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CFHC Talkback For News Story #45: Newest Talkback: 01:04 AM 07-27 EDT

Is Something About to Wake Up?
11:49 AM EDT - 26 July 1999

It may be that the quiet period is starting to end. This morning we have three systems worth talking about.

1. The storm north of Puerto Rico. This system has a rather high surface pressure right now to be forming into anything significant in the near future. However it is worth watching.
Chance of Forming Scale:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
           [------*---------------]

2. Number 2 has the best chance of all to form and looks like it may within a couple days. There are some negative factors in this area as well that could hold it back. But this is definitely looking the best of the three.
Chance of Forming Scale:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
           [-------------*--------]

3. Number 3 is trailing behind number 2, but also has a chance to develop. It's future may depend on what happens with #2. Right now it's less likely anything will happen with it.
Chance of Forming Scale:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
           [-------*--------------]

As for future tracks of these systems, it's a bit too early to say for me.

Watch out, though, I think our quiet period is on it's way out.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Weather Channel Sat Image

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #5 (of 5 total)

Systems in the Atlantic (#1)
Posted by: Colleen
Posted On 12:00PM 26-Jul-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNUT*)

I think the time of quiet is just about over. I also think system #2 is the one we should be really keeping our eyes on, as I do believe the pressure dropped (1 mb) today from 1024 to 1023. I know this is still relatively high; however, it might be something worth keeping an eye on. And who knows what will happen down the road? I am going to keep a very close eye on it, as we are going to Hilton Head Island, SC for vacation next Saturday. Gulp.!!!

waiting game (#2)
Posted by: clyde w
Posted On 01:25PM 26-Jul-1999 with id (TNQWNRUPNU*)

I like the chances on the system north of puerto rico. I believe this was the remains of a low level swirl that crossed the atlantic late last week. Pressures are high though, so we'll have to wait and see. The atlantic systems look much more promising than in the last couple of weeks, but I agree with Mike that we're still a week or two away.

Atlantic heating up ? (#3)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 06:15PM 26-Jul-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNUT*)

As i said in some of the last postings that the sea temps had fallen off, SST's are starting to rebound now off the African coast as expected , however it is still a bit to early to make a call on the waves out in the atlantic at this time, we still are lacking deep tropical moisture over the atlantic waters, untill that changes tropical storm formation will be hard to come by, however on water vapor the deep tropical moisture is starting to make a come back but im not sure if it will be in time, the wave would respond very nicely it that would be the case, So in a nut shell keep an eye on the water vapor loop the next couple day's that should tell the story, untill than it's a waiting game.

Wave North of Puerto Rico (#4)
Posted by: Colleen
Posted On 08:41PM 26-Jul-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNQYV*)

I noticed earlier tonight that it looked as though this wave had a bit of circulation to it. What do you think?

Maybe (#5)
Posted by: Vince Hall
Posted On 09:04PM 26-Jul-1999 with id (RPXNRUQNQPXNVX*)

I see the point about the moisture levels and SSTs, but I think this has a better chance at devlopment than you are hinting at. I could be wrong..

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