CFHC Talkback For News Story #6:
Newest Talkback: 06:46 PM 05-10 EDT

Will this Be the Year?
10:23 PM EDT - 28 April 2002 | Fifty-seven Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments
| Newest: 06:46 PM 05-10 EDT

Actually, for a major system the answer is probably not. But this does not forgoe the need for education and preperations on a possible major system. Once again I must state my distaste for general overhyping of hurricanes by media or elsewhere. It must be tempered with facts to balance it out.

Most of the time, storms will approach and turn away, most of the time what we do get will be relatively minor, but every once in a while (thankfully it is fairly rare) a major one, such as Andrew, does come by, and in these instances all of the preperation pays off. Educating yourself on what these storms can't do, and don't usually do is just as much important on what they can. People tend to focus on the destruction that these are capable of rather than what they usually do.

Hyping leads to apathy when something that really has the potential of causing havoc approaches. And once again this is more of a fear to me rather than the actual system itself. If a dangerous storm approached and most listened to the warnings, then the destruction and death would be kept to a minimum. On the other hand, if after a string of missed calls, people were apathetic or not watching and something did come along... even a lesser system (ie a cat 3 vs a 4) is capable of causing more widespread havoc then as far as people's lives are concerned.

Many people will ask, I'm going to visit Florida on such and such date... will a storm hit then? I tell them no, but always watch the weather, it could change. These events are rare usually. One strange year could have us seeing multiple bad storms, or we could go for a string of a decade or more without a massive one hitting. Our goal isn't to create hype, or tell you that this is THE YEAR. Our goal is to give you facts from various weather sources, and opinions from us and others, and let you decide.

We try to refrain from getting caught up "in the hype", but we won't downplay possibilities either. If you agree or disagree with what people are saying about a particular system, then this forum gives you a chance to state why. And in hopes, educate others and allow them the final decision. We always state to listed to the official sources first, but as a supplimental guide, you and I can help prepare everyone.

Thanks to all who have visited our site in the past 7 years. We are designing a new back end system to help manage the volume and the signal to noise ratio during the season. We have created off topic areas for those who talk and eventually go way off topic. Those who spam repeatedly the same message over and over will be removed, and everyone else can talk storms and learn, and have fun.


- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #57 (of 57 total)

2002 (#1)
Posted by:
Posted On 07:58AM 29-Apr-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQUS*)
Will this be the year? A question that can't be answered unless she is Mother Nature. I would say the odds are good for someone to be hit by a major Hurricane this year. I would also say the ingredients are there this year to allow for development of Major Hurricanes. QBO,SST,SLP and the most important NO or mild El Nino. So keep your guard up because this could be the year.

Re: Could this be the year? (#2)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 08:38AM 29-Apr-2002 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNRPT*)
Mike...excellent comments about the media hype and the apathy of the citizens of, IMHO, the Sunshine State. We have seen several storms since Andrew hit in 1992 that have come thisclose to hitting us, but thankfully turned away at the last, Floyd. However, because they turned away, people I talk to "out there" seem to think that this will always be the case. Or, because we live inland, we won't be hit hard. It takes a lot of explaining (and exasperation) to try and educate these folks that if a Cat 4 or 5 comes barreling across the state, we aren't safe no matter HOW far inland we are. Then, again...people get this fake sense of security because there are idiots out there in radio land that talk about how the "gulfstream" keeps these storms from hitting Florida. That happened almost 3 years ago with Floyd..this radio station in Orlando went on the air AFTER Floyd hit and said that the reason it turned away was because the gulfstream was too "strong".

Hot!!! (#3)
Posted by: Shawn Location: Pearland,Tx
Posted On 04:02PM 29-Apr-2002 with id (RTNRTRNRSSNUS*)
I can't believe how hot it is here for this time of year.I think we are suppose to break a record high today;by a bunch!

Gulf Stream (#4)
Posted by: robert
Posted On 07:07PM 29-Apr-2002 with id (VWNSTNRPRNRQT*)
i agree and disagree the weather systems that steers hurricanes drive the gulf stream so when floyd turned northwest becuse of the approching trough there was probally a southwest wind in the southeast gulf driving the gulf stream a bit stronger then normal. I no the gulf stream didnt turn floyd but it a screwy way of thinkin about it

1st Tornado death (#5)
Posted by: robert
Posted On 07:13PM 29-Apr-2002 with id (VWNSTNRPRNRQT*)
Well the 1st tornado death has finally happend wich makes this the longest the us ahas gone into a year without a otrnado death. An interesting thing is that the resulst is due diffrent storm tracks from the norm instead they arfe further west in less populated areas could this be a clue into what are hurricane season might be like?

Is this the year? (#6)
Posted by: Derek Location: orlando, Florida
Posted On 08:43AM 30-Apr-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNTW*)
I think there is a good chance that a major hurricane will come bearing down on Florida this year. El nino is not that strong and that makes it easier for hurricanes to develope. The only way will know if it's going to happen is when it eventually developes and moves across the Atlantic. Until then we need to be as prepared as we can and if it does happen we will know what to do. What I think is just an opinion, but i got it from the weather channel. They said that Florida has a 60% chance of getting hit by a hurricane. And a 57% chance of getting hit by a Cat. 3,4, or 5 this year. Lets just keep our fingers crossed that this will not be the case.

Complacent (#7)
Posted by: Rad Location: St Pete Beach
Posted On 11:40AM 30-Apr-2002 with id (VUNSTNXXNQVW*)
Is the word I am looking for , too many people get this way, As far as Hurricanes go. Especially the old Florida "CRACKERS" They have seen them come and seen them go . The tourist will flee, the transplants will be some what hesitant and I would say that there is a good majority of people living in Florida right now that have never experienced a "Hurricane" My concern is the evacuation , If a cat 4 or 5 storm would come into Pinellas county right now there would not be much left . Over the past few years it has been getting harder and harder to Drive around this county anymore. I have never seen so many backups and traffic jams in my 35 years of living here {yes I am a "CRACKER"} Not complaining , as I stated earlier the EVACUATION. People need to get out . Personally I will stay for a CAT 3 alot depends on landfall etc, etc. But a 4 or 5 {Hopefully Never} and I am gone. I just hope that everybody else can safely get off this peninsula too. Personaly on the upcoming season , 6 in one, and half a dozen in the other . We shall see what happens around my neck of the woods come September and October .

complaceny this prepare for that spam crap (#8)
Posted by: robert
Posted On 07:53PM 30-Apr-2002 with id (VWNSTNSNVU*)
im bored lets get a storm out there so i can start saying its headed for me lol. i feel the wave mongoring in me coming out :-)
just a month away so close yet so far

Wild Afternoon (#9)
Posted by:
clyde Location: orlando
Posted On 11:22PM 30-Apr-2002 with id (VUNSSNQVRNRQU*)
Just wanted to hop on and post a quick note...for anyone who heard about the storms in east Orlando today (approx. 100 homes damaged). I had a birds-eye view from the 6th floor of my office of the storm; the damage occured about 1/4 mile away in a nearby subdivision. We had winds gusting to 80-90 mph for about 10 minutes, and to 50 mph for another 10 minutes after that, along with significant marble to golfball sized hail. Many trees down in our lot and surrounding roads.

Local newstations are saying possible tornado, but this looked more like straightline winds, although much more powerful than anything I've ever witnessed previously. From the 6th floor it was quite a rush...until we all found out later all the homes that were damaged. Still, to think that what I saw today would pale in comparison to a cat. 2/3 hurricane really humbles you.

Anxiously awaiting June...
Clyde W.

tornadoes (#10)
Posted by: HanKFranK Location: AiKeN, SC
Posted On 11:54PM 30-Apr-2002 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNQSX*)
just a curiosity.. anybody know if there is a correllation between a late-starting severe weather season in the u.s. and the hurricane season? or to the configuration of storm tracks in the late summer and fall?q

Someone Will Get Blasted (#11)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: palm bay, FL
Posted On 01:18PM 01-May-2002 with id (QUUNQPTNRSYNQV*)
IMO this hurricane season has the potential to se a landfall of a Cat 4 hurricane somewhere in the CONUS, perhaps Cat 5. Could be a heck of a season, if El Nino is weak. BTW, is NOAA going release a forecast for 2002. Cheers!!

Clyde (#12)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg,FL
Posted On 03:18PM 01-May-2002 with id (VVNQYNWVNRY*)
I was tracking those storms with my radar software and showed a tornadic signiture along with large hail. It showed a meso signiture for over an hour with tops nearing 50,000ft. One more month to go.

Rad (#13)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg,FL
Posted On 03:27PM 01-May-2002 with id (VVNQYNWVNRY*)
The trafic is bad especially out towards the beach. It takes me just about 45 mintues(tourist) to get from st.pete to st.pete beach. And who knows whats going to happen when we get that strong hurricane.

Posted by:
Posted On 05:09PM 01-May-2002 with id (QURNQVSNRPVNQWY*)
Last year wasn't Allison before June. I had a bet with a friend and I thought Allison was in May. Will this year be more spread out, throughout the season or will there be an early spurt and then a big lull? I sure don't know but I sure hope I'm not twidling my thumbs through June and July like last year.

Joe (#15)
Posted by:
Clyde Location: Orlando
Posted On 05:46PM 01-May-2002 with id (TNQWNRUPNU*)
Hey Joe--looking at the damage pattern today on the drive in, I am reasonably sure that this was a straightline wind situation. Everything is blown down from north to south on both sides of the main damage.

I noted the rotation of the wall cloud as it approached, there was definite rotation. I wonder if it was a macroburst. Anyway, fun to know that someone was tracking what I was living yesterday!

Until June...Clyde

Allison (#16)
Posted by:
Rich Byett ( Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 06:09PM 01-May-2002 with id (RQSNQRRNVTNWY*)

Allison was the first storm of the season last year, but was not named until the 5th of June. However her origins can be traced back to a Tropical Wave that moved across the Atlantic and Central America in the last few days of may.

article (#17)
Posted by: HanKFranK Location: AiKeN, SC
Posted On 12:05AM 02-May-2002 with id (RPWNQTTNQWXNSY*)
check out the latest article about el nino by joe d'aleo at
if el nino is going to get going this year, it is running out of time. past failed el nino's have led to extremely hot summers in the u.s. what it means specifically for the hurricane season isn't mentioned, though there are some other articles about possibilities for tropical weather this year.
by the way--if you like bastardi, you'll probably like this guy.

Changes (#18)
Posted by: Shawn Location: Pearland,Tx
Posted On 11:45AM 02-May-2002 with id (RTNRTRNRSSNUS*)
I sure hope the air patterns change by June 1 because if they don't it could be quite boring to start the season.There is nothing out there right now!It's tough to even find any clouds anywhere!

El Nino Link (#19)
Posted by: Dave Location: Cocoa Beach
Posted On 01:54PM 02-May-2002 with id (QRNTQNYQNRST*)
Here is some great info on El Nino.

It has been a scorcher in Cocoa Beach the last two weeks

Excellent Dave, Thanks for the LINK! (#20)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: palm bay, FL
Posted On 05:54PM 02-May-2002 with id (QUUNQPTNRSYNQV*)
This will have to be watched during the next few months. With weak El Nino we could see an extremely active season. Also the numbers may go up just for the fact that we are in summer mode here in the SE US. Conditions are close for tropical development and due to the extended period of above normal temps, we will have more days of "potential" tropical development, in which we could see more cycles of pattern shifts (MJO/TUTT lows/Westerly QBO/etc). Like they say, ya hang around the barber shop long enuf, ya might just get a hair cut. Will be an interesting season.

thanks (#21)
Posted by: gofin
Posted On 08:18PM 02-May-2002 with id (RPWNVYNQQTNRQ*)
thanks for a great hurricane site!! Looking forward to the new season

hailstorm (#22)
Posted by: HanKFranK Location: AiKeN, SC
Posted On 01:51AM 04-May-2002 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNQUU*)
had a pretty good storm here around 7pm friday. a few gusts probably around 45mph, a few limbs down. fast moving storm put down some marble to golfball sized hail this side of town, other storms in the same complex caused wind damage and there were also a couple of unconfirmed funnel cloud reports. hailstones bounced off everything, but no damage to the cars. dog and cats scared senseless, chickens clouted but ok, and maybe a little damage to dad's beloved vegetable garden. my bro is disappointed, he wanted an excuse to file and insurance claim for his already cracked windshield.
anyhow, nice little rush to hold me over for the off season.

Posted by:
Posted On 03:30PM 04-May-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNUQ*)
I don't remember it being this HOT & DRY from April to May in South Florida. This is sure not a prerequsit for an El Nino year. I don't remember the last time it rained here and that's unusual. Just my gut feeling, but I think Hurricanes are going to be rolling this year and not late. Everybody be prepared and safe this year. See ya in June.

Changes (#24)
Posted by: Shawn Location: Pearland,Tx
Posted On 03:41PM 04-May-2002 with id (RTNRTRNRSSNUS*)
The air patterns are going to have to change in the next month for us to have a quick start to the season.There seems to be a blocking pattern right now that is not allowing for any storms to even start to fire up in the GOM or the Caribbean.When will it change?

Shawn... (#25)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie
Posted On 03:50AM 05-May-2002 with id (VWNRTYNUUNSV*)

This is only through 4/27, but you can see the anomoly of +2.5 for northern Gulf waters. I say the Gulf is being microwaved right now.


Steve (#26)
Posted by: Shawn Location: Pearland,Tx
Posted On 01:10PM 05-May-2002 with id (RTNRTRNRSSNUS*)
I have noticed how warm the GOM is right now but that seems to be the only thing in favor of development at this point.There looks to be alot of dry air in the GOM and Caribbean and it has been that way for a while now.I could be wrong,but it seems that until this pattern changes,it wouldn't matter if it was Sep. 1;we would have nothing.Do you see any changes coming soon.I have to admit,I would like to see a quick start to the season.

Looks Can Be Deceiving... (#27)
Posted by:
TropicalWxWatcher Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
Posted On 02:09PM 05-May-2002 with id (VVNQUWNWRNQXR*)
Over the past month, we have noticed a cool down of sea surface temperatures across most of the EPAC. This has caused a lot of people to change their minds about the strength of this years forecasted El Nino. I have been monitoring the progess of El Nino by looking at a lot of data over the past six months. In February, a kelvin wave moved from the west and central Pacific, all the way to the coast of South America. This wave transported warmer water to the EPAC from the warmer WPAC. We saw a pretty dramatic increase in ssts off the South American coast once the wave made its way that far east.

Take a look at the latest Sea surface temperature anomolies:

In this link, you will notice relatively cooler than average ssts in the EPAC. However, if you look farther west, you will see a large area of warm anomolies in the central and western Pacific Ocean. If a kelvin wave were to orginate from the central or western Pacific, and slowly move eastward, we could see another sudden increase in the sea surface temperarautes in the EPAC. It would be similar to what happened in February.
Even with the recent cool down in the EPAC, don't believe that we won't see an El Nino phase just yet! However, it is getting late for El Nino to affect the season even if it were to begin to develop rapidly. I also believe that we will see a moderate El Nino at best. Once again, this all depends on whether or not we see another kelvin waves make its way all the way across the Pacific. If we don't see another kelvin wave, we could EASILY see neutral conditions throughout the 2002 season.

Gulf Of Mexico Ssts (#28)
Posted by:
TropicalWxWatcher Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
Posted On 02:12PM 05-May-2002 with id (VVNQUWNWRNQXR*)
As you all probably know, the GOM ssts have been well above normal over the past two months. Currenty, we have a big anticyclone over the western Caribbean. This is causing warmer than average temperatures across Central America, the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, there isn't much precipiation near this high pressure system. So expect the ssts in this region to continue to rise until the pattern changes. The high will likely move north and gradually begin to weaken with time.

Gulf (#29)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie
Posted On 07:10PM 05-May-2002 with id (VWNRTYNUUNRQY*)
>>I have noticed how warm the GOM is right now but that seems to be the only thing in favor of development at this point.There looks to be alot of dry air in the GOM and Caribbean and it has been that way for a while now.I could be wrong,but it seems that until this pattern changes,it wouldn't matter if it was Sep. 1;we would have nothing.Do you see any changes coming soon.I have to admit,I would like to see a quick start to the season.

Nothing is imminent. The Man [tm] is expecting another 7-10 days of 90-92/70-72 for our area with no rain. That should bump the Gulf temperature up another degree or two. I was in Panama City last week, and it was already pretty warm there for late April.

I say be patient and wait to see where the retrogressing mid-continental trof ends up. Some have speculated that we'll have another east coast trof this season, but I don't see that in the patterns yet. It's more likely going to have it's longitudal (sp?) axis somewhere between East Texas and Alabama - with obvious jolts to the east and west. I think the makings for a very interesting hurricane season for the northern Gulf Coast are coming together. But I'm just going to be counting down the days in the meantime (25 1/2 to go).


Water temps (#30)
Posted by: robert
Posted On 10:19PM 05-May-2002 with id (VWNSTNRPXNRSU*)
the water may seem warm but let me tell you its only at the sevice. i went snorkiling at the beach today and was in 15-20 feet of water and i dove to the bottom and it was in the low to mid 60's down on the bottom up to about 5 feet off the bottom

Andrew a 5 (#31)
Posted by: robert
Posted On 11:11AM 06-May-2002 with id (VWNSTNQXTNQTP*)
this is a post off of another website that was poseted today.

Reading the paper today (Orlando Sentinal) it appears that the TPC is considering upgrading Andrew to a 5 based on data before the costly hurricane pounded the Homestead area. Not a bad move IMO....but they should also look at Floyd as he approached the Florida east coast while causing havoc in the Bahamas. Pressure was low enough to be classified as a 5 but the wind speed still was classified as a 4. If you are going to upgrade Andrew you also have to upgrade Floyd. If both systems are upgraded to 5 status, maybe it will drive the point home on how dangerous a hurricane can be and maybe stop this complancey that appears to be running ramped especially in Florida.....TSTRM(Paul)

Another Hot One! (#32)
Posted by: Shawn Location: Pearland,Tx
Posted On 05:14PM 06-May-2002 with id (RTNRTRNRSSNUS*)
It's another scorcher here with no relief in site.I can't recall the last time I saw storm activity in the GOM.It sure has been quite a while ago,though.Sure hope things change pretty soon because this is boring!q

WAVES (#33)
Posted by: ROB H.
Posted On 11:14AM 07-May-2002 with id (VTNQPUNQWWNQWP*)
Three weak tropical waves have formed in atlantic,
is this a sign of things to come?

Yeah, it is... (#34)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie
Posted On 11:36AM 07-May-2002 with id (RPXNRTXNRSQNUX*)
But these are weak indeed. Here's an interesting blub from Bastardi today and his spring/summer opposite teleconnections:

>>Anyway, just lobbing a bomb here from way out, the continued evolution of the current pattern would stick a trof southwest from the lakes into the central plains, with a ridge from FLorida northeast toward the area northwest of Bermuda in the means, and a ridge over central and western Mexico to southwest of California. This would be accomplished by the continued backing of the major features that we see. Interestingly enough, the NWS summer probability scheme, adjusted for the decadal long warming that has been taking place, looks like its in agreement. Which means that its time for a big group hug and a chorus of Cumbaya.
This tells me that he sees a strong Bermuda Ridge. Following up on that, depending on its ebbs and flows relative to where a storm is at any given time, the Gulf should be open for business throughout the 2002 Hurricane Season.



Just a small Update (#35)
Posted by:
Mike C. ( Location: Orlando, FL
Posted On 12:15PM 07-May-2002 with id (VVNRQNRSSNQPV*)
Due to work and other issues the planned upgrade of the news system will probably not occur until the start of the season. I did some work on it, but it still needs more tweaking.

The new news system is mainly to help folks navigate people's postings better and to have a more robust system for moderation and moving posts. (I don't like deleting posts and would rather move them if they are too off topic). And of course...


Arguing with anonymous strangers on the Internet is a sucker's game because they almost always turn out to be--or to be indistinguishable from
--self-righteous sixteen-year-olds possessing infinite amounts of free time.
- Neal Stephenson

Maybe Soon? (#36)
Posted by: Shawn Location: Pearland,Tx
Posted On 04:01PM 07-May-2002 with id (RTNRTRNRSSNUS*)
I was looking at the latest water vapor and noticed that there looks to be some moisture coming up from Mexico and trying to enter the BOC.If this does happen,maybe we can get some clouds to form and then some storms pop up.The SST's are certainly warm enough to support some build up.Does anyone else agree?q

Shawn (#37)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 04:32PM 07-May-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQXQ*)
I did look at that...I was looking just west of 80 and it looks like a big blow up of storms; however, they look more like they are pushing to the west than anything else. Interesting though..because the EPAC season starts the 15th.


TOO SOON (#38)
Posted by:
Posted On 05:16PM 07-May-2002 with id (VTNQRNQPVNSS*)
You guys are barking at the moon. Come on every cloud/vapor. Be patient. Time will tell and I think this is going to be a banner year. In fact I think Grey will up his forecast by two the end of May. I might be going out on the limb but that's OK. Every factor that I looked at is positive or neutral for a banner year. Even the supposive El Nino that won't happen. QBO,SLP,SST,& the Azores High will be in place. Don't worry about the low SST off Africa I'm almost sure that was in place at the same time the last couple of years. It will change I grant you that. The EPAC will start probably late and since there is no El Nino we might beat them again this year. Later.....

Lonny (#39)
Posted by: Shawn Location: Pearland,Tx
Posted On 05:22PM 07-May-2002 with id (RTNRTRNRSSNUS*)
I'm not saying there will be development;I'm just saying it would be nice to see some clouds or storms out there to at least have SOMETHING to look at.It has been at least 3 weeks since we have had any good rain here.Any kind of rain would be a welcome site right now.q

Agree Lonny ---Too Soon (#40)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: palm bay, FL
Posted On 06:24PM 07-May-2002 with id (QUUNQPTNRSYNQV*)
However, we could sure use some rain here in Florida. Actually, conditions prior to an active season are quite typical now. Cloud free GOM and Caribbean will mean good solar heating. Some tropical waves beginning to show up in the Atlantic. Water off African coast just a tad below normal....not unusual for early May. It has been cool there due to a fetch from the north the last coupla months, but this should change soon as jet moves north. Things are as they should be. Tropical activity is coming, and probably more than we'd like to see. Cheers!!

CHANGE (#41)
Posted by:
Posted On 06:51PM 07-May-2002 with id (VTNQRNQPRNQWW*)
It looks like you'll get your wish Steve H. Computer models are showing the High that has been over us for what seems like forever, moving North. This should allow for a more favorable climate for more afternoon type thunder storms, starting next week. Will have to wait and see if the models have some truth this year. At least till next week.

el nino etc (#42)
Posted by: HanKFranK Location: AiKeN, SC
Posted On 01:03AM 08-May-2002 with id (RPWNQTTNQWXNVQ*)
there are now more negative sst anomalies between south america and 150w now than warm ones, though the equatorial central and western pac are still running a little warm. just funny how the sst anomalies this year are shadowing what they did last year. the weather pattern up here isnt the same though, so the mystery as to how this year will play out deepens.
anyhow, the bastardi summer weather configuration-speculation would make for an interesting season. if for a change we get a great lakes/mississippi valley trough instead of an east coast one, anything in the atlantic or gulf becomes that much more dangerous.
also, the ideas about a slack season due to el nino are starting to evaporate. end of the month the good doctor will revise his season forecast, and my thinking now is that he puts it back where he had it in december.
later, all.

June 1st.... (#43)
Posted by:
Frank P Location: Biloxi, MS
Posted On 02:12PM 08-May-2002 with id (QRNQSNRTXNT*)
Basically doesn't mean all that much. Don't get your hopes up that very much will happen in the tropics prior to mid August. Climatologically speaking, June and July are relatively quiet tropical months and if we get one or two named storms we will be doing good (or bad, depends on your perspective). I'll be glad if we could just get an afternoon shower on the MS Gulf Coast, its approaching drought conditions over here.

Hey Frank P! (#44)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie
Posted On 02:23PM 08-May-2002 with id (RPXNRTXNRSQNUX*)
What's up bro? Same here in N.O. I think we actually have a 20% chance of rain tomorrow or Friday. Rain's supposed to be coming sometime mid-next week.

You're right about June 1st, but you gotta refresh my memory. Didn't someone of national note go on record predicting some early activity this year?


Frank P. and Steve! (#45)
Posted by: Shawn Location: Pearland,Tx
Posted On 02:41PM 08-May-2002 with id (RTNRTRNRSSNUS*)
I'm going to make a crazy prediction here but I think there will be some rain coming from the BOC area that may hit you all.I'm NOT saying any tropical development but at least some showers that will help cool things down.There is some moisture starting to move into the BOC now.I'm like ya'll are right now;I'll take any kinda rain!

Alicia? (#46)
Posted by: Rich Location: New Orleans
Posted On 03:12PM 08-May-2002 with id (QRNUNQNR*)
Could someone refresh my memory...wasn't it a hot and dry pattern along the Gulf Coast when Hurricane Alicia came ashore in SE Texas?

Rich... (#47)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie
Posted On 03:21PM 08-May-2002 with id (RPXNRTXNRSQNUX*)
>>Could someone refresh my memory...wasn't it a hot and dry pattern along the Gulf Coast when Hurricane Alicia came ashore in SE Texas?

That's one for the anals, oops, I mean annals :)


I don't seen anything on the IR or Vis to indicate any rain. It only barely showed up on the WV and doesn't seem to be much more than juicy air. Of course I didn't go to a Mexican radar site down there to see if there was any precip.


Steve (#48)
Posted by: Shawn Location: Pearland,Tx
Posted On 03:46PM 08-May-2002 with id (RTNRTRNRSSNUS*)
You are right,I don't think it is rain,YET!It is a hunch that it will become that though.My fiance says I'm usually 50/50 on my hunches.We shall see.

50/50? (#49)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie
Posted On 04:06PM 08-May-2002 with id (RPXNRTXNRSQNUX*)
>>You are right,I don't think it is rain,YET!It is a hunch that it will become that though.My fiance says I'm usually 50/50 on my hunches.We shall see.

Well that's pretty good I guess if she intends to keep you.


Posted by:
Posted On 05:25PM 08-May-2002 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQWV*)
I was just reading, May 7 update for the upcoming season. The main reason their predictions are lower is stronger than normal trade winds in the Carribean and neutral SST in the North Atlantic. If you try to read their update you must have "Acrobat Reader" and a slow wait. I don't know who runs the site or the validity of this prediction but I guess their guess is as good as mine and I say a dangerous year. So I guess will wait and see. Be prepared no matter what.

Lonny... (#51)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie
Posted On 08:29PM 08-May-2002 with id (VXNPNURNRQV*)
Who We Are
Tropical Storm (TSR) is a venture which has developed from the UK government-supported TSUNAMI initiative project on seasonal tropical cyclone prediction. The TSR consortium comprises experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting. The TSR industry expertise is drawn from the Benfield Group, the leading independent reinsurance intermediary, Royal & SunAlliance, the global insurance group, and from Crawford & Company, a global provider of risk management services. The TSR scientific grouping brings together climate physicists, meteorologists and statisticians at UCL (University College London) and the Met Office.

TSR (#52)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: palm bay fl
Posted On 11:43PM 08-May-2002 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNUY*)
They will be wrong. Trades will ease. This isn't like 2000 when the strong easterlies shredded storms. Saying the trades will be stronger than normal based on the current pattern has as much validity as saying that the troughs will take residence in the plains this year. Nearly impossible at this point to forecast. That's not a convincing yardstick, and I wouldn't bet the mortgage on it. But I will say that there are enough favorable signals to say (barring a strong emergence of El Nino) that it will be a higher than average year for cyclone development. Time will ultimately tell. Cheers!!

Steve/Shawn.... my southern neighbors (#53)
Posted by:
Frank P Location: Biloxi, MS
Posted On 09:43AM 09-May-2002 with id (QRNQSNRTXNT*)
Hey Steve, maybe that new mayor ya got will bring in some rain for the cresent city... I hear that the LA Gov'n is asking the good people to say a another rain prayer... He did that last year and Allison pounded on us.....

Shawn, keep looking in the GOM for me and get us some rain... but not as much as that bad girl Allison of last year...I got about 60 mph winds from her, bad thing though I was doing a home roofing project.... Tar paper not rated for TS winds.. hehe

Locals weather dudes here are going with a 40% chance of rain on Monday due to an approaching front... we'll see.

One thing for sure, we going to have an exciting season on the board this year... cause we all make it so exciting...

c yall and keep on posting!

Still no rain (#54)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg,FL
Posted On 05:25PM 09-May-2002 with id (VVNQYNWVNUW*)
The heat goes on here in FL. I haven't seen a drop of rain since April 18 and that was only 0.02 inches...the last major rain was April 3 at 1.15 inches. The typical afternoon seabreeze storms don't start for another 4 to 6 weeks. Hot temps with 90 to 95 each afternoon and lows near a muggy and humid 70 degrees. This do to a strong upper level high pressure over the gulf. This has capped the atmosphere, thus no rain.q

Thunder Storms? (#55)
Posted by: Dave Location: Cocoa Beach
Posted On 09:45AM 10-May-2002 with id (QRNTQNYQNRST*)
It looks like in South America is getting some action.
ooopppsss (#56)
Posted by: Dave Location: Cocoa Beach
Posted On 09:46AM 10-May-2002 with id (QRNTQNYQNRST*)

Where's the Rain??? (#57)
Posted by: Shawn Location: Pearland,Tx
Posted On 06:46PM 10-May-2002 with id (RTNRTRNRSSNUS*)
Please someone give us some rain!!!

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