CFHC Talkback For News Story #108:
Newest Talkback: 12:20 AM 09-19 EDT

Back for Now
12:11 PM EDT - 18 September 1999

We're using a different host service to run the automated code, but this is only temporary.

We apologize for being down, but it was beyond our control.

Floyd stayed 110 miles east of our coast, and did not cause too much damage. The unprecidented evacuation (of which I was part of) was both an amazing and stressful scene. I'm sure the goverments will be learning important lessons from that. Damage was sporadic along East Central Florida, but beach erosion did happen. And of course, the unbelievable flooding in North Carolina on north will make Floyd a memorable storm for many.

Hurricane Gert is of no threat to the US, but Bermuda may have a run in with it.

There is a system in the Northwest Caribbean that's starting to cause rain here in Central Florida that some models form into a tropical depression. It will give us plenty of rain. We'll be watching that too.

For more information on Gert see the
Current Storm Spotlight for Gert.
NRL Monterey Tracking Site (Navy) -- Very nice forecast track graphics.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFDL Model & Plot for Gert
Gert Multiple Model Forecast Composite from Michael Bryson

Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: Storm Centered imagery.

[N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [jc]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #11 (of 11 total)

unnamed........harvey (#1)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 02:10PM 18-Sep-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXUNVR*)

First,,we're glad your back and we need you to stay on in here,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

A new depression is forming over the southern
gulf of mexico. This could develop into Harvey,but how strong it gets will be due to how
quick it moves.......models generally indicate
a north and northeastward movement and should
cross into Florida north of Tampa on Monday, but this is not proven yet due to the fact this system
hasn't developed yet as of noon on Sat. The system is having a hard time developing due to dry air to its west,,,,,this should moisten up
over the next day as it moves to the north in
response to a trough coming down as of Monday,,,,,note tropical storm watches could go into affect as early as 11pm tonight,,but most
likly sunday in response to development..scottsvb

welcome back (#2)
Posted by:
william moore Location: South Daytona
Posted On 05:50PM 18-Sep-1999 with id (RPWNYSNTUNYX*)

Glad your back guys!
you provided an invaluable service during ths ordeal..

Back Again (#3)
Posted by: Steve Hirschberger Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 06:20PM 18-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNVR*)

Glad to see this site up and other source for the latest storm data exists. Looks like there might be a depression wanting to form in the gulf soon. If, when, where, and where it might go will be the big question, and how much will it develop before encountering land? Usually these systems pull off toward the NE, particularly when a cold front approaches, which is anticipated by Weds. How far north it will creep before crossing the state is TBD. Although with slow development and movement the big bend area would seem likely. But that may also depend on where the mid/upper level circulation decides to join the surface low pressure area (28N and 95W, 24N and 95 W respectively) . We'll keep watching. Anyone have thoughts on the Gulf system?

Previous Post (#4)
Posted by: Steve Hirschberger Location: Palm Bay
Posted On 06:46PM 18-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNVR*)

Correction on the longitude of my previous post, should have been 88W, not 95W in both cases

NHC Says..... (#5)
Posted by: SirCane
Posted On 06:52PM 18-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQVR*)

That the Center is 115 miles noth of the yucatan. IF it moves NW for a day then turns NE I would pyt anywhere from Mobile, AL to the big bend in the gun. It all depends on where the center forms.

Pardon my warped sense of humor, but ... (#6)
Posted by: Uncle Wiggly
Posted On 07:15PM 18-Sep-1999 with id (RPYNRQRNQSRNRSW*)

Sorry folks, I know few of you will sympathize with my commment, but I can't resist.
I find it all too droll that a hurricane tracking site busily and somewhat self-importantly informing the slathering public of each and every twist and turn of even the remotest of storms, spinning vast webs of speculation as to just what each and every little tropical depression might or might not do and then working itself up into a positive lather when we do, in fact, have a real storm to deal with, suddenly collapses in a heap of coquina shells: that is becomes involved in some fracus with the server at the worst possible moment, finds itself shut down, and the managers hurl themselves into the senseless mass exodus, fleeing the premisis with wild abandon.

Ok, I'm indulging myself in a little fun at the expense of these good people, but, I just can't (chuckle, chuckle) help myself!

So Glad you ARe Back-Disturbance (#7)
Posted by: Mary Location: LAkeland
Posted On 07:16PM 18-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNRRW*)

I was reading on the TPC Page that the recon that was scheduled to go out at 1800 has been cancelled. That usually means that they either have no reason to go out or that some thing is wrong with the air plane or that more pressing matters have occurred. So far there has been no measureable rain fall in the Lakeland area although there were a few sprinkles this morning between Lakeland and Lake Wales. Nothing strong enough to run the wipers continuously. The models are still saying nothing definitive and the Miami forecasters as of 1:00pm were talking about the divergence of the models. This is one of those that will probably make it inland before anyone gets too excited. I think ole Gert is taking up all the atmosphere now even though he/she is about 1000 miles from the Tampa Bay area. Those big ones suck up the atmosphere. I could be wrong though. Glad Floyd did not hurt anymore people than he did. Wish he could have gone to sea a lot sooner.

WELCOME BACK!!!!!!! (#8)
Posted by: Jeanine Location: Hollywood, FL
Posted On 08:15PM 18-Sep-1999 with id (VSNQTNSUNRTU*)

Just glad to see that this site is back up and running. Keep up the good work.

Wiggly (#9)
Posted by: Steve Hirschberger Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 09:05PM 18-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQUS*)

In response to "uncle Wiggly," whatever that supposed to mean, this site has provided participants the ability to has some fun with speculating on the development and movement of weather systems during the tropical season. We are not speaking for the TPC or any official weather service, but are curious and fascinated with these weather phenomena. The comments that are added to the stories are both thought provoking and insightful, and sometimes outrageous too. No one should ever view these comments as an official forecast or take action because of them. That function is the responsibility of the TPC and local Emergency Management officials. We are having some harmless fun exchanging views on tropical systems....that is all. In a WWW full of pornography, sadism, and other destructive information, how can anyone complain/critcize one that stimulates curiousity and thought? Like they say, if you don't like what you're watching, change the channel! That's my take on it anyhow. By the way, the system in the gulf may become a depression within the next 12-24 hours.

Rainy (#10)
Posted by: mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 09:53PM 18-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNRQU*)

Since the last post we have had a nice little rain shower here in Lakeland. Weather looks a little ominous. But, does anyone know if the storm has time to be anything more than a rain maker? IT looks to me like it doesnt have enough real estate to do too much.

Piggly Wiggly (#11)
Posted by: Hog Trap
Posted On 03:20AM 19-Sep-1999 with id (RPXNQTNTQNYP*)

Thats the way to tell em Steve!

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