CFHC Talkback For News Story #123:
Newest Talkback: 03:11 PM 10-17 EDT

Irene heading to the Carolina's, new system forming!
06:39 AM EDT - 17 October 1999

Irene was a minimal (cat 1) hurricane, and did you see the damage it caused on Florida’s east coast? And for those of us on the east coast of Florida think they went through Hurricane Floyd. Floyd was way off shore and Florida did not go through Floyd. Just a wake up reminder of what mother nature can do.

Irene still heading north expected to make landfall somewhere in the Carolina’s. Let’s hope it makes a more easterly turn to spear North Carolina anymore flood problems.

A tropical wave located about 500 miles east of the winward islands is moving west about 10 to 15 miles. Upper level winds may become more favorable for development in the next day or two. We will have to keep an eye on this one.

For more information on Irene,
NRL Monterey Tracking Site (Navy) -- Very nice forecast track graphics.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFDL Model & Plot for Irene and for BAMB,BAMM, LBAR & A90E Models Irene
Irene Multiple Model Forecast Composite from Michael Bryson

Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: Storm Centered imagery.

[N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [jc]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #2 (of 2 total)

Jose Sooner than we think? (#1)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay Fl
Posted On 09:46AM 17-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNUQ*)

Low pressure area east of the windwards is getting well organized this morning, and the latest NRL Invest shot shows it starting to wrap up, with only the NW Quadrant void of any convection. We could have a depression as early as tonight if the environment remains favorable, which it is forecast to be. What troubles me is its low lattitude. Climatology would have systems forming in this area taken well out to sea, but this one is well south, 11 degrees or so, and it could stay well south of the islands before turining more to the WNW, Then NW. We should begin to focus our attention on this one during the next few days. I hope Irene gets pulled further to the east, but I don't see that happening, as it would take a very sharp turn at this point. Pressure down to 982 mB and convection buuilding again in the slightly warmer waters east of georgia,SC. Let's pray that it turns!

Jose is nearing the Islands (#2)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 03:11PM 17-Oct-1999 with id (VSNQSNSVNWQ*)

A Tropical Storm is slowy developing just east
of Barbados......

The latest pressure in the area is around 1006mb

Satillite picures and ship reports show a well
defined circulation around 9.5n and 50.8w
moving to the west near 12mph.

He could be a depression by later this evening,
but NHC might just wait till the recon plane
gets there to get more accurate info. They
might find (like Irene) that a tropical storm
has already formed.

Movement of this system should be on a west-
northwest direction into the islands around
Barbados and head south of Puerto Rico. Winds
by Tuesday morning should be around 60mph when
it nears Purto Rico.

Different models are of cousre different in the
movement, but all show him coming a hurricane
later on Tuesday night. By late in the week
we have a strong indication that he might have
winds near 110-120mph.

Now if Jose doesn't form to quickly...he could
stay far enough south to threaten Haiti,,and
eastern Cuba by Weds,,,,,or if he intensifys
quickly,,,a more northward direction he could
take and pass him through Puerto Rico,,,and off
towards a position between Bermuda and the
Bahamas by Thursday. I will have a more detailed
picture of the system on Monday. scottsvb

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