CFHC Talkback For News Story #116:
Newest Talkback: 05:40 PM 10-13 EDT

Wind shear. End of season is near.
08:58 AM EDT - 11 October 1999

Development if any will be slow especially in the Atlantic due to upper level winds. The only area with a hint of possible development is in the Caribbean.

I also want to apologize for the lack of updates on this site ever since Floyd; we had some serious problems with our hosting company. Our site uses some complex cgi programming and we are looking for a hosting company that can handle the load at a reasonable price. We will wait until this hurricane season is over and we will be changing over to another hosting company. Next season we will be back up and better, plan on adding a live chat area.

- [jc]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #19 (of 19 total)
Irene is near (#1)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 03:04PM 11-Oct-1999 with id (VSNQSNSVNWV*)

hello all,,,we finally have a new storm to worrie
about and it could be a strong one.

I mentioned over a week ago about a system that saw coming together in the sw carribean,,,this seems to be happening,,,,,,,clouds with heavy showers and thurnderstorms are massing south of Jamaica and off the coast of Nicaragua. There are 2 areas of low pressure,,,a 1008mlb low about 15n and 76w,,,,,and another just off the NEastern tip of Nicaragua.

These lows should consolidate into a more defined
low pressure system overnight and a tropical
depression should be classified as late as
tomorrow evening when the Hurricane plane goes in.
Note the sytem by morning could be a depression,
but will most likely not be issued until the
plane has checked things out.

The depression should be upgraded eigther later
TRuesday night or Weds morning to Irene. She
could be a Hurricane by later on Thursday as she
moves generally thru Cuba towards the keys later that night and Friday. The Nogaps model shows it coming a hurricane and moving into the Gulf this weekend ro Friday N,,,and the canadian model has
her moving up the east coast of florida at the
same time. The Avn has her moving into the Gulf,
but only as a tropical storm by then.

Well no matter what happends folks we will have
Irene,,and people from Texas up the east coast
need to watch this system and come back for
further updates on this system..... scottsvb
Irene? (#2)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 03:52PM 11-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNSX*)

Good call Scott. I have been trying to interpret the models to the best of my own limited ability, although NOGAPS seems to change a bit on each run, they are all generally in agreement about something forming. Should be an interesting end of week.
SW Caribbean (#3)
Posted by: Steve H Location: Palm Bay Fl
Posted On 10:58PM 11-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNVX*)

Convection not looking to impressive tonight with the disturbance in the Caribbean, and the models have differences in their solutions; some developing it, others not. You're not going to get the NHC to commit to talking about development on this one since when the models are split, this years experience has shown that these systems don't pan out. I'm not saying it won't, since each system has its own set of circumstances, but there's no circulation or impressive convection yet. We'll watch and see what happens. Thoughts?
Ideas (#4)
Posted by: Mary
Posted On 06:13AM 12-Oct-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNU*)

My guess is that since my zoo of animals are not getting rambunctious, they dont have the sense of anything beginning either. If I dont have the experts to tell me what is going on I observe my dog cats and birds. The ants will go out of their way to get a bite of you in the yard and the gathering of food by the squirrels and birds becomes a frenzy. I see more snails and other critters moving about when we have a major weather system lurking in the formative stages. Non of this is going on since Saturday. I think the opportunity for formation has passed and it will be as I have said all along, a rain event.
Irene! (#5)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 01:43PM 12-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPVNQXY*)

Mary - that was very interesting what you wrote about your animals. I have never really observed it before, but I will start looking for it in the future. Although, maybe I will be spending my time during hurricane season going from the computer to outside and drive everyone nuts. "Are your cats acting strange?" I can just see it!! My husband would have me committed for sure. But, alas, the system in Carib is very much improved this afternoon. Talk to you soon!!! Colleen
TD or Not? (#6)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay Fl
Posted On 05:24PM 12-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQVT*)

The area of disturbance in the Caribbean was looking like it was beginning to spin and a TD might be forming, but once again it seems to have not really come together and tighten on the latest satellite loops. This has been typical of systems in the Caribbean this season. Forecasters move this system to the NNW over the next few days. Report from the recon flight should be in soon, but I don't think they're going find a closed circulation yet. That could happen over time though as conditions are favorable for development --but we've heard that before. Anyone have any other info on this?
No TD Yet (#7)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 06:16PM 12-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNRQS*)

This has not formed as of the last recon. The lowest pressure they could find was 1006 and it did not have a closed circulation yet. We;ll just have to wait and see about this one.
System Developing (#8)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay Fl
Posted On 06:45PM 12-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNVT*)

Latest Satellite shots from U Wisc shows a circulation center closing off - may have been premature in saying this thing was not getting its act together. If this trend continues we'll have a TD tonight. This system looks like it could be large too, and imagery shows clouds over Central Fl arcing toward the SW as part of the outer moisture that will be pulled towards NW Caribbean circulation. This will get interesting this weekend.
Irene is close (#9)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 10:10PM 12-Oct-1999 with id (VSNQQNQVSNQYV*)

hello folks,,this will be a brief update,,,while
I wait for a new posting by flhurricane.

Well as of now we don't have a depression,,but the circulation is well defind,,,the reason that it's not a depression or storm now is due to the lack of thunderstorms near the center,,,the models show a continues tropical storm as of later on weds,,,,maybe a hurricane by late thursday or friday. For Irene to form,,,the storms must fire up soon,,,,,,the system is on schedule in its northward movement,,,but models say it will slow,,,but will it,,,,,hhmhmm is the
question for now......lets wait till morning and then we will know alot more....!!!scottsvb
TD? (#10)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 08:23AM 13-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNQXW*)

It looks much better this morning...looks like lots of thunderstorms around the circulation. I guess we will find out later on. Colleen
Irene (#11)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 11:01AM 13-Oct-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXWNUR*)

This is just a quick comment folks,,,Irene has
formed and I will be posting what will happen
to this system like others,,,,,you all know I forcast these sytems for me its easy,,,,yeah I
will be in the Hurricane Center soon also.
But don't expect alot more strengthening today,,
some,,,but more will happen later tonight,,and
especially Thursaday night as she turns north-
and Northeast,,,,Thursaday night she should be a
Hurricane,,and might make winds of still up to
100mph off the west coast of florida by Friday
morning,,,I will post again later..scottsvb 11am
Irene (#12)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 11:10AM 13-Oct-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTPNRRT*)

Before I begin, I would like to apologize for my hasty statement in a previous comment that formation anytime soon in the Caribbean sea is "equivocal."

Now on to business...and I do think this is serious business for Florida. The official NHC track has Irene taking a direct track toward west-central or southwest Florida as a 77 MPH hurricane in 72 hours. Strike probabilities have already been posted at 11% for Tampa, 14% for Key West, and 13% for Venice, and I believe that these values will rise in accordance with each advisory. Upper level winds are impeccable for development and satellite imagery confirms this with a strong cluster of showers and thunderstorms indicated over the circulation center. Regarding motion...my contention is the same as that of the Hurricane Center Center: Irene will pose a significant threat to west-central and southwest Florida. I believe that Irene could be a rather pernicious hurricane at landfall, so all residents in the previously mentioned areas should closely monitor the progress of Irene.

God Bless You,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
Irene (#13)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:29AM 13-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNSQ*)

Ron - you don't have to apologize!!! Everyone makes mistakes...I just wish your prediction had come true. How strong do you think this storm will be by the time it makes landfall? 2 or 3? Darn. My son's school carnival at St. Joseph's is this weekend...should have known better than to hope for sunshine. Mary Mary where are you?
Iene (#14)
Posted by: Bill Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 11:37AM 13-Oct-1999 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNUQ*)

Great post Ronn, no need to apologize as has been said. Pernicious, eh..good word!

Irene will probably threaten extreme S. Fl., Keys, etc, OR, will go further north than Collier County to Sarasota area. It depends (doesn't it always?) on the strength and timing of the trough expected to move into the NW Gulf. Quicker...So. Fl hit, slower (and/or weaker) maybe into the area N of TPA to the Big Bend.

As to strength, I would say a Cat 2 is likely, as a midrange between the extremes, Cat1-3.

I think it will larger than forecast too, especially as the gradient tightens up.

This one will likely move close enough to the coast as it moves N that watches and warnings will be needed up and down the entire Fl west coast and possibly into the Big Bend area.

May come your way Ronn!

IHS,

Bill


Irene (#15)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 12:02PM 13-Oct-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTPNQQ*)

I opt for Category 2 strength with winds around 100 MPH by landfall. Climatology shows a tendency for October tropical cyclones in the northwest Caribbean to move north and northeast toward Florida. The October 1921 hurricane that struck the Tampa/St. Pete area developed in the same general region and was a Category 3 hurricane at landfall.

It would be an exhilarating experience for me if Irene struck here, but the inveterate problem of complacency worries me. I am concerned that residents would be unprepared especially because of the recent misses of Georges and Harvey.

God Bless You,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
Irene Comment #2 (#16)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 12:35PM 13-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPVNQXX*)

I have one more comment to add, since I have had some time to think about this newest development: I think it may be possible that we will find out this TS is already stronger than 40mph when the recon goes in. It is looking more and more impressive each time I look at it. Any guesses? I will say they will find 50mph..but then again, I am usually wrong. At least I have a consistent track record!!! Colleen
Irene (#17)
Posted by: SirCane
Posted On 12:47PM 13-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQWUNRSRNUX*)

I think this thing is a Panhandle storm that will hit between Mobile and the Big Bend. CAT 2 status and an increase in forward speed in the next 2 days.
SirCane
Strength (#18)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 12:48PM 13-Oct-1999 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Colleen, I agree that this storm will likely be 50-60 mph when the plane checks it out, good outflow and nothing to stop it from intensifying. Since I'm on the East coast Melbourne area, I wonder if it will cross the state and exit somewhere from Vero to Cape Canaveral? Too early to say I know, but based on the forecast track, I wonder if this is a possibility?
Crossing the Peninsula? (#19)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 01:40PM 13-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNUV*)

Steve -- I think that if it stays on the current track it would definitely cross over the state and exit somewhere on the East Coast. The big "if" here is where does it come in at? and how fast? I think this storm is going to be a huge huge rain maker, among other things. I hope that people are paying attention to this thing. I am anxious to see the recon reports this afternoon. We;ll know then how strong it is. Did it surprise you that it went right to a TS? I looked at it this morning and figured it might well be just that. Talk to you all soon!!! Colleen
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