MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 06:19 PM |
Wilma Continued
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9:30 PM Udpate
The model fluke ealier was apparantly just that, the newest run of the GFDL is back in line with what it had earlier, crossing the Florida Peninsula over the weekend.
Folks along the west coast of Florida may want to begin thinking of preperations for the weekend, and those in the cone and along the coast must continue to watch it very closely and plan accordingly. Please listen and heed local officials and sources for the best information for your immediate area.
Original Update
Wilma is fluctuating in intensity, and is back down some this afternoon. Model projections are starting to get scattered again, led by the GFDL, which suggests a slower moving system and meandering near the Yucatan, never quite making it toward Florida. Most still remain, along with the offiical forecast, headed toward Florida. The 5PM Update from the National Hurricane Center will be interesting.
The complexity level of forecasting the system just went up tenfold because of the new run. We'll have to wait until later to determine. It is still quite possible that Wilma never gets as far north as expected. But as said earlier, until a definitive turn is made to the north no one in the cone should be letting their guard down.
The GFDL model may need to be tossed this run, or it may be the signal of a change. Time will tell.
More to come later.
Make your landfall prediction or forecast in this topic.
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cimss page
| leetdan |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 06:33 PM |
|
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Re: Wilma Continued
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The latest recon:
000
URNT12 KNHC 191822
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/18:06:20Z
B. 17 deg 24 min N
083 deg 23 min W
C. 700 mb 2149 m
D. 75 kt
E. 29 deg 008 nm
F. 111 deg 128 kt
G. 023 deg 002 nm
H. EXTRAP 894 mb
I. 12 C/ 3058 m
J. 20 C/ 3028 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C4
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0824A WILMA OB 11
MAX FL WIND 128 KT N QUAD 18:05:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
894mb pressure, that sounds about right, but 75kt surface winds? What?
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 06:41 PM |
|
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Re: Wilma Continued
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as a note
H. 892 mb
Is what I'm seeing for the pressure
I'm not sure which is right though, but it's the same timestamp...
-Mark
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 06:42 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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They have since corrected that report to an actual measured pressure of 892mb. Not sure why the NHC went with 900mb at 2pm -- a more conservative increase would have been more prudent, IMO. Nevertheless, it's weaker than before but not much weaker, with an eyewall cycle to come shortly. The microwave data strongly hint at it coming...it's only a matter of time.
By the way, those 75kt "surface" winds are visual estimates from the plane crew, nothing more.
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 06:44 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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So, does any of this infer that Wilma will become stationary for a while, which I was asking in the previous thread?
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 06:46 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
The latest recon:
000
URNT12 KNHC 191822
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/18:06:20Z
B. 17 deg 24 min N
083 deg 23 min W
C. 700 mb 2149 m
D. 75 kt
E. 29 deg 008 nm
F. 111 deg 128 kt
G. 023 deg 002 nm
H. EXTRAP 894 mb
I. 12 C/ 3058 m
J. 20 C/ 3028 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C4
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0824A WILMA OB 11
MAX FL WIND 128 KT N QUAD 18:05:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
894mb pressure, that sounds about right, but 75kt surface winds? What?
"The GFDL model may need to be tossed this run", perhaps, but it is interesting to see this whobbling pretty smartly west this afternoon. I will give the admin this much, that much continuity change is usually laughable so I'm about 60% still in favor of the earlier runs.. I just don't like the nearer term movement...hmm
(much of the following copied from recent thread..)
...Fluctuations will inevitably occur and be most likely brought about by perturbational affects of her own doing; convection processes balanced against undetermined ERC's.... - nothing new there... but all of which there is virtually no predictive skill for timing; let alone subsequent affects on her intensity...
...We notice that her structure, while remaining essentially the same, is not associated with the extreme cold cloud tops that were almost off the scale overnight. The above recon is not surprising.
...This morning I took note of what appeared to be a small amount of dry air knifing into her wester circulation area. (Not sure if this has already been covered this morning so apologies for any redundances - actually, we're probably all repeating ourselves to some degree by now...) Anyway, more of this is actually probably having to do with the diurnal cycle, which is negative during the day (although usually more so toward the later afternoon, which is why I suggest some dry air may have been gulped into the circulation - perhaps masked by the cirrus shield...which by the way is fanstastically large!
...Anyway, for intensity enthusiasts, we were at or near a theoretical limitation for heat content, u/a mechanics and surrounding prospective inhibitors, anyway. NHC mentions or at least hints this overnight or this morning... . What that means is that it is more likely that fluctuations will be weaker rather than stronger.
...This reminds me...it will be interesting to see how she behaves as she moves from an area of lower than normal environmental pressure, toward and area of more normal.. If she maintains her core pressure while she goes, the wind will have to compensate... The trick is, the water is slightly cooler along her predicted track between the Yucatan Penisula and Florida, so she probably will not have the convection to maintain such low pressure.. It will be interesting to see how this aspect evolves.
...There are a lot of dimensions to this.. .For one, the amount of geography altimately affected by Wilma in the U.S. could be staggering... If these left course continue to materialize and ultimately verfiy as she's climbing in latitude, we could have substantial marine impacts from Florida's East Coast all the way to Bar Harbor in Maine. If not impacted by wind, surf "might" be an issue... And, should Wilma slam into Buzzard's Bay in Massachusetts like the 06z GFS and the NOGAPS are indicating, we are likely going to have a 1938-like scenario of funneling storm surge... The other thing about this: The accelerated movement and current path notion of these models is such that brings her along the length of the Gulf Stream after leaving Florida, then turning her N near about 37 latitude by about 73w (appr). This is disconcerting to say the least... Basically, she's moving quickly across Florida as a cat 3 (if they are lucky..), but so quickly that she may not have a lot of time to exhaust momentum over the relatively flat land area of the Florida Peninsula... Then, she's zipping up the East Coastal waters at some 35-45mph along the length of the Gulf Stream... May not be enough to "strengthen" but could just be a maintenance course.. Then, she does have to traverse the N wall of the Gulf stream and colder water that lurks for about 3 degrees of latitude S of Long Island, but at a very fast forward speed (which is climatologically both favored and necessary given the synoptics of 4 days from now) she will likely have limited time to weaken before crossing that inhibition.....
...Could make some history in New England should that verify; which is augmented by the fact that we would have uniquely enhanced meso-scale aspect associated with lift just west of inevitable coastal boundary, over an area that CAN NOT TAKE any more rain. Also, with saturated ground and an unusually late foliage season that I can personally vouch for in the area of Eastern New England, the timbre cost could be large....
...But, in the end, I think it important to take this one step at a time and the Floridians diserve all our attention for now.. Good luck!
I figure I ought to add to this before the qauntlet drops... this was all predicated on the assumption that the mroe threatening guidance is correct! it is note worthy that the 12z guidance has backed off on intensity from the two models in question; and it has already been noted by another member that the ECM was not as threatening to latter interests in the 00z run. Frankly, i find it a little dubious of the 12z GFS to take it into the ne coast of the Yucatan.. we must remember, the models have a bit of a memory too... they'd logged a lot of Yuc interaction and then a smartly out to sea solution for days...then, one sampling and it looked a lot different...It may just be that we are seeing another oscillation in the models based on momentum from previous runs.[\i]
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 06:49 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Looks like the BAMM is going with the GFDL!
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_model.html
| Big Kahuna |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 06:49 PM |
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Re: 2pm update?
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Anybody have a NHC 2pm -5 day warning and cone or are they going to wait until 5pm for an update.
Also the 75kts wind was an estimate that was observed my guess on the flights in bound run.
| mempho |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 06:49 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
The microwave data strongly hint at it coming...it's only a matter of time.
.
Clark,
Could you tell some of us who don't know how you are interpreting the microwave imagery to tell when an ERC is coming? Thanks in advance
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 06:53 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Can someone explain to me all the wobbling. I understand a wobble but this thing looks like it's in a tailspin?
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 06:56 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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The latest supplemental vortex message notes 152 kt FL winds in the SW quadrant. It also indicates that the outer wind maximum which has been observed for awhile has intensified and moved closer to the center, which goes along with what Clark mentioned about the imminent ERC.
Reposted from the old thread:
They did what was listed as eyewall dropsonde in the NE eyewall which showed some unusual data... surface pressure measured by the dropsonde was 898 mb (only slightly lower than the listed central pressure, which would be unusual for the eyewall). The mean boundary layer winds were listed as being out of the N at 81 knots, the 850mb winds were listed as being out of the N at 88 kts, while the 700mb winds were listed as being out of the E at 41 knots. I'm not sure what to make of all that.
The eye dropsonde that measured 892mb also measured 29 knot winds at the surface. Typically, that would indicate that the actual central pressure is 2-3 mb lower, but this isn't a typical storm, so who knows.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 06:57 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Gee if it looks like this at 892mb...wonder what the pressure was at 7am.
Satellite signature really starting to change now, but previous to the last couple hours, it appeared to be steady state since late last night.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 06:57 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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On second thought...
"MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
143 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005
...HRCN WILMA...
VRY POOR MDL CONSISTENCY WITH WILDLY VARYING SOLNS SEEN IN THE 12Z
GLOBAL MDL SUITE. THE OVERALL TREND OF A SLOWER MOVING HRCN WILMA
SEEMS REALISTIC GIVEN SHRT TERM TRENDS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE MAIN PROBLEM CONTINUE TO BE THE POINT AT WHICH THE STG HEIGHT
FALLS OVR THE E CTRL U.S. PULL THE STORM POLEWARD. THERE HAS BEEN
A TREND WWD IN THE 12Z UKMET/GFS AND NAM SOLNS...BUT THESE MDLS
DIFFER WITH THEIR TIMING. THE 12Z CMC SOLN IS FARTHER TO THE RIGHT
AND A LITTLE FASTER. PLS SEE LATEST NHC DISC FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON WILMA."
...Still, something doesn't seem right about this 12z variant... I just think it's ultimately going to come down to an as yet determine meridianal depth of the trough centered on 80+W, when that finally occurs.. so I agree with them that much. As far as the GFDL interacting with the landmass of NE Coast of Yucatan - this is the first run that has had this behavior and has virtually no support from previous guidance suites - at least, not that far inland..
| No Hurricane Experience |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 07:01 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued (Nervous Traveler)
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This is going to sound like a totally irrelevant question to all of you living in Florida, and for that I apologize in advance. I live in the State of Washington and my family and I are scheduled to fly in to Orlando at 5pm on this coming Monday night to start our vacation (we love Florida and we're going to the parks for a week in Orlando and then heading out to Port Canavaral for a cruise to the Eastern Caribbean leaving on Saturday the 29th). We have absolutely no hurricane experience and were wondering if we should consider cancelling our plans in the Orlando area if the hurricane looks to go through that area over the weekend (or later)?? Our thoughts and prayers are with everybody in Florida and I know these questions are trivial compared to trying to make plans regarding Wilma where you live. Any thoughts anyone has would be greatly appreciated.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 07:03 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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I t really seems like the models caught some kind of data bochulisim on the 12Z run. Either we had some bad data ingested or something wacky is going on. I will be interested to see the 0Z runs to see what happens. The GFS is going to "infect" a lot of other models, including GFDL. If the same things happen at 0Z, I will start to wonder what is up.
| jeangfl |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 07:05 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued (Nervous Traveler)
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I live in SW FL and my advice to you is DON'T COME. You say you have no hurricane experience - you should try to keep it that way.
| Major Sharpe |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 07:05 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
Looks like the BAMM is going with the GFDL!
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_model.html
This is my first post; I've been keeping up with you gurus over the past year, and have been extraordinarily impressed with the bulk of the discussion.
I'm based in Orlando; two hours ago, I believed (like some others) that this storm would continue to track northward and actually hit somewhere between Punta Gorda and Sarasota. The BAMM and GFDL models have given me pause in this previous line of thought. I know that many here believe that this is, perhaps, an aberration in the models, to be corrected in future models. The GFDL alone would have me agreeing. Subsequently, however, the BAMM came into semi-concurrence. Knowing the reliability of GFDL this season, I am seriously wondering if this might pan out, and thus spare Florida (or, at least, western Florida).
Sharpe
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 07:06 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
Can someone explain to me all the wobbling. I understand a wobble but this thing looks like it's in a tailspin?
Hi, these odd oscillations you are looking at are called trochodial motions...
by the book that means: "the curve generated by a point on the radius of a circle or the radius extended as the circle rolls on a fixed straight line"... in other words, Wilma is traveling along an average path (according to NHC) that is wnw, while performing small-scaled loops as she goes.
As to the cause... interesting enigma; I haven't actually read any papers formally on the 'cause'.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 07:07 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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I am already wondering what is up. Such a large shift in the models from one run to another this close to landfall is weird to say the least. I too am waiting for the next runs to see if we can get a handle on this thing.
grrr
right when i was having more confidence in the track
i just like to KNOW where its going oh well tomorrow IS another day
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 07:08 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued (Nervous Traveler)
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I'd say give it about 36 hours. If this storm comes to Florida then I would cancel. However, with all the wacky models at the moment I would sit tight.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 07:10 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued (Nervous Traveler)
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Nah, we get plenty of these questions.
Monday is currently projected to be after the storm has passed. Based on the current track and windfield, you'll likely be just peachy to come in on Monday.
Now that being said, pay attention to this storm as MCO (Orlando International Airport) will close if the storm threatens it - they will cancel flights and divert inbound traffic if things get hairy.
| Lance Wilson |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 07:11 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued (Nervous Traveler)
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I would not cancel now, wait for a while. If you did not buy the travel insurance, you may lose a lot of money if you cancel. Also, it is not 100% set in stone where this is going..
Lance
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 07:12 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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The BAMM model also runs off of the GFS output, so that isn't necessarily telling us anything new. The 12Z GFS forecast track is actually very similar to the track forecasted by the NAM (formerly known as Eta) regional model. The NAM is typically useless for forecasting hurricane track, so that isn't necessarily a mark in the GFS's favor.
| funky |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 07:13 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/f7_8_0.html
take a look at the ridge building in from texas to south carolina. seems to be blocking out that low that was in l.a. a few days ago and started moving eastward. the southern end of that trough that was supposed to sweep across is no more.
and with the pirouettes that wilma decided to execute today, the models are probably well off from each other due to the inconsistant measurements taken by us. i think someone stated that the latest vortex message said wildly different speeds depending on if you were on the west or east side of the mean boundary layer -- well, that "appears" to be like that probably because the pirouettes were in motion and you would have probably seen (if you were able to measure both sides of the boundary layer in real-time) two wind speeds which were moving in opposite directions at all times going up and down as wilma did her piroueettes.
Quote:
On second thought...
"MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
143 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005
...HRCN WILMA...
VRY POOR MDL CONSISTENCY WITH WILDLY VARYING SOLNS SEEN IN THE 12Z
GLOBAL MDL SUITE. THE OVERALL TREND OF A SLOWER MOVING HRCN WILMA
SEEMS REALISTIC GIVEN SHRT TERM TRENDS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE MAIN PROBLEM CONTINUE TO BE THE POINT AT WHICH THE STG HEIGHT
FALLS OVR THE E CTRL U.S. PULL THE STORM POLEWARD. THERE HAS BEEN
A TREND WWD IN THE 12Z UKMET/GFS AND NAM SOLNS...BUT THESE MDLS
DIFFER WITH THEIR TIMING. THE 12Z CMC SOLN IS FARTHER TO THE RIGHT
AND A LITTLE FASTER. PLS SEE LATEST NHC DISC FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON WILMA."
...Still, something doesn't seem right about this 12z variant... I just think it's ultimately going to come down to an as yet determine meridianal depth of the trough centered on 80+W, when that finally occurs.. so I agree with them that much. As far as the GFDL interacting with the landmass of NE Coast of Yucatan - this is the first run that has had this behavior and has virtually no support from previous guidance suites - at least, not that far inland..
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 07:14 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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To discover the cause, look at man-made trochoidal oscillations. The Rotary engine is a brilliant example. The eccentric shaft roates around a fixed point (with the rotors on an offset lobe) and forces the rotor around it in a dual-oval pattern.
http://auto.howstuffworks.com/rotary-engine8.htm
| Lance Wilson |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 07:14 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Seems like everything based on the GFS has changed, and the other models have not. Sounds like bad data for the GFS, but that is my untrained guess, nothing more.
| funky |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 07:15 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued (Nervous Traveler)
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and note that the cirrus shield along with the outer rain bands will probably be quite large with this storm. i'm in 34202 and we're probably gonna have to wrap up stuff on friday afternoon at the latest.
Quote:
Nah, we get plenty of these questions.
Monday is currently projected to be after the storm has passed. Based on the current track and windfield, you'll likely be just peachy to come in on Monday.
Now that being said, pay attention to this storm as MCO (Orlando International Airport) will close if the storm threatens it - they will cancel flights and divert inbound traffic if things get hairy.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 07:16 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued (Nervous Traveler)
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Quote:
This is going to sound like a totally irrelevant question to all of you living in Florida, and for that I apologize in advance. I live in the State of Washington and my family and I are scheduled to fly in to Orlando at 5pm on this coming Monday night to start our vacation (we love Florida and we're going to the parks for a week in Orlando and then heading out to Port Canavaral for a cruise to the Eastern Caribbean leaving on Saturday the 29th). We have absolutely no hurricane experience and were wondering if we should consider cancelling our plans in the Orlando area if the hurricane looks to go through that area over the weekend (or later)?? Our thoughts and prayers are with everybody in Florida and I know these questions are trivial compared to trying to make plans regarding Wilma where you live. Any thoughts anyone has would be greatly appreciated.
Hello,
Ah - your plans will be dictated by Wilma, no doubt. To what extent, don't cancel any plans just yet; just be aware that there is still a strong likelihood that the area will suffer an impact. You're just going to have to watch the bulletins and keep tuned in; take it day by day.. Believe me, one way or the other you will know if you pay attention.
FYY: There was nicely converging guidnace prior to this morning's output by the models, and this is throwing a thorn in cushy seat of optimism we had been gathering since this time yesterday. Traditionally, when the model do something very off pattern and erratic all at once the output is considered dubious. More times than not the next run will be similar to the more consistent appeal of the priors...
Cannot at this time ascertain whether that 'will' be the case this time.. But, sufficed to say, Orlando area is still no where near out of risk!
| ZooKeeper |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 07:19 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued (Nervous Traveler)
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Come on down! It'll all be over with except for the aftermath and cleanup by then. Most of the parks will only close for the one day unless there is major damage and the weather has been beautiful this month otherwise.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 07:19 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
I t really seems like the models caught some kind of data bochulisim on the 12Z run. Either we had some bad data ingested or something wacky is going on. I will be interested to see the 0Z runs to see what happens. The GFS is going to "infect" a lot of other models, including GFDL. If the same things happen at 0Z, I will start to wonder what is up.
Exactly! ...Need more guidance before establishing trends and lowering guard; but the astute users of this site definitely already know that!
KUTGW.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 07:22 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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000
URNT11 KNHC 191844
97779 18404 40161 84718 30500 30048 10088 /3075
RMK AF300 0824A WILMA OB 15
| funky |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 07:22 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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ahhh rotary engines....the only problem about this is that nobody told wilma that we were supposed to conserve fuel
rotary engines are much more fuel-hungry than our piston-engines.Quote:
To discover the cause, look at man-made trochoidal oscillations. The Rotary engine is a brilliant example. The eccentric shaft roates around a fixed point (with the rotors on an offset lobe) and forces the rotor around it in a dual-oval pattern.
http://auto.howstuffworks.com/rotary-engine8.htm
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 07:26 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Funny, my 1.1 Liter 85 12A rotary engine gets 28mph highway and 21 in town unless I'm dogging it... It also puts out 180 HP naturally aspirated.
Let me guess, rotary engines need to be replaced every 50,000 miles too, eh?
Yeah - send me PMs and I'll teach you all about the modern rotary and what it can do for you.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 07:26 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
To discover the cause, look at man-made trochoidal oscillations. The Rotary engine is a brilliant example. The eccentric shaft roates around a fixed point (with the rotors on an offset lobe) and forces the rotor around it in a dual-oval pattern.
http://auto.howstuffworks.com/rotary-engine8.htm
Perhaps...the mass discontinuity and balast approach may work for hurricanes too - i'm just wondering if a refereed paper lurks out there..
| funky |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 07:30 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
Yeah - send me PMs and I'll teach you all about the modern rotary and what it can do for you.
- anonymous used-car salesman, Peoria, IL, 1992
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 07:30 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Could the shift in the models be a result of data from the P4 getting fed to the computers ?
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 07:33 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued (Nervous Traveler)
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I believe that we'll start to see conditions very favorable for another round of intensification later this evening, and continuing for about 24 hours more after that, as far as considering water temps. I believe shear is going to remain favorable for at least another 24-36 hours. Since an ERC is likely, it will be interesting to see how this plays out. ERCs seem to take about 24 hours to complete and some hours after that to stabilize. Given these assumptions, we may be looking at interesting numbers again late Thursday night / early Friday morning.
Recon is starting the next pass (roughly SE to NW).
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 07:39 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/f7_8_0.html
take a look at the ridge building in from texas to south carolina. seems to be blocking out that low that was in l.a. a few days ago and started moving eastward. the southern end of that trough that was supposed to sweep across is no more.
and with the pirouettes that wilma decided to execute today, the models are probably well off from each other due to the inconsistant measurements taken by us. i think someone stated that the latest vortex message said wildly different speeds depending on if you were on the west or east side of the mean boundary layer -- well, that "appears" to be like that probably because the pirouettes were in motion and you would have probably seen (if you were able to measure both sides of the boundary layer in real-time) two wind speeds which were moving in opposite directions at all times going up and down as wilma did her piroueettes.Quote:
...Interesting imagery there ....um "Funky"
Anyway, notice the drier air the comes into existence as the day progresses, over southern Georgia/N Fl/S AL..etc. There is a nice pinwheel tumbling out of the rockies and this is no doubt temporarily augmenting heights over said locations, which is of course going to intensify the ridge and cause more subsidence to take place...
This may be a transient effect however, where it will diminish as the trailing aspects of the trough begin to incur upon the nw Gulf and then eastward...
Wild hypothesis: perhaps this erratic 12z guidance is related somehow...
| Convergence |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 07:39 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Forget the microwave data- it would appear that the outer eyewall is discernable on vis. now. At least, I think that's what I'm seeing.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 07:40 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Quote:
Could the shift in the models be a result of data from the P4 getting fed to the computers ?
Please elaborate.... in other words, I wasn't aware they ran any special missions other than what took place overnight.
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 07:50 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
I believe that Wilma is going to remain stationary for a time while she goes through the ERC.
I think that during this period she will lose some of her energy and that, by the 11pm,
we'll see her as a cat4 150mph hurricane.
My reasoning : she will be stationary for some time over somewhat cooler SST's with lower convection.
I believe that Wilma will suffer from inertia as she tries to get moving again, exacerbated by the ridging
directly to her west.
These are purely my observations over the last 12 hours. I have not looked at any models.
Since I am new to this and still learning the ropes I would welcome any comments, good or bad.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 07:54 PM |
|
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Anyone hearing about a NHC Press Conf @ 4:45 to discuss the possibility of a stall by Wilma?
| komi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 07:57 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
OK guys, can someone tell me, to go in Okeechobe for fishing or not .. .(just joking)
Interesting thing happen with those computer models ... Dunno what to think, who is more confused now ...
I think all we will get some idea tomorrow morning what is on the way, and on whos way ..
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:01 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Wilma is still moving, and still on track with NHC plots for now anyways. I think the models got fed some bad data, or didn't know how to handle Wilma oscillating all over the place. Eyewall replacement cycle is underway and you can clearly see it on visible sat imagery.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:03 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Quote:
I believe that Wilma is going to remain stationary for a time while she goes through the ERC.
I think that during this period she will lose some of her energy and that, by the 11pm,
we'll see her as a cat4 150mph hurricane.
My reasoning : she will be stationary for some time over somewhat cooler SST's with lower convection.
I believe that Wilma will suffer from inertia as she tries to get moving again, exacerbated by the ridging
directly to her west.
These are purely my observations over the last 12 hours. I have not looked at any models.
Since I am new to this and still learning the ropes I would welcome any comments, good or bad.
Hi,
Actually, the depth of warm water in her area is still deep enough to sufficiently maintain the prior intensity.. It's more likely she's entered an Eyewall Replacement Cycle and this appears to be the primary cause for weakening trend... I wouldn't be surprised either if she's a cat-4 by the 11pm advisory, perhaps even 8... Whether she returns to cat 5 there after will probably be a race between subtle break down in her current awesome u/a structure vs the rate of contraction of her new eyewall - currently developing and plainly discernable on both microw and vis imagery.
As to stationary thinking, she is actually not really stationary. Her last advisory had her moving wnw at 7mph - granted, not in any hurry.
I'm not really sure what you mean by 'suffer from inertia'.
| rmcinorlando |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:06 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
I was just going to ask for opinions on what was going on....the site has gotten a little quiet since the latest computer models came out. Can we get some of the mets to comment on what they think is going on? I am supposed to have someone come to Orlando from Tallahassee for an interview on Saturday and I don't know what to tell her! I was all set to cancel until I saw the GFDL and BAMM model updates.
| iuhoosiers |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:08 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Hey!! do you guys think that Wilma now has A BETTER chance of just stalling out in the yucatan as some of the most recent models are suggesting?? Please feed me some info cause i don't know whether to leave FL and go on a trip i had planned a month ago
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:11 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Quote:
Could the shift in the models be a result of data from the P4 getting fed to the computers ?
You bring up a good point.
Recon data shows 149kt max flt winds in NW quad (corrected).
Vortex 141kt in S quad, concentric eyewalls at 5 & 10 miles, pressure still 892.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:11 PM |
|
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
As it relates to intertia, a storm doesnt really suffer intertia from starts and stops. I agree with the concept of a moving car and stop and go, where you get a whip lash effect, but it never comes to a really comes to an abrupt hault. I have seen eye walls become displaced, but usually motion is only one part of the scenario.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:19 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Quote:
As it relates to intertia, a storm doesnt really suffer intertia from starts and stops. I agree with the concept of a moving car and stop and go, where you get a whip lash effect, but it never comes to a really comes to an abrupt hault. I have seen eye walls become displaced, but usually motion is only one part of the scenario.
...i'm aware of that...
that's why i was wondering what the individual meant...
i like the analogy of hurricanes are like logs in a river...
suppose you place a light weight log on the banks of a moving river and give it a shove out into the current...after some interval of time, the log's direction from the shove begins to yield to the perpedicular motion of the water; the result, if you plot the change on a two dimensional surface it makes a curved motion.
if you take an even heavier log and shove it into the same river (having the same rate of perpendicular fluid flow) the heavier log will have more momentum and thus be carried farther out into the current before it begins to yield to the perpendicular flow. a graphical presentation of its rate of change in direction will be a slower acceleration.
by the coincidence the analogy works in that strong hurricanes have more resistence to direction changes in the steering field because they can 'create their own environment' (not my words). they too have a slower accelaration.
come to think of it...could be a partial reason for the erratic 12z guidance, becuase the initial trigger for pulling Wilma up may no longer be sufficient to doing the deed, and she therefore is getting left behind... if so, fascinating feed-back scenario!
| nicolew |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:20 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Yep - on his hourly updates here in Miami, Bryan Norcross has been mentioning the 4:45 news conference with Max Mayfield at the NHC but hasn't said the purpose. All the stations here in Miami will be cutting in to broadcast it live - and they're also saying that there will be a mandatory evacuation for all Keys residents starting at noon tomorrow. College football games (the Miami game in particular) have been cancelled for Saturday and Max Mayfield made a comment during his press conference just before noon today that his daughter is Homecoming princess this year and he told her her dance on Saturday would likely be cancelled.
How long of a stall and delay in arrival do you think will happen?
Quote:
Anyone hearing about a NHC Press Conf @ 4:45 to discuss the possibility of a stall by Wilma?
| Alta888 |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:22 PM |
Re: Wilma Continued
|
HI MIKEC,
FORGIVE ME FOR BEING A TOTAL IDIOT....BUT, WHAT DO THE INTITIALS STAND FOR, FOR THE COMPUTER MODELS GIVEN ON THE COMPOSITE COMPUTER MODELS TRACK MAP ON SKEETOBITE? I'M HERE IN GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI WITH A BIG DISASTER RELIEF TEAM AND I DON'T REALLY WANT TO NOW GO BACK HOME AND HAVE TO HANDLE A DISASTER THERE. KNOW WHAT I MEAN? I'M FROM THE NATURE COAST, JUST NORTH OF CRYSTAL RIVER. WHATDOYATHINK? DO I REALLY HAVE TO GO HOME? OR WHAT?
THX, ALTA888
| DrewC |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:25 PM |
|
GFS possibility
|
After looking at the GFS (and related GFDL), it appears that they are starting to respond to the non-merging of the lows that were over CA and AK. (The ones that Colleen and Genesis were talking about last night). It was assumed that if they did not merge that the 1st low would turn more polewise and pull Wilma on a more northward track. It appears that the GFS has instead decided that without them merging, and with Wilma getting stronger and not moving north fast enough, that the trough won't get deep enough into the gulf to influence Wilma. This causes her to drift over the Yucatan until the trough pushes further south (across Florida), catching her on the tail-end and pulling her east across Cuba. I don't know that I buy it, but as the models show, anything is still possible at this point.
| rmcinorlando |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:26 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Ok, it just keeps getting stranger.....weird model runs, a news conference from NHC, mandatory evacuations in the Keys (even though according to new model runs, Wilma is supposed to stall),....I don't know about everyone else but I AM GETTING MORE CONFUSED. Usually the closer the storm gets, the more accurate the information. What the heck is going on?
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:26 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
I do not think they will announce a stall. This is the first time we have seen this stall scenario and it wouldnt be prudent to do that. NHC has always been concerned about people not taking the storm seriously and also in being vigalant.
I think he is going to just report in and let people know all across the pennisula that they need to keep their guard up. Watch the storm, prepare for the worst, and hope for the best.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:28 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Vortex Data Message
000
URNT12 KNHC 192017
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/19:56:20Z
B. 17 deg 36 min N
083 deg 36 min W
C. 700 mb 2152 m
D. 65 kt
E. 122 deg 010 nm
F. 285 deg 141 kt
G. 201 deg 002 nm
H. 892 mb
I. 12 C/ 3059 m
J. 19 C/ 3051 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. CO5-10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0824A WILMA OB 18
MAX FL WIND 141 KT S QUAD 19:52:00 Z
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:29 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Met in Tampa now saying that possibly Wilma will take a similar Mitch run, (((((not a given but a possibility)))), not making it to Fl,
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:30 PM |
|
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Anyone know how accurate LBAR has been this year and why it is so different from the other models
Thanks in advance
Christine
St. Petersburg, FL
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:33 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
The LBAR is a very old model and is not considered to be a reliable model by today's standards.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:33 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Vortex max flt winds 141kt in S quad, concentric eyewalls at 5 & 10 miles, pressure still 892, temp diff 7deg.
ERC is beginning.
| Lance Wilson |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:34 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
LIstening to MSNBC, the MET there seems to think the Press Conference may just be to explain the model differences and that this is normal. May not see any major changes at all. Will see in about 10 minutes.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:38 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
check out this lapse rate:
I. 12 C/ 3059 m
J. 19 C/ 3051 m
i don't know how uniform that is around the storm thermodynamics but that's.....that's impressive. 26+' and your temperature plummets 8C!
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:39 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
OK, 18z NAM run is further northj, staying just offshore of NE Yucatan, then nudges eastward.
| Lance Wilson |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:39 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Quote:
check out this lapse rate:
I. 12 C/ 3059 m
J. 19 C/ 3051 m
What's that mean?
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:40 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
My understanding of the "oops" part of the 2pm was that one of the models ingested bad data and it's affecting the models that build off of it (in part or total).
Is Clark around here hiding with extra insight?
| rmcinorlando |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:42 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
I think that everyone is just holding their breath until after the news conference and the 5:00 NHC discussion and new track comes out.
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:43 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Thanks Tip and Lake Toho, that's just what I was looking for, a bit of constructive feedback.
And, yes, Toho hit the nail on the head when I mentioned inertia, didn't realise that Tropical Cyclones weren't affected by it. Great stuff..
| tashina |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:43 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
CNN will be going to the NHC press conference as soon as it starts.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:43 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Can we get the new conference on line??
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:45 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Quote:Quote:
check out this lapse rate:
I. 12 C/ 3059 m
J. 19 C/ 3051 m
What's that mean?
short and skinny...lapse rate: 'rate of change of temperature with height'
(I. 12 C/ 3059 m) - (J. 19 C/ 3051 m) = 7C in 8 meters... Or in none si terms, about 12F in just 26ft!
| Kattbyrde |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:46 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Anyone have a link to listen online to the NHC press conference, since I'm still at work?
| swimaway19 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:48 PM |
|
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
5 pm advisory: 160 mph, 892mb, WNW @ 6 , it looks like it doesn't change the track much from before
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:49 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
That temperature difference is more reflective of the horizontal rather than vertical change in temperature, since one reading is taken in the eye (where it is warmer), while the other is the max temp found in the eyewall. Stronger storms will have larger differences between eye and eyewall temperatures.
| hurricanechantel |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:51 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Hi All--
I'm new to this forum but live near Tampa and have been tracking Wilma extensively the past few days. I've been a weather junkie for years. One of my favorite sites is Weather Underground... what do you all think of the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters??
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:51 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
http://ccri.eonstreams.com/ccri_fl_tampa_wfla_am.asf
bottom line, more uncertainies....
the GFDL, which Max said is his best hurricane model has changed alot since this morning, slowed the motion down... and that has the NHC concerned...
| Lance Wilson |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:52 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Slowed down the approach, that is about it. Trying to figure out the change in models and wanted to announce why.
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:54 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
When is the next run of the GFDL?
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:56 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Quote:
That temperature difference is more reflective of the horizontal rather than vertical change in temperature, since one reading is taken in the eye (where it is warmer), while the other is the max temp found in the eyewall. Stronger storms will have larger differences between eye and eyewall temperatures.
true, good point!
| komi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 08:59 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
what i think, is too dangerous storm to just say, this will miss florida ..
they probably want people prepared, but something is changed .. HNC moved little on south ...
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:00 PM |
|
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
the 7C eyewall temp diff is much lower than this AM when it was 12C or more.
| tashina |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:00 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
I can't say enough good about Max and the NHC. You really get the idea from watching the press conference that he is doing his absolute best to give you as much information as he can ina very understandable way. He is well organized and well informed. There is so much beaurocracy in the world these days; I just thing Max cuts through it all and I really appreciate his (and the whole NHC's) efforts. And thanks to all the mets here as well.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:02 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Wilma has ceased its wobbling and basically come to a dead stop in the last hour, which could be indicative of the organizational changes it seems to be attempting. The satellite presentation has stablized for the time being, after getting worse for awhile. It's still hanging in there as a cat 5 storm for now. Looks like the intensity forecast weakens it in the short term to 135 knots, then brings it back up to 145 knotsby 24-36 hours, before more steady weakening is forecast until landfall. Obviously, the intensity forecast has taken somewhat of a backseat to the track forecast for the time being.
The latest advisory indicates that hurricane force winds are now up to 60 miles from the center. Based on the recon data, that may be a little misleading... that is more due to the outer wind maximum becoming more intense. Between the inner eyewall and the outer wind max, hurricane-force winds may not be present.
| gk |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:02 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Question to anyone. Why has the LBAR Model consistantly shown a landfall farther to the north than any other model? This consistancy has last through the last 4 or 5 runs.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:07 PM |
|
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Isn't the lbar a statistical model? If so, it is doing that because it is only projecting the norm for storms like Wilma, which usualy track into the state. It doesn’t care about the surrounding atmosphere like its dynamic, baroclinic brethren… only history. Sometimes it does surprisingly well, actually.
| Steeler Fan |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:08 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Well, Max just concluded his press conference and basically, they are doing what they can to keep up with the changes this storm has presented them, but as was stressed...NO ONE IN THE CONE SHOULD LET THEIR GUARD DOWN...it is unfortunate that the media keeps pushing for such difinitive answers. Can you imagine the H... that the NHC would catch if they did allude to a total miss of FL at this point and it turned out the other way?!?
| komi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:10 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Quote:
The LBAR is a very old model and is not considered to be a reliable model by today's standards.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:16 PM |
|
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
I read the 5PM, it sounds like they're not sure what's going to happen. I guess a lot is riding on the next model run. Just looking for opinions, what happens if it keeps going further left like they're indicating. Does it just eventually run off into Mexico or does it wait for the next front to pick it up?
| gk |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:16 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Thanks for the info... I'm not an expert but after reviewing the data, reading and listening but I am concerned about a track further to the north as the LBAR indicates. The system to the north does not appear to be dropping south. What do you think? If it does not come as far south as predicted than that will allow landfall further north, would it not?
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:16 PM |
|
|
Confused??? Id say so...
|
this is what im reading from the hillsborough county EOC website....
The Bottom Line is that Wilma is a direct threat to the Tampa Bay Area. There is still a great deal of uncertainty in the Track. If Wilma turns sooner, it will go south of the Tampa Bay Area. However, if it goes further north before it turns it could head directly for Tampa. The Good News is that most computer models are still showing Wilma turning early and coming ashore south of Tampa Bay . The Bad News is that even if it hits south of us, we can expect heavy downpours and tropical storm force winds. All concerned agencies should be finalizing plans and be prepared to respond on short notice, Supervisors should ensure that all essential employees are given time to get their families and property prepared as soon as possible so they will ready to perform their emergency assignments as needed.
Now why in the world would the EOC post that if in fact it wasnt goin to hit. Do they know something we dont??? Every news channel I have seen is saying totally opposite of the other...can someone help me understand why this is being said....thanks
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:20 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
I think they cultivate the offbeat sense of humor at NHC, and I loved Franklin's way of addressing the craziness of the new model runs:
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY.
THE GFDL SHOWING AN EXTREME CHANGE...WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
THERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH SPREAD IN THE 5-DAY POSITIONS OF THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE YUCATAN TO WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
Also of note -- there are two outer eyewalls; not only the eyewall at 10nm, but also one at 45nm.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:21 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Confused??? Id say so...
|
Model disparity:
One model had crack for breakfast. It happened to be a fairly reliable model that never got into trouble before. While it's latching onto some features, the resulting lack of model consensus, where they used to get along so well, is causing the NHC to list their current track as "low confidence".
I expect that the path is probably a bit south of actual and the timing is in the air due to Wlima's decrease in forward speed.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:21 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Quote:
I think they cultivate the offbeat sense of humor at NHC, and I loved Franklin's way of addressing the craziness of the new model runs:
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY.
THE GFDL SHOWING AN EXTREME CHANGE...WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
THERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH SPREAD IN THE 5-DAY POSITIONS OF THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE YUCATAN TO WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
That did make me laugh!
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:21 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
The 18Z NOGAPS (only through 72 hours so far) appears to be still moving this storm as before. Around same position too, maybe hinting at slightly more northerly track but still moving the storm.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:24 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Quote:
The 18Z NOGAPS (only through 72 hours so far) appears to be still moving this storm as before. Around same position too, maybe hinting at slightly more northerly track but still moving the storm.
18z NOGAPs?
- wow , u guys really have your resources..
would you be so kind as to provide that url
| MadDog |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:24 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
What would make the GFDL go so radical? Do we know what the biggest affector of the change was? I am just trying to understand what happened, so I can get a feel for if there will be a corrective run in the a.m. for the GFDL or if we will get more of the same.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:28 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Yeah, I agree that the GFS is officially HOSED this run. I'll buy the NOGAPS solution that keeps the storm moving. It is starting to putter to the NW very slowly, but I expect this to increase during the next 24 hours. I was initially going to post Storm Cancel....for Florida. But I believe this one model is hosing up the Lot, and the NOGAPS, EC, UKMET and CMC all keep it moving. BTW Anyone have a link to the 12Z EC? I'm stuck at work right now.
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:28 PM |
|
|
Re: Confused??? Id say so...
|
The reality here is that there is a great deal of uncertainty in this forecast right now.
The two lows did NOT merge, as I had expected.
What the GFS, and the models which init off it picked up from this, was that the trough would not amplify enough to pick up Wilma and bring her north. That leaves her "twisting in the wind" so to speak, and thus you get the solution that the model has put forward - a storm that hits the Yucatan and then has the steering field collapse, meandering towards the usual direction (east and somewhat north) more due to atmospheric friction than anything else.
Is that right? Don't know. I certainly don't buy it YET, because the rest of the met guidance I'm seeing, that is not storm related, still shows an amplified trough pushing into the northern gulf tomorrow. If it arrives and is amplified as expected, and moves to the east as you'd expect it to, it should pick the storm up and you'd get the solution I put forward last evening - which is north of the official track but still well within the cone.
If, on the other hand, the bottom of that trough "dies" for lack of amplitude, then you don't get the height falls over the northern gulf and the SE states, and Wilma gets "left behind". Then the GFDL solution looks reasonable.
I'm not buying that shift yet. Certainly there's no "vast model support" for something that huge. Its entirely possible that the GFS got bad data - with the radical wobbling that this storm's eye has done, its possible that some bad samples went into the mix, and that you got the "GIGO" (garbage in, garbage out!) scenario.
I want to see at least another 12 hours of WV imagery and some more "actual" (rather than prognosticated) views of the 850mb and 500mb steering levels. If they support the trough not having the amplitude originally forecast, then you should see the models follow along - otherwise, I suspect you'll see the GFS/GFDL and related models shift BACK, and quite possibly northward of the official track.
Right now I still like my previous scenario, but of course that can change - the issue is how far down into the gulf will that trough dive, and will the amplitude of it, along with the height falls forward of it, support the motion of the storm originally prognosticated.
If not, then we have a meandering cyclone over by the Yucatan until the next feature establishes a steering environment - a weakness - into which it will move.
It would be unwise to let your guard down..... this storm seems destined to pull a surprise on someone - certainly it has done so thus far with the rapid strengthening that it underwent last night..
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:29 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Here is the link to FNMOC Site. Click on link: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/logout.do?requestId=1126908274163.1786.1 Then click on Public Charts, and I use the #10 map in this case (Tropical Atlantic). The rest is self explanatory, they also have archived NOGAPS runs..
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:29 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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The 12Z NOGAPS did not drink the koolaid. It is independent of the GFS. I will have to see some consistency in the GFS related models before I start drinking what they ae drinking. If they still are the same after the 0Z runs, I will start to take them seriously. That was just too radical a change for me not to question the data integrity or the way the model handled what it got.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:30 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Couple of things...
1) That isn't a true vertical lapse rate -- it's the temperature differential inside and outside of the eye, a measure of how strong the storm is. Generally, the greater the difference between the two, the more efficient the heating aloft within the eye is and thus the stronger the storm. Rita had a differential of something like 17C at its peak intensity; Wilma didn't quite get there. Maximum efficiency would be for the lower number to plummet while the eye temperature reaches that of the SSTs...generally we don't expect that and only expect about 30% efficiency from most storms.
2) Microwave data for eyewall replacement cycles -- best bet is the 85GHz products, I find...look for "moat" regions outside/away from the center with banding features forming into curved/circular shapes just outside of that. That tends to be a pretty good indicator of an eyewall cycle.
Would not be surprised to see some reintensification after this eyewall cycle is done...some theories are being floated out there about the trochoidal oscillations being a function of the inner eyewall rotating about the outer eyewall. They are with merit, but the exact cause is unclear. I prefer to think of the "storm spinning like a top" analogy -- spin a top and and let it move fast down a path and it'll wobble/spin some. Nevertheless, cool to watch.
| Rdietch |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:32 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
The 18Z NOGAPS (only through 72 hours so far) appears to be still moving this storm as before. Around same position too, maybe hinting at slightly more northerly track but still moving the storm.
Looks the same to me as the 12z maybe a little south but that is what i see.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:33 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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06z and 18z NOGAPS, I believe, are only run out to 72hr. This isn't uncommon, given the amount of computational power it takes to run a model and the need for the resources elsewhere. For instance, the Canadian model is only run out to 72hr at the 12z run as their computational facilities are not as strong as the Navy's or NCEP's.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:34 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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So far the 18Z GFS still appears to be on Koolaid. Its moving the storm west to Cozumel and then turns it back directly east (about ENE) south of cuba. It hints that this will never make it to Florida, rather under it and for the most part under Cuba. Kinda odd, but hey I am game.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:36 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Clark, how about a response to "where you think its going?" The ERC is interesting and all, but I think we would like to know your thoughts on track. Thanks.
| rmcinorlando |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:37 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Hey Clark, what's your take on the crazy computer models?
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:40 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Clark. Do you have any idea what parameters would be needed to be given to a distributed computing model of the atmosphere? Is there some public access resource to get all of the data points required?
If SETI at home is any indication, I believe it's completely feasible that we could actually do a 3 dimensional highly-complex model and have it handed out to millions of eager users...
Even if it's just hundreds-of-thousands of folks willing to knock out a few packets, I believe it's an idea whose time has come...
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:40 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Someone correct me if I am wrong, does the 18Z GFS ingest as much new data or is it a more restricted run? I had this impression that only 0Z and 12Z are full data ingests. I could be way off.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:47 PM |
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Re: Confused??? Id say so...
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So really what everyone is syaing, its a wait and see for the 18z model runs?
| zacker20 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:54 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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I actually think the latest GFDL model runs are not too far-fetched. Granted, 1650 nautical miles difference between forecast points is crazy. But conditions in the atmosphere have changed rather drastically since the last run.
If you look at the nation's water vapor image, you can see that the strong upper-level low that was supposed to bring Wilma to the north has moved a lot faster and stayed further to the north. It has not moved further to the south as the models expected. I think it is safe to say with high confidence that this particular low will not be having an influence on Wilma.
However, there is another trough that is sagging further to the south, but it is much weaker and it's still very uncertain if that trough will be able to pick up Wilma to the north. It is most likely that it will not make it in time. So, a landfall directly into the Yucatan and then stalling out is not far-fetched at all. Due to these changing upper-level conditions, it may be the most likely scenario.
But, if that trough is able to push it to the north, it will not force the track further north, in fact I believe it will go even further south. Because the storm will not be picking up speed like it was forecasted earlier, once it emerges into the gulf of mexico it will immediately be picked up by that trough and pushed directly East, skirting the northern coast of Cuba and then making a direct pass through the Florida Keys. This WILL be a Southwest (becoming more unlikely) or extreme Southern Florida (becoming more likely) if it is picked up by a trough.
So, there it is folks, in a nutshell. There is still a lot of uncertianity and it all depends on timing. If the trough is not able to make it down in the carribean to pick Wilma up before it makes landfall in the Yucatan, then there won't be much of affect on Florida at all. But it looks like Central Florida will not be dealing with much of an impact. Maybe tropical storm force winds at the worst, but that is highly unlikely in my mind.
I'm Zack by the way, studying Meterology at the University of South Florida.
| leetdan |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:56 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
I'm Zack by the way, studying Meterology at the University of South Florida.
Welcome
| Sher |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:56 PM |
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Re: Wilma-Cayman
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It is been a very windy, rainy day here in Grand Cayman. Wind Gusts up to 47MPH earlier. Wilma was at her closest around 5AM this morning. Lots of wobbles...heads west loops back around south/north/west--with very slow average WNW movement. She looks like she is fighting a stronger force and just can't seem to break through.......
Anyone have ideas on GFDL and BAM? They look a bit far fetched!!
S
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 09:57 PM |
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Re: Confused??? Id say so...
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Given the rapid change in forecast tracks, it is probably a safe bet to say anyone from Mexico to Main should watch Wilma closely! Given the triple eyewalls it seems likely we have seen her peak - for now. Weakening to Category 4 is probable during the next 12 hours. However,one the ERC has completed, there should be time for restrengthening before Wilma reaches the coast. I think we will see a Yucatan landfall, and this will probably occur as Wilma recurves, so the eye may not get too far inland before re-emerging offshore. Of course, given the model solutions given by todays runs, this is just a guess
Regardless, with such a strong and dangerous hurricane anyone in its path is gonna need all the help they can get. Regards to you all, and prayers to those in her way!
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 10:01 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Truthfully, I have found the intensity forecast, and the intensity changes of the last 36 hours to be of overwhelming interest, while understanding that of course the need to resolve the track forecast is critical.
Excluding the wrongly-extrapoloated 900mb pressure for the 2pm advis, it appears that Wilma did likely continue to strengthen beyond the time the 884/881 readings were taken, possibly with additional pressure drops (cloud tops continued to get colder right into the morning hours, showing a dramatic increase in convection). Not only that, but she was able to maintain a very low pressure throughout the morning and afternoon hours, and even the extremely low pressure of 892mb right up to the beginning of the ERC (recon started a third pass right now & is close to the center, and I imagine pressure will finally have risen, looking at the wv imagery).
The small eyewall continued to maintain its integrity for a very long time, even though the few of us still awake after midnight assumed wrongly from the beginning that a 2nm-wide eyewall was not possible to maintain and would implode. Wilma continued in roughly a steady state with an overall pulsing of convection for many hours.
This is all extraordinary, and even though almost 24 hours have passed since intensity started ramping up, I am still going through the day in a bubble of amazement.
I want to reiterate again that I believe that the opportunity exists for another intense round of strengthening (the one I originally had proposed), even with a continued westward trend, into tonight and through tomorrow, depending on how quickly the ERC progresses. If the track turns at all east, back towards Cuba or just north of Cuba, or stalls, the strengthening could continue, between ERCs.
Recon update: still finding powerful winds in the NE quad, on this pass a gust to 143kt.
Latest vortex... still maintaining 892mb, eyewall still closed 4nm, even with temp diff down to 3deg.
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 10:05 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
I prefer to think of the "storm spinning like a top" analogy -- spin a top and and let it move fast down a path and it'll wobble/spin some.
Precisely, and I believe that is what I have been observing for the last 8 to 10 hours, a top 'toppling'. I knew I'd seen that kind of erratic behaviour somewhere before. That's the reason I decided to make my 'theoretical' post prior to the 11pm. I postulated that Wilma would continue to topple more and more frequently along her track, giving up energy on each cycle until she de-intensified and slowed sufficiently for her ERC to start afresh. I pre-supposed that the toppling was initiated by a breakdown of the eye with a consequent loss of energy due to the revised temperature differential within the core.
A sort of theory based upon my observations for what it's worth. Comments?
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 10:06 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Zack thanks for the analysis. My question is if it did what you say what do you think the intensity will be? If it goes over N. Cuba won't that tear it up a bit?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 10:15 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Yes, I think you hit the nail right on the head. I would not be surprised at all if the next run of the GFDL shows the same solution.
Our local met, Denis Phillips on ABC News TB, seems to really be buying into this becoming a non-event for central Florida.
I don't know if I'd go that far, but I have to admit that what was there yesterday is not there today, and Wilma may become another Mitch.
Not what we want to hear right now, but it's realistic...to a point. I still have a problem with a "mere" (LOL) 1650 mile difference in the models. We'll just have to wait and see what the next model runs brings us.
Another "wait and see" storm for Florida, which is not doing anything for my stomach's nerves.
| iuhoosiers |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 10:17 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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In the past couple of frames it looks like Wilma might be making more of a turn to the NW than WNW. Any thoughts on this???
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 10:22 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
Couple of things...
1) That isn't a true vertical lapse rate -- it's the temperature differential inside and outside of the eye, a measure of how strong the storm is. Generally, the greater the difference between the two, the more efficient the heating aloft within the eye is and thus the stronger the storm. Rita had a differential of something like 17C at its peak intensity; Wilma didn't quite get there. Maximum efficiency would be for the lower number to plummet while the eye temperature reaches that of the SSTs...generally we don't expect that and only expect about 30% efficiency from most storms.
2) Microwave data for eyewall replacement cycles -- best bet is the 85GHz products, I find...look for "moat" regions outside/away from the center with banding features forming into curved/circular shapes just outside of that. That tends to be a pretty good indicator of an eyewall cycle.
Would not be surprised to see some reintensification after this eyewall cycle is done...some theories are being floated out there about the trochoidal oscillations being a function of the inner eyewall rotating about the outer eyewall. They are with merit, but the exact cause is unclear. I prefer to think of the "storm spinning like a top" analogy -- spin a top and and let it move fast down a path and it'll wobble/spin some. Nevertheless, cool to watch.
...right, aware of that... i had momentarily had a "lapse" of rememerance regarding the decode of the vortex message... but i did already clarify that... thanks!
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 10:23 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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The 18Z GFS is very similar to the 12Z GFS through 120 hours... though stalling Wilma right on the Yucutan coast compared to stalling it further inland. It is about 6 hours faster in bringing the system into the Keys and S. Florida by Sunday evening. While the 18Z models will be what NHC has to go on for the 11pm forecast update, the real crucial model data will be the 00Z model runs, which will have another set of radiosonde data to ingest. There is typically a lot more new data to ingest at 00Z and 12Z than at 06Z and 18Z, for those who are unfamiliar.
| zacker20 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 10:24 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
Zack thanks for the analysis. My question is if it did what you say what do you think the intensity will be? If it goes over N. Cuba won't that tear it up a bit?
Yes, by the time it emerges between the eastern tip of the Yucatan and the western tip of Cuba, it will be considerably weaker. The NHC calls for it being a Cat 4 at the time, I am going to say it will be a strong Category 3. In the next 12-24 hours, the ERC (Eyewall Replacement Cycle) will be complete. The pinhole eye we are seeing now will collapse and grow larger. During that time, Wilma will begin a weakening trend. It is most likely that by the 11 PM Advisory, Wilma will already be downgraded to a Category 4. At that time, IF (and I put a big emphasis on IF) the storm begins to track to the north and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico, it will be encountering shear from the upper-level trough and colder water temperatures. The SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are running about 3-4 degrees cooler than the carribean. So, as it accelerates eastward, it will begin feeling the affects of that shear and weaken rapidly. I'm calling for it to be a strong Category 2/minimal Category 3 intensity if it makes it into the Florida Keys. I just don't see Wilma holding Category 4 intensity for 48-72 hours. The conditions ahead of it are not favorable for that kind development.
However, if it heads directly into the Yucatan, it will be CATASTROPHIC for that area. It won't weaken much if it continues to head in a West Northwest motion.
| crpeavley |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 10:24 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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After reviewing, I would tend to agree.
New 18Z GFS runs coming out and are almost identical to 12Z, with landfall in SW Florida on Monday.
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 10:26 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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I also see that N/W movement mabe it finally starting to make a turn torward the north.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 10:30 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Do you think it head north from the Keys over the penninsula or keeping east going towards the Bahamas and then north?
| zacker20 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 10:31 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
I also see that N/W movement mabe it finally starting to make a turn torward the north.
I'm looking at the lastest superimposed IR loop, and I see the slight jog to the north. However, this could be a wobble. As you know, the eye of this storm has been osicilliating all over the place. Generally, however, the storm is still moving in a WNW direction.
| jusforsean |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 10:32 PM |
Re: Wilma Continued
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I am trying to see the models ( my amature self) and it seems that they dont take the storm very far at all not even entering the gulf in 96 hours out. Could it be because they were being updated? Does anyone know if the new model runs are in agreeance with eachother?? Do they keep it on a south florida track or yucatan? Thanks Keep our fingers crossed for this one I have been blessed this season I bought a manufactured home 6 months ago and so far so good. Can't say the same for some neighbors, but this strorm coming in from the west puts my house in a whole new path. Keeping my fingers crossed for all.
jusforsean
| zacker20 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 10:36 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
Do you think it head north from the Keys over the penninsula or keeping east going towards the Bahamas and then north?
No. Once it gets caught up in that trough it will accelerate eastward towards the bahamas. Once it gets close to the bahamas, it will get caught up in a mid-latitude low that will pull it rapidly northward up the Atlantic coast. The trough that pulls it eastward will stall out over the pennisula and block it from making any northward movement up the pennisula. It will be moving under that trough and once it bypasses it, then it will begin a rapid northward movement.
| StPeteBill |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 10:42 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Being an amature myself and a new member here does this all mean that we can truly feel relaxed here in the St Pete/Tampa area? Is there any possibility of the thing coming due north towards the p'handle?
| zacker20 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 10:43 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
I am trying to see the models ( my amature self) and it seems that they dont take the storm very far at all not even entering the gulf in 96 hours out. Could it be because they were being updated? Does anyone know if the new model runs are in agreeance with eachother?? Do they keep it on a south florida track or yucatan?
No the new model runs have finished updating and that is their track. They have slowed the storm down considerably, due to the fact that the upper-level low that was supposed to dip down into the Gulf and accelerate Wilma North, then northeastward is not going to make it that far south. Due to this change, the models have responded in different ways, with the most reliable model (GFDL) choosing a Yucatan landfall, which is appearing to be the most likely scenario. I see a West Central (Tampa, FL) or Southwest Florida (Naples) landfall becoming more unlikely with this new information, especially West Central Florida.
Bottom line: Keep your eye on it. The forecast is not certain, by any means.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 10:45 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Pretty remarkable that this thing has been pretty much steady-state all day at 892 mb, just "hanging in there" at a pressure that is just barely higher than the previous all-time Atlantic record.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 10:45 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
After reviewing, I would tend to agree.
New 18Z GFS runs coming out and are almost identical to 12Z, with landfall in SW Florida on Monday.
...For your benifit, the 18z run does not incorporate any new rawinsonde data. It is run of the 6 hour grid values from the previous run; in this case 12z.
...That being said, it becomes very intriguing to me that beyond 120 hours that the GFS has come about 3 degree longitude closer to the New England Coast by 132 hours than the 12z run. It is almost suggestive that something is poisoning the initialization because the physics of the model do not change, just the data. In other words, it cannot even agree with the down wind result when using it's own 6 hour interval for initialization....
...That my friends is significant.
| zacker20 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 10:52 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
Being an amature myself and a new member here does this all mean that we can truly feel relaxed here in the St Pete/Tampa area? Is there any possibility of the thing coming due north towards the p'handle?
There's always a possibility, but the chances are HIGHLY unlikely just because of the way the upper-level winds are looking. The key player in pulling Wilma to the north will be an upper-level trough coming in from the north. However, this upper-level trough is not as strong as the upper-level low that was expected to pull Wilma to the north in the first place (this low won't be pulling Wilma anymore because it is moving too fast and staying too far north)
And because Wilma has slowed down, it won't make it to the Gulf of Mexico (if it makes it at all) until 2:00 PM Friday. By that time, the trough is forecasted to be across West Central Florida and will continue to move further south at a pretty good clip. This will block Wilma to the east taking it across the Florida Keys possibly and Northern Cuba. If Wilma will have any impact on Florida, it will be in the extreme southern part of the state.
Residents in the Tampa area should not let their guard down by any means, but just know that a landfall in your area is looking more unlikely with every advisory.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 10:52 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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It is very, very tough to do distributed computing with the current state of computer models. Due to the time continuity of a model, you can't just assign an individual computer one time stamp to do because it depends on other computers doing the prior time stamp(s); this is unlike the SETI@home project, where you can assign a particular region to search at a time to individual computers...spatial dependence is much easier.
Essentially, a computer model is going to be constrained speed-wise by the slowest machine on the cluster. We are in the process of upgrading all of the machines on our cluster to 2.8GHz processors and dedicating 16 CPUs to the effort; this should help speed things up somewhat. For distributed computing to work, you'd need a large amount of fast machines always connected to the Internet with a high speed connection, all able to work in concert with each other -- not as individual cells. That's tough to do even with the best distributed computing solutions. If you want the best model, one you'd need someone to write a model that could handle distributed computing -- currently no such model exists, with the current models being designed to run in parallel computing environments -- and add in all of the layers of complexity that lead to things like the GFS & NOGAPS model (e.g. data assimilation and such). Unfortunately, it's just not feasible computationally and writing such a model would probably take 5 years.
As for the track of the system, I'm still not buying the storm not being captured by the trough. I don't have any large reason to go away from model consensus, though the trends I am seeing suggest the turn may be harder to the right than initially anticipated. This would be good news for the west coast and bad news for the east coast of Florida were it to pan out, but I'm not sold on that yet either. Reintensification is possible over the next day, depending on how long it takes that inner eye to collapse and how long it takes for that outermost eye (the 45mi one) to contract inward to bring about a new cycle.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 10:55 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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That's not quite right. They are doing 18z launches all over the SE US right now in anticipation of this storm, as they do with any threatening system (yes, they even did it with Tammy)...I was witness to one about 5hr ago now, and the 00z sounding is about to go up behind my shoulder now. All of that data was incorporated into the 18z initialization, I'm sure, along with all of the airplane reports (AIRREPs), surface observations, and remote sensing data that they obtain from the satellite-based sensing platforms.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 10:59 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
That's not quite right. They are doing 18z launches all over the SE US right now in anticipation of this storm, as they do with any threatening system (yes, they even did it with Tammy)...I was witness to one about 5hr ago now, and the 00z sounding is about to go up behind my shoulder now. All of that data was incorporated into the 18z initialization, I'm sure, along with all of the airplane reports (AIRREPs), surface observations, and remote sensing data that they obtain from the satellite-based sensing platforms.
Wait a minute... so your saying in quiescent times they rely on the tradition method but do special launches... ? - also, if you're responding, is the data density the same..?
| JG |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:01 PM |
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Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP
|
Link:
http://meteora.ucsd.edu/weather/misc/change_msg.1019
Quote:
NOUS42 KWNO 191513
ADMNFD
SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NCEP/NWS/WASHINGTON DC
1513 UTC WED OCT 19 2005
THE 12Z NAM IS COMPLETE. THE GFS HAS STARTED WITH 30
CANADIAN...12 MEXICAN AND 8 CARIBBEAN STATIONS IN FOR THE
DUMP.
12Z GFS RAOB RECAP...
PASY/70414 - 10145...UNFAVORABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
NKX/72293 - LATE...NOT IN FOR THE NAM/GFS.
THERE WERE NO DROPSONDE OBS IN SUPPORT OF WILMA FOR THE 12Z
NAM/GFS.
CARR/SDM/NCO/NCEP
Could that explain the screwy last runs of the GFDL?????????
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:03 PM |
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Re: Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP
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Quote:
THERE WERE NO DROPSONDE OBS IN SUPPORT OF WILMA FOR THE 12Z
NAM/GFS.
CARR/SDM/NCO/NCEP
Could that explain the screwy last runs of the GFDL?????????
I would say "no". It would explain screwy runs for the GFS, but not the GFDL.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:03 PM |
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Re: Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP
|
Perhaps, but it depends... Do they mean special dropsondes, or do they mean the normal data was missing?
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:04 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
|
As for distributed computing, there is a distributed computing climatology study under way: http://climateprediction.net/ . It runs on both the BOINC system (same as Seti@Home uses) or under it's own system. It takes about 600 hours/model run on an Athlon XP 3000 or Pentium 4 3.0GHz.
As for model runs such as the GFS, the problem is timeliness. You can send out a packet of data for analysis, but can you get it back in a timely manner? It might be a couple days before you get that little piece back. So, distributed computing is fine for long term, distinct-solution systems, but it doesn't really work for something like a 6-hourly model that every layer of data builds on the previous one.
--RC
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:05 PM |
|
Re: Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP
|
Quote:Quote:
THERE WERE NO DROPSONDE OBS IN SUPPORT OF WILMA FOR THE 12Z
NAM/GFS.
CARR/SDM/NCO/NCEP
Could that explain the screwy last runs of the GFDL?????????
I would say "no". It would explain screwy runs for the GFS, but not the GFDL.
Actually Hugh, that may not be "entirely" true and perhaps Clark can verify this since he seems to have the inside scoop on sonding schedules... I fairly certain that the GFDL is initialized off the GFS parameters I'm afraid...
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:06 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Oh, I never said it would be easy. I believe the chunks of data could be broken up responsibly enough that were (highly subjunctive) the right system developed, there are enough people with computers capable enough to make a difference.
Well, guess I'll have to get started on coding the proof of concept now, won't I?
Hey, if you can get it done, we'll be more than happy to set it up and everything!
-Clark
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:10 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
Our local met, Denis Phillips on ABC News TB, seems to really be buying into this becoming a non-event for central Florida.
This is becoming an increasingly more likely scenario. The slower Wilma moves, the lower the chance for a west-central--and even southwest--Florida landfall is. Wilma will be located at a lower latitude than previously thought when the westerlies set up in the GOM, thus pushing the track farther south than previously thought even though it will still recurve. I think it is entirely possible that all of peninsular Florida may miss a direct strike from this storm. However, with this said, please do not let your guard down anywhere in Florida. This is probably the most difficult forecast of the year, and the best we can do is wait and see.
| JG |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:10 PM |
|
Re: Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP
|
Quote:Quote:
THERE WERE NO DROPSONDE OBS IN SUPPORT OF WILMA FOR THE 12Z
NAM/GFS.
CARR/SDM/NCO/NCEP
Could that explain the screwy last runs of the GFDL?????????
I would say "no". It would explain screwy runs for the GFS, but not the GFDL.
GFDL initiates off the GFS, fyi.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:11 PM |
|
Re: Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP
|
Quote:Quote:Quote:
THERE WERE NO DROPSONDE OBS IN SUPPORT OF WILMA FOR THE 12Z
NAM/GFS.
CARR/SDM/NCO/NCEP
Could that explain the screwy last runs of the GFDL?????????
I would say "no". It would explain screwy runs for the GFS, but not the GFDL.
Actually Hugh, that may not be "entirely" true and perhaps Clark can verify this since he seems to have the inside scoop on sonding schedules... I fairly certain that the GFDL is initialized off the GFS parameters I'm afraid...
Ah... my bad, I think you may be right. How about the screwy last run of the BAMM, then? Did it initialize off the GFS?
The thing I am getting at - which may be completely stupid - is that the last GFS I've seen (the one on WU), ISN'T screwy at all! It's an 8am ET run, same as the GFDL, but the BAMM is a 2pm ET run. Maybe the graphic is old.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:14 PM |
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Re: Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP
|
Haven't seen the BAMM - you have an urls.. I don't have that particular model source bookmarked.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:16 PM |
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Re: Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP
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Quote:
Haven't seen the BAMM - you have an urls.. I don't have that particular model source bookmarked.
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_model.html
BAMM is the yellow one that makes landfall on the Yucatan, then does a U-Turn and heads toward eastern Cuba.
| zacker20 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:16 PM |
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Re: Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP
|
Despite all the disparity in the forecast models, I really believe that this hurricane could very well be a non-event for the whole Florida pennisula, or it could bypass the pennisula completely and may affect the Keys/Northern Cuba. This is just becoming more and more likely as I am watching the movement of this storm and the upper level winds set up.
EDIT: It has not taken a northerly component in its motion yet, which is worrisome for the folks in the Yucatan pennisula.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:17 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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They use whatever data they have available while maintaining the data density as feasible. It's not radiosonde launches that kill it, it's the satellite obs -- thousands per model run, largely over the poles, that they can't use. Ten radiosonde obs don't make a large difference; much of the other data are used in normal times as well. This comes from discussions with people at NCEP.
The other suggests that the airplane dropsondes were not input into the model, perhaps because there weren't any around/just prior to 12z or perhaps because of a data ingest issue. Not sure on that one, though.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:20 PM |
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Re: Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP
|
The entire BAM_ series and the GFDL are initialized off of the GFS initial and boundary conditions. There is a version of the GFDL run off of the NOGAPS model. Generally the solutions from each model are going to end up about the same as their parent model, but occasionally they will diverge...notably the BAM_ series and the GFS output, due to the inherent dynamics involved.
| Big Tk |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:22 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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It seems like the last 2 hours of satellite loops show a slight northerly component taking shape. Way too soon to tell, but maybe this is the turn they were expecting.
| JG |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:27 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
They use whatever data they have available while maintaining the data density as feasible. It's not radiosonde launches that kill it, it's the satellite obs -- thousands per model run, largely over the poles, that they can't use. Ten radiosonde obs don't make a large difference; much of the other data are used in normal times as well. This comes from discussions with people at NCEP.
The other suggests that the airplane dropsondes were not input into the model, perhaps because there weren't any around/just prior to 12z or perhaps because of a data ingest issue. Not sure on that one, though.
So should I give less credence to those runs and await the 0000Z or 0600Z to see which are more inclusive of all of the data to get a better picture of the storm track?
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:27 PM |
|
Re: Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP
|
Quote:
Despite all the disparity in the forecast models, I really believe that this hurricane could very well be a non-event for the whole Florida pennisula, or it could bypass the pennisula completely and may affect the Keys/Northern Cuba. This is just becoming more and more likely as I am watching the movement of this storm and the upper level winds set up.
EDIT: It has not taken a northerly component in its motion yet, which is worrisome for the folks in the Yucatan pennisula.
Looking at the last several hours of IR imagery, it HAS taken a northerly component in its motion. It's not NW but it's between WNW and NW it appears, at least temporarily. Averaged out over 6 hours it is still WNW.
Looking at the large scale WV loop, I still really believe the trough is going to miss the hurricane. The trough just does not appear to be digging southward. Now, behind that trough is another one, which looks more likely to grab Wilma. The westerlies just aren't visible on WV in the GOM right now but they may still return. Right now the flow appears to be slowly east-to-west ahead of Wilma, until you get to the area just south of the coast in the panhandle... there the westerlies are more evident.
Or I could be blind
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:27 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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This whole system looks to be doing loop-d-loops heading in a generally NW direction - if you watch the eye, it's just bouncing around some other center that's moving along.
I'm noticing cloud tops starting to cool again now that we are moving toward night again.
Also, given that the 5pm mentioned microwave imagery, here you go:
http://tinyurl.com/boaz2
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:28 PM |
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Re: Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP
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I am so tempted to put a poll up to see if folks think JB will change his mind with his post tonight. However, I think it would be a lopsided result.
It is sure looking more like a move to the north is blocked and will remain so. I know as soon as I start going with that the situation will change. I certainly don't want the storm coming my way. So a cntinuation of this trend would be welcome.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:30 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
This whole system looks to be doing loop-d-loops heading in a generally NW direction - if you watch the eye, it's just bouncing around some other center that's moving along.
I'm noticing cloud tops starting to cool again now that we are moving toward night again.
Also, given that the 5pm mentioned microwave imagery, here you go:
http://tinyurl.com/boaz2
Since you mentioned the NW general direction of the loop-d-loops, I'll throw my nickel in. It appears to my eyes that the loop-d-loops are gradually - VERY SLOWLY - turning more to the NW from W and WNW. In terms of cloud tops - the dreaded black is making a comeback. If that trend continues overnight, we MIGHT wake up to the strongest hurricane on record again.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:31 PM |
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|
Re: Wilma Continued
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Wilma has been wobbling all day long. I want to see two more frames on IR before we can see tat se MIGHT be east of the forecasted point. But this is just one of the forecasted points.
There is so much time and space to go before the models come to some sort of agreement again.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:32 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
They use whatever data they have available while maintaining the data density as feasible. It's not radiosonde launches that kill it, it's the satellite obs -- thousands per model run, largely over the poles, that they can't use. Ten radiosonde obs don't make a large difference; much of the other data are used in normal times as well. This comes from discussions with people at NCEP.
The other suggests that the airplane dropsondes were not input into the model, perhaps because there weren't any around/just prior to 12z or perhaps because of a data ingest issue. Not sure on that one, though.
Well, then that's a bit of a change over the years... so it is then..
Anyway, this doesn't really change the significance one way or the other, regarding a "slight" westward shift beyond 72 hours; it is still plausible that trough will be able to pick her up in mind - so I do agree with what you said in your other post... Which, believe it or not, the sonding data was the lesser issue for me.
As to Zack...your notion certainly is within the envelope of possibilities, however, not any more possible than the models prematurealy or erroneously backing off such as they have.. .Met 101 in forecasting is to be very weary of model runs with such drastic discontinuity; this is particularly true when not only have several runs of the same model trended, but also when different camps have come into agreement. The 18z GFS for example is ever so slightly back N again, and together with different data as Clark has mentioned, and or "doing their best to make the data density feasible", makes the 12z guidance disconcerting for accuracies sake.. Does anyone no the formal status of the 18z initialization at this time...??. In addition, the NOGAPs 12z being shifted right is really only about 5 degrees right of the of 00z out around 144 hours; i.e., too close for comfort and of all the guidance, showing the best continuity...
why...i have no idea... personally i'd never really liked the NOGAPs model for it progressivity bias above 30N latitude... which makes it's more meridianal appeal that much more intriguing...
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:38 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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The 22:45 UTC IR shows a burst of cold cloud tops. It will be interesting to see the next frame.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:42 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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The last 3 hour loop shows a solid NW movement - just as most models have predicted. I expect this storm to pretty much follow the synoptic pattern with movement through the YUC Channel and curving toward the NE for an impact somewhere between the Keys and Tampa. There has been absolutely nothing to change the forecast reasoning today. We will begin to narrow landfall predictions with good certainty tomorrow. Like I said earlier, one odd model run with no other globals following it, no worries - I dont buy the slowing down either - not with a fairly strong trough picking this storm up.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:43 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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What do the experts think? Am I seeing that Wilma will be east of where it is expected to be at 20:00 EDT?
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:44 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
The 22:45 UTC IR shows a burst of cold cloud tops. It will be interesting to see the next frame.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
The 2315z image shows an impressive pattern too, but not the blackness that shows up at 2245z. Well, it's dispersed a bit I guess. At any time I think it will reappear.
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:45 PM |
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|
Re: Wilma Continued
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Is it really a strong trough or not? I thought it missed it? H-ll- im totally confused now. Is the thing moving north or not?
| TomKuhn |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:45 PM |
|
|
My Rant
|
Hello everyone,
I just wanted to get an issue I have off my chest. As a follower of this site for two years, I want to say thank you for all the great, informative information given. I always know that I can turn to this site for real information and analysis of any weather systems that could be a threat to human life. No one is always right, and no one is always wrong, but the sharing of information between one another in a public forum is more powerful and informative than any weatherman's prediction available. Just try posting in the National Electric Code Forum(NEC) for an example of this the type of secretive, non idea sharing, close minded people. That does not happen here, as everone has a voice. Thank you again.
Onto the meat...
The issue that really troubles me is the local new media and their "I know Everything" attitude. As a local in Orlando, this morning I got bombarded by the "know it all weatherman", who tells me (And every other listener) "This is going to be a South Florida Event...we will get rain and some wind...", or other nonsense that leaves people with an undue sense of confidence that this storm will NOT be knocking on their back doors in a weeks time. This in turn causes a lack of preparedness that is needed by everyone. This mornings newcast had Wilma's track plotted out all the way passed the Bahamas and up the east coast (The latest GFDL model would have suprised them). There was an assuring tone in the voice that Central Florida would be spared any destruction. I am not asking for weather people to be completely vague, but let the listener know "...This is the current MODELED projected path...it could change...Watch the cone...We do not know everything..."
Thats it,
Tom
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:46 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
18Z GFDL still slows the system near the Yucutan, but does not stall it like the 12Z run did. It connects Wilma with the trough and has the system into the Keys/SW Florida at around 102 hours and near Rhode Island at 126 hours, moving N at 53 knots at the end of the forecast!
It is more similar to the previous runs before the 12Z run, albeit slower to bring it into Florida.
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:48 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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I go from Dennis Phillips saying he thinks it will be a ft.myers landfall to no Fl landfall at all. I'll tell you what this is really bizarre. Maybe theres just to much media hype.. and early panick predictions..
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:49 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
|
Well the panic many got from the GFDL model going inland across the Yucatan then slwoly east has changed as of the new 0z run. It now takes it back through the Yucatan channel and across southern Florida and up the eastern seaboard.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:49 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Remember that the 5pm update included points moved west to accomodate the GFDL and points further south for the same reason. They were placed where they were to be close enough to still verify well for the next 24 hours until the "bubble" of uncertainty had passed.
Therefore, I'd expect that as Wilma approached the first of these points, she would be where expected at 11am, or North and East of these points (or at least East since she has slowed somewhat).
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:53 PM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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yes and she does seem to be running like that as of now, if the "trend" (if it is one) continues then she will be east and north of the NHC forcast points
also it does seem that wunderground computer models are showing the GFDL run to be back in line now...... verrrry interesting
peace
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:54 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Quote:
Well the panic many got from the GFDL model going inland across the Yucatan then slwoly east has changed as of the new 0z run. It now takes it back through the Yucatan channel and across southern Florida and up the eastern seaboard.
The BAMM has not changed (yet) that I can tell,though.
Well, the 8pm advisory is out - status quo for now until a new recon.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:56 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
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The 'parent' model of the GFDL (the GFS) did not change that much from its last run, so the variation in GFDL output from run to run indicates that small differences could have a huge effect on the eventual track. The overall predictability of this scenario seems marginal at best, so there will likely be some uncertainty to deal with for awhile. Whether or not Wilma actually makes landfall in the Yucutan or not would make a huge difference on the eventual intensity as well, so the intensity forecast is even more uncertain, since it hinges on an uncertain forecast track, not to mention ERCs.
| Ned |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:56 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:small sines,stays south,Keys
The last 3 hour loop shows a solid NW movement - just as most models have predicted. I expect this storm to pretty much follow the synoptic pattern with movement through the YUC Channel and curving toward the NE for an impact somewhere between the Keys and Tampa. There has been absolutely nothing to change the forecast reasoning today. We will begin to narrow landfall predictions with good certainty tomorrow. Like I said earlier, one odd model run with no other globals following it, no worries - I dont buy the slowing down either - not with a fairly strong trough picking this storm up.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:59 PM |
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|
Re: Wilma Continued
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The GFDL is back into realism again:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:01 AM |
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|
Re: Wilma Continued
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when was that updated?
| JG |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:03 AM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:Quote:
Well the panic many got from the GFDL model going inland across the Yucatan then slwoly east has changed as of the new 0z run. It now takes it back through the Yucatan channel and across southern Florida and up the eastern seaboard.
The BAMM has not changed (yet) that I can tell,though.
Well, the 8pm advisory is out - status quo for now until a new recon.
Honestly speaking, after reading the pros opinions here and elsewhere, I think I'm not going to get excited about the final turn until I see the runs after the data from tommorrow's recon runs by the high altitude and regular missions.
Just me and my opinion. I'm prepping and everyone in Western Florida should also.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:03 AM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
Is it really a strong trough or not? I thought it missed it? H-ll- im totally confused now. Is the thing moving north or not?
The trough is still over the great plains moving east. This trough and ULL will break down the ridge over the western GOM allowing Wilma to move more NW and eventually north over the next 48 hours. Wilma has moved to the NW over the last 5 hours or so & appears to be following most model projections aiming for a passage near the NE tip of the YUC Pen. No real change in the synoptic features - of course timing is everything but I don't see anything to change the projected landfall somewhere from Tampa to the Keys on late SAT or Sun.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...amp;duration=10
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:05 AM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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it ran at 2330 z
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:08 AM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
The GFDL is back into realism again:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif
Yes but the last run before the outlier had it going to Sanibel/Charlotte Harbor. Now it's over Flamingo. Big difference for those of us in SWFL.
| JG |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:11 AM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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I wonder about that LBAR run. Very bizzare how far north it is tracking.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:13 AM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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That's really difficult to determine since the eye has been, and still is performing, some rather interesting mini-loops along a generally WNW path. Also, the 5PM Discussion stated that the forecast confidence is considerably less than prior discussions. A lot depends on the strength of the mid-lat low/trough and its speed. Whether that will actually pick up Wilma is now a subject for debate. Right now it's a crap shoot.
| Sheeper |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:13 AM |
|
Re: My Rant
|
gotta love know-it-alls. Almost makes up for us know-nuttin's. The way is working i know less wiith every hour.
Update on the Treasure Coast is we're planning for a not insignificant impact. We're opening 8 shelters in 2 counties for 0800 saturday morning. We're planning for and expecting a mostly wind event of 80mph-100mph or so. The question is how much interaction with the Yucatan will impact the wind field, intensity, etc.
we'll see how the 2300 update looks and what tomorow brings. We did take a vote at the ARC chapter today and decided to cancel the hurricane.....
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:17 AM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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My thought earlier was that the trough wasent going to dig that much south.But know that the GFDL is up the land fall really seems to be florida.Somewhere form tampa to key west. I in my opinion see a land fall by where charley made landfall by punta gorda.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:19 AM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
The GFDL is back into realism again:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif
This run is actually more dangerous for New England than even the 06z GFS was... Wilma is not traversing that much of the land mass of Florida before gradually curving more N with latitude, and accelerating something fierce.. This solution suggests that she will be a formidable player even up in the NE U.S. Coast line.
The synoptic reasoning never really changed, which in earlier post I was attempting to elucidate much of that, and how that fact made the 12z GFDL run dubious. Doesn't mean it won't happen like the 12z run has it...just that it's extreme discontinuity didn't sit well, a) and b), actually was somewhat of an incongruity with governing players..
I've heard those stating that the lead impulse currently tumbling out of the Rockies would not be sufficient in initiating a NW/N pull to get the ball rolling... That may be the case, but this could still transpire along the previous track philosophy without that... Reason being, the NAO is currently in a negative phase and the trough amplification in the Ohio Valley invariably will end up deeper with teleconnections like this in play.. In English, statistically correlated behavior for a height wall over Davis Straight and Greenland is usually counter-balanced down near 40N by 80W, by and equal anomaly in the negative direction... In addition, confluence is migrating/evolving in the middle troposphere by 3 days from now, the axis of which is oriented wnw-ese from N of Maine. This makes it hard to imagine the lead impulse escaping too quickly, and in fact, there does seem plausibility that this lead impulse will be phased with the more import impulse coming down the pike in about 84 hours. This where the plot really thickens and also makes the GFDL 06z and 18z more believable... The trouble is, I just want to be certain that the data integrity in these runs were clean - Clark seemed to suggest that it was earlier (confirm?).
In addition, ridges out in the Atlantic are often not correctly anticipated in the models because that is a data sparse region... This ridge could effectively behave like a wall in preventing a weakening Wilma to carve through.. If that were not enough... Alot of this is actually going to come down to the degree of the amplification of the ridge over the Rocky Cordillera.. It's axis is actually ideal for what presages Nor'easters ....very interesting... a) but also b), if it is more responsive to the large negative anom in the Gulf of Alaska, the down wind result would be a deeper meridianal expression of the main Ohio Valley trough amplification. Anyway, the ridge in the Atlantic and the ridge amplification in the Intermountain West are two important players in the large scope, the degree of which will have an influence here in the ultimate track of Wilma.
As for Floridians... I still suggest all system are go for bringing preparations to completion. We aren't in hurry up mode just yet, but a concerted effort nonetheless...
| JG |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:20 AM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
My thought earlier was that the trough wasent going to dig that much south.But know that the GFDL is up the land fall really seems to be florida.Somewhere form tampa to key west. I in my opinion see a land fall by where charley made landfall by punta gorda.
All day long, I hear ALOT of folks talking about a landfall NEAR Punta Gorda. I'm still exhausted from my drive down to Marco Island and back up here and you can smell the panic in the air and see the gas stations out of gas.
I think that the models will draw a better consensus by 1800Z tommorrow and then and only then can us Floridians take action (stay or go) based on the revised cone.
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:29 AM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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On the last few frames of the infrared, Wilma is very obviously east of the forecast points... How long does a motion like this have to continue before it can no longer be dismissed as just a wobble?
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:30 AM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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I agree. Nothing is certain right now. Tomorrow late or even into Friday before something definite (maybe not even by then) is kinda known. Everyone on the Florida Gulf Coast should be watching this closely and be prepared to act on short notice.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:31 AM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:Quote:
The GFDL is back into realism again:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif
Yes but the last run before the outlier had it going to Sanibel/Charlotte Harbor. Now it's over Flamingo. Big difference for those of us in SWFL.
...True, but Wima will be unusually large and potent at unusual distances from her core by the time she gets to the latitude of say Miami... At that point, she may very well have doubled the surface area affected by both her tropical storm force wind field, as well as her hurricane force windfield.. And, at 130mph she will likely be able to a considerable amount of damage in a very wide swath.
| JG |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:32 AM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
On the last few frames of the infrared, Wilma is very obviously east of the forecast points... How long does a motion like this have to continue before it can no longer be dismissed as just a wobble?
Does anyone have a current graphic showing the forecast points and the actual track? I would love to see the current track vs. forecast to this point.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:32 AM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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i would say 6 hours worth but thats just me, i see what u see and i think it isnt just a wobble right now, we shall know soon.
the gfdl back in line makes me think it was a fluke thing. the 2 bams should follow suit in their next runs
peace
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:33 AM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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So overall were the models contaminated or just stumped by the stall? Does the NHC take all the models into consideration or only a select few? Are all the models computer generated? ok Ive asked enough questions.
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:35 AM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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I was wondering if anyone had a spaghetti model of all the new (post 5:00) updated model consensus?
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:35 AM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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go to wunderground and wilma and then forecast verification try that
| zacker20 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:36 AM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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After looking at the 8 PM Advisory, nothing at all has changed. Wilma continues in a West-Northwest direction and the advisory even mentions that if Wilma were to cross the Yucatan, it could bring massive surge. What is surprising about this advisory however is that the storm is maintaining Category 5 intenstity and a pressure of 892mb. Wilma is clearly going through an ERC based on the latest IR loop and microwave imagery, however, a wind field expansion or weakening has not taken place. This is an odd feature, but that just follows suit. This whole system has been odd.
Concerning the track, I read a few posts saying that nothing has happened to change the forecast reasoning today. There have been a lot of reasons. One main reason is that strong upper level low that was supposed to drive Wilma northward is moving way too fast and far too north. It's not going to have an influence on Wilma. The only factor that can drive Wilma north and then rapidly east, is a deep upper-layer trough that will be digging down into the Gulf of Mexico. However, there is some uncertainity of when the timing of that trough will occur. It is becoming more likely that the trough will not make it in time to pull Wilma to the north, which will mean this will be a no-event for Florida and have a catastrophic impact on the Yucatan pennisula. However, if it does dig down far enough the storm will be swept rapidly east, which makes an extreme southern Florida landfall likely.
Things are still looking better for West Central Florida and Southwest Florida. But, it all depends on the timing. If the storm picks up speed, it will be picked up by that trough a little latter and that could push it farther north on the Florida pennisula. But, once again that is a highly unlikely scenario. If it continues at this slow pace, and possibly slow down even further (as it is forecasted to do), the trough may miss the system completely, or sweep the system directly east (sharp right hand turn) once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:37 AM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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When will the models update next?
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:37 AM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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as far as i know, the NHC uses the gfdl (its model) and the fsu superensemble which is a ensemble of all the models at least the globals.
diff models update at diff times and have to be found at diff places
some not in spag models
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:39 AM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Joe B just made an appearance on Bill O' Riley's show and is still talking about a landfall between Tampa Bay and Key West. They made reference to the citrus industry and the close proximity to harvest time. My trees are loaded with nice large navel oranges and honey tangelos. I sure wish Wilma would get a taste for fish.
| Big Tk |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:40 AM |
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Re: Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP
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Clark in your opinion do you think this new GFDL run is old or has it factored in the new Northwest motion? I believe that we will not no till tomorrow when the new runs factor in the steering currents in GMEX and the High pressure system in the atlantic.... .
| swimaway19 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:41 AM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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I think this 8pm advisory was more of a position estimate than a intensity and track update
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:41 AM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:Yeah thats pretty much what alot of the mets in Tampa are saying now. Hmm thats really good news if it plays out.. Are you a met or a met hobbyist or both?
After looking at the 8 PM Advisory, nothing at all has changed. Wilma continues in a West-Northwest direction and the advisory even mentions that if Wilma were to cross the Yucatan, it could bring massive surge. What is surprising about this advisory however is that the storm is maintaining Category 5 intenstity and a pressure of 892mb. Wilma is clearly going through an ERC based on the latest IR loop and microwave imagery, however, a wind field expansion or weakening has not taken place. This is an odd feature, but that just follows suit. This whole system has been odd.
Concerning the track, I read a few posts saying that nothing has happened to change the forecast reasoning today. There have been a lot of reasons. One main reason is that strong upper level low that was supposed to drive Wilma northward is moving way too fast and far too north. It's not going to have an influence on Wilma. The only factor that can drive Wilma north and then rapidly east, is a deep upper-layer trough that will be digging down into the Gulf of Mexico. However, there is some uncertainity of when the timing of that trough will occur. It is becoming more likely that the trough will not make it in time to pull Wilma to the north, which will mean this will be a no-event for Florida and have a catastrophic impact on the Yucatan pennisula. However, if it does dig down far enough the storm will be swept rapidly east, which makes an extreme southern Florida landfall likely.
Things are still looking better for West Central Florida and Southwest Florida. But, it all depends on the timing. If the storm picks up speed, it will be picked up by that trough a little latter and that could push it farther north on the Florida pennisula. But, once again that is a highly unlikely scenario. If it continues at this slow pace, and possibly slow down even further (as it is forecasted to do), the trough may miss the system completely, or sweep the system directly east (sharp right hand turn) once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:42 AM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
After looking at the 8 PM Advisory, nothing at all has changed. Wilma continues in a West-Northwest direction and the advisory even mentions that if Wilma were to cross the Yucatan, it could bring massive surge. What is surprising about this advisory however is that the storm is maintaining Category 5 intenstity and a pressure of 892mb. Wilma is clearly going through an ERC based on the latest IR loop and microwave imagery, however, a wind field expansion or weakening has not taken place. This is an odd feature, but that just follows suit. This whole system has been odd.
Concerning the track, I read a few posts saying that nothing has happened to change the forecast reasoning today. There have been a lot of reasons. One main reason is that strong upper level low that was supposed to drive Wilma northward is moving way too fast and far too north. It's not going to have an influence on Wilma. The only factor that can drive Wilma north and then rapidly east, is a deep upper-layer trough that will be digging down into the Gulf of Mexico. However, there is some uncertainity of when the timing of that trough will occur. It is becoming more likely that the trough will not make it in time to pull Wilma to the north, which will mean this will be a no-event for Florida and have a catastrophic impact on the Yucatan pennisula. However, if it does dig down far enough the storm will be swept rapidly east, which makes an extreme southern Florida landfall likely.
Things are still looking better for West Central Florida and Southwest Florida. But, it all depends on the timing. If the storm picks up speed, it will be picked up by that trough a little latter and that could push it farther north on the Florida pennisula. But, once again that is a highly unlikely scenario. If it continues at this slow pace, and possibly slow down even further (as it is forecasted to do), the trough may miss the system completely, or sweep the system directly east (sharp right hand turn) once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.
Hi Zack.. Yeah, I agree with all of this but would just like to add that the u/a low that you have in mentioned, we don't really need that to be the impetus here... Fact is, we'd likly get a NNE acceleration without this initial pull... I posted a number of reason just recently so I'm a little down with longwinded typing for now
... Anyway, gonna be interesting to see how this all plays out; perhaps a great learning example for interaction with the westerlies.
| swimaway19 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:43 AM |
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Re: Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP
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What do you think the NW motion would do to the NHC track? Would they keep the current track or would it be moved at landfall point N or S?
| zacker20 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:44 AM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
Yeah thats pretty much what alot of the mets in Tampa are saying now. Hmm thats really good news if it plays out.. Are you a met or a met hobbyist or both?
I am actually in college studying to be a met.
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:46 AM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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It definitely is going to be east of the first point. And if you xtrap to the next one, it will be east of that one also. It definitely appears to be moving more northwest at the moment. Also appears to have sped up slightly. Looking at IR the dark blackish color is appearing again near center. Could this be another intensification?
| Sadie |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:47 AM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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I can't help wondering in all this confusion, if there is any glimmer of what the FSU Superensemble is showing. Any hints?
| zacker20 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:49 AM |
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Re: Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP
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Quote:
What do you think the NW motion would do to the NHC track? Would they keep the current track or would it be moved at landfall point N or S?
It all depends on the timing of the trough. That will determine whether the track shifts northward or southward. Wilma will have to pick up her forward speed and continue moving northwest in order for the trough to bring her back to the northeast later. If she clips the eastern tip of the Yucatan pennisula and still is moving northwest, then she will be coming in more north on the FL pennisula, because of the angle she will be at when she is picked up by the trough. This is becomng less and less likely though, because Wilma is still moving at a very slow forward speed and is expected slowdown in the next 24 hours, which means the trough could completely miss her and she will go directly into the Yucatan, or she will be nudged directly east towards extreme southern FL and the keys.
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:50 AM |
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Re: Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP
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Quote:
What do you think the NW motion would do to the NHC track? Would they keep the current track or would it be moved at landfall point N or S?
Extrapolate the motion and you get the expected result, all things being equal.
Problem is, they never are.
I agree that the strong low that was over California - and that everyone (and the models) thought would come east, rather than northeast, and move slower than it actually did probably resulted in the "bad" GFDL track.
However, the amplification pulse that I (and a lot of other people!) in the form of the second trough is still coming, and the height falls in front of it are still going to happen. These storms tend to move into weakness, and that weakness is still going to be there.
A landfall into the Yucatan would be catastrophic for them, and even if it doesn't stop an impact in Florida, it would take some of the gas out of this thing. But - and this is a big but - anyone who bets the farm on that scenario right now could easily be picking up matchsticks in a few days.
I see differences in the pattern, but not in the overall synoptic environment, and I am getting increasingly concerned about a secondary (if you can call it that) impact in the New England area early next week due to the storm phasing with the front that looks to be moving right on schedule. A storm with 100kt winds moving at close to 50kts would be the equivalent of a 150kt storm if you're on the "wrong" side of it - that would be truly horiffic if it comes to pass, and way beyond anything that people are expecting up there.
I believe that we'll know quite a bit more by tomorrow evening in terms of whether the trough connection is going to "miss" or not, and if it does, if the height falls will be sufficient to initiate the movement north and eastward. My money is still on "yes", but I'm keeping a wary eye on this thing - this storm has been amazing so far, and those "wobbles" are something that I don't think I've ever seen before (at that level of amplitude) Those almost look like a mini-eye rotating around a larger, internal eye - a wild structure if indeed that's what's going on.....
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:52 AM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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Quote:
It definitely is going to be east of the first point. And if you xtrap to the next one, it will be east of that one also. It definitely appears to be moving more northwest at the moment. Also appears to have sped up slightly. Looking at IR the dark blackish color is appearing again near center. Could this be another intensification?
The dark blackish area is coming and going by the half hour. I've been wondering about that. Is there any shear in the area at all? Seems like a dumb question, as shear would likely weaken this thing beyond the unreal realm that it has been in since 2:30am ET, but something is causing the cloud tops to warm almost immediately after they cool. Overall, however, the cloud pattern is better than it was 2-3 hours ago. The eye has almost completely disappeared, though. Could this still be the ERC, which appeared to me to have ended? Based strictly on the lack of a strong eye, I'd say we're looking at a "weak" cat 5 or a "strong" cat 4 storm currently - 150-160 mph winds, but I could be way off.
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:55 AM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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The A98e model has it know going into central florida.It has shifted it track up north it could mean that later on the others might start doing the same thing we really need to keep an eye on this storm.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:56 AM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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certainly looks like wilma will be 100 miles east of the forcast point in an hour or less, which seems like more than a wobble
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:56 AM |
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Re: Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP
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Quote:Quote:
What do you think the NW motion would do to the NHC track? Would they keep the current track or would it be moved at landfall point N or S?
Extrapolate the motion and you get the expected result, all things being equal.
Problem is, they never are.
I agree that the strong low that was over California - and that everyone (and the models) thought would come east, rather than northeast, and move slower than it actually did probably resulted in the "bad" GFDL track.
However, the amplification pulse that I (and a lot of other people!) in the form of the second trough is still coming, and the height falls in front of it are still going to happen. These storms tend to move into weakness, and that weakness is still going to be there.
A landfall into the Yucatan would be catastrophic for them, and even if it doesn't stop an impact in Florida, it would take some of the gas out of this thing. But - and this is a big but - anyone who bets the farm on that scenario right now could easily be picking up matchsticks in a few days.
I see differences in the pattern, but not in the overall synoptic environment, and I am getting increasingly concerned about a secondary (if you can call it that) impact in the New England area early next week due to the storm phasing with the front that looks to be moving right on schedule. A storm with 100kt winds moving at close to 50kts would be the equivalent of a 150kt storm if you're on the "wrong" side of it - that would be truly horiffic if it comes to pass, and way beyond anything that people are expecting up there.
I believe that we'll know quite a bit more by tomorrow evening in terms of whether the trough connection is going to "miss" or not, and if it does, if the height falls will be sufficient to initiate the movement north and eastward. My money is still on "yes", but I'm keeping a wary eye on this thing - this storm has been amazing so far, and those "wobbles" are something that I don't think I've ever seen before (at that level of amplitude) Those almost look like a mini-eye rotating around a larger, internal eye - a wild structure if indeed that's what's going on.....
Amen - I implore you read some of my earlier posts... I'm thinking identically...!
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:56 AM |
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Re: Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP
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Where in New England and could the storm impact New York in any way? And when in New England?
I hope Wilma is the last big storm. I really don't want more people to have to go through what we just went
through. We still have a lot of rebuilding to do.
|
danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 12:57 AM |
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Confusion
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I've noticed quite a few comments about Wilma's wobbling. Dr Steve Lyon's at TWC had a closeup graphic of this earlier. Wilma's eye is indeed wobbling/ rotating around a central point. One of the FL NWS Offices mentioned two eyes, with the smaller eye rotating around the larger one. Concentric eyewalls ( different diameters ) were mention in the 19Z Vortex message.
This could be throwing some fluctuation into the models. I haven't looked at the center fixes so I'm guessing.
NOAA9, the Gulfstream is currently conducting pre-storm enviroment sampling, and Air Force Recon is scheduled for takeoff within the next 10 minutes.
Center fix is scheduled for 05Z or 1AM EDT.
00Z GFS Model run tonight should contain all of the data from the Gulfstream Flight. The model is normally finished it's run out to 120 hours/ 5 days, at 0430Z or 12:30AM EDT. Right now we have to resort to using the 18Z models.
An earlier post asked about the model times. The time is basically the "Start" of the data run.
Updates may be found at:
http://www.ncep.noaa.gov
Under " Current Status ".
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 01:06 AM |
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Re: Confusion
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I noticed a lot of the models shifting further south then before. BAMM is crossing Cuba & BAMM Deep is in the Keys. Is this a result of the secondary front?
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 01:06 AM |
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Re: Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP
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Quote:Quote:
What do you think the NW motion would do to the NHC track? Would they keep the current track or would it be moved at landfall point N or S?
It all depends on the timing of the trough. That will determine whether the track shifts northward or southward. Wilma will have to pick up her forward speed and continue moving northwest in order for the trough to bring her back to the northeast later. If she clips the eastern tip of the Yucatan pennisula and still is moving northwest, then she will be coming in more north on the FL pennisula, because of the angle she will be at when she is picked up by the trough. This is becomng less and less likely though, because Wilma is still moving at a very slow forward speed and is expected slowdown in the next 24 hours, which means the trough could completely miss her and she will go directly into the Yucatan, or she will be nudged directly east towards extreme southern FL and the keys.
Nice reasoning, might happen. You seem to have latched on to the 12Z GFDL idea - Don't see that likely. Took a peek at the water vapor and the ULL looks robust & is tracking due east - not too far north. In addition, the westerlies are already approaching the NW GOM and will soon be aligned along the northern Gulf Coast. The high over the western GOM is rapidly breaking down and the subtropical ridge to the east to starting to exert its influence on Wilma - moving it at a little faster clip to the NW now. I see Wilma riding the edge of the Atlantic Ridge and then being influenced by the westerlies as she gains latitude in the GOM - turning her NE. Unfortunately, I think there is little doubt of an ultimate landfall between Tampa and Key West.
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 01:10 AM |
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Re: Confusion
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Just for the sake of conversation, the A98 did shift north in the last run (towards Sarasota). I don't put any stock whatsoever into either the LBAR or the A98. Those two are well documented as being a P.O.S.... I'm not exactly worried about it. However... it did catch my eye and just thought I'd mention it.
| willw |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 01:11 AM |
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Re: Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP
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What i am hearing at the moment in the tampa/sarasota area is this is a SOUTH SOUTH florida event and while we are to keep a look at it just incase... Odds are we won't be affected maybe at all, they were saying maybe this weekend will be no wind or raid but a normal weekend... So that worries me a bit that the weather people here on the west coast think this is all but over. Considering people are saying it's going more east now, that only leads more to the naples area landfall or below that.
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 01:19 AM |
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Re: Confusion
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Im seeing wilma right on target to their track going through the yucatan peninsula she is on the west side of it. I can clearly also see the other eye that was mentioned earlier too.
| harmlc.ath.cx |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 01:19 AM |
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Re: Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP
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It's really to early to tell. As we saw earlier with the GFDL model, things can change at a moments notice. To say that it's for sure going to hit south florida is to premature at this time.
| Big Tk |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 01:19 AM |
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Re: Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP
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She seems to have picked up some speed since 5 pm. At this rate she'll be well north of the NHC forecast by tomorrow morning.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 01:20 AM |
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Re: Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP
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Our high res Wilma photo from today:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/?2005292-1019/Wilma.A2005292.1640.2km.jpg
(the sizes at the top increase the resolution - but the images get huge)
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 01:23 AM |
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Models
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Okay, I don't usually do this as I'm not a MET.
I just checked the last 24 hours of models runs on Dr Vigh's site at Colorado State.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/index.htm
If You live south of a Tampa to Kennedy Space Center line. One of the models has been over or close to You.
The outlier (furtherest North of all models) seems to be the LBAR model. But it is constant with it's location.
The models Will change over the next few days. The main intent here is to get people to Prepare for a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Wind Event.
If You, or someone You know. Live south of a Tampa to Kennedy Space Center Line, then please get things in order for probable power and water outage, and possible evacuation.
If you are placed under a Mandatory or Voluntary Evacuation...Please Leave.
Especially those near low lying areas that are prone to flash flooding, rivers, streams and the Beaches.
Please consult your local NWS Office, Weather Radio or NHC for Official Statements, Watches and Warnings~danielw
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 01:23 AM |
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Re: Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP
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what station?
| JG |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 01:25 AM |
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Re: Models
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Quote:
Okay, I don't usually do this as I'm not a MET.
I just checked the last 24 hours of models runs on Dr Vigh's site at Colorado State.
If You live south of a Tampa to Kennedy Space Center line. One of the models has been over or close to You.
The outlier (furtherest North of all models) seems to be the LBAR model. But it is constant with it's location.
The models Will change over the next few days. The main intent here is to get people to Prepare for a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Wind Event.
If You, or someone You know. Live south of a Tampa to Kennedy Space Center Line, then please get things in order for probable power and water outage, and possible evacuation.
If you are placed under a Mandatory or Voluntary Evacuation...Please Leave.
Especially those near low lying areas that are prone to flash flooding, rivers, streams and the Beaches.
Interesting. I've been asking as to why the LBAR is so much of an outlier and if you remember, the GFDL moves towards it, then away, then back, etc. over the last 3 days.
But it has been constant putting the storm over the Tampa area. Anyone with a scientific reason why?
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 01:26 AM |
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Re: Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP
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Is that some dry air coming in from the NW quadrant on the 0:15 IR frame?
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 01:26 AM |
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Re: Models
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Are they a pretty reliable source with your past experiences? Is this the colorado university where Dr. Gray is?
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 01:28 AM |
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Re: Confusion
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BRM, yeah I saw that too - the LBAR is usually a far outlier and the other model is a statistically based one. But, its interesting that the LBAR keeps shifting north along the coast, the UKMET shifted north from the Keys to Ft Myers, & the NOGAPs is near Ft Myers. I'm a little concerned about the slightly faster more poleward motion over the last 6-8 hrs. Too soon to see if this is a trend, but the faster Wilma moves with a more northward motion, the more latitude she will gain prior to the NE turn. We all know what that means.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 01:34 AM |
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CO State Univ
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Quote:
Are they a pretty reliable source with your past experiences? Is this the colorado university where Dr. Gray is?
They plot the output from the models every six hours, and archive it for reference.
Yes, Dr Gray, is listed as Senior Resident Scientist at CSU.
http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/dept/deptfaclist.php
Please edit your quotes down to a small quote. We are taking large amounts of space repeating posts.
Thank You~danielw
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 01:57 AM |
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Re: Models
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LBAR (Limited area sine transform BARotropic) is a two-dimensional track prediction model which solves the shallow-water equations initialized with vertically averaged (850-200 hPa) winds and heights from the Aviation Run of the MRF global model (Horsfall et al 1997). An idealized symmetric vortex and a constant vector (equal to the initial storm motion vector) are added to the global model analysis to represent the storm circulation. The boundary conditions are obtained from the global model forecast, and the model equations are solved using the spectral sine transform technique described by Chen et al (1997). To make LBAR timely, initial and boundary conditions are obtained from the 6 hr old MRF forecast. LBAR was developed as an operational version of the experimental VICBAR model (Aberson and DeMaria 1994).
Here is the science JG - I would say it is as clear as mud.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 02:07 AM |
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Re: CO State Univ
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Here's my own personal opinion on what happened with Max Mayfield's PC this afternoon:
People saw the GFDL doing some weird things and latched onto that model ONLY, pretty much disregarding the enselmble models that he alluded to BEFORE he showed the GFDL model. We must all remember what he said: there is HIGH UNCERTAINTY in this forecast path and EVERYONE in Florida needs to pay attention.
I don't see, at this point anyway, that the storm has showed any sign of slowing down or stalling out...as of now. We must pay attention to ALL of the models; the GFDL may have been a fluke OR it could be valid. We have to be patient and wait.
Is there a chance that the ULL in the middle of the country could stall out, allowing Wilma to continue on her W/NW course? Yes. Is there a chance that the same ULL could still dive further south, allowing it to pick up Wilma? Yes. Everything hinges on what the ULL does and I am not, at this point, ready to buy into a non-event for ANY part of Florida, as Daniel and many others have stated.
Frankly, it's still moving as it was supposed to be doing. I will be interested in taking a look at what the WV loops look like right now to see where that ULL is and if it's still speeding along like it was.
And I 2nd Daniel's request: please stop quoting, requoting and then answering. It takes a lot of time to read everything and it takes up too much bandwidth.
Thanks,
Colleen :-)
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 02:11 AM |
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Re: Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP
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Quote:
Is that some dry air coming in from the NW quadrant on the 0:15 IR frame?
I've looked at the 0015z IR frame and the ones before and since it.. and I must ask... is WHAT some dry air?
The NE quadrant looks like it might have weakened somewhat out from the eye in the 0115z IR frame, but not the NW quadrant.
Looks like we're still seeing the spinning upon itself, too, with now more of a WNW net movement again.
Where is the new recon??? It's been 5 hours.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 02:14 AM |
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Re: Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP
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Also looks like it will wobble close to the forecast point as well.
| CDMOrlando |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 02:17 AM |
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Re: Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP
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here is a some information concerning the data that has been included in the 00Z run:
NCEP Operational Status Message
Thu Oct 20 01:39:59 2005 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 200136
ADMNFD SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NCEP/NWS/WASHINGTON DC
0130 UTC THU OCT 20 2005
200130Z...THE 00Z NAM STARTED ON TIME. FOR THE START OF THE 00Z CYCLE NCEP RECEIVED 27 UPPER AIR REPORTS FROM CANADA...2 FROM THE CARIBBEAN...NONE FROM MEXICO.
UPPER AIR DATA LOOKED VERY GOOD FOR THE START OF THE 00Z NAM.
A USAFR RECON AIRCRAFT TRANSMITTED A FEW DROPS AND FLIGHT LEVEL REPORTS IN SUPPORT OF HURRICANE WILMA OPERATIONS BEFORE THE START OF THE 00Z CYCLE.
A GOES EAST RSO IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 22/2326Z. KNEAS/SDM/NCO/NCEP
The Mets will need to comment on if this appears to be enough data to make a difference.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 02:17 AM |
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Re: Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP
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Close to it, maybe... but it is still well east of the forecast point. Soon it will be north of it until it jogs SW (which is possible with the way this thing has been wobbling)..
The good news right now is that at least to my eyes, Wilma is not re-strengthening (yet)... so maybe I was wrong earlier when I predicted that we might once again wake up to the most intense hurricane on record (meaning stronger than it was at 4am today).
Can a MET or someone with more knowledge answer this.... earlier it was apparent that we were in the midst of an ERC... yet the overall cloud pattern has not deteriorated signifcantly. Sure, it doesn't look like the massive ball of black that it did at 5am this morning when I woke up.. but it doesn't look like it has weakened to less than 155 mph to me, either. Is the ERC completed, or did it never begin really?
| abyrd |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 02:28 AM |
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Interesting stuff from the panhandle discussion
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JUST TO GIVE YOU AN
IDEA OF HOW CRAZY THIS HURRICANE SEASON HAS BEEN, HERE IS A SUMMARY
OF SOME OF THE RECORDS THAT HAVE BEEN ESTABLISHED SO FAR THIS
SEASON. IT IS NOT INTENDED TO BE AN EXHAUSTIVE LIST.
STRONGEST GULF HURRICANE IN MONTH OF JULY (DENNIS).
MOST TROPICAL CYCLONES TO DEVELOP IN JULY (5).
MOST MAJOR HURRICANES TO DEVELOP IN JULY (2; TIED WITH 1916).
MOST TROPICAL CYCLONES TO DEVELOP IN JUNE AND JULY (7).
EARLIEST DATE FOR 4TH (D) STORM (DENNIS, JULY 5), AND MOST IF NOT
ALL LETTERS THEREAFTER.
MOST NAMED STORMS (21; TIED WITH 1933).
MOST HURRICANES IN A SEASON (12; TIED WITH 1969).
FIRST EVER V STORM (VINCE)
FIRST EVER W STORM (WILMA)
STRONGEST HURRICANE ON RECORD IN ATLANTIC BASIN (WILMA).
COSTLIEST NATURAL DISASTER IN U.S. HISTORY (KATRINA).
DEADLIEST HURRICANE IN U.S. SINCE 1928 (KATRINA).
This is not my list, this is cut straight from the panhandle disco. However, I think the 3 cat 5s is also one. Also, I heard that of the top 6 strongest hurricanes, three were this year!
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 02:31 AM |
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Re: Interesting stuff from the panhandle discussion
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You left off one... most named storms in June (2) (perhaps only since a long time ago, I can't remember exactly). It seems insignificant at this point, but it was a bit of a sign of things to come, even back then.
there were three storms in june 1968. last time prior to this year there were 2 was 1986. it's not common, but not unprecedented. -HF
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 02:32 AM |
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Re: Interesting stuff from the panhandle discussion
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Is the fact that we have had three cat 5's in one season a record also? I haven't confirmed that yet.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 02:37 AM |
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Re: Interesting stuff from the panhandle discussion
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now a cat 4....
(for how long?)
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...18.1 N... 84.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 894 MB.
'estimated minimum central pressure...from the Advisory text'~danielw
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 02:37 AM |
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Re: Interesting stuff from the panhandle discussion
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NEWS FLASH JIM Cantorie going to Ft Myers by 4pm he said tomorrow....LOL that means they are thinking,,,Naples-Sarasota.....but no one really knows forsure.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 02:37 AM |
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Re: Interesting stuff from the panhandle discussion
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Not much respite, at 155.
| D3m3NT3DVoRT3X |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 02:39 AM |
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Re: Interesting stuff from the panhandle discussion
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i dunno ussaly where jim ends up has a pretty good shot he seems to pretty close to landfall every time ..
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 02:39 AM |
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Re: Interesting stuff from the panhandle discussion
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I believe 3 cat 5's is a record as well...
BREAKING NEWS! Wilma has been downgraded as of 11pm to a cat 4. Winds are down to 155mph.
Pressure is 894. Forecast track... landfall is hard to guage, but the 2pm Sunday position is on the east coast of the peninsula, due east of Lake Okechobee(sp?). The Monday 2pm position appears to be a few hundred miles off the coast of Delaware.
Storm Hunter: To answer your "for how long?" question... my guess is 6 hours, or less. Whenever the next plane is in the eyewall.
| willw |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 02:41 AM |
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Re: Models
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uhh is it just me or is this newest track more northerly....
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 02:43 AM |
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Re: Models
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Its the same Will...nothing has changed...........................
| dkpcb |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 02:43 AM |
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Re: Wilma Continued
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This is a link to on IR Satellite animation of Wilma.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/animir.html
DK
| abyrd |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 02:44 AM |
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Re: Interesting stuff from the panhandle discussion
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The strike probabilities decreased for Ft. Myers and Naples by 1 percentage pt, but remained the same for Marco Island (7), Key West (9) and Tampa (5). The NHC also added the entire eastern seaboard to the wind probability table with a chance of tropical storm for winds all the way to Canada.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 02:44 AM |
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Re: Interesting stuff from the panhandle discussion
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Does that forecast track re-verify what the GFDL was showing earlier today? If it's ON the East Coast of Florida, than landfall appears to be on track with the 11am advisory. Hm.
| willw |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 02:48 AM |
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Re: Interesting stuff from the panhandle discussion
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well to be fair
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_5day.html
and
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_forecast.asp
i guess i see what it is, so yeah same. Not further north... But the fact that they expect it to be THAT sharp is kinda far fetched imo, i don't think of a ENE as it suggests.. i dunno though
we'll see
| gk |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 02:52 AM |
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Re: Interesting stuff from the panhandle discussion
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Call me unexperienced but after reviewing the lastest model tracks and water vapor loops over the US I see wilma landfalling near Tampa and exiting neat St Augustine, closer to the LBAR. I know I was told earlier the the LBAR is a statistical model and is not reliable. My question is why are they still using it. The steering currents from the north are not looking like they are dipping south as predicted. I know there are other things I do not understand, but sometimes things are not as complicated as some may think. What is the possibility that I am right?
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 02:53 AM |
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Landfall suggestions?
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Colleen, I'm with you on that thought and theory. The GFS still has about 1.5-2 hours before the data run is completed. I think the next GFDL run at 06Z (2AM EDT) should include ANY possible changes.
An afterthought about Jim Cantore and landfall. Jim is very mobile. Even with a camera and Satellite truck. More mobile than most families. So please don't count on any specific point being the Landfall point.
Jim was 40 miles East of Katrina's landfall point. I highly suspect that was an intentional mislocation, due to Katrina's surge effects.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 02:55 AM |
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Re: Interesting stuff from the panhandle discussion
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Everyone, just to lighten the mood, not sure if anyone has heard this. Click on the link
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFDL_18z/ghmloop.html
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 02:57 AM |
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Re: Interesting stuff from the panhandle discussion
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You could very well be right, but I hope not. Tampa Bay is not off the hook on this at all.
| abyrd |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 03:01 AM |
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Re: Interesting stuff from the panhandle discussion
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New thread on the main page.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 03:01 AM |
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Re: Landfall suggestions?
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Appears that the drier air is really getting sucked in at this point and inhibiting sustained intensity.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 03:02 AM |
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Re: Models
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The track is basically the same, but the time frame has changed to much later. Landfall Sunday AM rather than Saturday PM.
| komi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 03:03 AM |
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Re: Landfall suggestions?
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I think, in this moment any landfall suggestion is just a wild guess ... Thay talking about moving on NE in next 24-36 hours, and all we know to this models will change several times before lanfall ... Like moderator says .. everyone south from Tampa should be ready, but ,making prediction in this moment just make people more nervous then they should be - yet ..
Possible lanfall on Yucatan will change cat and landfall position too ..
NO ONE knows when Wilma will turn, and in what direction ...
| erauwx |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 03:08 AM |
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new thread - see main page.
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just to let everyone know -- there is a new topic posted. see the main page