(Moderator)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:08 AM

Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest

Okay...looks like the GFDL is back on track. As mentioned in the 9:30pm update on the main page, it appears that it was a fluke.
I don't care where you are in Florida: please keep apprised of this storm because like we just saw, things can change in just a matter of hours. The models seem to be in better alignment then previously. This is extremely important at this time.
It is also expected to regain Cat 5 status again.

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:09 AM

Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest

894mb Category 4. There is something wrong with this picture!

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:10 AM

Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest

Quote:

Is the fact that we have had three cat 5's in one season a record also? I haven't confirmed that yet.

Yes. Wilma has set or tied a lot of records in addition to that one: first "W" storm, tied 1933 record for number of storms for a season, tied 1995 for number of major hurricanes, fastest intensification for both pressure and winds, lowest pressure ever measured in ATL basin.

Evening everybody.

Waves at buoy 42056 have started to go over 20 feet now. This will be interesting to watch over the next 36 hours. I'm not sure how long it will report back once Wilma gets close, passing west of the buoy. If Wilma deviates to the east of the projected track (not likely) things would be immensely more interesting, as she'd intensify and the eye would go fairly near.

Oddly, Wilma is looking remarkably healthy and well-organized for being in an ERC. She maintains a continuity especially in the strong core, and continues the same rhythm of increasing/decreasing convection and size, and continues to maintain a uniform "buzzsaw" shape. The eye still maintains a very distinct appearance even while filling in. In an odd way she still seems to be very steady state. She does look to have dropped down to a Cat 4 now, but likely to still be maintaining a very low pressure.

Maybe it is just that the eyewall replacement is happening very very slowly (Wilma has taken her time with just about everything).

There have been a lot of comments about wobbling, changes in direction, but Wilma is moving very consistently. Her movement is oscillating in a way that is described as cycloidal. Does anyone remember the drawing toy Spirograph? A lot of the patterns were all generated by cycloidal movement. To see this type of movement, ake a pencil and cut out a circle from cardboard, punch a hole in it that is off-center. Now cut a curve into the remaining piece, and lay it on a piece of paper, stick the pencil in the hole of the circle, and then rotate (not slide) the circle along the curve. The movement the pencil traces out onto the paper is cycloidal. The movement of the moon about the sun is similar.

So...all intense hurricanes have these movements, however sometimes they are very small and not perceptible. With Wilma the movement is quite large, making it noticeable on satellite images, but it is not particularly unusual. The technical term that was mentioned in one of the discussions is "trochoidal oscillations" and so if you are interested in finding out about why more intense hurricanes are prone to this type of movement, goggle it with the word hurricane.

dolfinatic

(Weather Guru)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:11 AM

Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest

ok. 11 pm disc. is out. Interesting they are starting to talk about possibly going extratropical after 96 hours. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200524.disc.html

mattgator

(Registered User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:15 AM

Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest

I am a new poster but have been obsessed with watching storms mostly because my shutter company has not yet come through (in Miami). Can anyone answer this basic question: When the NHC issues a statement that says " Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center" are they referring to the diameter of that windfield (i.e 70 miles) or the radius (i.e. 140 mile windfield)? I just have trouble visualizing hurricane force winds with a 140 mile swath.

Many thanks and let's hope for "rapid weakening"

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:16 AM

Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest

11pm discussion is out.

ERC underway - new 40nm eye forming around the existing 4nm eye. That expains the satellite appearence and the 894mb pressure at only a Category 4. Ok, I see this ERC finishing by morning probably (though NHC says it might not be until tomorrow night). I wonder if it will end in time for the diurnal cycle to help it recover or not.

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:17 AM

Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest

Mattgator: They refer to the radius.

This is a good visualization - the inner most circle is hurricane force:
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=t&m=24

(Weather Guru)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:19 AM

Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest

Been watching Wilma for the past few days just like everyone else. She looks to be close to where I figured she would be at this time, maybe a bit west if anything. One thing though is that I figured a more pronounced turn would have begun by now. Instead she still appears to be stair-stepping. In my opinion this lends a bit more validity to Wilma actually making some sort of landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:20 AM

Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest

Quote:

894mb Category 4. There is something wrong with this picture!

Well, remember they don't want to make the same mistake they made earlier today, picking 900mb when recon later found she had only gone up to 892mb.

WXMAN RICHIE

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:21 AM

Weird Signs

I know that many people have talked about weird signs/things that animals/insects do before a storm approaches/hits. I have seen numerous bull ants walking across my floor tonight. I have never seen these things in my house in 15 years here. Weird or a sign of things to come down the road? We will know in a few days.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:22 AM

Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest

ive been following all this season and iwas wondering what does extratropical mean? thanks becky

dolfinatic

(Weather Guru)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:26 AM

Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest

if i remember correctly a tropical system is a warm core system and a extratropical system is a cold core one.

Londovir

(Weather Guru)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:27 AM

Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest

Does anyone happen to have a good link where loop satellite data is archived? I'm particularly interested in a looped animation of the eye movement from earlier today.

I'm trying to work up a unit for my Calculus class that works with Prolate Cycloids, which is the class of curve the path of the eye moved today. (Prolate cycloids are a special subclass of trochoids, as everyone has been mentioning on here) It's very rare to get your hands on a classic real-life problem like this (thank goodness!), and I want to preserve it somehow for use in mathematics academia.

If someone has a site or source, please PM me at your convenience.

In the meantime, they've moved all the local football games to Thursday night, so they're taking it seriously as far as that goes - plus the EOCs around are on alert status, monitoring and ready to go into motion. I'm glad to see it's not complete "snoozeville" with the planned southern path.

(Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:29 AM

Re: Weird Signs

I have heard the weirdest sounds from some kind of bird or animal outside my house the last couple of nights.Never heard anything like this in my life,really strange sound.I will be getting a hotel room tommorow in my area just to play it safe.

Rasvar

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:36 AM

into the crystal ball

Good discussion at 11:00. Interesting insights. Almost looks like a play it safe forecast. I have no problem with that. Still a lot of time to shift this track further north. This will still keep S Fla awake. Tampa should not relax yet either. I don't think the track gets up that high; but the effects sure could. This may be one of those systems that you can not say anything certain until it actually happens. The slower track buys some extra time. Also makes me wonder if JB may actually be on it this time. Only time will tell.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:50 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

The 00Z GFS is starting to come in and it's shifted more west to Yucatan (from its last run) so far.

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:53 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

Well, here's how fast things can change from 5pm to 11pm. Denis Phillips is now saying that he "thinks" that landfall may occur somewhere between Ft. Myers and Naples...although if the turn happens later, it could still come closer to TB. He is also saying that "you may want to think about making hotel reservations...the further north the better, because if you go inland, you may see the same effects we had with Charley."
Now, at 5pm, NONE of this was even mentioned by him; in fact, he was pretty much believing that it could go through the the Florida Straights and have no effect on our weather at all. That was ALL because of one wacko model. Even his Titan model is further west than it was at 5pm.
Just goes to show you...things can change on a dime, and don't bite into one big giant piece of stinky cheese. If anyone watched the 5-6pm edition of his "forecast" and didn't watch the 11pm edition, they may be under a false sense of security. Personally, I think that is completely irresponsible on the met's part. All other local mets were not convinced that the GFDL model was "all there".
Stay tuned, stay prepared and ALWAYS stay alert.

Sneakbridge

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:57 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

Always the rush to be the first one to have the 'correct' forecast. Dennis is really spirited, you have to give him that.

Bull Ants - Fought them the last two nights entering my house as well... I think there is a time of year they travel around more and might not be hurricane related though I'd figure...

I think the NHC has once again done a tremendous job so far.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:58 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

Where can i see the GFS 00z run as its coming in.Anyone have a link to it?

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:58 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

I did not see my local weather this evening. Was disgusted that they did not carry Max Mayfield, so I boycotted them. Colleen, any news on Orlando Stations?

(Meteorologist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:58 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

and it frustrates me because i've been trying to say this all day... which is, such a massive discontinuity is almost never right!

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:59 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

00z GFS stalls WIlma over the Yucatan... again...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/fp1_060.shtml

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:59 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

Quote:

Where can i see the GFS 00z run as its coming in.Anyone have a link to it?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/index_slp_m_loop.shtml

It's showing a dramatic weakening over Yucatan and then it shoves back out towards Cuba in a ESE direction. That's as far as it is right now.

Now 84 hours has the storm in the Yucatan channel.

(Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:00 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

Well,2 things seem to have changed from this morning.1 they feel it maybe stronger at landfall here in FL.2 the track seems to be set more into a south Florida hit.Hopefully things will change,But we have to prepare for the worst here in S Florida.

(Meteorologist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:01 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

http://ggweather.com/loops/ncep_loops.htm

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:08 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

No, I didn't watch the Orlando stations tonight. Although I think it's a safe bet that they are saying the same thing all the other stations are saying:

STAY TUNED.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:09 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

Bob, they will change. So no worries, you may only get some squally weather.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:11 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

Actually it weakens then restrengthens it as it moves into SW FL..

tpratch

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:12 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

Bob, they've been calling for a Cat 3 at landfall since this morning.

As for the current track, you know that these things change 3-4 days out (which this storm's forecast currently is). Plenty can and likely will change between now and then.

(Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:15 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

I would love to believe that.But given the models,we have to get ready for the worse.The GDFL is the one I trust,and that does take it over my area.People are very scared here,even the long time locals.

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:16 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

11 PM Advisory is what I expected intensity-wise - however Wilma is not weakening as much as I expected. Winds are at 155MPH with the pressure at 894mb... This would make her an extremely strong Cat 4, but I can bet that those wind speeds are conservative, because with that pressure being so low they could be well over category 5 strength.

Looking at the latest computer model runs and water vapor images, it appears that Wilma is beginning to incorporate some northerly component in her movements. It hasn't made any significant turn, but it has began to jog a little more to the northwest. The general motion of the storm still remains west-northwest, but I believe over the next 6-12 hours Wilma will begin to start heading in a purely Northwest direction. The forward speed has increased to 8mph, not that notable of a difference, but still that is different from what we were expecting. I was expecting it to slowdown some, but actually the forward motion has continued and kind of increased. The High Pressure ridge is beginning to weaken due to the trough starting to sag southward and by this time tomorrow, Wilma should find a weakness in that ridge and begin to move northward into the Gulf of Mexico. The point where Wilma enters the Gulf of Mexico will greatly determine where she makes landfall on the Florida pennisula. I am still shooting for the trough to pick up Wilma directly between the Yucatan channel and the Western tip of Cuba and shoot her eastward towards southern Florida. But, I may have to adjust the track a bit northward based on this increase in forward motion. Basically, we're looking at a south of Naples landfall. That's the most likely scenario right now.

But, once again, I must stress that it is still not improbable that Wilma will not be picked up by this trough. She may very well slowdown tomorrow morning/afternoon and continue on a WNW motion right into the eastern Yucatan pennisula. However, this slight northwesterly movement over the last couple of hours is an indication that Wilma is beginning to be influenced by the weakening high pressure ridge. The trough is not influencing her yet, but I expect it will continue to erode that ridge and we will see Wilma beginning a NNW, or northward motion by this time tomorrow into the Gulf of Mexico.

For Central Florida, chances remain pretty low that Wilma will have a direct impact. It all depends on if Wilma picks up forward speed. If she starts increasing her speed and manages to clip the eastern Yucatan pennisula before being turned to the northeast, she will gain a higher latitude and come in further north on the pennisula. However, I am still not sold that it would be Central Florida. In my mind, the furthest north it can go is Sarasota. The trough is just moving too fast and Wilma is not likely to beat it.

The intensity forecast remains complicated still. If she moves into the GOM as planned, she will weaken. Interaction with the Yucatan pennisula will also help weaken the system. There are colder temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, they are running 79-81F and the deep water is much cooler than the surface. Also, this trough will cause quite a bit of shear on the system. I just don't see a Category 4 system making landfall in Florida if this scenario plays out. Once she emerges in the Gulf and begins her track to the Northeast, she will begin weakening rapidly. I am calling for a minimal to moderate Category 3 storm with winds no more than 120mph. That's still a dangerous storm, but a lot less damaging then a Cat 4 system coming in.

Let me know if you guys have any questions. Sorry, it comes 1 hour after the advisory, but I wanted to make sure my forecast was right

efaulkSWFLA

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:17 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

Hello All.. In the past 48hrs we have heard here that this storm was going to enter apprx. at the south shore of Lake O, then it was the north shore, then possibly Charlotte Har. Then reports of Sarasota to even Tampa.

Is it safe to say that here in Ft Myers, we have a pretty good shot at a direct hit? Is it wise to get out sometime Friday?

Right now. The southern half of the FL Peninsula has a 50/50 shot at Hurricane Force winds.
That is subject to and will change.

Friday would be a good point to plan on leaving...but again. That is dependant on what Wilma does Tomorrow.

I would get everything ready and makes your reservations. Then Friday you can load and go.~danielw

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:17 AM

Changes

Yes it changed again. And the 06Z and the 12Z and the 18Z models will probably change too.

It's great that you are paying close attention to Wilma. But remember. If you put you ear to the floor to listen for elephants. They may sneak up on you before you hear them.
Back off once in a while and look at the Satellite pics of the whole Lower 48 states. Don't stay to focused or fixated.

Ok I'm finished.

Other than the Keys. Has anyone heard any additional evacuation plans from the counties?

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:19 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

Looking at the IR loops I see no northerly movement beyond the general direction it has been on for some time now. In the last frame it is heading back west of the NHC forecast point. There's so much jogging it's hard to tell but it looks like its still on the same general path towards the Yucatan.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:22 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

I am looking at whats comming down on the NOGAPS and at 72 Hrs, its due north of Cozumel about the 23.5 -24 Degree mark. Further west then the 18Z was at around this time..

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:23 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

Quote:

I am looking at whats comming down on the NOGAPS and at 72 Hrs, its due north of Cozumel about the 23.5 -24 Degree mark. Further west then the 18Z was at around this time..

Do you have a link on that one? TIA

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:23 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

Quote:

Looking at the IR loops I see no northerly movement beyond the general direction it has been on for some time now. In the last frame it is heading back west of the NHC forecast point. There's so much jogging it's hard to tell but it looks like its still on the same general path towards the Yucatan.

It's not moving northward, but it has began a sligh northwest jog. You can see it slightly happening over the last couple of hours. It has been moving just slightly north of west and this could be the beginnings of a northwesterly trend.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:24 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

Thanks and 1 more where can i get the GDFL as its coming out the loop of it like the GFS one.

Thanks.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:29 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

Other than the Keys. Has anyone heard any additional evacuation plans from the counties?

Quote:

Most of the counties are having their emergency meetings tommorrow, then they'll decide what actions to take.

Wxwatcher2

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:30 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

Quote:

I would love to believe that.But given the models,we have to get ready for the worse.The GDFL is the one I trust,and that does take it over my area.People are very scared here,even the long time locals.

The media has made us increasingly afraid of hurricanes especially this year with the Mississippi coast and New Orleans. The old time residents should know better than to panic.

Prepare as best you can and if you feel unsafe in your home, evacuate to a shelter or further North.
It's a couple of days out but it's looking more and more like a SW Florida event cutting across the state near West Palm area.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:30 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/logout.do?requestId=1126908274163.1786.1

Click on public records and then pic tropical Atlantic. Then have fun and play.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:33 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

URNT11 KNHC 200413
97779 04104 50214 83010 76200 04017 6678/ /5758
RMK AF308 0924A WILMA OB 04

looks like recon was to the NE of center.... and just south of tip of cuba
plane was at:
21.4n - 83.0w at 0410z

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:34 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

Quote:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/logout.do?requestId=1126908274163.1786.1

Click on public records and then pic tropical Atlantic. Then have fun and play.

Am I reading it right that NOGAPS is now showing a Yucatan landfall and then reemergence north of Yucatan in the Gulf? What happens after that as it moves east?

(Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:34 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

If it keeps on it's current path and forcast strength,what do you guys think will be the impact on my area?

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:34 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

I am using a very long stethascope to hear the elephants to ensure that I am not bending over. 00Z NOGAPS moved north, to just north of Sarasota, just South of Tampa.

OK OK Enough Model Talk.. I am all oout of models for now anyways.. Who's got the UKMET ?

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:37 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

GFS and connected models are really out to lunch now. May well stand for Good For Sh**....

Turning my attention to another models then...
NOGAPS has been slowly moving northward. This run looks to take Wilma into Bradenton/just south of Tampa. Could catch some folks with their pants down if this verifies

Edit: (Just saw my post pretty much echoes Toho above me... sorry about that... slow typer)

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:38 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

It dosn't look good for Ft.lauderdale on it's current track, but it's bound to change. You'd be getting the northern quadrant, and pretty much the core wind fields. The only good news is it would be already on land, and moving fast. But these models area bound to change in the next 3-4 days.

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:39 AM

Re: Changes

I have to say I agree with Daniel...this IS a hurricane after all, and we know that we will see changes in tracks, intensity, so forth over the next few days. You cannot look at every jog to determine what the true direction is...look for trends.
Ftlaudbob: there is no reason to panic if you have your preparations made. If you feel as though you need to leave, then by all means do so. Bringing it up here again and again and again is not going to change the outcome of this storm. You may get hit, you may not get hit. Same thing here with me, and I'm on the WEST COAST of Florida. I am not in a panic mode and I will not be because I already KNOW what I will do if my area is threatened. I've known since the beginning of hurricane season.
If you haven't figured it out by now, then either you don't heed the warnings posted here and by your local officials, or you just want to keep riding the "I don't know what to do" train until it runs out of deisel fuel. You have been told over and over what to do. So please do it...if you don't do it, then please stop pulling the fire alarm button.
Get a hold of yourself. For the sake and sanity of all of us here.

(Weather Guru)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:40 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

Quote:

For Central Florida, chances remain pretty low that Wilma will have a direct impact. It all depends on if Wilma picks up forward speed. If she starts increasing her speed and manages to clip the eastern Yucatan pennisula before being turned to the northeast, she will gain a higher latitude and come in further north on the pennisula. However, I am still not sold that it would be Central Florida. In my mind, the furthest north it can go is Sarasota.

By what time do you think we might have some degree of confidence in predicting what will happen to central Florida? Tomorrow (Thu.) evening?

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:42 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

We won't know for certain until it makes its turn to the northeast.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:49 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

can you guys link the nogaps?

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:50 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

Quote:

By what time do you think we might have some degree of confidence in predicting what will happen to central Florida? Tomorrow (Thu.) evening?

Yes, once it begins to make that turn to the northeast, we will have a very good idea of where landfall will occur. That turn to the northeast is expected on Friday evening, so there is still some time to monitor it.

Just make mental preparations now. No need to get ready to evacuate. Things are looking good for Central Florida and right now all you can do is wait and see if it makes a drastic move (because a landfall in Central Florida would be pretty drastic as of right now). There's simply nothing else to do. Go about your business, but also keep in mind that there is a rather dangerous hurricane heading towards the pennisula and stay tuned to this website and the NHC.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:51 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

Quote:

can you guys link the nogaps?

Try this:

http://tinyurl.com/dhzf2

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:53 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

URNT11 KNHC 200443
97779 04400 50193 83219 30800 13065 08089 /3091
RMK AF308 0924A WILMA OB 05

plane was at 19.3n 83.2w at 0440z
alt down to 10105ft.... from 25000ft... on the way in!!
winds at flight level: 65kts? from 130 degrees.

corrected windspeed~danielw

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:53 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

Here's a pretty good picture.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

edited to remove 5 hour old image and replace it with link to conserve space~danielw

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:53 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

Check your inbox I sent it too you..

(Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:54 AM

Re: Changes

I guess we are all under stress,but more so for south Florida.Tampa looks less and less liklely.

(Weather Guru)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:57 AM

Re: into the crystal ball

Thanks for this answer and for all the info you guys provide on this website!

We are rather nervous here as Chaley left some very bad memories for many around here and ther are at least two models (A98E and LBAR) which still are pointing at us. Add to this that nobody is sure how strong Wilma will be at landfall AND that I hear that it might cross the penensula so fast that it would not weaken much, if at all, and you will see why we remain rather concerned around here even though, unlike last year, we were spared so far this year.

Many thanks again to all & good luck!

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:57 AM

Re: Changes

Bob, take a look at the latest NOGAPS. You may want to update that thought.

00z NOGAPS makes a hit just south of Tampa.

Look, we are all concerned for you in S. FL, but please do not let your abundance of concern for yourself and your city overshadow other opinions.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:58 AM

Re: Changes

Today will be a very telling day as to where Wilma is planned to make impact at. Any increase in speed will make the landfall more to the north, so everyone should still pay attention to Wilma, up and down the coast of florida. That's why there is a cone of uncertainty, and one shouldn't just pay attention to the line down the middle.

(Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:02 AM

Re: Changes

It is alone in it's forcast,so for now I will write it off.The GDFL is the one I watch,and the other models are closer to it.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:09 AM

Re: Changes

BTW where can we get the GDFL early like the Nogaps and the GFS? would like to see the 0Z run of it before bed.

(Weather Guru)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:09 AM

Re: Changes

Are some models know to be generally more reliable then others or does the choice of model depend on the type of storm and circumstances?

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:11 AM

Re: Changes

Recon is near the Center. At first glance it appears the tropical storm and maybe even the Hurricane Force wind field has enlarged.

This is probably due to ERC and Wilma now having a larger Eye. Therefore a larger windfield.

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:15 AM

Models

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:16 AM

Re: Changes

Yea, on the latest satellite loops it appears as if the center has been expanding outwards.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:17 AM

Re: Models

Here pick a model any model. This shows the current model spread and also the most recent NOGAPS. This is current.. for now.. http://img292.imageshack.us/img292/9856/al2420057hd.jpg

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:17 AM

Re: Changes

Look like she still may have Concentric Eyewalls.
Two wind field maximums.

Max flt lvl wind 121kts. Pressure Center near 18.0N?=/ 84.6W

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:22 AM

Re: Models

Thanks.

The new CMC i see on the site is out and it shows key west! so go figure where this is going to go as it has about the same chance i guess to go where the cmc says as much as the gaps.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:24 AM

Re: Models

Quote:

Thanks.

The new CMC i see on the site is out and it shows key west! so go figure where this is going to go as it has about the same chance i guess to go where the cmc says as much as the gaps.

This is interesting because CMC has it just grazing the Yucatan (not unlike the current NHC track) and yet it still end up a Keys event.

When is the next UKMET run?

(Weather Guru)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:27 AM

Re: Models

Quote:

Here pick a model any model. This shows the current model spread and also the most recent NOGAPS. This is current.. for now.. http://img292.imageshack.us/img292/9856/al2420057hd.jpg

Where did you get this pic?

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:27 AM

Re: Models

URNT12 KNHC 200525
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/05:13:00Z
B. 18 deg 00 min N
084 deg 36 min W
C. 700 mb 2209 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 142 deg 120 kt
G. 046 deg 034 nm
H. 899 mb
I. 16 C/ 3045 m
J. 18 C/ 3039 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C4
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0924A WILMA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 120 KT NE QUAD 05:02:20 Z

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:28 AM

Re: Models

CMC has been off too much,,in general,,so far the best models to date have been the UKMET and NOGAPS and would of said GFDL but I didnt like that 12z run...at least we know its Cancun,,,but does it slide thru it and off the N coast or go just south of there and weaken over the peninsula of the Yucitan before it re-emerges...thats what we want to know over the next 24hrs...too hard to tell right now. I havent seen the UKMET yet but should be out in next 20-30min.

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:36 AM

Drop

Something strange about that Eye dropsonde. It's missing a number of levels of data.
Not reporting the wind last 150meters either.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:36 AM

Re: Models

not sure what to think of new runs....

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

at first glance more spread out?

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:38 AM

Re: Models

New UKmet is out also and is about the same as the cmc and the GFS taking it over the keys.

So far you got 3 taking it to the keys and 1 near Tampa.GDFL out soon bet its going to be like the last 3.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:39 AM

Re: Drop

yeah saw that.... must of been a bad dropsonde...

UZNT13 KNHC 200525
XXAA 2005/ 99339 70845 11734 99899 28004 ///// 00/// ///// 92///
///// 85498 25405 70198 18200 88999 77999
31313 09608 80513
61616 AF308 0924A WILMA OB 07
62626 EYE 0516 AEV 20507 =
XXBB 20058 99339 70845 11734 00899 28004 11850 25405 22721 19617
33705 19400 44697 17400
21212 00899 /////
31313 09608 80513
61616 AF308 0924A WILMA OB 07
62626 EYE 0516 AEV 20507 =

where's the rest?
should look like this....
http://www.hurricanehunters.com/tempdrop.htm

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:49 AM

Re: Drop

I understand the levels above 850mb not being there...pressure too low.
But the lat/long for the 'splash' isn't there either.
Oh well. They got the data.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:54 AM

Re: Drop

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...18.1 N... 84.7 W. MOVEMENT
BETWEEN...WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...899 MB.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 06:00 AM

Re: Models

GFDL 0Z out and very similar to GFS.

Bloodstar

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 20 2005 06:00 AM

Re: Models

Quote:

New UKmet is out also and is about the same as the cmc and the GFS taking it over the keys.

So far you got 3 taking it to the keys and 1 near Tampa.GDFL out soon bet its going to be like the last 3.

I think the biggest thing to remember, it's not like there is a giant spread between most of the models at this point. you're seeing about a 100 mile spread total at 3 days out it appears. It won't take much for any of the models to shift north or south,

Right now I'm just taking a look at a long loop of the storm, It hasn't made the northward turn, but it does appear to be stair stepping now. I suspect Tomorrow night will be when we will know.

Want to know what I think is amusing to me? The storm has been under 900 mb for 24 hours, and we're not more amazed.

I think we're jaded. *grins*

-Mark

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 20 2005 06:02 AM

Re: Models

pretty cool water vapor shot.... looks up to date too.... (time stamp in pic)

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI00_wv.gif

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 20 2005 06:10 AM

Re: Models

Mark, I was wondering the same thing. This could be called a 'steady state' Hurricane.
And what happened to the ERC that was visible on satellite?
I saw two wind maximas on the Recon data. But the inner/ peak wind wasn't as high as I thought it would be.
121kts at Flight Level isn't too shabby for a storm that's been spinning wildly and wobbling for 24 hours, and on a 4 mile stem at that.
This would make her akin to a Long Track Tornado..right? Anothe steady state type cyclone.

Bloodstar

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 20 2005 06:20 AM

Re: Models

Quote:

GFDL 0Z out and very similar to GFS.

Could someone in the know about the current models please explain again which models are coupled together? I know the GFS and GFDL, one is run off the other, is the GFS the model that the other models use as a basis for their run? and what other model uses GFS (or GFDL)for the model run, (which could explain why certain models clump together more often that not).

Looking at the LBAR, the interesting thing about it is that it's initalized on a very recent plot of information (Other models may use less timely information). And I've noticed as it trends a bit north (north of tampa now....)So do others. also you have A98E and NOGAPS near and just south of Tampa. I'm still not sold on the southerly track. But I'll be happy if it does go south. Though I wouldn't want this to hit anywhere if possible.

No panic, just wary...
-Mark

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 20 2005 06:23 AM

Re: Models

current WV setup...
Tropical - 14 km Water Vapor (1 hr) - IR 3
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

close up: Tropical - GOES-12 4 km IR 4 Floater #1
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_ir4_float1_0.html

i think there maybe a slight shift in the 5am.... maybe a little slower and to the left in first 72hrs.... or they may just leave it alone....and wait on next runs...

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

oh by the way.... Max is the Man.... i think the Press Conference yesterday was an smart call... i watched him and gen. johnson go up to capitol hill a few weeks ago and go in front of the science committee and from what he said... i actually thought we would see something like that on the next system... a NHC press conference..... SO ALL NETWORKS can get it out LIVE..... meaning everyone will know what's going on... AT ALL LEVELS.... i think we may see more of this in the future... (starting next season)

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 06:24 AM

Re: Models

Ok this is my first forecast which I will change again tomorrow night cause I still dont know exactly what will happen between 36-60hrs......
What we have here is an agreement with the models that it will be very close to Cancun very late tomorrow night. Models all agree on this but some are spread south of cancun to just missing land. Right now looking at data from mid and upper level winds over the gulf and southern U.S shows heights droping over there as a trough moves out of the plains and into the ohio valley by Friday. Like the NHC says this will slide the ridge sw over the BOC and cause a weakness in the eastern gulf....this would suggest a slow movement NNW or N between 86-88W on Friday......In the meantime upper level support will dive rapidly south over the plains into the western and northern gulf Saturday into Sunday.. This is where the models spread out...... the GFS along with the GFDL has a slow movement saturday just NE of the Yucitan moving ahead of the trough ene towards NW Cuba........it feels the big trough and then rides up it near the Keys to near Miami and the Bahamas.....for now Im going to disregard this and here is why....the first trough will try to erode the current Gulf ridge and slide it sw and it should pick it up enough to move off the Yucitan slowly northward and maybe a bend NNE late Friday night into Saturday..... There is nothing to support right now that it will move slowly ene off Cancun towards Cuba...the westerlys will be too far N and wont come down until the main trough digs in later in the weekend..... The Ukmet solution has it just N of the GFS and drifts it ene then feeling the main digging trough to races ene towards Sw Florida and out near Miami give or take. Again possible but I dont see the early ene drift.....that leads to the NOGAPS...pretty reliable model....shows Wilma more meandering for 12-24hrs near where the Ukmet has her,, but instead of drifting her ene,,does N or NNE before feeling the trough and racing NE along the cold front.....Right now,, we dont know which will win out but we will know by Friday morning cause we will see where near Cancun Wilma comes inland or just skims the coast and how far off the northern coast it gets....if it does...then Im inline with the Nogaps..if it stays south of Cancun and makes landfall ,,then it could meander there for a day until the main trough picks it up,,,,but it will be on the tail end of the trough and get pushed more ENE towards NW Cuba,, near the keys and Miami and Nassua,,,,,another words,,, further N if gets past Cancun the more it will have a chance to go NE when the main trough comes in,,,further south,,it will be on the tail end of the trough.
So its going to be close on where she goes the next 24hrs,..then friday,,,lets see if it goes N of Cancun,,how much N or NNE it drifts before being picked up.......... Will update tomorrow night to see where this comes in by Cancun.

HanKFranK

(User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 06:30 AM

sequence

well i was thinking earlier today that wilma would start moving more nw by now, but it's still sliding along at around 290. big hurricane so it can 'mitch' its way westward if it wants, but if it responds in semi-normal fashion there ought to be some more northward component shortly. the sooner it starts responding to the falling heights to the north, the less of the yucatan it's going to intercept. much better for florida in the long run for the cozumel/cancun area to take the storm down a notch. a day long crossing would probably weaken wilma 2-3 categories... but i'm going to hold with the philosophy that any crossing will be brief and not diminish the storm below category 3 strength.
as it begins to zip northeast across the southeastern gulf, there ought to be steadily increasing shear. it will also be in a high relative vorticity region south of the upper trough setting up house over the great lakes, so baroclinic forces may start acting to maintain the hurricane early. expect a 2/3 landfall in southwest florida, probably in the fort myers area. it could easily be a 1 if the storm camps over the yucatan. a lot of the guidance is closer to naples, but i'm going to stay hardheaded and not shift my landfall zone. trimming the north side, though... so now it runs from sarasota to chokoloskee... with lee and charlotte counties in the middle. the hurricane's wind field has already expanded quite a bit, and should continue expanding as it begins to accelerate into the westerlies. i'd say the the entire lower third of florida could receive hurricane force gusts from the storm... with sustained hurricane winds cutting across the state along and just south of the eye path.
the globals are still split over the recurvature endgame, but a lot of the dynamic models are starting to see phasing. some of the gfdl cousins are also showing what the popular gfdl is only seeing every other run... a very rapid, day long run from east of florida to the coast of new england, with baroclinic deepening along the way. the newer nogaps even runs the storm nap of the coast from hatteras to long island. if the worst-case scenario unfolds, the real story from wilma will be what happens in the northeast... which is already in a bad hydrologic state. fortunately a lot of the leaves up there have fallen, but even if the hurricane were to pass a good distance offshore strong gradient winds will likely result in widespread wind damage. a direct hit will entail a large coastal surge, very destructive winds throughout the region, and extreme rainfall on top of the recent rains and flooding.
wilma has the potential to cap the hurricane season off in a very bad way for parts of the east coast. if i were on the florida peninsula, outer banks, or new england coastline, i'd get my hurricane contingency plan worked out, grab supplies, and discuss the potential with my neighbors. there are three to six days for the threatened regions to prepare.
HF 0630z20october

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 20 2005 06:40 AM

Re: sequence

Okay, You two. I just turned off the Weather Channel.

Those were High resolution forecasts from both of you. Did you conspire on the timing too?

I believe Toho posted this link earlier. If you use the area where gray meets green, ahead of the outflow as Wilma's boundary line. The models tracks add a third dimension.
I'm not saying she will follow this...as it's going to change in the next 48 hours, to some degree.
Just speculation on my part.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI00_wv.gif

Mike N

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 07:00 AM

Re: Models

Minimal poster, avid reader since discovering this site last year. Thanks to all the professionals and Hank's that volunteer their time, thoughts, knowledge and expertise.

Seems to me we might have a case similar to Rita in one way - stay with me. That is, you see the models clustered (for the most part) over Southern FL the last 2 days. It has been well documented that we won't know where Wilma is going until starts to have the easterly component after her stint of a N component. The models will give us an early indicator where that higher probability strike location will be as early as tomorrow after tomorrow night's 0z runs. Back to Rita - the models where clustered on Houston for a while and then models started to shift and if you caught on early enough and predicted a landfall on the models you'd been pretty darn close about 72 hrs out. I think a similar situation could occur with Wilma. Watch for the trends in the models. I could be off here but Houston is about 100-125 mi from where Rita made landfall. So at this point a Sarasota landfall is about as likely as a Key West landfall. I say anywhere from Hernando to the Keys should stay alert to say the least.

BTW - It kills me to watch the media (local mets) during these storms. Some hyped it last night, some tonight and vice versa. Being born and raised in Tampa, and those of you who haved lived here long enough can attest to what I'm about to say, we have cried wolf so many times that people around here are "numb" to hurricanes. The general consensus I get is that people around here think hurricanes are no big deal and we've been through more than a couple since my first memory of one - Elena 85' The only problem with that is Tampa hasn't been though a true hurricane since 1921 or 28 - forget when it hit. The so called hurricanes we (Tampa) went through last year we maybe classified officially rolling though but I can tell you from my house in NE Tampa we were lucky if we had a hurricane force gust and not many at that. The strongest was with Jeanne. Point is there is a huge difference between that and taking a direct hit from a Cat 3 storm. People around here and wherever it may hit for that matter will be shocked at the damage that occurs if indeed it makes landfall as a Cat 3. Happens every time.

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 07:05 AM

Re: Models

Mike your right.......thing is,,people are wary of them here in Tampa, but they just dont think it will come here. Infact I dont also until it actually happens...its like what I said last night in sports for cleveland,,people hope they win a championship,,,,but they know they wont win at the end....same here in Tampa,,,most will think,,Ahh it will pass south and we might get a couple bands,,,and we might, we wont know for 36 hrs.

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 20 2005 07:06 AM

Re: Models

18.1N/ 84.9W on the pressure center. NW outbound Max Flt level wind at 117-118kts.
Should have a new pressure shortly. If it changes?

URNT12 KNHC 200705
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/06:49:40Z
B. 18 deg 05 min N
084 deg 50 min W
C. 700 mb 2245 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 212 deg 112 kt
G. 126 deg 026 nm
H. 903 mb
I. 16 C/ 3051 m
J. 17 C/ 3040 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C04-40
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0924A WILMA OB 11
MAX FL WIND 121 KT SW QUAD 05:14:00 Z

Mike N

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 07:13 AM

Re: Models

Agreed. We've had many that were coming our way and/or direction that never hit. False sense of security is the best way to describe it.

Mike N

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 07:20 AM

Re: Models

Interesting to see the loops seem to have stopped and now it looks to be a constant stairstep with every frame - no loops. Probably due to the ongoing ERC.

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 20 2005 07:41 AM

Movement

Checking the last three Fixes.
19/21:39Z 17.7 N/ 83.7W
20/05:13Z 18.1N/ 84.8W

IN 7:34 Wilma moved :23min N and 1:09 W.
They are using dd mm format
That breaks down to 0.4N and 1.1W-roughly.

In other words no turn...Yet!

LadyStorm

(Weather Guru)

Thu Oct 20 2005 09:04 AM

Re: Movement

5 a.m. out. Looks like she has slowed down. Same path though. The NHC's predicted path has not changed much over the last day or so. I just hope she continues to weaken.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 09:14 AM

Re: Movement

Models have dropped farther south. I am hoping we will see a southward shift in the NHC projected path. I have to say that - I live in Naples!

Morgana

(Registered User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 09:19 AM

Re: Movement

Bending over to kiss my...oh nevermind. Lame attempt at humor. :P

Hey, I almost made it out of here. We've been trying to sell so we could move to our land in Ga. (where weather is almost non-existant). I'm on the South end of Tampa Bay sitting on the Manatee River which empties into Ye Good Old Gulf of Mexico.

It will be interesting to see if this old 1896 two-story collapses around us or what. I just retired from (police) dispatch a few months ago, so this will be the first 'cane season I haven't worked in awhile. It will be really weird riding this out as a citizen and not shift sleeping on a cold floor. I must admit I *will* miss that huge generator the station has!

I'm glad I found this forum because other forums I hang at just don't understand my interest.

OrlandoDan

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 09:33 AM

Re: Movement

I notice the overall signature on the following WV loop is becoming just slightly elongated North to South. Is this a sign of the gradual turn more to a northerly component?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 09:37 AM

Re: Movement

I see that too. Sounds reasonable, and I think I read somewhere this may indicate a direction change.

swimaway19

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Oct 20 2005 09:43 AM

Re: Movement

Is the A98 model a statistical model like the LBAR? They both seem to be outliers taking it right to Tampa

http://skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=24

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Oct 20 2005 09:58 AM

Re: Movement

You can really make out a well defined outer eyewall: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/ATL/24L.WILMA/tmi/tmi_85h/1degreeticks/thumb/Latest.html

(this image is more than 6 hours old, unfortunately)

Both WV and IR are showing a rather impressive seperation line appearing between the convection around the inner eye and the area inside the outer eye. It appears that the outer eye has established itself and that it is just a matter of time before the inner eye and associated convection vanishes.

bigbelly

(Registered User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 09:59 AM

Re: Movement

before commenting on the Models, make sure that you pay attention to the times. as only the GFDL and UKMET have the 5am data. A98 and LBAR were created at 00:39

OrlandoDan

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 10:02 AM

Re: Movement

Here is the models. The time date is in the legend at the top:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 20 2005 10:21 AM

Re: Movement

Looking at the water vapor loop right now... I see something kind of interesting. Depending upon where the new eye settles in when the ERC is completed, we could see WIlma go from a 2nm pinhole eye at its maxima yesterday, to a huge eye later today. The storm appears right now to have extremely cold cloud tops in the outer bands of a doughnut-like structure, with an inner rim, and then a doughnut hole inside that inner rim. As thge doughnut hole (deep convection where the eye used to be) collapses, we could see the new eye take over there, and encompass the entire area... which would then be followed by a contraction of the then-large eye. The cyclic rotation of the LLC within this "doughnut" structure continues even this morning.

What does not continue - what has never developed, in fact - is the northward movement. In fact, most of the models I find now show landfall over the Yucatan. I find that VERY unsettling, because it is a sign to me that the first trough may indeed miss Wilma, and a second trough may be required to push the storm out of the GOM. Where that second trough sets up and where it ultimately deposits Wilma, I just don't know. The models say south Florida, but I still don't have confidence in that much of a right hook.

MissBecky

(Weather Guru)

Thu Oct 20 2005 10:21 AM

Re: Changes

Quote:

Other than the Keys. Has anyone heard any additional evacuation plans from the counties?

Daniel the only other one I am aware of is Cape Coral here in Lee County. They have called for voluntary evacuations of low-lying neighborhoods and mobile homes.

Here is a link to our NBC station's website, with a list of evacuation information, cancellations, and closings, for many Southwest Florida counties

http://www.nbc-2.com/Wilma-Details.shtml

They also have emergency phone numbers listed, and all kinds of useful information for anyone in Southwest Florida.

KiminCanada

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 10:31 AM

Re: Changes

Do you all agree with the new 5 day cone....being up near Virginia on Tues now instead of Monday???

OrlandoDan

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 10:31 AM

Re: Changes

Very interesting that it has not made the northerly turn yet. This does not bode well for the Yucatan and Cozumel. Reeasoning on the track will undoubtedlu change today. What are the chances of a more northerly Florida landfall even later in the petiod than Monday?

Ron Basso

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 10:49 AM

Re: Changes

006Z Models from CSU. I noticed the 00Z suite of globals are indicating a stall and then a second trough picking up the storm. I may have to eat crow based on my thoughts yesterday. Pretty fluid situation though with the ERC and interaction with the westerlies. In wait and see mode but certianly looks as of now that extreme S FL may be hit hardest by this storm. There is one model (and it's not the LBAR!) that brings it through Tampa - the Navy's version of the GFDL (GFNL).

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 10:53 AM

Re: Changes

Interesting disco by the HPC this a.m. Worth a read:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 10:54 AM

Re: Changes

6z GFS now keeps her offshore the Yucatan, has her hit SW Florida near Naples and exits her just east of Lake Okeechobee near Stuart. I believe this is a slight shift north for the GFS. The key here is she's a bit slower, even moving offshore Florida. Also, the fact that it keeps her off the peninsula of the Yucatan could allow her to retain her strong structure. Avila alluded to her possibly not making landfall in his discussion ("heading toward the Yucatan.....for now"). Still pretty darned interesting. Cheers!!

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 20 2005 10:56 AM

Re: Changes

Quote:

Very interesting that it has not made the northerly turn yet. This does not bode well for the Yucatan and Cozumel. Reeasoning on the track will undoubtedlu change today. What are the chances of a more northerly Florida landfall even later in the petiod than Monday?

I'm more convinced than ever that any turn to the north won't happen until or very near landfall, or even after landfall. Looking at the overall pattern in the area, there are signs of a turn to the north I think, but they are over the BOC and the western Yucatan. This would go along with the GFNI's latest run mostly... and put Tampa in ground zero.

The cold cloud tops in the old eyewall are collapsing as I write this... unless something changes, new, 40nm eye should be formed by the 11am ET advisory, I think - which would fit in the 12-18 hour timeframe that an ERC should last. What's that mean? Cancun could experience a cat 5 hurricane.

flarrfan

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 11:11 AM

A forecast

I am a complete and total amateur and have never done this before, but colleagues in my office have heard me talk about the time I spend on this site and another site and frequently ask for my opinion on what will happen with a storm. Yesterday morning, I sent an e-mail to the office with my first forecast. I will send the following e-mail today:

Wilma forecast---10/20

No reason to change yesterday's forecast of Sunday Cat 2 landfall between Ft. Myers and Naples, based on a brush with the Yucatan, some slowing and weakening before the right turn, and increasing shear and cooler water on the path to Florida. Two IF's---If the entire center of circulation landfalls on the Yucatan, there could be even more weakening and slowing, allowing more time for the other weather patterns to push a Cat 1 further south toward the Keys on Monday. OTOH, if the storm makes a more substantial northward turn today and the center misses the Yucatan entirely, it could track farther north with less weakening before turning northeast and east. That could mean a Cat 3 landfall late Sunday/early Monday between Sarasota and Ft. Myers. More model divergence today than yesterday, due to lack of north turn so far and uncertainty about timing and Yucatan landfall effects, but will stick with the 10/19 prediction as still consistent with the midpoint of the more reliable models.

Ed G

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 11:21 AM

Re: A forecast

make darn sure to add to the note that you are only giving your own OPINION and that everyone should tune into the NHC for accuarte forecasts.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 11:22 AM

Re: Changes

Collier County called for voluntary evacs of those in low lying areas and mobile homes on Thursday. I believe I heard this morning that Sanibel had done the same. The Collier County Commission is meeting in emergency session at 3 this afternoon and I am sure they will declare a state of emergency and announce other plans at that time. Naples Daily News has an excellent site at www.naplesnews.com.

jlauderdal

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 11:37 AM

Re: Changes

Quote:

6z GFS now keeps her offshore the Yucatan, has her hit SW Florida near Naples and exits her just east of Lake Okeechobee near Stuart. I believe this is a slight shift north for the GFS. The key here is she's a bit slower, even moving offshore Florida. Also, the fact that it keeps her off the peninsula of the Yucatan could allow her to retain her strong structure. Avila alluded to her possibly not making landfall in his discussion ("heading toward the Yucatan.....for now"). Still pretty darned interesting. Cheers!!

I think we need to be consider the GFS of course but we have not seen real consistency for the last 18 hours so i think we need a two more runs of a consistent solution with regards to the american model, That said, i really like waht NHC has been doing since the wacky GFS run which is keep the ideathey ad with subtle changes. Very interesting day ahead with the gfs and gfdl. other models have not had such big differences.

Sheeper

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 11:42 AM

Re: Changes

From the Treasure Coast it is expected that Indian River County, the City of Vero Beach and St Lucie counties will declare local state of emergency sometime later today. Although the 0500 updates have us being impacted sunday as opposed to saturday. Stll subject to change of course!

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 11:47 AM

Re: Changes

6z GFDL now inching north slightly. Has it exit the east coast near 27.4N/79.5W. Not sure exactly where on the west coast it landfalls since I'm not familiar with the Lat/Long on the SW coast of florida.

Ed G

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 11:49 AM

Re: Changes

where are you finding the 6Z? Post link please!

thanks

stay dry with your feet firmly on the ground

e

charlottefl

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 11:51 AM

Re: Changes

Misread that post.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 11:53 AM

Re: Changes

GFDL is still pretty far south

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 20 2005 11:55 AM

Re: Movement

Latest recon shows pressure rising to 910 and concentric eyewalls at 7 and 35 nm, respectively - both CLOSED. (the "L" line specifically says "CLOSED WALLS" --- plural). I'm not sure I've seen them mention concentric eyewalls on line L before. They've mentioned them in the comments and on line M, though.
The 1115z IR clearly shows the outer eyewall becoming more impressive, and the only thing left for the inner eyewall is for the fat lady to sing. Cancun is going to get walloped if this thing doesn't turn very soon.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 11:56 AM

Re: Movement

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/ scroll to bottom.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 12:02 PM

Re: Changes

May be wrong but 27.4 is around Stuart isn't it? Wouldn't that be a north shift for this model compared to previous runs?

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 20 2005 12:14 PM

Re: Movement

The black (or gray if you insist

) is back. On the 1145z IR image... Wilma looks like a cake doughnut with the center not quite punched out yet. Extremely symmetrical, with the deepest convection (gray - and even a tiny spec of WHITE - on an IR IMAGE!!! - in the south semicircle). Yet the 8am advisory said the winds were down to 145. Maybe so, but they won't stay down much longer.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 12:17 PM

Re: Movement

Looks like she's already west of the first 5AM NHC forecast point. When will they throw in the towel on the northerly turn? Looks like she's going to plow right into the Yucatan.

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 12:23 PM

Re: Movement

How much of an effect will hitting the Yucatan have on the storm? I've heard everythng from break it up (which seems unlikely), to just around a Cat 1; maybe Cat 2 when and if it hits SW FL.

GuppieGrouper

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 12:25 PM

Re: Movement

Tampa Bay still appears to be in the cone of stupidity. Fellow forecasters, please continue to emphasize that the cone is really the total wind area and that the danger exists until the storm has passed completely out of the cone. People still tend to simplify a hit or miss and that is not any more true for hurricanes than it is for rain, over a region. Just because it rains 3 inches at my house and only one inch at your house does not mean that you do not get wet. That is my philosophical statement of caution to those who think they are safe from the dreaded direct hit.

flarrfan

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 12:39 PM

Re: A forecast

Quote:

make darn sure to add to the note that you are only giving your own OPINION and that everyone should tune into the NHC for accuarte forecasts.

While this is generally a valid point, I would note that there are only eight other people in my office, and they all know what I put expressly at the top of my post here...I am a complete and total amateur. The other point I want to make about relying on the NHC, while it is good advice, is that in practice people rely on TV mets and --- unfortunately --- the hype that the stations put on to promote their mets. The average viewer is unable to distinguish between a qualified met quoting the NHC, an anchorperson teasing the weather before a commercial with wildly oversimplified and sometimes inaccurate info, and an announcer in the commercial break between soaps hyping that station's coverage. Moreover, the average person with no or minimal computer literacy may have no idea how to cut out the middleman and go directly to the NHC for the best advice. Finally, I work in a government office that is getting regular e-mail updates from our agency's emergency managers with verbatim reports from NHC. I hope that reassures your concern about misleading people, because it doesn't happen with me, although I wish I could say the same for the news media coverage that most people do rely on (and another reason to salute the Mayfield news conferences as a way to get directly to the people, although questions like how concerned he is for the wildlife in the Everglades just reinforces my above point about the media).

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 12:42 PM

Re: Movement

Ok, I'm new to the NOGAPS model page on the navy site. However, if I loaded it up correctly it looks like the 06 run puts Wilma right through central Fl! HUH! I don't care for that. I hope I loaded it wrong.

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 12:44 PM

Re: Movement

All the models seem to be shifting north again. I think until or if there is interaction with the Yukatan (sp) it's a crap shoot.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 12:54 PM

Re: Movement

not really the gfdl and the gaps did but the others still below this time yesterday.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 12:54 PM

Re: Movement

u didnt
that is what the nogaps 06z run is showing and the 06 gfdl has shifted north again also

JulieTampa

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 12:55 PM

Re: Movement

If the concentric eyewalls are at 7 and 35, does that mean the 2nm one has dissolved, and there's 2 more to go? Or did the smallest one expand outward while the larger one started contracting? Were there possibly 3 eyewalls at one point? Just curious...

Julie

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 12:55 PM

Re: Movement

any model can be wrong or right for that matter but those two models
are 2 of the most reliable at least this year

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 20 2005 01:13 PM

Re: Movement

Good morning all.

I am still totally blown away by Wilma. She has managed to keep to an amazingly low pressure and amazingly good organziation and symmetry, during an ERC, and is completing it much more rapidly than I expected.

From one extreme to the other LOL...we had the 2nm-wide eye, so why not now try a 40nm-wide one?

At buoy 42056 waves are now up to 25 ft and will get higher as Wilma passes by today.

Even though she is not under the warmest water (to the east of her), she will be skirting it if she follows the forecast track, so I believe she'll still be able to spin up rapidly today and easily get back to a Cat 5 before the Yucatan starts impacting her, especially if she starts the northward turn early today.

This is because even though she is technically weakening for the moment in terms of pressure and windspeed, in a sense she is not weakening, because her structure is improving with every sat image, and convection is regularly expanding and building a symmetric strong hurricane-force windfield. This time she is building a more typical windfield where strong hurricane-force winds will extend outward for most of the main circulation. The most optimistic strengthening indicates she's going to become a very strong donut; however there are unanticipated things that can throw a wrench in reorganization. Once the eyewall clears out, given her track record with pressure, I would not even be surprised to see a very low pressure again towards evening.

But this final leg of the trek through the NW Caribbean will be her last hurrah with impressive pressures and windspeeds. If she follows the forecast models and goes into the GOM towards FL, she'll brush the loop current and may be able to maintain Cat 4 status while north of western Cuba, but that will probably be it. But, since every hurricane has its own characteristics, like a personality, consider that Wilma has been very tenacious with hanging onto low pressures (again, I'm still in amazement), so we can expect low pressures (with windspeeds continuing to lag behind the low pressure) and a very solid core, to remain even during the trip over the GOM. She may even be able to maintain higher winds than expected by once again reducing the size of the eyewall while over the GOM. Whatever it is about the unique characteristics of each hurricane, I have come to believe that if we see a specific behavior with one particular hurricane then there is more of a likelyhood of that behavior being repeated before landfall.

One final note -- since we are not not seeing the oscillating eyewall I tend to agree with the previously-posted idea that the very strong inner eyewall was rotating around the outer wind maximum (that has become the 40-mile-wide eyewall today), and the "inertia" was resulting in the looping movement. Because there was such a dramatic difference between the strength of the very small core compared with the remaining windfield, which was for the most part 80kts and lower, the movement was amplified.

Ed G

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 01:13 PM

Re: Movement

where are you guys finding the 06z nogaps?

link please!

sara33

(Weather Guru)

Thu Oct 20 2005 01:16 PM

Re: Movement

Sorry,
A little off topic, but do we have another TD behind Wilma 55W APROX??? Looks like it to me.
Just had to post

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 01:17 PM

Re: Movement

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/login.do?username=guest

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 01:19 PM

Re: Movement

Margie, I just checked that buoy and it's not showing wave heights anymore. What does that mean?

As far as the NOGAPS link it was posted yesterday by a member. The link is: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/logout.do?requestId=1126908274163.1786.1

You have to click Public Charts. Then pick the tropical atlantic map. from there you can play with the model runs.

Ron Basso

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 01:23 PM

Re: Movement

Here's the latest NOGAPs animated run - It looks to be 00Z. Can't seem to find 06Z. This looks very ominous for Tampa Bay.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wx...;dtg=2005102000

Tracey

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 01:23 PM

Re: Movement

How much North?

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 01:24 PM

Re: Movement

for the GFDL new run to verify it would have to be going NW about now which as of this point its not.

Jonathan Franklin

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 01:26 PM

What is meant by extra-tropical characteristics?

I have a question, in this morning's NHC discussion section, in the last paragraph reference is made:

WILMA SHOULD BEGIN TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS

What do they mean by extra-tropical characteristics? And what is the impact or concern, if any, for those of us in South Florida?

Thanks in advance.

stormchazer

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 01:30 PM

Re: What is meant by extra-tropical characteristics?

They generally mean that will develop a more Cold-Core with a broader wind-field structure. They are refering to Wilma after it exits the East-Coast of Florida. One of our more knowledgeable folk on here can likely explain it better.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 01:32 PM

06Z NOGAPS

The 06Z NOGAPS is here

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/chart.do?loop=true&requestId=1129744754535.1195.3

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 20 2005 01:35 PM

Re: Movement

Lake Toho pointed out the the NOGAPS has been consistent with a "south of Tampa" hit for the last 3 days. If the GFS and GFDL are shifting further north...and yes, Stuart would be further north) then I think we need to pay attention. I believe that those are the 3 most reliable models. I think I remember a storm last year (or it could have been this year) where the outlier was actually the CORRECT model; so it's happened before.
Look at it this way: consistency is the key. We have one (which has been called the outlier) model that has been consistent for 3 days, maybe 4 now. The other two were in line until a fluke yesterday, but the runs are now coming into line with a further north movement...not sure if they have been doing that for just one run or two.
We have seen too many times where the track has shifted a little left, then a little right, then back again to trust any forecasted path right now. That's why we're in a "cone".
If I remember correctly, Ivan was supposed to hit Jamaica, but missed it; hit Cuba but went below it, we all know what happened. And, as alluded to by a prior poster, look at what happened with Rita...it went from hitting Mexico to making landfall in Port Arthur, Texas.
To rule out any portion of the state is ridiculous. Right *now*, this very minute, some areas are in more danger than others. But we are 3 days out and to say that any other areas in FL can "breath a sigh of relief" is not only silly, it's downright irresponsible.
IMHO, I think that it will be a very close call for Cancun and Cozumel, but I don't think it's going to plow into the Yucatan Peninsula. I think it will graze it and then move north, then NE. I don't see a scenario which would have it making a very sharp right hand turn (ENE). I'm not sure that is possible with a storm as large as Wilma.
Please keep in mind, that the above statement is only my opinion, not a forecast.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 20 2005 01:35 PM

Re: Movement

Beyond my knowledge to say why this is sometimes missing in the summary information, but look further down and you'll see there was another entry with wave heights missing in the summary info.

However it is still observing the wave height if you look at the current readings at the top, and if you page down to the bottom, to the detailed wave summary, where you'll notice that the waves have started to become steep. Wait until they become very steep. The sea conditions tha these buoys tell us about can be really amazing to comptemplate. You should have seen what the buoy south of Dauphin Island recorded last year for Ivan - really large, steep waves.

I wasn't tracking hurricanes then but I was visiting my cousin at the Jersey Shore when I saw on the news a strong hurricane was south of the MS coast. I was able to get a couple hours on the computers at the local library and get on the internet to search for and relay some information to my brother during the evening she made landfall. They had some trouble getting me to leave at 9pm! I vividly remember finding the NHC and NOAA sites and looking at the Mobile radar image, wondering when in the sam hill Ivan was going to make that bend to the right that they were talking about, and spare MS from destruction. The next morning I went back and checked the buoy info. Wow it was impressive. There was only one newspaper that I knew of that picked up on the info as well and noted the one exceptionally large (average) wave height of over 50 feet, which I also noted in an email to my brother:

"The buoy south of Dauphin stopped measuring waves from 3pm to 10pm...I think the waves were too extreme to measure...but came online after that and measured average wave height of 52.5 ft at 7pm"

Tracey

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 01:42 PM

Re: 06Z NOGAPS

Does anyone have a site that shows graphic which includes the nogaps model?

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 01:43 PM

Re: Movement

Heya Colleen
I dont know if this is what you were thinking or not but the GFDL was the outlier on katrina and rita and turned out to be right. I agree with you that those three are the most reliable this year at least. I am watching the gfdl and nogaps with interest
peace

Ed G

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 01:47 PM

Re: 06Z NOGAPS

Tracey, check out this site....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

doesn't update very frequently

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 01:51 PM

Wilma

Boy, she really seems to be stretching north/south now. Has anyone looked recently? Is it just me or is she elongating? Steve Lyons has always said that's a sign of a change of direction. I hate it for the Yuc but it would be so much better for FL is she never turned.

Fletch

(Weather Guru)

Thu Oct 20 2005 01:55 PM

Re: Wilma

Quote:

Boy, she really seems to be stretching north/south now. Has anyone looked recently? Is it just me or is she elongating? Steve Lyons has always said that's a sign of a change of direction. I hate it for the Yuc but it would be so much better for FL is she never turned.

I've been watching that as well the past few hours. Also seems to be slowing somewhat. It may start to meander for the next few hours before starting the NW movement.

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 20 2005 01:57 PM

Re: Movement

Yes, those were the storms I was thinking of...thanks for backing that up! My brain is addled at this point, LOL.
Also...is it me or does it appear that the storm is beginning to *maybe* move more towards the NW? Or is that just because a whole loop has not been finished?
Thanks Pam!

Tazmanian93

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 01:58 PM

Re: Wilma

Yep, starting to look like an egg

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Oct 20 2005 01:58 PM

Re: Movement

Good morning:

The mystery should be over today, and before the 5p.m. we should know if the NHC track will hold or some more yet unforeseen resullt such as those suggesting meandering south of Cuba will emerge.
the visual evidence suggests the NHC guidance will prevail, in my opinion. What I see is the high in the western GOM IS eroding tothe SW. On the WV you can see area of convergence with the strom and the moisture from the storm beginning to effect a SW-NE flow west of 90W. The short wave energy with the low over the Central U.S. is emerging off the Texas Gulf Coast from the NW and it looks like a steering mechanism to the NE will emerge from this later say in about 18-24 hrs. The amplitude of this would seem to be consistent with NOGAPS 6Z...
This of course is not at all what the experts are thinking, which continues to be a Southwest Florida solution.

THROWIN

(Registered User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 02:00 PM

Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest

Here is a web cam from my resort in Cancun (Royal Sands). You can watch Wilma approach until power goes out.

http://www.royalresorts.com/webcam.stm

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 20 2005 02:04 PM

Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest

Great webcams...already seeing the gusty winds. Thanks and good luck!

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 02:06 PM

Re: Movement

Can someone answer this, if she did start that dreaded turn and just clipped the Yuc does it change the timing at all? Is the NHC confident with their sun/mon Florida landfall? I'm confused on whether or not yesterdays crazy GFDL runs influenced the timing on the NHC's part. It worries me especially if she goes into the Naples area. That's a difficult evac city.

Tracey

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 02:06 PM

Re: 06Z NOGAPS

thanks for the site. Sure hope Nogaps isn't correct. Nobody seems to talk about the nogaps models this year, why, do you know?

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 20 2005 02:07 PM

Re: 06Z NOGAPS

Thanks for that link, Ed! I had that a while ago and lost it! It does show that the GFDL and GFS have shift ever so slightly northward.
Will be interesting to see the 11 am update...or will it?

(Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 20 2005 02:07 PM

Re: Wilma

I agree,I think she is starting the more northern movement.Well,we have got another day to prepare because of the slow down,no excuses not to be prepared for this one.

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 20 2005 02:11 PM

Re: Movement

Doug...you have me a little confused, LOL...are you saying that the NHC's track will verify OR the NOGAPS? Or somewhere in between?
I think I understand what you are saying, but I just want to be positive.
Thanks, my friend!
Colleen

Tazmanian93

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 02:16 PM

Re: Movement

Gonna be a tough turn without significant interaction w/ land at this point, been riding 18 for a while now.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2005_TWENTY-FOUR/webManager/last24hrs.gif

Rasvar

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 02:17 PM

Re: Movement

I suspect that very little will change on the 11:00am advisory forecast track wise. If I recall, the track was already to the left of guidence. Any north move would only move the models closer to the track. This is a sit and stayer. Better to just levae it where it is until there is a more definate sign that it needs to change.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 02:19 PM

Re: Wilma

Looks to me like she's making a beeline for the next NHC forcast mark. Kudos to NHC. They really know their stuff. I hope the local mets are watching.

(Weather Guru)

Thu Oct 20 2005 02:22 PM

Re: Wilma

Wilma seems to have slowed a bit, but that's often hard to tell from watching a few satellite frames. The sharper NW turn that had been forecasted, and I honestly was expecting to happen, still hasn't occured. Looking at the WV loops I think Wilma makes it even a bit further west before she starts on a true NW heading. The 1st trough pushing through is a bit north than where I thought it would be, and it's still a bit out to the west. Even if Wilma slows down I think she continues a movement a little more west than north. In the short term I think this means she comes in contact with the Yucatan Peninsula further south than what the NHC is forecasting right now. For 36hrs from about 8am/18th to 8pm/19th she tracked just about twice as far west as she did north. Over the last 12hrs she's moved even further west than that.

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Oct 20 2005 02:22 PM

Re: Movement

Im' sticking with the experts, but I can see why the NOGAPS pulls this north...

Tazmanian93

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 02:24 PM

Re: Wilma

Def has slowed, check out the link I sent to Colleen, def see a more south contact w/ Yuc

LSUFAN

(Registered User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 02:24 PM

Re: Wilma

Is it safe to say that Louisiana is completely out of any possible paths for Wilma?

DrewC

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 02:24 PM

Re: 06Z NOGAPS

Charley was forecast for Tampa, and went to Punta Gorda instead. Wouldn't it be strangely ironic if Wilma did the inverse of Charley?

(Nobody get in a tissy. I am NOT wishcasting or seeing anything different from anyone else, I am just trying to keep it a little more "lite" until the 3 day cone arrives in Florida. After losing a 20'x60' pole barn, 2 sheds, 8 trees, and 11 days without power last year, I am more than ready to get serious when it is necessary.)

Oh, and on the lack of power note, at least the highs next week are forecast to be in the very low 80s, and the possible lack of A/C this year won't be as bad as last year. (The silver lining on the tornado cloud.)

MikeC

(Admin)

Thu Oct 20 2005 02:29 PM

Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest

Quote:

Here is a web cam from my resort in Cancun (Royal Sands). You can watch Wilma approach until power goes out.

http://www.royalresorts.com/webcam.stm

Thanks, I'm now recording the Royal Sands Cam here as well. I'll up the rate it records when the storm gets closer.

doctormegreen

(Registered User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 02:31 PM

Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest

Thank you so much for this link. It's amazing to watch "long distance" as the storm approaches!

Suzanne

TinaB

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 02:36 PM

Re: 06Z NOGAPS

Quote:

Charley was forecast for Tampa, and went to Punta Gorda instead. Wouldn't it be strangely ironic if Wilma did the inverse of Charley?

I live in Tampa...and I've wondered the same thing myself. They keep saying it's only a matter of time before Tampa takes a direct hit. I was hoping that it would be AFTER I closed on the house I just sold and moved out, but it looks like I might not get that wish. Thankfully I don't live near the water, but it's the wind I worry about.

lawgator

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 02:40 PM

Re: Wilma

Quote:

I agree,I think she is starting the more northern movement.Well,we have got another day to prepare because of the slow down,no excuses not to be prepared for this one.

Where is the northward movement? I am watching the GOES IR loop and she still looks 280-290 to me. In fact, if she maintained that course for another 36-48 hours, seems like the eye would barely get back out over water on the other side of the YP, if at all. I know the NHC predicts the start of a more NW, then N, movement, but so far I don't think it has materialized.

Its been interesting reading the posts on here as to what it means if the storm stays further west and therefore south of the forecast track once (and actually "if") the weakness and then trough picks it up. Those focusing on the westward component seem to conclude that it means that the storm will tend to the left side of the forecast track once it begins a run at Florida, therefore resulting in a course more north, i.e. Tampa. Those noting that the western course also means the storm would be further south than forecast once it gets picked up, means it would track on the right side of the cone, possibly the Keys area.

Who is right?

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 02:41 PM

Re: Wilma

12Z NOGAPS (only runs 72 hours out) thinks your right also. It looks to have it plow right into the Yuc with a much more easterly exit then before. It's getting interesting now. One minute I think Fl is going to get hit hard then the next minute there's hope!

THROWIN

(Registered User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 02:41 PM

Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest

You are welcome.
I am due to vacation there in a couple months (hopefully)

. It pains me to see this live!

Genesis

(Weather Guru)

Thu Oct 20 2005 02:49 PM

Re: Wilma

I still see the scenario that I posited the other day unfolding, just a day delayed (heh, its the weather!)

The WV imagery clearly shows the erosion of the ridge, and the low that was over Colorado is now moving somewhat SOUTH of east. This is a change from yesterday, when there were models progging a miss by the trough pickup and that first low tracking up near Ohio - that clearly is not happening.

It looks like my original scenario is good - the original impulse gets near the gulf; the trough has more of an E/W component, then the second impulse comes down and "bends" it to a more N/S axis, picking up the storm.

I'd be wary, as I said before, anywhere from the Keys to the Tampa area or perhaps a bit north of there. Until the connection is made a good prognostication of exactly where she's going won't be able to be made, which is reflected in the size of the cone currently. Given the WV imagery and pattern evolution I do think most of the models are too far south - the cone looks good, but the "black line" within it is, IMHO, biased too far southward given the evolving pattern.

It is possible that BOTH that and a Yucatan hit happens too. The storm could hit the Cancun/Cozumel area and "bounce off" - that would be diasterous for them, although it might be better for Florida, since the interaction would tend to take some of the steam out of this beast......

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 02:52 PM

Max Mayfield Live

Hi not sure if any of you are interested but at 1130 am this morning Max Mayfield is taking questions live according to wwwtampabays10.com

http://tampabay10.com/news/news.aspx?storyid=20214

there is also going to be live streaming video....
Also Gov Bush is scheduled to make a appearance at 1pm...
They are having a meeting at 1115am for the plans of evacuations for Hillsborough and Pinellas county.

Thought id let everyone know....take care and stay safe and keep us updated you all are doing a wonderful job....

Becky

rmcinorlando

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 02:56 PM

Re: Wilma

Genesis, I definitely see where you are coming from. I actually thought you were pretty accurate in your prognosis yesterday so it's interesting to see it come to pass. I think that by the 5:00 discussion (if not before) the NHC track will move north.

Marknole

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Oct 20 2005 02:57 PM

Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest

In the other forum (C'mon, make those landfall predictions!), a post was made that referenced the FSU Superensemble model. It seemed to indicate an (ironic) rapid weakening (interaction w/ Yucatan land mass?) and loss of tropical characteristics.

Has anyone seen or heard this prediction? It seems logical based on the beeline towards Mexico and the NHC trend towards slowing down the system overall...

KiminCanada

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:00 PM

Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest

Can anyone tell me if there is a new cone out??? I only can find the 4AM??

Thanks

blue flash

(Registered User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:01 PM

Re: into the crystal ball

Looks like a hint of a northward bias on the last frame or two.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:05 PM

Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest

Here ya go:

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_5day.html

garrison

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:06 PM

Re: into the crystal ball

She would have to go almost due N from here to miss the Yucatan (anything to the right of 350).

Genesis

(Weather Guru)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:12 PM

Re: into the crystal ball

Quote:

She would have to go almost due N from here to miss the Yucatan (anything to the right of 350).

Clipping the edge of the Yucatan is pretty much a given right now, which is horribly bad for them, and probably good for us due to the interaction with land. Mitch did an incredible amount of damage to both property and life; this could be on that order or perhaps even worse. It is definitely not a good time to be in the resort areas of the peninsula.....

However, that does not mean that the recurvature won't happen - it just changes the shape of the parabola somewhat. Exactly how remains to be seen. I don't expect any significant shift in the track until the 12z models finish, which will happen sometime in the next few hours. We should see an update then in terms of the pattern.

I still think the "big day" in terms of figuring out exactly where this beast is going to head will come tomorrow, in that by then the upper level steering flow should be well-enough established to take a much better guess at the angle of approach. However, this is likely to remain a very dangerous situation in that due to the angle of approach to the coast small errors in that angle will lead to relatively large errors in the actual landfall point, as occurred with Charlie last year.

In addition, tomorrow is likely to be a very bad day for Mexico.... pray for those who can't get out....

CarolinaGurl

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:12 PM

Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest

New Maps are out at the NHC

(Weather Guru)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:18 PM

Re: Wilma

Checking out the current coordinates, and the 11am track, even if Wilma moved almost due NW she looks to come in a bit south of the current Yucatan "graze". I think she still moves more west than north, and comes ashore on that peninsula a decent distance south of that. Per her 11am coordinates she's moved .1deg north and .3deg west(since 8am). This follows the most recent trend of an almost 3-to-1 west versus north movement.

trinibaje

(Weather Guru)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:22 PM

Re: Wilma

Someone ask the question above but it was not answered.. (or at least i didn't see the anwer) so i will ask it in my own words and pardon my ignorance if the answer is very obvious to those who have the clinical eye... but

Why is there a shift to the north or at least by many on this board for a predicition to a shift to the north when Wilma has not made her northward turn as yet? In my ignorant mind the more west she goes, the more south the forecast should bewhen the NE turn is made. What am I missing?

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:25 PM

NWS MLB

NWS MLB is highlighting a possible threat to central florida in their HWO.

HURRICANE WILMA IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON
SATURDAY THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN...OR POSSIBLY
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS
CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.

PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE PREPAREDNESS
ACTIONS SHOULD WILMA POSE A DIRECT THREAT TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
AREA

FireAng85

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:30 PM

Re: NWS MLB

East Central Florida? Not meaning to be a smart ass but did they honestly say EAST Central Florida?

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:30 PM

Re: Wilma

They are looking at the 6z runs showing a slight more N movement once it gets into the gulf..plus thinking further west now means the turn will be further N then....
My thinking is still the same,,,,, 1 it doesnt stall over the Yucitan,,makes it alittle N of there and moves NE towards Sarasota......or it does stall and is far enough south that is gets the tail end of the trough and moves E or ENE across N coast of Cuba and brushing the Keys and Miami and towards Nassau.

Its 1 of those 2 things,,and we will know watching what happens now thru Saturday.

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:31 PM

Re: Wilma

This new track having the storm interact with the Yucatan pennisula is VERY good news for Florida. We may be looking at a strong Cat 1/Cat 2 storm now at landfall, which will be significantly weaker than forecasted. Or it could possibly even stall out on the Yucatan and then we would just be looking at a rain event by the time the trough accerelates it towards the pennisula.

Based on the latest IR imagery, Wilma is still heading in a general West-Northwest direction and I believe she will continue on this motion for the next 6-12 hours. This will have her making landfall just south of Cozumel, Mexico. I believe she will spend more time in the Yucatan pennisula (she won't just brush it) and I would not be surprised if the NHC shifts the track farther to the left, where Wilma will cut across much of the eastern half of the pennisula. As I look at the imagery, I see no northerly component or northwestern turn in her motion. In fact she jogs a little more to the west in the last few frames. This is turning out to be a good scenario for Florida, but a horrid one for Mexico and the residents of the Yucatan. They are looking at a strong Cat 4/5 landfall in the next 12-24 hours.

If this scenario verifies, Wilma will make landfall a little further to the north on pennisula (I don't believe the turn will be that sharp, more of a North-Northeastward motion), but what kind of storm will she be at that time? It's very possible she will be a minimal Category 1 or even a Tropical Storm after interacting with the Yucatan.

Elaine H

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:35 PM

Re: Wilma

There appears to be a rapidly developing high over Georgia and North Florida this morning. What impact will have over the weekend...does anyone have an opinion. I am looking for the link to post.

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:36 PM

Re: Wilma

Fire......they are saying Eastern Florida cause its out of the Melbourne NWS for their area.

Also the NHC will adjust their tracks via what the models say,,especially always the GFDL unless that is a outliner model at that time.

trinibaje

(Weather Guru)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:38 PM

Re: Wilma

Quote:

They are looking at the 6z runs showing a slight more N movement once it gets into the gulf..plus thinking further west now means the turn will be further N then....
My thinking is still the same,,,,, 1 it doesnt stall over the Yucitan,,makes it alittle N of there and moves NE towards Sarasota......or it does stall and is far enough south that is gets the tail end of the trough and moves E or ENE across N coast of Cuba and brushing the Keys and Miami and towards Nassau.

Its 1 of those 2 things,,and we will know watching what happens now thru Saturday.

Thanks Scott... my guts (which is not a very scientific method) tells me your scenerio 2 is what we will be talking about tomorrow

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:39 PM

Re: Wilma

I am not completely sold on the "inland over the Yucatan" solution yet, and a brush is still possible. The ridge is now weakening in the GOM, and the low coming in from the west is accelerating that process, so with its slow movement we shall see. It would be great news for Florida if it does make landfall there, since its inner core may be disrupted to a point that it won't be able to recover before making landfall on the SW coast of Florida, and could get shredded apart in the westerlies. But its still TBD at this point. Let's see what the 12z shows with the new model data. Let's hope it isn't like yesterday's though. Cheers!!

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:39 PM

Re: Wilma

Is that the new eye forming at the tail end of the loop?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

If so, then it might pull her more west.

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:39 PM

Re: Wilma

There is a ridge there but will move quickly east near Bermuda in 36 hrs as that shortwave moves into the Ohio Valley and SE US Friday.

royener

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:42 PM

Re: Wilma

Just been checking the storm history co ordinates and they show the storm as having moved 0.8deg North and 6.7deg west since its inception 5 days ago, this is historical data and should be correct, this movement can hardly be considered as west north west, it is just a couple of points north of west. at no point in its history has it shown any inclination to move north, I would think that it will hit into the Yucatan before making any significant shift. scource is wunderground storm history

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:42 PM

Re: Wilma

This is consistent with the 6Z NOGAPS Which had the storm off the central West Coast in 96 (now 90) hrs...Monday! The 12Z NOGAPS does not define beyond 72 hrs but has the center off the Yucatan coast about 50 mile south of the 6Z run arguably only further delaying the exit...
Bastardi today argues the disruption to the storm may be to the core and suggests the interference with the core may never fully recover because of the interference from the trough..I.E. a more boraclinically oriented system...still a hurricane but no killer center...All this is very interesting and certainly not contemplated until late yesterday..

MadDog

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:45 PM

Re: Wilma

If someone has caught the Max Mayfield news briefing, please share it with us. My live stream failed so I didn't hear what was said.

D3m3NT3DVoRT3X

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:48 PM

Re: Wilma

i feel ya on the stream cutting out mine did the same .. went from max to bob barker back to max then it failed ...lol

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:49 PM

Re: Wilma

unfortunately mine isnt working eithe rand its not on tv....it was on cnn tho til they had a breaking news report about a murder in san fran....

StormHound

(Weather Guru)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:50 PM

Re: NWS MLB

Quote:

East Central Florida? Not meaning to be a smart ass but did they honestly say EAST Central Florida?

That is the Melbourne office, which has responsibility for East Central Florida. They typically comment on the relavence of weather in their particular zone of responsiblity. They are not trying to imply their won't be impacts elsewhere.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:52 PM

Re: Wilma

Max is still speaking on the ABC affiliate here in Tampa Bay. He said that interaction with the Yucatan will help to weaken it somewhat, but said it would probably still be a Cat 3 in the Gulf. Someone asked if there was any chance it would miss FL. He said no, none of the models show it missing the peninsula. He also said we need to watch closely after it begins the turn, because some models accelerate it much more than others. He doesn't want people to get complacent since it's going to slow right now because once is makes the turn, it may move very quickly. Seems to be the main point of the news conference was to tell people to keep their guard up.

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:52 PM

Re: Wilma

This would all me fascinating if my house didn't have a bulls eye on it.

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:54 PM

Re: Wilma

People in Tampa dont really think they are going to get hit....plain and simple....I dont even think its going to hit here unless its 6hrs away..Its been so long since Tampas been hit directly that people think it will just brush us or miss us completly. Some day yeah.... but until it does, we wont expect it.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:55 PM

Re: Wilma

He also just added another comment. He said that right now they think it might hit just south of Port Charlotte, and specifically stated that they are concerned about people still in FEMA trailers, etc, in that area. He also said he's having his wife put up their shutters either today or tomorrow. He reiterated that the storm is so large, the whole bottom half of FL is probably going to feel the effects.

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:56 PM

Re: Wilma

The storm is large but very small in hurricane force winds,,outward only 25 miles from the center.

raw

(Registered User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:57 PM

Re: Wilma

The High in the GOM appears to be fading and the Atlantic high appears to be building to the West.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm3.html

What is the chance of Wilma riding around the ridge towards the troph actually picking up forward motion and heading into the Pan Handle or maybe even West God forbid. Wilma appears to be going more West than WNW to me. Just something I saw as a Possibility especially since Katrina played out the same way.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:58 PM

Re: Wilma

but no one can let their guard down just yet for the simple fact of what charley did last year....what if it does a reversal as someone previously posted....then tampa bay would be SOL...and im in tampa bay area and im not being a fool im gettin ready....

superfly

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:59 PM

Re: Wilma

Quote:

The storm is large but very small in hurricane force winds,,outward only 25 miles from the center.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 260 MILES...415 KM.

Cindi

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:59 PM

Re: Wilma

All I know, is that the "cone of uncertainty" is inching closer to the Panhandle...

I am ready for hurricane season to be OVER!

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 03:59 PM

Re: Wilma

The met on ABC just showed SST around here, and the lowest area was 83 degrees. Sounds like plenty of heat to feed Wilma once it gets in this area. We'll just have to hope the shear from the trough gets her.

JoeF

(Registered User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:00 PM

Re: Wilma

scottsvb,

The latest shows Hurricane Force winds extending 90 miles out from the center.

DrewC

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:00 PM

Re: Wilma

Although the close-up floater satelite images don't seem to show any real track change to the north yet, the wider ranged GOM images appear to be showing slightly more northerly outflow over the last couple hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:01 PM

Re: Wilma

You are watching this with a trained eye...Can't rule out anything until the amplitude of the turn is actually measured and that won't be known until it happens..However things in the Wsrtern GOM southern pplains and Mexico are beginning to tell a story...that is what i would hope some of our experst can enlighten us on. I interpret what I see with an untrained eye, but I don't think NNE off the Yucatan coast in about 36 hours is out of the question.

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:01 PM

Re: Wilma

Quote:

The storm is large but very small in hurricane force winds,,outward only 25 miles from the center.

Latest update says they extend 90 miles out now:

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 260 MILES...415 KM.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:02 PM

Re: Wilma

Quote:

The storm is large but very small in hurricane force winds,,outward only 25 miles from the center.

11am says hurricane force winds extend 90 miles from the center. Also, my understanding was that once it enters the GOM they expect the windfield to expand.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:02 PM

Re: Wilma

I think Scott was referring to what she will be like after the Yuc takes out the punch!

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:03 PM

Re: Wilma

Always be ready flamommy..... Raw... it wont go to the Panhandle or anywhere west of that...you can see the ridge is gone from 20N and about 88W...Look at the cirus deck having a hard time making it to 90W..shows you the ridge is broken as heights continue to drop....a drift to the NNW should happen tonight into Friday until the main trough digs in over the weekend,,, but again, will it stall or dift N into the Gulf N of the Yucitan. I do feel it will come onshore near or south of Cancun late tonight or tomorrow morning.

CDMOrlando

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:03 PM

Re: Wilma

The wind field has been expanding.
11:00 AM forcaste adv.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 915 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 75SE 45SW 75NW.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:03 PM

Re: Wilma

max mayfield in his appearance said that anyone from Tampa Bay to the Keys needs to be prepared and ALERT....he really couldnt express that enough

engicedave

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:03 PM

Re: Wilma

Quote:

The storm is large but very small in hurricane force winds,,outward only 25 miles from the center.

Same here, I'm in Boynton

TinaB

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:04 PM

Re: Wilma

Quote:

but no one can let their guard down just yet for the simple fact of what charley did last year....what if it does a reversal as someone previously posted....then tampa bay would be SOL...and im in tampa bay area and im not being a fool im gettin ready....

ditto! Tampa is just too complacent at times...one of these days...POW! Maybe not this time, but sometime. (don't we say that everytime though?)

Hootowl

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:06 PM

Re: Wilma

Not meaning to start anything - I had to go look again to see if I read it right.

clip from the 11:00am disco
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 260 MILES...415 KM

Note - last section HF out 90 Miles TS out 260 Miles

oops - too slow. Mods please delete this post. thanks

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:08 PM

Re: Wilma

yea and my husband and mother in law are one of those people....they are so addament that its not going to hit us and this being my 2nd hurricane season in florida im not ready to just sit at home with them and my 2 yr old daughter....no way....all i knwo is im not taking any chances and i pray that wilma goes elsewhere.....

Brad in Miami

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:10 PM

Re: Wilma

The problem with that analysis, Royener, is that you're merely looking at 2 points without seeing how it got from the first point to the second. The storm's overall movement the first 3 days (from 10/15 at 5 pm to 10/18 at 5pm) was 1.9 degrees SOUTH and 1.2 degrees west. In the 42 hours since then, however, the storm has moved 2.7 degrees NORTH and 5.5 degrees west. So although the first 3 days there was no northward movement, there has been a northward component the past 42 hours.

Because the post I'm responding to is now so far back, here is Royener's post:

"Just been checking the storm history co ordinates and they show the storm as having moved 0.8deg North and 6.7deg west since its inception 5 days ago, this is historical data and should be correct, this movement can hardly be considered as west north west, it is just a couple of points north of west. at no point in its history has it shown any inclination to move north, I would think that it will hit into the Yucatan before making any significant shift. scource is wunderground storm history."

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:12 PM

Re: Wilma

When the NHC says its 95miles away from the center,,that flight level winds, has anyone during landfalls about 50 miles away from the center feel hurricane force winds when they say they extend 75 miles? Another example for Tampa bay people is last years storms came thru...Jeanne and Francais,, Jeanne was still reported at 75mph just west of Lakeland,,but Lakelands highest wind sustained was 68mph when it was southeast of there at 85mph or again people in plant city near had winds over 60-65mph.,,,only 20 miles from the center. Even though these systems are large,,,the wind fields are so tight around the center near the surface and is generally several hundred feet up.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:13 PM

Re: Wilma

Both 12z NOGAPS and GFS appear to stall out Wilma over the Yucatan. Will be interesting to see if the 18z models stay with this scenario.

NOGAPS: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/chart....5&tau=4320

I'm shocked to see NOGAPS doing this.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:15 PM

Re: Wilma

Reality check.

A tropical cyclone is not steered by where it has been, or by where it has just been. It is steered by upper air currents. The only memory it retains of the places it visits, is weakening over land masses, which change the atmospheric level that steers it.

Looking at the previous path to determine the future path will get you nowhere. All of the angst and concern about this or that wobble or trying to extrapolate recent movements into a longer-term direction, have no scientific base or sound judgement behind them.

The movement of the eye of a hurricane is easy to see on a satellite image. That does not mean it is the thing you should latch onto as far as determining future movement, just because it is the one thing that is easy to see. The information about the air that moves the cyclone is on that image, somewhat, but not in an obvious way, and you have to know how to look for that kind of information, and you have to look in a very broad area, not on the floater that is zoomed into the hurricane.

In other words, it's not easy to see where she's going; it's easy to see where she's been.

Here are the latest steering currents for a storm of Wilma's intensity:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html

Note: I want to add another thought about hurricane motion. It is not on the same time scale that we operate on. We have to think in terms more slowly. We cannot think in terms of one satellite image to another (only a half hour in time), but on a longer time track. We watch the sat loops and forget that we're looking at eight hours of movement collapsed into two seconds.

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:15 PM

NHC Disco

As I read the comments here and watched Max continually stating that anyone from Tampa south needs to be carefully monitoring this storm, I picked up on this from the 11AM disco:

DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET ARE BEING INGESTED INTO
THE 12Z MODELS AND WE WILL SOON SEE WHAT IMPACT THESE DATA HAVE ON
THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE BASIC SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IS UNCHANGED.
RIDGING IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WILMA ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTHWARD
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A LARGE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS A GENERALLY SLOWER RECURVATURE AND ACCELERATION.
AS FAR AS THE FLORIDA THREAT IS CONCERNED...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
THREAT REMAINS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
KEYS...AND IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO NARROW THAT DOWN ANY FURTHER.

If I am reading that correctly, they may be giving the NOGAPS more credence than they had previously given it. It sounds to me as though what they are saying is this: that the storm may slow down and the turn may not be as early as previously thought. Which is why I think that Max Mayfield kept mentioning TAMPA southward.
Just my own humble opinion; sometimes I read too much into what one sentence may say, but I think, as do they, that this is a "significant change" in the model guidance.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:17 PM

Re: NHC Disco

you know i couldnt agree with you more colleen...why would he keep mentioning tampa if in fact they had any reason to say so....i think its better safe than sorry....

MissBecky

(Weather Guru)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:19 PM

Re: Wilma

Thank you, tenavilla, for posting Max Mayfield's comments. All day I've been reading posts on this forum and checking the satellite imagery...and I still can't make up my mind where Wilma is going. But to read that the NHC thinks landfall will be south of Port Charlotte...well, that worries me. My family and I won't decide until tomorrow if we are evacuating, and it's going to be a hard decision to make.

Oh, and I heard this morning that Jim Cantore is coming to Fort Myers...is this true? Thanks.

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:20 PM

Re: NHC Disco

Tampa isnt out of the question cause we dont know for sure if it will stall or if it does,,where.

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:23 PM

Re: NHC Disco

I was more interested to see that Mrs. Mayfield was putting up the shutters. I think everything is riding on Wilma's visit to Cancun.

TinaB

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:25 PM

Re: NHC Disco

I don't like the fact that Tampa keeps getting mentioned, but I did tell my dear husband the other day that we might have to contend with a hurricane this weekend. To which he replied "why do they always come on the weekends?"...well it looks like if Tampa gets bothered by Wilma it might be more like early next week instead of Saturday. Either way, I stocked up and our shutters are ready to go up if need be. A lot of people think I'm crazy because I do this everytime but I'd rather be safe than sorry. Besides, all my non perishable foods that I buy get used for camping during non hurricane season...gives me an excuse to head to the woods

Brad in Miami

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:25 PM

Re: Wilma

Actually, in my post I should've merely stated that what I was pointing out was a problem with the suggestion that there has not been any WNW motion in the past. Margie is correct as to why the analysis is incorrect (i.e., that even if there were a lack of previous WNW motion, that fact would not demonstrate that there will not be a northern component in the future).

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:29 PM

Re: Wilma

I think that you need to go take a look at what Lake Wales experienced last year, Scott. That town was destroyed...3 times. The winds in Lakeland are mostly taken from Lakeland Linder Airport, so that is not always the full picture. I will tell you one thing...the winds in Lakeland Highlands were damned near hurricane force with Jeanne. All you had to do was walk around Lakeland to see the extensive damage done by Jeanne...100 year old oak trees snapped in half; power lines down, scoreboards ripped out of the ground, etc. My neighbor behind me had a humongous oak tree fall through their living room, nearly killing their teenage son.
I'm sorry, but I just don't agree with your statements in which you say the likelihood of Tampa Bay getting a direct hit is about as likely as a Cleveland team winning a national championship. As a met, I think you need to stop saying that because there are people here who take EVERYTHING to heart -- yes, some people do not read the disclaimer -- and what we say may affect what they do.
There is no way I am going to compare the Cleveland teams' wins or non-wins with what Max Mayfield is saying. Not to mention, even if we *only* experience TS force winds, they still are sustained to 74mph with higher gusts. That's nothing to play around with.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:30 PM

Re: Wilma

Big Red, what are you talking about, there has only been 72 hours worth of NOGAPS reporting as of yet and at 72 hours the storm has already moved off shore ?

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:32 PM

Re: Wilma

of course not, btw Lake wales is alot furth SE of Lakeland...they there had winds around 75-80mph when the storm was 90mph.

Thunderbird12

(Meteorologist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:33 PM

Re: Wilma

The 12Z NOGAPS, GFS, and Canadian models all show Wilma spending a significant amount of time over the Yucutan peninsula. The 12Z GFS is quite a bit slower, similar to its 12Z run yesterday. SW Florida still looks like it will threatened one way or another, but there may not be a whole lot of punch left in the storm if it stalls over the Yucutan over an extended period of time.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:39 PM

Re: Wilma

I find this interesting, out of the Miami weather office:

"OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE COULD BE SOME
EFFECTS FROM HURRICANE WILMA FELT THROUGHOUT SOUTH FLORIDA. PLEASE
STAY INFORMED BY THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER."

Out of Melbourne:

HURRICANE WILMA IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON
SATURDAY THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN...OR POSSIBLY
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS
CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.

Out of Jacksonville:

HURRICANE WILMA IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS
WEEKEND. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF WILMA WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA

It's odd that Miami only mentions "Could be some effects felt". Aren't they under the gun so to speak? I don't know why but it just seems like there wasn't a whole lot of feeling put into that statement.

(Weather Guru)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:40 PM

Re: Wilma

Quote:

Here are the latest steering currents for a storm of Wilma's intensity:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html

Great link! Thanks a lot.

Bloodstar

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:41 PM

Re: Wilma

remember, single model run does not, a definite change make. The Models are very confused at this point, and we'll just have to see what happens, it's a hurry up and wait situation. You can see where there is a weakness almost due north of the storm if you turn on the MSLP tab on the floater. and you can also see the storm starting to hesitate. no definitive answer yet, but I think there is a gradual turn beginning. We'll know more in about 6 hours.

Also, I noticed someone mentioned it earlier, but had no response, there is something at about 11N 55W that seems to be kicking up a little fuss, it doesn't have a closed circulation, but looking at the quikscat, there is a definite low level twist. I know upper level winds 'aren't favorable for development' but it looks pretty good for 'disorganized' Any thoughts on what I'm not seeing with that one? Certainly i would think it'd warrent an invest of some sort.

-Mark

(Weather Guru)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:43 PM

Re: Wilma

True, analyzing past motion doesn't mean that will continue into the future. However, two things can be taken from the past motion. The first is everyone harps on trends not wobbles. If you compare data over hours or days you may be able to tell when a true change in direction is occurring versus a wobble. The second is one can compare that movement to the official forecast. Thus you can tell if the storm is tracking one way for a longer/shorter period of time than was forecast. To me, Wilma's track to the WNW instead of a NW curve(at least at this point) is significant in terms of intensity and potential landfall timing in Florida.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:50 PM

Re: Wilma

Can you send me the link to the 12Z NOGAPS you are looking at ? I am not showing any maps past 72 hours. And what I see is the storm moving, granted not to fast, but no slower than it currently is. Actually as of the 72 hours I do not see much of a difference in what it was showing in the 00Z, maybe a little south, but not incredibly.

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:50 PM

Re: Wilma

The earlier NOGAPS run is more NNE off the northern Yucatan coast...The 12Z stops aat 72 hrs, probaby pending the Gulfstream (42000ft.) data as indicated above. the only difference I noted in the 6Z and 12 Z NOGAPS up to 72 hrs was that the later nogaps had the sorm off the coast a little later.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:53 PM

Re: Wilma

I agree T'bird. I don't know how they (12z NOGAPS & GFS) have the storm 20+ hours on the Yucatan and stay that strong! I would tend to think this would disrupt the core significantly. Then they are strengthening this prior to landfall on Florida as a Cat 3 from what I can tell, and keep it at about 75knots off the east coast of Florida. Maybe they are assuming a period of lower shear until comes off the Florida East coast. They have slowed it down a bit. ????

MikeC

(Admin)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:57 PM

Re: Wilma

Just a note to say that the cancun radar mirror link here is working again. Using mirrors like this is preferable since the actual site cannot handle the load of tons of hurricane trackers looking it up.

ZooKeeper

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 04:59 PM

Re: Wilma

I found this on Accuweather's site just a few minutes ago. Who was it that said the season was almost over??

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, tropical waves are located along 47 west, along 57 west, along 71 west and along 80 west. These waves are moving west at about 4-6 degrees longitude per day. The only wave of concern is along 55 west, where we find a couple of small vortices. Also, the shear has relaxed over this wave and some model output suggests some development is possible in a few days.

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:00 PM

Re: Wilma

the 12z run of the nogaps has landfall near Sarasota........

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:00 PM

Re: Wilma

I just looked and I cannot find any maps with a 12Z timestamp, and the 06z run is the latest one I see. Am I missing a secret website?

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:01 PM

Re: Wilma

well if thats true its gettin a little too close to home....

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:02 PM

Re: Wilma

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/login.do?username=guest
try this for the nogaps

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/
and this for some others

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:03 PM

Re: Wilma

Quote:

the 12z run of the nogaps has landfall near Sarasota........

That has moved north now right? Also, the GFDL follows the official forecast I believe as well.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:03 PM

Re: Wilma

Quote:

the 12z run of the nogaps has landfall near Sarasota........

12z cmc has it below Naples so...............

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:05 PM

Re: Wilma

i think u mean ukmet dont you?
cmc doesnt run 12z out past 72 hrs i dont think so it is hard to tell where it will be past then

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:05 PM

Re: Wilma

Quote:

Quote:

the 12z run of the nogaps has landfall near Sarasota........

That has moved north now right? Also, the GFDL follows the official forecast I believe as well.

No its moved alot south as it was the north outliner and was above tampa and now about 100 miles south this run.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:06 PM

Re: Wilma

Quote:

i think u mean ukmet dont you?
cmc doesnt run 12z out past 72 hrs i dont think so it is hard to tell where it will be past then

Yes the 12z 72 Hr but its fairly easy to see where they have it going in 96 hrs give or take a few miles.

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:09 PM

Re: Wilma

Quote:

No its moved alot south as it was the north outliner and was above tampa and now about 100 miles south this run.

Does it show a stall like the GFS?

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:11 PM

Re: Wilma

I want the link for the gaps 120 as mine still only goes 72 hrs out....And i have no idea about a stall until i can get the link.

native

(Weather Guru)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:11 PM

Re: Wilma

BloodStar - I think HankFrank mentioned something way back a couple days & hundreds of posts ago about something popping up in that general vicinity "later in the month" who knows....lets hope is doesn't like mousakkas!

Lots of hemming & hawing going on here as to the eventual whereabouts of Wilma's arrival. Here are some of my unsolicited opinions...why, at this time (or any other ) is there any reason to doubt the experience /expertise/predictions of the consumate professionals at NHC? I don't know why some of us here seem to think we've got a leg up on them? It's confounding at times. The bottom line is this: you cannot read too much into ANYTHING, not a wobble, not a model run, not a single sentence from a 3 paragraph discussion. I think it boils down to everyone's frustration at not being able to pinpoint what Mother Nature is going to ultimately do. That being said, it is the NHC's responsibility to keep the public informed not panicked . Therefore, I don't think (and I could be wrong) you'll ever hear Max Mayfield or anyone else for that matter single out any one town or city (until ofcourse it's as the storm is landfalling) It's always general (ie; SW Florida/Central Florida on south, etc, etc...) Therefore the NHC or NWS statements that may mention "insert your town name here" does not mean your doomed. They are simply imparting information NOT insinuations. Until this storm makes its turn and has its brush with or landfall with the Yucatan Penninsula, all is up in the air.

***steps off of soapbox now***

geesh, sorry about that...anywho, I don't see her making "drastic" changes and here's why:

www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/gulfvismovie.html

So far, most of what they've (NOAA/NHC) been basing their predictions on is coming slowly to fruition. That imagery is pretty powerful.

Psyber

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:17 PM

Re: Wilma

I go away on holidays and look what happens.

I am not at home so I do not have my monster list of links, but does anyone have a good link to the surface temps over the projected path where Wilma is heading north of Cuba?

On a personal note, I have friends who are in cancun on business. I notice that alot of people tend to minimize/dismiss damage to areas outside of the USA(Cuba/Mexico/Carribean etc etc). A Category 4 hurricane is about to flatten a good portion of poor/heavily populated area in mexico and then probably Cuba. Lets all send some prayers out for those people who can't afford insurance/emergency infrastructure in those countries(even if it was offered).

dave foster

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:18 PM

Re: Wilma

Looks to me like Wilma's cracking up, eye's disappeared...well, I hope she is.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir_loop.gif

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:20 PM

Re: Wilma

Thanks, Pam...but what chart do I click on to see it loop?

(Weather Guru)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:21 PM

Re: Wilma

Can anyone tell me whether there is any risk of a storm surge for the Florida *East* coast when Wilma leaves the peninsula after crossing it?

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:22 PM

Re: Wilma

can i get this 120 hr nogaps link please?

HanKFranK

(User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:24 PM

wilma now

well it may be slowly turning nw now. hard to tell with the old inner eye decaying and the new broad eye defining itself. official now has it landfalling at cozumel island as a 5, crossing the cancun area, and swinging northeast from there to a sunday landfall in florida. a lot of the newer runs have it crossing even later. 12z gfs has the separate coastal storm off the mid atlantic drawing the 500mb trough further west over the northeast, with a future track out to sea. nogaps has something similar, so the consensus shift back to the right earlier this morning is a good thing. the threat to the northeast appears to be dwindling... they may have to contend with a coastal low, but that's nothing compared to what wilma would do to them.
no model support for it but there's actually a decent feature east of the windward islands that may be developing a surface low. no real model support (fair upper pattern for the next 2-3 days but no pressure falls shown), but if it keeps firing convection like that something may sneak up on the islands. not very probable. most of the models show this feature turning nw and curving out to sea ahead of wilma.
wave behind it will have an even stronger subtropical ridge with a more westward extent.. and it should be in the western caribbean in about a week with supportive conditions aloft and synoptically induced pressure falls from a strong high in place to the north. quite possible this feature will develop.
also of interest is how amplified the nao negative pattern is remaining in the extended period. the strong block persisting over northeast canada and greenland will eventually cause some more drastic arctic outbreaks as we get deeper into the fall.. based on the pattern a coastal storm with inland early snows and a hard freeze down to the gulf coast may be in order before veterans day. a tropical system timed correctly with this pattern could ride the coast, but with wilma's guidance shifting back offshore the sketchy likelihood of such a thing is well-illustrated.
HF 1724z20october

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:25 PM

Re: Wilma

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/chart.do?loop=true&requestId=1129744754535.1918.3

try this

Psyber

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:26 PM

Re: Wilma

newwatcher, you need to register/create an account to view those pictures.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:28 PM

Re: Wilma

no u dont, under that is where you click on it, it says something like public access click that

bobbutts

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:28 PM

Re: NHC Disco

Don't worry about what people think when you're putting up shutters etc. I got some comments last year putting up plywood before Charley.. "it's only a cat 1" "You must be new to FL" etc.etc.

Much better to secure your property now so you can worry about yourself and family if the storm heads in your direction. Complacency is much worse than overpreperation. As long as you're in the cone you might as well prepare.

Oh and a piece of advice.. If you have a satellite dish and/or conventional TV antenna you may want to take those down at some point. They don't do well in winds and you'll appreciate having them after the storm passes. For Charley my dish was bent beyond repair and my antenna flew away never to be seen again. Once caveat, satellite dishes need to be "peaked" for reception which takes some knowledge so consider that before taking it down . Good forum for satellite info

native

(Weather Guru)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:29 PM

Re: wilma now

Goodness Hank, a hard freeze down to the gulf??

What's in store next here? Somehow, sadly enough with this insane season, an earthquake in the Bahamas wouldn't make me blink twice!

raw

(Registered User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:29 PM

Re: Wilma

Everything in the way of direction seems fairly steady to me, but I am of the thinking that it will go a little farther north than presently being depicted. It seems to me that the steering currents at all levels as well as the movement of the troph will carry her steadily on a course north of the present prediction. I have seen no real change in direction or speed, but the atmosphere just looks like it will carry her farther west and north. :?:

lawgator

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:29 PM

Re: wilma now

Quote:

12z gfs has the separate coastal storm off the mid atlantic drawing the 500mb trough further west over the northeast, with a future track out to sea. nogaps has something similar, so the consensus shift back to the right earlier this morning is a good thing. HF 1724z20october

Do you have a link to the 12Z run? Site I usually go to still has the 06Z run up for GFS.

Ormond Suzie

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:29 PM

Re: Wilma models

Here's a link that I particularily like for updated, animated model runs - it has gfs, nogaps, gfdl, among others:
Experimental forecast- Tropical Cyclone Genesis

(in case this doesn't show, here's the url http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)

Mayor of Moronia

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:31 PM

Re: Wilma

Not necessarily. Hurricane location is not the result of a coin flip or toss of the dice. Hurricanes are dynamic systems. And while it is a challenge to predict future locations with certainty, you can predict future location with some degree of confidence. Because even dynamic systems have parameters that confine the system within boundaries....a bathtub drain is a good example. Or my driveway. When I wash my car I'm pretty confident the water isnt going to flow into my garage or my neighbor's garage but I'm not always confident the water will flow into the street gutter. The other thing is climate. Storms tend to collide with southwest Florida this time of year. Not always, but much of the time.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:31 PM

Re: Wilma

this is the link you need, give the frames a minute to load.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/chart.do?loop=true&requestId=1129744754535.1913.7

I didn't need to create an account for this in order to view it

If need be go to the front page and click public charts

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/index.jsp

lawgator

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:36 PM

Re: Wilma models

Quote:

Here's a link that I particularily like for updated, animated model runs - it has gfs, nogaps, gdfl, among others:
Experimental forecast- Tropical Cyclone Genesis

(in case this doesn't show, here's the url http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)

That still shows the 06 Zulu run for GFS. Frank made reference to the 12. Wondering where that one can be found...

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:37 PM

Re: Wilma

I heard an interview last night with one of the pilots who fly into these storms. It's amazing what they do. He said that we are the only country that does this and our technology is far superior to anyone elses. ...and still they can only narrow landfall down to a 500 mile ranfge at this time.

Mayor of Moronia

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:42 PM

Re: wilma now

Florida has had some hellacious freezes during active hurricane periods. The 1830s & 1840s were one such period. In 1837 I believe it was, Charlotte Harbor froze over. The 1880s & 1890s were another period of hurricane activity, and the winters were awful. The freezes of 1894-1895 pretty much destroyed the citrus industry in North Florida. It's snowed twice in Central Florida during my lifetime.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:44 PM

Re: Wilma

GFDL going crazy again?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_model.html

Fletch

(Weather Guru)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:55 PM

Re: Wilma

2:00 is out. Moving NW at 5. Moved .2 N 0 W last 3 hours

Tropics Guy

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:55 PM

Re: Wilma

Appears that Wilma has a more NW component now on the latest Vis Sat loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
TG

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:55 PM

Re: Wilma

I wonder if it thinks it will miss the next front coming through? Or, since I believe its the same time run as yesterday, if its looking at the same information?

Hhmmmmmmmmmmmmm?

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 05:58 PM

Re: Wilma

Man, that's not making sense. It's got the center not breeching 20N for 30 hours (20.2-87.7 to be exaxt). If you look at the loop it can't take that long. Can it? If so, I'm going away for the weekend and will track her next week..LOL!

Ron Basso

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 06:02 PM

Re: Wilma models

Quote:

Quote:

Here's a link that I particularily like for updated, animated model runs - it has gfs, nogaps, gdfl, among others:
Experimental forecast- Tropical Cyclone Genesis

(in case this doesn't show, here's the url http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)

That still shows the 06 Zulu run for GFS. Frank made reference to the 12. Wondering where that one can be found...

Here's the 12Z GFS link - pretty close to NHC forecast track - maybe a tad north.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_slp_m_loop.shtml

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 06:04 PM

Re: Wilma models

By going north now if that holds does that mean more south track or north track into Florida?Would think more south since it would be back to where it was the other day no?

Fletch

(Weather Guru)

Thu Oct 20 2005 06:09 PM

Re: Wilma models

Quote:

By going north now if that holds does that mean more south track or north track into Florida?Would think more south since it would be back to where it was the other day no?

Depends on the speed. Quicker North now, longer before she turns NE. That would mean a Central FL hit. Slower North or stall would mean a Southern FL or keys hit. Although I think it will maintain a Western component and get very close to the Yuc.

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 06:09 PM

Re: Wilma

GFDL is always shaky in direction after 72hrs so its feeling the trough racing thru to its N and dragging it east toward Cuba. Not out of the question but I disregard anything it shows in movement after 72hrs.

Data went into the 12z models today from the NOAA Jet,,, I feel they will adjust alittle more on each mission data. The Data (from what I know and could be wrong) only shows what is going on ahead and around the system, such as in the Gulf, thing is though, conditions will change in the gulf in 12 hrs so the with the slow movement of her and changing conditions,, the long term movement wont be the same. Anotherwords, the data is good on wilma in her short term motion. Pretty much its only good for fast moving systems cause the enviroment changes, especially with a trough coming down over the weekend,, same steering flow will change. Right now we see its mainly light S-N steering over the Gulf so there is nothing to push her if she gets N of the Yucitan till the trough digs in, this is shown by the models..but when the next Noaa jet goes in and the 1 after that,,those inputs will go into the next 00z and 12z runs in the future and we will again see the short term motion of the enviroment.

charlottefl

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 06:10 PM

Re: Wilma models

Need to wait and see what the models do with the more northward component. If you look at a surface map of the Southeast the ridge overtop of wilma is steadily weakening allowing her to turn more to the north. The next set of runs should be interesting.

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 06:14 PM

Re: Wilma models

this NW movement has been anticipated for days, at first it was suppose to cross western cuba. Its moving NW but also alot are seeing the eye expand some with the dry air patch that went into the center.

CDMOrlando

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 06:18 PM

Re: Wilma - Data included in 12Z gfs

SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NCEP/NWS/WASHINGTON DC
1510 UTC THU OCT 20 2005

THE 12Z NAM HAS COMPLETED. THE GFS HAS BEGUN WITH 32
CANADIAN...12 MEXICAN AND 9 CARIBBEAN STATIONS IN FOR THE
DUMP. ALSO INCLUDED WERE 10 USAF DROPSONDE REPORTS AND 17
NOAA G-IV DROPSONDE REPORTS.

12Z GFS RAOB RECAP...
RIW/72672 - PURGED WINDS 785 MB AND UP...TOO FAST/ERRATIC.
DRA/72387 - 10142...GROUND EQUIP FAILURE.
PASY/70414 - LATE...NOT IN FOR THE NAM...IN FOR GFS.
LWX/72403 - LATE...NOT IN FOR THE NAM...IN FOR GFS.
TUS/72274 - 10142...GROUND EQUIP FAILURE.

CARR/SDM/NCO/NCEP

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 06:25 PM

Re: Wilma - Data included in 12Z gfs

The 2pm Bam takes it into the Yucatan deep then out and across south Florida over Miami.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 06:26 PM

Re: Wilma models

This was on the HPC:

MUCH DEPENDS ON THE FATE OF WILMA EMERGING FROM THE CARRIBEAN...
BUT WITH LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDING MUCH SLOWER WITH SYSTEM...
SCENARIO OF 00Z CMC AND NOGAPS DEPICTING SUPER STORM COMBO WITH
MID LEVEL VORTEX IS BECOMING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. STRENGTH OF
TROF ON LAST TWO RUNS OF GFS INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL COLD SNAP FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION.

Will someone tell me what a super storm combo with mid level vortex is? Sounds like it's a good thing it's becoming less likely!

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 20 2005 06:31 PM

Re: Wilma models

They are talking about a perfect storm type off N.England.

Thunderbird12

(Meteorologist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 06:34 PM

Wilma

I'd like to echo what somebody said earlier regarding the threat to Mexico. While a Yucutan landfall and subsequent stall could decimate Wilma and spare Florida a lot of problems, that scenario would likely cause a signficantly larger loss of life that what would occur with even a very strong hurricane impacting Florida somewhere. I know many of you live in Florida and are rightly concerned about your friends and family and I'm not being critical of anyone focusing too much on Florida, but parts of Mexico are facing a potentially major disaster here.

jaxmike

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 06:35 PM

Moving NNW?

It seems to me that in the past few frames Wilma is moving north of NW. IF, IF, this is the case, and IF this trend continues for a significant period of time, would it stand to reason that the storm will make it further north before it makes its turn to the east?

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 06:41 PM

Re: Moving NNW?

I assume it would be farther north. It would be a shortcut wouldn't it? Then it would take longer to get pushed NE! That's my noneducated guess!

NorEaster

(Registered User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 06:42 PM

Re: Nearing the End of the ERC?

I'm calling the ball, it looks like the end of the ERC.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

Shortwave data also supports this...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR2/20.jpg

Looks like Wilma has another short compact eye. This isn't a suprise since NHC has been discussing re-strengthening all day today. Now I forsee a short period of re-strengthening shortly followed by the circulation center becoming too close to land and that "hoover vacuum" mechanism these monster storms have will suck in the dry air from the Yukitan, and will be the beginning of the end for Wilma.

As far as the track goes, is it slowing down b/c its turning, and will it turn fast enough for Cancun? Reminds me of a freight train trying to slam on the breaks and turn at the same time. Nothing that big can turn on a dime, and the laws of physics (inertia) tells us that it may be too late for those in Cancun.

Big Tk

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Oct 20 2005 06:47 PM

Re: Moving NNW?

It is way to early to tell if this is a trend or just a wobble. I don't think will no anything till tomorrow afternoon or friday night.

(Meteorologist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 06:48 PM

Re: Wilma

Quote:

I'd like to echo what somebody said earlier regarding the threat to Mexico. While a Yucutan landfall and subsequent stall could decimate Wilma and spare Florida a lot of problems, that scenario would likely cause a signficantly larger loss of life that what would occur with even a very strong hurricane impacting Florida somewhere. I know many of you live in Florida and are rightly concerned about your friends and family and I'm not being critical of anyone focusing too much on Florida, but parts of Mexico are facing a potentially major disaster here.

For what it's worth.... I would not be surprised if we see a concerted N component to Wilma's motion by nightfall - if that acceleration has not already begun..

The intermediate advisory by HPC has a northwest movement, which is about 10 or degree change from the 11am advisory: "WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ...7 KM/HR." Moreover, when observing the various sat we see a tendency for the cirrus veil to be pulled more concertedly N and NE throughout the lower Gulf of Mexico then previous time intervals... Also, the northern aspect of the denser inner cirrus canopy is also beginning to oblong in N direction...

This is significat for me because the wv imagery shows a fairly strong wind maxim coming out of TX into the lower Mississippi Valley in association with fairly potent vort max moving through just to the N. I'm actually wondering if the 12z guidance is underdone with this feature, which might make them in error in the amount of left motion in the nearer term...
Anyway, for what it's worth...

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 06:52 PM

Re: Wilma

Quote:

For what it's worth.... I would not be surprised if we see a concerted N component to Wilma's motion by nightfall - if that acceleration has not already begun..

It looks to be north of the points now. Let's hope it spares Cancun as much as it can... (Of course, that would be bad for me, but I think we can respond better..)

native

(Weather Guru)

Thu Oct 20 2005 06:53 PM

Re: Wilma

You make a very good point indeed. While they (Yucatan) may escape a direct hit (still unknown at this point) Wilma's awfully large and I'm sure they are feeling her effects. Also not to be forgotten...Cuba. The PA statement indicates the mountainous regions on western Cuba could experience the possibility of up to 40 inches of rain! That would surely cause disasterous mudslides. Although rightfully focused on us and ours, you are correct, prayers need to be said for the others as well so, mine go out.

Convergence

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Oct 20 2005 06:53 PM

Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest

Well, this new eye structure is interesting. If the structure improves a little more and the eye clears I would call Wilma annular. She already looks a lot like Isabel.

jaxmike

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 20 2005 06:56 PM

Re: Moving NNW?

Quote:

It is way to early to tell if this is a trend or just a wobble. I don't think will no anything till tomorrow afternoon or friday night.

Understood, but I am dealing in a hypothetical here.

IF it does move more N than forecast, then would it make sense that it makes it further N than forecast because it gets in the Gulf before the steering currents are there to take it East.

lunkerhunter

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 06:59 PM

ERC almost finished

Wilma is looking much stronger....
Looks like she has a few remants in her eye.

Zoom of Wilma

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 07:02 PM

NWS MLB

Large chunk of the discussion here from MLB containing some interesting information on the effects of Wilma, including possible expansion in wind field.

WX TOTALLY DEPENDANT UPON TRACK/SIZE/TIMING OF TC
WILMA. WHILE NHC FORECAST TRACK INDICATES POTENTIAL LANDFALL ALONG
SW FLORIDA COAST LATE SUNDAY AND EXITING SE COAST EARLY MONDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY LARGE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY...WITH
MOST RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGAIN SUGGESTING AN EVEN SLOWER
FORWARD MOTION...WITH POSSIBILITY OF STALL NEAR/OVER YUCATAN. LATE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON 15Z NHC FORECAST. THIS
FORECAST SUGGESTS GREATEST IMPACT FROM ABOUT SUNSET SUNDAY TO
SUNRISE MONDAY...HOWEVER LATER FORECASTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING.

DURATION OF POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT WX EXPECTED TO LAST 6-10 HOURS
BASED ON FORWARD MOTION OF 15-20 MPH ACROSS PENINSULA. INTERACTION
OF TC WITH STRONG MID LATITUDE TROUGH/FORCING...SUGGESTS TC WILL
BEGIN TRANSITION TO HYBRID/EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR THE TIME
SYSTEM EXITS ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS...WIND FIELDS
WILL EXPAND AND THEREFORE AFFECT A LARGER GEOGRAPHIC AREA.
SO...WHILE TC MAY WEAKEN TO CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT
REACHES EAST COAST...EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM WINDS COULD AFFECT
MUCH/ALL OF CWA IF SYSTEM TRACKS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE OR FURTHER
NORTH. TORNADO THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE TC CORE AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH OUTER RAINBANDS.
RATHER FAST FORWARD MOTION OF TC SHOULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE
RAINS...ALTHOUGH AREAS WHICH EXPERIENCE REPEAT RAINS OVER NEXT FEW
DAYS MAY BECOME VULNERABLE TO LOCAL FLOODING ALONG EVENTUAL TC
TRACK. ALL CENTRAL FLORIDA INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY UP TO
DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS THREAT.

funky

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 07:05 PM

Re: Moving NNW?

i have to say, that trough (the tail part to the south) sure doesn't look like its gonna pick up wilma any time soon. although we are seeing the ridge breakup a bit on the northeast side of florida (check out the wv loop http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html). notice then on the vis loop cirrus shield being ripped upwards towards the area i just mentioned.

being in sarasota, i am starting to worry again. will be keeping a very close eye on this thing in the next 24 hours. this is critical --> the speed of wilma needs to slow down here this evening. if not, my area could be in for hurricane force winds....

Quote:

Quote:

It is way to early to tell if this is a trend or just a wobble. I don't think will no anything till tomorrow afternoon or friday night.

Understood, but I am dealing in a hypothetical here.

IF it does move more N than forecast, then would it make sense that it makes it further N than forecast because it gets in the Gulf before the steering currents are there to take it East.

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Oct 20 2005 07:10 PM

Re: Wilma

Tip:
I am inclined to ask the same questions you raised, I fact I did earlier this AM when I noted the same thing noting the erosion of the high and the development of what looks to be SW-NE momentum immediately west of the Yucatan.
In addition IF this is now on a NW heading will it ever touch the Yucatan, and if not what is there to keep it around for a day or two...Some of these models have it on Cancun for up to 40 hours...
If the Jet has completed its runs the 18Z runs should have the data you suggested may need to be ingested by the computers...
I think the puzzel will be solved with these next two runs...

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 20 2005 07:10 PM

Re: Moving NNW?

NEW THREAD UP!

(Meteorologist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 07:12 PM

Re: Moving NNW?

Actually, if you look at the wv imagery through the http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html channel, you can see a wind maxim coming out of TX into the lower Mississippi Valley... In concert with said ridge erosion is what I believe is inducing the turn from WNW to NW - per the intermediate advisory... More over, and this is subjective opinion from me, I believe that Wilma is at least in the last 2 hours moving almost NW by NNW.. (Used the edge of a piece of paper technique)... Anyway, I'm starting to hunch that this may pull a fast one on the 12z guidance and never come onshore the Yucatan - might get pretty darn close...

I'm also wondering if the 12z guidance isn't strong enough with the vort max coming into the middle Miss. Valley area in general..

Thunderbird12

(Meteorologist)

Thu Oct 20 2005 07:18 PM

Re: ERC almost finished

It should be noted that the 12Z GFS shows a NW or even NNW motion from now until late tonight, but then turns Wilma back to the west and stalls it after that, so the increased northerly component that seems to be underway is not necessarily inconsistent with the model solutions of a slowdown or stall of Wilma over the Yucutan. It seems increasingly likely that the steering currents will signficantly weaken in 12-24 hours... exactly how far west Wilma has gotten by that time, and whether it acutally stalls or simply drifts along somewhere after that, will determine how much of a landfall this make over the Yucutan. The models have been consistent with one thing... the further east Wilma is, the sooner it will get picked up, but the models have not been consistent about how far west Wilma will get.