CFHC Talkback For News Story #124:
Newest Talkback: 01:02 PM 10-18 EDT

Tropical Depression 14 Forms East of Caribbean
06:53 PM EDT - 17 October 1999

Irene is moving along the coast of North Carolina heading northeast and causing more flooding problems for them.

Tropical Depression 14 has formed east of the Islands and is moving west. Projections take it into the east Caribbean. And from there you can take your pick for tracks. It may tend to head a bit more north though.

For more information on Irene and TD#14, NRL Monterey Tracking Site (Navy) -- Very nice forecast track graphics.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFDL Model & Plot for Irene and for BAMB,BAMM, LBAR & A90E Models Irene
GFDL Model & Plot for TD#14 and for BAMB,BAMM, LBAR & A90E Models TD#14
td14 Multiple Model Forecast Composite from Michael Bryson

Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: Storm Centered imagery.

[N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #10 (of 10 total)
JOSE IN THE MAKING (#1)
Posted by: Mike (http://www.fortunecity.com/greenfield/tigris/622/weather/ectwp.htm)
Posted On 08:43PM 17-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNQYX*)

Good evening I have not posted in CFHC in quite some time, however let's get into what I think is going on tonight. The new system should be JOSE if it is not already (hint), this system should do to it's southern latitude slip under the trough heading along the east coast tonight.The system is forecast to become a 75 knot hurricane in 72 hrs thus i'm expecting some kind of threat to Jamaica by the middle of the coming week, if this system makes it into the sw gulf ( and I think it will )it could than do pretty much the same as IRENE in response to the trough's that are waiting in the wing.
Thats it for now, i'll have more on my web site tonight at East Coast Tropical Weather Center try clicking on the web address it should take you there, you can also post on the forum in that site as well,
Mike Anderson Florida wx.
This is to Mike Cornelies, when you get a chance IM me we need to talk about some of the unwanted traffic in the forum's , i'll explaine more when we chat. thanks Mike
Post reader (#2)
Posted by: AJ Location: Sanford
Posted On 09:23PM 17-Oct-1999 with id (RPXNQTNSTNRX*)

I'm not a poster on this site, but I like to read what you all write, I have noticed the posting going down on this site. I think we all need to support the brothers who run this site for the excellent job they have been doing, even with the problems they have run into. Im a computer programmer and I know what they are going through. They have explained to me through e-mail that they are using two different servers from two different loactions one in Calif. and one in Mayland. And that's why the slow down's and problems they are having. They also said as soon as hurricane season is over, that they will be transfering to another web hosting company. So let's all give them the support they need. Thank you John and Mike...

AJ Sandford, Fl.
Opps Sorry (#3)
Posted by: AJ
Posted On 09:29PM 17-Oct-1999 with id (RPXNQTNSTNRX*)

Sorry I had a few typo's. {Maryland, Sanford}

Jose beginning to pull together (#4)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay Fl
Posted On 10:48PM 17-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNUT*)

After initially looking very impressive around noon, then looking quite poor again this evening, TD #14 is beginning to build good circulation with convective bands and outflow becoming evident. Jose will be dubbed soon. Should be south of Haiti in time, but check out cold air and front building in western Canada, this may be a player later in the week. I wonder if NOGAPS is seeing the Mid/Upper level low in the central Caribbean and sees this as pushing it northwest to be picked up by the trough. If this is the case, the low in the central Caribbean is already too far west to impact it, unless it becomes stationary. I see continued west, then WNW motion with this system, then see what happens with a front coming into the picture on Thursday. This system has the potential to become a major storm. Need to watch this one close.
Jose (#5)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 08:50AM 18-Oct-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXTNWS*)


Models are getting together and wanting to
take Jose thru Puerto Rico,,,,,,and out to
sea,,,,posing not even a close threat to
the U.S........

They might be right this time,,,but lets wait
and see where he enters the islands by tomorrow
morning(Tuesday). scottsvb
I hope the Models are correct (#6)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 09:00AM 18-Oct-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNTW*)

Well, I surely hope the models are correct. The Islanders are saying that they will know something for sure by Thursday. There is no need for there to be anymore excitement from hurricanes. Bring on a 3 inch snow in Key West now that would be exciting!
Colleen! Ithought I might Catch you here (#7)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 09:50AM 18-Oct-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNYX*)

Please write back and say the area that the TD# 15 is hinting at forming. I will be checking back with you later on my lunch break.That will be around 4 pm. this afternoon.
Enough (#8)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 09:53AM 18-Oct-1999 with id (QTQNRPRNRTXNUU*)

Let’s put this to rest, once and for all. The NHC is the best source that we have for information regarding tropical prediction, analysis and preparation end of story. You can blame anyone you want and all the computers you want, but you are responsible for your own actions. The problem is ladies and gentlemen, that we often times construe fact and fiction and then point the fingers at the official sources when things don’t go as planned. Hey, if you want to go back to good old fashioned forecasting, need I remind you of Andrew and Dr. Bob’s personal conviction that Andrew would pass to the south of Miami and not be much more than a CAT 1 or 2? Do you know what Dr. Bob’s official title is now? Yes, that would be “Former Director of the NHC”. Not to discount Dr. Bob as he is a fine meteorologist and one whose input I respect to the utmost.

We are all amateurs here, despite those that think otherwise. While I’m on that subject, let’s address that. Scott, you said, “We are upset at the NHC,,,,,for relying to much on there models,, and not giving a better warning.” But later you said, “ NHC,,,,,,just needs to use more common sense in there forcasts,then to just rely on there models.” Let’s not point out the obvious lack of spelling and grammatical proficiency but also that the NHC strictly prohibits any employees from making any kind of predictions or contributions outside their domain. It completely undermines their authority and qualifies as “moonlighting meteorology”, which I believe is an automatic termination from employment from the NHC. Not to discredit your personal qualities as I do think you have some great insight, but no need to mislead people. It is possible that some of you are more meteorology inclined than others, but tagging yourself as a professional will make you a target. Why heap that on yourself?

Enough ranting. Tropical weather is easy to predict while basking in the glow of your monitor while playing your favorite game and sucking down a few beers. I admit to that myself and weather watching is but a mere hobby. It’s much more difficult when you are in the spotlight and you will be the one scrutinized for every word you say. Some of you have made a habit of doing so, be forewarned that someone might be just as critical of your prognostications as well. The majority of you though, are a real asset to this forum and I hope to continue reading your posts for the duration of the season.
Update/Comment (#9)
Posted by: Colleen Location: lakeland, Florida
Posted On 12:14PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQXQ*)

First of all to Mary...they just had another update on the tropical wave (of which I was speaking earlier) in which they now say that they don't expect that one to develop. But I swear I wasn't making it up. And now to JJ whoever you are...I think that your comments about bashing the NHC belonged on another thread because none of the comments before yours mentioned anything about the NHC. As for Scott's grammar and spelling..your comments were unnecessary. Not everyone has perfect English skills. I think some people come in here just to bash and cause trouble. The NHC WAS off on it's forecasted track with Irene...insisting it was going NNE when it was just simply not. Even our own forecasters here locally were upset with their forecasts. I am not saying that they do a bad job all the time, but this time they were way off. It didn't turn North until it was already off the OTHER side of Florida's coast. We are just stating the obvious. If you don't like what we have to say here, then go away. Freedom of speech is one thing, abusing your privelages is another.
I could, but won't. (#10)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 01:02PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (QTQNRPRNRTXNUU*)

Better brush up on your toleration skills then. I admit, I may be a bit brazen when it comes to pointing out individual flaws, and most times I refrain from doing so. However, in cases of blatant fibbing, one must not neglect to point out such fallacies and dismiss them before someone takes them as fact. How can you deny such contradictory statements as being anything else? Enough on that though. I am willing to wager your local meteorologists weren’t all too upset. For if you bash the NHC it’s one thing, if they bash (especially the TV meteorologists) the NHC it’s completely another.

Let’s sort this out for you. The NHC and the NWS are funded by the federal government, actually controlled would be a better word. The FCC is also controlled by the federal government. Who spoon-feeds updates, bulletins and advisories to the local TV media? The NWS and NHC. What agency has the most control over the output of your local TV stations? The FCC. Starting to see the correlation? Remember when the TWC went off on its own little tangent several years ago, making some wild predictions and trouncing the NHC’s predictions? What does TWC do now? Ever hear them grumble about the NHC or even refer to them in a negative tone? I don’t think so.

Point is that the NHC will not go away. Complain all you want about botched predictions that you will. You are not the first, nor the last. I am just remarking that don’t snap at the hand that feeds you. This is the current thread, or was, so where I post is irrelevant. I didn’t see any previous discussions inviting comments to bad-mouth the NHC so why should mine to defend them and their placement in this thread be any different? If you are so vehement about attacking, you should be prepared to defend. Finally, if you were in Lakeland, why on God’s Green Earth are you fussing about the NHC being wrong anyway? If they had been right, Irene would have went right overhead. Guess I’d be just a bit more happy that they erred to your benefit.

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