CFHC Talkback For News Story #120:
Newest Talkback: 10:22 PM 09-29 EDT

Technical Problems
08:48 AM EDT - 29 September 2000

11:15AM Update:
Back Up! Joyce has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm, as yet another storm seems to have its LLCC run out from under it. Strange...

Original Update:

The T1 line on which the FLHurricane server sits went down around 12:10AM this morning. There was a fiber cut on the Cox fiber line which caused this interruption. When it comes back up you should see this story. We apologize for the problems.

Joyce and Isaac are still looking very good. Joyce still looks like it may affect the Caribbean islands. TD#15 is very close to shore and mostly stationary. It will continue to be watched by folks in the Northwest Caribbean.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for Isaac., Joyce, or TD#15 From Michael Bryson.
Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental) has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean. Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens. Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #14 (of 14 total)

Dynagel (#1)
Posted by: Rudy
Posted On 11:48AM 29-Sep-2000 with id (QVSNRPVNQPPNVS*)

Looks like they used the Dynagel on Joyce,
They may have run out because TD15 looks like
it is getting its act together.


Dynagel (#2)
Posted by: Robert Location: West Palm Beach, FL
Posted On 11:52AM 29-Sep-2000 with id (QVUNQVQNSNQT*)

Once the storm threatens land, they use it!!!

Dynagel (#3)
Posted by: William Location: Crystal River, Fl.
Posted On 12:29PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTUNVQNQWP*)

Is it really true? are they using Dynagel on the storms?
They better be careful!!!(if they are) Could really be asking for trouble--every time man starts messing around with things such, as mother nature itcomes back to haunt him!!!!

forecasting snafu (#4)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 01:28PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

what the hell happened to joyce? looked goofy yesterday, but it just fell apart this morning. i thought it was gonna wallop barbados on monday, but i seriously doubt that will happen now. i guess that big upper low sucking down isaac's outflow disrupted what joyce had going for outflow.. now it looks like a weaker joyce is set to drive westward. thinking of debby earlier this year has me wondering if i should just write this system off completely.. that llcc is in trouble. well even if joyce does go kaput, there's incipient keith to worry about. and... has anyone noticed the lower bay of campeche today? yeah, persistent thunderstorms, low pressure, some upper ridging.. so what if it's close to td 15. the disturbance forecast by so many models to develop off the southeast may be materializing too.. still too much shear for that to do anything i think. yada yada, quit talking about dynagel, talk about what's really going on. we're in an active period! aw well, take it easy, yall.

Why did Joyce weaken? (#5)
Posted by: Alex
Posted On 01:44PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQPNRQTNS*)

I just do not see why Joyce weakened so fast. I have a feeling that this trend is temporary. As for TD 15 I give it a 75 percent chance to be a TS at 5

Speaking of TD#15 (#6)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 01:58PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQXS*)

Did anyone hear the comment by John Hope at the 10:50am update that this would likely be upgraded to *either* (and I use that with asterisks because that was the word he used) at TD or TS by the end of the day? Did he mean either a TS or a Hurricane?

As for Joyce, ALL forecast models showed a weakening trend. She'll come back around, I think...

Joyce and Keith (#7)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 02:16PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)

TD #15 will definitely be Keith at 5:00. Satellite imagery shows a circulation that is rapidly organizing.

As for Joyce, storms that take that southwesterly track seem to often weaken (almost as if it is not a natural direction for the system to take). However, if it survives the nexty 24-36 hours and begins to track more WNW, I think it will begin to strengthen again, the upper air dynamics would be very favorable for this to occur. I'm not ready to write this system off just yet.

Recon TD 15 (#8)
Posted by: Gerry (
http://Fix and direction)
Posted On 02:20PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRVNRQTNQQT*)

Has anyone picked up the message from the recon flight that went into TD 15 or should I say TS this afternoon. It has taken on TS characteristics in the last 2 hours.

keith (#9)
Posted by: nick
Posted On 02:37PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNQVU*)

keith is looking good right now

Keith (#10)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 02:41PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)

I guess if I had waited 15 more minutes, I would have answered my own prediction.

I haven't seen any loops this afternoon. Is Keith still moving NNW?

Loops (#11)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:49PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNRPQ*)

Seems as though the loops are messed up....last time I tried to run them, they would only go to 12Z...I think Keith is going to be major problem for us in the Sunshine State.

Colleen (#12)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 02:52PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)

That's what I'm worried about. Apparently, long range GFDL models took this to major hurricane status in 5 days.


Keith (#13)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 03:08PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNRPQ*)

Clyde....the recon reports are now saying the winds are reported at 45knts and 50knts in one of the quadrants....and the NHC (as you have probably seen) is saying this will be updated to TS Keith at 5pm. Dare I say it may be upgraded to Hurricane Keith by 8? This is not looking good at all for us...

Another note of interest: Florida Emergency Management Agency is at a Level 2 phase today....1 phase away from 3...why? None of this bodes well for the State of Florida. Stay tuned and prepare for it.

test (#14)
Posted by:
Mike ( Location: Newport News, VA (Currently)
Posted On 10:22PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRNUSNVY*)


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