CFHC Talkback For News Story #13:
Newest Talkback: 02:16 PM 05-22 EDT

Tropical/Hybrid System Developing in Caribbean?
08:36 PM EDT - 20 May 1999

Well well... Early season action in the Caribbean?
It seems like this season is off to an early start, and some of the models (
NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA) are suggesting a low forming in the west Caribbean that may become a tropical or hybrid type storm. It probably will bring at least gale force winds to some parts of Florida as the models have it moving across Cuba and near Florida.

Analysis shows a surface trough east of Central America with strong associated convection. Although upper level conditions are somewhat hostile, this won’t matter much if this system goes the hybrid route. If it tends toward a pure tropical system it will have serious difficulties forming.

It is much too early to say if this has any chance as it is not even hurricane season yet. But this developing low is something that all Florida residents and hurricane trackers will want to keep an eye on over the next few days.

Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Special Tropical Disturbance Statement from the NHC

- [mac]

Show All Comments

Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #4 (of 4 total)

low in caribbean (#1)
Posted by: jim williams (
Posted On 07:18AM 21-May-1999 with id (QRNWWNQUYNWP*)

You are right on the money.The chances of a tropical system forming are slim those upper level winds are very hostile.It will be interesting however to see if they lighten,which I doubt.

Tropical system to affect Fl (#2)
Posted by:
Posted On 11:42AM 21-May-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNXT*)

I expect a ts to form and affect s florida significantly with heavy rains, gusty winds(50-70mph) and minor beach erosion. The upper air winds are slowing becoming a bit less hostile and will continue to become more favorable over the next few days. All interests in Southern Florida need to follow this situation closely as a strong tS or even a minimal Hurricane will be affecting the area Monday.

Looking Better (#3)
Posted by: Marshall Anderson
Posted On 04:35PM 21-May-1999 with id (RPXNQTNTQNUU*)

It seems to me that it is trying to do something. Although NOGAPS doesn't do anything with it the AVN and MRF continue to show it becoming something.

Tropical System (#4)
Posted by: Mike Andreson
Posted On 02:16PM 22-May-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNSW*)

My thought on the system in the W cariibbean, it is way to early to say that south florida will be impacted by a TS , let alone min hurricane, this system is more likley to just move to the east of florida as a strong gale , i really dont see much rain as the system will move a bit to far east of the state , we will have to wait and see , but all eye's should keep looking.

Show All Comments

Return to Central Florida Hurricane Center Main Page