CFHC Talkback For News Story #25:
Newest Talkback: 11:57 AM 07-17 EDT

Got Storms?
09:44 AM EDT - 17 July 2000

Well, if you count the bit in the west Caribbean, we've got one thing to look at. It has no chance of developing, of course, being so close to land and all. Yesterday there was a semi-interesting area in the Central Atlantic, but since then it has died out.

The rest of the Atlantic continues to be inactive. Sinking air in most of the Atlantic will continue to prevent any Cape Verde storms from forming. I see no indications of this situation changing before the end of July.

What could possibly break this prediction? Something odd forming in the West Caribbean or Gulf. That won't happen this week, though. Next week, if at all in July. The Atlantic has a few signs of wanting to get over this "hump" in inactivity, but nothing that suggests development. Which is all just as well. Pining for storms to track is not what I consider a good attitude about hurricanes in general. This is the fifth year we've been doing this web site, and over time you start to pick up on things with the early season. (Pre Mid-August). Every year, though, we get some surprises. This year will be no different. And after this statement, barring no surprises, I predict no named storms in July.

What do you think?

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #2 (of 2 total)

Indicators (#1)
Posted by: Bill Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 11:05AM 17-Jul-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Hi- great site. Thanks fo the poll!

I just wondered, based on your last post, what indications you see of the Atlantic trying to 'get over the himp" re: subsidence.

This seems to be a very unusual season start:

1. It resembles '97 in some ways- a very inactive year
2. A lot of early season activity off of Africa that seems to have faded
3. Nothing really happening in the Gulf or Caribbean
4. Although H2O temps in the Atlantic seem to be coming around, there is still large pool of below normal water between Africa and the Antilles
5. An anomalously quiet pattern int he EPAC, but no compensatary upswing in the Atlantic.
6. A lot of northerly and NW'ly flow over the Gulf area.

What do you (or anyone else think)?

I generally feel the season will not get chugging until about the same time last year (mid-August) and then we will go to town, with one joker int the deck....If El Nino rapidly returns in October the season could be truncated. Otherwise, as we have seen in the last few year, Mid/late August to November will be busy.

Still, weather patterns in the country do not seem typical for this time of year. The weather certainly is mixed up!


Re: Indicators (#2)
Posted by:
Mike C. [CFHC] ( Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 11:57AM 17-Jul-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)

I'm with you on the thought that it will won't get going until Mid-August. This year probably will be an average year as far as number of storms because of that, and the reasons you listed.

1997 was an El Nino year, though, while this year isn't. That's what is strange, to me anyway.

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