Models and Mongering
11:20 AM EDT - 07 May 2001

Cool link of the day: USGS Coastal Change Hazards Includes a lot of good before and after photos of erosion due to hurricanes and other storms.

Now is the time of year when hurricane season is coming up, and when some of the forecast models tend to get a little crazy. Especially the MRF, which I still like to call the most ridiculous forecast. What they are good for when they do this is give us a good indication of trends to look out for in the coming months.

Wave mongering happens when models start going nuts, and I'm usually overly cautious when it comes to mentioning them. Usually this time of year into July. When the MRF wants to develop a low, you have to watch for consistency. Use them as a tool for general areas to watch, but I caution anyone reading too much into them. Climatology and common sense is a very good method to weigh if something will happen or not if the models start spewing it forth.

The model trends do suggest that if an early season storm happens the most likely spot will be the Caribbean or near the Bahamas. However, I still think this is mostly bogus and that we won't see any named storms until July. Unlike last year, I think one will happen before August. May, No way. As for June... Too Soon. July, watch those highs. August, track you must. September, we'll remember. October, Almost Over...

More or less, this early season will be ripe for Wave Mongering. The tropics are in a different situation from the recent few years past, and this unknown will breed the mongering. A little bit is good, since it brings an awareness of the situation, but too much is counterproductive.

- [kc]