CFHC Talkback For News Story #41:
Newest Talkback: 09:31 PM 06-09 EDT

More Predictions Wave
08:30 AM EDT - 07 June 2001

Dr Gray and his team at Colorado State University has updated his forecast to include two more (12 total) named storms. One of these has already occured. He's added one more hurricane and one more major Hurricane. This is due to factors such as colder than expected Pacific temperatures (La Nada), and more.

Tropical Cyclone Forecast
Colorado State University / Dr. William Gray
Mean Average
Year

07-June-2001
Forecast

Named Tropical Storms and Hurricanes 9.3 12
Named Storm Days 46.9 60
Hurricanes 5.8 7
Hurricane Days 23.7 30
Intense Hurricanes (Cat 3+) 2.2 3
Intense Hurricane Days 4.7 5


Joe Bastardi's Hurricane Predictions are finally up.

Allison is hanging around in its former area and may drift southward. There is a small chance that it could actually redevelop if it gets back over the Gulf. *small chance*, but I'm mentioning it because it even forming was interesting to me in the first place.

A few other waves in the Central Atlantic are there, and they are strong for this time of. Climatology suggests they will not form, and that's what I think. However, as they slide into the Caribbean they will have to be watched. Allison has sparked a major resurgence of justified wave mongering. The spark, if you will. An interesting June for once. Steve H. made a very good comment on the previous article that may have to be taken into account. The next few days will be telling of that.


NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


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Displaying Talkbacks #11 - #15 (of 26 total)

off texas (#11)
Posted by: matt
Posted On 03:15PM 08-Jun-2001 with id (SXNSQNQTYNQUQ*)


i just looked at the latest military sat pics of the gom what is off the tx coast it looks like circulation in the water... or is that just a feeder band?

NO (#12)
Posted by: scottsvb (
http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER) Location: tampa
Posted On 09:26PM 08-Jun-2001 with id (QRNWWNQTQNRPW*)


No more development with Allison. Its been
over.Nothing real interesting till next week
at the least.

back from the dead? (#13)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 12:24AM 09-Jun-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNQQX*)


dont write allison off just yet. the low center has crossed south of i-10 again, and is only about fifty miles from the coast.. whereas it was 150 miles inland up near lufkin and nacogdoches about 48 hours ago. the convection near the immediate center has died away (a good 'feeder band' is dousing the houston area right now), but if it crosses back into the ocean, down at port lavaca on matagorda bay should it hold it's present southerly course... it could then very well redevelop a cdo and reintensify. we've all seen stranger things happen. the remnant low should meander around coastal texas and kick off diurnal convection for the next few days, at very least. twc and the plurality of models have a trough clearing the area of precip by.. well, next wednesday. 'lot could happen between now and then.

bouys (#14)
Posted by: matt
Posted On 11:37AM 09-Jun-2001 with id (SXNSQNQTYNQTX*)


take a look a the bouy data in the western gulf... the winds have steadily incrased since yesterday.

allison close to regeneration (#15)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 11:42AM 09-Jun-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNXT*)


the 9am disturbance statement says that the nhc will pick up advisories again should allison move back out over water. right now the center is very near palacios, about ten northeast of port lavaca. eh, i was close. i'm guessing that the low center will get its feet wet by 1pm central. what's interesting is that some convection is sparking near the low center again. might be the start of a new lease on life for allison. none of the models are initializing a healthy low on the texas coast, so the future behavior of a new allison is pretty vague. probably just keep drifting around.

Maybe? (#16)
Posted by:
Rick Davis (http://www.flhurricane.com/rad/) Location: St. Petersburg FL
Posted On 11:43AM 09-Jun-2001 with id (RTNYRNQYSNWR*)


I dunno , But looks to me as if it is moving back out over the Gulf ??


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