Clark
(Meteorologist)
Fri Nov 18 2005 08:44 PM
Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

The remnants of Tropical Depression 27 have reformed in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea. Just off of the coast of Honduras -- and they've gained a name, too,

Tropical Storm Gamma, the season's 24th named system. The expected movement is toward the north and ultimately northeast, passing through the Keys and across extreme southern Florida as a strong tropical storm in 3-4 days.

Residents of the Florida peninsula, Bahamas, Outer Banks, and Cuba should pay close attention to the movement of this system over the next few days; the eventual forecast calls for it to rapidly accelerate up the east coast of the US and merge with a significant midlatitude weather system early next week.



More to come later.

Event Related Links

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

TS Gamma (from Skeetobite)
Click for full size:

Animated Model Graphic (Skeetobite)
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of TS Gamma - Static Image
CIMSS TS Gamma Page

Katie
(Weather Guru)
Fri Nov 18 2005 08:49 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

Lovely...just lovely.

Here's to a wet Thanksgiving here in Florida most likely.

Or wet pre-Thanksgiving. Either way it is rain we don't need.

HURRICANELONNY
(Weather Guru)
Fri Nov 18 2005 08:55 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

NOPE KATIE. WAY GONE BY NEXT THURSDAY. AND COOL YEA!!

ralphfl
(Weather Master)
Fri Nov 18 2005 08:56 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

totally a non event but for rain.The Gfdl has it over done IMO and if the GFS and Bam are right and this stays weak it will go way south of Florida but this is NOT OCT or even early Nov.

The shear and cold water temps wil not allow this to go much more and i really think the NHC is even over doing this storm but gamma we have but nothing more then some rain and no wind event or surge just some rain.


My only question is when will the rain come? i hope it holds off till sunday afternoon here on the west coast of Florida.

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Fri Nov 18 2005 08:57 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras *DELETED*

Post deleted by Ed Dunham

ralphfl
(Weather Master)
Fri Nov 18 2005 08:59 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

oh please no electric this thing is not going to be a wind event IMO if its even a depession ill be suprized if it even makes it here.

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Fri Nov 18 2005 08:59 PM
Weather Station

Here is a weather station on the small island(Roatan) off of Honduras very near the center. Winds have been sustained at 45 gusting to 60 mph during the past few hours and the pressure is at 29.58".

http://63.245.92.231/Current/Current_custom.htm

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Fri Nov 18 2005 09:00 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

The official intensity forecast (max at 55 kts) seems pretty bullish considering that they only have the GFDL to use as a basis for that prediction and the environment seems to be rather unfavorable, though if it turns NE, the effective shear may be reduced somewhat.

Tropics Guy
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Nov 18 2005 09:00 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

It will be a wet and breezy day on Monday, probably staying as a TS through the Keys or extreme South Fla.
The shear should keep this in check, if not weaken it as it approaches South Fla, nothing to get too excited about.

TG

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Fri Nov 18 2005 09:02 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

Hey in Boca today someone sneezed and we lost power. I agree the NHC is most likely over doing it, but with the electric lines being held together with spit and glue it won't take much.

HURRICANELONNY
(Weather Guru)
Fri Nov 18 2005 09:05 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

I don't think it will be much of anything. The high tops have warmed and the shear is up to 25knots. Some rain for s.fl and the keys. Other then that it's is still amazing. Maybe will have one every month. I need a break!

ralphfl
(Weather Master)
Fri Nov 18 2005 09:05 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

does it look like a wet start to Sunday? i really hope it holds off here on the west coast till sunday night.

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri Nov 18 2005 09:07 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

I agree and the center is not so well-formed either so I think they're jumping the gun on naming this one, it must be based on windspeed.

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Fri Nov 18 2005 09:16 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

Does anyone think they're being overly cautious becuase they under rated WIlma?

Tak
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Nov 18 2005 09:21 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

I had been watching IR4 sat earlier and it looked like convection bloomed up around 12 UTC for a couple of hours. Color looked like -90 C but then it warmed up. I guess that was enough to push it over the edge and close the circulation.
If there is an upside, even though it is projected to be a "small " event it will at least bleed off some heat/energy out of that basin.

Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Fri Nov 18 2005 09:33 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

I'm not normally one to throw out comments like this but i dont think the NHC is overdoing this really. With recon finding a closed circulation, and the Bay Islands reporting sustained tropical storm force winds, NHC really had little choice but to classify it as Gamma. Sure, their forecast track and intensity may be off, and Gamma may not last all that long, but one thing for sure is that it is here now - and the observations support that.

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Fri Nov 18 2005 09:37 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

Rich-

We're not denying its a TS; we're questioning the strength as it moves closer to Florida.

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Fri Nov 18 2005 09:39 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

I agree, this is a tropical storm, just check the conditions at the weather station link to Roatan Island that I posted a little while ago. Winds have even gusted there to 60 mph and the pressure at that station if calibrated correctly is a bit lower than that estimated by the NHC.

Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Fri Nov 18 2005 09:39 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

Apologies, i seem to have misunderstood.

I too would question the forecast strength, especially given the current shear, and the forecast upper-level conditions. wouldnt be surprised to see it absorbed by the frontal system sooner than indicated. However, it does pose a real threat to south Fla, admittedly not as a major system, but a potentially dangerous system nonetheless.

rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Fri Nov 18 2005 09:43 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma

Gamma's strength will depend on how long it can stay over open warm water in the NW Carribean before it shoots toward, orver , and beyond Florida. The SST is not as warm in the GOM - still, speed is a factor of how strong Gamma will be when it impacts on Florida.

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Fri Nov 18 2005 09:44 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

Rich-

I agree, with our systems not up to speed and blue tarps on many roofs, a major rain is a problem. Someone in my office who has a blue tarp house flooded last night from the rain with virtually no wind. Image what even a 30-40 mph wind will do.

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri Nov 18 2005 09:46 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

Quote:

With recon finding a closed circulation...


? No vortex msg. Where did you see that they found evidence of a closed circ? No evidence on satellite.

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Fri Nov 18 2005 09:46 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

I fully agree with NHC that there is enough evidence to classify the system as 'Gamma'... my main concern is that the intensity forecast is over-aggressive. 55 kts is possible, but it does not seem like the most likely scenario. A lot depends on how much the system winds up before turning NE, if it does at all. If it is well-organized at that point, baroclinic factors may help it intensify or maintain its intensity, but if it remains a broad low, or if it ends up making landfall on the Yucutan, then it could just as easily be a depression or open wave in 72 hours.

NHC is the best in the business, though, and most of the time I second-guess their forecasts, I end up being wrong.

Tak
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Nov 18 2005 10:07 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

Its early in the game. Those track and intensity forecasts will firm up over the next 24-36 hours. We'll see how it likes eating shear and cooler water once it clears the lee side of the Yucatan.

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Fri Nov 18 2005 10:12 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

Sunsentinel.com is really sensationalizing it and saying we may have a cat. 1, but some models say it may dissipate.

The initial forecast called for Gamma to remain a tropical storm as it approached Florida, with the possibility it may become a Category 1 hurricane with winds of at least 74 mph. Forecasters also said some computer models indicated Gamma could dissipate because of wind shear in the upper atmosphere.

"Right now, the forecast is highly uncertain," Knabb said.

ralphfl
(Weather Master)
Fri Nov 18 2005 10:16 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

Honesly the guy on Ch 13 said he is more worried about the squall line with the cold front coming then this storm.

Lysis
(User)
Fri Nov 18 2005 10:21 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

Wow some, like, ‘reverse wishcasting’ going on here.

Anywho… a little proviso on the NHC indicating the cyclone is a tad stronger, which sorta' goes against the waning satellite appearance :

...SHORTLY BEFORE 500 PM EST... 2200Z... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH.

EDIT: sheesh, margie (to post below)... a little anger there. Really, disallowing its namesake by technicality (note you are not absolutly positive that there is not a closed center) would not be good, as it is going to affect the warning area all the same.

Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Fri Nov 18 2005 10:21 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

Margie:

Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center.

The above is taken from the NHC Glossary. You may recall that when recon confirmed that TD 27 has initially developed there was also no vortex message. However, to be classified as a Tropical Cyclone there must be a closed surface circulation.

Regards

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri Nov 18 2005 10:23 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

Do you think I don't know the definition. It drives home my point...do you see evidence of a closed circulation on satellite? Read the discussion, they danced around it.

Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Nov 18 2005 10:33 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

Agree Margie, it doesn't look like much of a circulation but then again I think in the formative stages,
the satelitte pic's can be decieving to some degree.

Too late in the season for arguing amongst friends, it's all good. If we were pro's we'd be in Miami
at the NHC I suppose.

Good luck everyone in Florida. It's been a long and dreadful storm season. I'm ready for it to
be over and if next years season was a light one I'll be happy.

Have a nice Thanksgiving and lets all find something to truly be thankfull for this year....

Tak
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Nov 18 2005 10:55 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

For me, the very last sentence at the bottom of every page is the operative one. The NHC has to walk a fine line between underplaying or crying wolf.

With the reduced hours of sunlight, does anyone know when the diurnal convective maximum occurs?

ralphfl
(Weather Master)
Fri Nov 18 2005 10:58 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

Quote:

Wow some, like, ‘reverse wishcasting’ going on here.

Anywho… a little proviso on the NHC indicating the cyclone is a tad stronger, which sorta' goes against the waning satellite appearance :

...SHORTLY BEFORE 500 PM EST... 2200Z... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH.

EDIT: sheesh, margie (to post below)... a little anger there. Really, disallowing its namesake by technicality (note you are not absolutly positive that there is not a closed center) would not be good, as it is going to affect the warning area all the same.




No wishcasting is to say its going to Tampa when all Models and the NHC say something different.

Only the GFDL has it making it to Florida as a storm and im not sold on this storm.....When the Met on TV says that a squall Line coming down with a front Monday concerns him more i tend to go along with him since he has been good all season.

with the shear and the water temps and the broad center i don't see this doing much PER the other Models besides the gfdl and NOT wishcasting as that term is saved for the guys who yell Tampa when they have nothing to support it.

In this case we have stuff to support it.

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Fri Nov 18 2005 11:07 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

The 18Z GFS doesn't show it to my untrained eye. The only thing all the models agree on is a Nor' Easter.

I do have a question, why isn't the NHC giving any credence to the SHIPS or other models?

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Fri Nov 18 2005 11:09 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

Quote:

SHORTLY BEFORE 500 PM EST... 2200Z... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH.




I wonder if they also used some of the information from the weather station on Roatan Island. http://63.245.92.231/Current/Current_custom.htm
I sent an email to a few people at the NHC about 4:45 pm with a link to that station and stated sustained winds were 45 mph with gusts to 60 mph. Hmmmm.

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Fri Nov 18 2005 11:17 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

The following recon report indicated 43 kt sustained winds at flight-level, which may be the basis of upping the intensity, in addition to the surface obs mentioned above.

000
URNT11 KNHC 182154
97779 21524 60161 86419 03100 36043 20209 /0009
RMK AF309 02JJA INVEST OB 22

Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Fri Nov 18 2005 11:36 PM
Why I think it's heading to Tampa

Quote:


No wishcasting is to say its going to Tampa when all Models and the NHC say something different.

Only the GFDL has it making it to Florida as a storm and im not sold on this storm.....When the Met on TV says that a squall Line coming down with a front Monday concerns him more i tend to go along with him since he has been good all season.

with the shear and the water temps and the broad center i don't see this doing much PER the other Models besides the gfdl and NOT wishcasting as that term is saved for the guys who yell Tampa when they have nothing to support it.

In this case we have stuff to support it.



You're trolling Ralph, but I'll bite.

I think it's going to hit Tampa as a 75mph Hurricane monday Evening. Why do I think that you ask?

1) I think the front in question will help steer the storm up and over florida.

2) I think the shear will not keep the storm from continuing a slow development. (notice several storms have continued to inensify in spite of significant shear this season)

3) as the storm starts accelerating towards the NE, The relative shear will lessen, giving the storm an opportunity to maintain or increase it's strength (see Wilma for a great example of that).

4) the models don't have enough information to make a good judgement yet, So I'll stick with climatology.

Climatology is not the worst thing to use when forecasting, as you can pick out general trends that models will not pick up early in a storms carrer. Modelling becomes useful once the storm is established, but models aren't perfect.

-Mark

dave foster
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Nov 18 2005 11:43 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

For all you dunces like me that hasn't a clue what any of this code means, I looked it up and added my own comments to the example.

Example:
URNT11 KNHC 161227
AF967 0212A LILI OB 08 KNHC
97779 code
12314 time gmt
40169 lat
82508 long
04000 altitude
22020 wind dir / wind speed
25218
/0007 pressure 1007mb
42115;

The first two lines are the heading of the message.

The first group is almost always "97779".

Time. The first four numbers in the second group is the time of the observation, in Greenwich Mean Time (subtract 4 hours to get Eastern Daylight Time, 5 hours to get Central Daylight Time, or subtract 6 hours to get Central Standard Time). In the example, "1231" is 1231 GMT, or 7:31 a.m. CDT.

Location. Find the latitude in the last three digits of the third group, and the longitude in the first three digits of the second group. The latitude and longitude are reported in degrees and tenths. If the longitude is 100.0 degrees or above, the first "1" is dropped in the code, for example, 104.3W is coded "043"; you need to look elsewhere in the code if you aren't sure if that was 4.3W or 104.3W. In the above example, the aircraft was at 16.9N 82.5W.

Altitude. The first three digits of the fifth group tells you approximately how high the aircraft is flying. It is coded in "decameters", which means you need to multiply this number by 10 to convert to meters, then multiply by 3.281 if you want to convert to feet. In the above example, the altitude is coded "040" = 40 dm = 400 m = 1312 ft. This tells you the aircraft is on a low-level mission.

Winds. The sixth group is the wind measured at the altitude of the airplane. The first two digits are the wind direction, to the nearest ten degrees. Wind direction is reported similar to compass headings, where 360 or 0 degrees is north. In the code, 09=east, 18=south, and 27=west. The next three digits is the wind speed in knots. Multiply by 1.152 to convert to miles per hour. In the above example, "22020" is a wind of 220 degrees (blowing out of the southwest) at 020 knots (23 mph).

Pressure. The eighth group, always begins with a "/". The second digit tells you at what level the aircraft is flying. A "0", as above, shows the aircraft is flying below 1500 feet and is estimating sea-level pressure. The next three digits is the pressure or height data. Only if the second digit is a "0" will this be sea-level pressure (in millibars). In the above example, the sea-level pressure is 1007 millibars. This is a complicated group, and for aircraft flying above 1500 feet, see the full decode below.

pincty
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Nov 18 2005 11:49 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

Here we go again with Tampa. Most models don't even have it hitting Florida yet Tampa becomes the favorite again. This storm could be headed to Iraq and many would still be wishcasting for Tampa. I'm leaving for Disney in 2 days and was hoping for some nice weather. I guess I may see some rain on Sunday and early Monday.

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Nov 19 2005 12:03 AM
Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa

Quote:


I think it's going to hit Tampa as a 75mph Hurricane monday Evening. Why do I think that you ask?




I think you're on target with all of your points, Mark, but.. the front in question will steer it south of Tampa, more toward the area where Wilma hit, which is what is forecast (shocking that I'm actually agreeing with the NHC forecast on this one!).

Based upon the IR4 loop over the last couple of hours, I'm afraid Gamma may pull a Wilma and strengthen rapidly, if it's not already doing it. What looked like a sick mass of loosely-coupled clouds earlier this afternoon (about the time the recon info came back which resulted in the upgrade to Gamma) is now coming together rather nicely this evening with much colder cloud tops. It's certainly not Wilma-like right now, but, well, nothing would shock me. Personally, I *expect* Gamma to top out as a Cat 1-2 storm and weaken to a strong T.S. or Cat 1 at landfall somewhere over the Everglades.

Hootowl
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Nov 19 2005 12:03 AM
Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa


I guess I just didn't want to think on it too much so I wasn't online watching a lot.......saw the 5pm news and almost choked on my iced tea!

DANG! enough already. I know the folks in SFL need a break...and....we need the rain - so - I volunteer to have the clouds and rain this time. (well - you didn't think I would volunteer for a 'cane did ya?) When hubby got home and I told him about Gamma - well......you just should have seen his face. ( got him to volunteer to go to the grocery store though)

I believe this will become a very tricky timing thing..from what I saw on the models (haven't looked in a few hours) it almost looked like Gamma and the front will happen so close tog that it might pull part of Gamma further up the coast. Or maybe I just need to watch the models more.

Happy Thanksgiving to all.
Love ya, Dotty

(items that should have been sent using the Private Message capability were removed)

Dawn
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Nov 19 2005 12:04 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

I do not think the people in the Tampa Bay area are wishcasting- we have just been so lucky and we are sure that our day is coming that we worry.

Please do not consider any of as wishcasters.

I think all us in this area feel we have been Blessed.

pincty
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Nov 19 2005 12:14 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

I agree that our day is coming it's just that when all major models have it going way south of Tampa, many still make Tampa predictions. Go back and read the Wilma threads....less than 12 hours from landfall there were tons of posts stating that the front wasn't going to make it in time and Tampa would be hit. And every NHC forecast after that kept zeroing in on Naples, Marco, etc. Yet Tampa kept coming up.

Ron Basso
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Nov 19 2005 12:24 AM
Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa

What I find a little interesting is that the 18Z GFS now shows cyclogenesis occuring in the NE GOM off the panhandle and then deepening as a cold core system inland up the Appalachians. This is quite a signicant departure from earlier model runs that had the tropical system absorbed into a coastal Atlantic low which would develop off the FL east coast and become a nor easter. If this pans out, this tells me that the shortwave trough diving down to the south on Monday will be more toward the central GOM rather than eastern GOM - which, may allow whatever evolves from Gamma to move more northward in the eastern GOM rather than eastward across the southern tip. Of course, with the shear predicted and cooler GOM temps, the system would likely transition (if it maintained itself) into a hybrid subtropical storm with all of the bad weather lopsided on its eastern side. Just one model run but the orientation of the trough and its speed will obviously influence Gamma's path. Latest dynamic model runs are focusing on a Wilma path though so this GFS run may be out to lunch.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...;hour=Animation

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_27.gif

collegemom
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Nov 19 2005 12:33 AM
Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Sat Nov 19 2005 12:48 AM
Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa

I tlooks like the 18Z GFDL has changed its mind and moved very far south and weakened the storm. Is this the result of new information or models going crazy?

HanKFranK
(User)
Sat Nov 19 2005 12:55 AM
Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa

well, i'm one to talk since i didn't think this thing would ever get that far west... but by virtue of it deteriorating and reforming north of honduras the opportunity for it to nip at the u.s. is there. start of the week i was totally against that possibility, but there it is with a forecast track up to florida in a couple of days.
ok, here's the best i can do for now. the system is under some shear as the upper high sheltering it has been displaced to the east. the shear ought to keep it in check unless it starts moving with the shear... i.e., the deep layer flow starts pushing it. like nhc guys are saying, that should happen when the ridging blocking it in the lower troposphere starts to wear down. thing is, we aren't in the late summer or anything.. this is late autumn. the shortwave headed to get it will be trucking, and unless the storm is far enough north/deep enough to catch it and take off.. it'll just get kicked ene and slowly decay under the base of the deep trough forecast in the east next week. the official forecast follows that it will catch that shortwave like the gfdl says and come up like a rocket. under that situation the intensity isn't unreasonable.. as these fast movers tend to have a translational component ramping the winds on one semicircle, and slacking them on the other. i.e., this will only be an event if you are east of the center path.
some of the other globals have the nontropical low forecast to come up ahead of or entrain gamma tracking inland now, further west. under such a scenario the storm could come further west and do the dreaded thing that ralph believes will never ever happen... get the tampa bay area. i'm not entirely convinced it will even get the chance to come up... if it's clocking 60-65mph winds tomorrow that'll be more of a likelihood.. but right now it looks like a moderate tropical storm at worst, that may rapidly wash out if it isn't phasing with the storm and the post-trough axis shear gets it.
for now i'll tentatively put the system coming up, but further east and weaker than the official. perhaps a glance of southeast florida. i'm thinking the timetable will be a little staggered and that the intensity will be on the low side. this is sort of a compromise between the aggressive gfdl runs earlier today and the not-so-enthused runs of other globals who sort of feed it into the coastal storm set to harrass the east next week.
last time we had a u.s. hit in november was mitch in 1998. gordon '94 before that... kate and keith back in the 80s. if it does hit florida, it'll be the latest hit since keith on november 23, 1988.
HF 0055z19november

weatherwatcher999
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Nov 19 2005 01:08 AM
Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa

wow... 24 named storms... in a year!

I'm surprised this wasn't a td or ts earlier in the day-the satellite images revealed very high cloud tops and it actually looked like an inland ts (ex. tammy).
The latest sat. images (look at ir4) are really showing it trying to spin up, with higher tops, etc.

Looks like GFDL has went without the group in the latest model run... it's gotta make landfall somewhere... whether it belize, the yucatan, cuba, florida, or the bahamas. I don't think it will strengthen to a hurricane-the SST's aren't as warm in the GOM, plus shear, and the cold front....

btw, does anyone think the track looks like a wilma?

Tough forecast on this one. My take is a short landfall in the yucatan, near miss on west cuba, and extreme southern florida, then it zooms off to no man's land.

Just my take on it.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Nov 19 2005 01:20 AM
Gamma

Related to earlier posts...yes I read them. The Closed Circulation-is not from satellite imagery. It refers to Recon finding winds that 'close off' a low.
Short version. Recon enters the:
NW Quad-wind from NE.
SE Quad-wind from SW.
NE Quad-wind from SE.
SW quad -wind from NW.
That's the short version of a 'closed circulation', and the wind rose points will vary...but you should get a basic idea from the above.
NE........SE
___Ctr___
NW.......SW
very rough example of closed circulation~danielw

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Nov 19 2005 01:34 AM
Area Forecast Dicussion excerpts

From:
NWS Key West AFD-430pm EST Friday Nov 18th
.FORECAST...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST FOR TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION INTO A STRONGER TROPICAL STORM...WHILE BEING EVENTUALLY STEERED TOWARD WEST CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO SET UP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT OF THIS FORECAST...THE KEYS PUBLIC AND COASTAL WATERS FORECASTS WERE MODIFIED TO INCLUDE
THE IMPACTS OF A PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL STORM NEAR THE REGION DURING MONDAY...WITH EFFECTS STARTING FOR THE WESTERN STRAITS AND MAYBE LOWER KEYS VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE OF COURSE IS LOW IN THE TRACK FOR A NEWLY-HATCHED SYSTEM WHICH IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED.

NWS Miami-241pm EST Friday Nov 18th
THERE IS A POSSIBLE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
DEVELOPING WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM REDEVELOPING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
AT THE PRESENT TIME, THIS SYSTEM WILL AT LEAST MOVE THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS
OR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE THE SYSTEM GETS NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA. THEN THE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH.

NWS Melbourne 215pm EST Friday November 18th
SAT NIGHT...LATEST GFS INDICATING INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE VIGOROUS TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONSHORE FLOW FORECAST TO DECREASE AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS BUT MOISTURE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE INCREASE. MODEL POPS ARE 30-40 PERCENT SO HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
TO SCATTERED.

SUN-MON...MODEL TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SURFACE LOW TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND LIFT NORTHEAST...RATHER THAN A MORE CLASSICAL LOW FORMATION ALONG THE EAST COAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. THIS MAY BE AT LEAST PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE TROPICAL ENTITY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW DUE TO THIS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE VERY STRONG...70 KNOTS OR GREATER ACROSS THE PENINSULA...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING A LOT OF NORTHWARD PROGRESS WITHOUT BEING STRONGLY SHEARED.

NWS Tampa 137pm EST Friday November 18th
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S. WILL SLIDE EAST THRU THE PERIOD. THE WRN SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH TO INDUCE AN
INVERTED TROF OVER THE ERN GULF BEGINNING SUNDAY. SFC FLOW OVER THE CWA WILL VEER THRU THE PERIOD FROM NNE TONIGHT TO SE BY SUN.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. GUIDANCE POPS JUMP TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY SUN.
PREVIOUS FORECAST BEGAN TO INCREASE POPS...AND WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND BUT STAY AT HIGH END SCT FOR NOW.
(a newer AFD exists...830pm EST, but there are no Tropical mentions.~danielw)

Full AFDs use links:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDEYW&max=51
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMFL&max=51
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMLB&max=51
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDTBW&version=1&max=51

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Nov 19 2005 02:02 AM
SHIPS forecast

The new SHIPS model forecast is indicating Gamma shouldn't go higher than 44kts in the next 5 days.

Current shear is 29kts and is forecast to go above 29kts through the 5 day period. At 18 hours ( 2PM EST on Saturday) Shear is forecast to increase to 32kts and the Max Wind Velocity in the storm is forecast to begin decreasing at that time.
Gamma is forecast to maintain Tropical Storm force winds of 39kts through to the 36 hour mark (Sunday Morning-6 AM EST).

This forecast is produced every 6 hours and is subject to change.

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Sat Nov 19 2005 02:07 AM
Re: SHIPS forecast

Between the SHIPS & GFDL (18z) things are looking better for South Florida!?!

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Nov 19 2005 02:46 AM
Gamma

Looks like it is continuing to get better organized, to me. I don't think there will be another recon until tomorrow, but I suspect it will be stronger the next time a plane goes in. There is still shear, though. The biggest thing I can see from the IR loop is the movement - or rather, the lack of movement. Gamma appears to be sitting still. Can we say deja vu?

laxpimpj
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Nov 19 2005 02:47 AM
Re: SHIPS forecast

This might sound like a stupid question, and I realize that any answer I get is based on pure speculation... regardless...

I am at the University of Miami, we have missed classes three times this year because of tropical systems, if gamma does follow through, it could be the fourth. I have a flight scheduled for Tuesday of next week, but I have a feeling I may end up getting stuck here in Miami, and not get to see my family for thansgiving.....

As far as my question goes.... If this thing does end up just being a TS, do you still thing they would cancel classes for monday.... I men they have to right? TS's are still dangerous.... I need to decide tonight whether or not to change my flight to sunday or not.... The reason it is important is because I have a final on Monday...

erm, what should I do?

Major7
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Nov 19 2005 02:49 AM
Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa

Yes. The track does seem to be a little Wilma-ish. In my classroom, we tracked Wilma. Can't wait to bring the latest spaghetti models in.

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Nov 19 2005 02:49 AM
Re: SHIPS forecast

Quote:


classes for monday.... I men they have to right? TS's are still dangerous.... I need to decide tonight whether or not to change my flight to sunday or not.... The reason it is important is because I have a final on Monday...
erm, what should I do?



Talk to the professor. Request to take the final early, or after the storm is over.

Update: 10pm EST advisory is out. Forecast has landfall right over the extreme southern tip of the peninsula on Monday. Winds are still 45mph currently.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Nov 19 2005 02:56 AM
Classes and Recon

You probably won't be the only one with the request. Given the weather...both tropical and arctic that is forecast to greet us next week.

Univ of Miami. Hurricanes.. right!

edit: Recon is tasked for a 0145Z departure tonight. That was a little over an hour ago. I haven't received any position reports as of now. They may have delayed the flight...or they haven't reported airborne yet.
I stand corrected. I didn't check the TCPOD date.
Recon is tasked with 19/18Z, 20/00Z, 20/06Z and 20/12Z fixes. They are scheduled to take off at 1345Z Saturday ( 845AM EST ).

dave foster
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Nov 19 2005 03:09 AM
Re: Classes and Recon

Gamma's moved 13 miles to the west in the last six hours...hmm, I think it has ideas of lurking a bit longer than everyone expects, just like Wilma.

ralphfl
(Weather Master)
Sat Nov 19 2005 03:30 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

Quote:

Quote:

Wow some, like, ‘reverse wishcasting’ going on here.

Anywho… a little proviso on the NHC indicating the cyclone is a tad stronger, which sorta' goes against the waning satellite appearance :

...SHORTLY BEFORE 500 PM EST... 2200Z... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH.

EDIT: sheesh, margie (to post below)... a little anger there. Really, disallowing its namesake by technicality (note you are not absolutly positive that there is not a closed center) would not be good, as it is going to affect the warning area all the same.




No wishcasting is to say its going to Tampa when all Models and the NHC say something different.

Only the GFDL has it making it to Florida as a storm and im not sold on this storm.....When the Met on TV says that a squall Line coming down with a front Monday concerns him more i tend to go along with him since he has been good all season.

with the shear and the water temps and the broad center i don't see this doing much PER the other Models besides the gfdl and NOT wishcasting as that term is saved for the guys who yell Tampa when they have nothing to support it.

In this case we have stuff to support it.


Im not #1 trolling i was only talking to the person who said there was reverse wishcasting and i was not.


As for Mark no need to reply to the tampa post as its not coming here and trust me when a storm is heading this way i am always ready and i would not try and wish it away but this storm is so over done its insane.

I guess with all the flack they took over wilma they are not getting caught with there pants down but trust me when i say this is really not going to be a event for anyone besides some rain.

The weather patterns are not letting this go north and if it even makes it to miami ill be suprized.

ChessieStorm
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Nov 19 2005 04:07 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

I was in school in Tampa when TS Keith hit before Thanksgiving in 1988. First time I had ever gone through a storm that was close to hurricane (70 mph winds). Landfall was near Sarasota.

That was the year that Gilbert went well south of us here and we prayed very hard it would.

Tonight the winds here are brisk out of the northeast at 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. It wasn't this windy during the day. What gives?

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Nov 19 2005 04:18 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

Probably due to the pressure gradient between Gamma and the cold front over the Panhandle.
The earlier AFDs mentioned the possibility (probability?) of the winds increasing tomorrow and Sunday.
The combination of the two systems in close proximity should give some strong breezes over the southern half of the Peninsula at least.

A few post back. I posted links to the Peninsula NWS office's Discussions. The update these every 6 hours or so. More often when the weather is changing.
There was mention of Small Craft Advisories in at least one of the Discussions.

saluki
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Nov 19 2005 06:18 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras

What's with the GFDL? The latest run takes Gamma back up to 100kts at 72 hours, though keeping it south of the Florida peninsula. Many posters have observed that the GFDL has a penchant for overdoing it. Is that the case here?

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Nov 19 2005 09:15 AM
4 AM EST Advisory...oops

This is an excerpt from the 4AM EST-Saturday Advisory. It may answer some or all of the above question.~danielw

THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE GAMMA OR KEEP IT TRAPPED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS... WHICH SEEMS UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE VERTICALLY DEEP CIRCULATION NOTED IN THE 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA.

AS SUCH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFDL SOLUTION SINCE THAT MODEL MAINTAINS A DEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 120 HOURS.

SINCE SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS GAMMA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD... ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/190833.shtml

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Nov 19 2005 09:27 AM
Re: 4 AM EST Advisory...oops

This is another excerpt of the 4 AM Advisory. The words; Break, Weakness and Alley somewhat raise the threat level to me personally. I have highlighted those 3 words for emphasis~danielw

...UPPER-AIR DATA AT 00Z...
ALBEIT LIMITED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AREA EXCEPT FOR BELIZE...
INDICATE A BREAK IN THE 500 MB AND 400 MB RIDGE AXES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...YUCATAN CHANNEL... WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GAMMA IS ALSO BEGINNING TO APPEAR AT THE 700 MB LEVEL. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALONG 85W LONGITUDE AND THE MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD OPEN AN ALLEY
FOR GAMMA TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AFTER THAT... A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CURRENTLY OVER THE U.S. PLAINS STATES ARE FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO MERGE AND DEVELOP INTO A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HOURS.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW NORTH OF 20N LATITUDE BY 60-72 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GAMMA LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN CUBA... THE BAHAMAS... AND POSSIBLY SOUTH FLORIDA.

ralphfl
(Weather Master)
Sat Nov 19 2005 01:00 PM
Re: 4 AM EST Advisory...oops

you should also highlight the part that shows the track which now just about has it miss florida but for the keys and also cuba going over and then the forcast is for it to stay about the same strength maybe 5mph more..

If it had no rain a afternoon TS would be worse.

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Nov 19 2005 02:32 PM
Re: 4 AM EST Advisory...oops

I keep thinking (which is dangerous on a Saturday morning before 9am) that the NHC is not all that confident in the forecast. They haven't shifted it significantly since Gamma formed, but the dynamics may play out differently. Of course, that's why there is a cone and not (just) a series of dots with a black line connecting them.

The system has not significantly (or at all) intensified overnight, which is a good thing, and it may never get much stronger. In fact, the satellite presentation looks worse than 12 hours ago. I'm starting to think the storm won't make it to Florida (going south of there) and won't even survive into the Atlantic.

srsarner
(Registered User)
Sat Nov 19 2005 02:34 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

I believe your first post on Gamma is inaccurate. The NHC Caribbean analysis charts for the last week clearly show Gamma originated in the southwestern Caribbean not the northeast. At the same time TD 27 formed south of the USVI a second low formed north of eastern Panama. While TD 27 weakened and dissappeared from the charts the second low moved due west along the coast of Panama supported by a strong southerly flow from the Pacific. The second low finally turned northwest passing through Nicaragua and Honduras to emerge as TS Gamma. This is nearly identical to the path of Beta which formed directly over the Panama Canal during the last week of Oct.

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sat Nov 19 2005 03:01 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

Although it is a moot point since we now have 'Gamma', I believe that Clark's analysis is accurate. TD 27 became an open wave and was nudged west southwest by the strength of the Atlantic ridge over Florida a couple of days ago. The open wave then moved west just north of the north shore of South America. The secondary low - actually an upper level low - moved onshore as you described and weakened considerably. TD 27 closed off again and regenerated to the northeast of the weak secondary low - and quickly strengthened to tropical storm strength. The Navy (NRL) continued to monitor the remnants of 27 and reclassified it as a TD a few hours before NHC upgraded the system to a TS. Post analysis of satellite data supports this genesis.

To clarify another point of interesting discussion in this thread, a RECON Vortex Message is not required in order to upgrade a system to TS status. Upgrades are often made based on satellite wind data measurements - frequent examples are Cape Verde systems in the far eastern Atlantic that are upgraded to TD or TS status without the benefit of any RECON measurements.
Cheers,
ED

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Nov 19 2005 04:37 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

Post made to correct forum error.

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Sat Nov 19 2005 04:45 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

If Gamma stays on its course south of Fla., through the sraights any guess about the weathe rin Palm Beach County? We'll obviously be on the weaker wind side, but what about rain?

bobbutts
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Nov 19 2005 05:59 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

Hazardous weather outlook for S. FL
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?wa...Weather+Outlook
says:
Quote:


...TROPICAL STORM GAMMA COULD AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY...

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA, LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA, HAS
SOME POTENTIAL TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY. THE FUTURE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF GAMMA REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. EVEN IF
GAMMA DOES NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT SOUTH FLORIDA, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR SQUALLS TO CREATE GUSTY WINDS, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES ON MONDAY.



Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Sat Nov 19 2005 06:10 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

Just noticed a big southeast move from the GFDL on wunderground. Is this from the NHC finding the center southeast of where they thought? It looks like its closer the GFS, but it's still predicting a hurricane.

Old Sailor
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Nov 19 2005 06:37 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

Gamma shows a little stronger then 45 MPH see Recon Info..

628
URNT12 KNHC 191805
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/17:43:30Z
B. 16 deg 14 min N
085 deg 12 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 50 kt
E. 10 deg 076 nm
F. 039 deg 046 kt
G. 010 deg 077 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 19 C/ 212 m
J. 25 C/ 214 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 0427A GAMMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 46 KT NW QUAD 17:06:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
Dave

dave foster
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Nov 19 2005 06:47 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

Based upon the quoted coordinates Gamma's been heading SE at 15-18mph for the last 4 hours.

I think HNC have it all wrong at the moment if that is indeed the case?

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Sat Nov 19 2005 09:01 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

Seems that the NHC has substantailly shifted its track south and weaken Gamma. Can Fox News stop calling it a hurricane now? Also noticed that the weather channel is calling for much, much less rain in Palm Beach County (like less than an inch).

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Nov 19 2005 09:07 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

Great news about Gamma!Now let this be the last one,and enjoy the Holidays.

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Nov 19 2005 09:36 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

Well I always learn more from the ones that don't quite make it. I see your points...but it still seems they called it on wind and not much else, and could have called TD28 instead. The convection never wrapped completely around. But basically as you say, in for a penny, in for a pound, and we officially have Gamma. And something had to come of all that energy in the Carib the last week or so. What is going to happen now with the storm is much more interesting even than it's formation.

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Sat Nov 19 2005 09:46 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

MArgie-

I agree since it's not going to hit us.

Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Nov 19 2005 10:09 PM
Bye Bye Gamma

Goodbye Gamma and hopefully the 2005 season.

I'll agree it was a year for the record books. However does anyone else think that there were perhaps two or more storms that might not have been named in years past? Storms that barely barely met the qualifications
for a Tropical Storm.........

I guess it's something to ponder over a warm winter fire.


Happy Thanksgiving everyone.......and lets count our blessings....

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Sat Nov 19 2005 10:14 PM
Re: Bye Bye Gamma

If nothing else Dr. Gray was wrong he said there would be no tropical systems in November. We're getting some spotty heavy rain in S. Florida but it's out of the east (whew!!!!)

ralphfl
(Weather Master)
Sat Nov 19 2005 10:38 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

Quote:

Seems that the NHC has substantailly shifted its track south and weaken Gamma. Can Fox News stop calling it a hurricane now? Also noticed that the weather channel is calling for much, much less rain in Palm Beach County (like less than an inch).




You got to love Fox news when it comes to storms as they are the bigest wishcaster's around.

Anyway as said yesterday the squall line with the next front will be more of a event then this thing they call gamma. Also the track a few of us said yesterday seems to be playing out never mmaking it to Florida.

pincty
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Nov 20 2005 12:03 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

Exactly Ralph...at least we won't have to hear of anymore Tampa predictions until next summer.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Nov 20 2005 01:27 AM
Tropical Storm Classification

ED's post explained the upgrade of Tropical Depression to Tropical Storm. Present satellite technology and positioning allow TPC/NHC to classify and declassify Tropical Systems that would have been unobserved in past decades.
Gamma, is presently maintaining a Current Intensity (CI) of 3.0 AODT (Dvorak), from CIMSS, with winds estimated at 45kts and pressure estimated at 1000mb. However, the Raw Value has dropped from a 3.4 CI at 1945Z to a 1.9 CI at 0115Z.
The 'Final AODT Position' is estimated near the half-way point between the heaviest convection and the Honduran Coast.

I recall NHC stating yesterday, that the aircraft couldn't close of a Low. They used surface reports from near-storm locations of 45-60mph winds as additional evidence of a Tropical Storm.

Below are two examples of how a Low is "closed".


The "Delta" pattern is one of the flight that RECON utilizes to "close off" a Low. The storm may be entered at any of the 'turn points' and the remaining pattern is flown to close off the wind speed and direction.

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Sun Nov 20 2005 01:41 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Classification

They definitely used surface reports from the island of Roatan very near the center. Yesterday I sent a link of the personal weather station located there to the NHC and this morning I got a thank you email from Jack Beven. He really appreciated it and he was even going to find out more about that station to use it in the future.

good job, man. -HF

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Nov 20 2005 01:50 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Classification

I attempted to use that site for reference around 4 AM this morning. But it was offline.

It's online now and the graphs show that the winds began to drop off and the pressure began to rise around 1:30 AM this morning. There appears to be a slight disparity in the graphs and the maximums for today. Possibly due to a power failure or some database interruption.

http://63.245.92.231/Current/Current_custom.htm

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Nov 20 2005 02:18 AM
More points to ponder

The Low that is forecast to develop in the Eastern GMX is presently visible on satellite imagery.
Updating image here:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/EAST/SE/current_AVN.jpg

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Sun Nov 20 2005 02:44 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

The three day is out on sunsentinel.com. The track is much further south, nothing else posted yet.

Old Sailor
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Nov 20 2005 03:37 AM
Re: More points to ponder

Gamma seems to be acting like Wrong Way Lenny did a 3 years ago going from West to East. Who knows PR maybe under the gun.


Dave

Old age must be catching up with me,, Lenny 1999 not 3 yrs ago...

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Nov 20 2005 04:06 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

Thanks for posting that, Ed -- I was largely going with the NHC and their comments in the first advisory as Gamma, but the 850hPa vorticity product from UWisc-CIMSS confirms the analysis. The remnants of TD 27 pivoted around the northern edge of that SW Caribbean feature and redeveloped to the north of it in a region of diffluent flow aloft (winds spreading apart at upper levels) as the surface low to the south moved inland. It's much more clear-cut than, say, TD 10/Katrina earlier this season, albeit admittedly not as clear-cut as the remnants of TD 13/Lee.

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Nov 20 2005 04:10 AM
Re: Bye Bye Gamma

There's only one storm that really met that critera -- Lee, which lasted for all of one advisory as a tropical storm, earlier this season. Everything else is pretty clear-cut in my book. Gamma meets the criteria, too...closed-low, albeit being sheared, not atypical of a November tropical storm...recon, satellite, and surface confirmation of the wind field. It'll meet it's demise ahead of a vigorous system that will impact the northeast in a few days.

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Sun Nov 20 2005 03:17 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

We now have T.D. Gamma and going down or the count.

Time to buy Thanksgiving food, the electric should stay on.

HanKFranK
(User)
Sun Nov 20 2005 04:54 PM
95L

east altlantic hybrid type system is revving up this morning. it has a comma signature but a convective core, so the nrl folks put an invest out on it. nothing out of ssd yet. it's sort of pick-your-model with it right now... euro has it washing out in about a week, while gfs has it loitering out there under the nao-negative block for two weeks. it's lifting off right now in a baroclinic zone, but should be blocked and forced south next week. potential analog track may be peter of 2003. it's way the heck out there, though, so just a potential padding of the numbers, if it can develop tropical characteristics over marginal waters, from a non-tropical profile.
gamma has had all of its convection sheared away, and is meandering ahead of an oncoming frontal zone. it may be classified as a nonconvective low before the front gets to it. should wash out into a vorticity zone in the western caribbean in the next couple of days. the rain-noreaster in the gulf is already forming, and should sweep up the east coast without taking gamma.
looks like the 2005 threat is down to whatever can spin up a meager existence in the caribbean, and whatever else can linger in the central or eastern atlantic until it gets a tropical profile. we're essentially done, with the threat gamma was thought to pose friday having evaporated.
HF 1654z20november

Genesis
(Weather Guru)
Sun Nov 20 2005 07:32 PM
Re: 95L

We had to get all the way to the 20th before it happened though (the season basically died)

What a year. Certainly one not to be forgotten, although in terms of impact its not THAT much different than '04. Katrina skewed that so badly due to the levee failures and the devastation in MS which is STILL being underreported - unless you've been there you just can't imagine what reality is for that area.

I can only hope that next year, if its active, we have more recurves off the Atlantic coast (that don't hit!) rather than the westward-bias we've had for the last two. Here's looking for that Bermuda High to actually be over Bermuda next year...

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Sun Nov 20 2005 08:26 PM
Re: 95L

The prbolem with the storms this year is that that all formed inside of 50W so they were west of the Bermuda High. Anything the formed east of the high didn't make it here. I say lets hope for ice cubes in the Gulf and Carribean.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Nov 21 2005 12:32 AM
95L and GOM Low

Dr. Steve Lyons at TWC, gave 95L a bit more than an Honorable Mention around 8 EST this morning. He even went so far as to say it would probably be named "DELTA".

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2005 (excerpt~danielw)

...FARTHER E...A STRENGTHENING 1003 MB LOW IS NEAR 28N43W MOVING SLOWLY NE.
A NEARBY UPPER TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW A CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE LOW WITH UPPER DYNAMICS/LIFT ALREADY PRODUCING ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AND MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FROM 17N-29N BETWEEN 44W-50W NEAR AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS LOW WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS FOR A POSSIBLE TRANSITION TO A SUBTROPICAL STORM AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE IN THE MID-LATITUDE CENTRAL ATLC...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/210012.shtml?

Most of the NWS eyes are on the front moving through the MS valley and the GOM. Models have forecast a surface Low to develop in the GOM during the next 24hours. While Non-Tropical in nature (baroclinic), the low(s), are "forecast to deepen rapidly after passing Florida", and possibly create a snarl for Thanksgiving Travelers.
HPC mentioned Snow as far south as the Southern Appalachians.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfhsd.html

vineyardsaker
(Weather Guru)
Mon Nov 21 2005 12:32 AM
how about some predictions here?!

Do you think there is any chance for more named storms this season or are we truly done?

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Nov 21 2005 12:49 AM
9 Days and counting

I edited my post above while you were posting.

At least a chance of 1 named storm. Per the NHC Discussion excerpt. Possibly end the season with "DELTA".
With 9 days left in the Official 2005 Hurricane Season. And numerous Cold Fronts moving through the Continental US, I personally think we are near or at the end. However, sea temperatures in the Caribbean are Still warm enough to sustain a Tropical System. The Westerly and Southwesterly shear is more prominant in the W Caribbean making conditions less favorable for intensification of any system that might develop. As we have seen with GAMMA.

edit-Clark, ED and Hank are much more qualified to answer this question~danielw

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Mon Nov 21 2005 01:43 AM
Re: how about some predictions here?!

Nothing really stands out tropically for imminent development. Conditions are pretty hostile across much of the favored regions for tropical development this time of year.

Invest 95L, currently a surface reflection of an upper-level trough -- the one that was around that sheared TD 27 well before it became Gamma, I believe -- will have a shot in a few days. The pattern is about to become a bit blocky over the central Atlantic, causing this feature to become trapped. Most models are showing some development of the feature as it pinwheels in a clockwise loop -- NE, then south and southwest -- over the next few days, gradually decaying toward the end of the period.

Cyclone phase diagrams from each of the major global models suggest at least some warm-core transition in the low levels over the next few days with some potential growth of that warm core into the upper levels (e.g. completing tropical transition). But, generally coincident with that growth, we get decay over unfavorable surface conditions (waters too cool). If things pan out, we might well see a subtropical cyclone out of it with a fair shot at a tropical cyclone in the next few days. It'll be one to watch into next week, certainly longer than Gamma will be around.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Nov 21 2005 03:54 AM
GAMMA...Gone

From the 10PM EST Advisory.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2005

GAMMA CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...BUT
ALSO CONTINUES TO LACK ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. THUS THE SYSTEM
NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ADVISORIES ARE
BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.

bold emphasis added~danielw

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Mon Nov 21 2005 01:39 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

If 2006 is as bad as 2005 do they use the same Greek letters again or do they start further up?

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Mon Nov 21 2005 02:43 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

They would start with Alpha once again, as far as anyone knows. The possibility of another season next year quite like this season's is pretty remote, however.

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Mon Nov 21 2005 03:02 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

That's what they said about 2004 too.

Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Mon Nov 21 2005 03:04 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

95L is on NRL; we may have subtropical storm Delta later today if it continues to develop--it is initialized, still as an invest, at 45 mph and 992 mb

95L

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Mon Nov 21 2005 04:13 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

Quote:

They would start with Alpha once again, as far as anyone knows. The possibility of another season next year quite like this season's is pretty remote, however.

Clark,didn't they say that after 2004?I believe what most of the experts say,10-15 more years of this.

Hurricane Dad
(Registered User)
Mon Nov 21 2005 04:18 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

What if one of the Greek storms meet the criteria for name retirement. Has anybody officially considered that?

Psyber
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Nov 21 2005 04:36 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

Quote:

They would start with Alpha once again, as far as anyone knows. The possibility of another season next year quite like this season's is pretty remote, however.



I dunno clark, to quantify that I think you have to look at what is causing the last couple years to be mega-years...global warming. Whether the warming trend is caused by greenhouse gasses or by being on the upturn of the 10,000 year global warm is up to the scientists(I agree with the former as well as the latter)

There is no sign that next year is going to be any cooler and if it follows the trend, the waters are going to be even warmer next year.

My personal thinking is that we not only reached the bar(alphabet), we raised it to a point where you need to have a more credible indexing system of tracking storms. Alpha/Beta/Gamma aren't going to cut it anymore and were only there before because it seemed ludicrous that we were going to need to use them very often.

Perhaps dual named storms are needed to denote how seriously crazy a season was? Alphonse Anderson, Bernadette Beckie etc... Perhaps name them something in the order of A05-2, B05-2. Or even name them Alpha-05, Beta-05...all I know is that it's only a matter of time before a Cat-4/5 Greek alphabeted storm is going to truck ashore. Lets pray it's not next year...

Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Mon Nov 21 2005 04:36 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

i heard somewhere, possibly on the weather channel, that if a greek name is retired, it will simply be skipped the next time that the greek names are used

example: if Beta is retired, and we have 23 storms again, 22 will be Alpha and 23 will be Gamma

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Mon Nov 21 2005 05:14 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

The record amount of stroms in the Pacific Basin was 39 (as per weather channel); let's hope never in the Atlantic.

Tak
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Nov 21 2005 05:20 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

Before you get reved up on "global warming" go to the 2005 Storm Forum under the topic: Hurricane Politics. Follow HankFranks link to Dr. Gray's testimony.
Then go to http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Responses/emanuel_comments.pdf and http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Responses/webster_comments.pdf. For more of Dr. Gray's observations regarding this topic.

HanKFranK
(User)
Mon Nov 21 2005 05:38 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

yeah, there are some serious questions about just smacking the global warming label on everything bad that happens. folks that make up the tropical weather community generally *don't* subscribe to global warming as the answer for the last couple of years. they aren't really unprecedented either in terms of back to back bad seasons (check 1886-1887, 1932-1933, 1954-1955). factor in that we undoubtedly missed some storms in the official record that far back, and they could easily match the last couple of years' counts. people who blame global warming on every weather disaster have an agenda... which is a whole different can of worms.
was just glancing around the basin, noticed that the little area of disturbed weather that'd been clinging to the colombian coast the last couple of days is seaworthy now, and has a little bit of convection/rotation associated with it. a lot of the region looks to be fairly stable and the shear profile is only mediocre, so i wouldn't expect much of anything. all the same, there it is, looking slightly alive.
95L may be more of the real deal as far as a developed system goes. should loop back to the south back towards the tropics later this week, perhaps losing its frontal profile and developing a warm core. clark explained the process better than i could earlier (he is training to be the authority on ET transition, after all).
gamma's remnant is fairly vigorous... and the post analysis should track the remnant low for a day or two after the official unchristening of the storm.
HF 1738z21november

*don't*, yeah, that's what i meant -HF

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Mon Nov 21 2005 07:13 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

Think HF meant to say that "folks that make up the tropical weather community generally don't subscribe to global warming as the answer for the last couple of years." There are much more likely explanations for the past two seasons than the blanket "global warming" theory -- after all, activity is down in the Pacific basins as a whole (near-normal out west, below normal in the east); global warming isn't a localized phenomenon. The reasoning behind the past two seasons follows from a favorable phase of the so-called Pacific Decadal Oscillation (a reflection of the 30 year cycle Dr. Gray and others are always talking about) coupled with a favorable thermohaline circulation (ocean water/energy transport) across the North Atlantic. We've seen this in the past and we'll see it again in the future; further, there is a big problem in placing the past two years historically in context for all of the reasons HF mentioned. Statistically, a season of 21+ storms is not all that common, no matter the limitations in the dataset, and we just aren't likely to see it again next year. Above average? Sure.

As for lists -- there is no contingency for retiring Greek alphabet-named storms at the NHC, this coming directly from the horses' mouth. If such a situation comes about, they will make their policy then. Until then, we really don't know what'll happen -- because they don't either. The same holds for reusing the list again next year; unless there is a big reason to start with another name than Alpha, they probably won't.

Psyber
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Nov 21 2005 07:31 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

I agree hank, but i'm also not one of those people who are quick to UNSMACK the title of human caused global warming on what we've seen are some pretty significant changes in the global climate in the last 20 years. I'm still waiting on the results of the science that proves that one of the biggest causes of climate change ever recorded including sediment dating(short of ice age causing meteor strikes) isn't from a bunch of shortsighted fossil fuel sucking lifeforms...

Even so, like hurricane forcasting, do we wait until 24-48 hours before the actual event is dire before we try to take steps which might impact the possible outcome if the steps are overall beneficial no matter if people are in the direct path? No...because by then it's too late. The science behind human caused global warming makes sense, the only thing up in the air is the actual timeline/scope of what we're physically causing.

Even as an extremely junior meteorologist, i'm terrified to think what our hurricane/tornado seasons will be like if some of the doomsayers predicting net 5-10 degree southern oceanic temperature changes over the next couple decades are right.

I just got a private message complimenting my signature. When did accuweather predict the end of the season this year? End of October? Sometimes, i think they use the old bearfat in the mason jar for their longterm forcasting...and don't even get me started on this seasons unbridled attacks on the NHC.

How many did they miss? 4 or is it 5 now? Looks like 95L (possible Delta) is spinning up a bit...

i'm not sure what 'accuweather' said. they've got several meteorologists who speak up on such issues, and i can't speak for any of them. it's not a mystery that public and private sector forecasters don't agree on things. neither side is right all of the time. -HF

Katie
(Weather Guru)
Mon Nov 21 2005 08:28 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

(off topic post deleted)

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Mon Nov 21 2005 10:41 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

Psyber -- no complaints here on your claims about global warming in your most recent post. We know warming is going on, we just don't know our contributions to it all, if any substantial ones. It's when global warming is used to explain everything that occurs in the tropics and elsewhere that the meteorological community goes on the prowl, something quite warranted in my view.

We also don't know a lot about all of the factors involved in our climate system and have only crude approximations for a lot of what goes on. There is sensitivity to the initial conditions, sensitivity to the model parameterizations used, and sensitivity to just about anything you can think of -- as I've learned with just short-term weather modeling, you can create just about anything you want with a computer model. I don't disagree that there's something out there...it's just not the end-all for the entire field and it reflects the sad state of meteorological funding that all money is going into climate change research and not actually advancing the science. (And don't get me started on hurricane modification projects getting $80m in funding from Congress while the Hurricane Research Division continually gets denied for extra funding on top of the ~$5m that barely sustains the complex.)

This is a debate better served for another time and another forum here on the website, though. For now, it's time to start looking toward 95L's way out in the central Atlantic as a fairly substantial subtropical cyclone. Model projections show it completing tropical transition sometime early tomorrow; knowing that the NHC is looking at the progs and watching satellite, it's probably only a matter of time before we have at least a subtropical cyclone on our hands -- Delta.

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Mon Nov 21 2005 10:53 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

Clark-

Why a subtropical and not tropical cyclone? If it goes south does it turn into a tropical cyclone?

typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Tue Nov 22 2005 12:56 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

Quote:

Clark-

Why a subtropical and not tropical cyclone? If it goes south does it turn into a tropical cyclone?



...If I may...
- Subtropical lows are lows that carry both tropical and extra-tropical characteristics; these include a warm core in the lower levels, and cold core aloft.
- Tropical lows are strictly fueled by latent heat release and convective processes and therefore, are warm core from lower levels through the vertical depth of the system.

This system's origin was originally the southern aspect of a mid-latitude trough that bifurcated and pulled away toward the SW, as the trough was lifting out in the vicinity. At the instant of this sudden "cut-off" scenario, it was a cold core system left to spiral down in the vicinity. But the waters there are still mild to warm, but not quite 26C, but close.. Provided conditions are right, you really do not actually have to have the water temperatures be ideally 26C or higher; proven by the event in the far eastern Atlantic in recent times.

It is possible, that given time, it will acquire subtropical characteristics (if it hasn't already) and be subsequently named, because the surround environment is actually pretty good, featuring variable flow at U/A, and the oceanic heat content in the area is at least sufficient for slow development - provided the surrounding environment remains non-hostile. If the system assumes a S drift/motion, its chances would only get better for encountering warmer waters still... But, I haven't actually analyzed the SST out there so much of this latter thinking is based on climatological understanding alone.

typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Tue Nov 22 2005 01:35 AM
Global Warming and weather events..

..The AMO is an SST index (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) with a periodicity of 65-80 years, and a variance defined by an average value of about 1/2 a degree C. This is important because we have since 1990 been, as expected, on the curve toward the + side of neutral - meaning the warm phase has begun. The connection this normal and expected interval of warm SST has to the increase in hurricane frequency/intensities needs to be defined and parameterized first before any conclusions could possibly acquire veracity.

Clark is dead right when he intimates that you cannot assume the current apparent augmentation in both frequencies and intensities are due outrightly to Global Warming - though I have noticed that some media sources are taking more liberties with that assumption, as though it is becoming theory somehow by proxy or something....because for one reason among many, the current activity would likely have taken place in the absence of the last 30 years of Global numbers - or at least, the contrary has to be proven.

Further complicating the matters is that from a purely physical point of view, (and physical processes drive the atmosphere to begin with ) the gradients must be increased in coupled system to actually create the greater potential energy, and subsequent intensity, because potential energy is defined by dipolar gradient. If everyone is hot, that does not mean the gradients are sufficiently increased in the means, supplying storm intensities in general. If those gradients can be defined, this concern is compensated for, but I haven't really seen much evidence to support the gradients them selves being augmented through all of this... All the data that I have seen suggests that the Polar regions are warming just as smartly as the tropical regions, and therefore, the gradient is not any more sufficiently larger than a century ago, when both the tropics and the polar regions were cooler.. In other words, they're increasing in tandem (excuse the pun) in greater degree. Nor does there to appear to be an overwhelming gradient in the vertical in general - maybe some, but there's upper tropospheric indices as well....and around and around we go.

We turn on the television and radio every morning with our cup of joe and a donut and the first thing we hear is a Fox spun news story garnering hysteria over a 11 deaths from a freak November tornado outbreak... Fact of the matter is, there is a climatological precidents for a slight increase in tornado activity in the autumn, just prior to the seasonal flux. And....Holy Moly, a week later we have a +PNA pattern with a -6SD sub-polar vortex defining its core; it is no coincidence that we had these "freak" events last week because it was a super-duper transition period. There are other disasterous autumn twister events however, spanning decades...

Moreover, the hurricane frequency is entirely expected (intensity is an on-going debate), and fits nicely along expectation; which will likely also continue for ~ 1.5 decades (doesn't mean we're going to have 22 this or that every year...just that the atm is teleconnected to being conditioned for higher than normal activity. ) This periodicity in hurricane frequency has a time-span of about 20-30 years.

It is entirely possible that the intensity aspect of this expected frequency shift is because of compounding factors...If the AMO is increasing at its greatest rate during the next 3 decades, and in the first half of that 3 decades, we are also in the positive phase of hurricane frequencies, the latter may feed off the former... and it wouldn't have to be fore Global Warming. Just a supposition..

Now, having said all that...Yes, Global Warming is real.

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Tue Nov 22 2005 02:11 AM
Clarifications

As Clark mentioned, before we get cranked up again on the Global Warming issue, it really belongs in the Hurricane Ask/Tell Forum, not here. Most tropical mets do not subscribe to the global warming theory as a basis for increased tropical cyclone activity - myself included.

Regarding seasonal activity, I doubt that we will see a season as active as 2005 for another 50 years - perhaps another 100 years (and you can remind me of that next year ).

Cheers,
ED

HanKFranK
(User)
Tue Nov 22 2005 02:37 AM
Re: Global Warming and weather events..

95L: nothing new. it's crested it's nne movement, and a large block to the north should depress its track southward from here. the classification of a subtropical system is about the most inconsistently done duty of the nhc. pretty much every subtropical system in the last few years has been post-analyzed to an earlier point than when it was classified... frequently a tropical system that transitioned from an extratropical one will have a subtropical phase added in for when the satellite analysis dvorak #s were saying 'subtropical' and the nhc was twiddling its thumbs, mentioning the systems in outlooks, waiting for an unalienable signal that the storm was a tropical cyclone... like an eye. 95L is part of the way there. if it goes the whole way, it'll be interesting to see how the nhc goes about classifying it.
global warming: yes, its real. so is global cooling. we're in an interglacial phase right now. personally i don't care if it gets warmer as long as the result isn't a glacial meltwater slowing of the north atlantic downwelling and that thermohaline conveyor shutdown that was so fakely portrayed on the day after tomorrow. if they're growing corn in northern quebec in 200 years... great. better than having half a mile of ice sitting on chicago, or spruce trees in north florida. twenty thousand years ago, that was the case.
forecast 2006: check over in the forum. i'm putting up an early 2006 prediction page. probably soon ed or i will put up the verification for the fall 2004 and may 2005 predictions for this season that we made for fun... to see how everybody fared with this really outlandishly active season. everyone underpredicted, of course.
HF 0237z22november

ltpat228
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Nov 22 2005 02:38 AM
Re: Global Warming and weather events..

(post deleted. Previous post with same content was placed in the Graveyard because the image on the link is over 24 hours old. If the post was associated with the global warming discussion, re-post it in the Hurricane Ask/Tell Forum. Please do not re-post something that has been corrected by a site official.)

Note that the satellite image has a date/time of 21/0000Z - it is currently 22/0300Z, i.e., the image is 27 hours old. Do not repost this image again.

Doombot!
(Weather Guru)
Tue Nov 22 2005 05:40 AM
A little hint....



Clark
(Meteorologist)
Tue Nov 22 2005 06:39 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras

typhoon_tip and HF pretty much hit the nail on the head regarding 95L out there and subtropical vs. tropical cyclones, so I'll only add a few tidbits.

You can get a lower-level warm core (like you see in a tropical system) when you have convection firing near the center of a cold-core system. More often than not, this convection is a response to the process of gathering heat and moisture from the ocean's surface going, which can lead to the development of this lower-level warm core. (Note that convection does not directly provide the heating for this, though!) If it goes on for long enough given other favorable conditions, you can get a subtropical cyclone out of it.

If the convection persists, the inner core gets going (maximum winds move inward toward the center of the storm rather than found well removed from it), and underlying conditions are still favorable, you can get an upward growth of this warm core into the upper levels. This is what brings about "tropical transition" and the development of a tropical cyclone.

(If any of this is too technical/scientific, please send me a message and I'll try to clarify.)

The identification of subtropical cyclones and tropical cyclones growing out of extratropical systems has really taken off in the past few years, largely in response to having someone at the NHC really keen on those hybrid-type of storms (Jack Beven) and at least partially in response to the cyclone phase space (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/) that helps identify those storms with a fair degree of accuracy. You'll probably see some subtropical phase added to Vince in the final report and, if this develops, probably here too.

The satellite appearance of 95L continues to improve, with convection trying to wrap around the southeast side of the storm (and, more importantly, persist). QuikSCAT wind fields suggest a rather broad wind field, albeit one with maximum winds relatively close to the center of circulation. Not all of the 00z model guidance is in, but the available guidance (Canadian and UKMET) show that the system is completing tropical transition now and has had a shallow warm core for some time now. This agrees well with what the other models were showing in terms of forecast evolution earlier today. (Note that this discussion follows from the diagrams at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/.) I imagine the NHC is waiting for a little bit more separation from the trough to the north of the storm before pulling the trigger on this one; it's likely only a matter of time before they do so. It'll probably start as a subtropical storm before becoming a tropical storm -- Delta -- shortly thereafter. We'll see what actually pans out over the next day or two.

HanKFranK
(User)
Tue Nov 22 2005 03:35 PM
delta time...

the 95L hybrid low is starting to peel back sw as a large high blocks it to the north. it's very much occluded from the frontal trough it has been attached to, but probably not fully detached at this time. ssd has rated it a st2.5, which agrees well with the 40kt/988mb tag that nrl has on it. nhc will of course issue another advisory saying 'it appears to be acquiring tropical characteristics' at 11:30, but if this keeps up, we'll have a post-analysis track starting subtropical today. unless the system has all its convection sheared off or never detaches from the frontal trough still draped around its ne side... the nhc will very likely start issuing advisories on it tomorrow.
almost time for a new thread. whoever puts it up, could you throw in a plug to the forecast challenge 2006? gotta go to class...
HF 1535z22november

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Tue Nov 22 2005 05:21 PM
Re: delta time...

Hello all I've been too busy to post the last couple days. Will definitely take the time to review all the information posted about Gamma. I still feel that was a very tenuous call, but you sold me on the circulation; however out of all the storms of this year, the language that was used in the advisories and discussions definitely emphasized its poor organization, more than any other storm I've seen. So I'm assuming that call may have been made in part due to necessity (I prefer to look at it that way rather than to say it was political), since it was just offshore.

Weird to see that the circulation (which essentially was the same one from 93L) rolled back down the coastline of Nicaragua.

I'm seeing low or mid level circulation north of Panama/Columbia (at about 11N77W).


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