MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 09:06 PM |
Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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Because of Fay's unprecidented tenaciousness, and remaining strong and actually increasing strength over Florida, Hurricane watches are now up for the Northern Florida Coastline from Flagler Beach north to Altamaha sound in Georgia.
From the current National Hurricane Center Forecast, Fay is expected to rain a lot move slowly north northeast, exit over the Atlantic near Palm Bay, strengthen into a hurricane, and then move back over Florida near Jacksonville. It is very likely this general track will verify.
We have a few discussion threads going on Fay, if you would like to discuss Fay's possible impact on Florida, check out here, if you want to let people what you think, or have a gut feeling, or want to shoot the breeze on Fay do that in the Fay forecast Lounge Want to let us know about conditions in your area, any closings, notices, or evacuations, let pass it along in this area. This is done to attempt more order during the flood of information (both good and bad) that will come over the next few days. The main comments are usually for discussion of what the storm is doing now, or will likely be short term.
Elsewhere in the tropics a wave in the central Atlantic (94L) may become a depression in the next few days.
Please pay attention to local media and officials in your area as the storm approaches. As of 2PM Fay is still a Tropical Storm. For state information, check out the local NWS advisories on the top of the main page and Floridadisaster.org.
HCW Level 3 Radar Recording of Fay
Mark Sudduth over at HurricaneTrack is out in Southwest Florida now, tracking the storm in his vehicle.[/url]
More to come soon...
General Fay Related Links:
Southwest Florida Webcams / hurricanecity
Florida Emergency Management / floridadisaster.org
Cuban Radar Flhurricane Recording of Cuban Mosaic radar
Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
{{radarlink|tbw|Tampa Bay, FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|amx|Miami FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|mlb|Melbourne FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|jax|Jacksonville FL Radar}}
Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL (Naples)
Lee County, FL (Ft. Myers)
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL (St. Petersburg)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Paso County, FL
Hernando County, FL
Citrus County, FL
Levy County, FL
Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh
Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
St. Petersburg Times (Tampabay.com)
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Palm Beach Post
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)
Storm Animation of what a storm passing just north of Tampa would do to Tampa Bay
Dominican Republic Radar (Flhurricane Recording/Loop of this Radar)
{{StormCarib}}
Fay plotted on Google Map
{{StormLinks|Fay|06|6|2008|1|Fay}}
{{StormLinks|94L|94|7|2008|2|Wave 94L}}
| Humanriff |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 09:14 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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Tenacious, yes. There is almost no movement of the "eye" between the 19:45 and the 20:15 NOAA Visible images. Might be a long night for you folks in So. Florida.
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 09:44 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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Latest GFS model takes Fay into the Atlantic, back over Florida into the Gulf, strengthening, and into the Panhandle.....this may be a long, long time before over.....
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 09:51 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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here's the SFWMD station the NHC is referring to in the 5pm. Notice... Eye went right over the center of the station. Wind Gust on Northern Eyewall was 60mph and pressure went down to 986mb. Some remarkable data!
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=MS65DW
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 10:00 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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Actually, If you turn on Lat/Lon, there has been almost due north movement from 18:15Z.
| M.A. |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 10:17 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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I might be seeing things. Is it me or has Fay become better organized on radar in the past 3 hrs. I have not seen her look this semetrical. It is something I havenever seen before. Maybe this has something to do with the strong mid level circulation that has been with this storm from day one. Maybe someone can shed some light on this for me.
Here in Vero Beach, we have had gusts to about 45 mph and approximately 4.5 inches of rain so far.
Mike
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 10:22 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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It has gotten a little better organized on Radar, and it's still moving north northeast.
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 10:26 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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Looking at the big picture and looking over current upper level maps, really cannot discount the GFS model. The GFS has been showing this turn back to the west across Florida for a couple days now before the others as the ridge builds back in the next 24-36 hours. Even bringing the storm further south then what it started with. The new 18z run takes it 20-30 miles off Melbourne area and then straight shot west back across central Florida exiting near Tampa area then moving northwest and eventually north into the panhandle area. Seeing how this storm structure as held its own and even gotten better through the day with a nice inner core wouldnt surprise me one bit to see this get to Cat 2 strength over the warm gulf stream. I feel we will be seeing further south adjustments to the track as time goes along, this was noted in the 5pm discussion. Folks in central and northern Florida will want to pay close attention to this over the next day...
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 10:33 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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Quote:
It has gotten a little better organized on Radar, and it's still moving north northeast.
agree here, i am very impressed to see on Miami and Melbourne radar that she has 3 eyewalls on the east side... this storm is very structured in her core right now... if she can make it to the atlantic without too much disruption, a Hurricane ramp up is looking more likely... then its just a matter of where the west turn will be.
one thing i noticed in the 18z GFS is now it brings another High into the picture out of Canda and in into western Great Lakes region this weekend... err
| engicedave |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 10:42 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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Where can I see the GFS model?
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 10:43 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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Joe the 12z GFS took it back west to just north of Clearwater...the 18z is further north taking it out across Citrus county. 0z run might shift back south some or who knows. Still even if Fay does track further south from Melbourne-Cocoa west thru Pasco....TB will be on the south side with alot of moisture flowing up from the gulf and decent T.S force winds. Still some "ifs" on the return path. Could be as far north as Jacksonville...but I do think its a florida thing and not GA.
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 10:56 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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My mistake scott I was looking over the 12z GFS thinking it was 18z, and yes it take it more WNW towards Citrus county similar to that 06z run with the 12z run looking similar to that of the 0z run last night. I agree with its likely a Florida threat.
GFS run link...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/model_l.shtml
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 10:58 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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wow..how about a storm that could possibly make 4 florida landfalls...Key West..Southwest FL..East Coast...Panhandle
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 11:17 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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Quote:
wow..how about a storm that could possibly make 4 florida landfalls...Key West..Southwest FL..East Coast...Panhandle
I'm not ENTIRELY convinced about the East Coast landfall.... because I'm not convinced it's going to make it to the Atlantic. Fay is undoubtably the weirdest storm I've ever tracked, now surpassing Elena!
Question for the Mets.... do you know of a tropical storm ever doing what Fay has done and is forecast by many models to do? (Make landfall along the western Florida Peninsula, then strengthen over land, then go back into the Gulf, and head who knows where!)
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 11:20 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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I have to agree. I am not totally convinced it will make it to the Atlantic.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 11:40 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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Hugh,
Gordon in 94 came close....
As did Florence in 1960...
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 19 2008 11:47 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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All 3 storms Jason mentioned on this map (google plot)
| gatorman |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 12:08 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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jason, i really trust your forecasting the most when it comes to these hurricanes, watched you for many years, what do you think this "Fay" is going to do? do you think it will enter the atlantic then pass over land back to the gulf? or what??? thanks ......
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 12:12 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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The 8:00 position is same as the 7:00 seems she has stalled. Wonder if fay is feeling trough leaving her behind. WV shows trough racing out past fay. Curious to see if this is a true stall or just a momentary situation.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 12:16 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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Looking at Nexrad on wunderground, this thing did not move from 7:44 to 8:14 pm EDT.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 12:30 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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I thought she had stalled a couple of hours ago, but from 5pm to 8pm (or maybe it was 7pm) she did move slightly NNE. On radar,. it definately looks like she's sitting still!
| Duane |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 12:38 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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Me and a couple friends from Sarasota are approaching Okechobee, FL after leaving the eye. At 8PM the eye was approximately 8 miles in diameter east to west with cloudy skies and calm temperature was 75 degrees, didn't have a barometer. Eastern eyewall had high/gusty winds and heavy rainfall in the 50 to 60 mph range.
We are still driving through heavy rain and gusty winds however not as strong
| ricky |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 12:40 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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Looking at channel 12's radar out of WBP it does look like it is sitting still or even moved a little due east.
| lawgator |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 12:47 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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Here is the radar out of Melbourne Florida. Last half hour loop, she's just sitting there.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MLB&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 12:50 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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It's too early to tell...it is certainly possible, and I am not convinced Fay ever sees GA.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 12:55 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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Yes, she does look like she's stalled...I don't know if that's temporary or what. Maybe since the ULL has moved out of the Gulf...I think that's what was causing her to go NNW last night...has pretty much died out, maybe she's trying to figure out where she's going. Hopefully she'll move because if she doesn't, the east coast of Florida is in for a long night.
| engicedave |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 01:02 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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9pm advisory
REPEATING THE 900 PM EDT POSITION...27.5 N...80.9 W.
MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 01:03 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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Based on this Floater.. anyone have an idea how many miles the center (so called) is from water?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
Dr. Lyons indicated just a bit ago Fay may have bobbled South? Didn't / Don't see it
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 01:05 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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Fay is trying to find some energy as she is on the fence right now as where to head. She has really been dried out on the NW side tonight as many have pointed out but take note she is beginning to compact more now...
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 01:06 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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There certainly isn't any north component of motion right now...it's trudging slowly due east. Very interesting, and problematic for the model solutions that bring it to near JAX for the 3rd landfall.
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 01:14 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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Jason (Clark, or Hank or whoever),
If (hypothetically) the storm did emerge further south than progged by earlier model runs, what would be the implications as far as second landfall point? Further South than Jax? Jax/North? As well as intensity. Particularly at the slow speed it is currently progressing at.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 01:14 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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It looks due east me which isn't so good because thats the shortest route to the water. Also when the 'North Turn' does occur, the further east it gets, the longer over water (note how the coastline tilts toward the NW)
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 01:20 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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It actually looks like its movement is even a little south of east. Sure is going to put a wrinkle in the next model runs. The joker continues to defy.
| B_from_NC |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 01:23 AM |
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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Looks like due east on radar on the last few loops but we will have ot see what happens longer term. If she does continue this way though, may scenarios are likely to unfold...
1. How far east does she get before coming back to the west?
2. How strong will she be if she takes first an east path over the gulf stream, then due west path back over central Florida, only to head right back into the mid gulf?
This storm is causing lots of headaches for the masses...
| metwannabe |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 01:24 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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Several years ago I heard a local met say that rapid pressure falls are good indicator of where a storm may go (short term).
currently
Vero Beach 998 mb
Fort Pierce 997 mb
Melbourne 1001mb
Orlando/Kissimee 1005 mb
Maybe I am stating the obvious with regards to pressures but Vero Beach and Fort Pierce are almost due east of Fay, there pressures have dropped...farther north have not. It does now appear to have an eastward motion.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 01:25 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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It's difficult to tell at this point. Looking at the floaters with Lat / Lon and forecast points on, still looks to be moving ENE. Just my eyes though.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 01:30 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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Quote:
It's difficult to tell at this point. Looking at the floaters with Lat / Lon and forecast points on, still looks to be moving ENE. Just my eyes though.
Sats update every 30 mins....radar updates every 6 mins...you get much more quality data from the radar right now than you do the sat data.
| GoBigSurf |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 01:30 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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I agree, I am seeing a wobble to the east also (yet I don't see the south movement yet).
I know the answer to this question might be to wait and see what the latest model runs show, but I live just south of due east in northern Port Saint Lucie.
Fay should not strengthen much (if it does end up moving straight east) until it reaches the ocean, correct?
Just trying to figure out if shutters should be put up in the morning if this passes over here tonight.
Or it might be too late since it is squally outside.
Thx
| rayboat |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 01:31 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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According to the latest GDFL model Fay Hangs around Florida for the next 72 hours! WOW
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 01:32 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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The Joker?? Last I rememberd.. It was called Fay
I know Dr Masters gave Fay that name but I think we should just call her Fay. Soo many Tropical Systems do crazy things. She is really no different (other than getting stronger over the glades). With all kidding aside, it will be interesting what the GFS (especially) does with Fay on the 0z runs.. Oh btw even if she continues her east or ENE movement into the Atlantic, I dont think the models will pick up on that movement on this up coming 0z runs. 6z will be a different story.Anyways with Fay, I dont see her geting further north than 28.6N making landfall. The ridge building in should halt her N movement tomorrow morning and have her meander.. If its already stoped its north movement, then Melbourne and the Cape might have problems Thursday-Friday.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 01:40 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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Thanks for the tip... Curious, is there an HWRF model link out there? What are your thoughts about this one; reliability?
| ricky |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 01:45 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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It looks like the last couple of radar frames it has started back to the NE.
| sprghill |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 01:47 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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How good are the chances that Fay comming back to the west coast and hitting the tampa northward to citrus
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 01:54 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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Quote:
Thanks for the tip... Curious, is there an HWRF model link out there? What are your thoughts about this one; reliability?
You can find HWRF plots on most all of the spaghetti plot pages.
Let's just say NHC has a not more confidence in the HWRF than I do.
| gulf coaster |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 02:03 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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How can I best visualize the weather feature that is going to cause Fay to turn west? What should I be looking for?
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 02:05 AM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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Well... well.. well... Fay is about 20 Miles from the Atlantic... and to me she's not going to make it to the Cape/MLB.. exit... instead she should exit somewhere north near Sebastian, Fl. to palm bay... Which should put her closer to the gulf stream off the SE Florida coast which is warmer than what would be north of the Cape. WHAT has Impressed me is her inner core sturcture has held for over 16 hrs now.. VERY IMPRESSIVE given the dry air around her and the weak shear she had to over come. Interesting to note in the 00Z runs that after the turn to the left.. some of the models that go into GA, actually take another left towards the GOM from southern AL/GA... as a weak low. Another stronger High builds in over the great lake region late this weekend, into next week.
It almost looks like in the last half hr.. her east side of the coc is opening up... dry air? in about an hr.. i tracked her on radar to travel about 7 miles. which i calculate her to exit the coast in 4-6 hrs from now.. it the current heading speed holds.
| Jumaduke |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 02:49 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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My thoughts: watching the west side dry up now and contract, if Fay continues EnE - south of Melbourne - she should hit gulf stream sooner than predicted and maybe 30 south of forecast point. Question is: If she runs the coast will the landmass to the west continue the breakdown of left side of her. She may go back to the view we had down by the Keys when she was NOT symmetrical.
WHat do you think?
PS... NW of Gainesville, wondering why these models keep finding a way to mess with us :-)
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 02:53 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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Heya Everyone,
I've noticed something on radar the last couple of hours that I thought worth mentioning and pointing out: It seems that the inner eyewall is decaying and an outer eyewall becoming dominant. If this is the case, and not simply an artifact of the radar, then that could help maintain Fay's strength as at least part of the eye would be over water.
Of course if that is the case then the eye would be very large, and that would slow any recovery by the storm. Any thoughts?
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 03:29 AM |
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fay heading seaward
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took a break from the radar for a few hours... last i looked it was trudging over northern okeechobee county. expected to see it near yeehaw junction at 11, but there it is in indian river county... edging northeastward and nearing the coastline around sebastian inlet. presentation on radar and satellite has decayed markedly in the last 2-3 hrs, with a noticeable dry slot and a considerable deterioration of the inner eyewall. am willing to bet that will be short lived.. that tomorrow morning the inner eyewall convection will recover as the core moves over water with considerable heat content.
willing to put my future philosophy on the storm out at this time. believe that fay is going to rebuild an inner core tomorrow and deepen rapidly at some point going into thursday. think the nhc track is fairly sound.. would edge my target window more from jacksonville to brunswick (bullseye at the ga/fl border, st marys ga) with a more gradual left turn... think the storm will clear the coastline enough to do some substantial deepening and be a significant hurricane by thursday pm. expect it to remain compact enough that wind damage will be in a relatively narrow swath, say 30-50 miles dia. i don't think the kind of deepening shown on the gfdl and hwrf are impossible given the compact nature of the storm. however, counting on odds that eyewall replacement or tepid waters at the immediate coast will have it weakening a tad at landfall. think the nhc official is at the bottom of the range i'd expect for landfall.. best bet winds 80-90kt. minor chance of major hurricane winds, but highly uncertain. expect the storm to be near or over the florida panhandle by sunday.
keep in mind that's just my best guess. if the storm hugs the coastline it may never get above tropical storm status. if it turns left as hard as the global consensus it'll probably be a force to be reckoned with in the gulf. if it swings a wider arc, georgia beware.
HF 0329z20august
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 03:52 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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Quote:
Let's just say NHC has a not more confidence in the HWRF than I do.
Jason,
I'm not sure what you mean by this statement. The 12Z HWRF is almost identical to what Fay is actually doing now, moving ENE. This is contrary to what the NHC said Fay would do. Or am I missing something?
Bill
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 03:56 AM |
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Re: fay heading seaward
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well looks like fay will be back over water in about 2-3hrs... she's about 15 miles from where i think she will exit.. coc is about to cross the I-95 area, just SW of Sebastian, Fl area. I think it may take some time for the inner core to build back up.. i do however see storms of the gulf stream building up in feeder bands. So its not out of the question there is good chance she will build back up... I think it will take sometime however. 12-24hrs plus.
To show the coc in 3D i made this radar cut about 10:45pm CDT 3D of Fay crossing I-95 with a collapse on the eastern side of coc. *note* in the center of the image... its not an eye... Fay doesn't have one no more.. its a Center of Circulation with an open/dry area on the east side.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 03:58 AM |
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Re: fay heading seaward
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Latest SHIPS has Fay turning westward between 30N and 32N toward 87.7 at 120 hours... or the 5 day mark.
SHIPS Intensity stays between her present 50 kts and as high as 65kts at the 60 hour mark. Or Friday morning at sunrise. Or what is normally sunrise without Fay hanging around.
Keep in mind this model and most of the other models are changing quite a bit every 6 hours.
Please check your local NWS office for Statements, Watches and Warnings.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 04:00 AM |
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Re: fay heading seaward
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Intriguing.
The 00z GFS brings Fay back on shore about 24 hrs from now, close to daytona beach, then across the state exiting into the Gulf appx north of Tarpon Springs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fpc.shtml
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 04:05 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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Quote:
Jason,
I'm not sure what you mean by this statement. The 12Z HWRF is almost identical to what Fay is actually doing now, moving ENE. This is contrary to what the NHC said Fay would do. Or am I missing something?
Bill
I am speaking of the HWRF in general, not of it's current performance...I am not very impressed with the choice of model physics they used.
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 04:06 AM |
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Re: fay heading seaward
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Quote:
Intriguing.
The 00z GFS brings Fay back on shore about 24 hrs from now, close to daytona beach, then across the state exiting into the Gulf appx north of Tarpon Springs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fpc.shtml
That would be quite a prodigious amount of accumulated rain in Central FL at the end of things...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p60_066l.gif
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 04:26 AM |
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Re: fay heading seaward
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Pretty much over water now. Now it's time to see what she does, really not in model theory. Though the models and NHC have been good with this most difficult storm.
Wanted to comment that the role of feeder bands has never been so highlighted as with this storm.
That pic up in the corner with the one long red feeder band far from the center keeps pumping back warm, gulfstream tropical moisture to a sytem that was landlocked.
possibly because fay was always strongest as a mid level storm when setting up her structure was always admirable if her center was wanting
that structure didn't fail her and when she hit land she sort of morphed back into a tightly wound system both levels connecting but enhancing each other.
will be very interesting to see what happens but the structure of a storm with good feeder bands is illustrated here with Fay
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 04:33 AM |
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Re: fay heading seaward
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Just for kicks...
The 00z GFS takes fay across the state, across Apalachee Bay, lashes the Panhandle, parks it off of the mouth of the MS River, then moves it BACK east for a 4th landfall near FWB and headed it NE near Dothan, AL.
Pass the Tylenol.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 04:43 AM |
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Re: fay heading seaward
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What a difference a day can make. I wake up this morning and Fay is forecast to come here as a TD, I come home from work and see that I'm under a Hurricane Watch. Here in Flagler County we BARELY get a bullseye hit from a Hurricane, they seem to pass to our south. However, with Fay, I'm getting some gas for my generator tomorrow.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 04:43 AM |
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Re: fay heading seaward
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Well, isn't that a cute little scenario! How much faith do you have in that model? I won't even ask what the implications would be for the west coast of Florida with that scenario.
I am getting FAY-tigued with this storm. It is a bizarre storm to say the least, but I'm ready to give her a free, one way plane ticket to Europe.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 04:47 AM |
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Re: fay heading seaward
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I have a lot of faith in the model, but I don't have a lot of faith in that particular solution...but stranger things have happened...I don't remember them, but I am sure they have....LOL
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 04:58 AM |
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Re: fay heading seaward
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Regarding stranger things:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1994/GORDON/track.gif
Gordon, 1994.. notice we are doing fall sort of storms in summer?
What a year, boy was that one fun to track...
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 05:42 AM |
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Re: fay heading seaward
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Fay should halt her northward movement in the next 6-12 hrs then meander for a day or so before moving west due to the building ridge now entering the Ohio Valley tonight and into the Mid Atlantic and NorthEast on Weds. How strong the ridge gets will determine if Fay moves W or just north (or south) of west.
Currently Fays center is just south of the dry air pocket around Melbourne and meandering NNE again and should come off the coast near Melbourne beach in a few hours.. Then the question is (when she gets to 28.5-29N) how far off the coast will she be? 10miles? 50 miles? It will make a difference in how strong she gets. Then since the ridge is building in Weds-Thurs how much time over the water does she have and direction she takes. She does have a 60% chance of making it to the GOM off of Hernado-Citrus county by Friday. Also I give it the same amount of making it to a 80mph hurricane if she stays offshore Brevard at least 25miles until Thursday night.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 06:07 AM |
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Re: fay heading seaward
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Well i think fay is crossing US-1 right now, just south of Malabar, Fl. She is so close to the Atlantic now... based on obs from wx stations and radar... i say she will officially hit the water in less than a hour. i would say she's at about N 28.04108 W 80.58197 at 2pm EDT... just about 3-5 miles from the coast on her current track. for the center of circulation. noticing feeder bands starting to flare up on the SE side of coc, out over the water... storms tops are increasing per MLB radar. and a stronger band is showing up on her SE side hugging the coast now...
this is a big help and locating certer of Fay
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 06:20 AM |
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Re: fay heading seaward
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is there a chart or something so I would know what my location is? Like 88.54W? I checked in hurricane ask and tell with no luck. Thanks
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 06:32 AM |
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Re: fay heading seaward
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Quote:
is there a chart or something so I would know what my location is? Like 88.54W? I checked in hurricane ask and tell with no luck. Thanks
try this web site.. using the most famous map system in the world...GOOGLE MAPS
shouldn't take but a few mins to get use too... then when you mark with a spot on the map.. you can find the distance to you next point.
http://mapper.acme.com/
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 06:43 AM |
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Re: fay heading seaward
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Well i say she's entering the Atlantic as we speak... right over Melbourne Beach. Part of the center of circulation is over the water now. Today is going to be a long day to see how much time she has to come back up in strength... Impressive she only went up to 992mb... i just saw three wx stations go that low in the MLB beach area, so i pretty sure thats what she is holding at..... by the way she very close to the MLB nexrad.. and the data is pretty good!
time about 1:40am CDT
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 06:48 AM |
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Re: fay heading seaward
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What is you feel on Fay? She is making me very nervous.
| stinger |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 08:08 AM |
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Re: fay heading seaward
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The wind direction has changed in east orange county florida so she has moved at least slightly north I just want her to GO AWAY I am tired and want to sleep ;}
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 08:20 AM |
Re: fay heading seaward
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Me Too! This storm has my nerves shot.
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 09:00 AM |
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Re: fay heading seaward
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Anyone else thinking Fay is not gonna make it back into the atlantic? High press is building in pretty quickly ahead of her..
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 12:09 PM |
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Re: fay heading seaward
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the gfs still has Fay going back into the Gulf and strengthening as she heads west, but may have her a bit strong before crossing florida to the west..looks like Fay just does not want to go over the Atlantic and is hugging the coast
| mikethewreck |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 12:45 PM |
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Re: fay heading seaward
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Maybe Fay's afraid to go back in the water...seems to be a land-seeking storm.
Significant flooding in the Treasure Coast (Vero, Ft. Pierce, St. Lucie) area. Real challenge getting to work on Hutchinson Island this morning.
| mcgowanmc |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 01:17 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast
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1960:
"The most notable storm of the season was Hurricane Donna, which reached Category 5 status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale and was the longest-lasting major hurricane in the history of the Atlantic basin. It was the worst storm to strike Florida in ten years, causing six direct deaths, and causing $387 million in damage ($2.4 billion in 2000 dollars).
Also, Ethel reached Category 5 strength very briefly before falling apart prior to landfall in Mississippi. This marks the first of only four seasons that two or more Category 5 hurricanes were officially recorded (the others being the 1961, 2005 and 2007 seasons); it remains the only season with two consecutive Category 5 hurricanes."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1960_Atlantic_hurricane_season
After Donna, Florence was a spring shower for Florida. ;}
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 01:18 PM |
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Re: fay heading seaward
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The GFS has been fairly consistent with her track east to west across FL though a tad further north than her current location. If she is stalling and she makes the turn to the west sooner, all bets are off as to her potential restrengthening which as we all know is more an art and not a science.
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 01:45 PM |
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Fay Nearly Stationary; Gulf of Mexico?
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Last couple hours radar suggests if there has been any movement, it's a slight jog due east. I've seen no evidence of movement to the north unless it is so little it appears stationary.. I think it's time to begin looking at what the model consensus is saying; the Gulf of Mexico; any thoughts?
| kromdog |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 20 2008 01:58 PM |
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Re: fay heading seaward
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Nice model to support your thinking.
http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/models/gfs_caribbean.html