08:55 PM EDT - 05 August 2000
Midnight Update: The 11PM position moved is a bit further south than I predicted, therefore the "variations" I mentioned favor a more westward track over warmer waters. Therefore folks in the East Caribbean may want to really watch this one over the next few days. Chances are that it still will pass safely to the north. However, vigilance will remain important. Tomorrow and Monday should give us a better idea.
Hurricane Alberto has formed in the east Atlantic. Similar to what I said this morning, Alberto waned a bit then restrengthened. And tonight we have the first Hurricane of the season.
The area southeast of Bermuda is looking less favorable now, but still is worth watching. However, the area in the western Caribbean is starting to look very good. Folks in the Gulf will want to watch this one for a bit.
Future of Alberto...
My thoughts, are that the system will continue to go west (and very slightly north of due west) for a while. Then the question seems to be will the ridge be strong enough to keep it going west later, or will a weakness arrive to kick it north and to a less likely track away from land. Although I tend to favor the second option, I can't rule out the first at all.
It's just too soon to tell. Therefore, it will remain on the watch list. At this point in the game even small variations north and south can impact later landfall chances.
Alberto... where will you go? Comments? Use the comment button by the story Headline.Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)
Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)