Major Hurricane Floyd Heading West. Warnings and Watches up for Bahamas.
08:54 AM EDT - 12 September 1999
Florida should be paying attention to this storm and beginning to think what would it do if it were to hit.
However--cautiously optimistic--, I still don't see *direct landfall* in Florida happening. It may come close enough and has a decent enough chance to move more west to feel hurricane force winds (unlike Dennis) which does warrant full preperations. Assume it will, I'd imagine.
Why? Well the long range models (With the notable exception of the MRF--Which is indeed a reason to worry) and climatology support no landfall, and I'm always cautiously optimistic. Make no mistake I would very much like to see no hurricanes hit Florida. Also make no mistake that I'm not a meterologist. But there is no need for voodoo meterology when it comes to a storm like this. Bottom line, be prepared to prepare, do the small things now (gas, etc.) and pray for the best. If watches/warnings due occur for Florida, then follow instructions given by officials.
I must emphasize, this one is going to be even closer than Dennis. And that means landfall--Anywhere in East Florida--is still a possibilty. But hype can be dangerous too, and that's why I'm cautiously optimistic. If you want hype you won't find it here. You will find common sense. Florida is looking down the barrel of a gun at Floyd. It is a major hurricane, and you should treat it with the proper preperations as I do. If my thinking changes I will post so on this site as soon as I can.
By the Way, did I mention the fact that Floyd is now a major hurricane and everyone in the east coast should watch it and make preperations and watch official sources for info as it gets closer. If I was too redundant in the above post then I did my job.
As always, feel free to comment, agree, disagree, ask questions, or post your own interpretation.
For more information on Hurricane Floyd see the Current Storm Spotlight for Hurricane Floyd.
For more information on TD#9 see the Current Storm Spotlight for TD#9.
NRL Monterey Tracking Site (Navy) -- Very nice forecast track graphics for Floyd.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFDL Model & Plot for Floyd and for TD#9
Multiple Model Forecast Composite from Michael Bryson
Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop
More Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.