CFHC Talkback For News Story #43:
Newest Talkback: 10:15 PM 06-13 EDT

Allison Regenerating in Atlantic?
12:39 PM EDT - 12 June 2001

Not likely.

Allison regenerating in the Atlantic was a possibility, but it won't happen this time. It has stuck together even over land because of its hybrid storm nature. Even if it did, it would move out and away. Still an amazing tale for this horribly destructive flooding tropical storm.

Other than this possiblity there isn't much going on in the tropics now, which is how we like it.


NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #20 (of 20 total)
My Op (#1)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 01:16PM 12-Jun-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQVQ*)

I think the chance of Allison regenerating in the Atlantic is very slim. On its present track, it would only be in favorably warm waters for a short time (if it held together after 3 days over land, no less). I doubt atmospheric conditions would be particularly favorable, either. However, I wouldn't discount the possibility of Allison becoming an Atlantic gale.
doubt another regen (#2)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 02:22PM 12-Jun-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNQQT*)

allison is bearing more to the northeast than before, and the waters off the north carolina coast arent all that warm yet, maybe just scraping the threshhold. the low center is around macon now, probably going to pass just north of augusta this evening, maybe drop an inch or two of rain here. a real bother, it's been so dry that there were practically no mosquitoes here a month ago. now they blacken the skies. if the low were going to move offshore at charleston or even wilmington there might be a noteworthy chance, but i'm figuring it will be hatteras, elizabeth city, the like, late thursday or early friday.
by the way, whats the record lifespan for a june tropical system? allison has been with us for a solid week now in some capacity; getting up there.
no . (#3)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER) Location: tampa
Posted On 03:16PM 12-Jun-2001 with id (QRNWWNQTPNVU*)

nope it should fade out as it moves nne into mid
atlantic states and be a through of low pressure.
So say 5% chance.
Allison Updates (#4)
Posted by: John c. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL (Currently)
Posted On 05:20PM 12-Jun-2001 with id (RTNYUNRTPNQQV*)

Steve is in our Storm forum and posted updates from Allison. Click on the forum link to see.
a shadow of doubt (#5)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 01:26AM 13-Jun-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNYY*)

center of allison is very close to here now, maybe 30 miles sw of here. raining, east breeze, the lot. take a look at all the forecast models, theyre pretty divergent once allison reaches eastern nc. steering currents seem to weaken at that point. some are taking it offshore near wilmington.. should that verify allison would probably spin back up. anyway, the center is going to pass SOUTH of here, which i didnt expect.. and the hpc advisories talk about it holding its current ene path. until allison is still inland and past 35N, im not writing the system off.
Not Giving Up (#6)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 11:22AM 13-Jun-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNQSS*)

I still think it has a chance to spin back up
in a day or two. If it does form which way will
it go?
brickwall? (#7)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 11:33AM 13-Jun-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNQQX*)

some of the current model runs are casting doubt on whether the approaching trough will even grab allison. take a look at the 00z nogaps, it has to be the most interesting. allison just loiters off the coast into next week. theres a big ridge to the north building in to possibly block a northeastward offshore path, and the next trough isnt going to dig very far south... so this doesnt seem all that ridiculous. allison might brickwall against high pressure off the east coast, the westerlies very weak below the ridge. right now the center has moved to within just over 50 miles of the coast, near lake city/florence sc. looks like another allison stunt.
Ally? (#8)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, FL
Posted On 11:36AM 13-Jun-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNSX*)

Well...after looking at loop after loop after loop, I've noticed a distinct movement of Allison's center drifting East. At first I thought I was crazy, but after doing some research, even the NWS offices in SC, NC and especially VA are saying basically the same thing....Wakefield, VA says that "Allison's" being squeezed from the north and from the south..moving it on a more "eastward track".

Here's advice I always stick to..."Expect the Unexpected"....*smiles*
Expect the Unexpected (#9)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Orlando, FL (Currently)
Posted On 11:58AM 13-Jun-2001 with id (VVNRPNQQWNRRR*)

Really applies here, I may have written off Allison too soon. I'll wait until the evening to update, but I think this killer storm that won't die has a chance now.


Ok...Here's another question for anyone (#10)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, FL
Posted On 12:12PM 13-Jun-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNRS*)

Allison is just about to move off the coast of SC. If this DOES happen, and she does regenerate, since she's being squeezed from the north and the south, does anyone have an idea of where she will go? This is very interesting to me. Allison. The storm that won't die. *grins* (Didn't Alberto do this last year? Or was that another one?)

Colleen :-)
Allison Movement (#11)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 12:46PM 13-Jun-2001 with id (VTNRTTNQNUV*)

I'am trying to figure that one out colleen. But
by looking at the models they just don't move it
much or like HankFrank said it might just brickwall. This is becoming more and more intresting.
Well, I Guess We'll Just have to wait. (#12)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, FL
Posted On 12:58PM 13-Jun-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNSW*)

Maybe, if they do send out recon tomorrow, they will get a better fix on where she may or may not go....you're right...this is becoming very interesting...Colleen :-)
Allison Holds Together (#13)
Posted by: Mark Location: Ft Myers Fla
Posted On 02:34PM 13-Jun-2001 with id (QRNWWNQSSNRTP*)

Allison continues to look impressive on satellite pictures as it moves e-ne towards what I believe Wilmington, N.C. Waters off the coast are near 78-80 degrees so we could see regeneration into a TD or TS. Winds along the South Carolina coast has increased to 15-25 mph over the last few hours.. I have seen no new areas of rain yet along the coast so I'm not yet sure this will happen but it does need to be watched.
about Allison (#14)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 03:20PM 13-Jun-2001 with id (VSNTRNQTTNRSX*)

I honestly believe that Allison has a decent chance of regenerating, possibly about 50 to 55 percent chance. If no other weather system picks it up, things could get more interesting. Also, it seems many strong waves are coming off Africa. I am almost certain no developement of any Cape Verde storms will take place before mid-July, but if many strong waves continue to march off africa in August and September, we could have a number of Cape Verde storms later in the year
Something is brewing in the East Atlantic! (#15)
Posted by: SirCane Location: Pensacola, FL
Posted On 04:12PM 13-Jun-2001 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNWR*)

Check it out! It's very well organized and conditions are favorable!


to sircane (#16)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 04:58PM 13-Jun-2001 with id (VSNTRNQPNRQ*)

I did look at the visible and inrared picture of the atlantic. It does look fairly impressive and might have a chance to develope if this was august, and it was a bit farther north. However, sircane, you made a good observation.
posting opinions (#17)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 06:35PM 13-Jun-2001 with id (VSNTRNQTTNQPW*)

If Allison does move off the Carolina coast and regenerates, where will it go will multiple people voice there thoughts Thanks
reclassification (#18)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 06:36PM 13-Jun-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNXR*)

i've extrapolated out a path for allison, assuming current speed and direction.. allison should move offshore around wrightsville beach in four hours. for the last three hours or so, allison has been building up a convective core, much like danny did over eastern nc in '97. i'm guessing that the nhc will start issuing advisories at 11pm eastern, probably as a 25 or 30 kt depression. allison will easily have gale force winds tomorrow. looks like coastal flooding, beach erosion, and more inland freshwater flooding are going to be the headlines tomorrow.
eastward (#19)
Posted by: Alex K Location: San Antonio, TX
Posted On 07:01PM 13-Jun-2001 with id (VSNTRNQTTNQPW*)

It now appears that Allison''s remenants are moving east with almost no northward component!
I still say no (#20)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER) Location: tampa
Posted On 10:15PM 13-Jun-2001 with id (QRNWWNQTQNV*)

No she shouldnt become a storm again cause
of her Extratropical characteristics in her
now. She will be a gale center. Water temps
are near 78 but that wont harm her. Where she
goes will be eventually away from the US.
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