CFHC Talkback For News Story #46:
Newest Talkback: 11:57 PM 07-29 EDT

Watching a Single System
08:48 AM EDT - 27 July 1999

The area talked about yesterday (2) continues to move across the Atlantic into an area that is neither favorable nor unfavorable for development (probably slightly more on the unfavorable side) and won't develop if at all for a few more days. It's worth watching for sure.

The other two systems yesterday, well #1 hasn't done anything impressive so the chances are even lower. And #3 and #2 more or less merged into one wave. The chances would have been better if they remained separated.

There is another wave coming off the African coast, but it's too early to say if it will hold together.

Bottom line, system #2 from yesterday is the only thing that has a chance right now. If it does develop, it won't be for a few more days. It has quite a bit of hostile area to get through. So the chances on this one have dropped below 5 on the scale.

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #2 (of 2 total)
A wave With No Hope (#1)
Posted by: Mike anderson
Posted On 08:41PM 28-Jul-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNUW*)

The three systems sailing along in the atlantic have all but lost there convection , two waves merged ending their possible development stage, It is as i last posted that the deep tropical moisture is still lacking in the deep tropical atlantic, As i have been going over the models the TUT in the Atlantic seems to be hanging in there, this is the hostile point in the atlantic that most waves are running into, the TUT is forecasted to begin to move NE this will allow the waves to hold their own in the comeing day's ahead , last is the SST's they are now starting to come around and moveing closer to the African coast , this could lead to a big next week as loop's are displaying waves over central Africa , we will have to wait till they make it to the African coast , im expecting them to hold together better at that time, thats it for now ill post again later.
Quiet start (#2)
Posted by: Jean-Claude Huc
Posted On 07:57PM 29-Jul-1999 with id (QVTNQSXNSQNRUP*)

Well.I'am going into the discussion.I'am living in GUADELOUPE and beg your pardon for my language!Since BETSY in 1956(43years ago)i'am watching hurricanes and got an enormous data over them.I'am also an official weather watcher in relation with the weather office of Guadeloupe.
I consider that the real season began around the 10 of August.Yes the 1969 and 1992 were late seasons begeanin's.Remenber 1928,a few storms,but the Great of 8-20 september a category 5 left a lot of devastations and deaths along the Carribean and Florida.1950 did not begin after the first week of August and was an incredible season.1984 saw ARTHUR the first only the 31 of August with 12 named storms in total.1988,Alberto the 5 of August,then 12 named storms.
The problem this year,despite of la NINA,is the lack of activity in the CArribean...I have no response...
But remenber all folk's,October 1780 the "GREATEST HURRICANE",deadliest in the history,and MITCH October 1998,the second deadliest!!!
Since the last isn't over,you never can said"A quiet season"!!!We do have a great humility in front of the nature!!!!!!
I do appreciate comments.Thank's
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