CFHC Talkback For News Story #44:
Newest Talkback: 10:12 PM 08-09 EDT

Tropical Depression #4 Forms off our Coast
11:08 AM EDT - 09 August 2000

Tropical Systems are known to be sometimes surprising...

This is a quick update to let you know that Tropical Depression 4 has indeed formed. Info now suggests that it may not landfall, however the weak steering winds and very slow movement make any such discussion dangerous. One model has it basically stalling just off the coast, and forming into Hurricane status, but staying OFFSHORE. However, it is much too early to be jumping to conclusions, as it is now just a weak surface low/depression. Until convection fires, this is pure speculation. The fact that it is currently drifting adds questions, and I'm doubting it getting much stronger than it currently is. But, it's worth noting.

Ugh, this one is going to be hard to watch being so close. NHC suggests that it may eventually move NE away from land before ever making landfall. Will it get close enough for us to see some effects? Probably, but nothing major. This is open for debate here.

We will post more as things come in.

Comments? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


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Displaying Talkbacks #6 - #10 (of 26 total)

NWS/TALLAHASSEE (#6)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:40AM 09-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNVW*)


Clyde: I think this is what you were talking about, I was able to get into the site, although I will tell you it has been difficult all morning:

FXUS62 KTAE 091436
AFDTLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1040 AM EDT WED AUG 9 2000

ATTM FORECAST ON TRACK WITH OVERALL 30-40% POP COVERAGE OVER CWA. WILL SEE SEA BREEZE PENETRATION INHIBITED A BIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NW-N FLOW. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO HAVE LIS OF -5 TO -8...CAPES IN 3K RANGE...& PRECIP WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.7 INCHES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ENERGY NOW PUSHING INTO EASTERN GA WITH FLOW TO TAKE NEAR CWA THIS LATE AFTERNOON & THIS EVENING. RUC HAS THIS FEATURE & 700MB FLOW TO BRING IT SW. VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS TD#4 WELL PLACED
OFF EAST FL COAST WITH WEST DRIFT INDICATED. HOWEVER MODELS NOT PICKING IT UP WELL...WITH EVEN ETA TAKING IT WELL N & WITH ONLY PIECE OF ENERGY POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL FL. CURRENT TRENDS SHOULD TAKE IT OVER CENTRAL FL THEN INTO GULF NEXT 24-36 HRS. 12Z RUNS SHOULD BE BETTER. WILL ONLY TWEAK FORECAST ATTM. RECORD IN TLH IS 98 TODAY SO
NEAR RECORD WORDS LOOK GOOD.

Hope this helps: even the NWS forecasters don't have much faith in the models!!!


Clyde (#7)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:42AM 09-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNVW*)


Great minds think alike!!! LOL!!!

TD4 (#8)
Posted by:
Bubba Location: Yeehaw Junction, Fl
Posted On 11:50AM 09-Aug-2000 with id (QSRNQUXNQUYNQRV*)


I think it'll rain some myself.

Watches (#9)
Posted by:
alan Location: orlando
Posted On 12:25PM 09-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)


Does it surprise anyone else that there hasn't been at least a tropical storm watch issued for the east coast of Florida. After all, the strike probabilities place an 18 percent chance of land fall at Fort Pierce and a 16 at Cocoa over the next 24 hours. The only higher places are to the west northwest of the storm's current location.
If it doesn't go north like the NHC believes, there could be a lot of people caught off guard if a strong tropical storm comes ashore during the middle of the night.

Alberto (#10)
Posted by: Chris
Posted On 01:05PM 09-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNRPQNXTNQ*)


Can someone explain in detail(i.e. not reiterate the NHC discussion) why Alberto is going to make a turn to the north. Just 2 days ago the 48 hr forecast was turning it west after the sheer died down.

TD Four Comments (#11)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 01:27PM 09-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQYW*)


Somebody asked why the NHC hasn't issued a TS watch for the FL east coast. Probably because they doubt it will reach TS strength or threaten the coast within 24 hours. They're probably fairly confident that its quasi-stationary status will keep it still long enough for the expected trough to pick it up. An 18% chance isn't much at all.

The trough pick-up isn't so clear to me...this is
a pretty shallow system; perhaps there's a *small*
chance it could slip under the trough. If the convection fires up more, however, things will get a little more concrete. Still, track forecasting isn't my forte--I'll go by the NHC's party line for now.


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