CFHC Talkback For News Story #16:
Newest Talkback: 01:18 AM 06-24 EDT

Lets Play the Odds...
04:29 PM EDT - 23 June 2000

The little wave just west of Africa is going to be a little bugger. Climatology, (basically historical records of weather activity) is 100% against something forming out here. Nothing has in June (not even a depression). But it is persisting.

To the north and west of the system lies relatively strong shear. However, it's just far enough south to escape it immediately and slide underneath this influence. (How long it can maintain this is another thing). Usually around 35 degrees west or so, these early systems die out. But it could persist.

Sea surface temperatures are just above what's needed to sustain a tropical storm. The Dvorak T numbers (satellite photo derived windspeed) suggest a depression now ~1.5. But this is questionable.
Nevertheless the chance of it becoming a depression--and it would be the FIRST ever recorded to form anywhere this far east (By FAR) in June--is up around 40% in my eye now. I'd give it much less chance of becoming a named tropical system.

If it does develop, it will be a wake up call to many people (me included), because it just doesn't (normally) happen.

Note that it would be nearly impossible to survive the trek across the Atlantic even if it does form.

Anyone have more insight? Use the comment button next to the headline to do so.

I still don't think it's a good indicator for the rest of the season, though. (What's more interesting about indicators of this season's future more relates toward the general path of storms... being the bermuda high for one)

More Sat images:
[N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #4 (of 4 total)

Cape Verde Season (#1)
Posted by:
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. ( Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 04:33PM 23-Jun-2000 with id (RTNRNUSNVY*)

[ Post from Previous News Item Copied to current story by mac]

I believe that the present activity along the ITCZ is a precurser of an active Cape Verde season. However, just because we have unusually high activity off the African coast in June, does not necessarily mean that it will continue. I agree with Dr. Gray's prediction of 12 named storms. I think we will have a slightly above normal season, but not an overwhelmingly above normal season. The Cape Verde season should be active, however. The orientation of the Bermuda High will cause problems for the southeast U.S.

Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.

Wave (#2)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 10:52PM 23-Jun-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNUR*)

I don't think the T Dverok numbers are that far off...ships out there have been reporting in on a consistant basis that the winds from the south are at 55knts and the pressure is dropping persistently, if not dramatically. As for climatology, just because we haven't seen in (except in 1888) does not mean it will not happen. It has good banding, it's in the right water temperature and a high building in the Caribbean could help lessen the shear..and with the number of waves just ABOUT to come off the coast, I would not question the validity of this becoming a named storm. Also,the latest ship reports are also showing strong winds out of the north. So don't throw out this system yet. It might just surprise us all. Regards, Colleen

Posted by: Mike (
Posted On 11:48PM 23-Jun-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNQXQ*)

Visible satellite presentation IR., TRMM, SSM/I microwave showed a clear LLCC for the past 24H not to mention scatterometer winds sustained at 40/50 kts and curved banding on both the E and SE side of the center. When a claim is made NO TROPICAL TD HAS EVER FORMED THIS EARLY, is that just an indication of how long we have been watching this genesis area. My guess would be just about 30 years of reasonable data has come from the area. Than I argue that it is possible that we are looking at a 50 year event here. To say no TD has ever formed could be corrected by saying that any TD in the past that did form in this geneses area but dissipated would have never been noticed.

WAVE (#4)
Posted by: scottsvb (
Posted On 01:18AM 24-Jun-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXWNQXS*)

the pressure of the wave as of late friday night is still near 1010mb. Winds are erractic between 15-35mph,,with some higher gusts. Thunderstorms as perdicted have faded some. That should come and go over the next day or 2.
The NHC is correct by not making this a TD like I said in a earlier post on my site. It does have a defined circulation,,,but lets all not over do this for it has to make it another day or 2. The NHC wants to see persistance like I do for it to be named a TD. But we have to make sure also all our data is not guessed.
Thank god for people posting on all our sites though,,,we do have good people. To see more discussions feel free to browse my site....scottsvb

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