MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 05:56 PM |
Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the Southwest
|
5:30 PM Update
Tropical Storm Fay's 5PM Forecast still take it into the Southwestern coast of Florida as a Strong Tropical Storm or minimal hurricane, there remains some deviation on exactly where and how strong, but the bottom line is that tonight and tomorrow will be nasty here in Florida, late tomorrow afternoon will the "worst" for Central Florida.
It appears that Fay is fighting some shear and dry air, and that is keeping it from strengthening too much, but Fay is still gaining strength.
We have a few discussion threads going on Fay, if you would like to discuss Fay's possible impact on Florida, check out here, if you want to let people what you think, or have a gut feeling, or want to shoot the breeze on Fay do that in the Fay forecast Lounge Want to let us know about conditions in your area, any closings, notices, or evacuations, let pass it along in this area. This is done to attempt more order during the flood of information (both good and bad) that will come over the next few days. The main comments are usually for discussion of what the storm is doing now, or will likely be short term.
Elsewhere in the tropics a wave in the central Atlantic (94L) may become a depression in the next few days.
Original Update
Tropical Storm Fay is gaining strength approaching the Florida Peninsula, it is now approaching the Keys.
Please pay attention to local media and officials in your area as the storm approaches. As of 2PM Fay is still a Tropical Storm. For state information, check out the local NWS advisories on the top of the main page and Floridadisaster.org.
HCW Level 3 Radar Recording of Fay
Mark Sudduth over at HurricaneTrack is out in Southwest Florida now, tracking the storm in his vehicle.[/url]
More to come soon...
General Fay Related Links:
Southwest Florida Webcams / hurricanecity
Florida Emergency Management / floridadisaster.org
Cuban Radar Flhurricane Recording of Cuban Mosaic radar
Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
{{radarlink|tbw|Tampa Bay, FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|byx|Key West, FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|amx|Miami FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|amx|Melbourne FL Radar}}
Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL (Naples)
Lee County, FL (Ft. Myers)
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL (St. Petersburg)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Paso County, FL
Hernando County, FL
Citrus County, FL
Levy County, FL
Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh
Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
St. Petersburg Times (Tampabay.com)
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Palm Beach Post
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)
Storm Animation of what a storm passing just north of Tampa would do to Tampa Bay
Dominican Republic Radar (Flhurricane Recording/Loop of this Radar)
{{StormCarib}}
Fay plotted on Google Map
{{StormLinks|Fay|06|6|2008|1|Fay}}
{{StormLinks|94L|94|7|2008|2|Wave 94L}}
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 07:03 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
Hey all I've done all I can for now in trying to get the site back running again. Likely we'll need replacement hardware to fix it longer term, but it should hold for now.
We did hit a new record for concurrent users today, 2780.
Fay looks like it's still on track to give us a good dose of rain and some wind throughout tomorrow, it still may become a minimal hurricane before landfall in Southwestern Florida.
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 07:17 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
Satellite imagery shows Fay is becoming somewhat better organised, with a possible CDO developing over the LLCC and a continued drop in pressure - down to 1001mb according to Recon. As the worst of the conditions are northeast of the centre much of the southern Florida peninsula look set to take quite a pasting, even though she is still just a Tropical Storm. Given the drop in pressure and the improvement in organisation we will probably be looking at Hurricane Fay within the next 6 to 9 hours.
| Geoff |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 07:31 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
Is it just me, or does it look like Fay is moving west? The KW Radar loop sure makes a case for it. I hope it's just a slight bobble...
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 08:05 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
She must have wobbled more to the west as she made landfall over Key West at 300EDT. Latest recon shows pressure down to 999mb, with the CDO becoming more defined too. Hurricane Fay soon i think!
| bradrd |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 08:12 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
That is not a wobble it is the storm building on the west side.I thought even a met would know that.Hope it turns soon to the east and gets from the gulf
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 08:17 PM |
|
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
deleted
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 08:18 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
i was a little shocked, NHC called landfall that early over key west... I see recon may have hit a 998mb just to the SW of key west by about 10 miles.... will see in a bit when dropsonde data comes in. The area of lowest pressure i think... was near 24.37N 81.85W I have noticed now that Fay appears to be dropping about 1mb an hour now?
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 08:19 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
At 200pm the centre was 20 miles SE of Key West, moving NNW at 13 mph. To landfall over Key West the centre would have had to move NW. This would indicate a wobble to the west, in part due to the improving organisation on that side of the circulation.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 08:20 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
Winds went calm at Key West at the reported time of landfall, but since then, the winds have been out of the ESE, which would normally indicate that the center is still somewhere to the SW. Also, the pressure at the station dropped from 1001.3 mb at the time of reported landfall (3 pm EDT) to 999.3 mb an hour later. Overall, the center still seems to be somewhat broad and diffuse, which should prevent any rapid intensification for the near future, though some modest intensification seems to be underway.
| West FL Jess |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 08:21 PM |
|
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
it appears as though some of the models are moving a touch West and then have Fay heading back into the Gulf...any thoughts on this? I think the 5PM Advisory might be a little more West then before.
~jess~
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 09:42 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
They corrected the landfall issue in the 5:00 discussion. Currently the center is more or less over Key West (it wasn't before). Pressure at Key West and Sand Key is just over 998, however the winds have dropped a bit. Fay is strengthening as predicted. The CDO is continuing to expand. Winds should pick up in response to the pressure drop.
Bill
| B_from_NC |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 09:43 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
What an amazing shot of Fay... Link
She is shooting straight up into the sky. This view in 3-d would be incredible. Not too often you get to see the base of the storm spinning along with the cloud tops.
She kinda looks like a top right now with a slight wobble as well...
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 09:51 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
Just a site update, was able to track down one cause of the trouble today, and fixed it, now will be monitoring if it was the only problem. I do know there is some hardware replacement involved for the future, but we've rigged the site now to use some backup systems. Hopefully now I can spend more time watching Fay itself rather than the servers.
Thanks to the donators for the help in keeping it all going.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 10:03 PM |
|
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
It certainly looks like the convection is trying to wrap around the center in the latest vis sat images. I'm not expecting too much of an impact in the Tampa Bay area, but I'm also keeping in mind that any slight track wobble will mean big local changes.
Welcome back to the interwebs, CFHC!
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 10:09 PM |
|
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
Mike-- I will personally spearhead a fund riser for new equipment when the dust clears from this storm - feel lost when this site is down.
Anyway, amazing amount of energy for a tropical storm. We have been getting slammed all day on the east coast and the storm is still a long way off. Fay is definately strengthening and am debating whether to put shutters up before dark just to be safe--
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 10:12 PM |
|
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
Quote:
It certainly looks like the convection is trying to wrap around the center in the latest vis sat images. I'm not expecting too much of an impact in the Tampa Bay area, but I'm also keeping in mind that any slight track wobble will mean big local changes.
Welcome back to the interwebs, CFHC!
Why does it keep going down? I'll fund raise for a new server too lol
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 10:18 PM |
|
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
She is really blowing up on the west side, pressure is still dropping in Cudjoe Key ( http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=MC0925 ) which surprised me as I thought the center had already cleared Key West. She just might make it to hurricane status after all.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 10:20 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
These weaker storms can be nasty, especially away from the center. Watch those squalls coming in from the water. Small, fast moving tornadoes are a concern with these types of systems when they interact with land.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 10:21 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
Thats a pressure of 996.9 there and they are not even in the center right now.
Also...looking at KW radar it shows the center moving almost DUE EAST????? That would explain lower pressure east of Key West
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 10:25 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
Not sure where to post this, but this is a current webcam video of Fay. Feel free to move it where ever it belongs.
http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080818/WEATHER01/80818109/1075
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 10:26 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
Also, the outflow looks to be improving in the NW quadrant. I don't see much forward movement either on Key West radar nor on the vis floater loop.
| smorse22 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 10:29 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
Do you see Fay moving westward at all?
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 10:31 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
I edited my earlier post to say I believe its taking a jog to the east which supports the pressure falls on the islands to the east of Key West. This may be temporary, but I can see it moving east
| zacker20 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 10:31 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
Yes, the IR satellite clearly shows the storm building back to the west. This is goign to be an interesting system to track throughout the evening. It is VERY possible that the storm could shift back to the west.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 10:31 PM |
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
I have to agree with Michael, in that I am not seeing any motion per satellite or radar. Must be temporary in that we all know that steering currents are a little fuzzy at the moment, but certainly not without cause for a net northerly component. Given the reported lowering of surface pressure, I think the forward motion has been temporarily halted due to Fay's deepening. I would imagine a slow Northward motion to commence by 8:00 or 9:00pm this evening. If not, than things will certainly get a bit more dicey this evening for all of S. Florida and the Keys.
| zacker20 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 10:35 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
weathernet,
Check the NOAA IR satellite... There is a lot of convection building to the west.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 10:35 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
I would have to agree with this statement also, on the fact that Fay is set to land in Fort Myers, Florida at 12:00am
| metwannabe |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 10:35 PM |
|
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
It could be another "wobble" but last several radar loops looks as if Fay is taking on more of an eastward component.
As many have already posted the organization is definately much improved also. Part of NHC discussion mentioned that "THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS CONTRACTED TO ABOUT 30 N MI". Smaller centers often times means potential for intensification. Don't think enough time for rapid intensification but she is certainly getting stronger and would not let my guard down.
| vineyardsaker |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 10:37 PM |
|
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
Quote:
I have to agree with Michael, in that I am not seeing any motion per satellite or radar.
Could Fay load up a lot more energy from the warm water and make landfall as a Cat2+ or more or is too late in the game for that?
| smorse22 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 10:41 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
From this link doesn't it look like it's moving to the west?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
| zacker20 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 10:43 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
Quote:
It could be another "wobble" but last several radar loops looks as if Fay is taking on more of an eastward component.
The Key West radar is not conclusive. What you have to look at is the IR Satellite... Earlier today, the storm was very disorganized and broad. The IR satellite picture is showing a deepening of convection on the western side and it is getting symmetrical. Do not focus on the convection to the eastern side, that has been sheared off and is broken away from the COC. The new focus is the blowup of convection on the western side. There could also be a new formation of COC... Zoom in on the western convection and you will definitely see a spinning feature in the center. I don't believe the center is located at Key West. If you compare the Forecast points with the current movement over the past few hours, it is definitely trending more to the west.
We will have to wait and see till 8 pm if this is actually considered a trend but I am betting the motion is more to the NW, not NNW.
| zacker20 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 10:45 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
Quote:
From this link doesn't it look like it's moving to the west?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
Yes. It definitely does. The 8pm advisory could be updated to reflect a more northwesterly motion.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 10:51 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
I will say the center I saw moving east is not very easy to track in the last couple of frames, and the convection has whipped around (for lack of a better term) the west side. I thought I was seeing another center earlier but lost it so I did not mention it
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 10:53 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
Looked at the radar, IR, WV, and more importantly visible, there is a thunderstorm blowup on the west side, but the center is still pretty much on track or a hair east of what the NHC's forecast track has.
Another radar view: HCW Level 3 Radar Recording of Fay (may be a little erratic, but should be up most of the time) The Bright red line indicates the NHC's forecast track.
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 11:07 PM |
|
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
Yeah I think there will be a big shift at 8 or 11.
http://www.pdfamily.com/weather/buoy/FLbuoy.php
The winds are cranken at the upper keys.
Molasses Creek:
Wind Speed (WSPD): 39 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 44 kts
Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.3 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.6 °F
Sumbraro Key
Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 170 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 41 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 48 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.57 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.5 °F
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 11:08 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
IR can be deceiving. Look at the visible, still a clear rotation just SW of Key West. And it does look like the low level circulation has drifted east just a bit. Fay does look like it has slowed considerably. Very interesting storm to track, I just wish I wasn't so close to it!
Bill
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 11:11 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
I think what I was seeing is one of the vorticities that the NHC mentioned at 5p. When I look at the loop Mike provided it looks more like that is the case. It is rotating around something to the west and seemed to be moving east now north
| kromdog |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 11:17 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
Certainly a pump up in activity on the west side
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 11:27 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
Does anyone notice the same thing I do that at around 21 it goes out a little and then comes back in?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html
| metwannabe |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 11:28 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
I agree the center or atleast what appeared to me to be moving east has become very difficult to locate. Could very well have been one of the vorticies rotating around.
Still do not see any movement to the west, IR Sat is only showing convection building west, not actually moving that direction. I too think if anything it has slowed quiet a bit, due to some intensification or possible center reforming? Not sure.
One thing for certain, it will be interesting to see what happens and has to be unnerving for all of you in central/southern Fl.
| cate |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 11:31 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
Weather Channel said a short time ago that she was "trapped" and would probably hit FL around Everglades City.
| smorse22 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 11:33 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
What does that mean?
| rayboat |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 11:34 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
Unnerving would be a catagory 2-5 deadheading your way! But always be aware and stay safe!
| zacker20 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 11:37 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
Spoke too soon on the westward movement. Turns out I was completely wrong. The CENTER has tracked more to the northeast and it looks like it will make landfall in a few hours just south of Naples. This is good news for Central Florida - we will barely be feeling any affects from this storm at all if this track verifies. South Florida will bare the brunt of the system.
There will be a dramatic change in the upcoming advisories from the NHC. Stay tuned.
| cate |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 11:38 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
Quote:
What does that mean?
I have no idea. Just said it didn't look like it would go westerly enough to go around SoFL north to Naples. I went thru the eyes of Frances, Jeanne, and Wilma, and this better not be another Wilma!
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 11:38 PM |
|
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
Ed Rappaport has been on Miami TV all evening. Says there are mixed signals. Radar looks like it wrapped a bit and has more on all sides but he also says it looks like it's falling apart. And, there are multiple vortexes (has always had those) not sure what the big difference is now vs the way it has always been.
Also seems several models have confirmed the GFS loop out and in.
Figures that it will continue to be hard to forecast.
Hasn't been much of a wind event except for squalls. Still looks to me like it's barely moving or maybe it will relocate.
Rain is very cold, feels more like a cold front that a tropical storm in ways Does that mean anything? I don't know but surprised me.
| zacker20 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 11:46 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
Guys look at the Key West radar. Fay is about to make landfall south of the Everglades!
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=byx&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 11:47 PM |
| Attachment |
|
|
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
well see the NHC 5pm discussion caught was i was thinking/writing early in post #82074
... i just didn't really go into detail that a mesoscale feature was spinning around toward key west. Plus with the help of two recons at the time and level II super res. data from Key West... i could tell the "coc" was still off shore at 3pm EDT... and the meso was clearly visible in the new super resolution data.The big thing that caught my eye this afternoon, is the contracting of winds to the center...and the large blow-up of convection to the northwest of the center... what i think was happening... like last night.. a mid level low fired up and got going... this time is appeared it was begining to "pull around" toward the surface center, which i think is the reason we saw Fay kinda slow down... wobble if you will... as the mid level center was trying to catch up with the surface center... with the help of RSO Vis oF Fay... i think it kinda shows what i'm talking about... notice how the storms expand out in all directions... very good outflow aloft... a little bit of shear to the west, but this is going to be a compact storm for right now and as it crosses over Florida. THE BIG QUESTION down the road is what happens after 60hrs...
Tonight's 00z runs will be interestingAttached is a image from Key West.. To me the surface center is Directly north of the Radar.. about 10-20 miles
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 11:49 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
Were getting the same here in regards to the rain. It feels very cold, as does the wind and overall temperature.
| West FL Jess |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 11:49 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
are there any mets on here that have an opinion or thought on the direction of Fay or landfall location?
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 11:50 PM |
|
|
Hurricane Fay
|
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
I don't know...
Last few frames looks like a possible eyes feature.
Here is the closest bouy I could fine:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=PLSF1&unit=E
29.68 inchs is that low enough pressure?
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 11:52 PM |
|
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
Chances are that the "cold" many may be feeling with Fay is coming from a few causes -
First, there is some significant dry air entrainment in the western and northwestern quadrants of the cyclone. This can result in some evaporational cooling, similar in a way to that which can also be perceived during a typical afternoon summertime thunderstorm.
Wind will always cool the skin.. and rain and wind even moreso.
Overcast skies for extended durations often make for much more of a different climate, even in a tropical cyclone, especially if it has been sunny lately.
The sense that Fay is a "cold" storm for a Tropical Cyclone is probably all related to these three main factors, and besides, in the end, "perception is reality."
| West FL Jess |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 11:53 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
it will be at least 6 hours from now....at least according to Lyons on TWC....
| zacker20 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 11:54 PM |
|
Landfall Timing
|
Six hours till when? Landfall? I am afraid he is mistaken - the storm is definitely trending more toward the northeast.
edit: I doubt Dr Lyons is mistaken. But he is Also using te same data we and NHC are using. Hmmm, that makes us all confused.~danielw
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 11:57 PM |
|
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
First, take a look at the 19:50 radar image of the center. It looks like it is really tightening up and I do not see a huge eaterley component. If anything, Fay is fairly stationary and maybe jogging a bit west now.
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Second, I have been through a couple of TS's, Charley, Frances, and whatever the two other ones that hit central Florida were called. I made the smae comment about the temperature and rain for those storms. We all hear that they are fueld by heat and I think we all think they are warm storms. That's not the case. It's a lot cooler in a TS or Hurricane than the usual hotter than heck Florida usual day.
| West FL Jess |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 11:58 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
yes I'm sorry landfall`
| zacker20 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 11:59 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
8 PM advisory is out from the NHC... The movement is now north. Should move northeast once it makes landfall. Tampa area looks to be out of the woods, most intense activity will be on the eastern side - there is barely anything on the western side.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 12:01 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
They were multiple centers, it could be clearly seen on radar about an hour ago: one center moved over Key West then flew off rather quickly to the ENE, while a second center currently appears to be forming to the NW. The previous center has created the famous comma shape that now runs thru Marathon in the middle Keys.
The "trap" they are talking about is visible on the water vapor loop, you can see the outflow is being blocked to the NW, as there is a strong line of dry air pushing against the system. This should limit Fay's western motion and keep her going north, so landfall around Naples sounds about right . I also think some of this dry air got sucked in as the huge blowup to west is not holding together or getting full wrapped up just yet... but its sure trying. Just starting to lose the eastern edge on the visible as the sun sets.
The wind in Cudjoe has switched to SSW and pressure is slowly being to inch up so Fay is moving away from the lower Keys and into Florida Bay. Its going to be a real close call regarding strength, a central core seems to be forming near the center of rotation so Cat 1 is looks more likely with every passing minute. Winds speeds at the surface are not very impressive and there are no weather stations till she reaches the SW coast so its a tough call.
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 12:06 AM |
|
|
Re: Hurricane Fay
|
29.68 no Thats not really low enough that is only 1005 millibars. Usually ill start looking for eye feature aroound 990 (29.23 inches) millibars or below. Pressure of the storm right now is 998 irene a strom i liken too for similarity right now in affects was 986 during crossing of southern penisula. Funny i read up on irene best track and it was a weak cat 1 with 80 mph winds at landfall with 986 pressure. the storm instead of weakening over florida actully came out stronger at 985 leaving jupiter to continue its intensification to 958 and 95knt winds as it bruhed the outerbanks.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 12:12 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
|
pressure in north miami beach:
29.62 in / 1002.9 hPa (Falling)
am asking mets who understand this better what is going on because it looks better, barometer seems low and banding on radar seems stronger
why has nhc decided now it's weakening
and please answer me ...did the ULL to finally die
because I can't see it on any imagery wv or visible..
i would think if it was gone it would explain the better presentation
???
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 12:13 AM |
|
|
Tampa Forecast
|
NHC has not removed Tampa from the Watches and Warnings. And they probably won't until Fay is north of Tampa.
Aviation forecast for Tampa Airport for tomorrow.
FM0800 05010G20KT P6SM -RA VCTS SCT015CB BKN035 OVC060
"From 4AM EDT wind NE 10kts gust to 20kts. Light rain and Thunderstorms in vicinity"
FM1400 02020G35KT 4SM RA SCT010 BKN025 OVC040 PROB30 1420
VRB30G50KT 1/2SM +RA SQ OVC010CB=
"From 10 AM EDT, wind NNE at 20kts gust to 35kts. Rain"
"From 10AM EDT to 4PM EDT. winds variable at 30kts with gusts to 50kts, 1/2 (0.5) mile visibility in heavy rain and squalls"
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 12:20 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Fay
|
looking at the available data... radar/sat/recon... think the mid level center.. around 11k to -18k feet that i have been watching is about almost over the top of the "surface" center... this could only mean intesification, IF the dry air does not preclude it from happening... but in the last 45mins on Key West Radar... there is a northern "wall" of banding around the coc showing up and getting that wrapping around appearence... right under those tall HOT Towers on IR sats. The next few hrs on radar will be very telling.
The last center fix was:
A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 23:36:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°57'N 81°51'W (24.95N 81.85W)
B. Center Fix Location: 27 miles (44 km) to the N (351°) from Key West, FL, USA.
and does anyone know why Kermit flew to and landed in New Orleans, LA. Is that the back-up site for KWBC/AOML/HRD operations, since Tampa may have been in the path? plan landed at the International Airport around 21:40:00Z.
Yep...when McDill is in the cone they move flight ops out of Tampa...they can stage a number of places, but NO was the closest location not in the path. JK
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 12:20 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Tampa Forecast
|
only 4 more hours until Fay is expected to have its first bands appear in Lee County. Mets here are saying that Fay will be directly over us at approx. 8:00am tomorrow. Her Barometric pressure remains the same as it did at 5pm. Fay is about 105 miles away from Naples, Florida now. What are the chances of her Strengthening from a TS to Cat 1? She seems to be deteriorating on Satellite, and the pressure remains the same. Do we still think Fay will even make a Cat 1 hurricane?
| zacker20 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 12:22 AM |
|
Re: Tampa Forecast
|
Post edited to remove misinformation~danielw
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 12:27 AM |
|
|
|
Fay
|
Try not to depend on the satellite data entirely. Use the radar data too. This will give a second dimension to the satellite data. The Weather Channel " Local on the 8s" is a good place to get updates every 10 minutes.
Fay has many personalities and is not a typical Tropical Storm.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 12:32 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Fay
|
I just stepped outside and the wind seems to be picking up significantly. Is wind a significant factor in this storm?
| West FL Jess |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 12:35 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Fay
|
Someone at Wunderground posted yesterday about Kermit and Miss Piggy and said they would both land in New Orleans so it must be their back up plan...
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/captcosmic/show.html
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 12:45 AM |
|
Some evening thoughts...
|
There seems to be quite a bit of worry about Fay this evening....let me address a few things...
1) There will not likely be any wholesale changes out of the 11pm package from NHC about the evolution of the future track. They generally don't mess with the late package very much, and will likely just refine their forecast, not make wholesale changes. There is really no reason for them to change very much right now..perhaps a slight shift to the east in the first 12-24 hrs, but the rest of the forecast is fairly sound at this point.
2) We are getting some excellent data right now from the Keys Nexrad, and you are seeing a strengthening TS doing what it does...the morphology of Fay is changing as the storm evolves, which is why you are seeing various motions, jogs, etc. You have to use average motions (ie, over 4-6 hrs) to get a true picture of what Fay is doing...don't worry about a jog to the east or west or whatever unless it lasts over 2-4 hours..then you can start to fret over a directional change.
3) in the same vein...the only reliable sats to use in center tracking are vis's...IR's can fool you, and WV is WORTHLESS (I say this every year...LOL). At this point you should only use radar and recon to determine where the center is.
There is going to be a LOT of study of Fay from a forecast performance standpoint. I am starting to think that the synoptic recon missions actually degraded the model performance, instead of enhancing it.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 12:46 AM |
|
|
the cobra maneuver
|
it's a dumb name, but it popped into my head the other night when i was looking at those tracks across florida, then bending back to the west. guidance keeps leaning further to the right in the short term so i guess it's time to start contemplating this idea some.... that the storm makes a sort of stretched S-type path and goes over the state, getting off the east coast enough to perhaps reintensify some. it isn't arcing way out into the eastern gulf like i was earlier worried, and now seems to be fighting to not start drifting northeastward... so that it may not even go in above naples. a goodly number of the models are showing slow movement and favorable atmospheric conditions if the system gets over the atlantic... so even though i feel sorta nuts saying this, folks further up the coast, say in the usually-ignored-by-hurricanes cape canaveral to cape romain swath of coastline... keep your peepers on this one. if it's 50-100 off jacksonville on thursday morning and drifting in the sauna out there we may get more of a storm up the coast than the official forecast shows.
in the short term, have noticed that the storm is slowly consolidating, with an oblong and almost dual center spinning around like a peanut on radar. the core convection is trending upward, with the banding features on the eastern side perhaps slowly strengthening. it doesn't make a whole lot of difference whether it strengthens to hurricane force before landfall, because the winds are going to be over the keys, coastal waters, glades.. maybe over okeechobee. most of peninsular florida will get several inches of rain.. maybe a dozen or more in a few places. these slow movers that are elongated like this always do plenty of that. it looks pretty certain what the lower half of florida is in for... at this point the forecast questions are much less certain on the effects further north.. just a rainy depression for ga/sc, or maybe a regenerated system from offshore? i'm dying to know... it's really hard to get any *real* tropical weather in my neck of the woods, because it would have to be a very vigorous gulfside system that moves in to the northeast really fast (think opal 100 mi east), or one of those rare, mercurial atlantic hurricanes that decided to blast into georgia or lower sc with serious intensity (think hugo 100 miles west). there's a fleeting chance i might get... barely something. that goes in the wow category for this amateur forecaster. you coast dwelling sadists probably think that's pathetic, and coast dwelling hurricane-haters maybe wish they could borrow my odds.
HF 0046z19august
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 12:48 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Some evening thoughts...
|
Thanks Jason.
To correct the above posts on the Tampa Forecast I will post the latest Forecast here.
PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...BRANDON...
TAMPA
535 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...
.TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID
70S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS
35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 65 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
45 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 75 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE
OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS 30
TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 60
PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/TBW/ZFPTBW
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 01:01 AM |
| Attachment |
|
|
|
Re: Some evening thoughts...
|
well just got the some of the 00Z data models... and i have to say... from 3 days on... that cone is going to be wide! Looks like most models take landfall now right near Naples, Fl. No susprise there... and then onto near the cape and or off shore of Jacksonville, Fl.. after that there is again a wide range of solutions... and the blocking pattern is still there, with a possibility of a "westward" track... the GFDL goes back in around GA/SC border.. close to the HWRF and then onto the Ohio river Valley... BAMS suite the same as early...
only expect minor changes in the 11pm package... to adjust for landfall location in the morning... and then expect the 3-5day cone to be about the same... as the 5pm
Better 2D look at the 00z models
| flanewscameraman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 01:15 AM |
|
Re: Some evening thoughts...
|
Good Evening All.. I am here in Palm Beach County and as of 9:15 it is rainy, but not much wind. I am wondering if we should expect mainly a rain event as Fay passes to our west, or will we be experiencing some wind events also. It has been squally all day here.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 01:18 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Some evening thoughts...
|
Recon just passed through the center again... around 25.07N 81.85W at 01:10:30Z. looks like pressure may be down some.. 996-997mb? Will see when dropsonde data gets back to the servers in about 10-15 mins. Looks like movement still north, but its hard to tell sense last center fix was about 40 mins ago.
| LDH892 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 01:25 AM |
|
|
Re: the cobra maneuver
|
Hank makes a great point about not letting your guard down in N. FL and GA. If Fay gets forced far enough east to reemerge over the western Atlantic ocean then we may see some slow re-intensification and thus impacts on regions in coastal northeast FL and coastal GA that have been left alone for quite some time. We saw some pretty drastic shifts in the models today, first starting with the GFDL and HWRF going off the deep-end this morning not being able to handle the big ridge building in from the northeast predicted by the GFS and NAM. Radar imagery looks impressive with the single wide convective band trying to wrap around the LLC, it appears that Fay will reach land before this happens however. How about that rain band / feeder band stretching from the storm all the way SE and S to off the N. coast of Cuba? I'm anxious to see what NHC thinks about the track variations with this next set of model runs (00Z). Will Fay make it to the western Atlantic? Will she stay inland and get pushed back towards the W.? The drought here in the western Carolinas could really use 4-5 inches of rain from her.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 01:26 AM |
|
|
Re: Some evening thoughts...
|
Hope this helps....if you go to the main page, you can find the local Hurricane statements for your area. These will most likely be the best source for what to expect weatherwise.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 01:26 AM |
|
|
Re: Some evening thoughts...
|
I just lowered the pool, getting ready for a wet noisy, wet night. The upside of this mess is Lake O's water level should get back close to normal and the everglades will get replenished.
They say we got over 2" of rain already.
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 01:40 AM |
|
Re: Some evening thoughts...
|
Just as a reference point for everyone, 81.9 W is approx due south of Fort Myers, FL, a hair slightly to the West of Naples, not trying to split hairs, just giving a reference point. Looks like partial landfall in Naples, the COC does not appear it will come fully onshore until about Ft. Myers, on a current due N track.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 01:40 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Some evening thoughts...
|
well recon center fix has:
A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 1:10:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°03'N 81°52'W (25.05N 81.87W)
B. Center Fix Location: 34 miles (55 km) to the N (351°) from Key West, FL, USA
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg) - Extrapolated
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the east quadrant at 0:57:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the southwest quadrant at 1:15Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the E (91°) from the flight level center
Notice too that the G-IV is heading into New Orleans area... they completed there GOM mission..
With regards to Fay... i think Dry air is winning at this time... until we can get a burst of convection on the south side of the center, the chances of it making hurricane strength at landfall is fading i think.. which is a good thing!
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 01:44 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Some evening thoughts...
|
This is the radar loop out of Key West...if that little circle directly north is the center, then I am thinking the Northward movement would be correct...you can kind of see where it jumped to the NE, but now appears to be moving due North. Any and all thoughts appreciated!
Key West Radar Loop
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 01:48 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Some evening thoughts...
|
Suspect that the overall motion tonight is just about net north. The two very recent center fixes indicate a tiny shift to the NNW from one to another, but this is basically meaningless unless confirmed for several more hours. It is worth noting however, that the most recent fix drops Fay down another mb, while also showing an increasingly warm inner core developing.
| Tropicbird |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 01:49 AM |
|
Re: Some evening thoughts...
|
This storm could be a nice help to dry areas, especially if it can get up into GA. Today in inland South Dade we had about 21/2 inches of rain spread out over the whole day, and little wind. By sunset the rain had stopped and the wind had picked up. About 20-30 mph; no big deal so far. Hoping this storm is a net positive when all is said and done, with some helpful rainfall but not too much damaging wind/torrential rains. We'll see what happens.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 02:11 AM |
|
|
|
Just a Friendly Reminder
|
I know that as this storm approaches Florida, people are tired and tense and sometimes this will get things heated up on the board and PM'g other posters with some not so nice messages.
I would really appreciate it if everyone could be a little more forgiving and remember that even if you disagree with what someone posts, we shoud still be civil about the way we handle things. We're all here for the same reason.
However, I would also like to point out that we really need to stick to the Forum Rules, so please try and adhere to them as best you can.
Thanks again!
Colleen
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 02:12 AM |
|
Re: Some evening thoughts...
|
Overall the system is still moving N with a dg angle of 5-10dg but a general turn to the NE is expect over the next 6-12hrs making landfall by sunrise and moving across the state Tuesday and exiting somewhere between Vero beach- Daytona beach. Watching the radar, you can see the dry air trough keeping Fay from progressing much past Ft Myers. I think we seen almost all of the due north movement and it will follow the NE moisture flow of the mid-levels. Landfall near Marco island-Bonita Springs looks about right!
It still may make hurricane force by the 5am landfall but right now its a 50-50 chance.
| smorse22 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 02:13 AM |
|
Re: Some evening thoughts...
|
In this link it looks like it jumped to the west. What do you think?
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 02:20 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Some evening thoughts...
|
Quote:
In this link it looks like it jumped to the west. What do you think?
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
I disagree. Fay is turning the normal way she should, and to me it looks like she has been in the same position for a while now. Certainly can see she is much more organized now.
| metwannabe |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 02:52 AM |
|
|
|
Re: the cobra maneuver
|
To follow up on Hank's comments about the "winds are going to be over the keys, coastal waters, glades.. maybe over okeechobee" as Fay crosses Fl pen. TC structure is not disrupted that much when it moves over these areas of FL as when they move over other land masses. So I expect that the overall organization of Fay will be fairly intact as it, if it, emerges off east coast into Atlantic. So definately not too early for those along north east shore of Fl, south east Ga to start keeping close eye on storm.
In fact I would expect conditions to be much more favorable for development at that time....
| kromdog |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 03:10 AM |
|
Re: the cobra maneuver
|
11:00 PM advisory has Fay moving more NE through the state. Hurricane Watch is no longer in effect north of Anna Maria. Tropical Storm warning is still in effect for this area..
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 03:26 AM |
|
|
|
Re: the cobra maneuver
|
Just when my local mets had me convinced of the NE movements, they jump in and say, "Now it's moving almost due north."
Oh well...it'll probably wobble and bobble all night long until it makes landfall, so maybe I'll just stop looking at the loops for a while.
| kromdog |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 03:45 AM |
|
Re: the cobra maneuver
|
She seems to like it over the water.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 03:51 AM |
|
|
|
Re: the cobra maneuver
|
Just what in the heck is Fay doing? I step away for a second and then they downgrade her here saying she is only going to be a storm? What if she curves back to Georgia and takes a hit at us again? I was looking forward to seeing my first storm. Guess everyone is kinda confused as to what Fay's plans are? Anyone have any ideas why NHC shows her going tword across state and then curving toward Georgia?
| flanewscameraman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 03:58 AM |
|
Re: the cobra maneuver
|
Here in West Palm Beach its getting a bit gustier, but nothing to write home about. Will be interesting to see what the early morning hours bring...
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 04:07 AM |
|
|
|
Re: the cobra maneuver
|
Fay is doing exactly what the NHC said she would do, April. The NHC track isn't really all that confusing. It has to make landfall somewhere. The models for the periods later in the week show different scenarios but it's too far out to predict what Fay will do 5 days from now.
As far as looking forward to your first storm, your wish will more than likely be granted...just wait till morning when it's closer to your area and you'll be surprised at what a tropical storm is capable of doing.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 04:12 AM |
|
Re: the cobra maneuver
|
Quote:
Anyone have any ideas why NHC shows her going tword across state and then curving toward Georgia?
It's not the easiest concept to explain...
There is a big area of high pressure forecast to develop over the eastern US over the next few days. As Fay moves further north, it will 'run into' the fringes of the high and will be steered by the flow around it. As winds flow clockwise around a high, Fay will begin to move westward around the 'edge' of the high.
Does that make any sense?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 04:16 AM |
|
|
|
Re: the cobra maneuver
|
That's the best explanation I've heard all night. Thanks, Jason!
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 04:21 AM |
|
|
|
Re: the cobra maneuver
|
I would have to agree. That was a great explanation Jason. Thank you for clarifying. So this High over Florida will take Fay across the state and then the Atlantic will strengthen her and bring her to Georgia?
| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 04:37 AM |
|
|
Re: the cobra maneuver
|
It isn't certain at all what she will do, but some of the models suggest that scenario. To see why the mets consider that a possibility, look at the model runs here:
Spaghetti Models
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 04:38 AM |
|
Re: the cobra maneuver
|
I would advise everyone to not put a lot of faith in the NHC track at this moment beyond about 48 hrs...it looks solid thru 48, but the the model data REALLY breaks down, and they are using a compromise...the are averaging all the solutions and taking a line down the middle...usually that is very accurate, but in this case with all the divergent modelling it's not going to give you the right answer, more than likely. This is not a knock on the NHC, BTW...the data does not lend itself to a clear cut answer.
The new GFS stalls Fay off of the Cape for about 18 hours, then back across FL, coming out at Tampa, then ANOTHER FL landfall in the Panhandle this weekend near Fort Walton Beach.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 04:41 AM |
|
|
|
Re: the cobra maneuver
|
Quote:
I would advise everyone to not put a lot of faith in the NHC track at this moment beyond about 48 hrs...it looks solid thru 48, but the the model data REALLY breaks down, and they are using a compromise...the are averaging all the solutions and taking a line down the middle...usually that is very accurate, but in this case with all the divergent modelling it's not going to give you the right answer, more than likely. This is not a knock on the NHC, BTW...the data does not lend itself to a clear cut answer.
The new GFS stalls Fay off of the Cape for about 18 hours, then back across FL, coming out at Tampa, then ANOTHER FL landfall in the Panhandle this weekend near Fort Walton Beach.
Thats weird. Is this normal for a storm like this to do such a thing?
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 04:45 AM |
|
Re: the cobra maneuver
|
You think that one is crazy, look at the 1800 GFDL it is even crazier. Guess even after fay crosses state we will not be done with her. Jason what are the chances that these scenarios play out? Seems to me that this would be an anomaly. What do you think??
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 04:45 AM |
|
Re: the cobra maneuver
|
Quote:
Thats weird. Is this normal for a storm like this to do such a thing?
There are no normals with tropical systems...especially those in the Gulf. The Gulf of Mexico has long been known to meteorologists as the "Graveyard of busted forecasts".
| MadDog |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 04:45 AM |
|
Re: the cobra maneuver
|
It is interesting to consider that there are now about 6 models that are showing a possible hard left turn after it crosses the state.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 04:52 AM |
|
|
|
Re: the cobra maneuver
|
Just to clarify Jason's explanation a little bit more with a few additions -
The trof passing to Fay's north is what will probably turn her NNE-NE across the state and perhaps drop her offshore - maybe allowing her to sit and stall out east of Jacksonville, as one of the more preferred scenarios - Under this passing trof, a ridge of high pressure builds in -- maybe to stall Fay out even more, at least initially, and then, perhaps, shove her inland into Georgia or back across Florida and out into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 04:53 AM |
|
Re: the cobra maneuver
|
I had a conversation with Clark tonight, and we are somewhat confused as to how the GFDL and HWRF are coming up with their forecasts, especially since the GFDL uses the GFS for it's inital data.
Strange as it may seem, the GFS solution is quite possible, especially since the ECMWF (probably the best model in the world right now) backs it up with the same idea, just a bit further north. The tracks that just plow NNW at high speed just don't make sense.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 05:04 AM |
|
|
|
Re: the cobra maneuver
|
Thought this was of interest... the P-3 that is out there now.. Ms. Piggy.. took off at 11pm CDT... one of the NOAA research guys has limited internet access on the plane... and his position is showing up on http://www.spotternetwork.org/ out in the GOM.. of course there already south of Miami now... but its cool to see that the sat. internet is work and or he has the spotternetwork software running on his computer/workstation. Like to see an LSR from the center! lol
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 05:04 AM |
|
Re: the cobra maneuver
|
I agree with my fellow Mets on the GFDL model. I dont see Fay racing NNW into that ridge after 48hrs. First 48hrs are pretty clear about a crossover the state. Where exactly it emerges and the strength of the ridge building in will determine the W or WNW movement back across florida. Anywhere from the Cape-Savannah need to pay close attention over the next few days. Infact the next 24 hrs will be very important.,but lets focus on her current landfall as she still can be a Cat 1 by 5am.
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 06:04 AM |
|
|
|
Re: the cobra maneuver
|
Starting to rain in stuart, i just got back from the beach its blowing pretty hard on the beach and gusty, but the second i walked over the dune line 50% had dicapted id gues a godd 30 gusting to 40. Im waiting to see what this line of storms brings us there is a tornado warning to west of me 15 miles.
Oh yeah pressure 994
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 06:56 AM |
|
Re: the cobra maneuver
|
Either I have been watching the radar loop too long or does it look like it has stalled? And if so is this because fay is feeling the ridge building back in?
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 06:59 AM |
|
Re: the cobra maneuver
|
TWC just said it is stalled. They also seem to think it will make landfall around Marco Island
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 07:03 AM |
|
Re: the cobra maneuver
|
Quote:
I had a conversation with Clark tonight, and we are somewhat confused as to how the GFDL and HWRF are coming up with their forecasts, especially since the GFDL uses the GFS for it's inital data.
Strange as it may seem, the GFS solution is quite possible, especially since the ECMWF (probably the best model in the world right now) backs it up with the same idea, just a bit further north. The tracks that just plow NNW at high speed just don't make sense.
I was glad to see that the GFDL came around somewhat to the GFS idea with its 00z run tonight, showing a storm backing to the west around the building ridge before turning northward on its eastern periphery. The HWRF does the same now too, just a bit further north and faster. Ultimately, we have two camps for the post-Florida peninsula landfall:
1) One camp of models (GFS, NAM, UKMET, ECMWF) suggests a slow movement NNE-NE across the state before slowing further, turning westward, and moving toward the Gulf.
2) Another camp of models (GFDL, HWRF, Canadian) suggests the same movement across the state before turning northwest toward GA or SC, then accelerating northward across the eastern US.
The difference between these camps appears to lie in how they handle the eventual evolution of the ridge that builds in across the eastern US. The latter camp erode it and do not reinforce it from the west, instead showing a deeper trough entering from the midwest and accelerating the storm toward the Great Lakes. The former camp reinforces it from the west, showing a weaker trough from the midwest that deamplifies as it moves eastward, allowing the storm to become trapped in the southeast.
Ultimately, we've got a lot of Florida for Fay to get across first with an uncertain intensity picture, with radar data from Key West and Miami both showing a partial eyewall forming, about 50-60% closed and 20 or so miles in diameter. Pressures have slowly fallen through the evening but the surface winds haven't done the same. It's still possible for Fay to become a hurricane before landfall in the early morning on the coast south of Naples, but time is running short. Nevertheless, the gradually improving inner core suggests that Fay should be able to maintain itself reasonably well as it moves across Florida in the next couple of days, bringing heavy rains and the threat for isolated tornadoes as it does so. It is way too early to speculate as to what may be left of Fay when it gets to the Atlantic -- if it gets to the Atlantic -- yet alone to the Gulf. However, those from South Carolina around to Mobile should still keep an eye on the evolution of Fay and the upper level synoptic pattern the next couple of days. If nothing else, there are bound to be some good rains around for the next few days.
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 09:02 AM |
|
|
|
Re: the cobra maneuver
|
Very nasty out this morning about 4miles inland near Stuart. Wind gusts and heavy rain woke me up. Fay is moving so slow now I am curious if she tracks closer to the Atlantic and her SE and NE quadrants are out over water how much strengthening could occur. Although Fay is nothing like Wilma, there was obvious strengthening with Wilma as she approached the coast.