AVN/MRF to get Upgraded
12:01 AM EDT - 12 May 2001
Thankfully these new models are getting an upgrade on May 15th. (thanks Don) It promises less "false alarms" with storms. Some of the new bits include the Inclusion of cloud condensate as a history variablem the use of the cloud condensate in the calculation of radiative transfer, and the inclusion of cumulus momentum mixing. All of which hopefully will give us one more improved tool to track the new storms.
When the hurricane center tested the new model with last years data, it found it much less likely to give the false alerts, and was less likely to have a positive (warm) intensity bias (the modified model is somewhat the opposite).
We will see this year.