CFHC Talkback For News Story #26:
Newest Talkback: 08:14 AM 05-14 EDT

AVN/MRF to get Upgraded
12:01 AM EDT - 12 May 2001

Thankfully these new models are getting an upgrade on May 15th. (thanks Don) It promises less "false alarms" with storms. Some of the new bits include the Inclusion of cloud condensate as a history variablem the use of the cloud condensate in the calculation of radiative transfer, and the inclusion of cumulus momentum mixing. All of which hopefully will give us one more improved tool to track the new storms.

When the hurricane center tested the new model with last years data, it found it much less likely to give the false alerts, and was less likely to have a positive (warm) intensity bias (the modified model is somewhat the opposite).

We will see this year.

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #2 (of 2 total)
whoa (#1)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 02:02AM 14-May-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNXV*)

inclusion of cloud condensate? cumulus momentum mixing? i'm guessing that they are variables for the thermodynamics equations those models use..? hmm.. a lot of that post is over my head. could you maybe dumb it down a bit, cause i would like to know what that stuff means for those models. i'm pretty fond of the avn/mrf, mostly because i find it graphically easy to interpret (and because it dares to make ludicrously long range forecasts). and yes, i've noticed how it goes a bit off the deep end with tropical systems.. as it fails to shear out most every little disturbance that comes along. well.. yeah, i really would appreciate a non-degree tutorial.
Etc. (#2)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Orlando, FL (Currently)
Posted On 08:14AM 14-May-2001 with id (VVNRPNQQYNQQX*)

The gist of the article was to describe the models improvements. I'm not all that familiar with the model conditions either. But the desired results of it are the important part.

Also there is a new model (MSM) under development is reported to be an order of magnitude better than the MRF.

Throwing all these terms out is something I usually avoid, but for those that want to learn more, we want to give avenues to do that.

Thanks
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