CFHC Talkback For News Story #122:
Newest Talkback: 11:31 AM 09-30 EDT

Near-Hurricane Keith.... Joyce
07:47 AM EDT - 30 September 2000

This morning, everyone is wondering about Keith and Joyce.

We'll start with Joyce for our friends in the East Caribbean. Joyce is weakened, but making a little bit of a rebound. Since Joyce had stayed weak, it has kept a more west track and will now probably enter the Caribbean itself crossing over the eastern islands as a strong Tropical Storm. Interests there must be prepared. In fact, there is a tropical storm watch for Barbados, St. Vincent, St. Lucia, Trinidad, Tobago and Grenada. It's keeping south!

Now Keith... nearing Hurricane Strength, is still drifting somewhat slowly. The latest official projections have it clipping the NE coast of the Yucatan. So therefore a hurricane Warning is up the entire east coast of the Yucatan peninsula (Belize border north to Cabo Catoche) And a Tropical Storm warning is in effect for much of Belize.

After it clips, it is projected to take a long clockwise semi-loop in the Gulf. Which places it near the center of the Gulf of Mexico in 72 hours. After this, it is likely to bend back toward the east. At this point it becomes conjecture, but for the moment Florida's west coast may be under the gun from Keith. However, all the Gulf will need to watch. This season is known for strange things.

When in doubt, take the word of the
National Hurricane Center and local officials.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for Isaac., Joyce, or Keith From Michael Bryson.
Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Stormwarn2000 - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental) has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean. Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens. Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.
Live Webcam image from Florida Emergency Management's Emergency Operations Center
Florida Emergency Management Activation Page / Situation Updates

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #18 (of 18 total)

Dynamat / Dynagel (#1)
Posted by:
Mike C. [CFHC] ( Location: Newport News, VA (Currently)
Posted On 08:35AM 30-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRNUSNVY*)

I finally found the source of all the "Dynagel" talk.,1597,213070-412,00.shtml

Still sounds impossible to me, however.

And another (#2)
Posted by:
Mike C. [CFHC] ( Location: Newport News, VA (Currently)
Posted On 08:37AM 30-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRNUSNVY*)

Posted by: Robert Location: West Palm Beach
Posted On 08:43AM 30-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNVT*)

Florida may have a hurricane coming in from each side by mid or late week. Wow, this is going to get interesting!!!

Posted by: Robert Location: West Palm Beach
Posted On 08:51AM 30-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNVT*)

If you check my old posts, I told you the other day that it was a local WPB man that invented this stuff. It was also covered on our local WPEC and WFLX tv stations where they flew a flight over the ocean to show how this works. Maybe Mike can find info about this too.

Keith (#5)
Posted by:
R.A.D ( Location: St Petersburg FL
Posted On 08:54AM 30-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRXNRNSY*)

Looks as if this storm may be a gulf " wobbler " in 72 hours the track is going to be tough to tell.Once it ventures to the other side.

predictions (#6)
Posted by: mike Location: Clearwater Beach
Posted On 08:55AM 30-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVQNRTPNQPV*)

Curious to hear what everyones prediction is this morning. PLease back up with theories as to why and which way.

????? (#7)
Posted by: cd
Posted On 09:05AM 30-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNRQ*)

since it's drifting does this mean that it is ready to change direction...any thoughts?

Could Keith weaken? (#8)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 09:36AM 30-Sep-2000 with id (VSNTRNQTQNQSY*)

Since the steering currents are weak, and Keith is moving slowly, it would weaken a lot over the Yucatan if it didn't accelerate or move northward.

eye (#9)
Posted by: cd
Posted On 10:06AM 30-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNQWY*)

he's got an eye

T#'s From NHC (#10)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 10:31AM 30-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQYX*)

Here are the T#'s from this morning:

TPNT KGWC 301210


B. 30/1115Z (123)

C. 17.8N/6

D. 86.5W/9


F. T4.0/4.0/D2.0 24HRS -30/1115Z-


Now, if you read this from the NHC's discussion this morning, which says climotology would have you add 1 T# per day until expected landfall, we are looking at a very strong is probably already a hurricane, and I would expect it to be upgraded by 11am. Colleen

Keith (#11)
Posted by: clyde
Posted On 10:41AM 30-Sep-2000 with id (RPWNVYNQQTNTW*)

Keith is definitely a hurricane, and I don't believe his slow motion will weaken him as long as he stays off-shore of the Yucatan. This could be our major tropical weather event in the US this year. Everyone needs to keep a very close eye on this one.

It's "T"-time (#12)
Posted by: Kevin
Posted On 10:42AM 30-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRQYNQWV*)

Welcome back Colleen..... I missed my morning "T" ;-)

Here are the T# Classifications (#13)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 10:46AM 30-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQYX*)

I just wanted to give you the classifications so you could see what they are expecting out of this storm:

CI MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson
Number (Knots) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category
1 25 K (Approximate)
1.5 25 K
2 30 K 1009 mb 1000 mb
2.5 35 K 1005 mb 997 mb
3 45 K 1000 mb 991 mb
3.5 55 K 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 K 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 Kts)
4.5 77 K 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 Kts); 2 (84-96 Kts)
5 90 K 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 Kts); 3 (97-113 Kts)
5.5 102 K 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 Kts)
6 115 K 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 Kts)
6.5 127 K 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 Kts)
7 140 K 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ Kts)
7.5 155 K 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ Kts)
8 170 K 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ Kts)

Even in the Met Yield is 3.5 today, we could expect it to develop 2.0 by tomorrow which would give us a 5.5 storm (105knts = 120mph) by tomorrow, or, if you read it as a 4.0 storm today and developing 2.0 by tomorrow (6.0) that would give you a 115knt storm = 130mph by tomorrow.

I don't think Keith is dying. Unless the dry slot out there gets him.

Posted by: Robert Location: West Palm Beach
Posted On 10:47AM 30-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNRR*)

An 80 mph Hurricane has formed officially.

Thanks, Gary (#15)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 10:47AM 30-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQYX*)

Yeah, but T-time today is not nearly relaxing as I thought. :-)

T-Time for Sunshine? (#16)
Posted by:
Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 11:05AM 30-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQYX*)

Hey Florida, I would be quite, and I mean "QUITE" concerned if there with a major hurricane meandering around in the central or se GOM during early October.... can you say "Cold Front

Welcome back, Colleen (#17)
Posted by: kandi Location: deltona
Posted On 11:22AM 30-Sep-2000 with id (RPWNSPNUSNQYT*)

Glad to have Colleen back with the information. Keep up the good work. I know that Deltona is a long way from the west coast of FL, but I would say that if a Cat 2 or 3 hurricane came onshore near Tampa or vicinity we could experience some pretty harsh weather. Am I right?

Kandi (#18)
Posted by: clyde
Posted On 11:31AM 30-Sep-2000 with id (RPWNVYNQQTNTW*)

To answer your question, you can expect a storm moving at 10-15mph to weaken one category if it crosses the Florida penninsula. There can be many other factors involved, but just taking land into account, this is usually what happens (Andrew, Erin).

I was in Kissimmee when Hurrican Erin crossed in '95 and it did more significant damage than I would have expected. Every tree in our complex was down, and there was minor roof damage from what was then a 65mph storm.

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