Tropical/Hybrid System Developing in Caribbean?
08:36 PM EDT - 20 May 1999
Well well... Early season action in the Caribbean?
It seems like this season is off to an early start, and some of the models (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA) are suggesting a low forming in the west Caribbean that may become a tropical or hybrid type storm. It probably will bring at least gale force winds to some parts of Florida as the models have it moving across Cuba and near Florida.
Analysis shows a surface trough east of Central America with strong associated convection. Although upper level conditions are somewhat hostile, this won’t matter much if this system goes the hybrid route. If it tends toward a pure tropical system it will have serious difficulties forming.
It is much too early to say if this has any chance as it is not even hurricane season yet. But this developing low is something that all Florida residents and hurricane trackers will want to keep an eye on over the next few days.
Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)