CFHC Talkback For News Story #30:
Newest Talkback: 11:28 PM 08-04 EDT

When Will it Start?
02:05 PM EDT - 25 July 2000

Last year we did not see any named storms (outside of Arlene in June) until the 18th of August (with Bret, which formed in the Gulf as a major hurricane, making landfall in a nearly deserted part of the Texas coast) It looks like this year will be along those same lines, although I expect a named storm before the 18th this year. Not in July, though.

There are hints and maybes out in the Atlantic now, but at the moment nothing seems a sure bet to form. The forecasting models are not picking up anything that would last either.

Rumors have it that Dr. Gray and Co will be lowering their predictions by a hair. (Possibly by one named storm). Even so, it still would be predicted a slightly more active than an average year. Last year we wound up with 12 named storms. From Arlene to Lenny, which was unexpected. This also brings up the fact that even though we haven't seen much yet, it does NOT mean it will not be a dangerous year for the storms.

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Comments? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #24 (of 24 total)
Tropical Development (#1)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 03:06PM 25-Jul-2000 with id (QRNWWNQWWNSP*)

I believe we may have a possible tropical system developing in about 48-72 hours. The newest wave comming off of Africa though right now showing no signs of development except for being very active with showers and thunderstorms looks like the first real shot at a system. Upper air is forcasted to be favorable and water temperatures are approaching the magical 80 degree mark. Though development will be slow at first I do believe we may see some development out of this one. Some models are now showing a developing tropical system approaching the northeastern islands of the carribean in about 5-6 days. It may be time...Will see>>>
Last year's storms (#2)
Posted by: Steve h. Location: palm bay
Posted On 04:42PM 25-Jul-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

As I remember, we had 12 named storms not 16, from Arlene to Lenny
Doh (#3)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 04:49PM 25-Jul-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)

You are right. I can't believe I let this one slip by so easily. :)

- Mike C.

I'm still thinking that a storm will form over the weekend just to spite me.
LATE SEASON (#4)
Posted by: LONNY Location: MIAMI FL
Posted On 07:00PM 25-Jul-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNVS*)

Just like last year this one will start late. La Nina is fading but it probably won't be gone till late in the year, completely. That is one factor of a little above the average besides many others.I think there will be some mean Hurricanes out there late in the season.Well, that's just my theory.
Waves (#5)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 07:04PM 25-Jul-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNSQ*)

Yeah, I had to think about it, I knew we at least got to Lenny. Anyhow, we've got another strong wave off the coast of Africa.....Let's see if this one survives. It appears to have a circulation...but so did the other ones. cheers.
Could it be? (#6)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: England, UK
Posted On 07:05PM 25-Jul-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSRNQSQ*)

I agree with Mark. The wave off africa does not show much atm. But the AVN and FNMOC models, to name just two, indicate a developing system from this wave within 72 hours. I also notice that NHC have mentioned this in their latest outlook (5:30pm, 25-07-00). I still hold to my beleif we will have a named storm by the end of july, or at least a developing TD.
Models (#7)
Posted by: Mike C. [CFHC] (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 07:43PM 25-Jul-2000 with id (RTNRNUSNVY*)

The models, especially the AVN are indeed interesting. But this is on the far end of the forecast timewise. I said this yesterday for another system, but if it still looks this way tomorrow, then yes it is pretty likely. IMHO. If not... :)

hurricane activity (#8)
Posted by: Rick Shade Location: Mobile, Al
Posted On 09:11PM 25-Jul-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNUW*)

I think the thing to monitor this year is the water temperatures. Here in Mobile, we have been breaking records with the heat. If a storm develops in the Gulf of Mexico...and lingers.....we could be in for a real ride. Camille did that. It stalled in the Gulf in the middle of August...hottest month of the year. So any freak weather anomaly would surprise everyone. I read too, that much like last year....the east cosst...particularly around South Carolina...is a prime area. Now though I am not a meteorological genius...I can't believe they can really read weather patterns and have any sense of prediction about where the storms might hit. To me.....its a crap shoot. No way of predicting that...no way......
Mike Anderson (#9)
Posted by: Bob Location: Sanford, FL
Posted On 10:10PM 25-Jul-2000 with id (RTNQVUNRRYNRV*)

Where is Mike Anderson? I would to see his prediction.
Predictions. (#10)
Posted by: Mike C. [CFHC] (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 06:45AM 26-Jul-2000 with id (RTNRNUSNVY*)

This morning it looks like those systems won't form. Some of these models aren't too trustworthy with storm development on the far (read furthest into the future) predictions.

I'm still holding for no named storms in July.
- Mike C.

I don't know what's going on with Mike Anderson's page, BTW. Hopefully he'll let us know some way.

Storm history to date this year (#11)
Posted by: Bill Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 01:20PM 26-Jul-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Hi everyone-

Still looks like the wave off Africa may come together. There are some potentially interesting developments east of Florida too.

Everyone, when talking about this year vs. last year, seems to forget we have had TWO tropical systems (tropical depressions 1 and 2) so far this year ,as opposed to one td that became a storm last year (Arlene). The comments about nothing happening after Arlene until August 18 are valid, and I see that the season this year will probably be a lot like last in terms of timing, but I just wanted to point out that we are 'ahead' of last year.

I find it quite likely in post analysis that at least one of the TDs this year will be reclassified as a TS...which would definitely make this year very similar to last year, to date...with the freak far east (for June) depression to boot.

As Accuweather is saying, the Atlantic is opening for business. Look how quickly it got busy with multiple storms last year all at once!

By the end of July, hmmm, I still won't rule that our until Friday. if 'nothing' is happening then, it'll be August. But I still think earlier than last year, and maybe in an unexpected (as opposed to off Africa) location.

Right now I'd say off Africa or east of Fl/SE coast for a July storm.

Enough ruminations! Thanks to you all for your comments, this is great. And thanks to the C brothers for this forum/site.

IHS,

Bill
Interesting link! (#12)
Posted by: Bill Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 01:52PM 26-Jul-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

I think everyone will find this link that analyzes the correlation between season start dates and activities to be of interest.

FYI! As you can see there is no real correlation to a late start and number of storms.

IHS,

Bill
Tropical Development (#13)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 02:37PM 26-Jul-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSSNRQT*)

As of 2pm today there are signs of a slight circulation near 11n-22w and pressures are low in this area so this may be the begining of our first development of the year. Waters are at the magical 80 just west of this area so I do believe we will have a depression over the next 48 hours or so.
11N (#14)
Posted by: STeve H.
Posted On 03:48PM 26-Jul-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

I tend to agree mark. the latest loops are showing signs of ciculation....we'll see.. but I think we've got one (I've said that before)! cheers
Link (#15)
Posted by: Bill Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 04:20PM 26-Jul-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Oops! Left this out. This link explores the relationship between first storm and numbers of storm..and basically demonstrates there is no relationship...even a 'late' starting season can have numerous storms.

IHS,

Bill

http://stormcarib.com/climatology/first1886.htm
Hmm (#16)
Posted by: Mike C. [CFHC] (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 05:15PM 26-Jul-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)

The fact that the discussion mentions a low level circulation around the low in the East Atlantic, and that the MRF is once again "predicting" something. Should be right on time for me to be out of town. (If it does happen)

I'm still going to wait a bit more, though, before claiming that it will form.
models (#17)
Posted by: alan Location: orlando
Posted On 10:24AM 27-Jul-2000 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNTT*)

Take a look at the MRF models. The last run shows a weak hurricane or strong tropical storm just northeast of Puerto Rico on their 144 hour forecast.
Of course, the MRF is the only one showing it and the MRF is usually not the best in forecasting, but it certainly gives a hint that this storm could develop. There hasn't been a hint like this for most of the season.
Bogus Storms and MRF (#18)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 10:44AM 27-Jul-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)

I think what Alan's talking about is this. MRF run (Another View) Which basically shows a storm forming from the current area of discussion and moving west toward just north of the Caribbean islands, winding NE of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in 144 Hours (6 days). The MRF isn't too good with storms that far out in advance, but from what I've heard, the MRF model was recently improved in order to reduce the "phantom" or bogus storm.


This may be very well the first storm of the season, and trusting the MRF, it would be a large one by the time it got North of the Caribbean in 6 days or so. THIS storm is the one to watch. Will it form into a named storm before the month is out? It has a chance. But this is by far the most promising system I have seen yet so far this year.



Thanks, Alan, for pointing this out.


Another reason I'm thinking its not another bogus storm is that the models have wanted to form something out of the mess out there now for the last few days, but couldn't agree with when and where. Again, persistence is the key, if this continues to look like it does (with the models) then it could form.


I'm definitely doing a main page update around noon or so on this one after some more info comes in.


- Mike
Messes in the Atlantic (#19)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 12:13PM 27-Jul-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Too much confusion out there, and numerous low-level circulations are impeding development right now. The mess in the East has what appear to be at least two distinct circulations, one near 14 N just SW of the Cape Verdes and another near 11N further SW....still another that looked good earlier towards 35W and S of 10 N. One wonders whether they are inhibiting each other at present, particularly the ones further east. Like I posted last night, I believe we'll get a storm out of this mess, but I figured (after viewing the 3Z loop last night) that we'd have a TD today sometime. That's still possible, but certainly less likely...maybe a couple of days away. There is also multiple circulations east of the Bahamas, both upper and lower level. AThis area too should be watched, as well as the Bay of Campeche...but that area will probably head WNW. Interesting how the Tropical weather outlook is not taking notice of these features. Cheers
Tropical Wave (#20)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 12:43PM 27-Jul-2000 with id (QRNWWNQTUNQUX*)

This mourning I have had the time to really look at whats going on in the eastern atlantic. This area of thunderstorms is quite large and has many mid level circulations within it. I do not see any low level circulation at all. The other is that water temp. underneath this wave is still around 80 degrees. This is what I feel is holding back development the most. I still feel we will see something form but I believe it will wait now until it gets past 40 degrees west in about 48 hours. Temp. at 40 degrees jump to 82 degrees which is what I feel we need for developement. Long range gets interesting as well as it looks right now that we may have a more westerly moving storm down the road due to a strong high from the central atlantic to the east coast holding and even moving a bit more west in time over the next 10 days. True its long range but isn't what this all about. Well lets wait and see but I see interesting weather over the next 2 weeks.....
Update (#21)
Posted by: Mike C. [CFHC] (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 02:54PM 27-Jul-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)

I'm still looking over things as I have time, so no updates on the main site until later tonight. I'm holding off for the 5PM Outlook update before making more comments. The nogaps model still really isn't picking this one up.


Nothin' still (#22)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 03:28PM 27-Jul-2000 with id (QUWNQRWNQRTNQTQ*)

Wave is looking tired again in the E. Atlantic, even the NRL dropped it from the Invest page. Still I think something will develop there over time. Bay of Campeche looks interesting too. cheers
Its coming? (#23)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: England, UK
Posted On 05:49PM 27-Jul-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNQXTNQPP*)

Well the weather is definitely getting to look interesting... i even see that NHC acknowledge a few areas exist in their latest (5.30pm)outlook. Well i too have viewed the MRF model and see that it shows a system developing in the Atlantic and heading west to wards the NE Caribbean... and the AVN, NOGAPS, and UKMET models all indicate something in their Surface Level Pressure predictions. But has anyone noticed how the AVN and NOGAPS 850mb Vorticity maps indicate something flaring up in the SE Caribbean within the next 48-72 hours? I notice the MRF model picks this up at around the 72 hour period and takes the system over Jamaica and to the south of Cuba. Just something else that bears watching. But i do feel that with all this activity predicted something has to develop... and i still wonder as to whether we will have a storm by the end of this month!
test (#24)
Posted by: test
Posted On 07:28PM 04-Aug-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSR*)

test
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