the white one time this year..... the system is east pacific a few weeks ago off of mexico...

(Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:10 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

I am 1.5 miles from the beach.This really is scary.
you'll be fine, bob. -HF

Big Tk

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:11 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

Take look at the new HPC ncep disscussion.

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
153 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...HRCN WILMA...

THE NAM VERY QUICKLY TRENDS SLOW AND LEFT OF OTHER GUIDANCE. THE
GFS IS LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL TPC FCST MOST OF THE PERIOD... AND IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER. THE UKMET IS FARTHER LEFT THAN THE GFS. THE 12Z
ECMWF SPENDS MOST OF THE FCST PERIOD RIGHT OF THE TPC TRACK BUT IS
THE CLOSEST MODEL TO THE TPC F72 POSN. CANADIAN GLBL RUNS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH TRACKS THAT ARE EXCEPTIONALLY FAST/RIGHT OUTLIERS.
CONSULT LATEST DISCUSSIONS AND ADVISORIES FROM TPC FOR THE LATEST
INFO REGARDING HRCN WILMA.

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:11 AM

Re: scary nogaps

Quote:

if you want the scary scenario that i'm thinking is realistic for wilma in the long term (i.e., it phases with the westerlies ahead of the deep trough progged over the great lakes and stays baroclinically powerful as it recurves), check out the 00z nogaps. that's a substantial hurricane moving over the greater boston area on monday. not a pretty picture. waiting to see what the 00z euro does with it.
HF 0605z19october

Hi.. You and I have been hammering this out for days now and I too have made light of this potential in earlier posts. The only reason I say that is that with every run of global origin that is paving this route we get more uneasy because it fits well with a intuitive synoptic reasoning from almost a week ago! Anyway, the 12z ecm was impressive too; which you brought my attention to... (Figures, the one model I didn't look at today - d'oh). Anyway, that's a destructive Nor'easter in the ECM - again, well teleconnected.

The other thing about the NOGAPs, which offers disconcerting vibes... It is typically progressivity biased and doesn't like to latch onto meridinal events... Hm.. Strange to see it bite first?

BriahH

(Registered User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:11 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane

Kindly, and in consideration of our laymen's knowledge: tell me some more about the expansion of the windfield. That is something that has always mystified me about various hurricanes. I know max wind is sexy, but I also know that the total destructive potential of a hurricane is very much related to how big a storm is.

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:13 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

The version of Wilma that is expected to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico may not quite a bit different than the current version. The extremely tight inner core could come apart at any time, inducing rapid weakening. Wilma may reorganize as a larger, more typical system after that occurs. Storms with such small eyes are not known for their staying power.

laxpimpj

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:15 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

Erm, I had no idea that fort lauderdale was so close to coral gables, but I am at UNI right now.... what should I do?

corrected spelling.~danielw

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:18 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

here's 16 km Polar Stereographic Water Vapor(IR3) -- US

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/f7_8_0.html

Tropical - GOES-12 4 km IR 4 Floater #1:
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_ir4_float1_0.html

Tropical - 14 km Water Vapor (1 hr) - IR 3
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:19 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

I have never seen cloud tops as cold as they got with Wilma in a symmetric hurricane (I generally only pay attention to the Atlantic storms). Occasionally you will see that in sheared or developing systems were convection is strongly favored on a particular side of the system, but to see symmetric cloud tops of -85C combined with a pinhole eye suggests about as rapid of intensification as you can get. It isn't looking quite as good now, though the convection is still very cold.

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:20 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane

This is off course a bit. Storm Hunter's link to the ESL at LSU reveals something I've never seen before.

There are white tops in the clouds above Wilma. Using the temperature scale provided...that would indicate Cloud Tops in the -85 to -95 degree range.

Hank, Tip, or anyone. This would be around 60-70,000feet??

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:24 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane

0610z 1657N 08209W 168kts 2536mtrs

This isn't looking good.

ftlaud and dj. I'm going to look for some info...You guys stay cool it might take me a few. Thanks ~Danny

SirCane

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:25 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

Wilma will probably be a 3 when it gets to Florida. Would not worry about it if you're in Ft. Lauderdale. It's coming from the West so you should be fine. Just stay at home and hunker down for a long day.

(Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:25 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane

I am a tough guy,but this is scaring the hell out of me.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:26 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane

i am actually trying to answer that same question right now.... off do do some quick research..... anyone see any recon reports lately? last i have is obs 11.... should have new one now... been 30mins now

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:29 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane

You can also see the white on the NHC link to the wv image, right up to the 0445Z. Something seems to have happened quickly right after that because the 05515Z looks quite different. I think the tightly wound spring just started to unravel.

Roller coaster ride is not over yet. Remember we still have the warm waters of tomorrow and Thursday to travel through. She can easliy ramp up again tomorrow night (another sleepless night).

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:30 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane

Try this link. There isn't anything showing right now and I'm not seeing anything on the NWS products ...yet.

http://www.co.miami-dade.fl.us/oem/

(Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:32 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane

Should this storm pull the water out of the inter coastal?,Because it is coming from the west.Or will the wrap around effect bring a storm surge here.It is now a question of life and death,given my location.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:32 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane

I woke up to TWC just before 2am and thought I was going to throw up. I am in Naples, technically inland Collier County, between North Naples and Immokalee. Where do you even think about going? I've also got 2 small dogs, one just a little too big to carry on a plane. Gotta head into work now where I will encounter others with the same shellshocked looks on their faces.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:34 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category FIVE

Wilma is now a Five according to the NHC.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:34 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category FIVE

HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HURRICANE WILMA
HAS BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED
175 MPH WINDS AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 892 MB. THIS IS
THE LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED IN 2005 AND IS EQUIVALENT TO THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS.

Hurricane Fredrick 1979

(Weather Guru)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:37 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane

This is the latest that I have there may be one newer.

URNT12 KNHC 190446
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/04:32:40Z
B. 16 DEG 52 MIN N
081 DEG 56 MIN W
C. 850 MB 516 M
D. NA KT
E. NA DEG NM
F. 116 DEG 162 KT
G. 15 DEG 003 NM
H. EXTRAP 901 MB
I. 17 C/ 1537 M
J. 26 C/ 1557 M
K. 25 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C4
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 NM
P. AF308 0724A WILMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 162 KT NE QUAD 04:31:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB

(Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:38 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category FIVE

Guys,Really should I leave?This is getting nuts.What impact will this have on my area,given everything keeps going this way?

Goosus

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:39 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category FIVE

Bob, chill out. You're going to give yourself a heart attack before morning at this rate.

(Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:41 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category FIVE

I know,you are right.Just trying to make plans.Need input.

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:43 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category FIVE

Bob your scared but excited the same time...... Your glad that you can get hit but nervous of the strength of it... Just get some sleep, next thing you know, it will pass well west of ya and you will get rain bands....For now,,we wont know exact landfall until Friday morning probably and that is within a 100mile cone,.,right now its about 500 mile swath..KeyWest-Pasco County.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:43 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane

Think it's good to look at your options, however, we are still three or more days from landfall. The forecast path could change significantly. I can tell you the whole city of Miami or Ft Lauderdale will not be asked to evacuate. I lived through Andrew down there and frankly people just hunkered down. Katrina was the first storm where I saw large groups of people evacuate, but for good cause. FTL and MIA do not have the same concerns. Now if you were in Naples on up through Tampa I would be very concerned and move inland, but FTL should be fine. Follow the directions of the EOC. If asked to evacuate then do it. However, your only option is to go north, and frankly the path of the hurricane has yet to be set in stone.

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:46 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane

That is the latest I saw also

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:47 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane

Well anyone in a high rise building on Floridas east coast I would defidently leave,,,,even if you only expect 100mph winds,,,if your about 5 floors up or more,,, you will lose friction of the land to stop any wind as you are far enough above ground to get unimpeaded wind.......

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:49 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category FIVE

892?

Cloud tops continue to cool now on wv image, and convection to spread out.

Does this mean that the windfield gradients are spreading out from the center to a more normal dist?

I loved the earlier characterization of the windfield as a tiny cat 5 eyewall sitting in the middle of a TS.

(Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:49 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane

Driving home from work tonight,I got very heavy rain.This system is very far away ,and the locals were saying that if we are getting this now.What about when it gets closer?There is not alot of land between Napals and me,and if it is moving fast how much can it weaken.Sorry folks,just getting nervous looking at this monster.

Goosus

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:50 AM

Re: Super Hurricanes

After hearing about Typhoon Tip a little earlier, I found this page and graphic.

Typhoon Tip - 1979

This storm almost boggles the imagination. How can a single low pressure area drag around a circulation area that large? And tropical force storms winds 675 miles from the center? How did they get this information and verify it? It almost seems like a tall tale.

I also stumbled upon this chart (which is somewhat dated) that shows the most powerful storms on record (not including this year).

Intensity Table

My question is, without getting too technical, why are the 7 most powerful tropical cyclones all Pacific Ocean events? Is there some unique mechanism that allows storms to reach such freakish intensity in the Pacific vs. the Atlantic?

Thanks

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:51 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category FIVE

just took a look at latest sat pic.... don't think she is done.... 890mb... was my number two days agao... going to throw that out the window... think she will break the lowest (gilbert 888).....880's not out of the question now... i would expect that the 892mb was an estimate.... pretty sure there was a surface wind, just like in rita... that may have not got the best reading..... wilima has a much tighter core, therfore i would expect some strong surface winds in the center... more that 30mph..... i wounder what the GPS dropsonde reported near the surface?

eye appears to be cleaning up some in sats.... and she is still surrounded by some VERY COLD cloud tops.... 80mbs in less than 12hrs..... wonder when the winds catch all the way up... how high will they get.... there coming around now... 170mph.... gust well above 200mph now!!!

heard report eye is 2nm wide.... hmmmm.... off to check!

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:51 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane

BOB Stop plz,,,,you are not getting anything from Wilma right now,,,its just a shower off the coast coming in on trade winds....I dont care what the radio said..

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:53 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane

URNT12 KNHC 190648
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/06:11:10Z
B. 16 deg 58 min N
082 deg 11 min W
C. 700 mb 2132 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 202 deg 168 kt
G. 109 deg 003 nm
H. EXTRAP 892 mb
I. 10 C/ 3058 m
J. 24 C/ 3034 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C2
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0724A WILMA OB 12
MAX FL WIND 168 KT SE QUAD 06:10:20 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

(Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:53 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category FIVE

Rain is very heavy here now,gusty winds.Wow,this far out,amazing.Also lighting.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:54 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category FIVE

well back *hehehe*

deleted *** posted above vortex

2NM wide eye...... ????? WOW!!!! talk about tight..... Sounds like an ERC or something... going from 4nm to 2nm.... or is she trying to become a big tornado? (j/K) *L*

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:54 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category FIVE

BOB Stop...we all know its not from Wilma...your not 12 years old, your a grown adult,,

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:56 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane

Everyone in Florida will get some rain from this. I am not sure if what you are getting is from this Hurricane or typical seabreeze storms that effect the coast. It maybe driving some moisture into your area, but nothing that cannot be considered normal for South Florida or any part of the penninsula for that matter.

If I know Bryan Norcross and I do, he is probably salivating hoping that this storm will once again kick start his career.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:56 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane

How is that even possible? 2nm in diameter?

OK so how does this play out? This has got to be some kind of self-destruct scenario, right? The eye collapses. Would that send some kind of shock wave through the storm?

Goosus

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:56 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane

Where are you getting this raw real time flight data?

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:56 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane

2 mile wide eye... it is going to implode at this rate. The inner core could come apart at any time now.

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:56 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category FIVE

Okay Bob, and others in S FL. I'm not able to find Any information on whether to evacuate, or not.

As Colleen said earlier, Gov Bush should declare a state of Emergency this morning...for those just joining the discussion, that's (Probable) State of Emergency.

Based on the forecasts and projected 5 Day Track. Wilma should come ashore near Marco Island...i.e. very SW Florida. And move across to the East Coast.
The angle of her track will depend on the timing and location of the forecast Cold Front.

Bob, the initial winds in the Ft Lauderdale area...Should be from the SE?-effectively pushing the water into Biscayne Bay and other low lying areas.

This is my speculation ONLY. Based on Hurricane wind fields.
Check your Evacuation Zones...Know which one you are in...and get everything ready to evacuate.

You may not have to go anywhere. But it's better to be ready than not. I have no idea how FL traffic is during an Evacuation. I have seen the media shots and they aren't pretty. If you and your family can leave in the early hours of the morning. That might be best.

Just remember to take flashlights, water-lots of it, and fuel. Don't count on any town down the road having fuel. You may have to drive into Georgia before you find any ( worst case scenario...).

(Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:57 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category FIVE

Yes it is,and if you had any idea what was going on you would know this.So just get on with your "life" and stop attacking me.

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:58 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane

BOB isnt getting anything but a typical shower off the coast,,,should be end of discussion,,where are the admins?

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:59 AM

Short term Weather

Bob, the weather you are experiencing right now isn't directly from Wilma. Please go get a glass of water and sip it...

A 2nm Eye?? What's going on here?
2005-The Record Year...If there was a record, they broke it!

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 07:00 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category FIVE

The Collier County Commissioners were scheduled to meet in emergency session at 3pm on Thursday re: Wilma. I am thinking that meeting might just be held a little earlier. Lee County did their emergency declaration yesterday. Collier EM is very good so I'm sure we will get some good info from them.

(Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 07:01 AM

Re: Short term Weather

I just listen to the local mets.They all say these are feeder bands.Not one met but three.

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 07:03 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane

Quote:

Where are you getting this raw real time flight data?

You can get the recon data from this link:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 07:03 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category FIVE

High pressure in mid-levels of the atmosphere across the central and western Gulf of Mexico has actually expanded some according to upper air data gathered by a high flying NOAA aircraft. This data suggests that the upper level ridge is a bit stronger and that explains why Wilma has been moving more west than north during the night. Was this expected or unexpected according to NHC?

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 07:06 AM

Re: Short term Weather

Okay, well I'm not a MET. I didn't stay at Holiday InnExpress last night.

But feeder bands...Go Into the storm. The ones over your area are from the outflow . Tell your METS to call me. We'll do a little satellite meterology.

Seriously, go get some water. I sent you a PM with the MFL short term forecast in it. If my sats are right. You will have a break in the rain shortly. And then another larger area of rain will pass through.

It's Wilma interacting with another weather system off to your east.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 07:06 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category FIVE

Their take on it was long-term...and occuring over the next day or so. I don't know if this would be considered just a wrinkle that will be ironed out in the big picture, or a significant change that will require an adjustment of the track forecast.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 07:07 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane

talk about implode.... can't think of all that energy fixing to clash..... wow..... my brain is going crazy.....poor noaa hrd guys must be sick to there stomach not having real time radar data from there aircraft.... not sure if AF can transmitt real time... i know that can send archived.... not "live"... plane to sat to hrd...

**added some suff i am looking at now....

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/ifex2005/IFEX-Late_Phase_debrief.htm

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 07:08 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

892 mbar:
5 mbar to go for the atlantic record
23mbar to go for the all time record

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 07:09 AM

Upper air

I did notice that the NOAA Gulfstream was doing a pre-storm flight earlier.
They flew as far west as 90W. I seem to remember the pressure from the dropsonde being 1014mb.

charlottefl

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 07:09 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category FIVE

Things are getting a little nerve wracking on the west coast here. My dad lives directly in the path and I'm about 50 miles north of him. I realize that is subject to change but I think we can all agree that this thing is coming towards the west coast. If I can make a suggestion to save a lot of people a lot of time and frustration. If you live near the water and have to leave, as I may have to don't travel half way across the state. Find a sturdy constructed building 25-50 miles inland and ride it out if you can avoid getting stuck in traffic, because the main concern with this will be surge. You can hide from the wind but you can't run from the water.

Hurricane Charley '04(Port Charlotte, FL)

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 07:13 AM

Re: Upper air

Please...can anyone talk about the dynamics of how the eyewall would implode? Is the recon still in there? What would happen / would there be a shock wave?

Has this ever happened before?

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 07:14 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane

The 06Z SHIPS actually indicates a little more weakening before landfall in FL than it had indicated in the last run, suggesting a landfall intensity of around 100 knots. It maxes out the intensity at 155 knots in 6 hours, in case anyone was interested in the gory details (that model guidance is basically useless in the short term considering the extremely unusual structure of Wilma right now).

The latest (00Z) GFDL track is further west, bringing the center over the extreme eastern Yucutan peninsula. It still indicates landfall at about the same location in Florida as before. It also indicates more of a northerly bend as the storm exits Florida, bringing the center not too far off the NC coast by 126 hours (the end of the forecast run).

mojorox

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Oct 19 2005 07:16 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category FIVE

Bob, I'd wait till tomorrow and see what the models do and what your local authorities say. The last thing you want to do is evacuate somewhere and have the track change like happened to many who evacuated to Orlando for Charley only to end up with him going right over them here..

jmk818

(Registered User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 07:21 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category FIVE

What was the last time 3 cat 5's formed in the atlantic basin, and what year was the last time that 3 cat 5's formed and made US landfall?

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 07:21 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category FIVE

Great Point Mojorox. I had forgotten about that.

Check your 06Z SHIPS text. It's not indicating 'LAND".
Storm over Land would list as a negative number in the LAND (KM) line. The closest this run brings it is 93km. Or 60miles.

jmk818

(Registered User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 07:22 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category FIVE

Quote:

Bob, I'd wait till tomorrow and see what the models do and what your local authorities say. The last thing you want to do is evacuate somewhere and have the track change like happened to many who evacuated to Orlando for Charley only to end up with him going right over them here..

But i wouldn't wait til the last minute. Plan ahead, and keep to the plan. Always expect the unexpected.

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 07:30 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category FIVE

I think it is too early to do anything except make a plan and pack sensitive belongings. This storm has intensified so fast and the temperatures and conditions ahead of this storm are not consistent. It could de-escalate just as fast and be limping along as a low Tropical storm by the time it gets to Florida. The currents that are expected to accelerate its forward speed will have to kick in to 20mph or better for it to have time to maintain the capacity it is at tonight. I remember that Charley was not all that threatening until he started to enter the Gulf. Then he blew up. This seems to be doing the reverse in a general sense. But since we do not know what a 2mile wide eye will do at CAT5 level winds this far out from Florida, it is going to be a definite science lesson. Try to be calm so that you can enjoy the dynamics of the storm rather than fear them. It is thus far, like a serial TV show, you keep tuning in to find out what will happen next.

(Registered User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 07:31 AM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

hi there,
i'm on vacation here in port charlotte/sarasota florida, my flight is scheduled on friday at 5pm out of tampa. do you think this storm will affect my flight at all or is there a way i can find out if it will be anywhere near here by friday day?
i have a bit of anxiety about this storm, the worst storm i've ever seen was an F4 tornado (edmonton, ab, 1987) but the word hurricane just strikes a few more nerves to me. sorry for seeming so panicked.
j
storm won't be there by friday. your flight out should be o.k. -HF

Big Tk

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Oct 19 2005 07:32 AM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category FIVE

It is way too premature to take any action. Keep in mind the storm is still 3-4 days from making landfall. I'll feel more confident when the models come into better agreement with the Upper level system to our west. We should no more by Thursday. Remember any slight deviation to the left or right will make a big difference where this monster makes landfall.

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 07:33 AM

Re: Upper air

Margie. I'm not a MET. As you know.
Tornadoes...rope out when they collapse. I don't think Wilma is small enough to do that.
I don't recall hearing about an 8, 4 or a 2nm Eye.
And I'm not seeing an ERC starting to take place. (although I haven't looked in an hour).

I guess we will have to wait and see. What if anything happens. I do know that there should be some huge waves passing through the Yucatan Channel in the next few days. Provided Wilma doesn't collapse from within.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 07:38 AM

Re: Upper air

Yeah I thought about roping out and I didn't see how that could apply.

If I knew the recon wasn't going to try to go through again I think I'd feel a lot better, and then could just watch what was going to happen in an abstract sense.

Funny thing is the eye seems to be holding, on sat images. The convection is continuing to go down and spread out. I assume that means the windfield gradient is flattening out into a more normal distribution from the eyewall?

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 07:40 AM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

When Charley hit Port Charlotte, we here in Tampa Bay area were getting a lot of wind and rain. It will depend on how fast the forward speed of this storm is by Friday. If you can get an earlier flight out than the one you have now, it would give you a little better chance of not being grounded at the airport. (My guess is that being in an airport would not be a comfortable place to ride out a storm.).

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 07:45 AM

Buoy report

42057 Buoy, located 85nm ENE of the present center, is showing a constant pressure drop. 0.02" over a 3 hr window.
Seas have come down a bit. From 17.4 to 16.7 at present.
Winds are 38.9kts down from 40.8kts.

This is in the last 3 hours. I didn't check beyond that.

So 85nm away the winds aren't too terribly bad. Wilma must be tightly wrapped.

It's hard to tell but it looks like RECON might be making another pass through the center. They are NE bound

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 07:54 AM

Re: Buoy report

i was looking at that too.... but i don't have the exact location of that buoy.....i do know the Station 42057 has been re-established 162.82 nautical miles northwest of its original position to reduce the shoaling hazards experienced in storms.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057
Owned and maintained by National Data Buoy Center
10-meter discus buoy
ARES payload
17.60 N 80.75 W ( 17°36'16" N 80°44'58" W )

so 162.82nm NW from above? red or black?

wish they say hey it's over here at....i think its actually farther away than we think.... or i might be wrong

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 07:58 AM

Re: Buoy report

Convection increasing again now.

Cloud tops getting colder all around the CDO...going from blue to dk blue on the wv.

This thing isn't over yet. What other surprises does Wilma have in store for us this morning?

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 08:01 AM

Re: Buoy report

42057 WESTERN CARIBB 17.60N/ 80.75W

The lat/ longs are at the same location.
Different format.
DD.DDD-decimal format
DD MM SSS-degrees, minutes, seconds (marine format, so the ships know where it is)

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 08:03 AM

Re: Upper air

I would guess that the eye has contracted about as much as is possible. Since a 2 mile wide eye is unprecedented, it's hard to say exactly what will happen from here. Chances are, the eyewall will simply fall apart (causing the eye to disappear on satellite), or else it may slowly open back up again and die a slower death. There is a definite outer wind maximum in the recon data, so an eyewall-replacement cycle is inevitable.

Spoken

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 08:03 AM

Um...

What about yesterday's forecast? It looked as if Baja California would be more likely take a bath, in the event of a strong Wilma, than Florida would. If so then why would a strong Wilma now be expected to track more or less the same as a weak Wilma?

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 08:09 AM

More Changes

Wilma isn't the only thing changing this morning. Here is an excerpt from the Tampa NWS AFD...just out.

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 241 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)
WILMA HAS UNDERGONE RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAPID DEEPENING DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND IS NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE!

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE POINTING OUT THE DETAILS...WITH RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN TIMING AND SUBTLE CHANGES IN TRACK OF WILMA. IN GENERAL...MOST GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LANDFALL LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

SEVERAL COMPLEX UPR FEATURES...SOME OF WHICH ARE STILL OUT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...ARE ALL PLAYERS IN THE TRACK OF WILMA AND STILL THINK WE MAY SEE SOME MORE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL CYCLES...

THUS OUR CWA...ESP SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...IS STILL POTENTIALLY IN THE THICK OF THINGS AND NO ONE SHOULD LET THEIR GUARD DOWN. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK HAS WILMA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS SW FL (NEAR NAPLES) SAT EVE.

this AFD is Tampa's diagnosis of forecast weather. AFDs are updated around 4 times a day. And doesn't mean that Wilma will do exactly what's in the discussion. Just like all weather...wait 30 minutes and it will change~danielw

http://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.fxus62.KTBW.html

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 08:12 AM

Re: More Changes

Tampa does have a hard time reporting forecasts and being politically correct at the same time. I think it translated to (heck if we know what this storm is going to do)

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 08:12 AM

Re: More Changes

Oh, guys... you have got to take a look at the wv loop right up to the current (0715Z). This is unreal. She's ramping up some more.

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 08:13 AM

Re: More Changes

166kts Max flt level wind on both ?sides? of the Eye.
At 0800Z.

edit: It appears that due to the small Eye Recon is extrapolating WIlma's pressure from the aircraft height above sea level. I haven't seen a dropsonde report in a while.
We will have to wait a few minutes to see what her pressure is now.

Spoken

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 08:24 AM

Re: More Changes

Quote:

166kts Max flt level wind on both ?sides? of the Eye.
At 0800Z.

For those of us at sea about things nautical would 166kts be slightly in excess of 190mph?

Multi-Decadal Signal

(Weather Guru)

Wed Oct 19 2005 08:27 AM

Re: More Changes

statute mi = naut. mi x 1.15.

5,280 feet...6080 feet

Correction factors may be needed in some calculations but the ratio is eternal, Danny!

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 08:30 AM

Re: More Changes

166kts flt level *1.15=191mph(flt level wind speed in mph) * 91% for surface winds=174mph at the surface (approximate)

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 08:39 AM

She Broke IT!!!!

Major Hurricane Wilma has now broken All Previous Records of Lowest Minimum Central Pressure.

URNT12 KNHC 190835
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/08:00:30Z
B. 17 deg 03 min N
082 deg 20 min W
C. 700 mb 2082 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 320 deg 166 kt
G. 221 deg 003 nm
H. 884 mb
I. 10 C/ 3073 m
J. 24 C/ 3043 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C4
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0724A WILMA OB 16
MAX FL WIND 168 KT SE QUAD 06:10:20 Z

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 08:39 AM

Re: More Changes

AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REPORTED 884 MB...THE LOWEST
MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER MEASURED IN A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN...THIS VALUE SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION UNTIL CALIBRATED

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 08:40 AM

Re: More Changes

884mb is the pressure....That is amazing.

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Oct 19 2005 08:42 AM

Re: More Changes

What effects do you think the St Pete/Tampa area will experience from Wilma? Is this a storm that people in this area should be concerned enough with to consider leaving?

BullitNutz

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Oct 19 2005 08:42 AM

Re: More Changes

Christ. Late-season hurricane that has broken two records.

Par for the course with this season though.

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 08:43 AM

Re: More Changes

Still 15 mbar to go for the all time record

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 08:45 AM

Records

Where is LIPhil when you need him?

2005-The Year of Broken Records.
I hope we don't break any more!!!~danielw

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 08:47 AM

Re: She Broke IT!!!!

Earlier this evening I had thought again of the famous Bette Davis line in "All About Eve," which is, "Fasten your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy night."

However now all I can think of that's appropriate is another line from that same exceptionally-written movie: "Be careful, dear, you're going to run out of adjectives."

I have.

And the ride is not over. Deep warm water, all the way through Friday.

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 08:48 AM

Re: Records

Assuming the 884 mb figure holds, the pressure has dropped 98 mb from the advisory at this time yesterday (when Wilma was still a tropical storm).

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 08:50 AM

Re: Records

I sometimes wonder if he's in a padded cell somewhere.

When he comes back, I will no longer refer to him as Little Phil. When he comes back, he weel be ze "Le Phil."

No -- that's good. We just have to find a way to put it into a pronounceable acronym.

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 08:52 AM

Re: More Changes

Quote:

What effects do you think the St Pete/Tampa area will experience from Wilma? Is this a storm that people in this area should be concerned enough with to consider leaving?

Consider leaving...Yes. I don't think I would leave just yet. I hate to say this. But I don't think WIlma is through with her astounding characteristics.

Pack and ready your vehicles for possible evacuation.
When Local Authorities issue a Mandatory or Voluntary Evacuation for your area. Follow that and Leave...please.

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 08:54 AM

Re: More Changes

From the latest discussion:

IN ADDITION TO THE SPECTACULAR CLOUD PATTERN OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
...AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 168 KNOTS AT 700 MB
AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 884 MB EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700MB.
UNOFFICIALLY...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD THE PLANE RELIED AN
EXTRAPOLATED 881 MB PRESSURE AND MEASURED 884 MB WITH A DROPSONDE.
THIS IS ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY SMALL EYE THAT HAS BEEN
OSCILLATING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 N MI DURING EYE PENETRATIONS. THIS IS
PROBABLY THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE 888 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988. HOWEVER...ONE MUST BE VERY CAREFUL
BEFORE IT IS DECLARED A RECORD MINIMUM PRESSURE UNTIL A FULL AND
DETAILED CALIBRATION OF THE INSTRUMENTS AND CALCULATIONS IS
PERFORMED. SO PLEASE DO NOT JUMP INTO CONCLUSIONS YET...BE PATIENT.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 08:56 AM

Re: Records

This is too twisted for color tv:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES.

* * * * *

And, from the disc:

UNOFFICIALLY...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD THE PLANE RELAYED AN EXTRAPOLATED 881 MB PRESSURE AND MEASURED 884 MB WITH A DROPSONDE.

How about that?

Also, they think she's peaked

WILMA IS NEAR ITS MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITY AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED

and I guess don't anticipate a replay of rapid intensification tomorrow night. I think another night of rapid intensification could still happen, but nothing even approaching the crazy heights of this past four hours, which, because of the bizarre structure of this hurricane, is already starting to feel a little like an academic curiosity, even if I did see it happen. I was glad to be watching, in any case.

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 08:56 AM

Read This

Well I sent Phil a wake up email with the Vortex message in it. I don't think he will be able to resist.

This is from the 5 AM EDT Discussion.
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 (edited~danielw)

IN ADDITION TO THE SPECTACULAR CLOUD PATTERN OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
...AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 168 KNOTS AT 700 MB AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 884 MB EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700MB.

UNOFFICIALLY...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD THE PLANE RELAYED AN EXTRAPOLATED 881 MB PRESSURE AND MEASURED 884 MB WITH A DROPSONDE.

THIS IS ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY SMALL EYE THAT HAS BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 N MI DURING EYE PENETRATIONS. THIS IS
PROBABLY THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE 888 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988.

HOWEVER...ONE MUST BE VERY CAREFUL
BEFORE IT IS DECLARED A RECORD MINIMUM PRESSURE UNTIL A FULL AND DETAILED CALIBRATION OF THE INSTRUMENTS AND CALCULATIONS IS PERFORMED. SO PLEASE DO NOT JUMP INTO CONCLUSIONS YET...BE PATIENT.

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 09:04 AM

Wrap Up

For those that are still in their chairs.
Recon has departed Wilma, and is headed home.
The next flight is "scheduled" for a 9AM EDT departure, with an 18Z (2PM EDT) fix.

Please consult Official NHCand NWS products for Official Statements, Watches and Warnings.
Stay alert to possible evacuation notices for areas of Florida. Most of all...Prepare Now~danielw

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 09:07 AM

Re: Read This

The dropsonde that measured 884 mb recorded mean boundary layer winds of 20 knots, so the actual central pressure may be closer to the extrapolated 881 mb value mentioned in the discussion.

I think the recon plane is on the way out, so that may be the lowest pressure that will be measured from this storm. Some sort of weakening trend (rapid or otherwise) will likely commence before the next plane is scheduled to be in there.

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 09:13 AM

Re: Read This

I hope that's the lowest pressure that we Ever see.

If there is a consolation to that pressure. It's because Wilma is over open ocean. Here's hoping everyone cleared the area when she was a Tropical Storm.
About 25 hours ago!

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 09:13 AM

Re: Read This

He'll think you made it up to bug him, and he'll be curmudgeonly. Then he'll find out it was for real, and he missed it, and then he'll be even more Phil-like.

OK I can go to sleep now, even with white cloud tops (I'm jaded now).

I just had this picture in my mind and I couldn't shake it -- the eyewall imploding just as the recon flew through, putting them into some kind of unrecoverable Top Gun tailspin. I was so worried. The 2nm diameter eyewall and lack of sleep was just freaking me out.

That recon will have a story to tell the rest of their lives.

Ugh. Good night all. What a long, strange trip it's been.

I have to get up in a couple hours!

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 09:17 AM

Re: Read This

Quote:

I hope that's the lowest pressure that we Ever see

It's the weirdest low pressure we'll ever see.

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 09:18 AM

Re: Read This

It actually appears on the last few IR frames that the Eye was expanding, could be the eyes, sure more coffee, why not

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 09:18 AM

Re: Read This

It would be funny if Wilma started weakening rapidly and saw the pressure jump back up to 930-940 mb in the next few hours. In that case, there will be people who have gone to bed when it was 954 mb and will wake up to an only somewhat lower pressure, even though it dropped all the way to 880-something during the night. That tiny inner core still seems to be hanging in there, though.

Wilma is a freak of nature right now, but at some point it will probably turn into a more typical hurricane. The bottom line for Florida hasn't necessarily changed that much... the environmental conditions by that time could probably support a cat 3 storm, but anything stronger than that would be unlikely, unless Wilma is a very intense hurricane as it moves into the Gulf, which is not a guarantee for any number of reasons (eyewall replacements, land interactions, etc.)

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 09:20 AM

Re: Records

Quote:

WILMA IS NEAR ITS MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITY AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED

This means that with current understanding in physics, the combination of all the parameters like sst, shear, background pressure, upper air temp, etc etc, point out that the maximum intensity that could be reached is reached. In order to strengthen furter, higher sst's are needed, which means that Wilma is using the available energy about 100% efficient, which is supported by MPHI, where 880 is about the lowest pressure that can be reached (apart from Wilma's own influence on that model).

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 09:25 AM

Re: Records

Hypothetically speaking...Yes, Wilma has maxed out.
But all of the books seem outdated this year. For some reason. None of the models forecasted her current intensity. Similar to Katrina and Rita.

Weather will never be an exact Science. As it changes so fast.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 09:27 AM

Re: Records

Oh my gosh, I can't believe what I woke up too. Unbelievable! I'm on the east coast of Florida and honestly I'm spooked. I know she will weaken but it still scares me!

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 09:32 AM

Re: Records

I don't know a whole lot about MPI, but given the very unusual structure of Wilma, it may not fit into that theoretical framework as well as just about any other hurricane would.

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 09:32 AM

Re: Records

Quote:

Oh my gosh, I can't believe what I woke up too. Unbelievable! I'm on the east coast of Florida and honestly I'm spooked. I know she will weaken but it still scares me!

Sleeping is just a waste of time

look what you've missed!

About the forecasts, a few days ago the NHC did warn for very rapid intensification, but never included it into the forecasts. No forecaster would forecast a cat 5 hurricane for the next day, while it would be a TS at that time, it would wreck credibility.

Quote:

I don't know a whole lot about MPI, but given the very unusual structure of Wilma, it may not fit into that theoretical framework as well as just about any other hurricane would.

No that's true, but there are some limitations on the maximum intensity, so I don't think any cyclone would ever be able to reach 850 mbar in any condition possible on the earth.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 09:38 AM

Re: Records

Um...I thought I was done for the night, but then made the mistake of looking at the wv loop one last time.

The durn thing is flying along, wobbling like an Eveready Bunny missing one wheel, that weird eyewall looking just as stable as can be.

Look at the track. Looks like she's taking a path a little shallower; that is, a little more to the east than forecast. That'll keep her in those warmer waters. So, after the presumably inevitable ERC, she'll have resources to strengthen again, and I don't see why she wouldn't make it back up to Cat 4/5 levels again by Thursday.

NHC still has her hitting land as a major hurricane (barely).

wurkey1

(Registered User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 09:43 AM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

Hi guys,

Just looking for a bit of reassurance here, i am flying to Orlando from Belfast about this time next month with my wife and kids for the whole Florida /Orlando experience, do you reckon it will still be safe to come???

Any help or advice would be most welcome.

Many thanks in anticipation,

Paul

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 09:43 AM

Re: Records

Assuming she stays somewhere near the forecast path, I don't think she is going to worrying about energy/sst

http://www.oceanweather.com/data/

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 09:45 AM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

Nothing has been certain or a given this season, but by this time next month I would think you should be ok

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 09:46 AM

Re: Records

I've GOT IT! "Season of Broken Records" ... "SOBR"

MissBecky

(Weather Guru)

Wed Oct 19 2005 09:46 AM

Re: Records

Oh my god. I went to bed last night and Wilma was a Cat 2. Now I wake up and she's a 5, and the track has been nudged slightly north, more toward Fort Myers.

I think I feel sick.

A question. Last night I was reading posts where people said that the pressures in the Caribbean were naturally higher than in the Atlantic. Is this taken into consideration with deciding things like "which hurricane has the lowest pressure ever"? Does Wilma's 884 correspond to an 884 if she had been in the Atlantic? Thanks.

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 09:46 AM

Re: Records

Well, it's been interesting watching this thing break records while it has been out in the middle of the ocean with thankfully only a very small area affected by hurricane-force winds. I'm not sure what would be best as far as when the inevitable weakening commences... if it starts soon, there will be more time for it to try to reorganize over the warm waters to its immediate NW, while if it hangs on for awhile, it may not have much of a chance to reorganize before conditions become less favorable.

Figures that the first W storm in history will end up having its name retired. Good thing it wasn't Alpha... having to retire a letter from the Greek alphabet would have simply been ridiculous (knock on wood).

wurkey1

(Registered User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 09:55 AM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

Cheers, appreciate that!!! Good luck there!!!

OrlandoDan

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 09:57 AM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

I cannot gurantee the weather. But the middle of November is usualy beautiful here in Orlando. I would keep your plans "on".

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 10:04 AM

Re: Records

Did Wilma hit 884-881 in the same general vicinity as when Gilbert hit 888?

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 10:04 AM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

If Wilma stays a major hurricane, how easy will it be to make that sharp NE turn? Is it easier or more difficult to change direction when strong compared to a weaker storm?
Thanks, Jackie

BullitNutz

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Oct 19 2005 10:04 AM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

Seconding "Damn fine weather here in Orlando during Autumn."

It's very nice. Not cold, but not blazing hot, not all THAT humid, etc. Plus, we have all sorts of cool stuff to do. I recommend the indoor skydiving thing on International Drive, along with Islands of Adventure, Disney, etc.

If your children are reasonably grown up (teens) I'd also recommend Halloween Horror Nights at Islands of Adventure and Universal Studios.

I'm wondering how Wilma will end up, is this new left shift in the track a sign of another "constant shift" as it was earlier, eventually moving all the way from landfall in the Yucatan to Florida? Given, she's far from landfall now, and was even further then, but are there any reasons to believe that she will make landfall in, say, Pasco?

OrlandoDan

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 10:05 AM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

I cannot believe Wilam will retain her intensity of her small eye for very long. Maybe another 12-24 hours. Once she hits the higher latitudes, the colder SSts, and the front, I hope she will weaken rapidly - for all of our sakes in the FL peninsula.

wurkey1

(Registered User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 10:09 AM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

My two girls are 8 and 6 ( well almost 7 and apparently that counts for a lot!!! ) and they are absolutley bouncing as each day gets closer and to have to cancel if the hurricane gets too bad or lingers would be a huge disappointment.
My wife and i have been here before, prior to kids, and loved the area, the people and the weather, fingers crossed!!!!

zacros

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 10:10 AM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

I agree. I am in Orlando this week working and the weather is beautiful. Watching this hurricane has been nothing short of amazing. I would think though that a hurricane that can deepend this rapidly can also weaken this rapidly. We have seen it with several other hurricanes this year. Once they start interacting with land and stronger steering currents, they seem to lose steam. Still quite an impressive display this year in the Gulf and the Caribbean.

OrlandoDan

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 10:16 AM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

Can someone confirm my reasoning. The more west this goes, the more likely it will be picked up the front earlier than expected and the more weakening it will undergo before making landfall. On the other hand, the more northerly the track, the more likely it will have more strength when it makes landfall. I am not sure of the wesrt or north track will effect the location of landfall. I think that is more of a function of the location of the front and theh lattitude of Wilma at the time of interaction.

Spoken

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 10:23 AM

Re: Records

Quote:

Where is LIPhil when you need him?

Do you mean that moderator person? Long Island Phil?

Up to now I'd been assuming he was censured.

No need to show me the door again. And good luck.

(And thanks.)

Hootowl

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 10:25 AM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

NO Pasco!!!

Wow, did I get a surprise at 4:55 this morning. Now, after my long drive to work I find out that you all stayed up and I missed it.

Dang it.

The first thing that crossed my mind when I saw TWC this morning was OMG!!!!!

I am fairly sure that was not expected - nah - positive. I'm down to dial up at home UGH - that will make this weekend even more worrisome. I will depend heavily on what I read here.

I am still having a problem buying into that hard straight line right hook. I am not good at "seeing" the set up of fronts/troughs but I don't remember seeing a cane do quite that.

Semi off topic -
Just a couple of funnies that I have heard the last day or so - both from local mets
" and this is our exclusive GFDL model we are showing you" (that was yesterday) exclusive???
"she can't get any stronger and will lose strength rapidly now" (this morning) riiiiight
LOL

Remember - it's the cone - not the line. She's a biggie!

Just checked the wv loop - she's HUGE!

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 10:38 AM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

Quote:

Wow, did I get a surprise at 4:55 this morning. Now, after my long drive to work I find out that you all stayed up and I missed it. Dang it.
The first thing that crossed my mind when I saw TWC this morning was OMG!!!!! I am fairly sure that was not expected - nah - positive. I'm down to dial up at home UGH - that will make this weekend even more worrisome. I will depend heavily on what I read here.
Remember - it's the cone - not the line. She's a biggie!

The FIRST thing that crossed MY mind cannot be repeated in this forum.

(hint, it starts with an "F").

I think I'm in shock. One of the computer models forecasted on Saturday that we would be dealing with a cat 5 on Tuesday, so I don't really believe anyone should be shocked, but this season has just been insane. Still, the pin-hole eye was a dead giveaway that Wilma was on its way to surpassing Gilbert. The question now becomes when will an EWRC begin and how much will Wilma ultimately weaken. I'm not going to speculate about it getting stronger, it's just not fathomable. Looking at the IR4 loop currently, you can't get a more impressive cloud pattern - you can only get a BIGGER one.

Sadly... and I don't say this lightly and I'm not a MET so it's purely speculation... but... I think we can burn the models now. They (the models) have insufficient information to accurately predict what will happen in something they have never seen before - and they have obviously never seen Wlma before. And... as I said yesterday... I very much remember Gilbert, which is the only basis for comparison in terms of storms or forecast track. Gilbert was forecast to hit Florida, much the same way WIlma now is.

Don't take that as a call for panic. Just pay attention to what the storm is doing. The models have shifted northward again, which puts Tampa back in play and may reduce the risk to Miami, but honestly with a storm like Wilma, if it hits Tampa dead-on it will potentially cause major destruction over all of the peninsula because it's just so big and powerful.

I haven't seen a wind field... but I presume that the incredible winds are limited to a very tiny area around the 2nm eye. Hopefully it will - very soon - caved in on itself. I shutter to think what the next recon will bring.

ETA: Please remember... even though WIlma will by all that is sensible and reasonable and right with the world weaken we hope... the storm surge will not drop off to the level it would otherwise be with a cat 3 storm... Katrina was an excellent demonstration of this. Since the surge is (I presume) generated well ahead of landfall, it doesn't drop off when the winds do. Based upon the current track... Cuba may have a storm surge that is uncomprehensible.

SMOKE

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Oct 19 2005 10:45 AM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

Quote:

Can someone confirm my reasoning. The more west this goes, the more likely it will be picked up by the front earlier than expected and the more weakening it will undergo before making landfall. On the other hand, the more northerly the track, the more likely it will have more strength when it makes landfall. I am not sure of the wesrt or north track will effect the location of landfall. I think that is more of a function of the location of the front and theh lattitude of Wilma at the time of interaction.

A more accurate assumption would be frontal and upper air feature interaction ..... 2 Lows should be a player in the direction and intensity of the storm as it moves in the Gap and heads to the Straits.

Good reasoning but as always, dependent on how simple you want to view the forces involved.

BTW, noticed the ARWO on board .... not Warren, so no eloquent embellishments on the 'nature' of the storm.

tpratch

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 10:50 AM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

Quote:

Don't take that as a call for panic. Just pay attention to what the storm is doing. The models have shifted northward again, which puts Tampa back in play and may reduce the risk to Miami, but honestly with a storm like Wilma, if it hits Tampa dead-on it will potentially cause major destruction over all of the peninsula because it's just so big and powerful.

I haven't seen a wind field... but I presume that the incredible winds are limited to a very tiny area around the 2nm eye. Hopefully it will - very soon - caved in on itself. I shutter to think what the next recon will bring.

The storm isn't that big (we've seen bigger) and the hurricane force winds were last reported at less than 15 miles from the eye. So a tight, 30 nm diameter windfield does NOT mean "major destruction over all of the peninsula ".

Please remember to breathe in through the nose, out through the mouth and relax. It's far, far too early to get excited about the potential damage of a storm forecast to weaken considerably prior to landfall.

There may yet be a time to panic, but that time is not now...

SMaggi49

(Registered User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 10:52 AM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Hi there,

I am monitoring the hurricane situation from Germany and all I could only tell is, that I hope that Wilma will weaken, so it may not make such a desastrous landfall.

I am saying this, just to signalize: We all are interested that everyone of you will be umharmed by any storm ever. Just a very brief wish of good luck for all of you.

Take care and greetings from Germany.

Stefan

charlottefl

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 11:00 AM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

I'm not even going to try to speculate on the exact point of landfall, but let's assume it does landfall somwhere on the FL west coast, is any one else thinkin that it's not going to curve QUITE as sharply to the east as the models are predicting? I can see the NE turn but just not seeing how they're getting that sharp of an angle.
Thanks.

Hurricane Charley '04(Port Charlotte, FL)

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 11:04 AM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Quote:

I'm not even going to try to speculate on the exact point of landfall, but let's assume it does landfall somwhere on the FL west coast, is any one else thinkin that it's not going to curve QUITE as sharply to the east as the models are predicting? I can see the NE turn but just not seeing how they're getting that sharp of an angle.
Thanks.
Hurricane Charley '04(Port Charlotte, FL)

Funny (not ha ha but ironic), I was just thinking the same thing. The "elbow" effect seems a bit unrealistic, but it is possible if the trough really moves in quickly - possible, but I don't think likely. A more realistic expectation is that there will be a gradual turn... the big question being when it begins and how far east it turns. A slower turn could ultimately mean MORE of a turn, because the trough will move in more. It's all a matter of angles.

ETA: Since the plane is no longer in Wilma (I read what said it was the "last report"), anyone know when we will get confirmation of the intensity? I assume the next plane is 3 hours away or so, based upon the POTD from yesterday. Even though its only for historical buffs, it would be interesting to get confirmation of the strongest hurricane on record.

ETA2: On the 1015 IR (can't see the 1045 yet)... the signature is SLIGHTLY weakened, in my opinion. I hope this means we have seen the peak.

Steeler Fan

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 11:07 AM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

I have a question regarding evacuation...

history - where I am in Sarasota we are not considered to be in an area that is an evacuation area for even a CAT 5, nor are we in an area that is predicted to be affected by storm surge from any size storm (got this info. from a link Margie posted yesterday - Thanks). Incredibly, we are only 1.5 miles from Sarasota Bay and they still say the surge from even a 5 would not affect us. We are considering going further inland and have started the process of reservations for several days, but due to the infastructure on the west coast, I see a huge parking lot of I75 and I4, due to the evacuees from further south of us.

The problem is that I will not leave our dog behind, so have sought out places that will accomodate, but feel that we would be taking lodging from someone who may need it much more than us. How much faith should we put in the surge models out there? Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated!

Thanks in advance...

tpratch

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 11:16 AM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

Steeler Fan. There are several E/W roads worth considering.

SR 70, SR 64, SR 60 - any one will make you far better time than I-4. When I lived in Bradenton, we used to head south to SR 70 and take it across the state to avoid I-4.

My parents evacuated for Frances last year (from Brevard) to stay with friends in Bradenton. They went South on 95 and made great time, then east on SR 70 and barely saw another living soul. Meanwhile, 95 North was a parking lot for the next dozen+ hours. I went out for a drive (getting antsy) about 4 hours before any real TS force winds. 95 was completely empty...

Just some info to consider.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 11:16 AM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Quote:

Hi there,

I am monitoring the hurricane situation from Germany and all I could only tell is, that I hope that Wilma will weaken, so it may not make such a desastrous landfall.

I am saying this, just to signalize: We all are interested that everyone of you will be umharmed by any storm ever. Just a very brief wish of good luck for all of you.

Take care and greetings from Germany.

Stefan

Very kind of you Stefan, Thanks!

I'm also worried about the turn NE. It looks so drastic. I guess we'll have to wait and see. As I said before, it's gonna be a long 3 days!

Jackie

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 11:18 AM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

When you think about a hurricane turning, you have to visualize a truck hauling a tripple wide mobile home making a 90 degree turn in a four way stop with no stoplight. It is not going to happen quickly and it is not going to be neat. The lines will be crossed and a certain amount of acreage will be borrowed on both sides. As for whether or not Sarasota Bay will or won't be effected later on. The force that was generated by Wilma while she was a CAT 5 will be felt long after she has weakened to whatever weakeness she will become. How long that lasts will depend upon how long she maintains CAT 5 status. The only thing that can be turned on or off rapidly is a Television reporter claiming to be in a CAT 5 wind making an onsight report.

tpratch

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 11:33 AM

Surge

Remember that in order to gather up anything but minimal storm surge, Wilma will have to maintain intensity AND enlarge her eye. As it stands right now, she hasn't been Cat 5 for very long, and has had a pinhole for an eye. A 2 or 4nm eye is not going to be able to carry much in the way of surge.

funky

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 11:36 AM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

i have also been following this and all the other storms in the past few years and it does seem to tell that the best time to leave is about 4-6 hours before it hits. the roads seem to clear up then. but that is a risky thing to do if you are the one doing it! i live off of sr70 and i75 in lakewood ranch, and we're staying. we're pretty far inland, and hopefully no debris gets kicked around from all of the construction around here. but its just me and my wife (and our little papillon).

cross your fingers!

Quote:

Steeler Fan. There are several E/W roads worth considering.

SR 70, SR 64, SR 60 - any one will make you far better time than I-4. When I lived in Bradenton, we used to head south to SR 70 and take it across the state to avoid I-4.

My parents evacuated for Frances last year (from Brevard) to stay with friends in Bradenton. They went South on 95 and made great time, then east on SR 70 and barely saw another living soul. Meanwhile, 95 North was a parking lot for the next dozen+ hours. I went out for a drive (getting antsy) about 4 hours before any real TS force winds. 95 was completely empty...

Just some info to consider.

Random Chaos

(Weather Analyst)

Wed Oct 19 2005 11:37 AM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

I wake up...and WOW!

I don't have anything to say else on this thing. Incredible. Models will take a while to catch up with this huge change.

A few links for those that haven't quite gotten the message yet:
Recon: http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/URNT12.KNHC
IR Float: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
Discussion: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/190851.shtml

Steeler Fan

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 11:42 AM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

Tpratch - thanks for the advise on alternate E/W routes...also caught a later post you made regarding the eye size and storm surge (hopefully the eye will remain fairly smallish - resulting in a narrower corridor and less area being affected by a surge).

Marknole

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Oct 19 2005 11:43 AM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Although the models haven't been great so far, the active SW jet forecast over the GOM makes the forecast (direction and intensity) much more plausible. (Scary yes, but way more predictable). Anyone remember Hurricane Floyd? ('99?) It was heading due west, towards Daytona. All forecasts predicted a sharp right turn. It wasn't happening, then as the center came within 40 miles of the coast, it turned on a dime.

Once the westerlies grab hold, I think we will see a more ragged, less tropical and rapidly weakening system. We've all been accused of wishcasting, but I would like to see a South-of-Marco landfall, giving the 'Glades a much needed October soaking.

Random Chaos

(Weather Analyst)

Wed Oct 19 2005 11:45 AM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

Latest IR and WV frame in the loops is showing a weakening of the intensity right near the core on an east-west axis. Could be the prelude to a ERC.

This is one beast to keep an eye on (pun not intended).

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 11:50 AM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

Quote:

Latest IR and WV frame in the loops is showing a weakening of the intensity right near the core on an east-west axis. Could be the prelude to a ERC.
This is one beast to keep an eye on (pun not intended).

They also show a rather significant jog - yes, I'm calling it a jog, but a significant one - to thw WSW. It could be that when the ERC finishes, we'll see the new eye form southwest of the old one. Or it could be that the current eye is moving out of the way so the new one can form in its old place. Nah, that would never happen. Then again, if you'd said in June that we'd have 3 cat 5 hurricanes this season, you would have been laughed at probably.

I just looked at WU"s historical plots. Nearly all major hurricanes in the vicinity of where Wilma now is ultimately hit the Florida peninsula.

Sheeper

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 11:53 AM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

well, here we go again. From Vero Beach, FL we are starting to put our Red Cross plans into effect. senior leadership meeting later today. Early word is we'll open shelters though I expect they will be for evacuees and folks in low-lying areas here.

I'm still waiting to see if the State of FL calls me up on this one yet.

Now for my guess.....Here on the Treasure Coast I'd expect at most a minimal hurricane once Wilma crosses the state. Any mets here can shed more insight on this for me but i'd expect the front pushing on Wilma and increased shear to take her down before west coast landfall, then interaction with the land mass will take even more steam from her. So on the treasure coast I'll expect a very windy, quite wet saturday & sunday with TS winds posibbly minimal Cat1.

For some real good info, tune into our local EM guy at www.irces.com. Nathan McCollum gives a real good view and explanation of what's going on. I am hoping that his report today will echo my guesses here.

Anyone wanna take bets on how about back into the Atlantic and intensifying again? The way this season is going, anything can happen!

Emergency Management Rule #1: "If you care more about your things and property than you do about your life and the lives of your family then you will die". If you think that maybe you should evacuate....then YOU SHOULD!

all, stay dry......stay safe

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 12:01 PM

CONFIRMED per NHC: Wilma strongest hurricane ever in Atlantic Basin

Per the 8am ET advisory, the recon information has been confirmed. Wilma - with a central pressure now down to 882 - is the most intense hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin.

Maximum winds have maintained at near 175mph.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 12:02 PM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

Interesting note. If Wilma makes landfall in Florida then every state on the Gulf Coast will have been affected by a storm that
reached cat 5 status this season, those storms being Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. The states affected-TX, LA, MS, AL, and FL.
FL felt some effects from Katrina also but Wilma looks like she will have a direct impact on the state.
Rita followed closely behind Katrina and now we have Wilma at Cat 5 less than a month after Rita. Lots of records this season.
Let's hope this is the last big hurricane of the season.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 12:03 PM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

This is going to be a very interesting buoy to watch. She may track dead center right over it.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056&unit=E&tz=EST

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 12:04 PM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

Quote:

This is going to be a very interesting buoy to watch. She may track dead center right over it.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056&unit=E&tz=EST

I wonder where she'll deposit it? (have to have some humor in this nightmare).

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 12:09 PM

Re: CONFIRMED per NHC: Wilma strongest hurricane ever in Atlantic Basin

882 mbar. How far will it go???

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 12:09 PM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

Still too early to tie down a landfall point. Would suggest keeping eyes open from the Keys to Tampa. My thought is that the windfield will expand prior to landfall. Cat 2 seems to be most likely with enough forward speed to maintain Cat 2 to high Cat 1 in a very rapid Charliesque transit of the state. This is not a Charlie, though. There should not be a very intense storm, however, the wind field will be much larger. I am still not sold that the trough and front will push in quite as fast as what is being forecast. Should start to have that clear up later today and tonight. By tomorrow night, unless Wilma does something odd, I think the forecast should be able to narrow a bit. Does not take a whole lot to cause a 80-150 mile error this far out. At least she won't be a monster when she gets to Florida.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 12:09 PM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

Quote:

Let's hope this is the last big hurricane of the season.

I *really* don't think the NHC wants to retire the names Alpha, Beta, and/or Gamma... but based upon the way things are going, it may happen. The water should have cooled down some - it IS October, isn't it? So, the intensity should have peaked in terms of monster storms, but conditions appear to be just regenerating.

The first visible imagery for Wilma is available... LOOK at that thing...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

incredible.

nicolew

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 12:12 PM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

Quote:

Interesting note. If Wilma makes landfall in Florida then every state on the Gulf Coast will have been affected by a storm that
reached cat 5 status this season, those storms being Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. The states affected-TX, LA, MS, AL, and FL.
FL felt some effects from Katrina also but Wilma looks like she will have a direct impact on the state.
Rita followed closely behind Katrina and now we have Wilma at Cat 5 less than a month after Rita. Lots of records this season.
Let's hope this is the last big hurricane of the season.

Take it from someone in Miami-Dade County - we felt more than just "some effects" from Katrina - no power for a week, trees down all over and leaks in roofs!

Domino

(Weather Guru)

Wed Oct 19 2005 12:21 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

As stupid as this may sound myself and my entire family are flying to Miami on Saturday morning for a Sunday cruise. I keep trying to figure out the wind field forecast and the potential for a flight cancellation...seems rather petty given the situation. Best I can figure we'll be okay so long as we get into Miami before around 6pm... If we don't we're going to try for Orlando and drive...

God help us.

Random Chaos

(Weather Analyst)

Wed Oct 19 2005 12:26 PM

Re: CONFIRMED per NHC: Wilma strongest hurricane ever in Atlantic Basin

Quote:

882 mbar. How far will it go???

Just noting that this was confirmed in the 8am Advisory.

--RC

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 12:32 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Quote:

As stupid as this may sound myself and my entire family are flying to Miami on Saturday morning for a Sunday cruise. I keep trying to figure out the wind field forecast and the potential for a flight cancellation...seems rather petty given the situation. Best I can figure we'll be okay so long as we get into Miami before around 6pm... If we don't we're going to try for Orlando and drive...

God help us.

If flights will be cancelled at Miami chances are far from remote that flights to Orlando will be cancelled as well. I think it doesn't really matter where you fly, it all depends on the further evolution of this monster, the forecasts have way too much uncertainty at this time. You probably will not have a good judgement before 1 day before landfall.

Maybe driving wouldn't be a great idea, concidering that the coastline may have faced an evacuation by then. Evacuating states are generally not know for their "easy driving" potential, especially not Florida

Btw, lekker hoor ff met een cruise, tis gewoon dikke pech dat dat ding er nu zit.

abyrd

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 12:43 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

As to the cruise, the airport in Orlando closes when winds are expected to be 50 mph or higher. I might worry about the cruise being cancelled depending on the track. I left out of Port Canaveral the day Katrina was hitting S. Florida. We were the only Carnival ship in Florida to leave as they closed Port Everglades and Miami that day. Keep calling the cruise lines. The good thing is if you do get out, the ships are really stable. We had 10 foot waves out of Port Canaveral but didn't feel much at all.

bobbutts

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 01:05 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Re: cruises
Here's my advice.. Stay away from FL until this thing passes. We need the roads and hotels. Lives are at stake so try and put your family vacation into that perspective.

ralphfl

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 01:06 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

If the GDFL holds true its not as bad as some may think of course this is 1 model.THE NEW 06 just out GDFL shows the same hit area as last 4 runs which is about punta Gorda as a strong cat 2.Now it may not weaken that much but you got to rememeber they can go down as fast as up.NOBODY should let there guard down but there is hope on the other side of the tunnel.

SMOKE

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Oct 19 2005 01:06 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

IMHO .. flights from MIA and ORL will be CNX due to the storm and obviously connecting flights will be delayed. ARTCC Atlanta, Jacksnville and Miami will be coordinating the delays.

BTW, the crew debrief to the storm and it's power .... WOW to a man. Experienced crew too. They were very impressed with it's characteristics, small eye, steep pressure profile and strong winds.

"There I was at five thousand feet" .....

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 01:23 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

My suggestion is to check with your cruise line. Odds are good that there will be flight cancelations. Airports may be open; but the airleines will preemptively cancel the flights to avoid having their equipment in danger. Your cruise ship will likely be delayed. It will probably be out at seas an extra day or two on the trip before and will not be able to come in until the storm passes. Be flexible.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 01:28 PM

Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity

Yes...I mentioned yesterday that she'd be going right over it. Windspeeds are about the same as last night but wave heights already doubled, up to 12 feet. Will probably see 70 ft waves before it stops sending back data. The eyewall is still so small (hurricane force winds still only a 30nm diam) that it's not that likely she'll see the highest winds.

Good morning -- haha -- just got up in a stupor from my 2-hour nap and can't believe things are just the same as they were at 5am. Gotta go get ready for work. This is still so unreal...almost more so in the light of day. A few of us here on the board went through what you could say was a very strange experience last night, tracking Wilma. We also probably set a record...related to posts. A lot of them. Also probably the most posts with "wow" that you'll ever see. We ran out of adjectives. Enjoy catching up and reading them.

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 01:28 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Lets keep it on the weather all,, we talk about the same stuff every storm about airports,roads, etc. Those are more for the FOXNEWS and CNN boards. TY

keystonelight

(Registered User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 01:30 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

If it were me in your shoes..I'd try to keep with my vacation plans. There are plenty of hotels in this state so it's not like your going to be taking someone else's bed..and if you do get caught in the middle of this thing, you will at least be in Orlando or Miami - on the side of the state opposite the side where landfall is going to be...but that's just what I would do...I take my vacations seriously.

Mag

(Registered User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 01:30 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

I just moved to Florida from Long Island. On its current path what can be expected in Cocoa Beach?
I just joined the site, my wife thinks that I am insane, as I was up almost all night on this site. It is by far the best Hurricane site out of the 1000's that are out there.Thanks

FlaMommy

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 01:31 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Good morning everyone...although dont think i would say "Good"...whats the latest on Wilma....i just woke up and still not functioning enough to read all 14 pages...im in shock as is everyone else....can someone please fill me in...thanks becky

Wingman51

(Weather Guru)

Wed Oct 19 2005 01:34 PM

An so it Begins

From Monroe County EMS - 9:00am (The Keys)

mandatory Evac of all Visitors

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 01:38 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Quote:

I just moved to Florida from Long Island. On its current path what can be expected in Cocoa Beach?
I just joined the site, my wife thinks that I am insane, as I was up almost all night on this site. It is by far the best Hurricane site out of the 1000's that are out there.Thanks

Welcome, I live in Melbourne. Suntree to be exact. The truth is we don't know yet what to expect. It will all depend on whether or not she goes north, south or over us. Just keep updated!

BTW, right now the models have her going under us. That would give us the weaker side.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 01:46 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Just looked at the first visual sat image. Noted some interesting things about Wilma's appearance. The hurricane-force windfield must have generated outward. We'll find out from the buoy. Also the slight shear is making for a very strange-looking effect over the now almost-uniformly-flat CDO; almost as if she's a cinnamon roll coated with icing.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 01:50 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Sorry if this is off topic but I just noticed that there are over 1000 people viewing the site. I think this storm has lots of people unnerved. Honestly, this site really helps put things in perspective though. It's a great way to stay informed while learning alot.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 01:52 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

The 06Z GFDL has winds dropping to 96 knots and then amping up to 103 knots at landfall. Given the cooler water off SWFL and the westerly shear is this realistic?

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 01:55 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

The cloud tops show a warming trend, but the eye has not become any larger or smaller, in fact, it still looks very good. The warming cloudtops however may be the end of the intensification process. Maybe a final decrease in pressure will be found in the 15Z advisory, but after that I think this bad lady will weaken.

The Force 2005

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 01:55 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Well, I must post a comment on all those non believers and to those who take it upon themselves to graveyard my previous posts about Wilma gaining CAT 5 strength, what do all of you say now. We now have the most intense hurricane ever, surpassing gilbert of 1982. 882MB

So I take credit in calling this, and those who didn't believe it, well you should better understand the patterns at hands, and the enviroment that surrounds these storms.

The Force

i say... gilbert was in 1988. -HF

Note It was graveyarded because it belonged in the forecast lounge, as stated more than once previously. This does too, in fact.

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 01:58 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Hi everyone...I've been a long-time (3 year) lurker on the site and, first of all, the community is amazing and has quite a few bright minds.

I would like to add a question, however. It seems to me that, given the pressure and the eye diameter, that the windspeeds must far exceed 175 mph. For instance, Katrina had an eye that was many multiples larger than Wilmas, she had a higher central pressure, and yet, the max. sustained winds are the same. If I understand history correctly, intensely low pressures with small diameter eyewalls correlate to extremely high windspeeds such as those in Camille. Another storm that comes to mind is Tropical Cyclone Tracy that hit Darwin, Australia (which is thought to have been a strong 5). My thought is that the hurricane hunters were simply unable to find the core of the strongest winds in the storm due to the diffculty of taking measurements within an extremely small (and violent) eyewall.

Thoughts and opinions....could I be wrong here?

abyrd

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:02 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Quote:

The 06Z GFDL has winds dropping to 96 knots and then amping up to 103 knots at landfall. Given the cooler water off SWFL and the westerly shear is this realistic?

A common mistake in looking at the GFDL is those are not surface winds. The surface winds are 15-25 % lower than shown. That would make it approximately 83 knots at landfall just south of Fort Myers. The amazing thing about the GFDL is that it doesn't loose any power crossing the state and exiting between Melbourne and Vero at 84 knots!

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:04 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

How about the luck I got.

I was having new hurricane apnels made for my house & they just happened to install them yesterday. I'm missing a few, but that only leaves 2 windows 50% covered.

Is it true the hurricane winds only extend out 15 miles? At a storm travelling 15 mph, at least its not a prolonged event.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:05 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

But let's remember that weakening is a relative term. It will undergo a couple of ERCs during the next few days, but it will still be a formidable storm when it makes landfall, so don't let your guard down. Weakening to a Cat 4/3 at landfall is nothing to sneeze at, and the Orlando met saying a few showers and breezy over the weekend is a foolish statement to make at this point.

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:06 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Force...you took credit last night, and we've (you've) discussed this "graveyard" deal for at least an hour last night. Now it's REALLY dead, okay? Pat yourself on the back for a job well done, and move on to what's happening now.
We have more to be concerned with than what you were or weren't right about 3 days ago, okay? For the sake of those who are in the "cone", would you please move on?
I kindly thank you in advance.

ralphfl

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:08 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

never said to let it down but the GDFL pains a cat 2 at landfall so there is hope.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:08 PM

6Z NOGAPS a little further north than the 00Z..

Just looked at the 06Z NOGAPs, appears to have also shifted slightly north. And before I hear from some of you, NOGAPS is also run at 06Z and 18Z from the FNMOC.navy.mil website.

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:09 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Good question! I think I heard the answer earlier on CNN: their met said that the windspeeds may have been much higher than 175, but the plane wasn't there to record it. So, you may be absolutely correct.
And let me tell ya something: I'm not all that sure that I really WANT to know what the highest wind speeds were that the planes missed!

Ed in Va

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:10 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

A question for my brother who has a Naples condo 1/2 mile from the ocean. He says the elevation is 11'. Any flooding problems for him?

Thanks.

HanKFranK

(User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:13 PM

wilma freakshow

if anybody is wondering what the labor day hurricane might have looked like... there's probably your answer. i'll reuse the analogy that wilma is a midget super hurricane embedded in a large tropical storm. it shouldn't be able to maintain that profile--i'd expect to eyewall cycles result in a much weaker but broader wind field over the next day or so. there's just no way that structure can hold up for long. thelittle inner core has really been zipping around inside the center... i guess it's easy to make cycloidal loops when the pinhole eye is only 2-5 miles wide.
down the road gfdl has brought the terminal track off the northeast well left, now showing a solid hit on the maine coast. will be telling if the nogaps still has the storm impacting new england. the 00z euro actually sent it further out to sea as it has it loitering an extra day in the caribbean and not catching the early trough connection.
the forecast modeling in the short term is clustering on a more south florida track, in particular the naples area. i'm going to keep my window north of there for now, but the early consensus has come together a bit south of where i was expecting. very sharp recurvatures like the one depicted aren't uncommon in the historical database, so there is a precedence for what is shown.
the saturday-monday period looks to be a historic one in terms of hurricane impact.
HF 1413z19october

ralphfl

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:15 PM

Re: 6Z NOGAPS a little further north than the 00Z..

you are correct it did move very little north and its on the psu site as well why would anyone say anything about that?

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:16 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

WILMA'S THREAT TO FLORIDA'S TREASURE COAST

Here's a funny one from Accuweather: I thought the Treasure coast was from Vero Beach to Stuart!!!!!!!!!!!

Accuweather.com forecasters are calling Hurricane Wilma a dangerous Category 5 storm, with winds packing 175 mph.

Wilma is expected to lose strength, falling to a Category 3 storm before making landfall on Florida's Gulf Coast on the weekend. It is expected to pack the same power Katrina had when it slammed into the U.S. in August, killing more than 1,200 people.

Wilma's path will likely threaten areas that were devastated by Hurricane Charley. The Category 4 storm was the first of the six hurricanes that have struck Florida since August 2004.

Supermarkets and building supply stores in the Sunshine State are stocked with extra food, water, ice and other supplies in anticipation of a rush by residents. Florida's Department of Emergency Management reminds Floridians living in the Keys and the peninsula to make sure that their family disaster preparedness plans are completed during the next few days.

Sorry, I highted the area of the paragraph that said treasure coast, but it disappeared. It said Wilmas path would likely threaten the Treasure Coast areas devastated by Charley! The Treasure coast didn'
t even get touched by Charley!

NewWatcher

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:16 PM

Re: wilma freakshow

Quote:

i'm going to keep my window north of there for now, HF 1413z19october

how far north is your window hf?

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:18 PM

Re: 6Z NOGAPS a little further north than the 00Z..

Morning all, does not seem as if I missed much, took a little snoozer and I give up being amazed this year or with Wilma, 10:17, still Cat 5 Amazing!!!!! Was there an ERC at all?

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:19 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Accuweather likes to toot its own horn too much. The guy they have on the national news shows is annoying and egotistical. The GFDL shows a 2 at landfall. There's no reason to cause a panic yet.

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:20 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Well I guess JB gets an "F" for geography. Also, didn't bother to mention that most of those 1200 died from the levy breaches; oops?

Wxwatcher2

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:20 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Quote:

Force...you took credit last night, and we've (you've) discussed this "graveyard" deal for at least an hour last night. Now it's REALLY dead, okay? Pat yourself on the back for a job well done, and move on to what's happening now.
We have more to be concerned with than what you were or weren't right about 3 days ago, okay? For the sake of those who are in the "cone", would you please move on?
I kindly thank you in advance.

Thanks Colleen.......well said.

Good Morning everyone. It was a surprise to wake up to the news of the strength and intensity of Wilma this morning.
Now is not the time to pat ourselves on the back for our forecasts or brag about ourselves.
Now is the time for those of us who live in the Florida Peninsula to make our preparations for a strong and dangerous hurricane.
During the next day or so please carefully review your hurricane plans and do what you need to do in order to protect your life and property as best you can.
The track of Wilma over the state is still not certain. It looks as if it will cross in the Naples / Ft. Meyers area over Lake Ochechobee as it transits the state. However, as we know all too well from past experiences, tracks can and do change so if you live anywhere from the Keys to Cedar Key please be aware of the future track of Wilma this of course is especially true if you are on or along the coast.

The saying "prepare for the worst and Hope for the Best" is good advice for all of us.
Thank you Mod's and Mets who help make this a great sight for all of us.

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:23 PM

Re: 6Z NOGAPS a little further north than the 00Z..

Lake,, plz give out the link to the 6z plz,,,not just the website so most can find it, like me. I dont have the link to it anymore. TY

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:25 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Quote:

I'm not all that sure that I really WANT to know what the highest wind speeds were that the planes missed!

Yes, sometimes ignorance is bliss.

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:25 PM

Re: wilma freakshow

Just heard this on CNN...and I think it can be verified by looking at how big this storm has gotten: Hurricane force winds extend out 30 miles across (15 on each side) and TS force extend 300 miles across, 150 miles on either side. It doesn't look that big until they zoom in on it, that's when it gets your heart racing.

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:29 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

It's possible that the winds were (are) stronger than 175 mph... unfortunately, they did not get any good surface wind obs from any dropsondes into the eyewall during the last visit. They were using the standard 10% reduction from FL winds at 700mb. Dropsondes from the plane that was in there before the last one were showing surface winds very similar to the flight-level winds, so if that profile persisted, the surface winds may have been more in the 165 knot range. Given the very unusual structure of the system, the "by-the-book" reduction of flight-level winds may not have been appropriate, but it was all we have to go on.

Cloud tops have warmed a fair amount, but the overall organization still looks healthy. For the sake of posterity, I wouldn't mind if it holds near whatever it bottomed out at (the pressure was still falling like a rock when the recon plane left, so who knows how low the pressure got) until the next plane gets in there, and then I hope the inner core falls apart, which is bound to happen at some point soon.

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:32 PM

Re: wilma freakshow

We won't know the real window until it makes its first move NE'wrd. A local met said wisely it is really a matter of hours, in that an hour or two difference makes a huge difference on land fall in this instance because once it goes it will come to the coast like a watermelon seed being shot out between your fingers..
so if the turn is delayed an hour for example..it could eat up about 30 miles of coast line. The point is the entire cone is under the gun in about 80-90 hours, and any reasonable certainty in land fall will be ascertained probably on Thursday Morning.
This is just a very dynamic situation and all the parts have not fallen into place yet. I am not sure even these latest runs have fully factored in the intensity changes in the storm; one would think they had...but...how long the storm keeps the intensity will also impact what is approaching from the west. So later runs will keep refining this.
Also the steering ahead of the trough looks pretty steep South to North to me, so that while Wilma may be pushed generally eastward it will be travelijng more northward at the same time or a NE rather than ENE turn is possible. Again intensity at the time of convergence will be a factor here.
All points along the coast probably from Pinellas/ Pasco south should be ready to move quickly.

vineyardsaker

(Weather Guru)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:37 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Hi,

Being a newbie here (posting, I have lurked around since 2 years) I would very much appreciate some expert opinions on the following:

I live in New Smyrna Beach, just south of Daytona, and hurricane Charley was very bad for us: a tornado ripped through my neighbor's house and we had major damage (my family spend two quite frightening hours in a walk-in-closet). Now it does look that Wilma is taking very much a Charley-like course, except that it is bigger and stronger. Some comments here stated that Wilma might not even loose any strength at all while crossing the Florida Peninsula. So my question is:

What kind of threat is Volusia County looking at? Could this be a Charley+ hurricane?

We have the option of evacuating to Orlando on Sat. morning to a sturdier house but that would put us closer to the hurricane. What should we do?

Many thanks!

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:38 PM

Re: wilma freakshow

Still waiting on the 06z link at the NOGAPS site.........

Frank P

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:43 PM

Moving SW

Maybe its going to do another Mitch, Florida could only hope, and plow into central america... it's appears to be moving towards the SW or WSW on the vis loops... its not going W or WNW by no means.... strange

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:45 PM

GFDL

The central pressure forecast by the GFDL corresponds more with a category 3 storm. I'm not a big fan of the GFDL wind output. The model does suggest that Wilma will grow quite a bit in size.

As others have alluded to, there is a chance that there could be significant interaction with a mid-latitude system to its west in the longer range, which could result in a very strong low pressure system which may or may not still have tropical characteristics affecting New England. Such things are very difficult to forecast, though, and Florida will have to deal with this first.

Lsr1166

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:45 PM

Re: Moving SW

From the NHC 11:00 am advisory
...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...17.4 N... 83.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 882 MB.
...

Ronn

(User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:47 PM

Re: Moving SW

Quote:

Maybe its going to do another Mitch, Florida could only hope, and plow into central america... it's appears to be moving towards the SW or WSW on the vis loops... its not going W or WNW by no means.... strange

Wilma has been doing small cyclonic loops and stair-stepping all morning. This is very common, especially in storms with small eyes. Average motion is still WNW.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:49 PM

Re: wilma freakshow

Something to remember for those of us inland or on the east coast of FL is the tornado threat. I found this information,

"Hurricanes making landfall along the southern coast of the United States and recurving northeastward are more likely to produce tornadoes than those that make landfall along the east coast or those that make landfall along the southern coast but do not recurve".

It's a very interesting report. If you want to read it, it is a PDF format. Here's the link:

http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/verboutetal05b.pdf

Frank P

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:49 PM

Re: Moving SW

there is no way this is moving WNW looking at the vis sat loops at the moment.... now maybe its going to resume that motion shortly, and this is but a brief wobble to the WSW or SW... but WNW... not from the loops I'm looking at....

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:51 PM

WV Loop

Check out this WV loop...look at the feature just of the NC coastline...looks like it is about to enter the Atlantic. If that happens, wouldn't it then be plausible thinking that Wilma will get a little further west before she is able to begin to make that turn? Or am I just losing it?

WV Loops

Also, the two features that were players in the Western CONUS do not look like they will be able to combine, as it appears that the Gulf of Alaska feature that has now moved in is further north than the one that started in CA and is now near the midwest, which, btw, looks like it's going at a pretty good clip :

West CONUS WV LOOPS

Also: here's one that show the ENTIRE U.S.:
Entire Picture of the US

If you put these all together, it appears to me that this storm will likely make landfall further north than now anticipated.

Then again, I'm not a met, so I'm not really sure what ALL of these different features show.
Please feel free to enlighten me.

Ronn

(User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:55 PM

Re: Moving SW

Quote:

there is no way this is moving WNW looking at the vis sat loops at the moment.... now maybe its going to resume that motion shortly, and this is but a brief wobble to the WSW or SW... but WNW... not from the loops I'm looking at....

Yes, it should resume the WNW motion shortly. It did the same thing about three hours ago. Averaged out over six hours of time, the motion is still WNW.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:57 PM

Re: WV Loop

Does it look like Wilma's eyewall is breaking down on the last few frames of the IR loop?

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir_loop.gif

Frank P

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:57 PM

Re: Moving SW

yeah I agree, I think its at the bottom of the loop right now looking at the vis loops... I don't think I've ever seen such an exaggerated cyclonic loop that Wilma is exhibiting at the moment..

Thunder

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Oct 19 2005 02:59 PM

Re: WV Loop

More north is not good... How large is this thing? Can it cover the entire state of FL.?

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 03:00 PM

FOR SCOTT NOGAPS 06Z

Scott,

Sorry just stepped away from computer. Click on the Following: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/logout.do?requestId=1126908274163.1786.1

Click on Public Charts no User ID Required, click on appropriate Map

abyrd

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 03:04 PM

slight adjustment north at 11

The updated track shows a slight adjustment to the north as it crosses FLorida. Basically, the 5 a.m. had Wilma going over the south shore of Lake Okechobee. Now it has it going over the north shore.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 03:07 PM

Re: Moving SW

Quote:

Averaged out over six hours of time, the motion is still WNW.

That's right, I've got the plots and it's moved WNW over the last 6 hours.

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 03:09 PM

Re: WV Loop

I don't think it's breaking down, I think it may be going through an eyewall replacement cycle. Like it has been said many times here, it is very hard for a storm to maintain the intensity that Wilma had for a long period of time.

misunderestimator

(Registered User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 03:13 PM

Rapid intensifying

The one thing that Katrina, Rita, and Wilma have in common was the incredibly fast intensification. In all cases, this seems to have taken both the NHC and the very smart people on this board by surprise. It seems like yesterday, y'all were saying "maybe this will be a Cat 3" and then within 12 hours it is a Cat 5 monster. I remember the same surprising run-up with Rita. So...why is it that the intensification models and all of the experts were so wrong?

This should not be taken as a slight on the models or experts, I'll repeat that I am in awe of the NHC's ability to get the cone "right" 3 or even 5 days out for these unpredictable forces of nature...but they seem to be off in predicting intensity.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 03:17 PM

Re: WV Loop

Sorry, that's what I meant, just used the wrong words...

damejune2

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 03:18 PM

Re: slight adjustment north at 11

The NHC track is north of original track and slightly south of the Accuweather track. The models have been in agreement since last night and show a path right around the same general area as the NHC and Accuweather.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 03:20 PM

Re: Rapid intensifying

Actually, at 11:00 am yesterday they mentioned it: "A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX..."

Not sure if they expected what we got though..LOL!

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 03:23 PM

Re: WV Loop

Ty Lake for that,, I use to have it back in the days but lost it. I use to use that for my quick NOGAPS run I liked to use.
Speaking of the 6z your right,,its back near FT MYERS..to Vero Beach..
12z coming in now,,and thru 72hrs,, its still in gulf but might be heading towards Sarasota? Will find out in 10-15 min.

Rabbit

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 03:24 PM

Re: WV Loop

eyewall breakdown? not likely, as it is common for the cloud tops to warm as it gets later into daylight

Also, Mitch is not a good example to use for a northward turn not happening--Mitch was forecast to go much further west (even during the northward part) then Wilma, and Mitch was forecast to go WNW-NW, not NNW-NE

Genesis

(Weather Guru)

Wed Oct 19 2005 03:24 PM

Here we go!

Looking at the WV loop it appears that the "connection" between the Alaska low and the one over what was the NV/CA line is not going to happen.

The CA/NV low is moving ENE, and is now over central Colorado. The ridging looks pretty weak and getting weaker - the forecast for it to collapse looks to be verifying.

The second impulse of energy is now over roughly Oregon, and is clearly not going to "catch" the first one. So the "merged trough" scenario looks like its down the chute, and we're going to get amplification - as I expected - instead.

The models have responded to this by turning Wilma more towards the north after it exits the peninsula, with the "endpoint" of the most recent GFDL run now impacting squarely on the Maine coast, and 100kt winds just off the coast at impact (!) This forecast predicts tropical storm force winds from basically Mobile all the way up the atlantic seaboard starting at 00Z on the 23rd.

I still think the track is perhaps a bit south - but not by much. I also believe that given the evolving pattern above there is a significant risk of a "raking" storm that runs up the seaboard while remaining offshore, eventually phasing with the front and producing a hellacious coastal storm event in the Northeast.

The big story on this one may not be the impact on Florida - although that certainly looks to be significant - it may be what happens up the seaboard a couple of days later......

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 03:28 PM

Re: Here we go!

Genesis, given what you're saying, is it fair to say the further west she goes now the further north landfall in FL should be?

(Weather Guru)

Wed Oct 19 2005 03:29 PM

Re: Here we go!

I literally did a spit take when I saw the numbers this morning. I'm a tad worried - my parents are on a week-long cruise, which was already diverted from the west caribbean to the east caribbean. I'm supposed to be picking them up at 8am Sunday in Ft Lauderdale, heh.

This has been a damned amazing season.

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 03:32 PM

Re: Here we go!

Yes, I saw that too and that is why I posted those WV loops earlier.
Our local NBC met just said that once Wilma emerges into the GOM, it is quite likely it will expand even more than it has now, quite possibly covering the entire peninsula of Florida. There's a happy thought, huh?
What I also found interesting whas that at 8am (or pm) Saturday it is forecasted to be a 4, and 24 hours later it is going to be in the open Atlantic as a 2. So what the heck are we supposed to get windwise?

orlandocanewatcher

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 03:35 PM

Re: Here we go!

I sure hope not....coming further North that is....let's all just wish it south of the Keyes right through the straights....not that it is likely but clearly the best scenario for all of us !

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 03:38 PM

Re: Here we go!

What worries me is the speed. Glad she'll be gone sooner but by the time we know her intentions she'll be coming in so fast. I'm worried many people will wait to long to make plans. Especially if they're watching that black line that we all know to not watch.

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 03:38 PM

Re: Here we go!

The eye is really starting to bounce around and the system seems to be losing some convective symmetry, so an ERC could be imminent.

flarrfan

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 03:38 PM

Surge

How would the currently projected sharp right turn affect surge? Common sense tells this layman that a Cat 5 surge being pushed in one direction would likely dissipate considerably with the kind of turn and weakening the models are showing. Ivan, Katrina, Rita all came ashore in a relatively straight path from the Cat 5 status, with just a slight NE jog to all of them toward the end. However, if the models are right with Wilma, I have a problem seeing that Cat 5 surge lasting through such a sharp turn. Other thoughts?

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Oct 19 2005 03:41 PM

Re: slight adjustment north at 11

Does this mean that the folks here in the St Pete/Tampa area can breath a sigh of relief?

Myles

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 03:43 PM

Re: Here we go!

Wilma is certainly appears to be going through an ERC. Dvorak, IR, and WV all show a less intense storm. There are, however, large convective bands starting to spiral around the CDO again, probably starting the expansion of the windfield that people have been predicting would happen to the small core of extremely fast winds. If it completes this ERC before it leaves the perfect conditions required for a cat 5, then it may become a large cat 5 like Rita or Katrina, but its unlikely.

Wilma is also going through the cyclonic loops that someone already said. It's been through one already and is finishing an even larger one. Thats what causing its current motion to look SW or even S. I suspect in the next few frames it will turn E, then N and finally back to NW. So far the southen track is a jog, but we need to keep our eyes on it. It could be the brake us in S. FL need.

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 03:44 PM

Re: Here we go!

With regards to not enough time to prepare; what the hell are people waitng for. You should know what you're going to do and when you're going to do it. It's a lot of work, but not brain surgery. Err on the side of caution.

OcalaKT

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Oct 19 2005 03:47 PM

Re: slight adjustment north at 11

Quote:

Does this mean that the folks here in the St Pete/Tampa area can breath a sigh of relief?

I wouldn't think yet. You are still in the cone. Until she turns, I don't think anybody should consider themselves out of the woods! Remember Charlie last year. It was thought he was going into Tampa, and then hit south of there.

Myles

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 03:49 PM

Re: slight adjustment north at 11

NO ONE CAN BREATHE A SIGH OF RELIEF! All of Florida is under the gun. Just like Charley(Which this is not!) a hurricane can make an unpredicted turn into a different place then expected. Even a small jog a couple hundred miles from the coast could make a HUGE difference in where this thing comes ashore. Relief comes when you see that it has made landfall somewhere else, unless you are where it made landfall.

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Oct 19 2005 03:50 PM

Re: slight adjustment north at 11

I all so well remember Charley, everyone here ran to Orlando to only experience the storm over there. What are the currents looking like that are suppose to curve the storm?

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 03:53 PM

Re: slight adjustment north at 11

Saw the JB "free" post today. He is saying much bigger windfield than Charley, but obviously not as intense at the center. He also believes that it will move slower across Florida than currently progged, even slower than he thought yesterday, probably with the idea of the negatively tilted trough having it lag behind the "pull". He thinks it will exit near Cape Canaveral Sunday night though, then a growing likelihood of a party in the NE. We'll see.

(Registered User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 03:54 PM

Re: slight adjustment north at 11

I'm wondering the same thing. Maybe it's my imagination, though, but the models appear to have landfall occurring more north than previous, putting the Tampa Bay area more at risk. Even our strike probabilities have increased (and will continue to increase I suppose as Wilma gets closer to Florida)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIASPFAT4+shtml/191439.shtml

Am I seeing this correctly? (Yes, I realize it's too early to tell, but the path doesn't appear to be as far south anymore).

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/145238.shtml?5day?large
and
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL242005mltsth.gif
and
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurrica...;imagetype=move

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 03:55 PM

Re: slight adjustment north at 11

checking out the early runs of the NOGAPS and GFS,,,,,The Nogaps I cant get updated more then 72 hrs out,, but by then its near its 6z run maybe heading slightly more NE towards Sarasota, but hard to tell....GFS is out only 42 as of this,, it actually is much further west then its previous runs making a landfall just south of Cancun....I think this model is alittle slow but is correct in being more w towards Cancun, I think it might go just N though as its alittle too far south, time will tell and hopefully I can see more of the nogaps soon enough.

Wxwatcher2

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 03:55 PM

Re: slight adjustment north at 11

St Pete Bill,

No one can "breathe a sigh of relief" just the opposite, you should be making plans to protect life and property.

Tomorrow we will know more than today but as it looks now, I am not sure that the turn will be as far south as is currently forecast. My gut feeling is the Tampa Bay are is very much still under a very real threat.
Look at the "cone" it basicly covers most of the fla penninsula.

Please prepare.

Londovir

(Weather Guru)

Wed Oct 19 2005 03:56 PM

Re: slight adjustment north at 11

Given the eye looping cyclically (which is doing wonders for my Calculus class, it's a good project, albeit unfortunate, for them to work on), I'm inclined to think the eye is going to slide just south of the next forecast point.

I'm going off the GOES floater's tropical prediction points in saying that, but she does appear that she's going to slip just barely south. Not sure if that's all due to the eye bouncing, or if it's a slight trend, but it could also factor into the idea that the models edged north a little. If the eye slips just south of the prediction point, doesn't that imply that the northward turn is being slightly delayed, which in turn may predict a higher northern crossing point in FL?

(Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 03:56 PM

Re: slight adjustment north at 11

Seems to me they are backing off a bit about Wilma loosing alot of punch before she hits fl.Max Mayfield seemed to hint it could be a cat 4 at landfall.Man.is this thing growing in size or what!!

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:00 PM

Re: Surge

Quote:

How would the currently projected sharp right turn affect surge? Common sense tells this layman that a Cat 5 surge being pushed in one direction would likely dissipate considerably with the kind of turn and weakening the models are showing. Ivan, Katrina, Rita all came ashore in a relatively straight path from the Cat 5 status, with just a slight NE jog to all of them toward the end. However, if the models are right with Wilma, I have a problem seeing that Cat 5 surge lasting through such a sharp turn. Other thoughts?

I would doubt that it is pushing a Katrina-type surge anyway. Large eyewalls and large geographic storms tend to push more water than their windspeeds and pressure would indicate. Charley was a small (almost midget) hurricane. Storm surge was not as bad with Charley as it would have been had it been a typical Cat 4 in structure.
Of course, Charley did not have surge momentum either due to its rapid intensification prior to hitting land.
Coveresly, Ivan landed as a Cat 3 but pushed a borderline Cat 4/5 surge onto Perdido Key straddling the Alabama/Florida line. In addition, Ivan did have the surge momentum of its prior long-lived Category 5 status.

Camille was a strong, small hurricane that did have surge momentum. In addition, it actually hit as a 5. Its surge was in the 20-25 feet range. Contrast that with Katrina, which also had surge momentum, but was geographically very large producing a larger surge than Camille. That larger surge translated into a larger surge momentum which did not , unfortunately, have enough time to dissapate prior to hitting shore. The surge on Katrina will be 30+ ft.

So, you are correct in that a sharp turn would greatly affect the surge momentum. So, the main question will be how strong will it be and how long will it be that strong after it makes the turn. Also, will an ERC cause a larger eye? These are the questions that we must ask.

I would also like to not neglect the fact that the "angle of attack" to the shoreline is very important. If I had to guess, (and this is only a guess) I would say that the surge is in the 18-20' range with this storm (which, of course, is still terrible).

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:01 PM

Re: slight adjustment north at 11

GFS pretty much stalls or drifts Wilma around Cancun for 36hrs from 36hrs out -72hrs....I dont see that happening but agree with it thru its first 36hrs will approach Cancun.

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:01 PM

Re: slight adjustment north at 11

The 12Z GFS shows a significant departure from its previous runs and all other previous guidance, basically plowing Wilma WNW right into the Yucutan peninsula in about 30 hours, and then stalling it over the northern Yucutan for the next 48 hours after that. I haven't seen anything past 78 hours yet.

Genesis

(Weather Guru)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:03 PM

Re: Here we go!

Quote:

Genesis, given what you're saying, is it fair to say the further west she goes now the further north landfall in FL should be?

Not necessarily.

That's the common logic, but its not necessarily correct.

The more important factor is the shape of the trough that will steer Wilma to the North and East. If the amplification REALLY cranks and produces an inverted trough at the outset, you'd get a very much poleward motion. On the other extreme, a "flat" trough would tend to produce a nearly-eastward motion.

Neither is likely - what's more likely is what the GFDL seems to have latched onto, which is a normally-shaped trough that gets amplified and approaches inversion towards the end of the forecast period, "capturing" the system. This leads to a near-due-north track at the impact in Maine.

The problem here is that small changes in the shape of the trough and in the exact time when the amplification comes in make for huge differences with this storm because it is going to be moving so fast and as such this interaction is going to be very, very hard to forecast with accuracy. As a result if you're off by a few hours you could see a 50nm - or more - move in terms of where it goes in along Florida, and a 100nm or more difference in the track up the eastern seaboard! This could make the difference, for instance, between an impact at Maine and one on Long Island.

By this point I'd usually be making some kind of call within ~50nm, with a three to four-day window before expected approach. In this case I am nowhere near confident enough to do that, and the NHC appears to be equally concerned, along with various emergency planners. This is why they're kicking tourists out of the Keys - it COULD go that far south - and those people as far north as Cedar Key need to be paying attention, because it COULD come up that far.

My personal belief, given the WV and expected pattern evolution is that somewhere between Sarasota and Tampa is the most likely path, but I could easily be wrong on this one, and were I in the Keys I'd be getting out now. Were I anywhere from Clearwater south I'd be ready to go, with shutters ready to go up and the truck locked and loaded, so that if it looks to be coming my way I can run on 6 hours notice.

I don't think anyone from Cedar Key to the Keys can relax..... it'll likely be Friday before we have a good handle on exactly what the direectional steering is going to look like, and thus, where its going to hit.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:04 PM

Re: slight adjustment north at 11

That could be big, if it does go into the Yucatan and weakens before being pick up by the trough. Think its gonna happen Scott? On its current path, it could very well happen. That could be a saving grace for the sunshine state. We can hope

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:07 PM

Re: slight adjustment north at 11

Yesterday Denis Phillips the met at Tampa's ABC Action News said that he did not trust the south track at all, he actually kept stressing his point. I suppose I am just trying to calm myself, I rode out Opal in 95 up in Ft Walton Beach and swore I would never stay through anything over a cat 1 again.

damejune2

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:09 PM

Re: Here we go!

Let me ask you this - What makes you so positive about a Sarasota - Tampa landfall? You said you didnt want to guess, but you did anyway and you put me and my family in the middle of it. So now i ask you - back this up! What proof do you have to show a Sarasota - Tampa landfall and why hasn't the NHC picked up on this? Can you explain your theory? I am still thinking it will hit Ft. Myers or southward because at this time, the NHC says thats where it will go as well as the models that i have seen. The only model north of Ft. Myers is the ever unpopular, unreliable LBAR.

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:10 PM

Re: slight adjustment north at 11

Actually steve if it did stall it would go more ENE in time as the westerlys will be much further south into the southern gulf by Sunday or Monday. If it goes towards Cancun and gets into the gulf it will accelerate NE as the Nogaps and most models predict.....the ETA also hints at a stall in the Yucitan,, but I disregard this as of now.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:13 PM

Re: slight adjustment north at 11

That's what I thought. Looking at the 12z run out as far as it goes now, the Yucatan landfall weakens it quite a bit, then looks to run further ENE south of the current NHC track (though its only 84 hours of this writing).

wulrich

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:14 PM

Re: Here we go!

Calm down..good god.

He was just making his call. Just because he made a call doesn't mean you and your family are in the direct path.

Just let him make his own personal opinion, just as you are now. If you believe the NHC, so beit...they aren't the only forecasters around and they certainly dont' have to be followed verbatim.

------------------------------------------

This significant wobble to the south with the eye could certainly change the impact zone in Florida. Just keep an eye on it all..should be an interesting storm.

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:15 PM

Re: Here we go!

Calm down June,,, hes not putting your family at risk. Any prediction after 48hrs from landfall is speculative. He notes a few things that can do it,,as such models tending slightly N but then again, some stall it.. no one knows for sure. If anyone including me make speculations right now, I would just blow it off as no one knows forsure until maybe Friday....

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:19 PM

Re: Here we go!

He has to give all possibilities. The lower catagory they mention, the less people prepare.

Thunder

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:19 PM

Re: Here we go! *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:20 PM

Re: Here we go!

looking at RSO on sat......WOW..... something new in my life time...

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeflt.html

11am discussion

PRONOUNCED TROCHOIDAL OSCILLATIONS ARE BEING SUPERIMPOSED ON A MEAN
MOTION OF 300/6.

damejune2

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:22 PM

Re: Here we go! *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:24 PM

Re: slight adjustment north at 11

The 12Z GFS finally brings whatever is left of Wilma over the Keys and extreme SW Florida by 114 hours. This is just one model run, but it is the first indication in the recent model guidance of Wilma possibly "pulling a Mitch" by moving further west than expected and then stalling out. Since the GFDL is closely related to the GFS, it will probably show something similar in its 12Z run, though that isn't a certainty.

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:24 PM

Re: Here we go!

Ok well CMC came out and it takes it at first to about 85w during the next 24 hrs then takes it N and around CUBA to Keywest then races it NE across S florida near Everglades City- WPB in 6 hrs....Another words....garbage,,this model has been soo inconsistant. GFS out almost 120hrs and its very slow for 2 days near the Cancun area then moving it towards Key West and simular path to CMC. I feel the GFS is correct up to near Cancun, but dont see the stall yet so it will be further up with the Nogaps.....speaking of which I cant get any info on that after 72hrs.....will by 1pm though and also the GFDL,, I want to see if it slows it down near Cancun, if it doesnt then its path will be interesting enough if it stays thru FT Myers or not.

dreamingtree

(Registered User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:27 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Hi everyone! I am new to this site, and I am glad I found this board! I find everyones input extremely informative and very interesting. I am watching Wilma very closely, as we live in Oldsmar, FL , which is between Tampa and St Pete, right above the bay. We have to evacuate our 2 story townhouse if a cat 3 or higher threatens, so we have to be on guard. We are prepared, but will not evacuate until we are told we must. Even though traffic would be terrible if the storm is found to be coming our way, it is pointless to jump the gun at this time. We have been here about 2 years, and are from up north, so I know a lot about tornadoes and used to "chase" them and report any funnel clouds, but am still learning about hurricanes.

This Wilma is very funny in the terms of where its going. It appears to be moving like someone is stearing it through the water like a boat. I do not believe that anyone at this time can predict just where it will hit for sure on Fl's West Coast. Honestly, I think the experts are doing very well at even predicting that it will move north and make such a turn. I respect them a lot. Such science is a mystery to me!

What I do know is that business are now starting to take precautions in case anything does happen. Some are announcing that they will be closed if even a tropical storm warning is issued. I have not yet seen people stocking up on supplies or boards for windows. The lines at Wal-Mart are normal. When the boards start "moving down the street," then peoples moods change considerably and more people start to take the storm seriously.

I think its very interesting to track the storm, although unlike some people, I do not actually want it to hit. I am tracking the storm because I have to because we chose to live in this location, and because I like to learn about hurricanes. I have noticed some people pretend to be scared of the storm (especially people on the east side where it will not be bad), but they seem to be excited about it hitting them so they have a story to tell. I would rather Wilma dissapates and leaves any storm stories untold. That would make a story in itself.

Ed G

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:27 PM

Re: Here we go!

I have to admit, I too always thought your name was June and Dame your self knighted title.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:28 PM

Re: Here we go!

Yeah I was going to mention that to answer Frank P's question but couldn't get this to load once I stupidly hit "show all" on this dog of a PC I have at work.

Wilma's pathological nature is enhancing these oscilliations to a scale that is beyond what is normally observed. We see it as "wobbling" on normal Cat 4 / Cat 5 hurricanes, but it is still the same cycloidal oscillation.

Board monitors: any chance we could start a new topic so I could refresh every so often without waiting umpteen minutes to load all the posts?

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:30 PM

Re: Here we go!

He has "backed it up" in his posts. If you read through them carefully, you can see that there is clear evidence that there are some atmospheric conditions that would allow a further northern track. Even the NHC has shifted their track ...albeit ever so slightly...to the left. The two systems that would have allowed a further southern track by merging is not going to happen. Why? Because they can't catch each other, and that was a main factor in where this storm will end up. I've posted those WV loops earlier on, you can see it clearly.
I don't think that Genesis is "guessing", either. He said, "anywhere between Tampa Bay and Sarasota is possible." Those two cities are IN THE CONE, so it's not out of the realm of possibility that it will happen.
In any case, since your area is in the "margin of error" cone, you need to start completing your plans instead of accusing someone ...who, btw, has been pretty accurate thus far...of "putting your family in danger by guessing". The thing that's putting your family in danger is called HURRICANE WILMA. Also, I will make mention of the fact that several mets, NWS forecast discussions and even the NHC itself is now mentioning how these two players + some others are beginning to pan out in the models.
I would advise you to keep yourself calm because there are plenty of nailbiting days to come. We will know more in a day or so. Right now the best thing you can do is prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Myles

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:32 PM

Re: Here we go!

Quote:

My personal belief, given the WV and expected pattern evolution

He did give some backup here Damien. He expects the pattern to evolve in a certain way so that it goes farther north then expected.

Quote:

I don't think anyone from Cedar Key to the Keys can relax.....

I think that sums in up the best, no one can relax until this thing has passed, no one.

Personally, I think people on this message board need to stop being so uptight about what other people say. There hasen't been a serious post of wishcasting a quite a while. Everyone the past couple storms has done very well on providing information and if giving speculation, letting everyone know that they're speculating. No one can do more then that right now. Clark isn't 100% sure where its going, but I bet he has a good idea. Just like everyone else.

Let the hobbiest mets(and some professionals) make predictions, as long as they have some good reasoning and a post is not. "wilma is going here" then take it with a grain of salt and add it to the information you get from other sources. Everyone has thier own interpretation of what the satalites are showing, let them tell us about it. They might tell us something we hadn't thought of.

weatherwatcher999

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:33 PM

Re: Here we go!

All i can say is "wow".

100 MPH increase in winds in less than a day.

882 MB?!?!?!?!? That's unbelieveable.

This is will be a season that won't be forgotten.

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:34 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Quote:

For the sake of posterity, I wouldn't mind if it holds near whatever it bottomed out at (the pressure was still falling like a rock when the recon plane left, so who knows how low the pressure got) until the next plane gets in there, and then I hope the inner core falls apart, which is bound to happen at some point soon.

I wonder why they don't fly more recon into storms like this...not just for the sake of posterity, but I would think the research data would be invaluable for protecting lives at some point in the future. For instance, if we ever saw rapid intensification right off the coast of some area, we could use this data to better extrapolate the conditions in the eye. This information could be broadcast to those in the path to no longer treat this as though you are going to get hit by a hurricane, but rather to treat it like you will be hit by a tornado. Then, people could put mattresses on top of their heads and so forth to protect themselves. I could easily see such measurements as being valuable.

Probably this biggest gain with this data would be to mariners. Cruise vessels often must make the decision to either punch through a depression/storm. With such rapid intensification, it is possible for even prudent mariners to be caught in a catastrophic hurricane. Let's just hope that we don't find out later that this actually happened to someone.

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:35 PM

Re: Here we go!

We are watching this frame by frame and model by model,...we are not sure cause we dont want to give out the wrong info....Intensity for weakening is we have but movement we dont,,,especially with the GFS latest run... Anyways everyone lets wait till it get north of Cancun and when it does, then we will have an idea....

weatherwatcher999

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:37 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Quote:

I wonder why they don't fly more recon into storms like this...not just for the sake of posterity, but I would think the research data would be invaluable for protecting lives at some point in the future. For instance, if we ever saw rapid intensification right off the coast of some area, we could use this data to better extrapolate the conditions in the eye. This information could be broadcast to those in the path to no longer treat this as though you are going to get hit by a hurricane, but rather to treat it like you will be hit by a tornado. Then, people could put mattresses on top of their heads and so forth to protect themselves. I could easily see such measurements as being valuable.

I agree-we probably have learned more than any other season. The recon help us understand some of his to help the mariners, etc.

But basically, this thing is another katrina, another rita, just a giant F3 tornado.

Big Tk

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:39 PM

Re: slight adjustment north at 11

Scottvsb
what's your take on the motion of Wilma do you see it speeding up or slowing down? At her current motion i suspect it will arrive at the tip of the yucatan by late friday night..

weatherwatcher999

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:40 PM

Re: Here we go!

Does anyone find wilma scarily similar to Gilbert in '88?

I think so!
It's a cat 5, it's just about in the same spot as gilbert, and the very small eye also!

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:42 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Quote:

although unlike some people, I do not actually want it to hit. I am tracking the storm because I have to because we chose to live in this location, and because I like to learn about hurricanes. I have noticed some people pretend to be scared of the storm (especially people on the east side where it will not be bad), but they seem to be excited about it hitting them so they have a story to tell. I would rather Wilma dissapates and leaves any storm stories untold. That would make a story in itself.

Excuse me, ask the people in Brevard county after Charly hit. Brevard is the east coast you know. Obviously it won't be as bad as a east coast landfall would be, however, level 2 hurricanes or even a 1 going over your head is not a pretty sight no matter what side it hits. I happen to live on the east side and mentioned that it scares me. YEP it does! Not only the winds but the tornado's that these things have been known to throw in the path are devastating. Even on the other side of the coast!

Jackie

Tantalus

(Registered User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:46 PM

Re: Here we go!

My first post. I imagine everybody's nerves are a bit ragged right about now. I know ours are. We live in the Keys with no place to go and no money to get there if we did. Many of my customers are baffled; they are afraid, given the uncertainty of Wilma's path and intensity, that they will be moving from the frying pan into the fire. Kudos to the many people on the board who take this all very seriously and refrain from all the ad hominem attacks found elsewhere. As to the mets, what can you say about the remarkable job they do that hasn't been said already? Light a candle for us, gang, we're in for a long weekend.

funky

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:46 PM

Re: Here we go!

wow, did wilma's eye just make a loop? is that what you are talking about? yikes!

Quote:

looking at RSO on sat......WOW..... something new in my life time...

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeflt.html

11am discussion

PRONOUNCED TROCHOIDAL OSCILLATIONS ARE BEING SUPERIMPOSED ON A MEAN
MOTION OF 300/6.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:50 PM

My Take on Wilma

My Take on Wilma ?? I prefer, Betty, Barney, Fred, Dino and Pebbles. Wilma was always a little too uptight for my liking.. Send her back to Bedrock I say..

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:51 PM

Re: Here we go!

I will just watch her till she gets to Cancun... that is in 36hrs....by then we will have the 0z runs of Friday to know where abouts landfall will be. Unless it does stall (which at this time I dont buy into unless other models agree).

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:52 PM

Max Mayfield's Comments from about an Hour ago...

Were the most obvious sign that I've seen that we are looking at a very bad scenario with Wilma...regardless of where she ends up making landfall.
Maybe I have missed it in the past, but I have never seen the director of the NHC actually hold a press conference. Here are some of the comments I picked up on, and those in the "cone" need to heed what he had to say:

1) He doesn't expect this to be a Cat 5 at landfall. He was talking about a Cat 3 or even *possibly* a Cat IV at landfall.
2) There is a "significant risk for loss of life" along the impact area.
3) Storm surge could well be as high as 25', causing catastrophic damage along the western Florida peninsula. Some wave models are predicting 50'+ waves in the Keys.
4) Because of the size of the storm, a large area of Florida will be under the gun, incluing the SE part of Florida.
5) He mentioned that either his daughter OR grandaughter is Homecoming Queen and that dance is set for Saturday night. He told her that there is a "good possibility that dance will not be held." She wasn't happy.

6) That EVERYONE IN THE CONE...INCLUDING TB south needs to be paying very close attention because it is likely that the "model guidance will shift" again...and again he mentioned the "west coast of Florida.
7) When a dimbulb reporter asked him if he was "concerned about what effects Wilma will have on wildlife in the Everglades", he almost looked dumbfounded and asked her to repeat the question, which she did. His answer?
"I am much more concerened about what effect the storm will have on HUMAN lives in the Everglades than I am about the wildlife at this time."

I can't even remember a time when any director of the NHC actually held a press conference to discuss the impacts a storm will have. We usually see them for breif periods of time during interviews with local and national mets. I think he's trying to get the word out: GET OUT if you are told to get out.
I believe we will be hearing from Governer Bush in the coming hours.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:53 PM

Re: Here we go!

If you are in the cone you should be making preparations. Reservations should be made not whereever you plan to go.
If Wilma is a 3 or higher I would leave.

Question: They said Wilma could affect New England down the road. Any thoughts on that?

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:55 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Multiple reasons for not more flights. $$$$'s and distance are some of the main ones. Lose about 30 minutes outbound and 30 minutes on the return because of the hunters being displaced to Atlanta. I know there have been numerous equipment problems too this season.

Whole hunter fleet needs an influx of dollars from Congress; but that won't hapopen anytime soon.

FlaMommy

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:55 PM

Current Evacuation Plans

There currently are no evacuation plans as of yet according to Mr Vickers of the EOC...he said to get prepared and they will announce tommorrow whether or not there will be evacuations in the Tampa Bay area...Mayor Pam Iorio said to get prepared as well and they will have a conference tommorrow to decide, but its looking more towards evacuation of the Tampa Bay area. I suggest every take precaution and get ready...i know i am....good luck all and lets hope she decides to go elsewhere

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:55 PM

Re: Max Mayfield's Comments from about an Hour ago...

I did not get to see the press conference. Do you think they'll show it again?

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:57 PM

Re: Here we go!

I have a question concerning something that has had me confused for quite a while now.
I watched Katrina intensify, I watched Rita intensify, and to all intents and purposes they
hit 175mph then stopped. The same has happened to Wilma, so my question is, why? Can't hurricanes go any faster than this? What's to stop them reaching 200mph+?

I have a theory but that's all it is - the surface friction becomes too high for any further increase in speed.

Any good answers anyone?

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:59 PM

Re: Here we go!

Quote:

I have a question concerning something that has had me confused for quite a while now.
I watched Katrina intensify, I watched Rita intensify, and to all intents and purposes they
hit 175mph then stopped. The same has happened to Wilma, so my question is, why? Can't hurricanes go any faster than this? What's to stop them reaching 200mph+?

In theory, they could; but there is a limit as to the amount of available energy based on the heat. If more heat was available, the storm couldd increase higher.

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:59 PM

Re: Max Mayfield's Comments from about an Hour ago...

I don't know if they will show it again; although cable news is pretty good on recapping main points on any story.
Had I known it was coming, I would have recorded it and typed it verbatim while listening. Oh well.

Rabbit

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 04:59 PM

Re: Here we go!

Mitch in 1998 hit 180, Dog in 1950 hit 185, Camille in 1969 and Allen in 1980 hit 190, Gilbert in 1988 hit 195, and the 1935 Labor Day hurricane likely exceeded 200

However, these are the ONLY examples I can find in the Atlantic, my guess is that it has to do with the ERC, or maybe just a coincidence that all three began to enter unfavorable environments at 175.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:00 PM

Re: Current Evacuation Plans

Just make sure you have reservations somewhere or family to go to if you are in the cone of error. I am glad we left when Rita hit
and she was a Cat 3 and did EXTENSIVE damage here. I believe because we got most of our people out there were not too many
deaths. So, if they order a mandatory evacuation go.

DoubleJ

(Registered User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:02 PM

Re: Here we go!

Quote:

wow, did wilma's eye just make a loop? is that what you are talking about? yikes!

Quote:

looking at RSO on sat......WOW..... something new in my life time...

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeflt.html

11am discussion

PRONOUNCED TROCHOIDAL OSCILLATIONS ARE BEING SUPERIMPOSED ON A MEAN
MOTION OF 300/6.

Howdy,

First off, thanks for the wonderful wealth of information on this forum and website. I have been lurking for quite a while. I would like to save the loop that is displayed on the above link, are there websites which contain archive loops; or where might I be able to obtain a gif/jpeg image? Its quite amazing that this storm has done what appears to be a loop! wow!

thank you.

FlaMommy

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:03 PM

Re: Current Evacuation Plans

well even if we get a voluntary evacuation*which i seriously doubt will happen* we are to evacuate for living in a mobile home....so i understand completely and hope that others feel the same way...my husbands uncle stayed in a travel trailer in gibsonton last year during charley and he said he would never do it again....so im hoping that some people arent so stubborn

D3m3NT3DVoRT3X

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:04 PM

Re: Here we go!

any mods around .. so we can get a new thread started ? =D

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:04 PM

Re: Max Mayfield's Comments from about an Hour ago...

Max Mayfield is my favorite so I would have liked to have recorded the press conference. Maybe they'll show it on one of the
nighttime programs.
I really hope people will take the storm seriously. Both Katrina and Rita were especially destructive, Katrina with water and Rita with
winds.

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:04 PM

Re: slight adjustment north at 11

Right now the amplitude of the trough seems to be about 40-60 degrees as seen on the WV which shows motion of the atmospphere of the Pacific over Mexico ahead of the trough.
Again it becomes a question of timing. IF one uses say 50 degrees from the NHC forecast point where the turn begins you will see something just south of Sarasota county...near where Accuweather projects and north of the current NHC, But if the strorm turns before that point or after will effect the landfall location accordingly as will the trough amplitude as mentioned above by some one else.
The first time I even encountered a notion that the storm may meander around Yucatan was when Bastardi noted it had 10% chance of doing that
That is actually the first non CONUS strike case made here or anywhere in over two days. And now some of you are noting the infamous GFDL doing that too. HMMMM!
Only if Wilma does not get to Cancun on time.

HCW

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:09 PM

Re: slight adjustment north at 11

Is she about to do an EWRC ? The dark browns have been replaced with reds over the last 2 hours

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:12 PM

Re: slight adjustment north at 11

Doug,

You mean GFS not GFDL Correct ?

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:13 PM

Re: slight adjustment north at 11

Here is the 12Z GFS which shows the Yucatan hit, weakening, and sweep off over the Keys and Everglades:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_slp_m_loop.shtml

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:15 PM

Re: slight adjustment north at 11

The 12Z GFDL is not in yet. I was speculating that it may show something similar to the GFS since the two models are closely related, but we have yet to find out. Occasionally, those two models will differ quite a bit.

Speaking of the GFDL, it may have made the greatest computer model hurricane forecast of all time a few days ago, when it forecast a cat 5 hurricane before Wilma even became a depression. Subsequent runs backed off on that, but the original runs weren't as crazy as they seemed, I guess.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:15 PM

Re: slight adjustment north at 11

Yes, I have seen that.. Thanks.. I was more interested in someone commenting that the GFDL has also followed suit on the meandering. I haven't seen that and was interested if that was the case.

Tracey

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:18 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Dreamingtree. On the east coast, we don't pretend to be scared, we are. We respect the storm. Unlike Tampa area during Charley, WE WERE HIT. I live in Volusia County and the eye of Hurricane Charley which hit SW Florida when directly over our city, still as a hurricane. You have no idea of the amount of devastation here, the number of homes lost or damaged beyond repair. Please do not be one of those people who believe the only impact is on the water. It is not! The damage is FAR reaching. You will learn a lot on this posts, if you listen.

SMOKE

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:18 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Quote:

I wonder why they don't fly more recon into storms like this...not just for the sake of posterity, but I would think the research data would be invaluable for protecting lives at some point in the future.

Rasvar is spot on in regard to the 53rd WRS. Resources permitting .... is key especially this season.
NOAA flys several missions also.
With only a fleet of 9 aircraft and operationally flying half while being 'displaced', until NHC or Congress can plus the unit up .... we fly what we can.
We have an agreement with NHC to provide service but based on current capabilities.

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:19 PM

Re: Here we go!

Quote:

wow, did wilma's eye just make a loop? is that what you are talking about? yikes!

Quote:

looking at RSO on sat......WOW..... something new in my life time...

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeflt.html

11am discussion

PRONOUNCED TROCHOIDAL OSCILLATIONS ARE BEING SUPERIMPOSED ON A MEAN
MOTION OF 300/6.

The answer is a resounding yes!
BTW: ...as many on this site have been implying in their own inimitable way, Florida may not be the last area of concern once Wilma leaves the state (assuming she actually landfalls where we are expecting...and proceeds to tranverse in cooperative fashion). Firstly, I've seen at least two complete micro-loops as oscillatory motion since her needle point eye of terror materialized overnight last night, which means, she's enhancing the processing of the sst's... I still think though that she's just barely moving fast enough that it won't be too much a detriment to her intensity because the thermocline in her vicinity is quite deep!

...Fluctuations will inevitably occur and be most likely brought about by perturbational affects of her own doing; convection processes balanced against undetermined ERC's.... - nothing new there... but all of which there is virtually no predictive skill for timing; let alone subsequent affects on her intensity...

...We notice that her structure, while remaining essentially the same, is not associated with the extreme cold cloud tops that were almost off the scale overnight. This morning I took note of what appeared to be a small amount of dry air knifing into her wester circulation area. (Not sure if this has already been covered this morning so apologies for any redundances - actually, we're probably all repeating ourselves to some degree by now...) Anyway, more of this is actually probably having to do with the diurnal cycle, which is negative during the day (although usually more so toward the later afternoon, which is why I suggest some dry air may have been gulped into the circulation - perhaps masked by the cirrus shield...which by the way is fanstastically large!

...Anyway, for intensity enthusiasts, we are at or near a theoretical limitation for heat content, u/a mechanics and surrounding prospective inhibitors. NHC mentions or at least hints this overnight or this morning... . What that means is that it is more likely that fluctuations will be weaker rather than stronger. But, at 175mph and an all-time record breaking low pressure, a bit weaker is still utterly dimented for terror - yikes. This reminds me...it will be interesting to see how she behaves as she moves from an area of lower than normal environmental pressure, toward and area of more normal.. If she maintains her core pressure while she goes, the wind will have to compensate... The trick is, the water is slightly cooler along her predicted track between the Yucatan Penisula and Florida, so she probably will not have the convection to maintain such low pressure.. It will be interesting to see how this aspect evolves.

...There are a lot of dimensions to this.. .For one, the amount of geography altimately affected by Wilma in the U.S. could be staggering... If these left course continue to materialize and ultimately verfiy as she's climbing in latitude, we could have substantial marine impacts from Florida's East Coast all the way to Bar Harbor in Maine. If not impacted by wind, surf "might" be an issue... And, should Wilma slam into Buzzard's Bay in Massachusetts like the 06z GFS and the NOGAPs are indicating, we are likely going to have a 1938-like scenario of funneling storm surge... The other thing about this: The accelerated movement and current path notion of these models is such that brings her along the length of the Gulf Stream after leaving Florida, then turning her N near about 37 latitude by about 73w (appr). This is disconcerting to say the least... Basically, she's moving quickly across Florida as a cat 3 (if they are lucky..), but so quickly that she may not have a lot of time to exhaust momentum over the relatively flat land area of the Florida Peninsula... Then, she's zipping up the East Coastal waters at some 35-45mph along the length of the Gulf Stream... May not be enough to "strengthen" but could just be a maintenance course.. Then, she does have to traverse the N wall of the Gulf stream and colder water that lurks for about 3 degrees of latitude S of Long Island, but at a very fast forward speed (which is climatologically both favored and necessary given the synoptics of 4 days from now) she will likely have limited time to weaken before crossing that inhibition.....

...Could make some history in New England should that verify; which is augmented by the fact that we would have uniquely enhanced meso-scale aspect associated with lift just west of inevitable coastal boundary, over an area that CAN NOT TAKE any more rain. Also, with saturated ground and an unusually late foliage season that I can personally vouch for in the area of Eastern New England, the timbre cost could be large....

...But, in the end, I think it important to take this one step at a time and the Floridians diserve all our attention for now.. Good luck!

I figure I ought to add to this before the qauntlet drops... this is all predicated on the assumption that the mroe threatening guidance is correct! it is note worthy that the 12z guidance has backed off on intensity from the two models in question; and it has already been noted by another member that the ECM was not as threatening to latter interests in the 00z run. Frankly, i find it a little dubious of the 12z GFS to take it into the ne coast of the Yucatan.. we must remember, the models have a bit of a memory too... they'd logged a lot of Yuc interaction and then a smartly out to sea solution for days...then, one sampling and it looked a lot different...It may just be that we are seeing another oscillation in the models based on momentum from previous runs.

MLB Pilot

(Registered User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:20 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Quote:

Multiple reasons for not more flights. $$$$'s and distance are some of the main ones. Lose about 30 minutes outbound and 30 minutes on the return because of the hunters being displaced to Atlanta. I know there have been numerous equipment problems too this season.

Whole hunter fleet needs an influx of dollars from Congress; but that won't hapopen anytime soon.

Don't know if anyone has responded to this post yet, but I will give it a stab.

Read an article last week that discussed a lack of $$$$ which resulted in fewer missions into Katrina than what the NHC would have liked, especially immediately before landfall.

It is a horrible shame to lose lives because of this. I am walking three houses down to my US Rep. to tell him what I think. Might even see if I can help with his hurricane shutters.

BTW, I have a C-182 (Cessna) that we could use to punch into the storm. Any co-pilot volunteers?

We are ready and waiting in Indialantic, FL!

Rick on boat in Mobile

(Weather Drama Guru)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:21 PM

hello everyone

all storms ending in A are a problem...

alpha, beta next...just kidding...

but 3 cat 5's is just tooo wierd to me. and this one has an 882 mb pressure, and trochoidal oscillations....wow.....w
i've been involved in the hurricane work on weekends..volunteer...and the damage from Katrina is not possible...but there it is...I could write for hours on what Katrina did...

I just hope Wilma weakens.

efaulkSWFLA

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:29 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

What do you experts see for impact in the Ft. Myers area? Also, what is a realistic wind speed at land fall?

I'll sit back and read all of your great advice..

Bloodstar

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:33 PM

Recco Obs?

has anyone noticed anything interesting in the recco obs? I know a vortex will be out soon, but I was curious if anyone has noticed anything interesting yet. I also am getting the impression the windfield is expanding outward. Is this the case?

Yes, I'll admit, I'm nervous, I am in palm harbor, (anyone have a good elevation map of florida or Pinellas county?) and I'm probably going to make my decision to evacuate tomorrow night. I've already contacted friends in Gainesville and Atlanta, and even if the storm misses you, it's a very good idea to have your plans set out.

If you choose to ride out the storm, for whatever reason you decide you want to, make sure you have plenty of water, bread and batteries. I have a roommate, and together we have about 10 gallons of water, plus another 3 in the freezer frozen. Enough dried and non heated food to last a week, a portable radio and a non cordless telephone (and batteries). Plenty of other things, this has probably spiraled off topic a bit, but anyone have any other critical ideas for weathering a week without power? (car is full of gas)

-Mark

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:36 PM

Re: hello everyone

the 12Z GFDL track forecast is out and it is indeed similar to the 12Z GFS, only even slower. It also stalls Wilma over the Yucutan and eventually brings it out on a slower and more southern path, centering it just south of the western tip of Cuba at the end of the forecast in 126 hours. Since the GFS and GFDL are two of the major models used in track forecasts, the forecast just got a lot more complicated.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:37 PM

Re: hello everyone

Quote:

the 12Z GFDL track forecast is out and it is indeed similar to the 12Z GFS, only even slower. It also stalls Wilma over the Yucutan and eventually brings it out on a slower and more southern path, centering it just south of the western tip of Cuba at the end of the forecast in 126 hours. Since the GFS and GFDL are two of the major models used in track forecasts, the forecast just got a lot more complicated.

Thuderbird, do you have a link for the 12Z GFDL?

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:40 PM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

I said many times now that if the system does stall down by Cancun , it will go further south towards the keys or just south of there towards what the GFS is showing.,, I want to see future runs of these models first.

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:41 PM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

Just go to wunderground.com its updated on the computer models under wilma.

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:41 PM

Re: hello everyone

Quote:

Quote:

the 12Z GFDL track forecast is out and it is indeed similar to the 12Z GFS, only even slower. It also stalls Wilma over the Yucutan and eventually brings it out on a slower and more southern path, centering it just south of the western tip of Cuba at the end of the forecast in 126 hours. Since the GFS and GFDL are two of the major models used in track forecasts, the forecast just got a lot more complicated.

Thuderbird, do you have a link for the 12Z GFDL?

Here is a link to the points from the latest forecast track:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=WBCCHGQLM&version=1&max=25

(Registered User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:41 PM

Re: Current Evacuation Plans

I just made hotel reservations at a hotel in Tampa (in a non-flood zone). I live in flood zone A in St. Pete and am not willing to take chances this year like I did last year. I rode out Frances and Jeanne and didn't evacuate for Charley and after seeing Katrina's aftermath as well as TBO.com's illustration, I just want peace of mind and to be out of harm's way. Advice for anyone else expecting to make reservations in the Tampa Bay area, a lot of the hotels are booked to capacity so you need to make them very soon. I got one that accepts pets as I have two cats and cannot evacuate to a shelter.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:42 PM

Re: hello everyone

Doesn't she look like she's moving due west?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:42 PM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

Well I still cant get more then 72hrs out on the Nogaps,,it hasnt slowed it at all and the CMC keeps it even faster making landfall Friday night near Everglades City.

(Registered User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:44 PM

Re: Max Mayfield's Comments from about an Hour ago...

Here is a video clip of part of his press conference:

http://www.cnn.com/video/player/player.html?url=/video/us/2005/10/19/sot.nhc.mayfield.wsvn

WeatherNut

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:45 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Lord...the local radio stations are already using Fred Flinstone's voice screeming "WILMA". Get used to it...it'll be all over the place (kinda tacky I think)

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:45 PM

Re: hello everyone

I"m getting the 6z with that link!

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:45 PM

Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane

This could be a case of bad data into the models. Seems odd that they made such swift changes... GDFL is not know for doing that, whereas you can expect that from the GFS.

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:46 PM

Re: Recco Obs?

It'll be interesting to see what the recon finds. I'm not sure what to expect... the pressure almost certainly dropped lower than 882 mb after the plane left, since there was no indication at that point that the deepening was leveling off. It's likely been on the rise this morning based on the somewhat degraded satellite appearance. Not only will be first central pressure reading itself be notable, but also the current trend in pressure that will be observed with the second pressure fix. It will likely be impossible to go back and estimate what the pressure actually bottomed out at, but we can always speculate based on the current pressure trends.

(Registered User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:48 PM

Re: Recco Obs?

Maps for the Tampa Bay area:

http://www2.sptimes.com/pdfs/hurricanemaps/

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:49 PM

Re: hello everyone

Quote:

I"m getting the 6z with that link!

Oops... try this link and scroll down to the Wilma output, or hit the 'Current Version" link on the previous link I mentioned:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=WBCCHGQLM&version=0&max=25

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:54 PM

Re: hello everyone

Actually,,the UKMET also agrees on a slowdown and has done that for 2 days near the tip of the Yucitan,, so what can we think???? It will probably slow down on Friday but where and how long is the question. Again this is all a wait and see. I cant give anyone a prediction. IF it does slow down,, A turn more east like I said above thru the straits or skim nw Cuba would seem logical.

On a side note,,People keep asking me, do you think it will come to Tampa area? My answer is this,,,When Tampa gets a hurricane,,,,Cleveland will WIN a Championship in some major sport...

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:55 PM

Re: Here we go!

Quote:

any mods around .. so we can get a new thread started ? =D

I already asked a half hour ago! No such luck.

* * * * * * *

Wilma's track has consistently been keeping her just to the west of the warmest waters according to the HHCmap...which obviously doesn't seem to matter as she has plenty of heat content.

But if she stays on track, and even if she goes along a track that is a little more westward, once she gets above 19N there is going to be some warmer deep water. If she stalls there, east of the Yucatan, she'll likely just keep cycling at Cat 5 level, steady state like she's doing right now, and even possibly setting another record, depending on when and if an ERC occurs (we've been expecting the small eye to implode practically from the first moment, but here it is going on 13 hours and still clearly visible on wv image; we don't understand it, but she has been steady state).

If she ramps down in intensity, expect her to come back up again once over this area.

* * * * * * *

I think recon is close. Guess they'll be using 700mb this time!

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:55 PM

Re: hello everyone

Checkout the GFDL., what a change!:

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/imagelinkbeta.asp?image=AL242005

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:56 PM

Re: hello everyone

Hold the Phone folks: Something has to be BAD WRONG:

EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST ALONG ATL
SEABOARD...UNFORTUNATELY WHERE IMPACT FROM WEATHER SYSTEMS IS
GREATEST. TRACK OF WILMA HAS PROVEN TO BE A CHALLENGE...WITH 15Z
OFFICIAL FORECAST ALMOST IMMEDIATELY PUT INTO THE DARK SHADOW OF
THE 12Z GFS. MORNING UPDATE FOR WILMA WAS INFLUENCED HEAVILY BY
06Z GFS...WHICH SHOWED ACCELERATION OF HURRICANE UP AND AROUND ERN
PERIPHERY OF VORTEX CLOSING OFF OVER GREAT LAKES. DAY 5 POINT WAS
CONSIDERABLY CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND THAN EARLIER OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN FINAL MANUAL PROGS. BUT ALONG
CAME THE 12Z GFS...WHICH SLOWED WILMAS DEPARTURE FROM THE
SUBTROPICS TREMENDOUSLY. FURTHERMORE...WHOLE ORIENTATION OF UPPER
TROF OVER ERN US LOOKS DIFFERENT ON LATEST GFS...WITH MORE OF A N
TO S AXIS VS W TO E FROM THE 00Z RUN. DECISION TO USE 00Z GFS FOR
THE PRELIM PROGS WAS BASED LARGELY ON ITS GOOD CONTINUITY AND
STRONG RESEMBLANCE TO ITS ENSMEAN...WHICH STILL SOUND ATTRACTIVE
...ESP IN LIGHT OF MORE RECENT MODEL VOLATILITY. SO...COURSE OF
LEAST REGRET WAS TO STICK WITH EARLIER NOTIONS AND HOPE THAT
MODELS SETTLE DOWN ONCE BURGEONING VORTEX MAKES UP ITS MIND AS TO
ITS INTENTIONS.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:58 PM

Re: Here we go!

This answer's for Double plus anyone else that's interested that has IE5.5/IE6.

To save the current .gif animation to disk you need to do the following:
1) make sure you can see the folder 'content.IE5' in your IE cache folder 'Temporary Internet Files'
2) navigate into the 'content.IE5' folder then into one of the four sub-folders and you will find the .gif loop there
3) copy it to another permanent location on your disk somewhere

If you do not have access to your 'content.IE5' folder, which most people don't, then you need to remove the protection on it. The file that maintains the protection is called desktop.ini in the 'Temporary Internet Files' folder. Delete the desktop.ini file and that should now allow you to access the 'content.IE5' folder.

Hope you followed that.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 05:59 PM

Re: hello everyone

Oh please, will someone decode that for me..LOL! Plain english anyone?

(Weather Guru)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:03 PM

Re: hello everyone

The main idea is that the GFDL is generally a well-performing model, and such a marked change in its path (as mentioned numerous times in this thread) could be a sign of a major forecast shift. Regardless of where it ends up, we like knowing where in general it is going -- so confusion like this is a bad thing.

2pm, we should be getting a new recon fix anytime I'd imagine.

komi

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:03 PM

Last !

900 mb, and 165 mph .. i hope will weak a bit more !

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:08 PM

Re: hello everyone

This major forcast shift, would that be north or south?

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:09 PM

Re: Last !

Those are estimated values... the plane should be in there in the next 30-60 minutes to get some observations.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:10 PM

Re: hello everyone

It could also be a problem with data. We shall see what transpires. Will be interesting to read the model discussions when they come available.

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:10 PM

Re: Here we go!

Any "best guesses" what will happen if she misses the front?

Oh, by the way Boston won the World Series least year; don't count Cleveland out.

Thunder

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:17 PM

Re: Here we go!

Has Jim Canotre been deployed yet?

That may be a bit more reliable than the computer models at this time.

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:18 PM

Re: Here we go!

Cleveland is out, Anyways the shift would be south towards Cuba but we will see what the next runs bring.

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:20 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

I certainly understand the constraints that recon works under. I think that the government should put in the resources for unlimited flights into named systems, however. Certainly that would mean that more people would have to be trained as well. I don't think anyone here has anything but respect for the guys that do the recon....especially with the difficult conditions posed by this storm.

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:20 PM

Re: Here we go!

Cantore in Cuba? Hmmmmm

nandav

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:21 PM

Re: Recco Obs?

My #1 Hurricane prep Advice (besides all the other preparations)... Do your Laundry!! (Wouldn't hurt to run the dishwasher just beforehand, too).... (The other dumb thing I DIDN'T do last time.. before Charley hit.. was to buy ice.. since it wasn't coming anywhere NEAR Punta Gorda... At least I bought batteries...)

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:21 PM

Re: Here we go!

Looks like the Swan Islands are going to take a direct hit. Does anyone know if there is any meteorological instrumentation there?

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:22 PM

Re: Here we go!

Looks like Wilma may be on her last or next-to-last bounce...then maybe she'll spin in situ for a while?

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:25 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

dreamingtree

(Registered User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:26 PM

Re: My Take on Wilma

My Take on Wilma ?? I prefer, Betty, Barney, Fred, Dino and Pebbles. Wilma was always a little too uptight for my liking.. Send her back to Bedrock I say..

That is pretty funny! LOL

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:26 PM

Re: Here we go!

000
URNT12 KNHC 191822
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/18:06:20Z
B. 17 deg 24 min N
083 deg 23 min W
C. 700 mb 2149 m
D. 75 kt
E. 29 deg 008 nm
F. 111 deg 128 kt
G. 023 deg 002 nm
H. EXTRAP 894 mb
I. 12 C/ 3058 m
J. 20 C/ 3028 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C4
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0824A WILMA OB 11
MAX FL WIND 128 KT N QUAD 18:05:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

BrooklynMommy

(Registered User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:29 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Hi everyone! I've been watching you for almost a year now and hope that you guys can give me your best guess if Port St Lucie will get hit again and will it be of any strength by the time it hits over here. I still haven't gotten all the repairs on my house from the last one!

(Weather Guru)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:29 PM

Re: Here we go!

75 knots? What the heck?

sara33

(Weather Guru)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:33 PM

Re: My Take on Wilma

Anyone from immediate Tampa Bay area? Now Bay News 9 Met Alan W. says that if the storm turns early it will be S. FL, If it turns later it will be a big difference for our area,which is a given. They anticipate this turn to happen on Friday, So what, that gives this area 24 hours to evacuate???? Is it likely that this may happen? Are you all making the preparations now?
I guess Iam a little nervous now. Any thoughts or comments
Thanks,
Christine
St. Petersburg,FL
Evac B zone

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:33 PM

Re: hello everyone

Quote:

Hold the Phone folks: Something has to be BAD WRONG:

EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST ALONG ATL
SEABOARD...UNFORTUNATELY WHERE IMPACT FROM WEATHER SYSTEMS IS
GREATEST. TRACK OF WILMA HAS PROVEN TO BE A CHALLENGE...WITH 15Z
OFFICIAL FORECAST ALMOST IMMEDIATELY PUT INTO THE DARK SHADOW OF
THE 12Z GFS. MORNING UPDATE FOR WILMA WAS INFLUENCED HEAVILY BY
06Z GFS...WHICH SHOWED ACCELERATION OF HURRICANE UP AND AROUND ERN
PERIPHERY OF VORTEX CLOSING OFF OVER GREAT LAKES. DAY 5 POINT WAS
CONSIDERABLY CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND THAN EARLIER OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN FINAL MANUAL PROGS. BUT ALONG
CAME THE 12Z GFS...WHICH SLOWED WILMAS DEPARTURE FROM THE
SUBTROPICS TREMENDOUSLY. FURTHERMORE...WHOLE ORIENTATION OF UPPER
TROF OVER ERN US LOOKS DIFFERENT ON LATEST GFS...WITH MORE OF A N
TO S AXIS VS W TO E FROM THE 00Z RUN. DECISION TO USE 00Z GFS FOR
THE PRELIM PROGS WAS BASED LARGELY ON ITS GOOD CONTINUITY AND
STRONG RESEMBLANCE TO ITS ENSMEAN...WHICH STILL SOUND ATTRACTIVE
...ESP IN LIGHT OF MORE RECENT MODEL VOLATILITY. SO...COURSE OF
LEAST REGRET WAS TO STICK WITH EARLIER NOTIONS AND HOPE THAT
MODELS SETTLE DOWN ONCE BURGEONING VORTEX MAKES UP ITS MIND AS TO
ITS INTENTIONS.

...Which is all sophisticated code for "...huh, i dunno"

(Weather Guru)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:34 PM

Re: hello everyone

New thread, everybody.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:36 PM

Re: Here we go!

We will have to wait and see. But the 2PM is still calling for a NW turn in the next 24 hours and the NWS seems to be ignoring for the most part the 12Z run of the GFS. So we shall see, hopefully it does move to some other location, but come the next round of models we shall see. Other Global models have yet to jump on this bandwagon at this time.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:36 PM

Re: hello everyone

Two models now show a Yucatan hit, stalling, and drift to the east over Cuba and Florida straits. The satellite imagery shows the center going west of the NHC 11am path. Are there enough steering currents to really push it more north to avoid the Yucatan now? Does she have enough inertia to create her own path and continue on to the Yucatan?

Bloodstar

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:37 PM

Re: Here we go!

I see a slightly different recon value
H. 892 mb

892 pressure

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:37 PM

Re: Here we go!

They did what was listed as eyewall dropsonde in the NE eyewall which showed some unusual data... surface pressure measured by the dropsonde was 898 mb (only slightly lower than the listed central pressure, which would be unusual for the eyewall). The mean boundary layer winds were listed as being out of the N at 81 knots, the 850mb winds were listed as being out of the N at 88 kts, while the 700mb winds were listed as being out of the E at 41 knots. I'm not sure what to make of all that.

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:39 PM

Re: Here we go!

Looks like they corrected the vortex report to reflect a measured pressure of 892 mb, rather than an extrapolated pressure of 894 mb.

Edit: The eye dropsonde that measured 892 mb also reported surface winds of 29 knots. Typically, that would indicate the actual central pressure is 2-3 mb lower, but this isn't a typical storm, so who knows.

No Hurricane Experience

(Registered User)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:42 PM

Re: Question regarding travel to Florida on Monday....

This is going to sound like a totally irrelevant question to all of you living in Florida, and for that I apologize in advance. I live in the State of Washington and my family and I are scheduled to fly in to Orlando at 5pm on this coming Monday night to start our vacation (we love Florida and we're going to the parks for a week in Orlando and then heading out to Port Canavaral for a cruise to the Eastern Caribbean leaving on Saturday the 29th). We have absolutely no hurricane experience and were wondering if we should consider cancelling our plans in the Orlando area if the hurricane looks to go through that area over the weekend (or later)?? Our thoughts and prayers are with everybody in Florida and I know these questions are trivial compared to trying to make plans regarding Wilma where you live. Any thoughts anyone has would be greatly appreciated.

gailwarning

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Oct 19 2005 06:48 PM

Re: Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records

Quote:

BTW, I have a C-182 (Cessna) that we could use to punch into the storm. Any co-pilot volunteers?

Hello, neighbor! I'm down the street in Satellite Beach. Trust me, you do not have enough sick sacks to take me up in a Cessa during any weather condition. LOL!