CFHC Talkback For News Story #2:
Newest Talkback: 10:19 PM 01-28 EDT

The Predictions
01:16 PM EST - 16 January 2001

On December 7th of last year, Dr. William Gray and his department at Colorado State University release the new
projections for the 2001 Hurricane Season.

This included 9 named storms and 5 Hurricanes (Two of which are intense). One of the features mentioned last month was a weak or mild El Niņo event this summer. So far this year, it looks as if a weak El Niņa event may occur instead. If so, the numbers may be adjusted up when he updates his forecast in a few months. Either way, I think we'll see around an average number of stoms this year, and probably at least one US landfalling hurricane. (Last year we had no US landfalling hurricanes.. a few tropical storms, but no hurricanes)

We'll be watching.

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #3 (of 3 total)

LA NINA (#1)
Posted by:
Posted On 05:31PM 17-Jan-2001 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNRP*)

La Nina is forecast to last till the latter spring. The neutral phase is suppose to be starting in the summer. Each forecast model seems to keep the La Nina episode a little longer. A few months ago it did look like neutral conditions were starting then cooler anomalies reappeared. Who knows. I sure don't. We can only watch,wait and see. As for the upcoming prediction on storms,hurricanes it would come to the common denominator of La Nina and other factors. See you all in a couple of months.

just (#2)
Posted by: Alex
Posted On 10:20PM 27-Jan-2001 with id (VSNTRNQTTNQYS*)

Just124 days untill hurricane season

2k1 (#3)
Posted by: hankfrank Location: tallahassee
Posted On 10:19PM 28-Jan-2001 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNWR*)

the persistence of la nina has to be driving poor dr. gray completely playing it safe, giving us the statistical mean for the time being, more or less. i dont put much faith in the december forecast, because all it takes is a month or two for el nino to start turning the global circulation patterns around, should it begin. last year there wasnt really a very strong la nina, just that madden-julian thing that seemed to be running the show. i'll feel better about the numbers gray shows in june. not a whole lot better though, some el nino years (eg. 1969) can get pretty busy too. the exact numbers really dont hold much weight, its just whether or not a category four smashes into the u.s. coast. when was the last time THAT happened in a la nina year? 1961. 34 years ago. all the rest-betsy, beulah, camille, hugo, andrew-were in enso neutral or positive years. for all the active seasons we've been having lately i dont see that it makes much difference in whether or not we get a truly awful one.
middle o winter, but some of us seem to think hurricanes year around. see the rest of ya when the action starts.
later folks.

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