CFHC Talkback For News Story #114:
Newest Talkback: 05:02 PM 10-05 EDT

The Gulf
10:29 AM EDT - 04 October 1999

Once again, we apologize for the lack of site updates. This will continue for a few more weeks, unless something threatening happens. Issues involved with the site going down during Floyd has set us back quite a bit.

Right now the system in the Bay of Campeche may want to form, but it will continue to move west. Right now there isn't much threatening at the moment. Hopefully this good luck will continue.

- [jc]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #6 (of 6 total)
TD 11 (#1)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 04:18PM 04-Oct-1999 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNUQ*)

As of approximately 4pm, TD 11 has formed in the southern Bay of Campeche, near 19n, 94 w (rough position). Recon found 1003mb cp and 30 kt winds. Note though that winds in excess of TS strength are occurring north of the center over the central Gulf. The expected motion is slow and erratic, but eventually a motion to the N/NW may develop. Areas fom S. Tx to La are immediately in need of keeping an eye on this system. It's future is uncertain due to proximity to land and the complicated wx pattern over the Gulf. The system may linger for several days befoer definitively moving. My belief is that it will become TS Irene later tonight or early tommorrow IF it can stay off shore Mexico. Where is it going? Unknown...Campeche systems can and do exhibit all sorts of motions.

Also, it appears additional cyclogenesis could occue north and east. Several waves have tried to form. Stay tuned on this possibility.

In the meantime, both systems over the East Atlantic appear to be getting better organized.

It isn't over by a long shot..remember Mitch...he was at the end of October, and early November. And in 1985 Hurricane Kate moved up the Gulf in late November and struck the Fl panhandle.
Gulf of Mexico Systems (#2)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:10PM 04-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNRW*)

Bill, you are right on the money with that 2nd system. They actually just mentioned that a 2nd low level center has formed right above (almost on land at this point) the tip of the Yucatan. Our moisture has increased quite of bit since about 4:00pm. It is now raining steadily, and I am sure we will see more coming later tonigt and tomorrow. They (TWC) said Tampa Bay will see a LOT of rain, which is kind of different than what they were saying before. See ya'll later!!!
Colleen
Low Level Circulation (#3)
Posted by: Steve Hirschberger Location: Palm Bay Fl
Posted On 09:48PM 04-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNUV*)

Colleen, Not sure about the 2nd low mentioned in the previous post. Is it a low level center or just a band of convection that wants to try to wrap back to the Bay of Campeche? Can't bring up sat loops on my PC for some reason. Seems that a potential center (from what I can tell) is onshore over the Yucatan. Is it moving or stationary?
2nd Low Level (#4)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 08:28AM 05-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNRPQ*)

Steve - They were showing that 2nd low for about the last 2 hours or so. It is over land, and they were concerned that it could move back over the gulf. It was also mentioned in the Tropical Weather Outlook at 5:30 tonight. I don't know if it will form into anything on it's own. I just remember them saying that if these 2ndary systems stay over water for a long time they sometimes form their own circulation and become a separate storm. I guess we will just have to wait and see. Talk to you later - Colleen
Where is everyone? (#5)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 11:35AM 05-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNSX*)

Where is everyone? Just wondering.
Gulf and Others (#6)
Posted by: Steve H Location: Plam Bay FL
Posted On 01:02PM 05-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQXY*)

Will be interesting to see what happens to TD#11 when it begins to pull north as most models project in a day or two. Also of note is the organized convection east of the Lesser Antilles, but this doesn't seem to be making much westward progress. If it stays south of the islands (Puerto Rico) it certainly could become a threat later in the weekend or early next week. The system SW of the Cape Verde Islands doesn't look as impressive as it did last night, but we'll see if it refires again later. This system is at a low latitude and if it picks up a westward motion could develop and become a factor in the Windwards next week. In the meantime it looks like rain and more rain. Colleen: participation in discussions is getting sparse, I don't know where everyone is either. I know I can't post comments from work because Big Brother is watching! See Ya!
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