CFHC Talkback For News Story #32:
Newest Talkback: 11:29 PM 08-03 EDT

One more day in July
07:38 PM EDT - 30 July 2000

July coming to an end, no named storms. Thanks to all 180+ voters who participated in the survey (The Rest of July). The Atlantic is starting to fire-up, I think we are in for a busy August and September. Let’s start hearing those predictions for August in the comments section. I have not had time to study any of the models yet, so I will leave the predictions up to you all.
Although we do not monitor the Pacific, I would like to mention that hurricane Daniel has been downgraded to a tropical storm and that a tropical storm warning remains in effect of the islands of Maui County and for the Island of Hawaii and is issued for the Oahu including the city of Honolulu. Effective at 11am hst.

satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Comments? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

- [jc]

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Displaying Talkbacks #7 - #9 (of 24 total)
Tropical Development (#7)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 07:11AM 01-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSTNQY*)

Hello All,
Well things have calm down this mourning over the Atlantic but we still have a coule of areas being watched. The first is the swirl ow circulation 14n...49w...for the first time we have a bit of convection near the center which makes be believe waters are warming up underneath it. The only thing wrong is it is running into a dry air mass and northerly shear over the next 24-48 hours so development is not likely for at least 48-72 hours. The other has just come off Africa but waters are too cool for development north of 12 degrees so if this system has any chance it must stay below 12 north or wait until it gets near the carribean in 3-4 days. So right now I don't see development for the next 48-72 hours at best. I know we all are looking forward to our first storm even myself but its just not in the cards yet and if you look over Africa there are some impressive areas of thunderstorms heading for the atlantic and I do believe we will see something over the next couple of weeks.
2 Lows, maybe a 3rd soon? (#8)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 01:52PM 01-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSSNQR*)

Well there are now two tropical waves in the atlantic, both of which are supporting a low pressure area.
The first one along 45'W has maintained identity for a number of days now, and convection continues to occur close to the centre of the low. It continues to move into more favourable environment and may develop in 24-48 hours.
The wave behind it also supports a 1012mb, and this wave is accompanied by more stronger convection, it too may develop shortly.

However the 3rd possible low is centred south of Yucatan. And i notice NHC have said this system has become better organised. However it will soon be moving over the Yucatan so development over the next 48 hours will be limited. Despite this it will move into the Gulf of Mexico where SST's are high... and you may remember a couple of days ago i said this may happen.. lets keep watching all three of these areas.
Atlantic Low (#9)
Posted by: Richard B (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 04:00PM 01-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNTVNQVV*)

Well i have just looked at the latest Atlantic imagery and i see that the wave and low acroos 36'W are holding together nicely. There is a most clear cyclonic circulation within the low level clouds around the low, and there is isolated convection to the south of the system. I dont see any immediate development but as this system moves towards the west past 40'W it will encounter warmer SST's, these could encourage the system to develop.
The low to the east of the Caribbean has potential to develop too, however it is located in a drier air mass and this may be quelling the convection... it will be a while before this system develops if it is going to develop at all.

And the disturbed weather near Yucatan continues to become better organised... this area will bear watching when it enters the Gulf in the next few days.
models (#10)
Posted by: alan Location: orlando
Posted On 10:35AM 02-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNTT*)

Nothing like wave mongering waiting for the first storm.
Looking at the new models, the AVN and MRF are both trying to kick something up again. In the 60 hour run of the MRF, there is what looks like a tropical storm ENE of the islands. Further runs were not done yet.
The AVN shows the same system at the same place on its 72 hour run.
Of course, those were the models that said we would have a tropical storm in the gulf and a hurricane north of Puerto Rico today. Obviously that didn't happen and neither model is forecasting something out of the long-running swirl or the disturbance over the Yucatan.

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