CFHC Talkback For News Story #6:
Newest Talkback: 06:46 PM 05-10 EDT

Will this Be the Year?
10:23 PM EDT - 28 April 2002 | Fifty-seven Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments
| Newest: 06:46 PM 05-10 EDT

Actually, for a major system the answer is probably not. But this does not forgoe the need for education and preperations on a possible major system. Once again I must state my distaste for general overhyping of hurricanes by media or elsewhere. It must be tempered with facts to balance it out.

Most of the time, storms will approach and turn away, most of the time what we do get will be relatively minor, but every once in a while (thankfully it is fairly rare) a major one, such as Andrew, does come by, and in these instances all of the preperation pays off. Educating yourself on what these storms can't do, and don't usually do is just as much important on what they can. People tend to focus on the destruction that these are capable of rather than what they usually do.

Hyping leads to apathy when something that really has the potential of causing havoc approaches. And once again this is more of a fear to me rather than the actual system itself. If a dangerous storm approached and most listened to the warnings, then the destruction and death would be kept to a minimum. On the other hand, if after a string of missed calls, people were apathetic or not watching and something did come along... even a lesser system (ie a cat 3 vs a 4) is capable of causing more widespread havoc then as far as people's lives are concerned.

Many people will ask, I'm going to visit Florida on such and such date... will a storm hit then? I tell them no, but always watch the weather, it could change. These events are rare usually. One strange year could have us seeing multiple bad storms, or we could go for a string of a decade or more without a massive one hitting. Our goal isn't to create hype, or tell you that this is THE YEAR. Our goal is to give you facts from various weather sources, and opinions from us and others, and let you decide.

We try to refrain from getting caught up "in the hype", but we won't downplay possibilities either. If you agree or disagree with what people are saying about a particular system, then this forum gives you a chance to state why. And in hopes, educate others and allow them the final decision. We always state to listed to the official sources first, but as a supplimental guide, you and I can help prepare everyone.

Thanks to all who have visited our site in the past 7 years. We are designing a new back end system to help manage the volume and the signal to noise ratio during the season. We have created off topic areas for those who talk and eventually go way off topic. Those who spam repeatedly the same message over and over will be removed, and everyone else can talk storms and learn, and have fun.


- [mac]

Post a comment | Show All Comments | Show Next 21 Comments | Show Previous 33 Comments

Displaying Talkbacks #16 - #36 (of 57 total)

Allison (#16)
Posted by:
Rich Byett ( Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 06:09PM 01-May-2002 with id (RQSNQRRNVTNWY*)

Allison was the first storm of the season last year, but was not named until the 5th of June. However her origins can be traced back to a Tropical Wave that moved across the Atlantic and Central America in the last few days of may.

article (#17)
Posted by: HanKFranK Location: AiKeN, SC
Posted On 12:05AM 02-May-2002 with id (RPWNQTTNQWXNSY*)
check out the latest article about el nino by joe d'aleo at
if el nino is going to get going this year, it is running out of time. past failed el nino's have led to extremely hot summers in the u.s. what it means specifically for the hurricane season isn't mentioned, though there are some other articles about possibilities for tropical weather this year.
by the way--if you like bastardi, you'll probably like this guy.

Changes (#18)
Posted by: Shawn Location: Pearland,Tx
Posted On 11:45AM 02-May-2002 with id (RTNRTRNRSSNUS*)
I sure hope the air patterns change by June 1 because if they don't it could be quite boring to start the season.There is nothing out there right now!It's tough to even find any clouds anywhere!

El Nino Link (#19)
Posted by: Dave Location: Cocoa Beach
Posted On 01:54PM 02-May-2002 with id (QRNTQNYQNRST*)
Here is some great info on El Nino.

It has been a scorcher in Cocoa Beach the last two weeks

Excellent Dave, Thanks for the LINK! (#20)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: palm bay, FL
Posted On 05:54PM 02-May-2002 with id (QUUNQPTNRSYNQV*)
This will have to be watched during the next few months. With weak El Nino we could see an extremely active season. Also the numbers may go up just for the fact that we are in summer mode here in the SE US. Conditions are close for tropical development and due to the extended period of above normal temps, we will have more days of "potential" tropical development, in which we could see more cycles of pattern shifts (MJO/TUTT lows/Westerly QBO/etc). Like they say, ya hang around the barber shop long enuf, ya might just get a hair cut. Will be an interesting season.

thanks (#21)
Posted by: gofin
Posted On 08:18PM 02-May-2002 with id (RPWNVYNQQTNRQ*)
thanks for a great hurricane site!! Looking forward to the new season

hailstorm (#22)
Posted by: HanKFranK Location: AiKeN, SC
Posted On 01:51AM 04-May-2002 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNQUU*)
had a pretty good storm here around 7pm friday. a few gusts probably around 45mph, a few limbs down. fast moving storm put down some marble to golfball sized hail this side of town, other storms in the same complex caused wind damage and there were also a couple of unconfirmed funnel cloud reports. hailstones bounced off everything, but no damage to the cars. dog and cats scared senseless, chickens clouted but ok, and maybe a little damage to dad's beloved vegetable garden. my bro is disappointed, he wanted an excuse to file and insurance claim for his already cracked windshield.
anyhow, nice little rush to hold me over for the off season.

Posted by:
Posted On 03:30PM 04-May-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNUQ*)
I don't remember it being this HOT & DRY from April to May in South Florida. This is sure not a prerequsit for an El Nino year. I don't remember the last time it rained here and that's unusual. Just my gut feeling, but I think Hurricanes are going to be rolling this year and not late. Everybody be prepared and safe this year. See ya in June.

Changes (#24)
Posted by: Shawn Location: Pearland,Tx
Posted On 03:41PM 04-May-2002 with id (RTNRTRNRSSNUS*)
The air patterns are going to have to change in the next month for us to have a quick start to the season.There seems to be a blocking pattern right now that is not allowing for any storms to even start to fire up in the GOM or the Caribbean.When will it change?

Shawn... (#25)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie
Posted On 03:50AM 05-May-2002 with id (VWNRTYNUUNSV*)

This is only through 4/27, but you can see the anomoly of +2.5 for northern Gulf waters. I say the Gulf is being microwaved right now.


Steve (#26)
Posted by: Shawn Location: Pearland,Tx
Posted On 01:10PM 05-May-2002 with id (RTNRTRNRSSNUS*)
I have noticed how warm the GOM is right now but that seems to be the only thing in favor of development at this point.There looks to be alot of dry air in the GOM and Caribbean and it has been that way for a while now.I could be wrong,but it seems that until this pattern changes,it wouldn't matter if it was Sep. 1;we would have nothing.Do you see any changes coming soon.I have to admit,I would like to see a quick start to the season.

Looks Can Be Deceiving... (#27)
Posted by:
TropicalWxWatcher Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
Posted On 02:09PM 05-May-2002 with id (VVNQUWNWRNQXR*)
Over the past month, we have noticed a cool down of sea surface temperatures across most of the EPAC. This has caused a lot of people to change their minds about the strength of this years forecasted El Nino. I have been monitoring the progess of El Nino by looking at a lot of data over the past six months. In February, a kelvin wave moved from the west and central Pacific, all the way to the coast of South America. This wave transported warmer water to the EPAC from the warmer WPAC. We saw a pretty dramatic increase in ssts off the South American coast once the wave made its way that far east.

Take a look at the latest Sea surface temperature anomolies:

In this link, you will notice relatively cooler than average ssts in the EPAC. However, if you look farther west, you will see a large area of warm anomolies in the central and western Pacific Ocean. If a kelvin wave were to orginate from the central or western Pacific, and slowly move eastward, we could see another sudden increase in the sea surface temperarautes in the EPAC. It would be similar to what happened in February.
Even with the recent cool down in the EPAC, don't believe that we won't see an El Nino phase just yet! However, it is getting late for El Nino to affect the season even if it were to begin to develop rapidly. I also believe that we will see a moderate El Nino at best. Once again, this all depends on whether or not we see another kelvin waves make its way all the way across the Pacific. If we don't see another kelvin wave, we could EASILY see neutral conditions throughout the 2002 season.

Gulf Of Mexico Ssts (#28)
Posted by:
TropicalWxWatcher Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
Posted On 02:12PM 05-May-2002 with id (VVNQUWNWRNQXR*)
As you all probably know, the GOM ssts have been well above normal over the past two months. Currenty, we have a big anticyclone over the western Caribbean. This is causing warmer than average temperatures across Central America, the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, there isn't much precipiation near this high pressure system. So expect the ssts in this region to continue to rise until the pattern changes. The high will likely move north and gradually begin to weaken with time.

Gulf (#29)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie
Posted On 07:10PM 05-May-2002 with id (VWNRTYNUUNRQY*)
>>I have noticed how warm the GOM is right now but that seems to be the only thing in favor of development at this point.There looks to be alot of dry air in the GOM and Caribbean and it has been that way for a while now.I could be wrong,but it seems that until this pattern changes,it wouldn't matter if it was Sep. 1;we would have nothing.Do you see any changes coming soon.I have to admit,I would like to see a quick start to the season.

Nothing is imminent. The Man [tm] is expecting another 7-10 days of 90-92/70-72 for our area with no rain. That should bump the Gulf temperature up another degree or two. I was in Panama City last week, and it was already pretty warm there for late April.

I say be patient and wait to see where the retrogressing mid-continental trof ends up. Some have speculated that we'll have another east coast trof this season, but I don't see that in the patterns yet. It's more likely going to have it's longitudal (sp?) axis somewhere between East Texas and Alabama - with obvious jolts to the east and west. I think the makings for a very interesting hurricane season for the northern Gulf Coast are coming together. But I'm just going to be counting down the days in the meantime (25 1/2 to go).


Water temps (#30)
Posted by: robert
Posted On 10:19PM 05-May-2002 with id (VWNSTNRPXNRSU*)
the water may seem warm but let me tell you its only at the sevice. i went snorkiling at the beach today and was in 15-20 feet of water and i dove to the bottom and it was in the low to mid 60's down on the bottom up to about 5 feet off the bottom

Andrew a 5 (#31)
Posted by: robert
Posted On 11:11AM 06-May-2002 with id (VWNSTNQXTNQTP*)
this is a post off of another website that was poseted today.

Reading the paper today (Orlando Sentinal) it appears that the TPC is considering upgrading Andrew to a 5 based on data before the costly hurricane pounded the Homestead area. Not a bad move IMO....but they should also look at Floyd as he approached the Florida east coast while causing havoc in the Bahamas. Pressure was low enough to be classified as a 5 but the wind speed still was classified as a 4. If you are going to upgrade Andrew you also have to upgrade Floyd. If both systems are upgraded to 5 status, maybe it will drive the point home on how dangerous a hurricane can be and maybe stop this complancey that appears to be running ramped especially in Florida.....TSTRM(Paul)

Another Hot One! (#32)
Posted by: Shawn Location: Pearland,Tx
Posted On 05:14PM 06-May-2002 with id (RTNRTRNRSSNUS*)
It's another scorcher here with no relief in site.I can't recall the last time I saw storm activity in the GOM.It sure has been quite a while ago,though.Sure hope things change pretty soon because this is boring!q

WAVES (#33)
Posted by: ROB H.
Posted On 11:14AM 07-May-2002 with id (VTNQPUNQWWNQWP*)
Three weak tropical waves have formed in atlantic,
is this a sign of things to come?

Yeah, it is... (#34)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie
Posted On 11:36AM 07-May-2002 with id (RPXNRTXNRSQNUX*)
But these are weak indeed. Here's an interesting blub from Bastardi today and his spring/summer opposite teleconnections:

>>Anyway, just lobbing a bomb here from way out, the continued evolution of the current pattern would stick a trof southwest from the lakes into the central plains, with a ridge from FLorida northeast toward the area northwest of Bermuda in the means, and a ridge over central and western Mexico to southwest of California. This would be accomplished by the continued backing of the major features that we see. Interestingly enough, the NWS summer probability scheme, adjusted for the decadal long warming that has been taking place, looks like its in agreement. Which means that its time for a big group hug and a chorus of Cumbaya.
This tells me that he sees a strong Bermuda Ridge. Following up on that, depending on its ebbs and flows relative to where a storm is at any given time, the Gulf should be open for business throughout the 2002 Hurricane Season.



Just a small Update (#35)
Posted by:
Mike C. ( Location: Orlando, FL
Posted On 12:15PM 07-May-2002 with id (VVNRQNRSSNQPV*)
Due to work and other issues the planned upgrade of the news system will probably not occur until the start of the season. I did some work on it, but it still needs more tweaking.

The new news system is mainly to help folks navigate people's postings better and to have a more robust system for moderation and moving posts. (I don't like deleting posts and would rather move them if they are too off topic). And of course...


Arguing with anonymous strangers on the Internet is a sucker's game because they almost always turn out to be--or to be indistinguishable from
--self-righteous sixteen-year-olds possessing infinite amounts of free time.
- Neal Stephenson

Maybe Soon? (#36)
Posted by: Shawn Location: Pearland,Tx
Posted On 04:01PM 07-May-2002 with id (RTNRTRNRSSNUS*)
I was looking at the latest water vapor and noticed that there looks to be some moisture coming up from Mexico and trying to enter the BOC.If this does happen,maybe we can get some clouds to form and then some storms pop up.The SST's are certainly warm enough to support some build up.Does anyone else agree?q

Shawn (#37)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 04:32PM 07-May-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQXQ*)
I did look at that...I was looking just west of 80 and it looks like a big blow up of storms; however, they look more like they are pushing to the west than anything else. Interesting though..because the EPAC season starts the 15th.


Post a comment | Show All Comments | Show Next 21 Comments | Show Previous 33 Comments

Return to Central Florida Hurricane Center Main Page