CFHC Talkback For News Story #48:
Newest Talkback: 06:52 PM 08-12 EDT

Decline in Activity
06:22 AM EDT - 12 August 2000

Most of the storms we've been following the last few days have failed to get organized. The one near the Yucatan did what I thought, it looked good but its position (relative to land) just didn't let anything happen. The former TD#4 and Cape Hatteras waves would have formed days ago if they were to do anything so nothing much happened there, and even the wave off Africa isn't looking too good this morning. (Too far north too soon)

If you really want to make a stretch, the only thing that could develop is the east Atlantic storm. The area east of the SE US remains unorganized (still) and also would be a stretch to consider it for development.

In fact, there is nothing that looks like it will develop this weekend.

However, Hurricane Alberto is a category 3 storm now, and looks very impressive. It's moving northeast toward the central Atlantic. I'm betting it will go extratropical (strong extratropical) and actually affect Europe in some way later on. Alberto is also notable for its extremely large eye. Very unusual for an Atlantic System.

Comments or Questions? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #9 (of 9 total)

Don't Get Too Comfy (#1)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 08:09AM 12-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNRPV*)

Is wouldn't get to comfortable with any of these systems dying out just yet...because just when you think it's safe to outside again......j/k..actually, some of the models are developing the Yucatan system and bringing it Northward in the next two days or so. I would just watch and see. It's still early in the season, and I doubt if we will go with just one named storm until Nov. 30th.

BOC still alive! (#2)
Posted by: DrHurricane
Posted On 09:45AM 12-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNVR*)

I see a little convection there this morning ans some rotation, give it 12 hours and we may have TD #5. The Gulf is HOT!!!

Points to Ponder (#3)
Posted by:
Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 11:59AM 12-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNTS*)

The system near 39N 65W at 15Z may have briefly reached tropical storm strength earlier this morning, however because of strong southwesterly shear, most of the convection is northeast of the center of circulation. NHC notes that it will soon become extratropical - which sort of implies that for the moment it is still tropical. There was a 12Z ship report southeast of the center which reported sustained winds of 35kts and a slp of 1009.8mb. Sometimes Dr Gray's forecasts are better than the seasonal statistics indicate.

Other points of interest in the next few days (15Z approximate positions): 24N 91W (the Gulf system); 18N 85W (the brewing grounds); 24N 72W (southern nexus of the Atlantic trof); 16N 67W (a real sleeper); and 14N 37W (eastern Atlantic wave). The system in the eastern Atlantic will enter a more favorable environment, both for sea temps and upper winds, in a couple of days, but given the climatology of this season so far, it wouldn't surprise me to see earlier development.

GOM (#4)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 01:30PM 12-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNTT*)

Great observations Ed! Lots of potential areas for development. The 16:15 Z vis loop shows the SW Gulf starting to crank a circulation (and associated convection) at approx. 93 W, 13 N. Slow drift NW. This area seems to be where low-level circulation wants to focus. Now this should develop, and if it does where does it go? Get caught up in the SW flow and head NE, or continue to the NW? Or, as we have seen in the past with SW'erly flow across the gulf, a continuous lateral of the energy to the northeast, which usually is more common in the fall, but the trough has dug pretty far south for this time of year. Any thoughts out there? Other areas are also getting interesting, the Cape verde wave (west of it) which I believe will develop and a new wave off the coast of africa which looks healthy. Funny you mentioned the E. Caribbean ed, 67W, 15 N, not a lot of convection there but something to watch. Feedback...Cheers!

Correction (#5)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 02:45PM 12-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNUY*)

The GOM system was Near 23N, not 13 N as I prevoiusly posted my latitudes mixed up jumping from east atlantic to GOM

Posted by: Mike (
Posted On 03:40PM 12-Aug-2000 with id (VTNQRNQPUNQVY*)

The system in the bay of Campeche is starting to become much better organized with each passing hour, this feature is in an area or rather low wind shear with evidence of a cyclonic circulation center on metsat imagery. I would not be at all surprised to see the system upgraded to tropical depression status in the next advisory, the system should reach Depression status soon if it has not already. I am however concerned with the trough that has come down from the north, this could instigate more of a northward component to this developing system no matter how AVN is initializing it at this point. I have placed a tropical cyclone formation alert on my site if any of you care to view this the URL is listed with this post above my name. In short look for this system to yield the name BERYL, as for track I think it would be safe to say that all interests along the gulf coast should begin to monitor this developing tropical cyclone.

Mike..... (#7)
Posted by: Pensacolian
Posted On 05:40PM 12-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNTS*)

Your URL did not work, I live in Pensacola, FL and I need to keep up to date. Thanks

Pensacolian (#8)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 06:33PM 12-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNRQR*)

There is a link here under Storm Links that will get you to Mike's site. Regards, Colleen

Thanks Colleen (#9)
Posted by: Pensacolian
Posted On 06:52PM 12-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQWX*)


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