CFHC Talkback For News Story #140:
Newest Talkback: 03:49 AM 10-19 EDT

Hurricane Michael
05:16 PM EDT - 17 October 2000

Amazingly, Michael has strengthened into a hurricane, which brings into question its potential affect on the island of Bermuda. Folks there will want to keep close eye on it as it has a chance of coming nearby.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for Michael. From Michael Bryson.
Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Stormwarn2000 - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental) Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

- [jc]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #6 (of 6 total)

fanfare for michael (#1)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 08:41PM 17-Oct-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

nobody seems to have much to say about michael. geez, not every year we get 13. give the storm a little credit. pretty tame season for 13 named systems, though. nadine now? odds are less than even for that, by this time of the season. thirty-seventy, forty-sixty, maybe. might be skewed a little higher, since it's been an active year.
have a good one, if anyone is out there.

October (#2)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay Fl
Posted On 10:27PM 17-Oct-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQVX*)

Yeah Hank I hear you, it is an active season and Michael is showing some grit, even though he may not be a direct or serious threat to anyone. I believe we will see two more named storms this season, one of which may get our attention in the continental US. After the trough passes through the east, strong high pressure will build over the NE and mid-atlantic, and some models, albeit the MRF in the Caribbean, and the UKMET in the central atlantic, develop low pressure systems in the tropics that have some potential for westward movement and development. There still are 2, possibly 3 weeks remaining in the active Hurricane season. Many have written off the season saying we got through another one. And I hope they're right. But the door isn't closed yet. So we should stay on our toes. Cheers!!

Comment (#3)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 09:41AM 18-Oct-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUUNQPV*)

I think at least one more storm, a November storm, is possible. I have statistical reasons to believe this is likely. I doubt two more storms will form, though--with only two seasons with 15+ storms since 1944, both of which were much more active than this year, it seems unlikely.

Stats (#4)
Posted by:
Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 10:31PM 18-Oct-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNQVW*)

Good point JJ - I'm tryimg to remember, but I don't think that there has ever been a season with exactly 15 storms.

high count seasons (#5)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 11:20PM 18-Oct-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

the occurence of 15+ storm seasons has likely been higher than the historical data we have. take very marginal chris, ernesto and leslie out of the sample, storms which probably wouldnt have been identified back in the day, and we're on a 10 storm season. oh, im with steve on the count. why shouldnt we get a couple more? last two years we did.. and mitch and lenny were among them.

potential spot (#6)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 03:49AM 19-Oct-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

the disturbance southeast of bermuda looks to be developing. might have another depression by morning or midday, if it continues to organize. i give it better than even odds.. its in light upper winds and a baroclinic environment.. and looks purely tropical.

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