CFHC Talkback For News Story #6:
Newest Talkback: 06:46 PM 05-10 EDT

Will this Be the Year?
10:23 PM EDT - 28 April 2002 | Fifty-seven Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments
| Newest: 06:46 PM 05-10 EDT

Actually, for a major system the answer is probably not. But this does not forgoe the need for education and preperations on a possible major system. Once again I must state my distaste for general overhyping of hurricanes by media or elsewhere. It must be tempered with facts to balance it out.

Most of the time, storms will approach and turn away, most of the time what we do get will be relatively minor, but every once in a while (thankfully it is fairly rare) a major one, such as Andrew, does come by, and in these instances all of the preperation pays off. Educating yourself on what these storms can't do, and don't usually do is just as much important on what they can. People tend to focus on the destruction that these are capable of rather than what they usually do.

Hyping leads to apathy when something that really has the potential of causing havoc approaches. And once again this is more of a fear to me rather than the actual system itself. If a dangerous storm approached and most listened to the warnings, then the destruction and death would be kept to a minimum. On the other hand, if after a string of missed calls, people were apathetic or not watching and something did come along... even a lesser system (ie a cat 3 vs a 4) is capable of causing more widespread havoc then as far as people's lives are concerned.

Many people will ask, I'm going to visit Florida on such and such date... will a storm hit then? I tell them no, but always watch the weather, it could change. These events are rare usually. One strange year could have us seeing multiple bad storms, or we could go for a string of a decade or more without a massive one hitting. Our goal isn't to create hype, or tell you that this is THE YEAR. Our goal is to give you facts from various weather sources, and opinions from us and others, and let you decide.

We try to refrain from getting caught up "in the hype", but we won't downplay possibilities either. If you agree or disagree with what people are saying about a particular system, then this forum gives you a chance to state why. And in hopes, educate others and allow them the final decision. We always state to listed to the official sources first, but as a supplimental guide, you and I can help prepare everyone.

Thanks to all who have visited our site in the past 7 years. We are designing a new back end system to help manage the volume and the signal to noise ratio during the season. We have created off topic areas for those who talk and eventually go way off topic. Those who spam repeatedly the same message over and over will be removed, and everyone else can talk storms and learn, and have fun.


- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #37 - #57 (of 57 total)

Shawn (#37)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 04:32PM 07-May-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQXQ*)
I did look at that...I was looking just west of 80 and it looks like a big blow up of storms; however, they look more like they are pushing to the west than anything else. Interesting though..because the EPAC season starts the 15th.


TOO SOON (#38)
Posted by:
Posted On 05:16PM 07-May-2002 with id (VTNQRNQPVNSS*)
You guys are barking at the moon. Come on every cloud/vapor. Be patient. Time will tell and I think this is going to be a banner year. In fact I think Grey will up his forecast by two the end of May. I might be going out on the limb but that's OK. Every factor that I looked at is positive or neutral for a banner year. Even the supposive El Nino that won't happen. QBO,SLP,SST,& the Azores High will be in place. Don't worry about the low SST off Africa I'm almost sure that was in place at the same time the last couple of years. It will change I grant you that. The EPAC will start probably late and since there is no El Nino we might beat them again this year. Later.....

Lonny (#39)
Posted by: Shawn Location: Pearland,Tx
Posted On 05:22PM 07-May-2002 with id (RTNRTRNRSSNUS*)
I'm not saying there will be development;I'm just saying it would be nice to see some clouds or storms out there to at least have SOMETHING to look at.It has been at least 3 weeks since we have had any good rain here.Any kind of rain would be a welcome site right now.q

Agree Lonny ---Too Soon (#40)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: palm bay, FL
Posted On 06:24PM 07-May-2002 with id (QUUNQPTNRSYNQV*)
However, we could sure use some rain here in Florida. Actually, conditions prior to an active season are quite typical now. Cloud free GOM and Caribbean will mean good solar heating. Some tropical waves beginning to show up in the Atlantic. Water off African coast just a tad below normal....not unusual for early May. It has been cool there due to a fetch from the north the last coupla months, but this should change soon as jet moves north. Things are as they should be. Tropical activity is coming, and probably more than we'd like to see. Cheers!!

CHANGE (#41)
Posted by:
Posted On 06:51PM 07-May-2002 with id (VTNQRNQPRNQWW*)
It looks like you'll get your wish Steve H. Computer models are showing the High that has been over us for what seems like forever, moving North. This should allow for a more favorable climate for more afternoon type thunder storms, starting next week. Will have to wait and see if the models have some truth this year. At least till next week.

el nino etc (#42)
Posted by: HanKFranK Location: AiKeN, SC
Posted On 01:03AM 08-May-2002 with id (RPWNQTTNQWXNVQ*)
there are now more negative sst anomalies between south america and 150w now than warm ones, though the equatorial central and western pac are still running a little warm. just funny how the sst anomalies this year are shadowing what they did last year. the weather pattern up here isnt the same though, so the mystery as to how this year will play out deepens.
anyhow, the bastardi summer weather configuration-speculation would make for an interesting season. if for a change we get a great lakes/mississippi valley trough instead of an east coast one, anything in the atlantic or gulf becomes that much more dangerous.
also, the ideas about a slack season due to el nino are starting to evaporate. end of the month the good doctor will revise his season forecast, and my thinking now is that he puts it back where he had it in december.
later, all.

June 1st.... (#43)
Posted by:
Frank P Location: Biloxi, MS
Posted On 02:12PM 08-May-2002 with id (QRNQSNRTXNT*)
Basically doesn't mean all that much. Don't get your hopes up that very much will happen in the tropics prior to mid August. Climatologically speaking, June and July are relatively quiet tropical months and if we get one or two named storms we will be doing good (or bad, depends on your perspective). I'll be glad if we could just get an afternoon shower on the MS Gulf Coast, its approaching drought conditions over here.

Hey Frank P! (#44)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie
Posted On 02:23PM 08-May-2002 with id (RPXNRTXNRSQNUX*)
What's up bro? Same here in N.O. I think we actually have a 20% chance of rain tomorrow or Friday. Rain's supposed to be coming sometime mid-next week.

You're right about June 1st, but you gotta refresh my memory. Didn't someone of national note go on record predicting some early activity this year?


Frank P. and Steve! (#45)
Posted by: Shawn Location: Pearland,Tx
Posted On 02:41PM 08-May-2002 with id (RTNRTRNRSSNUS*)
I'm going to make a crazy prediction here but I think there will be some rain coming from the BOC area that may hit you all.I'm NOT saying any tropical development but at least some showers that will help cool things down.There is some moisture starting to move into the BOC now.I'm like ya'll are right now;I'll take any kinda rain!

Alicia? (#46)
Posted by: Rich Location: New Orleans
Posted On 03:12PM 08-May-2002 with id (QRNUNQNR*)
Could someone refresh my memory...wasn't it a hot and dry pattern along the Gulf Coast when Hurricane Alicia came ashore in SE Texas?

Rich... (#47)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie
Posted On 03:21PM 08-May-2002 with id (RPXNRTXNRSQNUX*)
>>Could someone refresh my memory...wasn't it a hot and dry pattern along the Gulf Coast when Hurricane Alicia came ashore in SE Texas?

That's one for the anals, oops, I mean annals :)


I don't seen anything on the IR or Vis to indicate any rain. It only barely showed up on the WV and doesn't seem to be much more than juicy air. Of course I didn't go to a Mexican radar site down there to see if there was any precip.


Steve (#48)
Posted by: Shawn Location: Pearland,Tx
Posted On 03:46PM 08-May-2002 with id (RTNRTRNRSSNUS*)
You are right,I don't think it is rain,YET!It is a hunch that it will become that though.My fiance says I'm usually 50/50 on my hunches.We shall see.

50/50? (#49)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie
Posted On 04:06PM 08-May-2002 with id (RPXNRTXNRSQNUX*)
>>You are right,I don't think it is rain,YET!It is a hunch that it will become that though.My fiance says I'm usually 50/50 on my hunches.We shall see.

Well that's pretty good I guess if she intends to keep you.


Posted by:
Posted On 05:25PM 08-May-2002 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQWV*)
I was just reading, May 7 update for the upcoming season. The main reason their predictions are lower is stronger than normal trade winds in the Carribean and neutral SST in the North Atlantic. If you try to read their update you must have "Acrobat Reader" and a slow wait. I don't know who runs the site or the validity of this prediction but I guess their guess is as good as mine and I say a dangerous year. So I guess will wait and see. Be prepared no matter what.

Lonny... (#51)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie
Posted On 08:29PM 08-May-2002 with id (VXNPNURNRQV*)
Who We Are
Tropical Storm (TSR) is a venture which has developed from the UK government-supported TSUNAMI initiative project on seasonal tropical cyclone prediction. The TSR consortium comprises experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting. The TSR industry expertise is drawn from the Benfield Group, the leading independent reinsurance intermediary, Royal & SunAlliance, the global insurance group, and from Crawford & Company, a global provider of risk management services. The TSR scientific grouping brings together climate physicists, meteorologists and statisticians at UCL (University College London) and the Met Office.

TSR (#52)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: palm bay fl
Posted On 11:43PM 08-May-2002 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNUY*)
They will be wrong. Trades will ease. This isn't like 2000 when the strong easterlies shredded storms. Saying the trades will be stronger than normal based on the current pattern has as much validity as saying that the troughs will take residence in the plains this year. Nearly impossible at this point to forecast. That's not a convincing yardstick, and I wouldn't bet the mortgage on it. But I will say that there are enough favorable signals to say (barring a strong emergence of El Nino) that it will be a higher than average year for cyclone development. Time will ultimately tell. Cheers!!

Steve/Shawn.... my southern neighbors (#53)
Posted by:
Frank P Location: Biloxi, MS
Posted On 09:43AM 09-May-2002 with id (QRNQSNRTXNT*)
Hey Steve, maybe that new mayor ya got will bring in some rain for the cresent city... I hear that the LA Gov'n is asking the good people to say a another rain prayer... He did that last year and Allison pounded on us.....

Shawn, keep looking in the GOM for me and get us some rain... but not as much as that bad girl Allison of last year...I got about 60 mph winds from her, bad thing though I was doing a home roofing project.... Tar paper not rated for TS winds.. hehe

Locals weather dudes here are going with a 40% chance of rain on Monday due to an approaching front... we'll see.

One thing for sure, we going to have an exciting season on the board this year... cause we all make it so exciting...

c yall and keep on posting!

Still no rain (#54)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg,FL
Posted On 05:25PM 09-May-2002 with id (VVNQYNWVNUW*)
The heat goes on here in FL. I haven't seen a drop of rain since April 18 and that was only 0.02 inches...the last major rain was April 3 at 1.15 inches. The typical afternoon seabreeze storms don't start for another 4 to 6 weeks. Hot temps with 90 to 95 each afternoon and lows near a muggy and humid 70 degrees. This do to a strong upper level high pressure over the gulf. This has capped the atmosphere, thus no rain.q

Thunder Storms? (#55)
Posted by: Dave Location: Cocoa Beach
Posted On 09:45AM 10-May-2002 with id (QRNTQNYQNRST*)
It looks like in South America is getting some action.
ooopppsss (#56)
Posted by: Dave Location: Cocoa Beach
Posted On 09:46AM 10-May-2002 with id (QRNTQNYQNRST*)

Where's the Rain??? (#57)
Posted by: Shawn Location: Pearland,Tx
Posted On 06:46PM 10-May-2002 with id (RTNRTRNRSSNUS*)
Please someone give us some rain!!!

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