CFHC Talkback For News Story #137:
Newest Talkback: 09:04 PM 10-15 EDT

Area Between Bahamas and Bermuda
02:23 PM EDT - 15 October 2000

The area of low pressure between Bermuda and the Bahamas may become a depression or subtropical system today or tomorrow. It's looking fairly organized right now, and should develop shortly. It probably will stay away from land, but we'll be watching.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental) Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #4 (of 4 total)

cold core low (#1)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 03:22PM 15-Oct-2000 with id (VSNTRNQTQNSR*)

my thinking is that the low will at least become tropical(too early to say how strong), but does anyone know which way it might move.Please voice your opinions

a slow change (#2)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 04:46PM 15-Oct-2000 with id (VSNTRNQTQNSR*)

It is starting to look like more thunderstorms are flaring up near the center of this low west of Bermuda. Although it still has a ways to go before becoming tropical, I don't see why it shouldn't eventually change. Please voice your thoughts.

Possible Developing Low (#3)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 05:31PM 15-Oct-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUSNQPU*)

I'm fairly impressed with its visual appearance so far...convection is good, and its spiral organization has improved over the course of the day. The latest CIMSS low-level wind analyses indicate low-level winds of at least 40 knots in its western periphery. However, low-level winds elsewhere in its circulation are light. The low is on the eastern limb of an upper-level trough; that in itself would be unfavorable, though shear is not particularly hostile. It looks like there's little dry air aloft in its circulation, and SSTs are sufficient. I'd give it even odds of developing in the next 48 hours. Recon is scheduled to investigate it tomorrow; perhaps they will provide some much-needed info. By the way, if it does develop, given the time of year, landfall on the East Coast is not likely, as I currently see the situation.

gale center (#4)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 09:04PM 15-Oct-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

that sucker is stuck. it's still got a comma signature and exposed center.. might be initially declared a subtropical cyclone. the mrf, ukmet and nogaps runs i looked at dont really move this thing much for an entire week. this storm staying put over low 80s ssts should make a tropical storm out of it by late tomorrow. maybe a florence-like hurricane if wind shear doesnt rip it up. late season storms off the east coast that are detached from the westerlies sometimes have bizarre tracks before they finally get picked up.. (more dramatic examples of this include ginny in 1963 and inga in 1969). the avn and mrf drift it back and forth before taking it north late in the period, so i wouldnt be surprised if what should become michael does a couple of loops before recurving. that's IF it makes it that far. even if it does, like jj said.. wrong time of year for the east coast to pay it much heed. havent had a u.s. hurricane landfall yet, will probably make it through the year without one.
later yall.

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