CFHC Talkback For News Story #39:
Newest Talkback: 07:07 AM 08-08 EDT

Interesting Features
07:14 AM EDT - 07 August 2000

Hurricane Alberto is moving a bit west now, however, it still is heading generally toward the north. It looks like a "fish storm". The one catch here, however, is that it may miss the early turn (in fact the NHC suggests it has). So it still has a little chance (<10%) to move further west.

The most interesting feature this morning is the area almost north of Puerto Rico, which is heading West Northwest. This is the closest to Florida and should be closely watched for development. This will have our attention until it makes its move one way or another.

The area itself is still fairly unorganized, but it has remained persistent. The low-pressure area to the north of that will make interactions between the two interesting watching.

We will continue to watch it.

The area in the West Caribbean looks like it will head over the Yucatan, and has a chance to later emerge in the Gulf. So it still bears watching. This morning it isn't looking as good as it did yesterday.

Comments? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

- [mac]

Show All Comments

Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #16 (of 16 total)

Its me again! (#1)
Posted by:
Richard B ( Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 08:04AM 07-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNQWRNSR*)

well i agree with you Mike, although it is possible that Alberto may miss the turn i feel that it is likely he will turn northwest then north by about 72 hours, and i still think he will spare the Caribbean Islands. But after that it will be interesting to see where he goes.
I too am interested in the system to the north of the Lesser Antilles. It has a good circulation ,and a low is situated within the convection. The convection has become stronger this morning and shows signs that it may be organising. I wonder whether it may interact with the low and convection to the south or Bermuda? We will have to wait and see. In the meantime it would not surprise me to see a Tropical Depression form from this system within the next 24-36 hours. I think those in the Bahamas, and those of you in Florida may want to watch this area closely, especially if it develops further.
I am also watching the wave and associated convection that is loacted just off Yucatan. It is less organised than it was yesterday, but once over Yucatan and into the Gulf it will encounter more favourable conditions. SST's in the gulf are around 28'C-30'C, so this will encourage the convection to flare up. I think this system will be a potential threat to anyone along the gulf coast. We will have to watch this area very closely.
Take care.

lows (#2)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 10:01AM 07-Aug-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

The two lows in the NE caribbean look like they are currently cancelling (negating ) each other dfrom development. If this continues nothing will develop. Right now, the old Bermuda low looks more impressive than the NE Caribbean System, and may just take the energy and threat ou to sea! I haven't had a lot of time to look at data, but The NE Carib area looked better earlier. Someone set me straight on this! b I could be reading this completely wrong but that's what my eyes are telling me.

Alberto missing trough moving due West? (#3)
Posted by: Cycloman
Posted On 10:41AM 07-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNTY*)

Thats what it looks like according to the latest loop!!!

That Bermuda low (#4)
Posted by:
Richard B ( Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 12:07PM 07-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSRNQQY*)

Well it has been around for days but the Bermuda Low (or rather the low located to the southwest of Bermuda), finally looks promising. I have been talking about this low since it broke from a stationary front 600 miles to the north of Bermuda last week. Today convection has become better organised and instead of heading north the forecasst takes it west, over warm SST's. It would not surprise me to see development of this low in the next 24 hours. NHC also say that it may become better organised.
The area to the north of the Lesser Antilles is also still looking good, but i think it may now develop slower than i originally thought, in part due to the Bermuda system. However all interest should watch this area closely, and i will maintain the Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert on this system on my site for now, although i may review this later this evening.
At the moment i am not too concerned with the wave in the nw Caribbean, as it is interacting with land. However when it enters the Gulf of Mexico in a couple of days it will bear watching closely.
And finally Alberto. He still heads towards the NE Caribbean islands and the models differ greatly on his forecast track. I have therefore initiated an 'Extended Watch' on my site for some of the islands.
I will be monitoring all these systems closely.
In the meantime take care.

Posted by: scottsvb (
Posted On 01:23PM 07-Aug-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXUNQXQ*)

on just a brief note here,,,,I've been looking at all the data today and it is true that Alberto might miss the trough,,i see a west then NW then back tho the west late in the period,,things will be interesting enough on the quick turns he will make due to the trough,,but i do feel the carribean should be spared as of now.

Elswhere the only system of note is the western carribean,,,with a 1007mb low n of Honduras it should enter the Yucitan overnight and emerge into the gulf Tuesday evening. I still say this
is a system to watch more right now,,but if it doesn't develop quick enough,it should move into Mexico near Tampico,,but if it has time to devop,,it might turn north or right now who knows,since another trough should be entering the southern and se US. scottsvb

Tropical Development (#6)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 02:03PM 07-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSSNQUV*)

Hello All,
Well the atlantic is becomming active while Alberto moves westward in the short term. I'll start from the west and move east. The first is the wave over the NW carribean which is moving over land as we speak but as it exits over the southwest Gulf we may see some development. Upper air is favorable and waters are well into the 80's the only thing it wont have is alot of room so if development is to occur it must occur rapidly and there is a chance it will so we must watch closely...The chance of development is 50%
The next area is just east of the Bahama's. This area has been very persistant and upper air is favorable while waters are in the low 80's so for all purposes it has a chance. The forcast looks like it will continue moving westward over time but I don't believe development will be immediate. As for 48 hours down the road it has a chance....
The area north of Purto Rico continues moving west but it showing no signs of better development. It is going thru some shear right now so I don't see much over the next 24 hours. There is a chance after 24 hours as it enters less shear. Everyone in Florida and the Bahama's need to watch both of these systems closely over the next few days. The possibility of one of these systems developing is better than 60%.
Alberto continues moving westward but is showing signs of the trough to its northwest influncing its shape. A more southeast to northwest shape is starting to develope. This could be the first sign of changing coarse to a more nw component. I am still not convinced of a nw-n coarse over time. I do see a change to the northwest but I don't agree to a northward turn in the long term. I see a more westward track over time. As for strength it is now moving into warmer waters and upper air conditions are strong enough to allow slow strengthing to continue in the short term. After 36 hours strengthening could occur more rapidly. I believe we could see a Cat#3 storm in the 72-96 hour time frame but I'll hold this to only a 40% chance right now.
I see nothing else to concern with right now.. I do see major waves developing over Africa so long term forecast is looking good.

bermuda/pr lows (#7)
Posted by:
alan Location: orlando
Posted On 02:12PM 07-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

What are the chances of the two lows merging together to form one low or will they both kill each other?
I know that some hurricanes are killed off by a stronger one, could that happen here?
Although the NHC signaled out the Bermuda low in it's outlook, the PR low is looking much better today, with convention forming almost due east of the Bermuda low.

Swirl (#8)
Posted by: Duncan Mitre Location: Winter Park, FL
Posted On 03:39PM 07-Aug-2000 with id (RPWNSPNWTNQUV*)

That cloud area east of the bahamas and Florida sure looks like a counterclockwise circulation to me on the visual pic. You sure this won't develop?

No one is sure! (#9)
Posted by: Bob H Location: Sanford, FL
Posted On 03:53PM 07-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRPQNQSX*)

Duncan no one is sure of anything just keep that in mind. I say the swirl east of bahamas has a chance to develop but it may be taken over by the larger disturbance south of it sucking out all the moisture. This is the one we all need to watch it may develop at the last minute before making landfall.

Beryl???? (#10)
Posted by:
Richard B ( Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 06:00PM 07-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNQXUNVQ*)

Well in my opinion we will see Beryl soon! I think she will develop from either the system north of the Lesser Antilles, or from the system that is currently over the Yucatan.
The system to the north of the Lesser Antilles / Puerto Rico looks very impressive on both visible and ir imagery. Convection has become much better organised and concentrated, with some distinct banding feature evident on both visible and ir satellite imagery. This area may develop very soon, if it was not for some wind shear. This should ease soon however, and then i think we will need to watch this area extremely closely for development. Those in the Bahamas, and Florida should pay very close attention to this system.
The second system is currently inland over Yucatan, and just beginning to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico. Convection has become better organised over the past few hours, and is intense over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. This system should enter into the Gulf within the next 12 - 24 hours. NHC forecast a low to be in the Bay of Campeche within the next 24 hours, and they are forecasting a minimum central pressure of 1008mb, deep enough for a tropical depression, if not a tropical storm. And with such organised and intense convection, development with this system is unlikely to be slow, especially considering SSt's are high.
Both of these systems have the potential to develop, and i would not be surprised if we had our 2nd, maybe even our 3rd, named storm of the season.
Incidently i am continuing the Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for the system north of the Lesser Antilles / Puerto Rico. I may consider issuing one also for the system over Yucatan, within the next 12 - 24 hours.
We will need to watch these areas very closely.
Take care for now.

Excellent (#11)
Posted by:
Posted On 09:12PM 07-Aug-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRUNY*)

This is a good web page you should tell CNN, Home Depot, etc. about it and make some money.

chat (#12)
Posted by:
Posted On 09:13PM 07-Aug-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRUNY*)

How does one chat on the system

web master (#13)
Posted by:
Posted On 09:15PM 07-Aug-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRUNY*)

Is the Web master on line?

Click on live chat (#14)
Posted by:
John ( Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 09:31PM 07-Aug-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSR*)

On the left navigation menu, click on "Live Chat"

Tropical Development (#15)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 06:31AM 08-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNQTUNQSS*)

Hello All,
Well lets start from the west and move east..
The tropical wave over the Yucatan this mourning is showing signs of development even while over land. I do see some possibility we could have a TD over the next 24 hours(75%) the one thing holding me back is it may be too close to land to really get going but well see exactly where it forms.
The next is east of the Turks and Cacos islands. There was signs yesterday of possible development but I found upper level winds are still not condusive for development. I do believe we may see something still from this wave as it approaches Florida in 36-48 hours but nothing major at this time is expected.
The third is Hurricane Alberto. I said yesterday I did not believe Alberto would turn nw-n in time but instead turn more westward in time and that is more likely now than last night.. Alberto has missed the trough and should resume a west track by last today. People in the U.S. Virgin islands and Purto Rico should continue to watch Alberto because Alberto should start to strengthen again in about 18 hours or so. I would also add that people in the Bahama's should start to monitor this system as well.. Long range forecasts are bringing Alberto towards the Bahama's in 4-6 days as a Cat#2 storm.
The last is tropical waves comming off of Africa. Some models have tried to develope a TD south of the Cape Verde Islands in 36 hours. Will see...
Right now people in the Gulf of Mexico and southeast U.S. need to start watching over the next few days more closely on development and track information.

Action! (#16)
Posted by:
Richard B ( Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 07:07AM 08-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNQXPNTT*)

As i have said all along Alberto would fail to make the northerly turn. And so he has, with NHC saying that it is likely to remain on a weterly or northwesterly track ovewr the next 36-48 hours, before making a more westerly turn once again. I know the system is currently weakening but in 24 hours the system will enter warmer SST's, and an area of less wind shear. Of note is how the storm has spent much of its life over marginal SST's yet has managed to attain and maintain hurricane intensity. I think we could see some rapid intensification after 24 hours. I am maintaining the extended watch for the north eastern Caribbean, and may extend it to include Puerto Rico, Turks and Caicos, and parts of the Bahamas depending on the hurricanes course over the next day. With the change in the forecast track all in the northeast Caribbean, Bahamas, Puerto Rico, and Turks and Caicos should watch this system very very closely. In 72 hours the centre of the hurricane is forecast to be just north and east of of the Lesser Antilles. We must now watch Alberto closely.
I also think the area east of the Bahamas need watching closely. It has not become any better organised but the bermuda low has become much less organised so the system to the east of the bahamas may now stand a better chance of development. We will have to wait and see. It may not develop much before reaching the Florida coast, perhaps a depression, perhaps a weak tropical storm. However should it maintain identity and end up in the Gulf of Mexico then we will need to watch the system closely.
And finally the Yucatan low. It remains extremely well organised, and i can see a depression forming when it enters the Gulf of Mexico, and with such high SST's it could develop rapidly. Person along the Mexican Gulf Coast, and the Texas coast should watch this area closely!
Very busy, and we could see some action soon!
In the meantime take care.

Show All Comments

Return to Central Florida Hurricane Center Main Page