CFHC Talkback For News Story #125:
Newest Talkback: 03:11 PM 10-19 EDT

Tropical Storm Jose Forms. Irene Stronger than Ever..
09:43 AM EDT - 18 October 1999

Jose has formed as it is moving west toward the Caribbean islands. Soe models take it morth north toward the Leeward islands, while others keep it moving more toward the west. The best, perhaps, would be a sharp north turn and miss all the islands?

Irene never made landfall in North Carolina, and now it's stronger than it ever has been. A Category 2 storm, with conservatively 105MPH windspeed. Moving away from us, but it is somewhat interesting that its still going strong out there.



For more information on Irene and Jose,

Caribbean Hurricane Page -- Personal Reports and Updates from the Caribbean Islands
NRL Monterey Tracking Site (Navy) -- Very nice forecast track graphics.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFDL Model & Plot for Irene and for BAMB,BAMM, LBAR & A90E Models of Irene
GFDL Model & Plot for Jose and for BAMB,BAMM, LBAR & A90E Models of Jose
Jose Multiple Model Forecast Composite from Michael Bryson
and for Irene
Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: Storm Centered imagery.

[N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #30 (of 30 total)
Jose,,,,,,,,,and JJ whoever you are (#1)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 12:36PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXUNWR*)

First comment first for JJ.

I am working on my Meteorology degree and
going to graduate in a year. I have good
grades and am in contact with many at the
NHC. I don't hate the NHC,,,I just feel they
need to use more than the models in their
predictions. Also to note with the grammer of
mine and others,,,,,,I'm sure like other people
on here have limited time to write,,,,so I just
quickly post my messages and don't really look
up at what I'm spelling. Sorry about that,,at
least I give people my input,,and I don't bash
on other peoples spellings,cause they are also
probably in a limited time frame.

Well Folks Jose is slowly forming and should
be a hurricane by later in the day on Tuesday.

The track on him will be a west-northwest
direction just south of Barbados and south of
Martiniqe. I see him around 70pmh when entering
the islands tomorrow afternoon. He should continue
that general direction into Weds morning and be
just south along the Haiti-Dom Rep border. Winds
will be around 90mph,,,,,maybe more. After that
its hard to say exactly.......but a west course
through the Carribean and into central america
is highly unlikly,,,,infact if he enters the
islands more north of Barbados and goes through
Puerto Rico,,,,,he most likly will just pull out
to sea...... will write more on Tuesday.scottsvb
Jose (#2)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 01:00PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXUNWR*)

For a quick comment here,,,Jose appears to
be reforming a center farther to its north.
If this does happen than he most likly will
only be a carribean factor,,,,,not U.S.

Also a couple new models are in showing a
big turn to the north. Lets see what happens
by morning. scottsvb
Acknowledged (#3)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 01:56PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (QTQNRPRNRTXNUW*)

Wonderful, I am glad that you can admit that. I just suggest that you might refrain from identifying yourself as being with the NHC, especially given your logistics situation. We’ll look forward to your presence there after the 10 year minimum experience requirement is met to qualify for employment. I’m not knocking you personally Scott, as your posts suggest that you possess quite a bit of knowledge on this matter. You have done your homework and I wish you continued success in all future endeavors. I mean that sincerely. I would only hate for an unfortunate situation to arise where as someone who might visit this board and take your word as that of a professional. If an incident were to ensue and they pointed at your forecast as being that of a professional, they can hold you liable. Believe me, I have seen this before, and not just germane to the weather arena. It is very ugly and I have seen charges from public endangerment, gross misconduct, deception and something that is akin to mail fraud (Internet fraud).

Call me a vigilant watch dog, but actually looking out for yours, and others, well being. Again, Scott, I am glad that we could get that out in the open and hope that you will continue to inform and enlighten as you have before. You will be a credit to your field. On that note, I’ll disappear back into the shadows…

Forecasts (#4)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:47PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQWV*)

At the top of this page it states that this is not an official weather outlet. If anyone takes it officially, that's their own problem.
JJ (#5)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 02:58PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXXNQPX*)

I NEVER SAID I WAS WITH THE NHC,,,,GET THE
FACTS STRAIGHT WHEN YOU READ MY COMMENTS JJ.

Other than that,,,,Jose should move out to sea
and possibly never even hit Puerto Rico,,that
is to be seen though.... scottsvb
Facts presented (#6)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 04:20PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (QTQNRPRNRTXNUW*)

Are you sure about that? You never said that? Let’s take a bit of a stroll down memory lane here, shall we? Didn’t a bring this up earlier? “Irene has formed and I will be posting what will happen to this system like others,,,,,you all know I forcast these sytems for me its easy,,,,yeah I will be in the Hurricane Center soon also.” (11:01 AM Oct 13) Okay, what did that mean? I wish I could dig back a bit further in the archives here, but fortunately I can’t at this time or I would have some real beauties to show. Well, let’s go to another forum then. How about this one, “Mike Anderson,,,,,,,hey its scottsvb,,,huricane forcaster,,,,well,, I know you would like to see a major hurricane come at Florida,,,but your call on the depression in the atlantic becoming a major hurricane is so funny.” (ECTWC 4:25 PM Oct 6) Nice title, who gave you that one? How about this hum-dinger? “me?? I have a degree in meteorolgy,,,and like many know,,my perdictions on past sytems have been acurate,,,so my point is that I'm real,,” (ECTWC 1:43 AM Oct 9)

I hope you get the point. I have more fodder should you choose to continue on this course. I was paying you a compliment, you know, but you had to ruin that for yourself. I guess you need to take a course in cynicism as well. Wow. I can’t believe you. If you would have only been truthful in the beginning…

Jose (#7)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 04:34PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTSNTP*)

Tropical Storm Jose continues to show signs of rapid intensification and I believe that he will attain hurricane status rather shortly. The latest visible satellite imagery indicates a pristine structure with impressive inflow bands and convective activity atop the center of circulation. Conditions appear conducive for continual development over the next few days and Jose will likely attain Category 2 strength. Thereafter, Jose will encounter the effects of a strong trough of low pressure that will move off the eastern seaboard of the U.S. on Thursday. This entity will act to both negate further strengthening and steer the storm seabound after affecting portions of the Greater Antilles--most likely Puerto Rico.

God Bless You,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
fighting (#8)
Posted by: alan byrd
Posted On 04:37PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNSR*)

can't we all just get along??
Whats with mike (#9)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 04:58PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (QYYNRRWNRPNRSP*)

hi i havent posted in some time i never can get to this site until i just figured out how a little while ago. I have been hearing some
chritisam about Mike Anderson.

Could someone bring me up to date about what has been goeing on reasently.

Thank You.
The Weather Police (#10)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:03PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNUT*)

Robert --- as far as what's going on? There's a guy who has for now called himself "JJ" who continues to come in here and stir up trouble. The best way to handle him? IGNORE HIM. He is the self-appointed Weather Police. To JJ: get a life.
Swirl looking thing in the central carribean (#11)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 05:04PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (QYYNRRWNRPNRSP*)

Hello again Still please post on my previus post
but on to other things i have been looking at sat pics and there appears to me what mite be an upper
level swirl low pressure thing.
is there any forcast development suposed to happen in the central carribean
Thank you collen. And to JJ (#12)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 05:10PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (QYYNRRWNRPNRSP*)


JJ here are the facks you are nothing more than stupid $#@^ing moron who has nothing better to do then sit at your computer and JACK to your sister all night long.
sorry jj (#13)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 05:17PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (QYYNRRWNRPNRSP*)

sorry man i like to let people know the truth as well so maybe we do have a little bit in commen
THIS IS ABSURD! (#14)
Posted by: Jeanine Location: Hollywood, FL
Posted On 05:36PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (VSNQSNTNRSY*)

I can not believe what is going on in here. Is this not a site for people to post what they think about a current or upcoming storm? The path, wind speed etc. There is a disclaimer and who cares how other people spell. Lets get back to whats been going on since the beginning of hurricane season, people offering their opinion of whats going to happen! This is a great site which does have links to official information which all should use. I for one have no background in meteorology. I just find weather fascinating and come to this site to see what other peoples opinions are! Anyway I hope this all stops and everyone who was in the path of Irene this past weekend is safe and sound. To all have a nice evening :)
Jose (#15)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay Fl
Posted On 05:38PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNRQ*)

Since I am basically a contrarian when it comes to the initial prognostications on long range tracks of storms, I have to say its still too early to say this is headed out to sea. Last night I mentioned the cold air building up in western Canada and that it could be a factor in blowing Jose away, as well as the low expected to form off NE Florida and track NE. But how far the trough digs AND the timing are critical. This is still at a low latittude and just because the initial position was set further north doesn't mean its going NW. I admit it looks like the most likely scenario, but there still is a split in the model guidance. This is still days away and influencing factors can change. We'll know more in the next few days. cheers.
AMEN (#16)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 06:00PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQWW*)

Jeanine...you said it...now, let's get back to what's important.
my Apoligies to evryone (#17)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 06:38PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (QYYNRRWNQSQNQPS*)


Im sorry that i said such things for all to
read but jj had to be put in his place.


So my apoligies to evryone at CFHC
Jose (#18)
Posted by: troy
Posted On 06:42PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQURNVRNSR*)

Well hopefully old jose will just move due north and sit there a week. By then my surgery and the subsequent sticthes will ahve healed and I will finally get some waves from these beasts...
Missed almosmtthe whole season b/c of medical reasons...anyone else,lukers included that surf and cant wait for that next swell
Mother Nature (#19)
Posted by: AJ Location: Sanford
Posted On 07:55PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (RPTNRQUNRRYNTQ*)

Have you all not noticed, everything that is man made is straight lines. And everythnig that is Mother Nature (God)made is Not straight lines. No tree's no shore lines not mountains nothing. Think about that a minute. We all can try to predict hurricane movement. And thats about it TRY. Even the educated experts can be wrong human error and computers are made by humans.
Jose! (#20)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 08:17PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (QYYNRRWNQSQNQPS*)



Odly enough jose hasent
realy gained much in the way
strong winds, and even at the 8 pm advisory
winds still were at 45 mph. However looking
at sat pictures, and reading vortex messages
from the hurricane hunters my prediction is that
by 11pm advisory winds will have increased to at least 60mph.



TO SCOTT AND OTHERS (#21)
Posted by: Mike (http://www.fortunecity.com/greenfield/tigris/622/weather/ectwp.htm)
Posted On 08:27PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNRY*)

First let me say this,I don't know scott or anybody on the web, but that does not mean I do not respect them for their comments in my page or any other page, I have seen more than enough of the bashing that has been going around with respect to the forums. I think it is time you all know just what you are dealing with and who. It comes in the name's of many but is only 1. with one IP address. Starting with JJ, moving on to Bill, Robert, Troy and many more I dare not speak of at this time,I myself have had the unfortunate run in with this man of many names on my own web site asking me for my credentials and threatening to report me to the National Hurricane Center, this is why much to all your suprise I used my mothers maiden name which is Anderson as my last in fear that some sick person like the one you are all dealing with could never find me or my family as he stated in an e mail to me which I have copied and pasted for the authorities. Seems he was trying to look up my past in the college I went to, but i'm not stupid I may have been born at night but it was not last night.I stated on my web site that I have attained my Bachelors of Science Degree in Meteorology which is non other than the truth. No matter who you are you have the right to talk about anything you like and until your constitution right's in America changes keep your right. I will be happy to make further any other information on this very sick individual if you like.
Mike
TO SCOTT AND OTHERS (#22)
Posted by: Mike (http://www.fortunecity.com/greenfield/tigris/622/weather/ectwp.htm)
Posted On 08:28PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNRY*)

First let me say this,I don't know scott or anybody on the web, but that does not mean I do not respect them for their comments in my page or any other page, I have seen more than enough of the bashing that has been going around with respect to the forums. I think it is time you all know just what you are dealing with and who. It comes in the name's of many but is only 1. with one IP address. Starting with JJ, moving on to Bill, Robert, Troy and many more I dare not speak of at this time,I myself have had the unfortunate run in with this man of many names on my own web site asking me for my credentials and threatening to report me to the National Hurricane Center, this is why much to all your surprise I used my mothers maiden name which is Anderson as my last in fear that some sick person like the one you are all dealing with could never find me or my family as he stated in an e mail to me which I have copied and pasted for the authorities. Seems he was trying to look up my past in the college I went to, but i'm not stupid I may have been born at night but it was not last night.I stated on my web site that I have attained my Bachelors of Science Degree in Meteorology which is non other than the truth. No matter who you are you have the right to talk about anything you like and until your constitution right's in America changes keep your right. I will be happy to make further any other information on this very sick individual if you like.
Mike
Thanks Mike (#23)
Posted by: BOB
Posted On 08:54PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (RPVNRRXNRSXNXT*)

Thanks for putting us straight Mike. Scott keep up the good work. Just goes to show you no matter what or how many names, it is the same M.O.
just JJ (#24)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 10:19PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXUNQW*)

Well Mike andersons site is a good one like here.

I did say that I thought that was funny in a
statement,but I didn't mean it in a bad way, and
Mike knew that. Mike is a good forcaster,,,like
all of us,,,,,we are not professionals in here,
just the public informing others with our own
ideas and thoughts........I said also that I
will be at the NHC soon hopefully a couple years.
But you need not worry about Me Mike., Steve and
others who forcast there opinions...cause we all
love too,,and we have alot of experience in doing
this,,,some don't,but we try to state what we see
happening. well everyone get along and lets see
what will happen with Jose by morning....if he
doesn't get stronger by morning..he might enter
the carribean,,but he might just skim the islands
and head out to sea....

ALso to note on him,,,,he is getting shared to his
north....this might cause slower than expected
strengthning...making a more westnorthwest move
instead of northwest.....lets wait by morning.
Jose (#25)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 10:41PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQWR*)

Ok, thanks for that report Mike...now, for more local news, let's go to Jose for some insight on this system: Jose: Well, I not sure if I am in the mood to make landfall or just go out to sea...I am just about on top of Barbados, if I like what I see, I stick around if not, I may just decide to chase Irene because she looking like one fast babe right about now. ...just a little bad humor late at night folks. Looks like the pressure is dropping steadily, not in a big way, just 1 mb at a time, but still, it is dropping. I can't wait to see what it looks like in the morning...talk to you all later. By the way...everyone here does a great job...Mike, Steve, Scott etc...let's just keep focused on the important stuff. Like my humor. Good nite all!!!
Scott (#26)
Posted by: Mike
Posted On 10:44PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNRY*)

Scott I want to tell you and all others in CFHC that I have had a great time with you all this hurricane season,I think we have had some great post's during the year and I respect each and every one of you,Please do not let the few that are unhappy with there lives put any of you down, some of the things that i have herd from all of the posters has made more sence to me than the professional people I have been interning for, Good luck to all of you in this forum and I only hope you all can find a home at my web site as well. to all my friends at CFHC
Mike
ATTNION MIKE (#27)
Posted by: TROY
Posted On 12:11AM 19-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQURNVRNVQ*)

I am not sure if you are saying that I am JJ but if you are you need to take a stop . I am not that person. I have been posting here since Floyd and even wrote you about your site using my email address, have at times when i have rememebered put my email address on(check the recent forums Mike).

I only say this because you use my name in the same sentaance as the words" man with many names.
Mike I wish you wouldntmake sych accusations if that is in fact what you are doing. I noticed that the little id letters beside my name dont ever matchthe ones that are beside jjs name. Im sure what your using for ip address info, but mine is not the same as JJ's and you know that.

I feel yu owe me an apology. I for one have never said anything bad about anyone that posts here. The only negative thing I have ever said was when Irene wasnt heading north and evryone was ragging on the NHC. I felt it wasnt the right thing given how the storm was still making its northerly turn. (which it did do as we can see from its path)

Mike you have soured me on this site and yours which i visit alot, hoping my slow isp will let me use the chat room, but I never can get in :(






TROY (#28)
Posted by: Mike
Posted On 06:47AM 19-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNUV*)

Troy you have nothing to worrie about other than the fact that someone has used your name on this forum, the IP address im speaking about is not the same as the ID address that is given to each post's in this forum, I have had post's from a Troy that Had an IP address that matched the person im speaking about sorry for the confusion. Mike
What has happened? (#29)
Posted by: L. Durkson
Posted On 10:20AM 19-Oct-1999 with id (QTQNRPRNRTXNUW*)

I finally get my puter back up and runnin' and I have to wade through a bunch of garbage to get to anythin' worth while. Let me add to this y'all, but then get on to better things.

I don't care who you people are to come in here and discount others. It ain't right, please stop. Go crawl back into your playpens and chat rooms and leave the good folks here alone. We have serious matters to discuss. By contributing and acknowleding that those other posts exists, are we any better than those people? They will always be here, best to ignore them. Make em' mad and they will riot, why give them an excuse? Y'all have to be crazy to think that anything legally can be done, becuase I have tried and it don't work. Let them say what they want just don't read or write back to em'. Children will go away if ignored. For the record, let us be the last time anyone even mentions that again, not even to comment on this post.

That being said. I don't like what is poppin' up over in the southern gulf. Is it me, or is it something to be concerned about? I don't like it one bit, and it keeps lookin better all the time. Course, I am just an idiot when it domes to weather but I do have eyes, an they tell me trouble is a brewin'.
My final two cents. (#30)
Posted by: JimM Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 11:11AM 19-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNWU*)

Since I may have started something when I called for Jarrel's resignation of head of NHC ( a position I still maintain, IMHO), I feel I should clarify. My comments have never been directly related to forecast, except of course the one time with the one advisory. Forecasts are tricky and not precise. I don't expect perfect forecasts. However, my main concern with NHC is with its handling of hurricane/tropical storm warnings. As much as it may be a surprise to some folks, these warnings are for the most part politcal. Government at various levels will take a certain level of action based completely on what kind of warning they have. I am sure NHC was under pressure from some local governements to not issue hurricane warnings because of the expense involved in preparations when it is done. Simply put, a hurricane warning should have been up the east coast of Florida from Miami to St Augustine. Much of the damage that occured could have been prevented if people had acted. The most common quote I have heard was, 'I didn't expect it to be this bad.' As much as overwarning is dangerous an underwarn is far worse. Volusia county EOC was completely unprepared for the situation. They weren't even running their emergency operation center until things got a lot worse then they had expected. Florida Power and Light did not seem to be in position because they thought things would not be as bad. Simply put, a hurricane warning was the correct warning to issue, even if the forecast did not fit. There was a public saftey failure, in my opinion, by the NHC in this storm. That is something that is not acceptable. A missed forecast is fine; but there was a time when the NHC needed to do some adjustments to warnings and failed to do so, putting life and property in unneeded danger. My complaints are not forecast based as much as they are public saftey and politics.
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