MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 10:59 AM |
Fay Over Lake Okeechobee
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1PM Update
Fay's very good mid level organization combined with the wet areas of southern Florida and Lake Okeechobee have actually seen the pressure drop down to 986 mb, and windspeeds increase to 65MPH.
Wind gusts near hurricane force were reported at Moore Haven, FL (Western side of Lake Okeechobee), see Special Weather Statements
11AM Update
Fay is maintaining a rather good structure even over land, if/when it reemerges into the Atlantic it could once again strengthen, so those in Northern/Florida and Georgia may want to be aware of that. Irene of 1999 was a similar setup. Read Ed's Met Blog below for more information.
Original Update
It looks like Fay did not strengthen enough overnight and has made landfall in southwest Florida as a Tropical Storm. It will be rainy and breezy today throughout much of the southern half of Florida, also many short lived weaker tornadoes are possible (and are happening) as the outer bands of Fay move through.
We have a few discussion threads going on Fay, if you would like to discuss Fay's possible impact on Florida, check out here, if you want to let people what you think, or have a gut feeling, or want to shoot the breeze on Fay do that in the Fay forecast Lounge Want to let us know about conditions in your area, any closings, notices, or evacuations, let pass it along in this area. This is done to attempt more order during the flood of information (both good and bad) that will come over the next few days. The main comments are usually for discussion of what the storm is doing now, or will likely be short term.
Elsewhere in the tropics a wave in the central Atlantic (94L) may become a depression in the next few days.
Please pay attention to local media and officials in your area as the storm approaches. As of 2PM Fay is still a Tropical Storm. For state information, check out the local NWS advisories on the top of the main page and Floridadisaster.org.
HCW Level 3 Radar Recording of Fay
Mark Sudduth over at HurricaneTrack is out in Southwest Florida now, tracking the storm in his vehicle.[/url]
More to come soon...
General Fay Related Links:
Southwest Florida Webcams / hurricanecity
Florida Emergency Management / floridadisaster.org
Cuban Radar Flhurricane Recording of Cuban Mosaic radar
Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
{{radarlink|tbw|Tampa Bay, FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|byx|Key West, FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|amx|Miami FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|mlb|Melbourne FL Radar}}
Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL (Naples)
Lee County, FL (Ft. Myers)
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL (St. Petersburg)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Paso County, FL
Hernando County, FL
Citrus County, FL
Levy County, FL
Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh
Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
St. Petersburg Times (Tampabay.com)
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Palm Beach Post
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)
Storm Animation of what a storm passing just north of Tampa would do to Tampa Bay
Dominican Republic Radar (Flhurricane Recording/Loop of this Radar)
{{StormCarib}}
Fay plotted on Google Map
{{StormLinks|Fay|06|6|2008|1|Fay}}
{{StormLinks|94L|94|7|2008|2|Wave 94L}}
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 11:21 AM |
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Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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Alright there is this weather station near naples. the pressure reports are sporadic but at 4:45am this pressure 29.06 984 milibars came in folowed by 5;00am of 29.26 990 Fay made landfall at 984millibars not 989 like nhc said.
National data bouy center
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 11:43 AM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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Since midnight we've had about 2" of rain in Delray Beach, plus the 2" we had yesterday. Really no wind to speak of, maybe 15 mph tops so far. There were tornados around 1:30 AM in Wellington; thankfully only minor damage. When a band comes through we get heavy rain for 5-10 minutes then drizzle.
They say lower Palm Beach County will see improving weather this afternoon.
| Tropicbird |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 12:27 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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It seems unusual for a storm to drop 14 mb (from 1002 to 988) and not gain in wind strength. Anybody know why this was the case with Fay? The banding on radar looks very organized this morning; I was surprised to wake up and see that she never made it to hurricane status overnight.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 12:34 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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It is a few hours after landfall and yet Fay looks about as strong as it ever has. Land effects will eventually take their toll, but it should hang together pretty well for awhile considering that it seems to have established an inner core. Fay could be around for several more days... but in exactly what form depends on the amount of time (if any) it ends up back over water. The forecast continues to be unusually difficult.
Anyone to the east of Fay's track should stay alert to the tornado threat, especially if there is any sort of daytime heating to bump up the available instability.
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 01:02 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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In Ft. Myers here.. we've had a lot of rain, drainage ditches are all full here, also winds have been steady around 30 with gusts in the 50's.. Fay does look as good as she's ever looked , but circulation centers tend to tighten up making landfall, at least temporarily.
Hurricane Charley (Port Charlotte- NE Eyewall)
| mcgowanmc |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 01:07 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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Ho Hum.
Another day of completely different Fay forecast models.
But THC is trying to move Fay over Apalachicola.
CMC most accurate model to date.
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 02:17 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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Since Fay has come ashore the center has the best presentation yet:
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Question: If Fay hangs out over Lake Ockachobee (sp)
can it restrengthen?
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 02:19 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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Quote:
Since Fay has come ashore the center has the best presentation yet:
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Question: If Fay hangs out over Lake Ockachobee (sp)
can it restrengthen?
I was wondering the same thing myself. Local Radar shows a very good presentation of Fay. The center is able to be seen. Can she restrengthen>?
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 02:20 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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Quote:
Question: If Fay hangs out over Lake Ockachobee (sp)
can it restrengthen?
Not a large nor deep enough body of water for that - too much land around it, too.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 02:22 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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Okay another question then,
If she goes to the Atlantic, then can she have a chance at regaining strength?
| kromdog |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 02:32 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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This is the best she has "looked" yet.
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=mlb&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
| mcgowanmc |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 02:38 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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Fay will stall around Orlando.
Then turn to the West.
alot of water will be dropped East and north as it does this.
http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark6latest.png
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 02:42 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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Depends how far into the Atlantic and for how long. I wouldn't expect very much restrengthening though.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 02:46 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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That depends on how long Fay stays over land before/if she makes it into the Atlantic.
Her presentation on radar is amazing for being over land, I have to agree. Before I was seeing a more east than north movement but in the last hour, I have detected an almost due north movement. What does that mean? It means that more of the northern counties will be affected by Fay. It will be interesting to see the 11am update. The north movement could just be part of her NNE course. Time will tell.
| metwannabe |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 02:53 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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Agreed, circulation centers do most times tighten up shortly after landfall for a short time. But you got to admit this storm looks very organized at this point and in fact the last frame on Vis Sat loop almost shows an "eye" trying to form.
Flat lands of FL, the everglades...again systems do not deteriorate there as much as other land masses. Hopefully wil not make it too far out into atlantic, with good inner core, better enviromental conditions would not need to be over water long to see some re-intensification. Time will tell.
| kromdog |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 02:53 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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It does appear that there is a little more move to the north. This was predicted, it may be just a little earlier.
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=mlb&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 02:56 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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Fay looks to be doing something similar to what Irene in 1999 did, which was weaken, but maintain its structure (across the state causing problems on the east coast. In fact the NHC's latest discussion indicates it may restrengthen a bit when it gets over the Atlantic, or stall at or just off the coastline of the East coast before heading back into Land in northern Florida. Fay's strong mid level circulation (which it's had for a while), is probably causing the pressure to even drop a bit.
What it likely means is Central Florida will be dealing with a TON of rain.
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 02:58 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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Actually Mike pressure is down 2mlb from 8am
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 03:03 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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I'm looking at the VIS sat and am noticing huge blobs of convection firing off shore due east of lake 'O' (I dont spell well thus abbreviated). Could this tug the center more in that direction? Its an impressive blowup
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 03:03 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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What are the chances of Fay forming an eye over land? The reason I ask is because I was always told tropical storms and hurricanes can not strengthen or form over land. I'll attach an image of the latest radar with what I think to be looking like an eye forming. Is this at all possible to be forming into a hurricane while over land? If this is not an eye forming, then what is it?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 03:05 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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Well, as of the 11am forecast, they still have it moving NNE, so it may just be a temporary move to the north. Although any jog to the north for any amount of time could mean a chance of more weather for the more northern counties...like mine..Polk.
| Chris Bryant |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 03:09 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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Quote:
Okay another question then,
If she goes to the Atlantic, then can she have a chance at regaining strength?
From the 11AM NHC discussion:
Quote:
IF FAY MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE ON
RADAR...THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION COULD BE HIGHER THAN INDICATED.
AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST INTENSITY FOLLOWS CONTINUITY AND THE
SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. THE GFDL IS VERY AGGRESSIVE AND MAKES FAY A
STRONGER CYCLONE OVER THE WATER JUST EAST OF NORTH FLORIDA. DO NOT
RULE OUT THIS POSSIBILITY YET.
| Troy C |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 03:10 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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In regards to Strmtrckrmiami's question regarding and Eye over land, the latest discussion mentions an eye like ring of convection visible on radar.
| Brett Addison |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 03:13 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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Well folks, an eye is now forming over the storm even though the storm is over Florida. See visible picture below:
Fay
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 03:13 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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5-6 inches so far in Stuart this morning. In and out of Tornado warnings too. My cheap wind gauge broke around 30mph gust. Am wondering if Fay can gain strenghth drawing heat from NE and SE quadrants as she approaches the coast. Wilma did this but I realize this storm is no Wilma. Weather channel just said she has dropped 2 mb since land fall - explains the good organization seen on radar. How often does a tropical storm have an eye or should we just call it a well defined COC.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 03:14 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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So this is an eye? How is this possible? I thought storms couldn't form over land?
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 03:18 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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Quote:
What are the chances of Fay forming an eye over land? The reason I ask is because I was always told tropical storms and hurricanes can not strengthen or form over land. I'll attach an image of the latest radar with what I think to be looking like an eye forming. Is this at all possible to be forming into a hurricane while over land? If this is not an eye forming, then what is it?
Storms just don't collapse when they hit land. Fay was in a strengthening phase when it made landfall...if it had had about 4 more hours it likely would have become a hurricane. Because Fay got her act together and developed a good inner core, you are seeing the results of that now...Fay is holding her own quite well over land. What you are seeing is, indeed, an eye...it doesn't mean the storm is strengthening, however, it just mean the processes that began offshore are continuing.
A couple of other points...South Florida is very flat and very wet...the landmass doesn't make that big of a difference there, so storms are slow to weaken over S Fl. I have seen storms which didn't weaken at all over that area, and a couple which looked better after crossing S FL, although that is Very, Very rare.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 03:23 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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Fay has slowed down to a slow Jog over the past 1-2hrs. I do feel a NE movement will begin again. The Pressure still fell due to it tighting up its center overland, but along with that it had water inflow from the GOM and Atlantic and the glades aren't exactly land. Katrina did the same thing over the glades.
So it made the center tighten up, but as FAY moves NE the actual landmass will catch up and weaken her some. Matters where and how fast she gets off the east coast (if at all) to know how much weakening will take place.
* I really need to reread what I type before I post I know.. too many misplaced wordings *
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 03:29 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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The 11 discussion mentioned 24-48 hrs over the Atlantic. Could be an eternity in terms of strengthening. Key will be how long over land before it gets there.
| kromdog |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 03:31 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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Is there anything to be made of the next NHC advisories at 1:00 PM and 3:00 PM instead of the typical 2:00 PM advisory?
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 03:41 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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Quote:
Is there anything to be made of the next NHC advisories at 1:00 PM and 3:00 PM instead of the typical 2:00 PM advisory?
That is standard when there is a Storm near or on shore in the US.
| chase 22 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 03:50 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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Quote:
Fay will stall around Orlando.
Then turn to the West.
alot of water will be dropped East and north as it does this.
http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark6latest.png
Do you have any more data other than 1 model to back up that statement? Or could you explain your statement with a little more detail? That would be a rather drastic turn for this girl to make given the overall scenario.
| Typhoon Dave |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 04:14 PM |
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Re: Fay Makes Landfall at Cape Romano as a Tropical Storm
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One of the reasons Fay is maintaining or even gaining strength is the topography of south Florida. This region is dominated by the Everglades and Lake Okechobee which provides adequate fuel to sustain a troipical system. A good example was Andrew (1992) which entered southeast Florida as a Cat 4/5 and exited southwest Florida as a Cat 2.
| mcgowanmc |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 04:17 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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Hello.
I came here from the Oil Drum. This site seemed to have the best/latest info.
always looking at how storms will affect the LA/GOM.
Look over to the left at THC's latest track.
Then here:
http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark6/
The history of the clark forecast models for Fay.
Start here:
17-Aug-2008 22:29
and move up to today.
http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark6/plot19082008-1029.png
Fay turns at Orlando.
Good to be here. Look forward to staying.
James
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 04:17 PM |
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Re: Fay Makes Landfall at Cape Romano as a Tropical Storm
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I don't think either the everglades or Lake O help a system; neither are very deep so there is not much moisture to pull from. A storm like Andrew going from a 4/5 to a 2 which went over part of the evergalades, but nowhere near Lake O. The weakening would prove the opposite of your point.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 04:21 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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Fay is certainly being persistent and seems to prefer land. When have we ever seen a T. Cyclone form over land and have pressure fall while doing so? Should we be surprised by the trend today?
The motion remains sloooow (60 miles since land fall or 8-9 mph) and generally east of north. I watched a good long radar loop and convinced myself that yes it is still drifitng slightly NNE. In fact the eastern portion of the center may actually spend over an hour over the lake, now that should be interesting and won't diminish intensity.
I am curious though with just how far this system will go before it get blocked. I sense the eastern portion of the forecast track is more in order here, and as long as Fay can draw on both atlantic and gulf inflow, why should it completely wind down?
When Fay made land fall 150 miles to my south my baramoter was 1007 (29.74). Now it is 1008 (29.77).
We have frisky 20+ NE breezes and higher gusts..No Rain.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 04:55 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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Moore Haven, a town on the western edge of Lake O, just reported a windgust of 78MPH.
From Special Weather statements:
AT 1230 PM EDT, A SUSTAINED WIND OF 55 MPH WITH A WIND GUST TO 67
MPH WAS REPORTED AT AIRGLADES AIRPORT WEST OF CLEWISTON. AN
UNOFFICIAL REPORT OF AN 84 MPH WIND GUST WAS RECEIVED AT 1220 PM AT
MOORE HAVEN.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 04:57 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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Weather station in Moore Heaven, directly under the "eye" of Fay:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLMOORE5
Current conditions:
Wind 56 mph out of the SSE, gusting to 76 (is that accurate?!?)
Pressure: 998 and falling.
That's pretty ugly weather for being so far from the coast.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 05:02 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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Well this storm is truly deserving of its nickname, the Joker. This is a storm that will be studied for years in my opinion just on the basis of its land interactions.
The new advisory has the pressure at 986 and the winds up to 65.
Very, very impressive storm.
-If you're going to quote Jeff Masters verbatim, might want to include a citation. -HF
| SeaMule |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 05:04 PM |
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why is Fay Strengthening?
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This storm has to be confounding the experts. the fact that Florida is flat, the hurricane is pulling from the everglades and the large lake, and from both the Atlantic warm sst's, and the GOM warm SST's...is why it is so strong. Granted, a storm will not be sustainable at cat 5 like Andrew...but certainly there is enough energy to probably sustain and "develop" to some sort of potential, given the feedstock of water and topography she is under....
I remember hurricane Danny...which stayed in the middle of Mobile day for 2 days...sat there.....never got bigger...but never smaller either...
the big question is IF the hurricane gets back over the open Atlantic...or cuts back west into the GOM
in the meantime.....Florida will not have to make any more OJ....it's being made as we speak...lol
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 05:06 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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This storm is at 986mb and dropping, and went up 5 mph winds wise. How is that possible that "Joker" is strengthening over land? Will this be a hurricane soon if it continues to strengthen? How is it possible that she is strengthening over land?
| mikethewreck |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 05:39 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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Do you know which storm this reminds me of?
1994 tropical storm Gordon.
Tremendous rainmaker. I remember it made life miserable and soggy for many days. Went out to sea and came back in.
Attached a picture of the track.
| metwannabe |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 05:55 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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Dr. Steve Lyons made an interesting statement last night on a hurricane special on TWC. He stated (not exact quote) that although warm sst temps are necessary for TC development atmospheric conditions are more vital. Noting there had been instances where storms had been over very warm waters but torn apart by shear, dry air, etc... or the flip side, storms that intensified over colder waters because the atmosphere was ripe for strenthening.
I mention this because I think Fay proves that point. Many have mentioned that the terrain of S. Fl will not disrupt a TC as most land masses will but the atmospheric enviroment that Fay finds itself in now is ripe for strengthening. Put that with minimum land friction, close proximity to two large bodie of water (GOM/Atlantic) and Fay finds herself in a rare situation.
She continues of this path for what, about 8 more hours and it could get real interesting.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 06:02 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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Thought i share this Rapid Scan Vis of Fay. At the current path, i think she'll pass close to KMLB and or the Cape to exit Florida. Really not susprised that she tightened up her core and has an eye now. Friction and atmosphere conditions were almost perfect, PLUS slow movement. The everglades were very warm and now that she's gotten rid of the dry air, she has a good CDO going. Will be interesting to see how the Gulf Stream is holding up on the east coast of Florida.
Wow, check out FAY
Some interesting Data From the Wx Stations - You can move the map around and click on Stations
| Sadie |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 06:14 PM |
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Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought.
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From southern DeSoto County... We were thinking the worst had passed, but it is really kicking up again. I'm guessing the gusts are around 45 - 50 mph. About 4" of rain so far. I'm enthralled watching this thing eat from Lake O. The eye just keeping tigher and tighter! Who knew?
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 06:27 PM |
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Re: why is Fay Strengthening?
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So what are the chances of this slow moving storm making a track more to north? With more strength and the low movement, is that possible?
| Chris Bryant |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 06:33 PM |
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Re: Fay Over Lake Okeechobee
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Is it my imagination, or is dry air being pulled in to the top left side of Fay? Both the water vapor loop and the radar seem to show this (the radar image is getting kind of flattened).
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 06:35 PM |
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Re: why is Fay Strengthening?
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The NHC hasn't changed the NNE movement, although at times looking at radar it appears to go due North for a little while...but it has generally been a true NNE moving storm. Anything is possible, I suppose, especially with this storm.
| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 06:51 PM |
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Re: why is Fay Strengthening?
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Watching it on GRLevelX which allows you to add the smaller towns for better reference points, and to archive as long as you want. I just watched it slowly and carefully.
For the past hour, it has been headed due north from Moore Haven, and the eye is now about to pass dead center over the Brighton Indian Reservation which is due north of Moore Haven. So there's been little if any eastern trend for the past 1.5 hours and none for the past hour. Of course this doesn't mean there won't be an Eastern wobble in the next 10 minutes. :?:
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 07:01 PM |
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Re: why is Fay Strengthening?
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Notice the left semi-circle of the storm as it expands in the last few frames of satellite imagery. Is this a sign of a more northern component of movement?
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 07:06 PM |
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Re: why is Fay Strengthening?
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Fay is a determined storm isn't she? Her entire history has been one of defying the odds. It looks like the axis of the trough over the Eastern US has passed Fay's longitude, so does that mean she'll slow her forward progress even more? Let's see what the models will do at the 5PM major update.
| B_from_NC |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 07:09 PM |
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Re: why is Fay Strengthening?
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Over the last 6 hours the trend has been NNE and should remain that way. When we have all the tools that the mets have its easy to look and say its moving north for a bit then east, one direction or another. All storms have that classic zig-zag motion, this one is no exception.. But you have to look at the overall picture and the visible image over the last 6 hours clearly shows the NNE trend. The real issue here now is going to be how far south the high punches Fay back to where she will begin to somewhat stall. If this happens before she reaches the coastline then the storm will fizzle out much faster and the folks on the NE Florida Coast will be breathing a sigh of relief. If she gets out over the Atlantic again for any period longer than 12 hours she may have some more life left. Radar and visible sat are now showing some relatively dry air developing along the I-4 corridor... so its gonna be a close one!!!
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 07:12 PM |
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Re: why is Fay Strengthening?
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might be my eyes, but the radar is showing that the rain shield is not making it pass I-4 and there appears to be some mid level drier air working in from the north? From just south of Daytona to Tamp... there appears to be some drier upper air working under the cirrus clouds moving south... there was a line of clouds on Vis earlier that were over the Daytona Beach area, going from west to east and were moving south under the CDO... looks like the eye is begining to fill in too some.
this wx station is about in the center of the storm right now
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=MS75WX
UPDATE: station is on the west side of the Eye right now.. and station is reporting 29.22in / 989.4hPa. at 3:13pm EDT
UPDATE 2: sensor seems to be having data trouble... but did send at 3:34pm EDT 29.16in / 987.4hPa. with a 14 mph wind.. dwn from 30 plus.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 07:14 PM |
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Re: why is Fay Strengthening?
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It is pretty remarkable to see a tropical system actually develop an eye over land. As was mentioned above, whether or not a tropical cyclone is over water is not the sole determinant of whether it will weaken or not. In this case, the wind shear that had been impinging on the system from the west has relaxed, allowing the outflow to dramatically improve. As we've seen with a few other systems, the warm, humid, swampy conditions that prevail over south Florida can sustain (at least for awhile) a system in the strong tropical storm/low-end hurricane range if the other environmental factors are very favorable.
That said, Fay is running on fumes at this point and is starting to show a little strain. Cloud tops have warmed and the maximum winds on radar have come down slightly from earlier in the day. It is doing remarkably well for a tropical cyclone over land, but gradual weakening is still the most likely scenario until it emerges back over water. Model guidance is still not very clear on what happens with Fay after about 24 hours. NHC still has a very difficult forecast on their hands.
Radar has also been indicating some pretty intense small supercells in the outer bands of Fay over the Atlantic. These have tended to weaken as they move onshore, but areas near the coast will continue to see an enhanced tornado risk for the next several hours, along with a risk of damaging wind gusts.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 07:21 PM |
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Re: why is Fay Strengthening?
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Not sure if this belongs here, or in the lounge, so mods go ahead and move it if need be. I took a few videos of Fay coming over Fort Myers, and here are the links.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=786036587459254830&hl=en
The above is from today. Notice the height of the river below us compared to the bridge. It is fairly high for what it should typically be.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7180175177789446794&hl=en
The Second one is as the feeder bands hit us the evening of August 17th.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 07:41 PM |
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Re: why is Fay Strengthening?
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Does anyone remember another storm like this? A tropical system that actually GAINED strength (higher winds/lower pressures) and an eye wall feature AFTER being onshore for this many hours? Landfall was at 5AM, so this seems rather remarkable to me. Now we've seen storms that lost very little punch over land (Wilma comes to mind) but Fay is clearly stronger at today then she was at landfall yesterday in Key West despite being many miles inland and up against a strong(ish) ridge. Regardless of the other "favorable" conditions (low shear/high moisture) this still does not compute to me.
| vineyardsaker |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 07:44 PM |
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Re: why is Fay Strengthening?
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Could Fay gain hurricane status before coming out at sea? How about right after?
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 07:54 PM |
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Re: why is Fay Strengthening?
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Storm damage in Brevard/Barefoot bay:
possible tornado from Fay injured 2 and damaged 51 homes.
| SeaMule |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 07:54 PM |
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NHC projects at least 24 hours over the Atlantic...
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If this is what we are to expect...it will be interesting to see how much the storm intensifies. I expect it would not weaken below TS strength...and with over a day out there....hmmm....
On another note....the High Pressure is building quickly north and east of Fay...and the ridge to her west has broken down....with the water vapor loop showing increased moist air to her west...
perhaps at the 5:00 more info on the building high pressure systems that hurricanes avoid...will give us even more of an idea of what she might do...if she does indeed head due west.
If past tracks are indicative of the future ones...we can all bet it will change on the 5:00 update.
Since when does a tropical storm strengthen on land???? wow
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 08:00 PM |
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Re: why is Fay Strengthening?
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She sure appears as though she took a very slight NNW jog in between 18:45 and 19:15 UTC.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 08:08 PM |
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Re: why is Fay Strengthening?
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Current radar shows dry air very near the center on it's west side. We'll begin to see some weakening now.
| mcgowanmc |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 08:15 PM |
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Re: why is Fay Strengthening?
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Hello, VYS!
Before starting on Fay, you have the best take on- Russia finally returning fire
on the US -that I've seen so far.
And the only thing that could take me away from that is a Tropical Storm.
Fay's one of the most fascinating I've ever seen.
http://www.ibankcoin.com/peanut_gallery/...st-ever-on-fay/
veritas5 has some interesting ideas. Like Okeefenokee getting 20 inches.
It could use it.
Keep up the good work,
James
| ricky |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 08:16 PM |
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Re: why is Fay Strengthening?
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In Palm City FL winds have picked up more in the last hour or so to some of the strongest feeling we have had all day. I guess we are on the east edge of some of the deeper storms left around the eye.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 08:16 PM |
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Re: why is Fay Strengthening?
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Current Conditions just wont lighten up here in Fort Myers. Still extremely windy and rain. lots of it. I'm suddenly getting worried that the river below will flood..
| SeaMule |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 08:29 PM |
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High pressure building....Fay will head west soon
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Looking at the water vapor loops...and the latest water vapor loop from the NHC....Fay is not wobbling. She is being affected by the building ridge. The trough weakened and lift out totally...and she is now gonna be kicked back west.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Storm/AOI0/latest_wv_loop.gif
Does anybody else see this...
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 08:42 PM |
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Re: High pressure building....Fay will head west soon
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The most recent Floater vis sequence looks like Fay has made a jog to the NNW, but I don't see that on radar loops. Wobble?
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 08:48 PM |
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Re: High pressure building....Fay will head west soon
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At 5:00, Hurricane Watch Flagler Beach to Altamaha Sound, Ga.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 08:50 PM |
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Re: High pressure building....Fay will head west soon
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Check out this GoM Water Vapor loop. Why is there such an elongation in the wind field pattern to the west?
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 09:01 PM |
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Re: High pressure building....Fay will head west soon
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Guess this answers my earlier question:
Via his blog Dr. Jeff Master has referred to Fay as "unprecedented" and then added "I can't ever recall seeing such a large pressure fall while a storm was over land." Even he seems stumped by this turn of events, commenting "To have a storm intensify over land and maintain that increased intensity while over land for 12 hours is hard to explain".
And yet the crazyness continues as the models seem to be coming together, thus the NHC is now showing Fay has a good chance of making a THIRD landfall in northern Florida.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 09:01 PM |
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Re: High pressure building....Fay will head west soon
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This seems to back my comments of a more northerly component as of late:
000
WTNT41 KNHC 192043
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
FAY DID NOT WEAKEN OVER LAND AS ANTICIPATED AND IN FACT...IT IS
STRONGER THAN IT HAS EVER BEEN SO FAR. INITIAL INTENSITY IS
CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 55 KNOTS. THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE...RADAR
AND CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THIS HAS PROMPTED A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. GIVEN THAT FAY HAS
KEPT SUCH A WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE ON RADAR AND ON SATELLITE...THE
CHANCES THAT THE CYCLONE BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER
THE GULF STREAM EAST OF FLORIDA HAVE INCREASED. THE INTENSIFICATION
IS SUPPORTED BY SHIPS...THE GFDL AND THE HWRF MODELS...AND IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE EYE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH FAY HAS BEEN TRACKED BY SATELLITE
AND NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION
IS NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. CURRENTLY FAY IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THIS STEERING PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CHANGE SOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF FAY. THIS NEW STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE FAY TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA. FOLLOWING CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST TURN BUT GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SHARPER
WESTWARD TURN. IF SO...SOME SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED LATER ON.
THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/2100Z 27.3N 81.0W 55 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 20/0600Z 28.2N 80.5W 55 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT 20/1800Z 29.0N 80.2W 65 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 29.5N 80.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 30.0N 81.4W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 22/1800Z 30.5N 83.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 23/1800Z 31.4N 85.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/1800Z 32.0N 87.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
| Kraig |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 09:11 PM |
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Re: High pressure building....Fay will head west soon
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QUOTE: Dr. Jeff Master has referred to Fay as "unprecedented"
The strengthening of tropical systems as they traverse South Florida does have recent precedence. TS Irene strengthed to Hurricane status while crossing from Naples/ Ft Meyers to Jupiter in 1998. Hurricane Wilma strengthed from a Cat 2 Hurricane to a Cat 3 Hurricane while crossing from Naples/ Ft Meyers to Jupiter in 2006. South Florida is very flat, with generally low growing trees and very swampy conditions. The water in the swamps is very warm in summer- can be 95 degrees or more due to the shallow dark bottom conditions. It is very easy to see why a tropical system would maintain or increase with the warm and moist environment!
| vineyardsaker |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 09:15 PM |
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Re: High pressure building....Fay will head west soon
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Am I getting this right? The NHC says that Fay will become a hurricane somewhere right about where I live (in New Smyrna) after *strengthening* overland?!
It looks like the (now well formed) eye is going to pass right over our area and so we should brace for real hurricane force winds?
| watchinout |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 09:16 PM |
Re: High pressure building....Fay will head west soon
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I'm just wondering what everyone else thinks. I was looking at the graphs and maps and tracks and it looks like theres a storm system over Texas and another near the Rockies dropping southward. What do yall think is the possibillity of Fay getting in the Gulf reintinsifying and coming toward Florida again. After going into the Atlantic and hitting us. Kind of concern, Also seen the short track of 94L does anyone think this is a concern for Florida.
| vineyardsaker |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 09:45 PM |
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Re: High pressure building....Fay will head west soon
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So far a 3ft storm surge is predicted for the Florida Atlantic coast here:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200806_surge.html#a_topad
Does anybody know what the expected rainfall from Fay will be in the Daytona Beach area?
thanks
| Floridacane |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 09:46 PM |
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Re: High pressure building....Fay will head west soon
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Well, I enjoyed a brief lull in the weather here in Palm Bay. It's been constantly windy and heavy rain for about 5 hours. The bad weather has restarted and it seems to be raining ever harder than before.
| Soapyho |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 09:58 PM |
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Re: why is Fay Strengthening?
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Has anyone heard anything about Ormond Beach?
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 10:00 PM |
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Re: High pressure building....Fay will head west soon
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Quote:
The strengthening of tropical systems as they traverse South Florida does have recent precedence. TS Irene strengthed to Hurricane status while crossing from Naples/ Ft Meyers to Jupiter in 1998. Hurricane Wilma strengthed from a Cat 2 Hurricane to a Cat 3 Hurricane while crossing from Naples/ Ft Meyers to Jupiter in 2006
Sorry that is incorrect:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/events/?id=wilma
Wilma went from Cat 3 to Cat 2 as she crossed the state. I'm very familiar with this storm as it went right thru my backyard (literally!)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1999irene.html
Irene simply maintained her Cat 1 status as she crossed, the pressured dropped, but only 1mb. Oddly I barely remember Irene at all.
Clearly a storm can strengthen over the Everglades & Lake O but I don't see any cases were it happened before on the scale we saw today. A 10mb pressure drop while over land for almost 12 hours is an extremely rare event (once in a hundred years maybe?)
| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 10:19 PM |
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Re: High pressure building....Fay will head west soon
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Hurricane Isbell in 1964 is the closest comparison I've found. She maintained strength while crossing the Florida Peninsula, entering with winds of 125 and exiting with winds of 125.
She entered at 4pm at Everglades City and exited north of West Palm Beach at 9pm, so her time over land was very short.
| mcgowanmc |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 02:16 AM |
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Re: High pressure building....Fay will head west soon
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"Does anybody know what the expected rainfall from Fay will be in the Daytona Beach area?"
It will spin on your latitude.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurricanes/2008/FAY/images/Storm-06-Spaghetti.gif
15 inches.
good luck.
James
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 02:24 AM |
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Outer Eyewall taking over?
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Heya Everyone,
I've noticed something on radar the last couple of hours that I thought worth mentioning and pointing out: It seems that the inner eyewall is decaying and an outer eyewall becoming dominant. If this is the case, and not simply an artifact of the radar, then that could help maintain Fay's strength as at least part of the eye would be over water.
Of course if that is the case then the eye would be very large, and that would slow any recovery by the storm. Any thoughts?
reposted in the right forum because I'm a ditz
| Soapyho |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 08:56 AM |
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Re: Outer Eyewall taking over?
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Is anyone around? Just wondering how Ormond Beach is doing. I know nothing about hurricanes except what I see on the news online. I don't have TV channels or a stereo, lame, I know. I have a husband there going to school. Would love some reassurance since I can't reach him on his cell.
| nerakkaren |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 11:06 AM |
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Re: Outer Eyewall taking over?
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just a bit of wind and rain. -thurs could be the worst? like the rest we will wait and see
| Soapyho |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 11:11 AM |
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Re: Outer Eyewall taking over?
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Ok, thank you!
I'm just worried because he is staying in our 5th wheel trailer while going to school and hopefully graduating next Wed.I appreciate you putting me at ease.