CFHC Talkback For News Story #144:
Newest Talkback: 01:45 PM 10-26 EDT

Caribbean a No Go
02:22 PM EDT - 23 October 2000

The system talked about in the previous article never formed, and right now there is once again nothing going on in the Atlantic. There is an area moving east in the Central Atlantic that looks interesting, but I doubt anything can happen there. The only hint of anything that may happen comes in the form of the forecasting models, but since that goes into the realm of pure speculation, there is no reason to suspect something will develop.

I expect one more named storm this year before it's all said and done.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Stormwarn2000 - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental) Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #13 (of 13 total)

west atlantic (#1)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 06:46PM 23-Oct-2000 with id (VSNTRNQTQNX*)

I believe something will form ene of the Bahamas. It appears a low is forming, and i heard that every model had something, either tropical or subtropical, developeing. Plus, it seems the weather channel has it even affecting the U.S. Feel free to dissagree.

tropical weather outlook (#2)
Posted by: Alex
Posted On 01:44PM 24-Oct-2000 with id (RPVNRQPNRQTNS*)

why doesn't TPC even mention the forming low NE oif the Bahamas. Plase voice your opinions

nontropical (#3)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 04:15PM 24-Oct-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

think back to michael.. the current weather situation looks much like it did around october 14-15 when the low that became michael was developing in the same general area. michael took 2-3 days to complete its transition to being purely tropical, so its fair to reason that the low developing out there now will take just as long. the models keep it in the same general place for a couple more days, so whatever runs up the east coast friday and saturday may be a tropical entity. what this thing doesnt have that michael did have was a low shear environment. michael developed directly under an upper cold low; this thing is under a 50 kt shear zone with an upper trough to the north. im not sure whether this will change or not, gonna go check the models to see what the 12Z runs are saying. ill throw this out too.. even though it doesnt carry water yet, but mrf develops another tropical system behind the current suspect area, east of the islands in 5-6 days. if the other models start picking it up itll be something to watch for. right now its about as promising as forecasting snow in hell.
yall take it easy.

a day later.. (#4)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 01:10PM 25-Oct-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

the low is showing up clearly now and intensifying. still lacks the tropical profile. avn really deepens this thing, and on the model plots it is given a distinct tropical appearance.. no trough feature, just concentric isobars. whereas two days ago the models carried the low center across the outer banks they now keep it about 200 mi offshore, that considered a hurricane landfall looks preposterous, but this low should be quite intense, so any transition and we could easily have a hurricane in a couple of days. the projected path of this low takes it closer to cape cod than cape hatteras, but still well offshore. whatever situation evolves, tropical or not, it probably isnt coming ashore.
the long range nogaps and avn, on a side note, block it with a high off the canadian maritimes and have it drifting southward late in the period.

Low (#5)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 03:12PM 25-Oct-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUUNQPX*)

This low is interesting...has a modest cyclonic signature on satellite; convection, though not concentrated over the center, is strong. Though this low is currently under strong westerly shear, upper-level divergence is quite good, and there seems to be little dry air entrainment. If convection starts firing up strongly over the center, perk up. Until then, let's take model-based speculations with caution.

Convection firing (#6)
Posted by: Bill Location: Miami
Posted On 04:10PM 25-Oct-2000 with id (RPYNSNQURNSU*)

Near, or depending on location, over the center....cdo forming? Tropical transition occurring? Also looks like it is moving some west of north...



Loop (#7)
Posted by: Bill Location: Miami
Posted On 04:15PM 25-Oct-2000 with id (RPYNSNQURNSU*)

Now that I've had a chance to take a look at the GOES loop, I see the center has reformed to the N of the previous location, a cdo seems to be forming with a warm spot in the center (faded a bit in the last 1/2 hour), and the system appears to be moving N or NNE.



Low's center (#8)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 06:47PM 25-Oct-2000 with id (VSNTRNYNQRS*)

Where exactly is this low centered? 25n, 72w. Please respond

not quite oscar (#9)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 07:55PM 25-Oct-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

that low is looking more tropical all the time. it should be by tomorrow evening, i think. probably sooner. im a little surprised it isnt already classified a subtropical storm, but am not quite sure what the reqs for that are. looked over all the 12z runs, all still intensify it and brush it by hatteras.. with a northeast after about 48hr. the long range runs still block it off nova scotia with a canadian high and drift it from there.. such a persistent gale center would make seas on the east coast rough throughout the near future. other than that, looks like a closer than usual fish spinner.

Guess it's time to perk up after all... (#10)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 09:39PM 25-Oct-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUUNQQP*)

Looking at the latest (10/26 0101 Z) imagery, there is a definite, broad, diffuse eye-like circulation center near 25.6N 71.4W, based on G8 imagery. Convection over the center is still only weak to modest, but interest has definitely gone up a notch based on the latest info. Won't make any blatant predictions just yet--stick around.

timing (#11)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 11:01PM 25-Oct-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

ya know, about the time we get a confident feel for these things they go and screw us. the convection in the cdo feature on 98L (as nrl monterrey calls it) looks pretty unremarkable now, and our system has probably set back its tropical classification by an advisory or two. i still feel fairly confident that it will be oscar sometime tomorrow. make that formation date october 26th. oh, theres the new tropical outlook.. its a no go for now. just gotta wait until the convection comes back.. it should.

to be, or not to be? (#12)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 12:34PM 26-Oct-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

the convection is back, but displaced to the north.. i have a feeling that no matter what temperature/height profile the recon sends back this afternoon they wont upgrade 98L unless the convection is wrapped around the center. theyve hinted at calling it subtropical, though, so maybe theyll do that. movement is almost due north, and it will run out of support ssts in about 36hr or so. of course.. michael DID intensify just south of newfoundland over 10-20C ssts, that was all baroclinic.. well, 98L or oscar or whatever this low turns out to be should be around for a bit. models are as good as speculation, but they are in pretty good consensus.. the avn and nogaps are now clearly cutting it off and sending it into an anticyclonic loop--the avn/mrf loop is shallow and offshore, but the nogaps circles this storm over nova scotia, along the maine coast and across cape cod. this is still about four to six days out.. the models hanging the storm up like this are giving it a nor'easter quality. the halloween storm of '91 did something like that, retrograding along the coast. since snow is already in the forecast for maine, it could also morph into some kind of winter weather event in new england when it slows down over those chilly waters. i know its all pie in the sky right now, but this could be an interesting storm regardless.

The low (#13)
Posted by: Alex
Posted On 01:45PM 26-Oct-2000 with id (RPVNRQPNRQTNS*)

If this low does not become tropical it may be a more serious problen:1 ir it did not become tropicalit would not weaken as much over cold water . 2 Its stronger winds and hicher seas would extend over a larger area

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