CFHC Talkback For News Story #143:
Newest Talkback: 12:26 PM 10-23 EDT

Tropical Storm Nadine Forms
11:42 AM EDT - 20 October 2000

Tropical Depression 18 has strengthened into Nadine, and is moving nowhere near land right now. It is projected to remain a tropical storm, and not move near land.
There's an interesting area in the Southwestern Caribbean Sea that's definitely worth keeping an eye on over the next few days as well. It's very possible TD#19 will show up there.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for Nadine. From Michael Bryson.
Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Stormwarn2000 - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental) Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

- [jc]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #6 (of 6 total)

19? (#1)
Posted by:
R.A.D ( Location: St Petersburg FL.
Posted On 05:09PM 20-Oct-2000 with id (RTNYRNQYSNWY*)

I think your right John, This has very good capabilities of developing into something interesting. We will have to wait and see .

R.A.D. (#2)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay Fl
Posted On 05:36PM 20-Oct-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNRR*)

I didn't se a prior post. Are you refering to the area in the SW Caribbean?

Steve (#3)
Posted by:
R.A.D ( Location: St Petersburg FL.
Posted On 06:37PM 20-Oct-2000 with id (RTNYRNQYSNWY*)

Yes i am . Under the 11:42 A.M. update.

sw carib/long range models (#4)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 03:52AM 21-Oct-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNRS*)

nadine is just one for the count, a fish spinner all the way. two other things have my attention now; neither exist yet. the first is the sw carib flareup, which you all have already pointed out. that area is always semi active this time of year--now that a weak upper ridge and surface trough are loitering in the area it bears watching. as of yet there is no surface center... i checked the stations down there, and most are reporting slightly low pressures and north to east winds.. until west or south winds show up i wont suspect that the thing is getting organized. the other area im thinking about doesnt exist yet. the mrf and nogaps both develop a west to northwest moving cut off low from the trough hanging behind nadine and move it towards the east coast, late in their run periods, tuesday or wednesday. this is deja vu, we just got michael and nadine from similar model forecasts. the westward movement, even under a ridge, looks suspicious for this time of year.. as does the fact that shear is pretty fierce over the area right now. if it abates though, keep an eye on the western atlantic.
a ridiculous thought.. i was betting on 15 for the season tally. if one of these systems develops, looks like i might have to adjust upwards... again.
yall have a good one.

Future TD #19 (#5)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay Fl
Posted On 11:17AM 21-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNQXQ*)

I believe we have TD #19 (think that's right) forming in the SW Caribbean. The 14:15 loop seems to indicate that a circulation and deep convection is firing near 78/79W, 12 N. Strong convection is to the North and NW of that location. I would be very surprised if this area isn't a TD by tomorrow morning since conditions look favorable. If a depression forms it could develop rapidly, and would bet a hurricane would evolve out of it over the next few days. I have no idea where this might go at this point should it develop. Any thoughts out there? Climatology would support a northward progression, but with a building ridge over the eastern states through wednesday who knows. high pressure also exists aloft in the GOM.

offtime? (#6)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 12:26PM 23-Oct-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

the sw carib disturbance didnt go. now the potential zone for development is north of puerto rico, for this week. different models have different opinions, but the general consensus is a low forming in the area and moving west, turning north over time. avn seems exaggerated, developing a hurricane east of the bahamas by late wednesday. nogaps and ukmet both form closed lows, but at a less accelerated pace, just closing them off by the time avn has an intense cyclone. the ingredients to kick something off are there, we're down to whether or not shear will permit it to generate. that has been, after all, the determining factor this season.

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