CFHC Talkback For News Story #109:
Newest Talkback: 06:42 AM 09-20 EDT

Tropical Depression Ten Forms in the Gulf of Mexico
10:00 AM EDT - 19 September 1999

TD#10. It should be slow to develop any further. However, the impact does rely on the intensity of the system at landfall. If it remains fairly weak, as I expect it (but you never know sometimes with Gulf Storms) Models suggest it to move slowly towards the northeast gulf, and primarily be a rain producer. Some slower than others. Yet the NOGAPS actually drifts it southwestward for a bit.

We'll be watching it. Tropical Storm Watches may be thrown up later today for some parts of the coast.

For more information on TD#10 see the Current Storm Spotlight for TD#10.
For more information on Gert see the Current Storm Spotlight for Gert.
NRL Monterey Tracking Site (Navy) -- Very nice forecast track graphics.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFDL Model & Plot for Gert and for TD#10
Gert Multiple Model Forecast Composite from Michael Bryson
TD#10 Multiple Model Forecast Composite from Michael Bryson

Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: Storm Centered imagery.

[N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #14 (of 14 total)
WELCOME BACK CFHC //// TD #10 (#1)
Posted by: Mike Anderson (http://hrrp://www.fortunecity.com/greenfield/tigris/622/weather/ectwp.htm) Location: Miami FL
Posted On 11:25AM 19-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNTW*)

First of all let me say welcome back Mike C. and im happy to hear that you all did well during Hurricane FLOYD. Well now we have a new TD in the gulf, here is my take on the system as of now. Im thinking that this system should develop more into an extratropical or even a hybird system, non the less this should still allow for a tropical storm watch later. As for movement ill hold off on that one till later today as some of the guidance is taking the sysyem NW,than SE and even ENE after that,i will have more information on this system at the EAST COAST TROPICAL WEATHER CENTER HOMEPAGE ( my site) and you can get this by typing http://www.fortunecity.com/greenfield/tigris/622/weather/ectwp.htm your comments are also welcome on my page.
CORRECTION TO THE WEB LINK (#2)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 11:30AM 19-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNTW*)

Sorry i think i need more coffee, you can use the link to get to the page again sorry.
LETS TRY AGAIN (#3)
Posted by: Mike Anderson (http://www.fortunecity.com/greenfield/tigris/622/weather/ectwp.htm)
Posted On 11:34AM 19-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNTW*)

Gee if i could just type it in the right place you all might get the link, im real sorry i need sleep im like the walking dead the last few days, i cant wait till winter, have a good day and thanks for putting up with this Mike Anderson Florida WX.
Harvey (#4)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 03:52PM 19-Sep-1999 with id (VSNQSNSWNRPU*)

As I continue to forcast these storms,,,I see alot
of email of people thanking me for my correct forcasts......thank you all......

Harvey as I predicted 5 days ago...should be
named by this evening,,,,,winds of 40-45mph.
He has dry air on his western edge,,,and shear to his north,,,,,,,the center was drifting north-northeast at this time,,,,,,,,,the center of harvey should move more over the moisture to its east,,,,,and progress east-northeast ahead of a strong trough to his north coming down....he should intensify to a strong tropical strom before landfall on late monday night or early tuesday.......a possible hurricane watch might be posted from Cedar Key and the big bend area,,south to the Tampa Bay area on Monday evening,,,,other wise tropical storm watches this evening should be upgraded to warnings on Monday. Intensity at landfall at this time should be between 65-70mph,,,,,,but,,the models are divergent now,,so the track is not certain,,,,,and the strength,,,,,,I should have a better fix on the exact location and strength by later tonight or early monday morning,,,,.scottsvb
Harvey? (#5)
Posted by: Steve Hirschberger Location: Palm Bay Fl
Posted On 04:08PM 19-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNTT*)

Scott, good call on this one! I wasn't so sure last night that it was going to make depression status until later today but it did. I'll bet that the center of this with get relocated several times before anyone can get a handle on where its going, but it seems to be getting better organized. Nogaps has it missing the trough, but I don't see that happening since its too far north and east already to get spun to the west. GFDL has it going SE. Others have it heading NE or ENE across North Central Florida. Any chatter out there concerning this? hard to tell particulars until they get a good fix on this.
TD # 10 (#6)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 04:44PM 19-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNST*)

Right now it is hard to say just what the system will do, but for now i favor the BAMM BAMD as they are best in forecasting tropical storms and depressions, till and if it reaches hurricane status you cant use much other guidance.
TS Watch (#7)
Posted by: SirCane
Posted On 02:56PM 19-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNRPV*)

We might go under a watch here in Pensacola, weather it comes here I dont know.
Weather here does not reflect tropical disturbance (#8)
Posted by: mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 05:37PM 19-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNSW*)

So far the weather here does not reflect a tropical disturbance beyond the summer warm front stalled out over Central Florida. I think the Lakeland monster defeated Floyd and TD#10 will be a passing thought. Of course I reserve the right to be wrong.
Harvey (#9)
Posted by: troy
Posted On 06:38PM 19-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQURNVRNYU*)

Rains in the Central and Northern Brevard County area have been almost steady and at times heavy. Many flood prone areas around my neighborhood have a few inches of standing water. Indian River drive in Cocoa has parts that ae under water and getting worse. Because these areas had standing water from Floyd still on the ground itis taking little time to flood. So be careful when driving. Saw plenty of roads with standing water today




Harvey (#10)
Posted by: Robin Location: Melrose, FL
Posted On 08:25PM 19-Sep-1999 with id (RPYNRQRNQSRNYS*)

Prediction: Harvey will turn out to cause far more damage in Florida than Floyd. He will come into Wacassasa Bay midday Tuesday as a strong tropical storm and not weaken significantly as he moves NE toward Gainesville and St. Augustine. Gainesville will see sustained 45 mph winds with gusts to 65. There will be widespread power outages all across North Central and Northeast Florida and many downed trees blocking some roadways. Rains will be in the 3-6 inch range and flooding will occur in the usual places, though due to the relatively low water levels in the wetlands, the rainwater will be taken up quickly.
TD 10 (#11)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 10:26PM 19-Sep-1999 with id (RPYNXVNQQNQR*)

Since Tropical Depression Ten has slowed down its forward speed, the chances of the storm landfalling farther south have increased. The latest GFDL model run has the storm making landfall in Pinellas county in about 40 hours. The other NHC models--particularly the A90E and BAMM--have shifted farther south in the latest runs. My prediction: Tropical Storm Harvey will make landfall between Pinellas and Hernando county in 36 to 48 hours with sustained winds of 55 to 60 MPH. Recent satellite imagery indicates a large augmentation of convection near the center of circulation which may indicate that the depression is nearing tropical storm status. Abundant dry air to the west of the system will prevent hurricane formation and will likely intensify the system more like an extratropical cyclone. This system looks very similar to Tropical Storm Josephine of 1996.

God Bless You,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ???????????????? (#12)
Posted by: Mike Anderson (http://hrrp://www.fortunecity.com/greenfield/tigris/622/weather/ectwp.htm)
Posted On 10:50PM 19-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNTQ*)

well lets get right to what is going on in the gulf tonight, it looks like TD#10 will be or is HARVEY as im writing this post, i want to say the post of Ronn Raszetnik JR. is right on the money tonight good job Ronn , and before i forget thank you for your comments in my web page as my readers also like reading good straight forecasts, keep posting, now on to HARVEY it looks like the center is getting under the convection tonight and i think it is due to the center reforming to the south. My thinking is that with the slow motiom or drift this system has the potential to even reach cat 1 status but we wont go there yet, it looks to me like the center will head off to the ENE and should come in between Crescent beach, and Grove city as it moves across the sunshine state. As for what im thinking it could be packing sustained winds of close to hurricane force with higher gusts, we should see a tropical storm or even hurricane warning posted sometime tomorrow. most guidance is farther south with the system now and it should start to develop as a FL wind recorded at 50kt was found tonight along with a 1003mb pressure. Mike Anderson florida WX.
Wow Does Harvey have tiime to do all of that? (#13)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 04:37AM 20-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNQPV*)

At 11 pm he was located about 300 miles south of St Pete. Won't he run out of real estate before becoming that strong? I mean, we dont even have any wind this morning at 5 am. However there is a great amount of water dripping from the roof, like we might have had rain all night.
Harvey (#14)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 06:42AM 20-Sep-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTSNR*)

Well, Tropical Storm Harvey will time to intensify over the warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next 24 hours. I don't expect Harvey to become a hurricane, but he may intensify to moderate tropical storm status of 55 to 60 MPH before coming ashore. The official forecast brings Harvey ashore very near my location. I have not experienced much wind at all yet; however, the tropical storm force winds are well offshore. I think we could have a big problem with tornadoes on the right side of the storm. Rotation has already been detected in the outer bands of Harvey and the scenario looks very similar to Tropical Storm Josephine of 1996 which produced many tornadoes over west-central Florida. Harvey will landfall farther south than Josephine, though.

God Bless You,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
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