CFHC Talkback For News Story #122:
Newest Talkback: 04:29 PM 10-17 EDT

Eye of Irene Just East of Vero Beach
07:10 AM EDT - 16 October 1999

Right now Brevard County is expierencing the worst of the Storm, as the eye has just moved offshore and is now east of vero Beach moving North Northeast.

We've had some gusts of winds at our location of near 60MPH. Power is still up here however--scratch that... the UPS (battery unit) is now working.. making it quick.

Hurricane Watches have been issued for North Carolina now because of the official forecast track. Irene has the chance to strengthen again as it is now over water again.

It should be mostly over for us before the afternoon.

For more information on Irene,
NRL Monterey Tracking Site (Navy) -- Very nice forecast track graphics.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFDL Model & Plot for Irene and for BAMB,BAMM, LBAR & A90E Models Irene
Irene Multiple Model Forecast Composite from Michael Bryson

Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: Storm Centered imagery.

[N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #12 (of 12 total)

news (#1)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay
Posted On 07:23AM 16-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQQ*)

Easy for the newscasters to say things aren't that bad -- we've got flooding and some trees down here and winds are gusty, Kids are sleeping on the floor in my room. I guess the center to be NE of Vero-- Has it slowed its forward motion? Hard to tell from sat pix. Another arc of T storms seems to be forming east of sabastian. see ya.

Irene et al (#2)
Posted by:
JimM Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 10:13AM 16-Oct-1999 with id (TNTXNRVNQSP*)

With Irene making the northern turn I am still in disagreement with the NHC on only TS warnings vs Hurricane. I am watching the local news and seeing story after story about damage and people not expecting it to be as bad as it is. Damage is consistent with Hurricane force wind gusts. As far as being accused of arm chair meteorology, I have had formal education in meteorology. Not enough for a major or minor; but close. I just chose to go with computers instead. My points are simply this. NHC is not simply a forecasting organization as much as they are a public saftey organization. As I continue to watch the news, I see more and more signs of failure to poperly communicate what this storm could do. Should people board up on the coast for a TS warning, probably. Do they, no. Yes, they do weigh it against false warning and desensitizing people against future warnings. Warnings are a political game more than forecast game. While the forecast may match the warnings, the saftey situation does not. My complaint with the NHC is strictly on how it has served public saftey. I do not expect a perfect forecast. I do expect them to be flexible and act on what they see and not live strictly on models. A good forecaster takes all of the information available and melds a good forecast. This storm, until recently, has been well outside the average NHC error for a six hour forecast. The 5:00pm six hour forecast was preposterous last night. It was strictly LBAR, which was already off. I do consider the 5:00pm forecast a gross failure of judgement on their part. Sorry I was so long winded. The comments from Dave ticked me off a bit.

slowdown? (#3)
Posted by:
rob Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 11:10AM 16-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNUQ*)

I've enjoyed everyones insightful comments both on Irene and beforehand on dennis and floyd. Just curious,, with the storm seeming to slow down and pressure dropping, what are the chances of this thing stalling for a awhile and spinning up into a stronger storm?

Chances are that Anything IS possible on This Storm (#4)
Posted by:
Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 11:44AM 16-Oct-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNRPV*)

This storm has been a real stinker for everyone masquerading as harmless and benign while devastating the reputations of good forecasting .
So, I have been watching the radar and I think that there every possibility that this storm could double back to Jacksonville or any of several different scenarios. Who would have thought that this storm would cross where it did or do what it did to the east coast. Who would have thought it would stay together crossing that much land, nobody. So anyone's guess is as good as another and it has renewed my interest. we are having alternating brightening and darkening here in Lakeland with continuous breeze of 15 to 23 mph wind some infrequent light spray from the clouds, cant get wet from it just feel it.

Dick and his comments (#5)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 12:20PM 16-Oct-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXUNRTS*)

Dick is obviously not a perfessional to come
on here and tell everyone off. Freedom of thought
and speach sir.

We are upset at the NHC,,,,,for relying to much
on there models,, and not giving a better

Dick maybe you work there and know that you
have a degree, but don't use common sense in
forcasting and only use your (school) models.


NHC not idiots (#6)
Posted by: troy
Posted On 06:41PM 16-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQURNVRNVX*)

Well call it sticking up for Dick or just noticing how how quick alot of people are to get on the NHC bashing band wagon.
Last night to some posting here the NHC was wrong in their publicising a more Northerly turn.
This has happened which the models they rely too much on projected.

Some were upset that that hurricane wrnings were posted and the place they lived had a light wind and sunshine at the time. Well, its 6pm here in Titusville and gusts are still at around 40pmh at times..still getting rain.

Second relyinmg on common sense instead of moedels sounds like a good idea untillyou take all that scientific data out of the common sense which would leave only past experience of what storms do and the paths they take as a guidence for where the storm is going and when and if it will make a turn. With attitude that you leave the public hoping your common sense and not models forcasting any particualr direction is right.

With the forcasted track it did turn to a more
northerly track and still is on that track.

I dont think Dicks commenst were out of line at all, freedom of speech is a two way street.
Maybe he felt as I did that the NHC was being chastised for not reporting what some wanted to hear or thought might happen with the storm.

The NHC did a very good job. No common sense or not

I found this very great web page back during Floyd. I was so glad that I had found a site where like mined interest could gather so to speak and discuss their concerns. Im glad that everyone speaks and says what they feel. Im also gald that we can do this, all of us, wether its something we agree on or not. Freedom of speech goes both ways. Dick had a right to defend the Hurricane Center just as someone else may have a right to call them ididots because astorm strays off course for a while...

Have fun people and, take it all lightly,and be glad we have the resources that we all do.SOme people dont live in areas where tv or internet weather forecasts are an option.

take care

more wind, literal and not (#7)
Posted by: troy
Posted On 07:02PM 16-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQURNVRNVX*)

Any of my comments about arm chaired meterologist where to those down playing the storm and not giving it its respected attention. But as far as acting on what they see, they did announce its current movement as to the NNe but merely stated that models indicate that it will turn more northerly which it did, while not fasted enought to please those grading the NHC, it did none the less. Also your local emergency managemnet has just as much a prt in informing thier public in emergency situations

Jim is right on about the winds. My neighborhood alone has lost a few big oaks, one roof and lots or branches, and a couple of powerlines. River waves were wshin onto 520 cswy just east of Cocoa
Im sure we have seen where the road is washed out on Bethune Beach in Volusia County.

Unfortunatley some of the public and even some lawmaker shave criticized the NHC for over warning us, maybe that is why they were hesitent to keep the hurricane portion of the warnings when the winds were only gusting to hurricane force and not sustained. Either way its allways a tough call. Over estimating tends to make people not take precautions when those expectations of damage dont pan out. Maybe people will now recognize the seriousness of these storms and what a cat 1 can do.

NHC (#8)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 10:04PM 16-Oct-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXUNRUT*)

NHC,,,,,,just needs to use more common sense in
there forcasts,then to just rely on there models.
Thgat's all on my point,,,many other people have there reasons too,,,,,,,,and for a more northward
track,,,that was an obvious call anyone could
of made after it got off the coast,,,,,

take care all

Caribbean (#9)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay Fl
Posted On 10:31PM 16-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNSR*)

Scott since Irene is slowly departing, I remember you alluded to something brewing east of Barbados then moving west south of the islands through the Caribbean on Wednesday. Anything new on this or has that potential gone away? Model info on this that I have access to is vague at best. Any thoughts?

I has all the information i needed (#10)
Posted by: Judy Location: Boca
Posted On 12:49AM 17-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNTQ*)

I have been reading all your forum posts all season long and enjoy them very much, I also go to mikes page and it is a wounderful page, he had said all along that the storm would be bad on the east coast of our state.I just looked at his page again and he has made a very good point about the lack of warnings under Florida Residents ask ? go look at what he said and i think in a nice way you all we see how he handeled it, sorry just a thought from an old lady.

Jose is forming (#11)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 03:00AM 17-Oct-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXXNQSW*)

For the Florida residents and Bahamas and Puerto
Rico.............Tropical storm Jose should be
forming soon in the Northeastern Carribean on
late Monday afternoon.

Imagary is showing a cyclonic low level and
well defined circultion forming east of the
islands there.......

Models which are good for the formation of storms
but not latly track,,,are showing this and taking
it up close to Puerto Rico on Tuesday. A couple
keep him south of there,,,Nogaps takes him north.

Now by Monday when he becomes a depression we will
know exactly more on what is happening. We do
have really good suggestion that a strom will
form and could be a good hurricane by Weds night.

Direction by then could be northwest towards the
bahamas maybe alittle farther south near Cuba or
even closer towards Bermuda at the end of the
week. But lets have him form first,,,then take
away the models and let look at it. scottsvb

jose (#12)
Posted by: troy
Posted On 04:29PM 17-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQURNVRNWU*)

Scott do you think with the timing on this( Jose), south Florida will have time to recover from the rains Irene left behind??

Another note that might be of interest. Hurricane researchers and the such have suggested that we may be entering a period like the 40's and 50's with increased activity. Since 95 it seems that this is the case. While this year wasnt as prolific as 95, the frequency of stormsis definitly on the increase. Any thoughts on this? Anyone? Bueller?

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