CFHC Talkback For News Story #25:
Newest Talkback: 11:48 PM 05-11 EDT

El Niņo No?
02:43 PM EDT - 10 May 2001

Our server's link is having trouble, so the web site may be going up and down today. Our colocation service should have it fixed by tomrrow. Thanks. - MC

There is some evidence that the El Niņo effect this summer probably won't be as pronounced. In fact, I'm willing to bet it won't even be much of a factor in the late season. The climate prediction center has hinted at revising down the eariler projections of an event happening in August. The hot water anomalies that were starting to pop up have just disappeared in the last month or so. This just drives up the chances for something to occur this year. Like we need that.

So go forth with wave mongering and get it broken in. With too many teases I think that will show up in our early season this year, it's going to be wild for it -- I still don't expect anything to develop into a named storm early, though. Well even so, I still love it, as long as they stay away from land.

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #11 (of 11 total)
CPC DISCUSSION (#1)
Posted by: LONNY Location: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
Posted On 06:03PM 10-May-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPRNQVS*)

They finally updated their "diagnostic discussion".It seems they have put off the El Nino till Fall or later. This factor is one of two that Dr. Grey talked about in his updated forecast. The QBO was the second factor which could inhibit this years Hurricane numbers. This phase is suppose to be from the east which could inhibit the numbers some. We'll have to wait and see. Mean time it is time to get prepared, not when it is bearing down on you.... LATER
Lon and Paul (#2)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: New Smyrna Beach, FL (Currently)
Posted On 07:36PM 10-May-2001 with id (RPYNQUVNRTPNQQ*)

I'm going to have to agree. I tried to avoid the hype in the post, but this highlight is important in doing that. The QBO will be the only real dampener on the season until fairly late. It's a fairly significant one, so if there is a saving grace this season this just may be it. Now that the server link is back to normal, it's time to get to work here. And being prepared now rather than later is always the smartest path.

As for Paul in the previous post, I can understand how you may think it is neat. But, I remember the time of Floyd well, and it was anything but. The server going down was the least of my problems at the time. The energy in the fascination with the systems is better put toward education. Wishcasting is a dangerous game.
El Niņo (#3)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 08:02PM 10-May-2001 with id (QRYNQQUNUUNQSV*)

My "sources" also suggest that if an El Niņo is around the corner, atmospheric conditions are giving no hint of it. Conditions remain stubbornly neutral.
Server Update (#4)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: New Smyrna Beach, FL (Currently)
Posted On 09:39PM 10-May-2001 with id (RPYNQUVNRTPNY*)

The link to CFHC may be sporadically down through tomorrow. :( It should clear up by the weekend, though.
ENSO neutral (#5)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 01:40AM 11-May-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNWY*)

neutral.. i remember how cold it was in december.. that was attributed blocking from a neutral ENSO state. i'm wondering, what kind of season can we expect if we were to draw ENSO neutral (la nada ive heard it called), or get very weak el nino or la nina, for this year? i dont just mean numbers of storms, i mean can we expect more of the early and late types, more of the low or high latitude development, or maybe more storms with oddball tracks?
any climatologists out there?
LA NADA (#6)
Posted by: LONNY Location: HOLLYWOOD FL
Posted On 07:56AM 11-May-2001 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNXT*)

Very good point HANKFRANK. I think you can find some of those answers on Dr. Grey's April updated forecast. If not goto NHC its got to be there. If I had the time I'd look but got to go. I still think Dr. grey will raise the stakes by one come June. I talk about his theories the most because he seems to put the most scientific work in it. Plus he is a Doc. Everybody else who puts there two bits in don't even have a degree but it's still good to here everyones theories. Later..
el nino and la nina (#7)
Posted by: LUIS Location: santurce PR
Posted On 11:40AM 11-May-2001 with id (RPVNYYNRQXNRTR*)

I am new in this board and I hope to discuss about the hurricane season thats comming fast .I see el nino neutral now and la nina still a little bit alive .This neutral condition now will make the el nino factor a non factor because it will not come in full force in the fall .I agree that the QBO will be the only inhibiting factor for this year but it will also fade away slowly in late august so we can have an active season .DR GRAY will upgrade by one or two the numbers . We will see what happens .
QBO (#8)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.stormwarn2000.com) Location: Gloucester, England
Posted On 05:47PM 11-May-2001 with id (RQSNQRRNSNQWQ*)

Can someone tell me what this QBO is please??
QBO (#9)
Posted by: John C (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa
Posted On 07:35PM 11-May-2001 with id (RTNYUNRTPNQQV*)

QBO - Quasi-Biennial Oscillation - Increased hurricane activity occurs for westerly (positive) zonal wind anomalies; reduced hurricane activity for easterly (negative) zonal wind anomalies.

Forcasts? (#10)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 10:49PM 11-May-2001 with id (QRNWWNQSYNV*)

Well My early forcasts call for
11 named storms and 6 to be Hurricanes
and 3 of them over 110mph. I feel
we will have a depression or maybe 2 by early
July and a good chance of a storm by then.
The ssts are near normal in the Gulf and
carribean but the Presures remain low further
northward then usual due to the Bermuda
high being alittle more NE then usual. Many
little swirls could develop in late may thru
early July with what I said posibly happening
above. Only factor in inhibiting will be the
ssts will be marginal at the times and also
how the upper level winds will be during the
system. SVB
QBO (#11)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: New Smyrna Beach, FL (Currently)
Posted On 11:48PM 11-May-2001 with id (RTNYUNRTPNQQV*)

Here's a decent link to a paper that discusses the QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation):
http://ugamp.nerc.ac.uk/hot/ajh/qbo.htm
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