CFHC Talkback For News Story #20:
Newest Talkback: 07:01 PM 05-02 EDT

Shuttle Lands In California
Updated 2PM - Original 09:03 AM EDT - 01 May 2001

Updated 2PM:

This afternoon we find even more uncertainty with this spin off system. Best guess is some sort of center forming near the weekend off the coast of Ponce Inlet. This center is unrelated to what's out there now, and is a combination of the unusually large high on the north side an upper level system going southeast along with our trof. This little area of instability will give us the best shot of rain tomorrow night (just a guess), but then will pull itself together into this center offshore. Gale or no, we could see some strong winds and possible erosion. A nasty weekend for beach plans if nothing else. I must state nothing in this viewpoint I am certain of, execpt for the uncertainty.

Original Update:

Since the weather here has been iffy at best, the Endeavour mission STS-100 will be landing at Edwards Air Force Base instead of Kennedy Space Center.

Why? Our friend the trof to the south. Still not a closed system, but may wind up becoming that as the week goes on.

What's the latest thinking? Well rain will drift in from the east coast on occasion, but there won't be any widespread rain today. The trof actually is through the Gulf of Mexico into the northwest Caribbean and trying to spin off something in the Bahamas. If anything happens (AVN especially wants this to it seems), it will be most likely a non-tropical gale. The effect will be minimal right now, beyond some showers and cloudy weather.

However, I'm still not sure that the AVN is correct, the Gale may not form. It not forming is the more likely solution right now, so I'm leaning that way at the moment. The general shear in the area will help this.

Still it's worth some passive watching.

Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #3 (of 3 total)

Posted by: scottsvb (
Posted On 12:26PM 01-May-2001 with id (QRNWWNQTQNQVP*)

You nailed it right on the button with
your forcast. I agree that it may be a gale
center at most. 1 The water now in the Bahamas
is around 74-78 just shy of making it form
and also the wind sheer is tremendous. But
like you say,,,alot of wind and rain should
be in for the east coast with the west coast
areas having some rain with locally heavyer
amounts. West Coast is way under avg for rainfall
and Tampa still leads the country with the biggest
2year defiset.
The system might be a gale center and also
more likely later by the weekend when it heads
away from florida. Anyways again you got it
correct I feel.

Must Qualify (#2)
Posted by:
Mike C. [CFHC] ( Location: Orlando, FL
Posted On 01:58PM 01-May-2001 with id (RPXNVSNQVVNQY*)

I must qualify the original article a bit by stating the possible "gale center" wouldn't be where the current mass of clouds are but more west. (Thus the mention of the long trof)

I don't think the environment could support much of a gale, though. So I really don't expect all that much. It will remain windy, though.

Dropped the ball (#3)
Posted by:
Rick D ( Location: St Pete
Posted On 07:01PM 02-May-2001 with id (RTNRXNUSNQSX*)

I think all the weather forecasters dropped the ball , as far as this one goes . They were calling for 4 days of rain here in St Petersburg, not a drop ? But anyway that is why we call them weathermen . C-Ya MEAN SEASON IS COMIN !!

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