CFHC Talkback For News Story #126:
Newest Talkback: 11:06 AM 10-21 EDT

05:03 AM EDT - 19 October 1999

Irene is saying goodbye, as Jose is starting to heat up. At nearly Hurricane Status now, Jose is threatining the Leeward Islands in the Caribbean. Watches are up for these areas, and the projected track takes Jose toward the Northwest, scraping, or even crossing some of the islands.

Mainland U.S. Impact from Jose appears to be very unlikely.

For more information on Jose,

Caribbean Hurricane Page -- Personal Reports and Updates from the Caribbean Islands
NRL Monterey Tracking Site (Navy) -- Very nice forecast track graphics.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFDL Model & Plot for Jose and for BAMB,BAMM, LBAR & A90E Models of Jose
Jose Multiple Model Forecast Composite from Michael Bryson

Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: Storm Centered imagery.

[N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #24 (of 24 total)

Jose, K, L? (#1)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 11:23AM 19-Oct-1999 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNUQ*)

Here comes Jose, but is expected to be turned N away from US/Fl? have we heard this before? It is probable, but stay tuned. Hurricane watches now in USVI and PR.

The low behind J is trying to develop, is about 10 N...the question is will Jose blow it apart with its outflow, or will it persist. It is flaring this morning and there is a fledgling surface circulation.

Finally, what is happening in the Bay of Campeche?..impressive flaring there at the end of a front..a typical October setup. The fly in the ointment is the upper low in the central Caribbean moving WNW. However, if it fades or moves move to N (or S) it may allow development. Interestingly, if it goes more N, or recurves, it may move/pull the development in the Campeche area to move N and NE, threatening Fl.

As all eyes are to the se, are we about to be 'bushwhacked' from the Gulf?


Gulf of Mexico (#2)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 01:07PM 19-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNUW*)

I was noticing the same thing in the Gulf this morning. Looks pretty impressive to me, but, at this time our local forecasters and TWC are pretty much writing that they are Jose as far as affecting the US mainland. Guess we will just have to keep our eye on it though.

Jose,,,Gulf... (#3)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 02:10PM 19-Oct-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXUNSR*)

The area in the southern gulf should not develop
like Bill has said mainly due to the upper low
heading in its direction....surface presures are
very high there,,and all models don't see anything

Anyways with Jose,,,the models keep on pushing
him slightly more westward everytime before the
big turn....was at 68w then 70w now 72w.

We can't rely on the models on the turn,,but in
where around it will be and the strength.

If Jose gets shared in the Carribean,,,he might
not get more than a cat1 and could go under
Puerto Rico,,and if that happens he might want
to go west-northwest longer toward Haiti,,a bigger
threat to the Bahamas.
But if he stays at a strengthening faze,he might
just go east of Puerto Rico,,then defidently only
scare maybe at worst the Bahamas,,,but that's
at the farthest west. This scenerio is the better
of the 2,,but lets watch him into the morning on
Weds to see which path he will take and to see if
the models take him to 74w next. scottsvb

jose (#4)
Posted by: jim Location: lauderdale fl
Posted On 03:29PM 19-Oct-1999 with id (RQVNWWNRQWNQPX*)

Sat pics & vapor loop continue to show increased sheer over jose. West quad lookin pretty ragged and sheer appears to be significant and increasing as day goes on. Outflow was much better last night and earlier today! Upper low in cntrl carib not moving quick enough and my bet it will likely prevent intensification much further in the near term. Contrary to 2pm Adv. storm continues to move to WNW as I am unable to note increase in Northerly trend...... East coast trough fcst 72-96hrs + will make a visit to FL or E cst near impossible. Even if jose stays further south below haiti, jose will never make it past this trough nor will it be able to sneak by it. My bet, minimal hurricane in puerto rico / haiti then rapid turn to north and complete miss for usa. circulation behind jose near 10 N small and unable to compete with jose circulation despite the convection near center - its a bust! Finally---some one explain to me why there seems to be a persistent total unequivical faith in the model forcast, when current observation frequently provides clear evidence that a model forcast just ain't gonna be correct. HHHow can such smart individuals at the hurricane center ignore what is happening so often befor there eyes and continue to enforce a computers guidance. Such is the case when Irene traveled from the extreme western tip of cuba to offshore palm beach! How can one get to palm beach from western cuba by heading N for a day and a half and then turning north northeast. Guess what ? You can't!

Jose and the Models (#5)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 04:28PM 19-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNRY*)

Good points Jim...I haven't been able to look at the sat pictures but what I saw this morning said "West" mostly. However, the models are only as good as the information put into them; sometimes it's hard to remember that little factoid. I guess when we see that trough pick it up and take it north is when I will relax. And not until then. Take care!!!

Jose,, colleen response (#6)
Posted by: Scottsvb
Posted On 05:49PM 19-Oct-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXUNQQP*)

The trough like Jim said will take him
out to sea,,,no worries at all for florida.
But when is the key?? for the Bahamas,,,but
they only have a small threat. scottsvb

Conservative Predictions From National Television (#7)
Posted by:
Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 07:11PM 19-Oct-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNRQY*)

This is not a Rhetorical question, has anyone else noticed that the references to Jose's direction after Puerto Rico seems to be more conservative than before? I seem to remember in the past that if the models were showing what they are today, that the news media in general would have already written Jose off. I hope I am not stirring a hornets nest, but I am also hoping that I am seeing a positive cautious trend in forecasting.

Jose's Path (#8)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 08:18PM 19-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNQYY*)

Well, it looks tonight as if Jose has maybe begun that nw turn already. Although it's hard to tell without satellite pictures, it does look that way. As for the forecasters, I think Mary is right with the exception of TWC...a few of them have ALREADY written it off, saying it would cause no threat to the mainland US. On the other hand, our local forecasters seem to be a bit more shy these days. I guess that suprise in tonight's 5:00pm NHC discussion could be coming.

Surprise? (#9)
Posted by:
Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 09:01PM 19-Oct-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVSNVW*)

I am not sure what you are saying. Could you explain a little more what you mean. I just may be reading the sentence the wrong way.

Surprise (#10)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay Fl
Posted On 09:43PM 19-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNUR*)

Mary, the surprise Colleen was refering to was the NHC advisory at 5 which stated that it would be a surprise to all if Jose turned to the north at this time -- that's paraphrased anyhow. What she's suggesting is that it is turning north now. This whole situation in the Caribbean and Gulf I find quite confusing at the moment. A WNW moving upper level cyclone in the west/central Caribbean could complicate the forecast for the upcoming weekend. The cold front that arrives in central Florida will be weak on Thursday, and if the low doesn't pan out, or is weak over the Georgia waters, it may lead to a stationary front over the Fl waters and ultimately not influence Jose as much as anticipated, Also, it almost seems like Jose is following the eastern pull of the upper low in the Caribbean, but one would expect that it will be pulled more to the west over the next couple of days. There is also evidence of an upper low to Jose's NE. This may also push it westward rather than northward, so I still expect a return to a west-nothwest heading later tonight or tomorrow. I am not by any means suggesting a threat to the US. But there is still some uncertainty with this system. AN A/C should be in there about now. Cheers.

Old Cold Front/warm front/New Cold front (#11)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 07:59AM 20-Oct-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNWT*)

Local weather predicting the cold front slipping through the bay area this afternoon late. IS this time line in keeping with the predicted troughs that will steer Jose out to Sea?

fronts (#12)
Posted by: Alan Location: orlando
Posted On 09:46AM 20-Oct-1999 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNSR*)

The cold front slipping through today and tommorrow isn't the big one. That one will be here on Saturday and will bring temperatures down into the 50s for Central Florida. Looking at Nogaps, this front is a doozy and it's our first true cold front. When it stalls out it will be around Cuba thus blocking any movement of Jose toward Florida.
With this monster, there's almost no way of Jose coming anywhere near us.

Cold Front (#13)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 10:18AM 20-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQXX*)

Well, that's great news!!! I guess we can say "Adios amigo" to Jose. Anything new with that little flareup in Gulf? I have been fighting unnamed pests this morning and have not been able to look at anything really. Take care!!!

Jose say Goodbye (#14)
Posted by: Scottsvb
Posted On 04:14PM 20-Oct-1999 with id (VSNQSNSWNQV*)

Well Jose is going to head out into the
Atlantic later tonight and only give a few
squalls to eastern Puerto Rico.

This storm was the typical easy Hurricane
to perdict for most. All the models showed
it going nw then N, even though the weather
channel always wants to say wnw until the last
moment., but hey they need the rating right.

Well Bermuda should watch out for him,but he
might head east of there heading NE and away
by Friday.

Otherwise the Tropics have nothing really at
all to mention....the swirl east of Jose has
been wripped apart, but might make alittle
comeback this weekend....otherwise lets just
watch the Carribean again by the end of the
weekend..... scottsvb

post Jose (#15)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 05:46PM 20-Oct-1999 with id (QYXNQSVNSRNVT*)

There is some sort of swilr in the s central Carib, that is not related to the upper low is it?
And llooks like a wave (low pressure area) in the Central gulf??

Thoughts and conjectures?

ps..not writing Jose off yet

Swirls and Twirls (#16)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 07:01PM 20-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQXT*)

I haven't even looked at Jose or the swirl in the Gulf...but the last I read from the NHC it was still moving to the NW, so unless it makes a dramatic turn and stays on a westward course, I don't think it will bother us. Then again, I am not a prophetic type of person, it could do anything. But I don't think it will really have a chance to do much to the US. Anybody else see anything in the Central Gulf?

everywhere in the tropics (#17)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 09:42PM 20-Oct-1999 with id (VSNQSNSVNQPR*)

There is no tropical development in the
next 2-3 day period,,,,no gulf, or carribean

Jose's Westward Turn (#18)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 10:46PM 20-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNSX*)

Just a quick comment here...Jose HAS been going a bit more west tonight than predicted (except Steve H. did say that in a post above). I have only just checked in at 10:30pm to watch the Weather Channel giving Jose a fond farewell when "voila" I see him going westward for at least the last several loops that they can show. Scott...any ideas? Steve? Anyone? These hurricanes seems like they always have a mind of their own. It's probably nothing, just a jog...I guess we will see in the morning. Take care and have a good evening..Colleen

Jose......flare up with the system to the east (#19)
Posted by: Scottsvb
Posted On 12:24AM 21-Oct-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXXNWS*)

Jose is moving just west for a brief few
hours due to the weakening of its pressure.
This won't help his track to the north in the
future,,,,but might bring alittle more weather
to Puerto Rico on Thurs. But a turn to the north
will happen during the day.

That swirl that we are waiting to see behind
Jose has nice flare ups and pressure of 1007,
close to depression status........note the
rise in pressure of Jose,,,,this could cause
more strengthning to the new system. Lets
see the morning loops....I would like to see
if it is classified during the day Thursday...


TD # 15 (#20)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 07:16AM 21-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNTX*)

The convection build-up last night of the wave SE of windwards looks much better organized today and if this continues, it will be TD #15 later today. It looks like its trying to wrap this morning, and its at low lattitude so it may have a future in the Caribbean as the cold high pressure moves into the atlantic on Monday, Something to watch.

Possible TD 15 (#21)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 09:41AM 21-Oct-1999 with id (QYXNQSVNSRNVT*)

Agree with Scott and Steve re: possible td 15; as Jose weakens/moves off this other system will have a chance to develop. Given it's low latitude, it could be a potential US threat down the road.

As Jose weakens, he is steered more by the LL flow, therefore, more west. Don't know how long this will go on. It will be downgraded to ts at 11.

Way down in the botom of the B. of Campeche, a little action. have to watch that.


jose, gulf and furthur east (#22)
Posted by: troy
Posted On 10:15AM 21-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQURNVRNVW*)

Ive beennoticing Jose moving a bit more west than nw as of late. I have been in bed after a smallsurgery so I attributed it to my blured vision. The curent path finnaly recognizes this movement. But if this front is a s big(read nice!:) )as they say it is Jose will as Scott said move right out to see. He may still imopact Puerto Rico but should turn as the second front, the cool weather one(!) sinks down. Also noticed that thedisturbed area behind Jose is getting bigger. TWC didnt pay enough attentionto see if it had a nice swirl.

Same with the gulf area..nice swirl, small amount of convection...
Mike I said I wouldnt post here b/c of you mistaking me for another person and publicly doing so w/o ever pubicly apologizng. But I was laying in bed going crazy from surgery recovery and thought hey I did not one thing wrong to you so why should I let it stop me from enjoyig this great site....
Enjoy this weekend evryone...That great Fall Florida weather is coming!!!
:) :)

next system (#23)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 10:39AM 21-Oct-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXUNQVW*)

The next system that I said might form in the
carribean is still looking good.... and yeah
it could be the swirl behind Jose. The models
are just starting to show this,,,,but 1 of 2
things.......1 they show it being just N of
the carribean by Monday,,,,,but also not
move to much more to the north,,,,at least
until it gets to the bahamas,,,,but it doesn't
show it going through florida,,,or missing it.

First lets watch it develop like I said a few days
ago,,then watch to see where it goes this weekend
so we can see a path ...and to see how much it
develops. scottsvb

jose (#24)
Posted by: troy
Posted On 11:06AM 21-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQURNVRNVW*)

Jose now a tropical storm..winds down to 65 mph...
shear from south is blowing tops off higher clouds...convection is building onthe west side but probably a lower level cloud not yet affected by the shear...

Ahh a fall cold front..nice sleepin weather :)

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