MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 11:20 AM |
Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Hurricane Wilma is approaching the Yucatan Peninsula, if the current motion were to hold, Cancun would get the worst of the system. However, the chance exists that it will move to the east and stay off, keeping the very worst effects away from the land. You can see it approach on radar here.
It has slowed as expected, putting the forecasted Florida affects into Monday. There is still an enormous amount of uncertainty, even in the short term (Ie will it or will it not make full landfall (absolute center crossing land) or not, and if the western eyewall just graze, or avoid the Yucatan altogether. Reading the National Hurricane Center's discussion explains this in more detail why.
This impacts how strong it will be when it arrives in Florida, if the storm does not make landfall or even grazes the Yucatan with the eyewall then it will be a stronger system when it approaches Florida.
Although the Timing has changed, the direction of the forecast hasn't changede all that much and still suggests Southwest Florida. This will be a long next few days. The Florida impact may not really begin to be known until the system clears the Yucatan.
Intensity wise, it has held as a strong category 4 storm, and it will probably weaken some or fluctuate up and down. Weakening is most likely since it appears that the western side of the system is getting some dry air entrained into it. When it reaches the gulf it will likely encounter shear (and depending on how much interaction with the Yucatan it has) could get down to a category 2 system. The safe bet is to prepare for a possible landfalling category 3 hurricane along the southwest coast of Florida early next week and hope it is weaker. Listen to local media and officials in your area for exact information.
Additionally there is a wave in the Eastern Caribbean (99L) that may develop over the next few days.
Make your landfall prediction or forecast in this topic.
(full size)
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com Click here for full size image
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.
Event Related Links
Stormcarib reports from the islands
Cancun Radar Animation (Flhurricane mirror)
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL
Lee County, FL
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL
Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh
Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)
Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will likely be doing his live audio show as Wilma approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.
Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is heading toward South Florida see some of his live streaming video and audio here
Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob
WebCams
Royal Resorts Webcams in Cancun
The Royal Sands Animated WebCam (Flhurricane Mirrored)
Reply and let us know of other links.
Wilma
* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of Wilma - Static Image
Wilma Microwave Imagery Animation
Floater Satellite with storm track overlays
Weather Underground Model Plots
cimss page
Wave 99L
| SMOKE |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 11:42 AM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Good compilation of information. Really like that animated model with the current location.
| funky |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 11:43 AM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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well, i just measured out the distance from my area to the coast in sarasota. I am approximately 8 mi. from the coast (the inner coast, not siesta key). a little closer than i had previously thought. is this far enough from the coast that the hurricane will dissipate, say from a cat 4 to cat 2 before it hits me?
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 11:44 AM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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There is very clear dry air entrainment on the west side of the system now just outside the eye. I would be very surprised if the eye is not open west. This storm has probably peaked. Between interaction with land and the dry air now moving into the eyewall, I doubt we will see any strengthening before landfall or near miss.
WV loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 11:54 AM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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absolutely NOT...
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 11:56 AM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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That kind of disipation usually takes a couple hundred miles. 8 miles inland is close enough that with a storm surge the size of Katrina's, you'd be flooded. 8 miles inland means the center of the eye is still offshore when the eyewall hits you.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 11:56 AM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Remember though, there is no guarantee that you'll see a Cat 4... yet.
What's your elevation above sea level?
| Rdietch |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 12:00 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Cat 4? 8 miles inland? don't think so in Florida anyway this is not NO... Anyway its moot as this system is almost a safe bet to not be a cat 4 let alone hit Sarasota anyway both are not likely at all.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 12:13 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
There is very clear dry air entrainment on the west side of the system now just outside the eye. I would be very surprised if the eye is not open west. This storm has probably peaked. Between interaction with land and the dry air now moving into the eyewall, I doubt we will see any strengthening before landfall or near miss.
WV loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
Well, considering that the storm is already starting to weaken - down to 145 at the 8am advisory - I think it's a safe bet to say we won't see strengthening before the greatest approach to the Yucatan coastline. The west eyewall appears to have dissintegrated in the last couple of hours as Wilma approached Cozumel. It will likely continue to weaken as the eye moves just east of the island and heads up toward Cancun. Current movement would put the center of the eye JUST east of Cancun - which would put a large portion of the eye over land and cause weakening i think. I expect we'll see around 130mph winds by the 2pm ET intermediate aadvisory. Having said that, the eye is completely cleared out now... so if it turns a bit further north and manages to stay offshore completely, it likely won't change in intensity. When it clears into the GOM... I don't see the shear that is supposed to be there...
It's going to be an interesting day to watch from afar. Hopefully the folks in Cancun and Cozumel are safe.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 12:14 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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No one can say Sarasota or even Tampa wont get hit directly cause its too early. We dont even know where she will be forsure in 12 hrs from now...she could stall right now as the trough as moved by,,or the slight ridging behind her might make her land on the tip of the Yuc,,near Cancun and drift inland, or just meander N or E towards western Cuba...we dont know...if it does continue NW and alittle more N into the Gulf, then Tampa chances might go up...or again it could do a loop and head E we dont know!!
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 12:19 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Although the 6 hour motion (1 hour old) is much closer to NNW, the 2 hour motion is almost right between NW and NNW. It's worth noting that due to the wobble at hour 5, the 4 hour trend is almost the same as the 6 hour trend.
I'll try and produce more of these as the day goes on, but it depends on my commitments. I have at least one client meeting today.
| Dougyd |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 12:34 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Funky,
The link below provides a storm surge map for your area. If you click on the small map, a full size map (using Acrobat) should provide you the information.
Doug
http://sptimes.com/2004/06/06/Hurricaneguide2004/Sarasota_County_shelt.shtml
| yecatsjg |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 12:36 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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THIS SLOW MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DELAY THE
RECURVATURE TOWARD FLORIDA PROLONGING THE AGONIZING WAIT.
Gee, I think the discussion is right on target...
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 12:36 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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tpratch - AWESOME graphics! For my own selfish sake, I hope your commitment load is low today as I'd like to see more of those!
I woke up this morning and was thinking you gotta be kidding me! Monday afternoon now! ARG...I'm going to be bald before she makes it to Florida. However, I'm sure I'm not the only one ripping my hair out over this....
FLAMOMMY - Hang in there!
They pushed the evac. of the Keys back again...I don't care, if I lived there, I'd leave today....anyone here ever been stuck going to or from the Keys even just on a holiday weekend??? NO FUN.
Does anyone know: If she doesn't landfall in the Yuc somewhere, is she still forecasted to hang around there still for 2 days? Just wondering.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 12:50 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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There's a new invest up:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/05102112
Not what we need right now is it!
| funky |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 12:51 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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45 ft. above sea level. we are actually outside all flood zones here. also, i am officially in manatee county (s.r. 70 & i-75, just east of there)
Quote:
Remember though, there is no guarantee that you'll see a Cat 4... yet.
What's your elevation above sea level?
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 12:55 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Good God....somehow though with this already historic season....having a possible "Alpha" doesn't seem so far fetched huh?!
| HurricaneSteph |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:01 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Hi everyone......I am usually a "lurker" on these boards, but today I am speaking up, as I have a question! I am curious about the models. Why is it that I might look at one model display on one website and it is pretty different from, say, Skeetobites model display? When I look at Skeet's, it shows 3 or 4 models putting Wilma through Central Florida. Another website shows only like 3 models even making it to Florida, the rest of them stop over the Yucatan. I know they vary from run to run, but considering all these runs are current (as of this AM) why is there a difference?
Thanks!!
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:04 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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There are different types of models. The Globals are the ones which you should probably pay the most attention to. They are the newest models out there and therefore work off of more info than some of the others. I hear say that the lbar, the three bamm models etc are the older ones who dont do as well with all the info available. GFS GFDL NOGAPS UKMET those 4 are the best IMO
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:05 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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speaking of the globals the new 06z gfs and gfdl are out
| bobbutts |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:09 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Thank you tpratch for the graphics, well done, exactly the info I'm looking for. If you haven't checked it out, I'd suggest trying grlevelx radar. It only works for the US radar sites so not useful yet, but it's much better than image manipulation for determining angles. Not a bad time at all to do a free trial or buy it.
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:13 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Morning all, morning native....thanks for thinking of me;)....lol...we made hotel reservations about 130am lastnight, just in case we do get evacuated...im telling ya i had to call about 20 hotels just to get one....so anything new ....
i found this link for the movement of Wilma as she approaches cancun
http://www.tampabays10.com/news/live.aspx
| vineyardsaker |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:29 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Good morning Pam,
What would be your best guess for a worst-cast scenario for Volusia County? Do you think we still risk having Wilma passing right over us, or to our north? Would an outgoing hurricane also batter our beaches?
With neighbourly greetings,
VS
| maddie |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:31 PM |
Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Hi,
I'm new to this website but I think its great....quick question is there a website that shows the updated spaghetti models for the storm track? I live in port Richey , 2 miles from the Gulf and am getting a little anxious over this storm......
Thanks
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:35 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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I am not a met so I wont forcast not to mention that this storm is a pain in figuring out what she's gonna do. We (at my house in port orange) have been ready for months. I just add some snacks to the cabinet at the last minute. We have our generator from last year, the pool has been lowered, the food is stocked so only left would be board the windows, which from what i see now wouldnt be necessary, unless Wilma doesnt weaken like they expect. Unfortunately all we can do now is wait and watch the models trend one way or another and come together after she exits the yucatan. That is when we will know. The GFDL is now showing the storm coming off fl between NSB and MELB area which is surely subject to change. Keep an eye out especially after the Yucatan cuz the possibility for stalling or running quickly exists.
peace
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:38 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Accuweather has made a major move south with their landfall (it used to center at Punta Gorda). They also have it a Cat 1 coming ashore in the south Everglades near Flamingo.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurrica...;imagetype=move
| jusforsean |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:40 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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msb????
melb????
in laymans terms where are these??
| engicedave |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:41 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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NSB - New Symrna Beach
Melb - Melbourne
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:42 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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That is just ONE model and it WILL change keep in mind. I was just trying to show that we DONT KNOW.
peace
| vineyardsaker |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:42 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
I am not a met so I wont forcast not to mention that this storm is a pain in figuring out what she's gonna do. We (at my house in port orange) have been ready for months. I just add some snacks to the cabinet at the last minute. We have our generator from last year, the pool has been lowered, the food is stocked so only left would be board the windows, which from what i see now wouldnt be necessary, unless Wilma doesnt weaken like they expect. Unfortunately all we can do now is wait and watch the models trend one way or another and come together after she exits the yucatan. That is when we will know. The GFDL is now showing the storm coming off fl between NSB and MELB area which is surely subject to change. Keep an eye out especially after the Yucatan cuz the possibility for stalling or running quickly exists.
peace
Thanks! My family is also as ready as can be, but we do live on the water (on the Turnbull Bay Creek) and we did have some really nasty tornadoes last year with Charley so we are keeping a very close watch on this one. But then, considering how we have been spared this year and how much suffering others have had we really, really, cannot complain.
Peace and good luck to you!
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:44 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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yes i have a friend who lives on the waterway. See over here I am high and dry even for a cat 5 from the east so i feel much safer even tho i am on a small lake (ret pond LOL)
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:45 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
Accuweather has made a major move south with their landfall (it used to center at Punta Gorda). They also have it a Cat 1 coming ashore in the south Everglades near Flamingo.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurrica...;imagetype=move
that is my thinking ... Brian Norcross called for naples entry.... i think he is going to very accurate.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:46 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
Keep an eye out especially after the Yucatan cuz the possibility for stalling or running quickly exists.
This storm is getting on my nerves - wait, wait, almost there, wait, a little further, oh no look out here she comes - is the way this is going to play out. The good news that almost all the models agree: landfall in SW FL at Cat 2 level. However we can't rule out Cat 3 level just yet, and "SW FL" covers a huge area from Tampa thru the Keys. At this point the 5 day forecast has turned into a 7 day event
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:49 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Doesnt it seem as though there is dry air entrainment and that the eye is getting elongated??
| engicedave |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:49 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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I still have a GUT FEELING that this thing is going to take off and people are going to be caught off-guard.
People are now being told "Late Monday" and if this takes off early on say saturday and gets here late Sunday, people are going to panic hard.
| meranto |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:50 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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If you look at the latest Cancun radar image and high res. vis. satelite images (not so clear) you can see the "starfish" pattern inside the eye, like Isabel had
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:50 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Maddie,
go to the main page of this site there are a couple links to the models.
| UKCloudgazer |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:50 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Here is the moving spaghetti link from this site. Hope it's what you were wanting...
http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?24
| vineyardsaker |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:52 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
yes i have a friend who lives on the waterway. See over here I am high and dry even for a cat 5 from the east so i feel much safer even tho i am on a small lake (ret pond LOL)
In our case, if we have reasons to suspect any hurricane force winds we will evacuate to Orlando to a friend's place which is very sturdy and away from water. With Charley my wife, my three kids and I spend about 2 hours in a walk-in closet after a tornado passed over our neighbour's house (it was pitch dark, but we heared it very well, even in the hurricane force winds, our roof made a loud "CRAAAAK" and our windows almost popped out. The next day our neighbour's house had part of its roof ripped off) and we promised each other that we never, ever would stay for another hurricane.
I wonder what will happen for the Biketober fest and how many of these bikers will attempt to drive around in the storm (most of these folks come from up north and have no idea what a hurricane looks like). Let's hope that we do not have too many casualites.
| maddie |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:52 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Having went through all of the Hurricanes last year and seeing first hand the unpredictibilty of these storms, I can completely understand what you are saying......
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:56 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Well count me in
Hubby and I will be on ours unless it is raining. We had tickets for ZZ Top at the new harley place but they cancelled all of their florida tours so not seeing them this weekend. oh wellIt may be just as well cuz this storm may not hang around the YUC like it is thought to.....
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:57 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:01 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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If this thing stalls over the Yucatan for 24 hours, JB will be right. Ther interaction with land is already having an effect, and the motion seems to be more nw or even wnw, as the NHC predicted
| funky |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:01 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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wow, if anything i would think more north. i'm still waiting for this thing to slow down, right now i don't see it! still waiting....if this thing doesn't slow down, you have landfall in tampa.
Quote:
Accuweather has made a major move south with their landfall (it used to center at Punta Gorda). They also have it a Cat 1 coming ashore in the south Everglades near Flamingo.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurrica...;imagetype=move
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:04 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Actually I hope JB is right because it puts me on the northern part of the storm which for Wilma is where you want to be.
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:04 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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hey funky can you verify where you seen that....i live in tampa and as of right now the local mets and the EOC are saying that we will more than likely not have anything to worry about but i would like to see what your talking about
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:05 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
If this thing stalls over the Yucatan for 24 hours, JB will be right. Ther interaction with land is already having an effect, and the motion seems to be more nw or even wnw, as the NHC predicted
Let's hope for a stall and a hard right turn through the Florida Straits into the Atlantic and out to sea.
Sorry about ZZ Top........but there are always CD's...... peace
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:07 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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OK...someone else sees it too so now I'll say something....(I still don't trust my eyes enough yet to make comments such as I see this or that) however, I'll concur with you on that....look like I can't decide if that's good or bad though....good with some dry air entrainment..obviously...but bad because to my very untrained eye..her the top portiion of her eye looks to be elongating ( in the last loop at least) toward the NE....turn soon = bad.
Bottom line: She's a real head scratcher. However, I will say this...I think that NHC is doing an incredible job with her. I do not envy them with this one.
| Londovir |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:10 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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I have to agree with the others...looking at the latest 2 or 3 segments of the Cancun radar loop, plus the IR GOES loop, it seems clear to me that Wilma is beginning to hook harder to the left. I was thinking it was beelining to Cancun -- now I'm thinking it's turning to plow right into Cozumel instead.
The models may have had something about the stall & loop over the Yucatan Peninsula. The interesting part will be to figure out what she'll do once she gets done with the stall pattern over the peninsula. It's going to come down to a timing issue with the fronts out there I'm going to guess.
| funky |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:10 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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uh, where i see that? on my computer screen i guess! or how about the 8am advisory bumping up the speed from 5mph to 6mph? to slow by definition is the other way around. but who am i to know, i'm just watching.
Quote:
hey funky can you verify where you seen that....i live in tampa and as of right now the local mets and the EOC are saying that we will more than likely not have anything to worry about but i would like to see what your talking about
| engicedave |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:11 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Here's something interesting...
Port of miami just announced their closing starting tomorrow
isn't that odd, considering that Wilma isn't due until late Monday?
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:14 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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well yea obviously you seen ti on your computer screen but i was wondering where you got:
"if this thing doesn't slow down, you have landfall in tampa."...
i wanted to see it for myself...and i wanted to see what the source was thast all.
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:15 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Would Clark or Hank...or anyone else for that matter..care to comment on todays 06GFS slp image loop on the NOAA site?
Fairly in line with the offical forecast for Wilma...maybe a tad north...but it's what it shows coming after.Looks like continued unsettled weather for Fl as well...unless my eyes are deceiving me...Alpha is right behind.
Hope everyone here is encouraging their families, friends, coworkers, & neighbors to keep an eye on Wilma & to be prepared. "Only" a Cat 1 or 2 can still cause problems for affected areas.
| pincty |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:16 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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It looks like WNW again. If this continues it definitely makes landfall in the Yukatan. It will slow down and weaken. Tampa escaped Charlie, Tampa escaped Ivan (remember the Friday night where it kept going west of Kingston), and Tampa will escape Wilma.
| native |
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| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:16 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Man, I hope that the folks in Cozumel and Cancun were as prepared as one can be for these types of things. A stall over either one of those areas could be absolutely horrific...could you image a healthy CAT 4 sitting on top of you for two days!?! I mean really..try to imagine that..the only comparison (remote at best) that we have is Francis..and she was a CAT 2 and it was not two days. God I hope those people got the heck out of dodge.
| Mayor of Moronia |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:20 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Incredible job? Naaah. If you examine the tracks of hurricanes for the last 150 years, in October they usually land in Southwest Florida or around Tampa. A layman can get as close as the 'professionals' with no more information than knowledge of where these storms usually go.
| native |
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| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:21 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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I should warn you against making such flippant remarks on here:
Quote:
and Tampa will escape Wilma.
you'll get chewed up for that! No one knows exactly where she's going to be 4-5 days from now...not even the NHC if you read their DISCO. I'm glad you feel so confident....wish I did.
| ZooKeeper |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:23 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Could you post the link for this please?
Thanks!
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:23 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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i couldnt agree with you more on that native i hope everyone got to safety ....i couldnt imagine what they are going through right now and my thoughts and prayers are with them all and hopefully they will be able to get back up on their feet after this horrific ordeal...alot of people are way more concerned about their home and if its going to hit near them*guilty as charged* but its only human to worry if your home or your friends and family are going to get blown away....
Good Luck Cancun & Cozumel and we are thining of you!!!
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:24 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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You wonder if they really had time to prepare as the NHC was saying middle of the Yucatan channel as of early Wednesday. Looks like the first GFDL that showed Yucatan landfall wasn't so crazy afterall.
| pincty |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:24 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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To FLA Mommy,
We're going to be fine here in Tampa Bay. It appears that its going to plow into Cazumel which should weaken it if it stays WNW. If it hit Cancun it would not weaken much but it appears that this one has Cazumel's name on it. I've been hearing Tampa on these boards for days now. Even though Tampa was and still is in the cone, the chance was much slighter of it hitting Tampa as opposed to SW Fla. Lets hope this thing get picked apart on land and none of Florida gets it.
| Ed G |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:30 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Hey Mets, how about going out on a limb for us...
If you had to select just ONE model between GFDL, GFS, NOGAPS, CMC, MM5FSU or UKM, which one would you choose to monitor?
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:30 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| pincty |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:32 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Sorry about that Native. It's just very frustrating when the NHC and others have been zoning in on SW FLA (even though TPA was and is in the cone) and you get people coming on here and just Wishcasting for Tampa. Over the past two days, I've read Tampa probably more than any other city on this board. I realize Tampa is in the cone, but the probabilities were much higher for Ft. Myers and South. Let's just hope ALL of Florida is missed on this one.
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:32 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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You said it...that #$%* GFDL...it's done some crazy stunts this year but for the most part in end it's been the winner. It frustrating to keep saying/hearing we'll know better tomorrow....now it looks as if that "tomorrow" will actually be Sunday. It'll be interesting to see what recon will come back with on the next round for the eye..if they're going to be able to tell if any of the dry air or proximity to land is starting have any effects on her.
man I need to use that spell check! Sorry.
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:35 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
Wait, if you knew a hurricane was coming through the channel and you were on land either side of it; common sense would say prepare. But then again look at New Orleans?
Obviously people should have been preparing. But there's an enormous difference between being on the west side of a CAT 5 and being just east of the eyewall of a CAT 5.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:35 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Pincty,
You have your Geography wrong. You mean Cancun is getting plowed. Cozumel is the island.
| native |
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| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:40 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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METS AND MODS ARE BUSY FOLKS...Let's not be more work for them. Let's stay on topic (which is tropic) and try not make anymore off-topic comments or inflammitory remarks. (myself included)
| pincty |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:42 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Sorry. What I meant to say was that it appears that it will go inland further south of the tip. Thus if it maintained its apparent WNW motion then it would weaken more as compared to if it just clipped the tip.
| ZooKeeper |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:43 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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Has anyone seen the 10AM? Also, the latest NHC track was 4AM?? Anyone have anything later??
| NewWatcher |
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| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:44 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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thats 10 am central or 11 eastern, its not out yet i am checking at wunderground every 2 seconds for it tho. I imagine NHC wont change anything until this is out of mex
| lunkerhunter |
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| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:44 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
Pincty,
You have your Geography wrong. You mean Cancun is getting plowed. Cozumel is the island.
actually Pincty is correct. Cozumel is getting hit hard now. Cancun's fate is still undetermined. Wilma could veer East of Cancun. Wilma hitting Cozumel
| Rdietch |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:44 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Werll 11am is out and here is the best from it. Winds are 145 but slowed to 4MPH.
Hurricane center located near 20.2n 86.5w at 21/1500z
position accurate within 10 nm
present movement toward the northwest or 325 degrees at 4 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 930 mb
eye diameter 30 nm
Track about the same maybe 20 miles north of last update but really not changed.
| pincty |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:46 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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I have not yet seen it. However if you really want to see something weird go to Weather Underground and check the latest updated NOGAP's track.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:47 PM |
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almost on the yucatan
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preface: lot of emotional discussion on here this morning. tone it down and keep your comments on track, and there won't be deletions and a lot of pointless bickering.
that said, wilma is just about there. it does look like a 10-12hr or so landfall if the short term motion keeps up and the center doesn't start magnetically clinging to land. guidance is still in a place that the coast-hugging idea after florida landfall isn't out to lunch, even though most guidance doesn't support this.
i haven't looked thoroughly for previous comments, but a new invest 99L is active on the eastern caribbean disturbance. there appears to be a low forming on the southern side of the convective region, which has been fairly consistent since yesterday morning. circulation around wilma and weaker ridging further west should draw it northward and recurve it should a system form... track guidance pretty much shows it crossing hispaniola and turning northeast. TWO at 11 should mention it more, as the downplay it's been getting for the last day looks off the mark.
gfs shows a pattern-induced system forming in the southwest caribbean in wilma's wake as strong ridging persists over the east at the surface (while an upper cutoff persists in the same region). also shows response ridging currently over the subtropics staying up, shifting slowly west and weakening in about ten days. this is early, but the same persistent feature i've been mentioning should want to be there by the pattern, and that has been intermittently showing up on gfs. the fact that gfs shows it moving north, then northwest, then northeast near florida in just inside 2 weeks makes it more interesting than usual, but if anything is going to be there then it won't start showing up for 4-5 days. will see.
HF 1446z21october
| funky |
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| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:50 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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this is good news for tampa folks!!
keep slowing up!!Quote:
Werll 11am is out and here is the best from it. Winds are 145 but slowed to 4MPH.
| native |
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| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:50 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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NHC will update the track at 11:00am edt...about another 15 minutes or so.
HankFrank - just curious as to your take on latest GFDL run...I know you had expressed some concern a couple days back about Wilma running up the eastern seaboard and becoming problematic for the NE. Then, I think it was early yesterday (I may be mistaken) you seem to relax a little on that and felt it was maybe more of a maritime problem. So, here's the question: Is there "something" a ridge, a trough, a whatever that may be setting up that eastcoast skirting again come tuesday?
Nevermind HF - I was typing at the same time. As always, thanks for your knowledge.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:50 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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Nogaps is the 0z run from last night on there.
| willw |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:51 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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Quote:and it just had it going to florida the other day... So to say it's going to ft.myers or naples, or tampa or WHEREVER at this moment is impossible, the only reliable track at the moment is where it actually goes right now... 10 hours from now it could be going 7mph WNW again. You won't know where it's going to go till it starts going NE. If it continues NW/WNW and exits more westerly it very well could go more north or it could go directly east. Nobody knows... which is why you must wait and see.
I have not yet seen it. However if you really want to see something weird go to Weather Underground and check the latest updated NOGAP's track.
| jcarroll01 |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:54 PM |
Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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First post ever.....99% of the discussion seems to be very informative, civil, and pretty tame. I think every once in a while someone needs to be the voice of dissent just to get minds churning again after a very long drawn out event.
Thanks everyone for educating me, although I'm still swimming in acronyms.
| Rdietch |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:56 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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Quote:
NHC will update the track at 11:00am edt...about another 15 minutes or so.
11AM track is out and about the same as the 5am track and the storm is going 4 MPH
| zmdz01 |
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| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:56 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Is Wilma starting another ERC? On the navy website, the 85hz shows what appears to be an outer eyewall forming. I've attached the picture since the navy website changes so often:
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:57 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Looking at the WV loop this morning I see what the models are alluding to, but I still think they're overblowing the "stall and sit" scenario.
You have a clearly-defined trough diving towards the gulf coast. In the last 12 hours it has gone from roughly the Texas Panhandle to the TX/LA border, which is pretty good progression! It is also deepening in axis, which inidicates that amplitude is rising there, and height falls should be occurring in front of and to the east of it.
The storm's outflow to the north is being pulled dramatically, to the point that its all the way north to Cedar Key, and is highly asymmetrical. The N and NE flow component of the upper air pattern causing this is clearly visible.
The first low is over Ohio, and headed towards the seaboard.
The current surface map clearly shows the frontal boundary expected to plow through the gulfcoast panhandle area tomorrow, and our forecast holds this out as well - we are expecting a ten degree drop in daytime highs, but the front is expected to come through tomorrow during the morning daylight hours. If it does, this would be, I'd expect, the steering element that picks up WIlma.
As it does the fairly weak blocking high over the FL/AL/GA border should be forced eastward and out, clearing the path for WIlma to move to the north and east.
The exact path will depend on that trough axis, and whether the impulse of amplification that is driving it is strong enough to force a more N-S axis rather than a weaker E-W one. To the extent that the axis tilts more to the N-S, Wilma should move more poleward.
Some of the models appear to be forcasgint a MISS by this trough entirely, instead forcasting that she will not get picked up until the one FOLLOWING that arrives. I don't know if I buy that scenario - the boundary behind the current trough doesn't look all that healthy this morning, while the one in front of it looks quite energetic, and is being driven south with quite a bit of vigor.
Of course yesterday, I thought it would get here this evening. Obviously not at this point....
Still, I would not take your eye off the ball anywhere along the west coast of Florida and particularly into the Keys. While the interaction with land is very likely to significantly weaken the storm, even a much weaker Wilma can still do significant damage......
| pcola |
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| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:57 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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Dr Lyons said yesterday there is the possibility that this gets over the Yucatan and dies. it seems the NOGAPS is thinking this way now...it gets more interesting every run...we could only be so lucky
| tpratch |
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| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:59 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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I think it's likely that is the beginning of an ERC, although it will take some time before it manifests. If I remember from Katrina, land can interrupt these quite nicely leading towards a highly disorganized storm.
Perhaps the models showing it dissipating and never regaining a core aren't out to lunch afterall?
I have to throw in that I do not believe Wilma can stall for the next day or two. It's likely she'll continue her brush with the Yucatan and may make it as high as Cat 5 before entering the GOM and more-hostile conditions.
If you're on the West coast of Florida, it doesn't hurt to be prepared. I'm not saying rush out, board up and leave now - what I am saying is get your tools ready to board (you can always put them back), get supplies ready to leave (you can always pack them in short order), and monitor your local emergency management broadcasts for any evacuation orders. There's a range of Cat 4 to TS at landfall from North of Tampa down to the everglades. It will not get any more specific until Wilma enters the GOM and starts the march towards us at increased forward speed.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:01 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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What run are you guys looking at in the NOGAPS?
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:02 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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JCarroll - if you look to far left on here....look under the heading CONTENT (white letters/navy blue background) click on "General Info" and then at the top there, click on "Terms to know"
You should find that extremely helpful to navigate/decipher the boards here.
| mojorox |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:04 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This is driving me crazy. I am in Orlando. I have almost a hundred orchids hanging in my trees which might have to be brought in so they won't be missles and I am ill. I am worrying more about the angle of entry and exit. If it goes out by melbourne I have a lot of work to do to get ready and I am not looking forward to dragging myself outside to do it.
I feel for the people in Mexico. I know there are people in cozemel that could not get out. One is on a list I am on and there was no transportation out.
| Rdietch |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:05 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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Looking at the one on weather underground...You know the Model you said yesterday had it going to Sarasota when it had it going to Naples...That same model.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:06 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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You mean the old run from last night 0Z,,that model isnt updated yet besides every model changes from run to run... Sarasota 1 day,,next run might be Cuba... they arnt sure.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:12 PM |
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Wilma
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Wilma's satellite presentation is remarkably unchanged from when I went to bed about 9 hours ago. Looks like the motion has been mostly steady, with a slight turn to the left. It is going to have to make an abrupt turn to the right or else stall out to avoid a Yucatan landfall. You can clearly see an outer eyewall on the radar and it looks like the inner eyewall may be starting to weaken. The official advisory still indicates strengthening back to 135 knots in 12 hours, but I have a hard time seeing that happening. I don't think there is time for another ERC to complete.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:14 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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If you read the disco at 11:00 it tells about the new NOGAPS!
THE NOGAPS NO LONGER KEEPS WILMA IN THE
CARIBBEAN FOR FIVE DAYS AND IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE REMAINING
MODELS
It sounds like we are slowly inching closer to at least some consistancy.
| Big Tk |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:15 PM |
Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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The new nogaps run has it going into sarasota in 96 hr. I highly doubt that but it is still way to early to speculate on were this storm will end up.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:15 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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Yeah everyone was looking at last nights old run of the nogaps,,that guy was giving out old info.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:19 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:21 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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I've notived that the NHC hasn't changed its track for a few days, it's almost like they're splitting the models in the middle at times. It seems to me they're taking a wait and see until Wilma gets into the Gulf.
| garrison |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:22 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Anbody have a link to a live Webcam on Cozumel or Cancun, the ones I have bookmarked arent live any more. clearly Cozumel is getting pounded hard and Cancun is going downhill by the minute. thanks
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:23 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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coming up on cnn max mayfield press conf
| Rdietch |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:24 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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Quote:
You mean the old run from last night 0Z,,that model isnt updated yet besides every model changes from run to run... Sarasota 1 day,,next run might be Cuba... they arnt sure.
Yes there is a New Gaps and it keeps it over land for the 5 days.Not that it is right but that is NEW also when you posted yesterday the new 12z run had it going to Sarasota it never did it had it going to Naples.
Anyway there is a New Gaps out and it has changed with the others.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:26 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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I didnt have it going to Naples,,It was Ft Myers-Sarasota area and that is the 6z run from yesterday or the 0z run.
| Big Tk |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:26 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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Here
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:28 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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Quote:Quote:
You mean the old run from last night 0Z,,that model isnt updated yet besides every model changes from run to run... Sarasota 1 day,,next run might be Cuba... they arnt sure.
Yes there is a New Gaps and it keeps it over land for the 5 days.Not that it is right but that is NEW also when you posted yesterday the new 12z run had it going to Sarasota it never did it had it going to Naples.
Anyway there is a New Gaps out and it has changed with the others.
Can you tell me where that new NOGAPS that keeps it over land for 5 days is? NHC said 10 minutes ago that it does not!
| Rdietch |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:29 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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that is the early cycle one not the one with the Gaps which is a Late cycle one.And if the one on the Weather underground is old then its there Fault as it was not there like 30 mins ago.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:33 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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Nogaps isnt on that spagetti model run.....the 6z run site that I get my info from isnt loading up,,,probably traffic problems.. Anyways like I said before,,that was the 6z or 0z run from the other day,,not the 12z run I had unless I saw it wrong at that time.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:35 PM |
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A run is a run is a run
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actually that link DOES have the NOGAPS on it NGPI if i am not mistaken anyway.....
and just for some clalification yest that run did have it going where scott said but his point is: THESE MODEL RUNS CHANGE and will continue to do so, stating the most recent run is just that telling what the run is.
scottsvb is one of tre more knowledgeable people on here that alot of us look to for info, just ask hankfrank or clark, scott also knows of what he speaks
peace
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:38 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* *Killed -- Sent to Graveya
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Quote:
Nogaps isnt on that spagetti model run.....the 6z run site that I get my info from isnt loading up,,,probably traffic problems.. Anyways like I said before,,that was the 6z or 0z run from the other day,,not the 12z run I had unless I saw it wrong at that time.
Isn't the NOGAPS indicated by NGPI?
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:41 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* *Killed -- Sent to Graveya
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Wimla is weakening, but is still maintaining a well-defined stadium eye.
It also seems to have a very organized radar appearance, which I have attached an image of.
I'm still with the thinking that the Hurricane will, after weakening to a Cat2 or possibly weakining to a Cat3, make landfall somewhere between Cape Sable, and Fort Myers, sometime before Wednesday.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:42 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* *Killed -- Sent to Graveya
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I really dont know,, something new I learned or forgot. Might be like the GFDL has GFNL and 2 diff kind of tracks..
| DrewC |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:46 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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The models seem to be drifting more north again. Heaven forbid if the LBAR turns out to be the most correct. It sure has been the most consistent for the last three days.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:55 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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I was looking at the system that might become a tropical system in the next couple of days. Looks pretty good to me.
What are the chances of the system developing?
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:57 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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There are two. One in the SE carribean (potential Alpha 2005) and one by the CV islands (potential Beta 2005). There are a few more waves, but none that stand out like those two. I'm sure they'll be addressed at some point, but for now we're focusing on Wilma.
| Lance Wilson |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:58 PM |
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Invest 99L
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A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD BE
FORMING... AND SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
DEVELOPING CIRCULATION CENTER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:59 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Is it me or does WIlma look like its going WNW?
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:59 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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I have my own thoughts that I shared 2 days ago with folks on another "board".
I think there will definitely be a more northward trend in the models in upcoming days, but I'm not even going to bother listing a landfall - there's too much between now and then to talk places yet. If you're on the west coast of Florida, make your preparations.
| pincty |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:00 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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Weather Underground had a new NOCAP's model on their site approximately one hour ago. Now they have the old one back on. But I am positive that they had an 8:00 a.m. model which was run on 10/21/05. I even checked it twice before posting. Now it is gone and the old one is up.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:04 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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OK,, never know..They usual update the nogaps on there like 6 hrs late. Anyways the whole thing will be over with in 36hrs and what I mean by that is by then we should hopefully see a movement off the Yucitan and a heading that all the models agree on. Hopefully then we can narrow down a landfall within 100miles. For now,,its where it comes off, how long its on land.. etc............
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:04 PM |
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Re: Invest 99L
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Quote:
A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD BE
FORMING... AND SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
DEVELOPING CIRCULATION CENTER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Just spoke to my hubby who is in St. Vincent and he said they have been pounded by wind and rain for the past two days..... Is this Alpha?
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:10 PM |
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NHC Track
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For all the talk about track changes, the NHC has barely moved it's track over Florida all week long. We started this work week where we are ending it with a Naples to West Palm Beach run. I specifically remember it because it was over Boynton Beach(my house) at the beginning of the week and is now over Jupiter at the end of the week (a 25 mile difference). It also didn't really vary from that all week long. The differences in track over Florida have been nil by the NHC. Yes, the models have changed and the NHC track over the Caribbean has, but the NHC track hasn't changed over Florida all week long, except for the timing.
| Steeler Fan |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:12 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Since we are all focusing hard on Wilma at the present time (and some of us have reached the ultimate level of frustration in trying to second guess her), lets not forget those that make this board possible!
We have all appreciated this resource or we would not be here.
Someone posted this same thing last night late evening, but it bears repeating...There is a link on the left of the screen called "Site Donations and thanks".
| engicedave |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:15 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Hello, total amateur here....
If you look at this
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
Doesn't it appear as if the western side is flattening out?
Wouldn't that indicate pressure being applied to that western side?
Thus, a nudging to the north being in the works and possibly even the initial turns?
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:20 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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I'm not sure to my untrained eye it look like a west of north west turn.
| Geoff |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:21 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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There was a comment earlier about "laymen being able to get as close as the 'professionals' with no more information than knowledge of where these storms usually go. " Although I personally wouln't go quite that far, there is some truth to using the basics, along with common sense and historical data.
My 83 year old father is a retired ship captain (Master of All Vessels license) and tracked tropical systems for decades at sea using basically nothing more than a barometer, reports from other ships ,and common sense.
Last year as we were being told to evacuate our home here in Tampa because of Charley, my father called and said not to worry that it was going to turn. I asked him why he thought that; and he said (after reading his garage sale barometer on his porch up in north Tampa) "our pressure is rising, it nevers goes up when they're approaching. It must be turning."
A few hours later we started hearing the local mets saying that it looked like it was turning.
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:22 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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The last jog 15:45 is more west. It's about to get sunny in Cozumel.
| komi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:24 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Yep, looks like: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/tropi...b-201N-864W.jpg
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:26 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Not quite W of NW... Closer to East of NW or further from land.
Here's an updated graphic:
If I put them in reverse order, it would make updates more efficient, but such is life
| Kimberley Clark |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:26 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Geoff, What is your father saying about Wilma?
Kimberley
| KiminCanada |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:28 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Geoff what does he thing about WIlma???
| funky |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:29 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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great updates! it looks like the 6 hour is going to be the path. but the gfdl is saying it will head almost directly west from here, i just don't see that happening. man do i want to be wrong about this one!
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:30 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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LOL he cant say anything about her yet and he would agree cause he used a barometer reading to see the pressure was rising...and for now,,its going away from florida slightly,,so we cant tell. Then when it moves back over water and starts heading NE then we will have and Idea,, but he wont know if it will hit or miss cause its coming at a different angle then Charley did up ther west coast.
| komi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:31 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Looks like is moving more westward now: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:33 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Updated it again to make it more readable and to make the Full path more distinct.
I think this is as far as I'm going to bother with updating the look. No need to make it pretty - it's just data
Then again, I could gussy up this data something fierce and make it so purty...
/but I won't. Back to work.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:45 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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If I was anywhere from Tampa to the Keys, I'd be getting things ready for a possible Cat 3 Monday night/Tuesday. GFS at 12Z shows Cat 3 not that far south of Tampa and deeper than the 6Z. This after sitting on land on the NE Yucatan for 48 hours.
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:45 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Can anyone try and figure out what the distance across the yucatan is on the storms current NW path looks like about 70 mi to me.. Trying to figure out if she keeps moving how long she'll be over land.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:46 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Max Mayfield made the best point in his conference. He said at the end that no one should focus on the fact that it may be a weakening level 2 as it makes landfall in FL. If there was a td in the carib that was going to strike while strengthing to a level 2 it would be a "Big Deal". As far as I'm concerned that's a dig on the reporters that most are to ignorant to get. I can't tell you how many times during Katrina I heard a reporter saying "she's a weakening storm, not going to be so bad....blah blah blah!
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:48 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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so do you think i should reschedule my reservations...i have them set for sunday night....should i go ahead and do monday night...need help...thanks
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:50 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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As Governer Bush said after Katrina there is no such thing as a minimal hurricane.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:53 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Does anyone know of any actual sat maps ( google earth perhaps) that we could see Cozumel through the eye with. I'm sure eventually they will be made but somewhere there may be one right now so I don't have to wait...LOL!
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:54 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
If I was anywhere from Tampa to the Keys, I'd be getting things ready for a possible Cat 3 Monday night/Tuesday. GFS at 12Z shows Cat 3 not that far south of Tampa and deeper than the 6Z. This after sitting on land on the NE Yucatan for 48 hours.
If it sits on land for that long it's hard to imagine it could get back to a CAT 3 with the westerlies ripping at it, the likely dry air instrusion, and the cooler Gulf temps. How accurate is the GFS in terms of intensity?
| funky |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:56 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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and look at the spacing...she is definitely slowing down!!! this is great news for tampa
Quote:
Updated it again to make it more readable and to make the Full path more distinct.
I think this is as far as I'm going to bother with updating the look. No need to make it pretty - it's just data
Then again, I could gussy up this data something fierce and make it so purty...
/but I won't. Back to work.
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:56 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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I google earthed it earlier....NADA....was a good idea though!
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:57 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Good morning. Could not spend any time on storm tracking until now because of some critical personal things I had to attend to.
Poor Cozumel, they really got hammered by a solid Cat 4 slow-moving Wilma. She really cleaned up her act before landfall, and in spite of the repeated sheering off of the NW side of the circulation she kept coming back and rebuilding it. It was clear that the eyewall gained some strength even while the western side kept getting shredded. Looks like the eyewall just finished clearing out (and has been shrinking since I went to bed at around 2 or 3am), and in fact has never looked "better" than right now. I caught some of the recon output -- not all -- from last night/this morning's run, and saw that there were additional wind maximums, so I wouldn't be surprised if she was almost ready for another ERC even having just barely recovered from this one. I see the eye shrunk a bit before landfall so I imagine the eyewall winds tightened up even more. Very bad for Cozumel. I am afraid that when word starts getting out in a some days or a week, that they will have experienced not only a huge surge, which may have engulfed most or even all of the island, but also tremendous damage from the winds. I unfortunately am visualizing the aerial images after Katrina of the Buras-Triumph area.
Fortunately they will have quite some time in the large eywall for people to possibly make it to safety to a taller building, before getting hammered again. However it looks like this one could stay in their vicinity for quite some time without losing too much ground. I can't even imagine what they are going through and what is in store for them today.
I really hate watching the landfall, and so at this point it is really hard for me to look forward beyond these moments and try to anticipate FL landfall.
I read the 10am, and Knabb's writeups were really outstanding. All night I'd been watching the steering layer with those two ridges from the two highs each alternately becoming dominant in the steering, but didn't articulate that in my posts. He made it very clear in the writeup. And BTW they have changed again and as of right now indicate a slightly NNE movement / little or no movement, however it seems as of right now the high over Mex is weaker and is giving a bit, which is possibly what is allowing the NW movement:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html
And look just to the north, to AL/FL Gulf Coast.
Someone made a comment about the NHC track not changing much -- Wilma has spent some days hanging around the Caribbean. NHC's reasoning is to pick the most likely track (and boy do they know how to pick a winner; they've had an amazing track record), and then only make minor adjustments, until a big reason comes along to make a big change to the track. Well that big reason hasn't happened yet. An example is when the track for Katrina was moved 150m to the west, from the FL panhandle to the MS Gulf Coast.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:00 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Sadly, slowing down is worse news for points further north including Tampa. The longer it takes her to get picked up, the more potential northward movement she gains...
YMMV SPSFD
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:03 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
Sadly, slowing down is worse news for points further north including Tampa. The longer it takes her to get picked up, the more potential northward movement she gains...
YMMV SPSFD
Are you talking about a scenario where even the big cold front (that will drop low temps in the Panhandle by 20 degrees by Monday) misses the storm?
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:03 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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12Z GFS still indicates the stall scenario. That is not a good model for intensity, so I would take its reintensification of Wilma after 48 hours over land with a grain of salt. The inner-core of Wilma would likely be permanently destroyed if it spent that much time over land. The 12Z CMC shows Wilma slowing down on or just off the northern coast of the Yucatan, a scenario that would not produce as much weakening as the 12Z GFS.
Wilma looks like your garden variety cat 4 hurricane, if there is such a thing. A large and very well-defined eye on satellite, but the convection is rather warm and not quite symmetrical, so no indication that it is deepening that much.
Regarding 99L, they did a test SHIPS run at 12Z on it and the results suggested only marginal intensification at best. The initial track output suggested movement towards the Bahamas through 72 hours, but then recurvature into the Atlantic.
Edit: NOGAPS keeps Wilma over the Yucatan for about 36 hours, which would also result in signficant weakening.
| Rdietch |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:04 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
Sadly, slowing down is worse news for points further north including Tampa. The longer it takes her to get picked up, the more potential northward movement she gains...
YMMV SPSFD
That is False.Slowing down gives the ridge more time.Per channel 13 Met the slower it goes and stallsthe better for the Sarasota Tampa Area.
| jeangfl |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:04 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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I am confused - I thought if she slowed and stalled she would track farther SOUTH - ????? Frustrations here in Ft. Myers are running at an all time high -
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:05 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
Sadly, slowing down is worse news for points further north including Tampa. The longer it takes her to get picked up, the more potential northward movement she gains...
YMMV SPSFD
Not necessarily.
The key question is which buckles further - the high over MX or the high over mainland FL? If the trough buckles the high over MX, that favors a more northward track. If the other way, then the track is favored eastward.
I've been a fan of the MX high backing off......
| Rdietch |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:05 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
12Z GFS still indicates the stall scenario. That is not a good model for intensity, so I would take its reintensification of Wilma after 48 hours over land with a grain of salt. The inner-core of Wilma would likely be permanently destroyed if it spent that much time over land. The 12Z CMC shows Wilma slowing down on or just off the northern coast of the Yucatan, a scenario that would not produce as much weakening as the 12Z GFS.
Wilma looks like your garden variety cat 4 hurricane, if there is such a thing. A large and very well-defined eye on satellite, but the convection is rather warm and not quite symmetrical, so no indication that it is deepening that much.
Regarding 99L, they did a test SHIPS run at 12Z on it and the results suggested only marginal intensification at best. The initial track output suggested movement towards the Bahamas through 72 hours, but then recurvature into the Atlantic.
!!LINK!! would love 1 to the 12z
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:07 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
!!LINK!! would love 1 to the 12z
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_slp_m_loop.shtml
| komi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:07 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Best scenario for all is - to stall after landfall and to weak as much as possible, after that is not really big diference where going to make landfall on FLA ... weak storm right on me is better then stron storm 100 miles away from me ..
But again, i am not that smart :-)))
| Tracey |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:11 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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check out this wv image n/s axis????
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_hem_loop-12.html
| bobbutts |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:13 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
actual sat maps ( google earth perhaps) that we could see Cozumel through the eye with
http://www.paulseabury.com/tropModels.kmz
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:14 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
Best scenario for all is - to stall after landfall and to weak as much as possible, after that is not really big diference where going to make landfall on FLA ... weak storm right on me is better then stron storm 100 miles away from me ..
But again, i am not that smart :-)))
That might be the best scenario for Florida, but a stall would only make the disaster that much worse in Mexico.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:15 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
Updated it again to make it more readable and to make the Full path more distinct.
I think this is as far as I'm going to bother with updating the look. No need to make it pretty - it's just data
Then again, I could gussy up this data something fierce and make it so purty...
/but I won't. Back to work.
..Keep it up, it's a good product you're creating there... In fact, you should write some code to automate that process if possible - so that one day, when you have your own meteorology domain you can have it as an in situ source.
..Looks like the time over land hypothesis is winning over the 'just barely skimming and staying off-shore'. I was torn between the two late last night, but admittedly tended to side with the barely off shore thinking... That was only given to the short-term concerted 340degree motion, however, between appr. 9pm and midnight.. I'm a big proponent of weightier data contributions, so the kicker becomes the fact that the NOAA dropsonde mission this morning has demonstrated the ridging in the Gulf has more integrity than the 06z guidance believe (may already have been noted by some other posts.. I've been out of the loop all morning). For intensity enthusiasts, the possibilities appear to be limited now to 2:
1) It stalls and rakes the coast for a day or 2 before resuming a gentle NE motion - prior to an acceleration..
2) It moves on inland at a slow rate of speed and lingers in suffication. But...I'm sure you've all covered this...
..Down the road a piece, NEW CONCERN :
"A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD BE
FORMING... AND SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
DEVELOPING CIRCULATION CENTER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS."
..I concur.. I noted yesterday that this wave had some subtle signature of cyclonic curl to it but didn't bother to bring it up because of the package of interest at hand. At the time the U/A winds were unfavorable; however, the system was moving W and still is, and we knew at the time that it was about to move up underneath a favorable U/A. Also, (believe it or not) the areas of the "central" Caribbean could stand a little SST shake-up as they are running about +1.5 SST anomaly (in keeping with the Atlantic MDO), and since it's been a good while since there's been any processing in that specific are, the actual content is impressive enough: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005293ca.jpg
..Anyway, this wave is now moving up underneath a fairly strong U/A ridge expression that will likely be increasing in stature over the next 3 to 5 days, based on 200+mb analysis of the available global based guidance; those being UKMET, NOGAPs, ECM and GFS that I've observed. They all indicate light winds and anticyclonic potential at and above this level, which are all a good fit of larger scale synoptics.
..I believe it is a good bet that a new TC will be evolving of this impulse. Supposing so...after 4 days there will be large scale synoptic changes that will affect the western Caribbean... A full latitude trough is slated to evolve in eastern N/A during the early-middle part of next week, and early indications are that it will subtend a lower height field and SW mid and U/A wind components at and W of 75 longitude in the Caribbean. This would connote a shear axis aligning NNE to SSW; to enter that would be a detriment to "Alpha", should that be the case.
This is all intended as an early plausibility so please don't throw the gallows at me if it doesn't pan out. I just thought it amusing that Accuweather came on Fox News the other day and said that Wilma "will be the last hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. this season". We'll see, but, if this next system evolves, they may end up right for the wrong reasons (I hate that) because large scale synoptics "at this time" appear as though indeed, they would not allow it (more likely) to get W of ~75 lon. Time will tell, but the models were premature about the Wilmas potential recurve into the westerlies, so it may just be that there is a meridianal bias to the current middle range guidance - which could indicate a W correction...
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:20 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:Quote:
This is all intended as an early plausibility so please don't throw the gallows at me if it doesn't pan out. I just thought it amusing that Accuweather came on Fox News the other day and said that Wilma "will be the last hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. this season". We'll see, but, if this next system evolves, they may end up right for the wrong reasons (I hate that) because large scale synoptics "at this time" appear as though indeed, they would not allow it (more likely) to get W of ~75 lon. Time will tell, but the models were premature about the Wilmas potential recurve into the westerlies, so it may just be that there is a meridianal bias to the current middle range guidance - which could indicate a W correction...
I heard Joe B say on some radio talk show that Wima is the last hurricane because the trough that is going to pick her up will clear out the atmosphere.... now i said to myself.. i am no met but that just sounds unscientific and foolish....
| Geoff |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:28 PM |
Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Geoff, What is your father saying about Wilma?
Kimberley
--------------------
Actually, he just stopped by during lunch so he's not near his porch "weather station"
I think we're just like everyone here; we're not letting our guard down, but getting more hopeful.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:29 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Storm is being lifted north on it's NE side and then it will go more east... ne or even ene... if you watch the flow. Thanks ..rarely use that loop and love it.
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_hem_loop-12.html
You can see it digging down trying to tug it and then the flow goes east to west again.
Accuweather is in a rush to get winter on as they are mostly northern guys into snow and blizzards, especially Bastardi who is in an odd rush to write off the rest of the season with a beautiful wave developing into our next named tropical cyclone.
My 5 cents.
| jlauderdal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:30 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:Quote:Quote:
This is all intended as an early plausibility so please don't throw the gallows at me if it doesn't pan out. I just thought it amusing that Accuweather came on Fox News the other day and said that Wilma "will be the last hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. this season". We'll see, but, if this next system evolves, they may end up right for the wrong reasons (I hate that) because large scale synoptics "at this time" appear as though indeed, they would not allow it (more likely) to get W of ~75 lon. Time will tell, but the models were premature about the Wilmas potential recurve into the westerlies, so it may just be that there is a meridianal bias to the current middle range guidance - which could indicate a W correction...
I heard Joe B say on some radio talk show that Wima is the last hurricane because the trough that is going to pick her up will clear out the atmosphere.... now i said to myself.. i am no met but that just sounds unscientific and foolish....
are you sure he didnt say last one for awhile. that would be correct since the big front is going to clear everything out.
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:33 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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no he said last one for the season...... he said that was it.. period
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:38 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:Quote:Quote:Quote:
This is all intended as an early plausibility so please don't throw the gallows at me if it doesn't pan out. I just thought it amusing that Accuweather came on Fox News the other day and said that Wilma "will be the last hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. this season". We'll see, but, if this next system evolves, they may end up right for the wrong reasons (I hate that) because large scale synoptics "at this time" appear as though indeed, they would not allow it (more likely) to get W of ~75 lon. Time will tell, but the models were premature about the Wilmas potential recurve into the westerlies, so it may just be that there is a meridianal bias to the current middle range guidance - which could indicate a W correction...
I heard Joe B say on some radio talk show that Wima is the last hurricane because the trough that is going to pick her up will clear out the atmosphere.... now i said to myself.. i am no met but that just sounds unscientific and foolish....
are you sure he didnt say last one for awhile. that would be correct since the big front is going to clear everything out.
Actually, to be fair... it wasn't Joe B... I'm sorry - I cannot recall the gentleman's name but it was some other senior level dude at Accuweather.... But, it is possible that Joe B made a statement as well, that I am not aware of...
| Spookhil |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:40 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Long time lurker first post......Just wondering is there any possible way it would keep the N NW movement?
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:40 PM |
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satellite images
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Considering that it is October 21, it isn't exactly going out on a limb to say that this will be the last hurricane to potentially affect the U.S.. Just based on climatology alone, the odds are overwhelming in favor of this being the last one. Based on the forecast weather pattern, 99L does not appear to have much of a chance to threaten the U.S. coast.
If anyone is interested in satellite imagery that updates more frequently, the following link has images and loops that update about as frequently as anything I can find on the web, though I don't care for the IR color scheme and the looping program is not the best. Wilma is close enough now to be visible using the Gulf imagery:
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/
| Elaine H |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:42 PM |
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Re: satellite images
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He (JB) was a guest on Hannity's radio show yesterday and he did say that he believed this would be the last of the season.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:45 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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I see what you're seeing also. If you look very closely, that area around TX/LA looked to have been moving southward, but now looks like it's pulling a little north and taking Wilma with it. In the last few frames, it does not appear to be moving as much west as it is north. Also, it looks like there is another trough/ULL coming in from the west that may also pull Wilma northward.
I know it's so frustrating at this point and we all want to know where it's going....as someone from Ft. Myers said to TWC's on-cam met, "It's agony...it's like hating going to the dentist but knowing that sooner or later you'll have to and you just want to get it over with."
I am having serious doubts that Wilma is going to stall out for 36 hours before moving into the Gulf of Mexico. I also think that Cancun is going to just get brushed by Wilma, maybe riding the coast, but I do not think it will go across the peninsula and weaken significantly. Of course, that's only based on what I am seeing now, things could change. I just think that the area building back into the GOM is going to help keep her further east than previously thought. I don't think the first cold front will catch her, but I believe the 2nd one will and she may be further north then forecasted when she turns north.
Of course, take all of this with a grain of salt. It's just my opinion, based on what my eyes see and I could be completely off based. At this point, all of our forecasts have at least a 50-75% of being correct.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:49 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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She may stall for a bit before moving NNW then N in the next 12 hours or so.
| HurricaneSteph |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:52 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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For those of you who haven't used it, you should click on the link for "Stormcarib reports from the islands" on the main page. It's had some updates over the last few hours with 4 or 5 photos showing what's happening right now in Cancun. Pretty cool site, I think. Also, I have another question. If the NHC is in Miami and is in Easter Time....why are the updates on the site posted as Central Time?? Just curious.......
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:53 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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OK the Nogaps 12z model is out and its NOT the NPGL that the spagetti model was showing..maybe a branch off like the GFDL has or it was the 6z run added on the 12z list.. Anyways the 12z Nogaps is simular in path right now to the GFDL near Naples....
Again these models will change slightly and adjust...btw someone said that the NHC all week hasnt really changed their track and he is correct...reason is,, we dont know where it will end up until it feels the trough coming down Saturday.
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:54 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Answer..the storm is located in the central time zone...the lastest radar image shows the eye is over Cozomel..Cancun will be in the northern eyewall, which is the right front quadrant of this storm..it will be a mess there
| StPeteBill |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:56 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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The Weather Channel no longer has Tampa in the projected cone? Am I just anxious to get out of that cone or are they correct?
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:56 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
OK the Nogaps 12z model is out and its NOT the NPGL that the spagetti model was showing..maybe a branch off like the GFDL has or it was the 6z run added on the 12z list.. Anyways the 12z Nogaps is simular in path right now to the GFDL near Naples....
Again these models will change slightly and adjust...btw someone said that the NHC all week hasnt really changed their track and he is correct...reason is,, we dont know where it will end up until it feels the trough coming down Saturday.
That run shows an extensive westerly move over land before going back into the Gulf early Monday morning. What kind of remnants would be left at that point?
| HurricaneSteph |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:57 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Thanks pcola, very interesting...I learned something new today. Had no idea that's how they did it.
| komi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:59 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Is moving on NNW right now: http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeflt.html
| KiminCanada |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 06:02 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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What does that mean???? Good or bad for Florida??? Also are they still predicting it hitting florida Monday into Tuesday???
Thanks
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 06:02 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Does he also consult the chicken bones before making decisions that could cost people their lives?
Barometer could go up from several reasons, only one of which is a system moving away from you. Quote:
Last year as we were being told to evacuate our home here in Tampa because of Charley, my father called and said not to worry that it was going to turn. I asked him why he thought that; and he said (after reading his garage sale barometer on his porch up in north Tampa) "our pressure is rising, it nevers goes up when they're approaching. It must be turning."
A few hours later we started hearing the local mets saying that it looked like it was turning.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 06:04 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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000
URNT12 KNHC 211801
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/17:44:00Z
B. 20 deg 19 min N
086 deg 43 min W
C. 700 mb 2461 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 101 deg 116 kt
G. 010 deg 035 nm
H. 926 mb
I. 7 C/ 3048 m
J. 20 C/ 3042 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.03 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1524A WILMA OB 08
MAX FL WIND 116 KT N QUAD 17:24:50 Z
| Londovir |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 06:04 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Just a FYI....Polk County just pulled the trigger on cancelling school on Monday. I just got the email in my county mailbox.
Don't know if that's premature, or not, but from what I gather it was more logistical than scientific at this point.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 06:07 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Dropsonde into the northern eyewall measured 118 knot winds at the surface, which was actually slightly higher than the winds at any level above that. Given the presence of mutilple wind maxima, it's possible that the normal flight-level to surface wind profile is not the same as you would normally see, though as one of my colleagues pointed out to me yesterday, the winds measured by the dropsonde may be more indicative of gusts than sustained winds.
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 06:13 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Thanks T-Bird...you're always so on the ball with posting the recon. I must say that given the situation this morning with her I thought for sure the next recon might indicate that the dry air was affecting her...but she's tenacious and worked that out before it ever got it.
Isn't the 2pm updated pressure 4mb lower than 10's update??? Although someone had mentioned a possible ERC getting underway & the contraction of the eye would create a drop in the pressure would it not??? Educate me please!
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 06:17 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Ummm, this is the point that I raised...stall over mexico so it can kill more mexicans and less americans? Can we watch what we say about "good news" please? A cat 4 hurricane stalling anywhere over land is going to be catestrophic for those people unfortunate to be under it.
On topic: I see Wilma strengthening as I think if she will stay more north of cuba then the current NHC track shows, keeping her over water. All depends on how much energy the Yucatan absorbs.
Quote:
Best scenario for all is - to stall after landfall and to weak as much as possible, after that is not really big diference where going to make landfall on FLA ... weak storm right on me is better then stron storm 100 miles away from me ..
But again, i am not that smart :-)))
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 06:19 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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The 930mb reading on the 11am advisory was an estimated value, because a plane had not been in there for a few hours. I believe the last recon pressure early this morning was 929 mb.
Completion of an ERC would not necessarily result in a lower pressure (the disruption may actually cause a brief rise in pressure), but the tightening up of the wind field could cause the max winds to increase near the center. However, there is no indication yet that the outer wind maximum has made much of a move. It may just stay in a steady-state mode with two seperate wind maxes until landfall.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 06:24 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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If Wilma does not make an extensive westerly move over land, there will more than likely be some weakening, but not as much as if it was going to cross like they previously thought. Wilma has definitely going on a more NW/NNW path for the past several hours. IF she does not go over the tip of the Yucatan, you can throw that model right out the window. I think those models are based on information put in several hours prior to being spit out.
We have one choice at this point: to just watch and see what Wilma does as she moves towards Cancun. Right now, I'm leaning towards her maybe just brushing the coast near Cancun because of the more northerly component we have seen in the last several hours. Just as it looks like she is going more west, it seems to correct itself and head more nw/nnw. That's the best news Cancun good get.
To the poster who said TWC no longer has Tampa in the cone, that is not correct. I would look at the NHC's cone, not the TWC's.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 06:27 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Thanks, Londovir. It could be a mixture of both. George Jenkins is one of the shelters in Polk County, and I think there are others. Also, no matter what it comes in as -- the weather isn't going to be pretty here Monday.
Off to run some errands!
| engicedave |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 07:24 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Did the forum/system crash?
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 07:26 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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I couldn't get on gor an hour
| komi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 07:27 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Seems like forum is everloaded ...
Some SQL "too manu connectoins" error poping up ...
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 07:30 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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I like to follow them from the beginning. That is one of the things that is so fascinating about these storms. Rita just started
as a cluster of thunderstorms off Puerto Rico before she ended up slamming into TX/LA as a Cat 3. I find it most interesting to watch
them from the beginning. But I'm watching Wilma too. I was just wondering if this might be Alpha, another history maker.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 07:32 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Last one for a while, Can't seem to find a newer image.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 07:33 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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000
URNT12 KNHC 211916
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/19:01:40Z
B. 20 deg 22 min N
086 deg 42 min W
C. 700 mb 2452 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 235 deg 112 kt
G. 139 deg 031 nm
H. 927 mb
I. 9 C/ 3044 m
J. 17 C/ 3048 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C25
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1524A WILMA OB 15
MAX FL WIND 116 KT N QUAD 17:24:50 Z
| Geoff |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 07:37 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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No chicken bones, just many decades of hands on experience navagating in and around typhoons and hurricanes throughout all the oceans of the world.
Of course, that kind of experience and intuition is no longer necessary now that we have all these highly accurate computers models available to tell us where the storms are going.
Besides, you don't have worry yourself; we're all safe and no lives will be lost because I can guarantee that this octogenarian sea captain won't be taking Max Mayfield's job anytime soon.
Quote:
Does he also consult the chicken bones before making decisions that could cost people their lives?Quote:
Last year as we were being told to evacuate our home here in Tampa because of Charley, my father called and said not to worry that it was going to turn. I asked him why he thought that; and he said (after reading his garage sale barometer on his porch up in north Tampa) "our pressure is rising, it nevers goes up when they're approaching. It must be turning."
A few hours later we started hearing the local mets saying that it looked like it was turning.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 07:39 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Recent dropsondes in the SE and NE eyewalls reported 128 kt and 110 kt surface winds, respectively. Surface winds from the dropsondes are consistently showing up as slightly stronger than flight-level winds, though whether the dropsonde obs are representative of sustained winds or gusts is open to speculation.
Wilma appears to have essentially stalled in the last 1-2 hours.
| Circinae |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 07:44 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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I couldn't get most good weather related sites to load either. Interesting that Collier County Emergency Managers are suggesting that the people in the mandatory evacuation zones move north to Sarasota because the cone still includes Sarasota and even Tampa area. I live in a non evacuation area of the the County...unless we have surge projected for Cat 5. Most of this County would be under water then. The number of models running through our area concern me. I will be very interested in seeing what they show when Wilma eventually makes the turn to the northeast.
| Lance Wilson |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 07:44 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
Recent dropsondes in the SE and NE eyewalls reported 128 kt and 110 kt surface winds, respectively. Surface winds from the dropsondes are consistently showing up as slightly stronger than flight-level winds, though whether the dropsonde obs are representative of sustained winds or gusts is open to speculation.
Wilma appears to have essentially stalled in the last 1-2 hours.
Between the 2:04 and 3:17 VDM's, Wilma has moved from 20 degrees 19 minutes and 86 d 43 m to 20 d 22 m and 86.42 m. (Borrowed from another forum.) Assuming they hit the center, that would mean a NNNE, which is not likely, but it is moving a little.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 07:44 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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We all talked about a stall over land, but not BEFORE land. Any ideas?
| iuhoosiers |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 07:46 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Does anyone know when and if Max Mayfield is making his next news conference???
| efaulkSWFLA |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 07:46 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Whats up everybody....
What has to happen for this to stall like everyone seems to think? Does it become stationary, or just continue at its current 4-5-6mph, before it gets picked up?
I am not the model searcher, but was curious if they are all in agreance? Do they have a good grasp where it is going to go at this time? It seems as if the official track by the nhc has been relatively the same the last 18-24 hrs, and the uncertainty has shifted to the intesity at FL landfall. How accurate do these speculations seem to be.. Enlighten me please..
out... ft. myers....
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 07:50 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
Between the 2:04 and 3:17 VDM's, Wilma has moved from 20 degrees 19 minutes and 86 d 43 m to 20 d 22 m and 86.42 m. (Borrowed from another forum.) Assuming they hit the center, that would mean a NNNE, which is not likely, but it is moving a little.
That would be consistent with a stall. There will be wobbling as it spins. The million dollar question is will she wobble onto land or maintain stall and wobble off shore?
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 07:53 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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I don't see a stall now. Speed up the Cancun radar presentation and you can see a fairly consistent motion slightly n of nw...lots of little wobbles but it looks that the center will pass just south and west of Cancun if the present motion continues...they must be getting hammered...a slow mover is so scary..Dennis came thru hear so fast ...20-30 minutes of intense winds...but Ivan took hours and it is enough to drive you nuts..I feel for the 20,000 tourists stuck there....they are going to have a miserable few days...
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 07:55 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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3' N and 1' E probably falls into the range of margin of error for a center fix in a system with a large eye like Wilma. It is difficult to discern any motion from the satellite loop since 1815Z and even before then it was moving very slowly.
Against all odds, the western semicircle of the system actually seems to have rebounded quite a bit, with cloud tops cooling off quite a bit in that part of the system.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 07:59 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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NHC certainly wasn't far off in their pressure estimate.
Wilma strengthened in the sense the pressure dropped a little, and the organziation right around the eye improved, but her overall wind speed is down, and no surprise there.
Actually the last six hours there was a steady NW movement, with oscillations (likely caused by the asymmetrical windfield) around the SW corner of the eyewall (the same type of oscillations that were seen dramatically exaggerated the other day with the very small eyewall). To see this, bring up the wv loop and zoom in like 4-5 times and page through the images.
| komi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:00 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
Against all odds, the western semicircle of the system actually seems to have rebounded quite a bit, with cloud tops cooling off quite a bit in that part of the system.
Yep, looks just fine to me too; http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...CT=1degreeticks
| KiminCanada |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:03 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:04 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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A stall offshore is bad, as it will allow the storm to maintain much more of its integrity - and ferocity - than one that stalls over land.
| jusforsean |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:06 PM |
Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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I am watching CNN and they said we are awaiting a breifing from max at the hurricane center and that there has been a forecast change?? any clues??
| KiminCanada |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:06 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:09 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Definately looks like a brief stall at the moment. Those poor people on Cozumel have been in the eye for almost 3 hours. The people on the south side of the island have been in the eyewall for even longer. This isn't going to be pretty for them.
| Rdietch |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:11 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
I am watching CNN and they said we are awaiting a breifing from max at the hurricane center and that there has been a forecast change?? any clues??
Just normal what he said he was going to do at this time of day.The storm has done about just what they said it would so just a update im sure.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:11 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
A stall offshore is bad, as it will allow the storm to maintain much more of its integrity - and ferocity - than one that stalls over land.
danielw, I and several others spoke about this possibility at length in several different post yesterday, last night and this morning... some of those have some interesting insights if any of you are interested in going back through the last thread.
| stellar1 |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:12 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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In the absence of steering winds, does anyone know whether any of the models will factor in ocean currents? The current in the Yucatan Channel off Cancun is apparently about three knots in a northerly direction this time of year. If winds aren't sufficient to steer her, might an ocean current influence which way Wilma goes?
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:13 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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For the time being, it is at least temporarily slowed or stalled just off the coast (basically over Cozumel), though even the slightest drift to the east will bring it over land and commence weakening. Keep in mind that most of the models don't have Wilma getting picked up until around 48 hours or more, so it could slow to 1 mph and still end up over land for quite a long time, unless it starts drifting away from the coast. Unless it somehow starts drifting more to the east, it will be practically impossible for this thing to not make landfall over the Yucatan sooner or later, even if it slows to almost no movement at all.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:14 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
In the absence of steering winds, does anyone know whether any of the models will factor in ocean currents? The current in the Yucatan Channel off Cancun is apparently about three knots in a northerly direction this time of year. If winds aren't sufficient to steer her, might an ocean current influence which way Wilma goes?
Ocean currents do not have any influence on the track modeling for hurricanes...
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:15 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
For the time being, it is at least temporarily slowed or stalled just off the coast (basically over Cozumel), though even the slightest drift to the east will bring it over land and commence weakening. Keep in mind that most of the models don't have Wilma getting picked up until around 48 hours or more, so it could slow to 1 mph and still end up over land for quite a long time, unless it starts drifting away from the coast. Unless it somehow starts drifting more to the east, it will be practically impossible for this thing to not make landfall over the Yucatan sooner or later, even if it slows to almost no movement at all.
...It must be a remarkable experience to be on the NE aspect of that Island... They been IN the eye now for over 2 hours and that just must be very interesting...
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:20 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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I don't know if I'd call an experience like that "remarkable".... more like "where's my spare underwear!"
I have to wonder if any part of the island is still above water. The surge had to be horiffic with the wind-driven waves on top of it. We took 10 footers in the bay during Ivan, which broke against the retaining wall for my pool. On the gulf it was an entirely different matter - I saw the damage afterward, with some second-floor condos that had a foot of sand in them (!)
Being stuck on the island, as I understand a significant number of people are, leaves one wondering if they're still there..... let's hope so....
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:21 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:Quote:
I am watching CNN and they said we are awaiting a breifing from max at the hurricane center and that there has been a forecast change?? any clues??
Just normal what he said he was going to do at this time of day.The storm has done about just what they said it would so just a update im sure.
Agreeed he did this yesterday too. I bet he tells people in Florida again that all hurricanes are dangerous (among other things)
| nandav |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:21 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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When we lived on Guam in 1976, we were hit with a Supertyphoon (Typhoon Pamela) .. and it stalled going over us.. we were in the eye for 3 hours. People had time to leave the shelters, go look at their property, and come back. Some braver (or dumber) souls probably fixed dinner... Then we had another 6 hours or so for the rest of it to pass. NOT a fun experience... rather terrifying, actually.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:24 PM |
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4:45 Press Conference
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As they did yesterday, Sun Sentinel will have live video of the Max Mayfield press conference at 4:45pm ET
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/
| Rdietch |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:26 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Just ran all the early and Late model cycle runs and every Model except the good ole Lbar has it going to south Florida.The ones ahaving it coming to tampa Sarasota have shifted sout but of course the 1.So out of 50 different Models all but 1 are from FT Myers to the Keys.
Sen from Florida on TV in a plane in the Cane said he was confident of a Sharp turn NE once it gets to the Gulf.
We shall see.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:28 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
I don't know if I'd call an experience like that "remarkable".... more like "where's my spare underwear!"
I have to wonder if any part of the island is still above water. The surge had to be horiffic with the wind-driven waves on top of it. We took 10 footers in the bay during Ivan, which broke against the retaining wall for my pool. On the gulf it was an entirely different matter - I saw the damage afterward, with some second-floor condos that had a foot of sand in them (!)
Being stuck on the island, as I understand a significant number of people are, leaves one wondering if they're still there..... let's hope so....
yeah, well....it's easy to cast out all these menageries in horror but the truth is, we have no idea what they are going through - just to hone that...
some of the most beautiful beaches in this hemisphere are on that eastern coast of the Yucatan and Islands and the esthetic cost will be staggering... I mean, they were getting 35 foot wave this morning before the eyewall wind and surge came in there... Haven't heard any reports from the Island but the damage could conceivably approach category 5 because of duration. So, beyond the immediate enormity of what is likely taking place, unyielding there, the erosion is just going to be incredible.
| komi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:29 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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For now, thats what models say: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:31 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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FYI We had issues earlier today where the site was down for about an hour. It's since been fixed and I'm running some diagnoses on the site and made some modifications to handle larger site loads. It should be stable now, however.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:33 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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000
URNT12 KNHC 212018
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/20:06:40Z
B. 20 deg 27 min N
086 deg 46 min W
C. 700 mb 2454 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 098 deg 119 kt
G. 008 deg 017 nm
H. 926 mb
I. 8 C/ 3050 m
J. 18 C/ 3049 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C25
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1524A WILMA OB 22
MAX FL WIND 123 KT NE QUAD 19:12:50 Z
| komi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:36 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Wilma officialy make a landfall !!!
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:36 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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The last vortex message indicates a little more movement NW than is apparent from satellite, though again, with the movement so slow, the error in pinpointing the exact center comes into play when diagnosing the motion. Whatever motion there is still seems to be to the NW for now.
A recent dropsonde in the NNW eyewall reported surface winds of 127 kts. It'll be interesting to see what NHC pegs as the intensity, since the dropsondes suggest stronger winds than what the flight-level winds would suggest. Also, the near stall has occurred at a bad time for NHC, even if it is temporary, since it comes as they are about to issue a new advisory and this just throws more uncertainty into the mix.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:41 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Check out the last couple of frames on the IR loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
It looks as though she is sorta rolling up the coastline. I've seen this around Cuba I believe. I can't remember which storm but it was like it didn't like the terrain so it just rolled along the coast till free. I hope she makes up her mind soon. I feel for the people in Mexico but I don't want her either.
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:43 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
Check out the last couple of frames on the IR loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
It looks as though she is sorta rolling up the coastline. I've seen this around Cuba I believe. I can't remember which storm but it was like it didn't like the terrain so it just rolled along the coast till free. I hope she makes up her mind soon. I feel for the people in Mexico but I don't want her either.
i think it was Ivan who didn't like Cuba so much.. but i can't recall
| Multi-Decadal Signal |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:47 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Max Mayfield on now!
| stormchazer |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:51 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Yep, all the models seem to know which way it will go. I believe that NOAA is sending another G-IV mission out tonight and if the models stay on track, then like it or not, SW Florida is going to take a hit.
The good news, if there is any, is they will have a sufficent amount of time for those in SW Florida to prepare.
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:52 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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substantial weakening expected.
wind chart
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:52 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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The 5 o clock has it as a Cat 1 prior to landfall which will be late Monday or early Tuesday?
www.sun-sentinel.com
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:01 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Aparently nobody was listening so I'll repeat my post:
Actually the last six hours there was a steady NW movement, with oscillations (likely caused by the asymmetrical windfield) around the SW corner of the eyewall (the same type of oscillations that were seen dramatically exaggerated the other day with the very small eyewall). To see this, bring up the wv loop and zoom in like 4-5 times and page through the images.
Wilma is not stalling, she is just moving very slowly, oscillating as she goes.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:04 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Actually Margie I didn't say she was stalling. I was commenting on her "movement" up the coast... LOL! She may plow right in, I don't know, but the last couple of frames just looked like she was skirting the coast.
| Multi-Decadal Signal |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:06 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:07 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
Just ran all the early and Late model cycle runs and every Model except the good ole Lbar has it going to south Florida.The ones ahaving it coming to tampa Sarasota have shifted sout but of course the 1.So out of 50 different Models all but 1 are from FT Myers to the Keys.
Sen from Florida on TV in a plane in the Cane said he was confident of a Sharp turn NE once it gets to the Gulf.
We shall see.
This is one model run and a 18Z Run. They have been shifting back and forth, when data is added at 00 and 12Z. So we shall see as you stated. Amazing that our Senators are riding along with the NOAA Folks, I would prefer they stay on the ground.
| Lance Wilson |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:08 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
This is one model run and a 18Z Run. They have been shifting back and forth, when data is added at 00 and 12Z. So we shall see as you stated. Amazing that our Senators are riding along with the NOAA Folks, I would prefer they stay on the ground.
Depends on which Senator it is.
| Dawn |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:10 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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What are you saying-things are bad for Florida or good? Please give me your view. Have watched your post for a year now and worried about your brother with Katrina.
I justr don't understand what you said. I live in St Petersburg and am ready, but my parents will not let me get them ready.
Dawn
I have not been watching every post as I am outside trying to clean up my husband's toys and tie them down as they have not been used in so long they will be ready for next year.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:15 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
Actually Margie I didn't say she was stalling. I was commenting on her "movement" up the coast... LOL! She may plow right in, I don't know, but the last couple of frames just looked like she was skirting the coast.
Absolutely true and I should have been more specific to those who were talking about stalling, my apologies.
Usually I just add to the ignore user list, don't know what I was thinking, posting to the noise level, which must be getting to me!
| komi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:16 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Well, thay say what i want to hear, will be cat1 or cat 2 @ landfall somewhere on sw fla ....
Make me feel a bit better, but - ready for worse ...
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:17 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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A CATAGORY 1 HURRICANE IS STILL DANGEROUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:19 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Actually I think this storm is getting to everybody. Very annoying when day after day you have to wait a day to see what it's going to do...LOL!
What's the possibility that this thing goes away as far as a hurricane if it sits over land? I've heard referance to it but don't want to get my hopes up.
| funky |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:19 PM |
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Good luck Cancun...
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my wife says cancun is nice. i wish i would have seen it before wilma hit. i fear that wilma will do what katrina did to places along the coast. except wilma is a bit stronger, and is moving slower.
good luck cancun, you will need it for the next 4-6 hours.
| komi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:19 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| rd261 |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:20 PM |
Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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what do you guys think about the accuweather forecast? You can see it at http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurrica...;imagetype=move
I live in Miami and it is looking a bit dangerous.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:20 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
What are you saying-things are bad for Florida or good? Please give me your view. Have watched your post for a year now and worried about your brother with Katrina.
I justr don't understand what you said. I live in St Petersburg and am ready, but my parents will not let me get them ready.
Dawn I was just saying she is moving slowly, not stalled. According to NHC's forecast they just put out not 15 minutes ago, they think she'll continue to move slowly. And sometime before November, Wilma will emerge into the GOM. According to NHC, in about 36 hours, in spite of the fact that some of the models still have her emerging slower than that. So that will be early Sunday morning.
So the Sunday 11am forecast would be the best time to check and see when and where Wilma will hit FL, and in the meantime, make preparations for the eventuality she will hit where you live.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:25 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:27 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Yes, be vigilant and ready. The 5 PM ET forecast track has shifted ever so slightly northward of the previous forecasts. Keep an eye on those as they are released. I'm expecting more northward shifting as the weekend progresses.
| nandav |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:28 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Sure it is! (Better than a Cat 4, I mean).. but I'm was just thinking of all the damage that Katrina did to SE FL .. even TS force winds can cause a lot of damage...
| StPeteBill |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:30 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Denis Phillips just said that the forecast path has been moved 75 miles north. Is this accurate? I have not seen this in any of the models.
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:35 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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I saw that as well, and I believe that it is true... More towards Fort Myers as opposed to Naples , I believe...
Please correct me if I am wrong anyone.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:35 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Moved from the south edge of Lake Okeechobee to the north edge. About 30 miles north on the Gulf coast; maybe 75 miles on the Atlantic coast.
| MadDog |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:35 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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That is what our Channel 9 Tom Terry was showing. We will even get minimal TS force winds in Volusia County.
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:36 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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thats what he just said....ft meyers to naples to the keys are gonna get the brunt of the storm...im not breathing a sigh of relief yet...but lil weight off my shoulders to hear just that.,....
| Rdietch |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:36 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
Yes, be vigilant and ready. The 5 PM ET forecast track has shifted ever so slightly northward of the previous forecasts. Keep an eye on those as they are released. I'm expecting more northward shifting as the weekend progresses.
If you look at the last 10 or so track forcasts they shift it north then south then north then south again.Also if you really look hard at the 11AM and the 5PM tracks and put them over each other they have the exact Same not close but Exact same landfall.The change is the cross which moved from just south of the Lake to over the Lake but Landfall is Exact same.
| komi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:38 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
Denis Phillips just said that the forecast path has been moved 75 miles north. Is this accurate? I have not seen this in any of the models.
Does Denis Phillips knows something no one else knows ?
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:39 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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I just noticed the slight northward shift in the forecast track as well. On another note, I'm a little disappointed with TWC. Their track has a smaller cone, which clearly does not extend as far north as the NHC 3-day cone. I would be overjoyed if Tampa were no longer in the cone, but I think it's irresponsible of TWC to show a smaller area than the NHC. Many people use TWC as their main source of storm information and it is a very misleading graphic.
| nandav |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:39 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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I know it's still too early to really know, but doesn't sound like I'll be returning to work (S. Ft Myers) on Monday! They already gave us yesterday & today off to prepare.... Hope it doesn't go any more North.. because Punta Gorda doesn't need any of this (not that an area needs it, but still have lots of folks living in FEMA trailers there).
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:39 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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i dunno...but it seems that he does...last year he was the one to forecast that charley was gonna turn....so take it how you want...im not speculating anything
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:42 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Actually, it has moved from Marco Island (south of Naples) to Cape Coral (north of Naples). It was pretty much on Marco for a couple of days.
| Nutmeg |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:44 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Yes, it was Ivan who rolled right along the coast of Cuba...almost looked like the eye had "terraphobia" ... quite interesting to watch actually...scary, but interesting LOL
| StPeteBill |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:44 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
i dunno...but it seems that he does...last year he was the one to forecast that charley was gonna turn....so take it how you want...im not speculating anything
I personally can not stand to watch Denis Phillips, so over dramatic, but he does seem to call it like it is. And yes last year he is the only one that kept saying that Charley was not a Tampa storm.
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:45 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Dennis Phillips IMO will give you the facts as well as his own opinion.. He will be the first to say whether we are "out of the woods" and he has not indicated that yet! He also mentioned that he wants to see if this N. shift continues as a trend or if it is just temporary. I guess as far as the immediate TB area, the next 24hrs will be very crucial.All hopes on her just fallin' apart over the Yucitan
Christine
St. Pete
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:47 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Exactly!Even though I did not believe him and I thought it was quite bold of him to say that...he was right on!
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:51 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
Actually, it has moved from Marco Island (south of Naples) to Cape Coral (north of Naples). It was pretty much on Marco for a couple of days.
That is not true. Cape Coral is still north of the dotted line on the NHC's map. The forecast line now seems to be right at the Lee County/Collier County border.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:52 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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URNT12 KNHC 212148
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/21:42:30Z
B. 20 deg 34 min N
086 deg 45 min W
C. 700 mb 2458 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 142 deg 115 kt
G. 46 deg 028 nm
H. EXTRAP 928 mb
I. 7 C/ 3044 m
J. 18 C/ 3040 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C24
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1524A WILMA OB 28
MAX FL WIND 119 KT N QUAD 20:01:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
| Rdietch |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:55 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| komi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:57 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Hmm, is not movig too much in this moment:
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeflt.html
| pincty |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 10:01 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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On the morning Charlie hit, he thought it was Tampa's storm. Later that morning or early afternoon, he stated that Charlie had wobbled to the right and if this continued, it wouldn't be a wobble but instead a change in the direction of the storm. A few minutes earlier, a met from Bay News 9 noted the same thing. So I wouldn't say that he predicted that Charlie was not a Tampa storm. He merely made the call first about the change in direction.
| Torali |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 10:01 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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For those of you interested, some realtor in Cancun has been posting some pictures (as post attachments) here:
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/2005/mexico.shtml
T
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 10:02 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 10:05 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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thats absolutely amazing....serves the guy right holding onto the railing for being out there....lol
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 10:06 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
OK. Bonita Springs.
Not that it really matters... At the 11 p.m. update the track will probably have shifted southward again, LOL. All this back-and-forth is driving me crazy! I think it will be another day before we really begin to have a firm idea of the actual landfall position.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 10:08 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Well the 18Z GFS came out and shows landfall south of Tampa (again) but deeper than the 12Z. This is at hour 66, so it means the stall, if at all, will be short lived. Don't let your guard down on this one folks>
| Lance Wilson |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 10:12 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Quote:
Well the 18Z GFS came out and shows landfall south of Tampa (again) but deeper than the 12Z. This is at hour 66, so it means the stall, if at all, will be short lived. Don't let your guard down on this one folks>
How far south? On another forum someone said around Ft Myers. (Not originally from Florida, so I don't know the coast very well.)
| Geoff |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 10:28 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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I recall from reading previous posts that there is sometimes an elongation in the direction of travel as a hurricane is beginning to turn. As I've been watching the model runs such as NOGAPS over the past few days they seem to confirm that this elongation does occur when the show their turns (is that correct?)
Does it appear to anyone else that there is this type of elongation beginning to occur in the last portion of the IR loop? It also seems like there is a bit of a more northerly component in the last frames of the floaters. This may just be more stairstepping...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 10:33 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Too early to tell if it is a wobble or trend.
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 10:34 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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New thread.
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=tb2005&Number=60889#Post60889
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 10:36 PM |
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Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
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Don't these recons just continue to blow you away?
Even now, as perfect an eye as you will ever see...11 deg temp diff! still holding her own even with the inevitable slippage in pressure and wind speed. Not really enough to make any difference to those in her path. I am not jaded and am still amazed at the low pressure she has managed to maintain. Truth is that ERC was a cakewalk for Wilma.
Cozumel is just about to start getting battered with the strong SE eyewall, that will take about 5 hours to complete, and then they'll be "glad" to have only 100mph winds. They'll probably be able to start going outside around noon tomorrow. It will take that long to pass over them...about 36 hours in total.
| Multi-Decadal Signal |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 10:43 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
|
Quote:
New thread.
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=tb2005&Number=60889#Post60889
i guess that this means...
NEW THREAD Has Been Started by MikeC
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 10:45 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
|
I'm suprised it has been able to maintain itself as long as it has, though the warming convection on IR suggests some slow weakening might be commencing. Whether or not the winds have actually come down at all today is questionable... flight-level winds suggest that they have, but the dropsondes suggest they have not. The multiple wind maxes are making it more difficult to assess the wind field.