CFHC Talkback For News Story #44:
Newest Talkback: 07:28 PM 06-18 EDT

The Storm that Would not Die
10:26 PM EDT - 13 June 2001

The remnants of Allison are still haunting the Southeast US, near North/South Carolina. Regeneration is still a possibility, although somewhat unlikely. It will remain a fairly strong storm center regardless.

Flooding has happened from Texas to the Panhandle, with deadly consequences. This storm will be a memorable one for many, as the effects were spread across a fairly wide area, even though the storm itself never was more than a Tropical Storm.

Tropical systems, and even moreso hybrids like Allison, you always expect the unexpected and must not let your guard down. Water was the killer here from this terribly slow moving storm.

Otherwise there isn't much in the Atlantic other than a wave near the central part of it. The time of the year is not right for anything to come of that, however.


NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #9 - #29 (of 29 total)
I really don't want to comment three times in a row, but..... (#9)
Posted by: Alex K Location: San Antonio, Tx
Posted On 06:12PM 14-Jun-2001 with id (VSNTRNQTQNQVU*)

it appears that the center of Allison is almost fully off the coast. Feel free to agree or disagree with what I think i see. Also, if anyone can find a closer doppler radar for just north of Wilmington NC, please tell me the web site. Please post your thoughts. Thanks


sorry (#10)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 07:43PM 14-Jun-2001 with id (VSNTRNQTYNRRW*)

I mistook something on the radar for the center. The center is really still near the coast
no (#11)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER) Location: tampa
Posted On 09:39PM 14-Jun-2001 with id (QRNWWNQSXNTP*)

Still no,its always just a gale center since
Texas.
Allison along immediate coast (#12)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 10:33PM 14-Jun-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNVV*)

By looking at Radars out of NC the center is right on the coast and may be off the coast soon.
allison is a tease (#13)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 11:03PM 14-Jun-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNXT*)

swansboro.. thats the little coastal town just east of camp lejeune that allison's center has been camping over all evening. if the low drifts just a few miles south over onslow bay, or northeast to pamlico sound, or does anything to get just TEN or so miles offshore, it can come back some... but i doubt it will. the front approaching from the west should start drawing allison back inland or northward. maybe it'll start picking up strength in the approaching baroclinic zone, but not as a tropical system.

oh yeah, alex.. if you want radar sites, go to wunderground.com and look at nexrad. the one out of morehead city is the closest.
EDENTON ,NC (#14)
Posted by: NICK Location: ORLANDO FL
Posted On 03:19PM 15-Jun-2001 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNQXY*)

LOOKS LIKE HER CENTER IS RIGHT OVER EDENTON, NC AND THE STORMS ARE FIRING UP , SHES ALMOST AT THE COAST, WELL SEE WHAT HAPPENS. I WISH SHE WAS HERE WE CAN SURE USE ALL THE RAIN WE CAN GET
the end is near (#15)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 06:09PM 15-Jun-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNWY*)

allison has gone too far north to redevelop, and is still inland. pressure is 1007 mb by the last report from edenton. should start to merge with the approaching frontal system, move up the coast.
i'll be interested to see how the nhc best track looks when they post analyze the storm. allison was arguably a tropical storm when it crossed louisiana and mississippi, by structure, pressure (down to 1000 mb near picayune, ms, the lowest it ever went during the system's lifespan) and offshore gale force winds.
still NO (#16)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER) Location: tampa
Posted On 08:27PM 15-Jun-2001 with id (QRNWWNQSXNQR*)

Well like I said 10 days ago, allison will
move eastward to the midatlantic states very
slowly and not redevelop.I'm good, and get
a cookie. She is a gale hybrid low since texas
and will get caught up with the aproaching cold
front like someone else already indicated.

scottsvb
cookie (#17)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 02:31AM 16-Jun-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNXY*)

okay scott, good job. you foresaw allison's low nearing the virginia capes ten days before it happened, just like we all should have.
anyhow, looks like we're back to the usual june boredom, once allison fizzles. not many junes have had more than one, and those that have were usually slow seasons. gray says this one will be above average, so we could be looking at a month of nothing.
LOL Hank Frank , How have you been (#18)
Posted by: Mike
Posted On 09:38AM 16-Jun-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPSNVV*)

Hey Hank Frank how have you been these day's, Have not had the pleasure to chat with you this season yet, hope to see you pop over at East Coast again, I really enjoyed talking with you last season during Hurricane Gordon. You make some really great points during the season. Well just really wanted to say hello to all here at CFHC and what a great job they are doing here, keep it up all of you. Have a safe Hurricane season and keep them posts coming.
Mike
Good to see people (#19)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER) Location: tampa
Posted On 11:41AM 16-Jun-2001 with id (QRNWWNQSYNQWR*)

Good to see all the people back in here
like Mike from east coast tropical,hank-frank,collen, and many more. Does anyone feel we might get a #2 storm by july 4? Chances are 40%.
the other hank (#20)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 12:32AM 17-Jun-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNQPT*)

hey mike.. i havent done a chat w/ anyone before, i usually just post. i think there's another guy who goes by just hank. luck with finding him, bet he's waiting for something meaner than allison to spin up. might as well ask, anybody know the link to gary gray's hurricane page? i can find millenium weather, but not the page from last year, where he posted all of his thoughts. did he change it? if that site is still up, i could use the link.
allison's leftovers look neat tonight. the tease is getting old, though. send us barry.
got tha link (#21)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 03:19AM 17-Jun-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNQPT*)

dang.. its late. found that link i was looking for, finally. just checked the conditions at ocean city, pressure down to 1005, east winds at 15kt.. center hasnt passed yet, as of 3am. the doppler radial velocity shows winds around 45 kt above the sfc.. if the center gets offshore, they could work down to ocean level, give new england some gale warnings and such. that little bugger is still hanging on, going into its 13th day of existence.
Sorry Hank Frank (#22)
Posted by: Mike (http://www.angelfire.com/fl4/eastcoasttropicalwea/ectwp.htm)
Posted On 09:06AM 17-Jun-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNRPW*)

Im sorry I thought you were someone that I chatted with last season at my site, Gee what a dumb bunny I am, well I have also enjoyed reading your posts this season as well. Keep up the good work and maybe we can chat one day anyway. Im in my chat room all the time, always happy to chat with people during the season. I left the link to the site with this post so if you want to come over and just make some good conversation you are always welcome. Scott good job with your site, checked it out the other day, Nice call with the Allison system.
Mike
Allison Gone!! Tropical Wave Approaching Carribean?? (#23)
Posted by: Mark Location: Ft Myers Fla
Posted On 12:44PM 17-Jun-2001 with id (QRNWWNQSRNQUU*)

Allison continues to dump heavy amounts of rain over the northeast and midatlantic states but its finally moving out to sea. An area about 48 hours east of the caribean continues to hold together and is moving w-nw. There is no sign of circulation but conditions are not all unfavorable for it to hold its own as it it enters the caribean. Forcast models take this wave into the central caribean durring the comming week as a upper high builds aloft moving in tandem with this wave. This area needs to be monitored over the next week but its nothing to worry about right now.
no problem (#24)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 02:56PM 17-Jun-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNQQT*)

yeah mike ill come chat sometime. dont expect me to say anything bright though. i tend to overestimate the chances a storm has. probably the most accurate posters here, im my opinion.. jj and ed dunham. neither had much to say about allison, but they were on the money often last year.
allison is represented by that little L on maps, so i guess it isnt fully extratropical yet. looks like the rich kennedy types out on martha's vineyard get a blustery evening. the allison system has 41 deaths attributed to it (some probably indirect); thats an ominous start to the season.

Wave Coming Off Africa (#25)
Posted by: Steve H
Posted On 09:35PM 17-Jun-2001 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNQYY*)

TWD at 8:05 made mention of a strong cyclone that will be coming off the African Coast by 00Z 19 June (i think probably sooner). Unusual for them to mention a system when it's still over the continent. They mentioned it as a 900 - 750 mb system. So it has some strong characteristics coming off. Not just a bunch of T'Storms looking for low pressure to happen. Conditions should be favorable during the next few days. Let's watch. Cheers!!
going cold (#26)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 11:56PM 17-Jun-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNQPX*)

theres nothing tropical going on anywhere in the world, with allison's remnants extratropical. anything coming off africa this time of year is a snowball in hell. hell does freeze over sometimes, though. let me know when they give it a dvorak classification, then i'll watch it.
Disagree (#27)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 12:58PM 18-Jun-2001 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

There are plenty of things tropical going on in the world currently. An INVEST in the EPAC that looks to be near TD status, three disturbances in the western pacific and one in the Indian ocean. The only reason I mention the storm over Africa is because it was given attention by the Tropical Weather Discussion, and that is unusual for them to mention a disturbance over land. The only thing of interest in the Atlantic today is the wave approaching the southern Windward Islands, which, as Mark mentioned, has some potential for development during the latter part of this week. Cheers!!
ya know what i mean (#28)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 02:33PM 18-Jun-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNYU*)

yeah i know man, just as far as things go its pretty inactive right now. there is seldom a time when you cant see a disturbance nrl monterrey is tracking, but with allison gone everything looks dead in comparison. all that stuff you mention is true.. but in the end, the law of averages dominates. its unlikely anything will develop for a while. now, i have spoken, watch your disturbances go ballistic.
Tropical Wave Approaching The Carribean!! (#29)
Posted by: Mark Location: Ft Myers Fla
Posted On 03:28PM 18-Jun-2001 with id (QRNWWNQSSNXV*)

Conditions still are somewhat favorable for this system for at least another 24 hours. Satellite pictures are now showing a weak circulation and the storms have become more concentrated over the last 24 hours. Pressures are not falling so any development will be slow to occur. Forcasts are still pointing to a development of an upper high moving tandem with this wave over the next 3-6 days so it still needs to be watched. The most negative feature is upper winds to its west are strong so unless this weakens development is not likely.
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