CFHC Talkback For News Story #44:
Newest Talkback: 10:12 PM 08-09 EDT

Tropical Depression #4 Forms off our Coast
11:08 AM EDT - 09 August 2000

Tropical Systems are known to be sometimes surprising...

This is a quick update to let you know that Tropical Depression 4 has indeed formed. Info now suggests that it may not landfall, however the weak steering winds and very slow movement make any such discussion dangerous. One model has it basically stalling just off the coast, and forming into Hurricane status, but staying OFFSHORE. However, it is much too early to be jumping to conclusions, as it is now just a weak surface low/depression. Until convection fires, this is pure speculation. The fact that it is currently drifting adds questions, and I'm doubting it getting much stronger than it currently is. But, it's worth noting.

Ugh, this one is going to be hard to watch being so close. NHC suggests that it may eventually move NE away from land before ever making landfall. Will it get close enough for us to see some effects? Probably, but nothing major. This is open for debate here.

We will post more as things come in.

Comments? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #5 (of 26 total)

TD#4 (#1)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:16AM 09-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQVV*)


I agree that this one is too close to call at this time. I wouldn't trust the models, either. They are saying the vortex has a good chance of staying to the ne and offshore, but, giving there predictions on Alberto, I prefer to watch IT rather than go with the models. JHMO, though. What do I know

Reporting (#2)
Posted by: Andy
Posted On 11:22AM 09-Aug-2000 with id (RPXNUXNSWNUP*)


I'm impressed with the timeliness and detail of the reporting on TD#4. This is great; congrats on a great site.

-Andy

Other Possibilities (#3)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 11:28AM 09-Aug-2000 with id (TNQWNRUPNU*)


The 10:00 a.m. weather discussion from NWS Tallahassee stated that they believe TD #4 will move into the Gulf before being affected by the trough. I would copy the post here, but I am having difficulty re-accessing the site. Anyway, interesting possibilities for alleviating the long-term drought that we still suffer from in Central Florida.

Colleen (#4)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:31AM 09-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNVW*)


I agree Clyde...funny how they believe that it will be swept out to sea, but Tampa has the highest strike probability at 18% in 72 hours. Now, I know that can change, however...it leads me to believe that even THEY are not that confident in the track. What do you think? Colleen

Here's the Comments From Tallahassee (#5)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 11:39AM 09-Aug-2000 with id (TNQWNRUPNU*)


Hi Colleen,

I haven't written here since Floyd last year (no web access). It's good to be back. Mike, the site is better than ever!

Here's the discussion from Tallahassee:

VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS TD#4 WELL PLACED
OFF EAST FL COAST WITH WEST DRIFT INDICATED. HOWEVER MODELS NOT
PICKING IT UP WELL...WITH EVEN ETA TAKING IT WELL N & WITH ONLY
PIECE OF ENERGY POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL FL. CURRENT TRENDS SHOULD TAKE
IT OVER CENTRAL FL THEN INTO GULF NEXT 24-36 HRS.

I think this reflects the uncertainty of forecasting a system that the models are not even intializing well, or at all.

2 important thoughts: (1) The affect of the Gulf Stream, and (2) the fact that TD #4 has slown to a drift. I think (guess?) that we will see a minimal TS Beryl in 24-36 hours very near the coast, but not quite making landfall. It should be interesting as long as we don't have a hurricane!

NWS/TALLAHASSEE (#6)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:40AM 09-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNVW*)


Clyde: I think this is what you were talking about, I was able to get into the site, although I will tell you it has been difficult all morning:

FXUS62 KTAE 091436
AFDTLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1040 AM EDT WED AUG 9 2000

ATTM FORECAST ON TRACK WITH OVERALL 30-40% POP COVERAGE OVER CWA. WILL SEE SEA BREEZE PENETRATION INHIBITED A BIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NW-N FLOW. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO HAVE LIS OF -5 TO -8...CAPES IN 3K RANGE...& PRECIP WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.7 INCHES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ENERGY NOW PUSHING INTO EASTERN GA WITH FLOW TO TAKE NEAR CWA THIS LATE AFTERNOON & THIS EVENING. RUC HAS THIS FEATURE & 700MB FLOW TO BRING IT SW. VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS TD#4 WELL PLACED
OFF EAST FL COAST WITH WEST DRIFT INDICATED. HOWEVER MODELS NOT PICKING IT UP WELL...WITH EVEN ETA TAKING IT WELL N & WITH ONLY PIECE OF ENERGY POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL FL. CURRENT TRENDS SHOULD TAKE IT OVER CENTRAL FL THEN INTO GULF NEXT 24-36 HRS. 12Z RUNS SHOULD BE BETTER. WILL ONLY TWEAK FORECAST ATTM. RECORD IN TLH IS 98 TODAY SO
NEAR RECORD WORDS LOOK GOOD.

Hope this helps: even the NWS forecasters don't have much faith in the models!!!



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