CFHC Talkback For News Story #11:
Newest Talkback: 08:50 AM 04-11 EDT

Gray's April Predictions
06:55 PM EDT - 06 April 2001

Dr. William Gray and the group at Colorado State University have put out the new predictions for this upcoming hurricane season, updated only slightly from the December forecast. It has one more named storm and one more hurricane than previously. The intense hurricane count remains the same. All in all, still very close to an average season. The predictions include a hint of at least one hurricane striking the US coast this season. Which includes Florida too.

Tropical Cyclone Forecast
Colorado State University / Dr. William Gray		 Mean Average
Year

06-April-2001
Forecast
Named Tropical Storms and Hurricanes 9.3 10
Named Storm Days 46.9 50
Hurricanes 5.8 6
Hurricane Days 23.7 25
Intense Hurricanes (Cat 3+) 2.2 2
Intense Hurricane Days 4.7 4


One of the more interesting points is that some El Niņo effects could occur -- mostly neutral this year -- , but since pressures are slightly lower in the Atlantic ITCZ and the water is predicted to be farily warm, it would counter the effects. That's my guess as to the mostly average season projections.

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #3 (of 3 total)
thoughts (#1)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 07:15PM 07-Apr-2001 with id (VSNTRNYNQUS*)

I've never really seen an eye on a non-tropical storm system. Well, I've finally seen one-the low in central Minnesota.
Gray's Predictions... (#2)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.stormwarn2000.com) Location: Gloucester, England
Posted On 01:30PM 10-Apr-2001 with id (RQSNQRRNTNQV*)

Just a small post to say i think the Atlantic Season will spring a few surprises this year, and will keep all the forecasters on their toes...
2k1 season (#3)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 04:50AM 11-Apr-2001 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNTP*)

ive been trying to follow the pacific equatorial ssts all winter, but cant make much sense of the trends. the current warm patch off peru is supposed to be a thin layer, a passing thing. el nino is still predicted by half the models used for climate forecasting, and a continuation of sputtering la nina is forecast by the other half. gray added another storm, but the forecast is still basically a cookie cutter version of the statistical mean. forget all the numbers, only one thing is going to matter in late august when things are going hot--whether that trough is camping on the east coast like it has been in recent seasons. its kept those pesky cat4s away like a charm. my thought is.. this season will play out like 1989.
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