CFHC Talkback For News Story #100:
Newest Talkback: 02:11 AM 09-12 EDT

Floyd is Days Away
07:05 PM EDT - 11 September 1999

Sometimes people forget that even when talking about storms that something is days away. Floyd itself is (on current thinking) not going to affect the US until Mid Week (Tue-Wed). This gives the forecast lots of time to change, and I think--right now--that it will not directly landfall in Florida.

I'm resting heavily on climatology here in my thinking, with only one model suggesting landfall in Florida (AVN/MRF) I can't really go with that solution now. However, as the new week begins we will have time to track and watch the storm. The NHC official forecast suggest it will come close to Florida--closer than Dennis. This does NOT mean Florida is all clear, quite the contrary. Since there are always exceptions to climatology (Andrew (1992)/ 1935 Labor Day Keys Storm). Everyone along the southeast US coast and Bahamas will need to keep tabs on the storm for a while, and watch the model trends.

The key here will be if these models trend to the west, Florida landfall is more likely, otherwise it could be elsewhere. But since its mid-week we have the weekend to enjoy and ponder where it may go. Floyd is bigger (in both windspeed and size) than Dennis and has more potential to cause havoc. If you disagree or have your own thoughts or questions feel free to comment.

Since some have been comparing Floyd to Andrew (as far as track--note that I don't agree), here is
an old satellite loop animation of Andrew.

TD#9 may become Gert later tonight or tomorrow, and the system in the Central Atlantic may form into something, but it will take time if it does at all.

The server debugging session never happened today, but we did alter the code of the site a bit to lessen the chance of an overload-related blackout.

For more information on Hurricane Floyd see the Current Storm Spotlight for Hurricane Floyd.
For more information on TD#9 see the Current Storm Spotlight for TD#9.
NRL Monterey Tracking Site (Navy) -- Very nice forecast track graphics for Floyd.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFDL Model & Plot for Floyd and for TD#9
Multiple Model Forecast Composite from Michael Bryson

Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #25 (of 25 total)

Pressure rising (#1)
Posted by: rob Location: stuart
Posted On 07:38PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (QYYNRRWNQWSNRPV*)

Floyds pressure has slowly been rising during the day from 962 to 966 and just now 967 in the lates recon report if this continues i wouldent be suprised if floyed winds drop to 105 at the 11:00 advisory,but floyd would probaly recover later tonight or early tomorrow morning.

GFDL (#2)
Posted by:
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 07:44PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTPNQWT*)

Good evening everyone. Well, I just thought that I would post a brief comment regarding the GFDL's westward shift in the forecast track. The GFDL's latest run brings Floyd to a point about 100 to 150 miles east of West Palm Beach in 72 hours while moving northwest. This position and track is considerably farther west than the previous forecast track.

I'll post later this evening with some thoughts.

God Bless You,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.

Forward speed (#3)
Posted by: Steve Hirschberger Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 07:56PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNQXR*)

Seems like the race is on. Will Floyd beat the trough to the coast or not? Will the Ridge outmuscle the trough, or will Floyd stall or slow forward movement as the trough approaches like Dennis did? I figure that if Floyd is going to make landfall his forward progress must not be impeded. Any significant slowing of Floyd will allow the trough to move in and curve him out to sea. The trough in the west is beginning to look impressive, but probably 3-4 days away. The last few loops of Floyd show a slight wobble to the SW. Maybe the high to the SW is slowing him down. Anyhow the timing, as stated before by many, is critical to those along the Florida coast. I kind of agree with the UKMET in that once the trough approaches the storm will be taken out to the east, but will it be in Okeechobee or Orlando when it does? I suspect the UKMET will have a compromise solution on the next run, a bit further to the west but curving it NNE in short order. In short, and unfortunately if the trough doesn't do its thing, I'm thinking that floyd will make landfall in florida or NOWHERE at all, since it may be pushed rapidly to the N then NE. Any other thoughts out there? Does anyone have forecasts on when the trough is going to approach the FL panhandle?

GFDL Update (#4)
Posted by: STeve Hirschberger Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 08:06PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNRPR*)

Ron thanks for the update on the latest GFDL run. I expected it to be adjusted to the right. Yes its early, but I'm starting to get a queasy feeling about this. 100-150 miles of W. palm moving NW sounds like ERIN, which just about came over my house in S. Brevard Co. 1995. She wasn't a Cat 3 or 4 though. Tuesday at that position implies a steady forward speed also. I'll have to figure out the milage on that.

Crossing into Gulf (#5)
Posted by:
John McLain Location: Seminole, FL
Posted On 09:13PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (QWQNRQUNQWUNRRR*)

Are ANY models showing a So. Fla transit ala Andrew and the curving North with the trough? A full throttle turn NE into Tampa Bay is not a pleasant thought. I suppose the turn is inevitable - as Steve wrote 'the storm will be taken out to the east, but will it be in Okeechobee or Orlando when it does?' I'd add or will it be Venice?

NE turn? Tampa? (#6)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 09:24PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVSNX*)

I was sure I was hearing the expected ne turn to be prior to land fall. Is there any evidence of the storm slipping into the gulf? The weather channel is showing the trough coming into the east by Wednesday, guiding the hurricane away from Florida. However, they are asking people to not make plans to come to the east coast next week
that is not very reassurimg. Oh well, I guess it will keep viewers riveted throgh the Bucs opening season game.

erinesgue?!! (#7)
Posted by:
troy ( Location: Titusville
Posted On 09:27PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQURNVRNYR*)

Steve i feel your waxing uneasyness in regards to this storms forecats ( in somemodels)looking abit like Erin. Unfortunatley Floyd is allready better organized than Erin was at this time frame.
It willl be an interesting few days...

When will it turn (#8)
Posted by: Steve Hirschberger Location: Palm Bay Fl
Posted On 09:31PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNRQ*)

Latest look at the satellite images are terrific, and ominous, with the center really wrapping up and a wide swath of pinwheeling convection. Floyd seems to be on the move, and looks to me like due west if not 265 for a bit! If he accelerates some he'll definitely beat the trough to the peninsula. How far west will he go? If this trend continues till tomorrow night I'm getting the plywood out. Not up, but out.

BAMM and BAMD (#9)
Posted by:
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 10:10PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTSNQW*)

The latest BAMM and BAMD have been shifted slightly farther south than the previous run. The BAMM has Floyd less than 100 miles east of West Palm Beach moving toward the west-northwest in 72 hours. The BAMD is very similar to the BAMM expect it is a hair to the northeast at 72 hours, yet still moving west-northwest close to the east-central Florida coast. By no means does this mean that Floyd will landfall in Florida; however, it shows that it is a very real possibility. I'll post shortly with my thoughts on movement.

God Bless You,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.

Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 11:04PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNRS*)

Good evening to you all, i have been reading most of your post's today and i think everybody has a good point in what they are saying, I would like to add my point tonight, With a system like FLOYD we have to take other things in to consideration, First let me start with the models, they are only as good as the people who feed them, most of them threaten south central Florida, i have noticed that when they threaten Florida people dont talk about the real possiblity of that relm, but when they change and head north everybody yells NC, i need to say that florida is looking down a gun barrel tonight, never underestimate when we have a tropical system and a ridge building to it's north, So what am i saying ,let's go back in time to Andrew, once thought to be a system heading north, but a ridge slipped in and changed that ballgame fast, im saying that this trough will not dig that deep and when it reaches the coast it will find a stronger FLOYD keep you eye on this system, As for the web im happy you like it and im sorry it still has some bug's but i will be trying to work them out all night tonight, the storm chat is open and will have someone in it later tonight, Mike Anderson Florida Wx.

Floyd (#11)
Posted by: Robin
Posted On 11:05PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (RPYNRQRNQSRNTR*)

I am a bit surprised at the general tone of this site's latest posting ("days away, etc.). Without being an alarmist, one must acknowledge that the Peninsula is apparently under the most serious major hurricane threat since Andrew. Rather than reassure the public it is time to spur them on to immediate precautionary action.

Who Else? (#12)
Posted by: Steve Hirschberger Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 11:15PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNUR*)

11 pm TPC Update has their track showing the Center of Floyd at 27 N 78.5 W, and in their words "dangerously close to central Fl." This is ahead of most of the other predictions you hear in the media which are saying Weds and Thurs. The intensity forecast shows 920 mb in 72 hours! This could be a Cat 4 storm. Currently, hurricane force winds extend out to 105 from the center and TS force winds 175. This could spread out over the next few days. So even a brush with the coast can bring hurricane force winds inland quite a bit. But I suspect this will be closer than a brush, since the trough probably won't show up til weds. Stay tuned.

getting worried (#13)
Posted by: clyde w Location: orlando
Posted On 11:20PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (RPVNQPTNRPTNYW*)

This storm is looking more and more like erin in '95. also, hurricanes have a tendency to slow down or stall before taking that northen turn with an approaching trough. a worst case scenario is for that to happen on the florida coastline. i unederstand the hosts intention in this post, but i think it is time to sit up and take stock of what you will do if this storm plays out as the models indicate. the latest GFDL shows a 920mb storm in 72 hours, that is a lower pressure than andrew had. of course this is all just conjecture but i think anyone with aninterest in florida should start paying attention!

How much time? (#14)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 11:47PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVSNYV*)

Some one was going to calculate the number of hours etc away from the US coast, the storm was at the time of the post. So much of what has to be done in preparation has to be done based on evacuation zones, routes etc. I know for a fact that people in the Pensacola area were stuck in traffic on the road trying to get out still when the worst of Opal hit because there truly was not enough of a lead time to evacuate. When a dump truck can over turn on the Interstate and back traffic up for miles and hours just think what an impending deadly storm can do to people's thought processes and the potential for traffic accidents.
Then the people who dont believe til the last minute that anything bad will happen because Erin was the last storm they experienced. Can one of you experts please come on line as soon as you can responsibly do so, and let people know if and when to leave. It is a risk and a good Samaritan act, you know like CPR. It might do more to save lives than waiting for the media to decide the politically correct time to tell everyone. Thanks

floyd (#15)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 12:07AM 12-Sep-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXYNUR*)

Hello all,,,,, Floyd is still on my projected
path as I stated 4 days ago when it was only a week tropical storm.

First lets look at the storms intensity,,,,,it just got done passing through a trough and the
upper winds are now blowing to the west giving
Floyd a better indication of strengthening on
Sunday tru sunday night where I've been saying
for awhile now that he should be up to around
140mph by Monday morning.

Next lets look at the models..... The mrf has
floyd slightly farther north,,,where it was in the keys on tuesday night,,,now near west palm,heading northwest across the center of
florida,,,avn is still the same by Tuesday night,near west palm and hugging the coast moving nw,,,,Gfdl is a bit more south and west again
simular in all to the avn,,,,and alone is the
nogaps on tuesday evening just eastof grand bahama
island heading north to the carolinas......

Well lets also look at the ridge,,,,how strong will it be

Ready or Not (#16)
Posted by: Brain Location: Hollywood Beach, FL
Posted On 12:16AM 12-Sep-1999 with id (QSWNURNQYXNQTW*)

Question: If you remember, Andrew was supposed to go into Hollywood originally, but because it was such a strong cat 4 it began to wobble. One of those wobbles sent it about 60 miles south into Homestead. It seems that even if it is off the W.P.B coast in 72 hrs., it could wobble, sending either North or South by 100 miles in just minutes. Should this be a concern?

webpage (#17)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 12:27AM 12-Sep-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXYNUR*)

Mike Anderson,, we can't get into your chat room.

Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 12:52AM 12-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNRX*)

Im sorry you could not get in the room but try now if you want , it should be working ok now im heading in the room and will be on , i would love to chat with anybody tonight, Now FLOYD , some interesting things are starting to uncover themselfs, the one big thing is this trough, latest im thinking is that it will be weaker than forecasted and not even dig as deep as forecasted, what this means is to get ready for a possible major hurricane impacting the florida coast, most models have swung back to the west in responce to this weaker trough and stronger ridge, in time you will see the NOGAPS change more to a west track and even a possible stall along the florida coast , Mike Anderson florida WX.

floyd,,chat (#19)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 01:08AM 12-Sep-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXYNUR*)

sorry mike,,,,I click on live storm chat....and
a invalid adress keeps poping up.....I guess
try to redue it and if others are getting in,,then
I don't know whi I can't...sorry scottsvb

Floyd (#20)
Posted by: Mark Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 06:54AM 12-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQTYNRTS*)

Floyd continues to move westward over night as pressure falls to 957 mb. Floyd is becomming better organized with winds expanding in the southwest quadrant again. The shear is almost gone and a increase to a CAT#3 storm I believe is within a few hours. Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches have been posted for parts of the Bahama's as of 5am and I believe you may see some type of watches posted for the coast of Florida late Sunday or early Monday. Most models are in aggreement through 48 hours bringing Floyd between Freeport and Nassau then the models wavier with some turning nw-n and some holding a westward motion making landfall just north of West Palm Beach. I am leaning towards the landfall in Florida but I am unsure on exactly where.. I am still not convinced that a turn to the w-nw will develope as early as Monday mourning. I do see the turn taking place but I believe more like late Monday or early Tuesday. The reason is the projected path is not a due west path on Sunday but more of a w-nw path. If Floyd stays on a more due west path today(south of 23 degrees north) Floyd will be further south of the projected path and a bit further away from the approaching trough which will leave Floyd on a west track a bit longer. This is what I feel will happen in the short term. As I said 48 hours ago a West Palm Beach landfall is my best GUESS at this time.. Landfall should take place around Tuesday late mourning. I know this is a very specific forcast for long range but so far its followed my path I projected 72 hours ago and I see no reason to change it at this time. Please don't forget this is not an official forcast just my best guess so people in the Bahamas and along the Florida coast need to get official updates thru the National Hurricane Center. My next update will be at 9am.

Live Storm Chat (#21)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 07:05AM 12-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNRX*)

I am also not able to access the live storm chat.
Does it take a special computer configuration?

Mark, Predicted Intensity of Storm? (#22)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 07:09AM 12-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNRX*)

Do you have a predicted wind intensity for this storm at the 72 hour time. Will it have time to intensify more or will we still be looking at a strong Cat 2- weak 3?

Floyd (#23)
Posted by: Ken Location: Jacksonville, Florida
Posted On 08:17AM 12-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNRPW*)

Can anyone render an assessment on the potential impact to North Florida?

Floyd (#24)
Posted by:
Mark Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 08:34AM 12-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQUQNVR*)

Floyd continues moving westward this mourning but as of the 8am advisory we now have a CAT#3 storm with winds of 115 mph. Latest recon flight at 7:11am this mourning reported a wind of 120knots but the NHC is holding Floyd at 115mph. The other interesting feature is the location of Floyd on the recon flight position((23.6n--62.2w))but the NHC reports position ((23.9n--62.2w)) Latest satelite images show a more due west motion and I am sceptic on the NHC position at 8am. Floyd will continue moving west today and tonight approaching the Bahamas late tommorow and early Tuesday. Winds forecasted at that time to be around 130mph. As it looks now if Floyd approaches Florida we MAY see winds in CAT#4 satus but this is only forcast at this time. Pressures continue to fall to 953mb so strengthening is likely to continue. I have added my e-mail address in this update.

floyd (#25)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 09:11AM 12-Sep-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXUNQSU*)

This is a brief discussion on floyd......First off
I'm glad to hear Mark from ft. Myers and Mike from
the east coast of Fl are pretty close to the right
track of floyd. I've been on track as you all know
that I usually am over the last 3 years,since floyd was a depression, I've had the wind and direction from the beginning.

Well lets briefly look at it and I will be back
later about 2pm.

Over night, the week trough has moved out,,,the
weak one over the ne Gulf of mexico is staying put,,,(the reason I mention it cause if it happen
to hop over fl,,it may get to floyd before the main trough). The Ridge has now been built,,Floyd
as of now is 115pmh,,,but I feel he is already 125
mph and will be at 140-150mph still as said
earlier by Mon morning,,,intensity should hold through landfall.

Hurricane watches in the southern Bahamas should
be upgraded to warnings as of 5pm,,,and watches
should go up from the keys(due to the fact of poor
evacuation route) up to the Cape C. by 11pm.

Now his track will be brief in this statement,,
but he's is generally heading west,,with a couple
wobbles to the wsw,,,,,this is normal to head
south of due west when a strengthening storm of
his winds already get under a ridge,,(note andrew went wsw for 12hrs,,,,and Mitch last year) though
mitch got so strong he created his own enviroment
around him,,,which Floyd is trying to due.....that
is why I see himstaying around 23' north-23.5 for
the next 24-36hrs or until Monday eve..then a west-northwest should start for 12-24hrs....the
question is before the turn again is how far west
will Floyd be since he might be around 73-75w
already....... scottsvb

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