CFHC Talkback For News Story #37:
Newest Talkback: 04:41 PM 08-06 EDT

Hurricane Alberto
08:55 PM EDT - 05 August 2000

Midnight Update: The 11PM position moved is a bit further south than I predicted, therefore the "variations" I mentioned favor a more westward track over warmer waters. Therefore folks in the East Caribbean may want to really watch this one over the next few days. Chances are that it still will pass safely to the north. However, vigilance will remain important. Tomorrow and Monday should give us a better idea.

Original Update:

Hurricane Alberto has formed in the east Atlantic. Similar to what I said this morning, Alberto waned a bit then restrengthened. And tonight we have the first Hurricane of the season.

The area southeast of Bermuda is looking less favorable now, but still is worth watching. However, the area in the western Caribbean is starting to look very good. Folks in the Gulf will want to watch this one for a bit.

Future of Alberto...

My thoughts, are that the system will continue to go west (and very slightly north of due west) for a while. Then the question seems to be will the ridge be strong enough to keep it going west later, or will a weakness arrive to kick it north and to a less likely track away from land. Although I tend to favor the second option, I can't rule out the first at all.

It's just too soon to tell. Therefore, it will remain on the watch list. At this point in the game even small variations north and south can impact later landfall chances.

Alberto... where will you go? Comments? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #12 (of 12 total)

alberto,and carribean (#1)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 09:39PM 05-Aug-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXWNQYV*)

On a brief note on Alberto,,,his wind axis is tight and moving into the ridge to its NW. I expect a general increase in forward speed near 15-20mph for the next 72 hours west. Location by Tuesday morning should be near 15.8 and 52.5 w. Intensity should start over monday night and might be over 100mph by tuesday morning.
The next system entering the scene is a larger system that should be watched in the Gulf and up the east coast. Beryl is expect to form by monday and it should be near the Yucitan by Monday night. Steering currents as of now bring it into the gulf as of tuesday evening and have it as a strong TS. after that a trough might come down and bring it more north,, and it should be a hurricane by mid week making this is speculation since it is in the formation stage and where it comes off the yucitan will determine the gulf path,,,,everyone keep a more closer I on this. scottsvb
please check out this site for more discussions

Scott (#2)
Posted by:
Mike Cornelius [CFHC] ( Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 12:11AM 06-Aug-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSR*)

FYI you can place your website URL in the "URL" field on the comment and it will show up as clickable.

It should be interesting to watch the West Caribbean area, I agree.

Will we have Beryl soon? (#3)
Posted by:
Richard B ( Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 06:45AM 06-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSRNRSS*)

Well Alberto is continuig to slowly intensify. As i said before the main inhibiting factor is the cool SST's. However he should move over warmer SST's within the next day or two, and then i think we could see some pretty strong intensification as he gradually heads west or slightly north of due west, towards the northeastern Caribbean. All folks in the northeast Caribbean, and the Bahamas might want to watch this system very closely.
Meanwhile folks in the western Caribbean, and more espacially around the Gulf Coast might want to watch the wave in the western Caribbean closely. Intense convection is flaring up within this wave, and a low could form over the Yucatan along the northern edge of this wave. With such warm SST's in the gulf, should the low form and head into the gulf then further development would be possible. However at the moment this is speculation. Watch the area over the next day or two though!
And has anyone noticed the convection associated with the wave a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles? It has really exploded, IR shows a few red areas, some intense convection. However upper level winds are not all that favourable for development, even though i think we need to watch this one closely as it heads west.... might develop slowly over the next few days.
And finally that low to the south of Bermuda.... NHC say it is dissipating, event though Central pressure has dropped 3mb to 1119mb. Convection is still around the low, but not tight around the centre. It looks more like a sub-tropical system than a tropical. However i will still watch this area with interest because it may still surprise us all!
Take care.

Jus an update on the Bermuda low (#4)
Posted by:
Richard B ( Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 07:49AM 06-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSRNRSS*)

Well considering the low southeast of bermuda is supposed to be dissipating convection has increased once again this morning. There is an indication that the convection is banding, especially around the northern periphapry of the low. There is also an area of convection southwest of the low which has increased today too. And the wave to the east of the Lesser Antilles looks like it may be splitting, with the northern area of the wave and associated convection heading towards the Bermuda low. If these two converge then things may get interesting. Even if they dont i think that this Bermuda low is unlikely to dissipate, but as it heads into a more favourable environment i think it may well develop.
It does look more interetsing and i will continue to monitor this area.

Low SE of Bermuda (#5)
Posted by: Bill Location: Tallahassee,FL
Posted On 08:51AM 06-Aug-2000 with id (SXNSWNWSNQXW*)

Good morning,

I find it interesting that Richard and I think and say almost the same things about the tropical situation. I agree with his previous post. However, I'm not sure a system is going to develop in the NW Caribbean.

But, I just looked at the latest satellite picture. Maybe we should be looking at the NW Caribbean after all!

Alberto (#6)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:39AM 06-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNRV*)

I just finished looking at the sat pics from Alberto, and I am very impressed with the way he is looking. Very good banding features, good outflow also. I haven't even BEGUN to check on NW Caribbean. Busy week ahead of us, don't you think?


Update (#7)
Posted by:
Richard B ( Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 10:58AM 06-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNTPNRPV*)

Well the activity in the NW Caribbean is still interesting. Convection has increased and there appears to be some cyclonic curvature in the convection, this is especially evident on the visible imagery. It looks like it may be getting better organised, yet NHC say in their latest (5:30am) outlook that there are no signs of development. We will have to wait and see what they say later, but it looks promising.
And my old favourite, the low to the south of Bermuda, is still holding. It has been around for days now, and convection has fluctuated. However it has really flared up again this morning, and appears to be forming closer to the low than it has done. Perhaps there is less shear now. It looks like the convection is to the north and west of the system at this time. With a more favourable environment i think this system still has a chance, especially should it converge with the northern portion of the wave to the east of the Lesser Antilles.
I think we will be kept busy with all these areas, and not forgetting Alberto. Now he is heading west, and we will have to wait and see where he ends up going!

Carribbean (#8)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:29AM 06-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQWW*)

Looks like we could have Beryl in the near future. The updated forecast 11:30am is now saying development is possible and from listening to Dr. Lyons, he is MORE concerned with this area than he seems to be with Alberto. Wow...what a busy week!!!!

Caribbean System (#9)
Posted by:
Richard B ( Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 03:41PM 06-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSVNQRV*)

Well the satellite imagery continues to show the wave in the western Caribbean getting better organised. Convection conitues around the east and south of what appears to be a 'centre' just off the coast of Honduras/Nicaragua. NHC say some development is possible with this system, and i agree with them. I beleive this system may become more of a concern than Alberto, mainly because it is much closer to land areas. We will have to watch it closely.

NE/NW Caribbean (#10)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 03:48PM 06-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNWS*)

I think we have a busy week ahead of us....I love the way I don't have to type in all my info anymore...that's a great feature guys!!! Thanks!!!

BUSY!!!!! (#11)
Posted by:
Richard B ( Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 04:36PM 06-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNTRNQSY*)

Well i dont know which system to look at first. Alberto is holding well but to be honest i am not concerned with him at the moment.
However i am concerned about 3 other systems.
1) The old Bermuda low. This system is still active but is now beginning to head northward. This would take the system into a less favourable environment. If nothing develops from this system within 24-36 hours i dont think it will develop at all.
2) The activity in the northwest Caribbean. It continues to look impressive on both visible and IR imagery with convection around the eastern semi-circle of what would appear to be the centre, located just off the coast of Honduras/Nicaragua. This system is expected to head northwest ward and with good SST's and some organisation becomming evident it looks like this one could develop more.
3) The wave to the eastnortheast of the Caribbean. I understand that there may be a low associated with this system and that surface winds have increased to around 25 knots, and pressure has begun to drop in the area too. There are signs the system is also getting to be better organised, and it to may well develop into a tropical depression within around 24 hours. As Colleen says i think we are going to be kept very busy!! Lets keep a close eye on all these sytems.
Take care.

links? (#12)
Posted by:
troy Location: titusville,fl
Posted On 04:41PM 06-Aug-2000 with id (VSNRTNQQSNRSP*)

Hello, i was wondering if any of you fine folks have good links to the different models. I had them all bookmarked but seem to have lost them.
Richard i guess the ones you are using along with the ip for the images would be much abliged....


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