MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Aug 01 2011 11:31 PM |
Emily Heading West Northwest in the Caribbean
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11:00 PM EDT 2 August 2011 Update
The official forecast didn't change much at 11, just extended out further another point, but following the curve, it's going to be close, but odds still favor the east of US landfall side, but it will be dangerously close and must be watched closely. It may be close enough for Tropical Storm watches to be put up in part of East Central, or South Florida Late Thursday or Friday. Luckily the western side of the storm in a northward traveling system is usually the weaker side. It still will likely bring very rough surf to the beaches along the east coast.
This advisory now places Georgia, North and South Carolina, and Southeast Virginia inside the cone of uncertainty. Anyone in the cone should be keeping up with developments on Emily.
However, for those in the Bahamas, as there are now Tropical Storm Warnings up for the Southeast Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos Islands.
New Full Update tomorrow morning.
6:00 PM EDT 2 August 2011 Update
Based upon the 5PM National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Emily has increased slightly in strength, but is still relatively disorganized.
The track forecast is becoming more obvious that it will stay offshore of Florida and the United States though, but the Bahamas will likely be dealing with the system, as there are now Tropical Storm Watches up for the Southeast Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands. It still has to cross Hispaniola, and heavy rainfall is expected. It is still possible for the storm to get torn apart over Hispaniola.
Despite the odds favoring no US hit, there still remains uncertainty with Emily's future track and strength, and this is not an "all clear". The situation will still need to be monitored, especially tomorrow and once the storm exits the Caribbean.
Heavy Flooding was experienced in Martinique and Guadeloupe from Emily, check out the StormCarib link below for more information on that.
Feel free to reply to ask questions, or make observations.
Want to read Speculation, and best guesses? Check out the Forecast Lounge.
8:30 AM EDT 2 August 2011 Update
Recon found the center a bit south and east of the official 5AM position, within the heavy convection, which is likely an indicator that Emily may gain some strength today. This will likely cause the forecast track to move further eastward later, and decreases the chance of a Florida landfall. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty left as far as how much further west Emily gets before starting to bend northward, though. So it is expected that the cone to continue to have parts of Florida in it today.
Those in the islands, however, may have to deal with a stronger system, especially as it approaches Hispaniola.
5 AM EDT 2 August 2011 Update
The morning forecast from the National Hurricane Center has arrived, and the forecast track has shifted west, in the short term, but has a tighter recurve element later, keeping it just offshore of Florida, but most of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina remains in the Cone of high uncertainty. The system is expected to remain weak, and now is forecast to remain a Tropical Storm as it stays offshore of Florida later in the track. However, the amount of uncertainty in the forecast beyond 3 days is very high, both for position and intensity.
Shear from the north northwest is currently impacting the system, and the low level center seems to be west of the main convection, in short Emily is not very healthy this morning. This weakness makes the forecast much more difficult for the hurricane center. Recon aircraft have yet to check out the system this morning, but will later in the morning.
What this means for Florida, less chance of a hurricane, but still something to keep watch on. If the system manages to hold itself together (it still may fall apart), then once it nears the islands it could strengthen some. Most likely though, it will remain weak throughout the next 4 to 5 days or so, but the uncertainty level with that is high. It will be important to monitor it throughout the week. Much depends on how intense (or not) the storm is, and intensity is the least understood element of hurricane forecasting.
Emily's forecast is likely to change again, and it is too soon to tell if it is in Florida's favor or not.
Outside of Emily, there is a wave in the eastern Atlantic that may develop next week, but nothing really elsewhere.
Feel free to reply to ask questions, or make observations.
Want to read Speculation, and best guesses? Check out the Forecast Lounge.
{{StormCarib}}
BoatUS
{{StormLinks|Emily|05|5|2011|2|Emily}}
Dominican Republic Meteorological
Martinique Radar Recording Emily/91L Approach (flhurricane)
Long term recording of Emily Floater Water Vapor Imagery (flhurricane)
Long term recording of Emily Floater Visible Imagery (flhurricane)
Long term recording of Caribbean Water Vapor Satellite Imagery of Emily (flhurricane)
Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee
11PM EDT 1 August 2011 Update
The 11PM mostly keeps everything the same, the track adjusted slightly to the right. There is a great deal of uncertainty, indeed the official discussion brings up the weaker system keeping it further west, vs the stronger system heading north into the ridge weakness sooner. In short, not much different from the earlier advisory.
Initial thoughts are that Emily will stay to the east of Florida. Looking at the 500MB setup in the 12Z Euro, the pattern looks a lot like the 18Z GFS, with a weakness developing in the western Atlantic. Not a huge trough, per se, but enough of a weakness to take Emily slowly northward after coming out of the Greater Antilles. But this really depends on how far west it goes, if it is further west than the forecast track states in the morning, Florida gets back into it again, if Hispaniola does not destroy the system.
As far as intensity is concerned, just gradual slow either maintenance or slight strengthening for the near term. Upper air just isn't good to support any rapid increases. Maybe a few random bursts from time to time until it gets out of the Caribbean.
However, most of the state of Florida is in the cone, and it is important to monitor this system closely.
We'll update in the morning.
Original Update
Hurricane Hunter Aircraft have finally closed off a circulation center in the wave area known as 91L, with winds supporting Tropical Storm force. Thus, Tropical Storm Emily (2011 edition) is born.
Tropical Storm Warnings up for:
Dominica
Guadaloupe, Desirade, Les Saintes, Marie Galante
Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
and the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Watches up for:
U.S. Virgin Islands
St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Haiti
The current forecast cone takes the storm across the Caribbean and crosses over Hispaniola, which may serve to weaken (and hopefully destroy) the storm, but not without causing a great deal of trouble for Haiti.
Thursday it is projected to near the Southern Bahamas, and travel along the southwesterly side. Saturday it is projected to approach south Florida, and be very near the coast near west Palm beach Saturday late afternoon into evening. The average error at this far out is 250 miles either direction, so it is not a certain thing by any means, especially after 48 hours. Those in the potential cone area will want to make sure review your plan and hurricane supplies before the rush at the end of the week if this forecast verifies.
If the initial 7:30 PM official forecast were to pan out, Emily would move up the spine of the state, and potentially exit near Daytona Beach, which would include most of east Central Florida in the dirty side of the system. It is likely to change somewhat though, hopefully to the far east. (Although further westward motion is possible, those in Tampa and West coasts will want to keep an eye on it as well). If it were to change, it would most likely move further east toward the Bahamas, but it is important to stay informed to see what happens to the forecast, especially when the system eventually leaves the Caribbean.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 12:04 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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Fascinating meteorology apparent with 91L's naming. Late this afternoon, a small plume of colder cloud tops erupted around the NE quadrant of the low level swirl that had been ejected out of the overnight general region of ill-looking convection. This then wrapped around the N side continuing to develop, and has apparently recently subsumed the vortex altogether.
I believe that prior to this recovery in development 91L was both too large, and too close in proximity to SAL. The former retarded development because it had more than one vortex vying for development and these interfered with one another; the latter is a dust/dry air concern. During the day, numerous arcus clouds could be seen emanating from the occasional convective elements, and this is consistent with dry air entrainment.
With the low level circulation accelerating away from these two mitigating factors, it is interesting to see this rapid response. We'll see if it persists, but with ample oceanic heat content and sufficient anticyclonic motion noted in the u/a analysis, there doesn't appear to be any hugely mitigating circumstance for the time being. That may be why a lot of the intensity guidance still insists on Cat 1 or 2 status conflicting with the land masses along and west of the Puerto Rico archipelago.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 01:01 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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Tonight's Upper Air Sounding, Skew-T from Le Raizet, Guadaloupe shows dry air at the 400mb level or about 22,000 feet. That's the narrow angle that goes off to the left side of the diagram between the 400 and 500 mb marks on the left sidebar.
Lines close together indicate moist air and lines spaced apart are drier air.
This data is taken from a weather balloon launched from the ground, and is the opposite measurement of the atmosphere compared to a Hurricane dropsonde. The dropsonde falls through the system, and the weather balloon rises through the system.
The wind barbs on the right side bar are cyclonic, possibly/ probably storm connected, up to the 200 mb level where they become anticyclonic to a height of 100 millibars, or about 50,000 feet.
I believe this type sounding is conducive to some intensification. A Met could probably give us more information along that line.
Anticyclonic winds above cyclonic winds gives the system an exhaust or ventilation.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 01:57 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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Emily has continued to ramp up throughout the evening. Sort of mesmerizing to see if she maintains this overnight.
I noticed that green is beginning to pop out on the funk top
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/ft-l.jpg
If that continues we could have a much stronger storm by morning. There is a diving trough right now, it will be interesting to see if Emily pulls more to the north away from her stubborn westward movement.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 02:47 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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The 11PM mostly keeps everything the same, the track adjusted slightly to the right. There is a great deal of uncertainty, indeed the official discussion brings up the weaker system keeping it further west, vs the stronger system heading north into the ridge weakness sooner. In short, not much different from the earlier advisory.
My initial thoughts are that Emily will stay to the east of Florida. Looking at the 500MB setup in the 12Z Euro, the pattern looks a lot like the 18Z GFS, with a weakness developing in the western Atlantic. Not a huge trough, per se, but enough of a weakness to take Emily slowly northward after coming out of the Greater Antilles. But this really depends on how far west it goes, if it is further west than the forecast track states in the morning, Florida gets back into it again, if Hispaniola does not destroy the system.
As far as intensity is concerned, just gradual slow either maintenance or slight strengthening for the near term. Upper air just isn't good to support any rapid increases. Maybe a few random bursts from time to time until it gets out of the Caribbean.
We'll update in the morning.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 02:55 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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It appears that the westward movement is keeping her alive. Based on the SAL dry air to the north of the storm.
Lois referred to the 'green' on the Funk Top satellite enhancement. I've included the latest Funk Top shot below. It basically indicates the towering higher cloud tops.
The mid/ upper level of Emily should have cleared the mountainous terrain of the Islands, for the most part. The current Center appears to be in the doughnut shaped area to the left of the Green or Blue. Depending on which shot you are viewing.
What is strange is the indentation on the western/ front side of Emily. I believe that the storm is ingesting dry air at some level leaving the satellite signature looking like the cookie monster took a bite out of the western side of Emily.
It's evident on all of the imagery that I have looked at tonight.
Dry air entrainment at it's best. Once Emily moves the main convection into the Eastern Caribbean the flow across Puerto Rico should diminish some of the dry air. Unless she turns NW.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 10:47 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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She is looking a bit ragged as of 0646 EDT, with what looks like a cut of dry air intruding from the north and cutting into convection to the west. Only time will tell.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 11:19 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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Just turned on visible recording
Long term recording of Emily Floater Visible Imagery (flhurricane)
Older recordings (Both still active)
Martinique Radar Recording Emily/91L Approach (flhurricane) -- will be shut off at 1PM.
Long term recording of Emily Floater Water Vapor Imagery (flhurricane)
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 12:16 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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Looking at this morning's imagary, I could not help but worry that the center might be farther back and closer to ( or under ) the newly bursting convection. In fact, as of 8:00am NHC put out an intermediate that recon has relocated the center to 15.3N and 63.7W. Though reports still claim unorganized, I cannot help but perceive that Emily may now be getting more organized. Despite a possible entrainment of dryer air and some shear at the 300mb level, upper 200mb level outflow looks fairly impressive in nearly all quadrants. Whether or not the system might be becoming more vertically stacked, might also suggest a more right bias with regards to overall motion. The BAMS and BAMM might be then less considered. One thing seems evident, and that is that the overall environment seems to be moistening up.
| adam s |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 12:45 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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The next 12 to 24 hours for Emily is critical for the survival of this storm. Emily must win the battle of beating the shear and dry air to survive. If Emily can cross the island hispaniola intact then the storm can reach Hurricane status.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 01:23 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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Emily looks a lot better than 24hrs ago. Some under cutting Atlantic Basin (I call it) shear at the 300mb levels but she has plenty of moisture to work with right now compared to 1 day ago.
Models though are backing away on development.. especially GFS.
I agree that what she does over the next 24hrs in intensity could determine
her movement in the carribean. Stronger system will begin to move more WNW then
NW into Hispaniola.. a more weaker TS or trough will move towards Jamaica-Cuba and
models seem to shear this out.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 01:39 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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Yeah, I think the models were run before the new burst of convection and what appears to be her center.. recon will or won't confirm that this morning. The discussion this morning was also written before the first great visibles.
Something is going on with Emily and if this trend continues she may make the trek after all.
Question is which way is she moving. Hard to tell movement when a storm is relocating or still in infancy stage.
The green on funk top last night was followed by a great presentation on both visible and water vapor imagery.
I think we have a keeper... will see. Can't wait to see the discussion at 11 and what recon finds with the data when it's all been gone over.
For now.. .she is the healthiest I have seen her since the split personality phase... can she stay together?
The dust is there, so is shear but that's par for the course with tropical storms in early August.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 01:46 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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Hard to see at 945am exactly where the center is.. according to recon it was around 15.3 and 63.7W for the 8am adv....
LLC could be on the NW edge of the main ball of convection... but it could of kept slowing down and be in the main area.. hard to tell for me.
| adam s |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 01:56 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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Unless we get an exact location of the center of Tropical Storm Emily I would not trust any models at this time. The models for this storm are in disagreement as far as the intensity, location and survival of Emily.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 02:09 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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Quote:The center fix from recon was SE of where they thought it was (which puts it pretty much directly under the CDO), so that will affect the next model runs and also pretty much makes the previous runs irrelevant at this point. It will be interesting to see what the 12Z runs look like.
Unless we get an exact location of the center of Tropical Storm Emily I would not trust any models at this time. The models for this storm are in disagreement as far as the intensity, location and survival of Emily.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 02:21 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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a cdo is forming nicely, this should be a mute point pretty soon as long as she maintains it
if that is not her center, i cannot imagine what is and if it is... she's got a nice cdo
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ft.html
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 02:23 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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Dont know why I see no pressure reports outside of the vortex report...I guess they have some technical issues?
Anyways... the convection looks nice and all near the LLC.. but if the pressure doesn't respond
and drop.. then makes me wonder if this is more of a low-midlevel vortex and it's just not
fully stacked correctly to the surface. If so, this will degenerate into a trough by 70W.. I guess
today and tonight will tell.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 02:45 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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Confirmed by the Recon
Displacement of Sfc. Center From Flt. Lvl. Center: Surface center is 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NW (310°) from the flight level center
Pressure 1008mb so this may look nice on satellite.. it has not getting stronger.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 02:57 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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Emily is stationary at the 11AM advisory, which unfortunately, means the future still remains cloudy for now. The split system issue from Sunday is still plaguing development even today.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 02:59 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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Let's not forget that down the road Emily has to cross a pretty mountainous chunk of land so she might not make it at all. There is also a large area of dry air to the NW of Emily's currently location. Oddly historical data suggests a more westerly path putting her in the GOM. She is looking better with a CDO and some outflow, at one point yesterday it looked like she was going to fall completely apart. Now a more westerly path will allowing for strengthening where the current forecast path of NW (becoming NNW over time) looks to keep her weak. 11AM update indicates she is reorganizing but stalled right now.
| adam s |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 03:18 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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If Emily remains stationary for a 12 hour period the less confidence I have with the models of this storm. None of the models ever called for a stationary movement of Emily.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 03:36 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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Models that don't have solid (recon dropsonde) data upon initialization generally do poorly with storm forecasting.
As the recons occur, and data becomes more frequent, the models generally do a much better job.
Give them time - it's not as simple as looking at satellite images and saying "oh yeah, it's going to do this".
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 03:46 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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Contrary to what NHC is indicating , satellite presentation of the IR JSL floater would make me think that I'm looking at a warm spot forming. It would not shock me, if we were to witness the mid level center to suddenly work itself to the surface, and show a 10-12 mb drop in pressure by this evening.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 04:04 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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Latest fix from 1 hour ago shows it went from 10 to 5 miles 1,500 ft center to surface center with 1 mile accuracy. Winds are near 45-50mph.. but pressure supports 35-40mph system.. I would then compromise on a 40-45mph storm with gust near 50.
Latest GFS out to 48hrs has landfall near DR-Haiti boarder... it does another blow up of convection tonight and pressure down to 1005mb by Weds morning and maybe even lower by landfall later Weds night.(GFS maps usually do show a higher pressure then what a system really is)...
We will see what happens to the system tonight. I think what is more important though than the models is the near term pressure of the system. Lets see if it gets its act together and pressure drops.. once and if that does occur..we can determine what this might do and where it may go. Right now.. any decrease in convection could weaken this to a LLT with a midlevel dying circulation.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 04:05 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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Note that the latest Recon at 1505Z had a position fix at 15.3N 64.0W. Emily is still moving slowly westward.
ED
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 04:15 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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Thanks Ed... appreciate that statement on reality because local media is sending out texts to everyone in Miami that Emily has stalled.... giving people jitters 1,000 miles away.
Just have to wait it out...
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 04:19 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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Not making a forecast here.. just a statement.. but if this gets past 72deg W when making landfall.. it could be a determining factor of how much it holds together. I feel it if makes landfall around 70-71W (aka GFS12z run) it will go over the highest mountains of Hispaniola and weaken the system more to then push more Westerly over more landmass compared to it holding together more as the GFS indicates. Further west like past 72W will interact with less land and be just NE of CUBA Thurs evening and making its way WNW more so.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 04:31 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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a lot of factors.... for one.... if it gets further west and stays south of the track or even within the southwestern most edge of the cone the water temps could influence emily and she could strengthen deeper than she is
she currently has a green dot directly in the middle of what looks like her center moving west
with or w/o a pressure drop she is impressive for now
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 04:57 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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Another Recon has left St Croix, and this one is reporting pressure data on the route which will be helpful
| Joeyfl |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 05:45 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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I think its little to soon to say this is going to fish north away from land. This storm really needs to be watched. I think we will have a better idea 24-48hrs where this will go. Unless this thing really ramps up and gains some latitude in next 24 hrs I really don't think its going as quickly pole ward as some models suggest. I also find it a little hard to believe that the lowest pressure is 1007mb. Buoy 42059 a good 150-200 miles west and is reporting 1008mb and falling. I feel we will see pressure drop on next recon and up tick in winds too.
| JoshuaK |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 06:07 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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Latest Satellite shows convection and outflow expanding overall, but with some dry air entrainment still going on in the SW quadrant I'd say, although WV Loops show the dry air being pushed back over P-Rico and Haiti.
EDIT: 2 AM Advisory has winds up to 45 MPH, Pressure down to 1006 MB, and a westward motion at 12 mph.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 06:22 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 18:13Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2011
Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 02
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 17:48:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°38'N 64°47'W (15.6333N 64.7833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 210 miles (338 km) to the SSE (156°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 49kts (~ 56.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the NE (52°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 113° at 51kts (From the ESE at ~ 58.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the NE (52°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1006mb (29.71 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 305m (1,001ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 307m (1,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:35:10Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Notes:
The Inside Eye/ Center Temp and the Outside Eye/Center Temps are opposite what they should be. Inside Eye/ Center Temp should be equal to or Higher than the outside Eye/ Center Temp. This gives some indication that the system isn't fully functioning as a vacuum.
The dry air entrainment on the SW side could be causing this.
Centers are within 5 miles of each other now.
Observation is from 1000 feet above sea level so the Maximum Flight Level Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph) should equate to a surface wind speed of 53 to 54 mph. Using a 90% reduction factor. After checking. The 54 mph is what the SFMR surface wind speed estimate is at the 58.7 mph spot wind location.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 06:39 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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I noticed that about the temps as well in/out, but the other thing that is strange is that the pressure barely rose 1mb as the plane flew SW. It has now turned due E and the pressure is starting to go down well south of where the last vortex was located. I think we might have the center trying to relocate to where the first plane today found a center south of the others
| adam s |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 06:52 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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Emily is now getting organized and winds are at 45 mph with a west movement of 12mph. How strong do you think Emily will get before getting near the island of Hispaniola?
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 07:08 PM |
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Emily
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I'm seeing fairly rapid pressure falls at the buoys over the last 3 hours. I almost looks like someone threw a switch and turned on a vacuum.
I'm still not sure the storm will pass over Hispaniola. Possibly the western tip of Haiti and Eastern Cuba. Winds, based on the latest SHIPS model. Should be in the 55 mph range. But homes in Haiti aren't necessarily built for those winds. And quite a large number of people are still without decent shelter since the Earthquake.
Latest SHIPS model indicates the shear and most of the other inhibiting factors should decrease or drop in 6 hours. I believe this will coincide with Dmin, or the diurnal minimum in a storm cycle. Weaker or fewer thunderstorms.
We will have to wait and see what happens then.
See Clark's answer to the definaition of D max and D min.
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=25541&an=0&page=1#25541
If you live on the Florida Peninsula you may want to go over your Hurricane Plan. And check the fuel, water and grocery supplies. Just in case.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 07:21 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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While still weak the outflow is impressive for a storm that has yet to find a true center to wrap around. She's got a small window to gain some strength before running into plenty of obstacles in the form of dry air, plus mountains. Looks 50/50 to me... I still think she has much chance as falling completely apart as she does spinning up into a stronger TS. The factors for intensification are there, just too sloppy near the core to make it happen right now.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 02 2011 08:45 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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5:00 PM AST Tue Aug 2
Location: 15.8°N 65.4°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2011
...EMILY A LITTLE STRONGER...BUT STILL NOT WELL ORGANIZED...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 65.4W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
| Joeyfl |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 01:06 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
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I cant stress enough that southeast coast/FL needs to watch this closely. Interesting models coming in much closer to FL this evening. Of coarse this is one of many runs and models will continue to flip flop but a lot of obstacles in the way of this one. I would expect maybe a slight shift west in track at 11 just to be closer to consensus.
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 02:29 AM |
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Re: Emily
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Was looking at the model loop from the past day or so. It nicely shows the models flipping back and forth a bit from east to west. If I have the general idea correct, a stronger Emily is more likely to recurve up the east coast and miss everything but the Bahamas, while a weaker storm may hedge more to the west, keeping Florida in the game. So if Hispanola weakens her, does the track shift back west and why don't the models predict this? Or do I have it all wrong?
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 02:44 AM |
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Re: Emily
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The official forecast didn't change much at 11, just extended out further another point, but following the curve, it's going to be close, but odds still favor the east of US landfall side, but it will be dangerously close and must be watched closely. It may be close enough for Tropical Storm watches to be put up in part of East Central, or South Florida Late Thursday or Friday. Luckily the western side of the storm in a northward traveling system is usually the weaker side.
This advisory now places Georgia, North and South Carolina, and Southeast Virginia inside the cone of uncertainty. Anyone in the cone should be keeping up with developments on Emily.
However, for those in the Bahamas, as there are now Tropical Storm Warnings up for the Southeast Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos Islands.
New Full Update tomorrow morning.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 02:47 AM |
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Re: Emily
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No, generally speaking you've got it right. I'm guessing that the thinking is that by the time that Emily leaves Hispaniola, even a weaker system would still be influenced enough by the trough to pull it northward, although my inclination with a weaker system would be to add a little more of a westerly component to that northerly motion.
ED
| Joeyfl |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 03:17 AM |
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Re: Emily
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Nam has done 180 now bringing it into south FL 12z Sat. Be interesting to see if others follow suite tonight...
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 05:04 AM |
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Re: Emily Heads For ??
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The GFS now takes Emily further to the east. Of far more interest is that the movement in the past 6 hours has been just about due west at 12 knots. Water vapor indicates about 9 degrees of separation between the base of the trough and the center of the tropical storm - and that is still quite a bit. The trough may dig a little further south, but not much. The NHC forecast places the center of Emily onshore the Dominican Republic in about 19 hours - which is going to be a bit of a stretch if the western motion continues tonight.
ED
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 05:08 AM |
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Re: Emily Heads For ??
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good point on degrees of separation...
as for the turn being sharp it would have to make a sharp turn ala Cleo if the western movement doesn't stop
something... doesn't jive on the timing and i think the models moving around reflect that there is a problem
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 05:16 AM |
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Re: Emily Heads For ??
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Quote:
The GFS now takes Emily further to the east. Of far more interest is that the movement in the past 6 hours has been just about due west at 12 knots. Water vapor indicates about 9 degrees of separation between the base of the trough and the center of the tropical storm - and that is still quite a bit. The trough may dig a little further south, but not much. The NHC forecast places the center of Emily onshore the Dominican Republic in about 19 hours - which is going to be a bit of a stretch if the western motion continues tonight.
ED
0z GFS is slightly west and slower of the 18Z or even though 12Z GFS.
Be interesting how far west this gets. I still say the main factor will be where it
makes landfall in Hispaniola.. if it can get past 71.5W on the Haiti side.. then
it will be further west in days 3-4 and might make 80W. Short term movement
over the next 24hrs will be key.